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Sequential nonparametric estimation of controlled multivariate regression 受控多元回归的序列非参数估计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2129690
S. Efromovich
Abstract The article considers an adaptive sequential nonparametric estimation of a multivariate regression with assigned mean integrated squared error (MISE) and minimax mean stopping time when the estimator matches performance of an oracle knowing all nuisance parameters and functions. It is known that the problem has no solution if regression belongs to a Sobolev class of differentiable functions. What if an underlying regression is smoother, say, analytic? It is shown that in this case it is possible to match performance of the oracle. Furthermore, similar to the classical Stein solution for a parameter estimation, a two-stage sequential procedure solves the problem. The proposed regression estimator for the first stage, based on a sample with fixed sample size, is of interest on its own, and a thought-provoking environmental example of reducing potent greenhouse gas emission by an anaerobic digestion system is used to discuss a number of important topics for small samples.
摘要本文考虑了一个具有分配均方积分误差(MISE)和最小最大平均停止时间的多元回归的自适应序列非参数估计,当估计量匹配已知所有干扰参数和函数的预言机的性能时。众所周知,如果回归属于可微函数的Sobolev类,则问题没有解。如果一个潜在的回归是更平滑的,比如说,分析的呢?结果表明,在这种情况下,可以匹配oracle的性能。此外,类似于参数估计的经典Stein解,两阶段序列过程解决了这个问题。第一阶段提出的基于固定样本量样本的回归估计器本身就很有意义,并且利用厌氧消化系统减少温室气体排放的发人深省的环境示例来讨论小样本的一些重要主题。
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引用次数: 0
Bounded risk per unit cost index constraint for sequential estimation of the mean in a two-parameter exponential distribution 双参数指数分布均值序列估计的单位成本指数有界风险约束
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-09-13 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2074453
E. Mahmoudi, Zahra Nemati, Ashkan Khalifeh
Abstract In this article, the two-stage sequential sampling procedure is proposed to estimate the mean of an exponential distribution under the modified square error loss function. The main aim of the article is to consider the associated risk per unit cost function by bounding it from above with a fixed preassigned positive number, ω. We provide the exact distribution of the total sample size, explicit formulas for the mathematical expectation of the rth power of the total sample size, the expected value and mean squared error of the maximum likelihood estimate of the scale, and mean parameters of the exponential distribution under the two-stage sequential procedure. The performances of the proposed methodologies are investigated with the help of simulations. In the end, we supplement with extensive sets of data analysis via computer simulations, validating that the two-stage sequential method performs very well. Finally, using a real data set, the procedure is clearly illustrated.
摘要本文提出了在修正的平方误差损失函数下估计指数分布均值的两阶段序列抽样方法。本文的主要目的是通过将单位成本函数与固定的预先分配的正数ω从上面进行绑定来考虑相关的风险。我们给出了总样本量的精确分布,总样本量四次方的数学期望的显式公式,标度最大似然估计的期望值和均方误差,以及两阶段序列过程下指数分布的平均参数。在仿真的帮助下,对所提出的方法的性能进行了研究。最后,我们通过计算机模拟补充了大量的数据分析,验证了两阶段序列方法的性能。最后,使用真实的数据集,清楚地说明了该过程。
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引用次数: 1
An optimal purely sequential strategy with asymptotic second-order properties: Applications from statistical inference and data analysis 具有渐近二阶性质的最优纯序列策略:在统计推断和数据分析中的应用
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-09-13 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2096900
Srawan Kumar Bishnoi, N. Mukhopadhyay
Abstract We develop a new class of purely sequential methodologies under an assumption that the population distribution belongs to a location-scale family. Both asymptotic first-order and second-order theories are put forward with substantial generality under a big and unified tent that successfully lead to a broad set of illustrations. After we identify an appropriately defined optimal strategy under this unified structure, we introduce applications that handle a variety of interesting inference problems. These are associated with, but not limited to, the following areas: (a) the fixed-width confidence interval (FWCI) estimation, (b) the minimum risk point estimation (MRPE), (c) the fixed-size confidence region (FSCR) estimation, (d) multiple comparisons, and (e) selecting the best normal treatment (StBNT). In illustrations (a)–(d), we have highlighted a number of choices of population distributions. Some illustrations are accompanied with data analyses.
