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Hurricane Vulnerability and Constrained Choices among Mobile Home Park Residents in South Florida 南佛罗里达州移动家园公园居民的飓风脆弱性和受限选择
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0122.1
Felicia Casanova, Shivangi Prasad, Daniela Bermudez Garolera, Cameron Riopelle, Justin Stoler
South Florida experiences some of the highest coastal hurricane vulnerability in the United States. Mobile home communities in south Florida are particularly vulnerable to hurricanes due to the weaker structural integrity of the home or land and a mix of structural and sociodemographic factors. A mixed-methods study was conducted to assess hurricane risk perceptions, experiences, and decision-making among permanent mobile home park (MHP) residents in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. Return-by-mail surveys were distributed in July 2016 after several years of nominal hurricane activity in south Florida (and before Hurricane Matthew’s formation in September 2016), and focus groups were conducted at MHPs in May 2018, eight months after Hurricane Irma’s September 2017 landfall. Quantitative analysis of 44 in-person and 57 return-by-mail survey responses revealed that respondents tended to be older, retired, or unemployed and had modest levels of education, with many expressing forms of social- and structural-level hurricane risk before Hurricane Matthew. Qualitative analysis of six focus group discussions conducted after Hurricane Irma revealed that the constraints and vulnerabilities experienced by residents coalesced into several primary themes related to preparation, evacuation, assistance, stress and anxiety, tree concerns, and recovery. Participants specifically highlighted their concerns about tree hazards, damages, and maintenance issues arising before, during, and after hurricanes in MHPs. These results build on the scholarship on hurricane risk by underscoring the structural and social vulnerability of residents living in MHPs that constrain building resilience, adaptive capacity, community restoration efforts, and advocating for policy changes.This study aims to understand local hurricane