摘要在假设人口分布属于一个位置尺度的家族的情况下,我们提出了一类新的纯序列方法。渐近一阶和二阶理论都是在一个大而统一的框架下提出的,具有相当的普遍性,并成功地给出了一组广泛的例证。在我们确定了这个统一结构下适当定义的最优策略之后,我们将介绍处理各种有趣推理问题的应用程序。这些与但不限于以下领域相关:(a)固定宽度置信区间(FWCI)估计,(b)最小风险点估计(MRPE),(c)固定大小置信区间(FSCR)估计,以及(d)多重比较,以及(e)选择最佳正态治疗(StBNT)。在插图(a)-(d)中,我们强调了人口分布的一些选择。一些插图附有数据分析。
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引用次数: 0
Monitoring a Bernoulli process subject to gradual changes in the success rates of a sequence of Bernoulli random variables 监测受一系列伯努利随机变量的成功率逐渐变化影响的伯努利过程
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-09-13 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2092137
Marlo Brown
Abstract We look at a sequence of Bernoulli random variables where the success rates change from θ 1 to θ 2. We will assume that both the success rates before and after the change are known. We also assume that this change does not happen abruptly but gradually over a period of time η where η is known. We calculate the probability that the change has started and completed. We also look at optimal stopping rules assuming that there is a cost for a false alarm and a cost per time unit to stop early.
我们研究了一个伯努利随机变量序列,其成功率从θ 1到θ 2变化。我们将假设改变前后的成功率都是已知的。我们还假设这种变化不是突然发生的,而是在一段时间内逐渐发生的。我们计算变更已经开始和完成的概率。我们还研究了最优停车规则,假设存在假警报的成本和提前停车的单位时间成本。
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引用次数: 0
Patient-specific dose finding in seamless phase I/II clinical trials 无缝I/II期临床试验中的患者特异性剂量发现
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-09-13 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2105361
M. Alam, Shantonu Islam Shanto
Abstract This article incorporates a covariate to determine the optimum dose in a seamless phase I/II clinical trial. A binary covariate and its interaction effect are assumed to keep the method simple. Each patient’s outcome is assumed to be trinomial, and the continuation ratio model is utilized to model the dose–response data. The Bayesian approach estimates parameters of the dose–response model. Eight plausible dose–response scenarios are investigated to check the proposed methodology. A simulation study shows that covariate consideration can enhance the identification of the optimum dose when it is appropriate to do.
本文采用协变量来确定无缝I/II期临床试验的最佳剂量。假设二元协变量及其相互作用使方法简单。假设每个患者的预后为三项式,并采用延续比模型对剂量-反应数据进行建模。贝叶斯方法估计剂量-反应模型的参数。研究了八种可能的剂量反应情景,以检验所提出的方法。一项模拟研究表明,协变量考虑可以在适当的时候增强对最佳剂量的识别。
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引用次数: 0
Sequential change-point detection for skew normal distribution 偏态正态分布的序列变化点检测
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-09-13 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2108546
Peiyao Wang, Wei Ning
Abstract In this article, we propose a modified max-cumulative sum (CUSUM) procedure for detecting changes in parameters of skew normal distribution. The corresponding false alarms frequency and the postchange detection delay are investigated. Asymptotic behaviors of detection delay and theoretical optimality of the detection procedure have been established. Simulations have been conducted to show the performance of the proposed method and compare it to the other existing methods including CUSUM. Real data are given to illustrate the detection procedure.
摘要本文提出了一种改进的最大累积和(CUSUM)方法来检测偏态正态分布参数的变化。研究了相应的虚警频率和后变检测延迟。建立了检测延迟的渐近行为和检测过程的理论最优性。通过仿真验证了所提方法的性能,并与包括CUSUM在内的其他现有方法进行了比较。给出了实际数据来说明检测过程。
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引用次数: 0
Online score statistics for detecting clustered change in network point processes 用于检测网络积分过程中的聚集性变化的在线分数统计
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-06-16 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2164307
Rui Zhang, Haoyun Wang, Yao Xie
Abstract We consider online monitoring of the network event data to detect local changes in a cluster when the affected data stream distribution shifts from one point process to another with different parameters. Specifically, we are interested in detecting a change point that causes a shift of the underlying data distribution that follows a multivariate Hawkes process with exponential decay temporal kernel, whereby the Hawkes process is considered to account for spatiotemporal correlation between observations. The proposed detection procedure is based on scan score statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistic, which enables the self-normalizing property and facilitates the approximation of the instantaneous false alarm probability and the average run length. When detecting a change in the Hawkes process with nonvanishing self-excitation, the procedure does not require estimating the postchange network parameter while assuming the temporal decay parameter, which enjoys computational efficiency. We further present an efficient procedure to accurately determine the false discovery rate via importance sampling, as validated by numerical examples. Using simulated and real stock exchange data, we show the effectiveness of the proposed method in detecting change while enjoying computational efficiency.
摘要当受影响的数据流分布从一个点进程转移到另一个具有不同参数的点进程时,我们考虑对网络事件数据进行在线监测,以检测集群中的局部变化。具体而言,我们感兴趣的是检测一个变化点,该变化点导致底层数据分布的变化,该变化遵循具有指数衰减时间核的多变量霍克斯过程,从而霍克斯过程被认为是观测之间时空相关性的原因。所提出的检测过程是基于扫描分数统计的。我们导出了统计量的渐近分布,它实现了自归一化性质,并有助于近似瞬时虚警概率和平均运行长度。当用非零自激检测霍克斯过程中的变化时,该过程不需要估计变化后的网络参数,同时假设时间衰减参数,这具有计算效率。我们进一步提出了一种通过重要性抽样准确确定错误发现率的有效方法,并通过数值例子进行了验证。利用模拟和真实的证券交易所数据,我们展示了所提出的方法在检测变化方面的有效性,同时享受了计算效率。
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引用次数: 0
A new formulation of minimum risk fixed-width confidence interval (MRFWCI) estimation problems for a normal mean with illustrations and simulations: Applications to air quality data 正态均值最小风险固定宽度置信区间(MRFWCI)估计问题的一个新公式及其示例和模拟:在空气质量数据中的应用
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2070214
N. Mukhopadhyay, Swathi Venkatesan
Abstract Research on classical fixed-width confidence interval (FWCI) estimation problems for a normal mean when the variance remains unknown have steadily moved along under a zero-one loss function. On the other hand, minimum risk point estimation (MRPE) problems have grown largely under a squared error loss function plus sampling cost. However, the FWCI problems customarily do not take into account any sampling cost in their formulations. This fundamental difference between the two treatments has led the literature on the FWCI and MRPE problems to grow in multiple directions in their own separate ways from one another. In this article, we introduce a new formulation combining both MRPE and FWCI methodologies with desired asymptotic first-order (Theorems 2.1–2.2) and asymptotic second-order characteristics (Theorem 2.3) under a single unified structure, allowing us to develop a genuine minimum risk fixed-width confidence interval (MRFWCI) estimation strategy. Fruitful ideas are proposed by incorporating illustrations from purely sequential and other multistage MRFWCI problems with an explicit presence of a cost function incurred due to sampling. We supplement the general theory and methodology by means of illustrations and analyses from simulated data along with applications to air quality data.
摘要方差未知时正态均值的经典固定宽度置信区间(FWCI)估计问题的研究在零一损失函数下稳步发展。另一方面,在平方误差损失函数加上采样成本的情况下,最小风险点估计(MRPE)问题在很大程度上增加了。然而,FWCI问题通常在其配方中不考虑任何采样成本。这两种治疗方法之间的根本差异导致FWCI和MRPE问题的文献以各自独立的方式向多个方向发展。在本文中,我们引入了一种新的公式,将MRPE和FWCI方法与期望的渐近一阶(定理2.1–2.2)和渐近二阶特性(定理2.3)结合在一个统一结构下,使我们能够开发出真正的最小风险固定宽度置信区间(MRFWCI)估计策略。通过结合纯序列和其他多级MRFWCI问题的说明,提出了富有成效的想法,其中明确存在由于采样而产生的成本函数。我们通过对模拟数据的说明和分析以及对空气质量数据的应用来补充一般理论和方法。
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引用次数: 0
Sequential common change detection, isolation, and estimation in multiple poisson processes 顺序公共变化检测,隔离,和估计在多个泊松过程
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2043054
Yanhong Wu, W. Wu
Abstract In this article, motivated by detecting the occurrence of an epidemic when the arrival rates of patients increase in a portion of M panels or detecting the deterioration of a system composed of M independent components that causes an increase in failure rates in a portion of components, we consider the detection of a common change when M independent Poisson processes are monitored simultaneously where only a portion of the processes have rate increases after the change time. M individual cumulative sum (CUSUM) processes and Shiryaev-Roberts (S-R) processes are calculated recursively in parallel at each pooled arrival time. A systematic procedure is proposed by using the sum of M S-R processes as the detection process for a common change. After the detection, the M individual CUSUM processes are used to isolate the changed panels with false discovery rate (FDR) control and then the medians of the change time estimates from each individual CUSUM process or S-R process based on the isolated panels are used to estimate the common change time. The model can be generalized to different prechange rates, jittered change time, and unknown postchange rates.
在这篇文章中,当患者到达率在M组的一部分中增加时检测流行病的发生,或者检测由M个独立组件组成的系统的恶化导致部分组件的故障率增加时,我们考虑在同时监测M个独立泊松过程时检测一个共同变化,其中只有一部分过程在变化时间后率增加。M个单独的累积和(CUSUM)进程和Shiryaev-Roberts (S-R)进程在每个汇集的到达时间递归地并行计算。采用M - S-R过程的和作为共同变化的检测过程,提出了一种系统的过程。检测后,使用M个单独的CUSUM过程来隔离具有错误发现率(FDR)控制的变化面板,然后使用基于隔离面板的每个单独CUSUM过程或S-R过程的变化时间估计的中值来估计共同的变化时间。该模型可以推广到不同的预变化率、抖动变化时间和未知的后变化率。
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引用次数: 2
Design and performance evaluation in Kiefer-Weiss problems when sampling from discrete exponential families 离散指数族抽样时Kiefer-Weiss问题的设计与性能评价
IF 0.8 4区 数学 Q4 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-03-26 DOI: 10.1080/07474946.2022.2109673
A. Novikov, Fahil Farkhshatov
Abstract In this article, we deal with problems of testing hypotheses in the framework of sequential statistical analysis. The main concern is the optimal design and performance evaluation of sampling plans in the Kiefer-Weiss problems. For the case of observations following a discrete exponential family, we provide algorithms for optimal design in the modified Kiefer-Weiss problem and obtain formulas for evaluating their performance, calculating operating characteristic function, average sample number, and some related characteristics. These formulas cover, as a particular case, sequential probability ratio tests (SPRTs) and their truncated versions, as well as optimal finite-horizon sequential tests. On the basis of the developed algorithms we propose a method of construction of optimal tests and their performance evaluation for the original Kiefer-Weiss problem. All algorithms are implemented as functions in the R programming language and can be downloaded from https://github.com/tosinabase/Kiefer-Weiss, where the code for the binomial, Poisson, and negative binomial distributions is readily available. Finally, we make numerical comparisons of the Kiefer-Weiss solution with the SPRT and the fixed-sample-size test having the same levels of the error probabilities.
摘要在这篇文章中,我们讨论了在序列统计分析的框架下检验假设的问题。主要关注的是Kiefer-Weiss问题中采样计划的优化设计和性能评估。对于离散指数族观测的情况,我们提供了改进的Kiefer-Weiss问题的优化设计算法,并获得了评估其性能、计算操作特征函数、平均样本数和一些相关特征的公式。作为一种特殊情况,这些公式涵盖了序列概率比检验(SPRT)及其截断版本,以及最优有限时域序列检验。在所开发算法的基础上,我们提出了一种构造最优测试的方法,并对原始Kiefer-Weiss问题进行了性能评估。所有算法都以R编程语言中的函数形式实现,可以从https://github.com/tosinabase/Kiefer-Weiss,其中二项式、泊松和负二项式分布的代码很容易获得。最后,我们对Kiefer-Weiss解和SPRT以及具有相同错误概率水平的固定样本量检验进行了数值比较。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Sequential Analysis-Design Methods and Applications
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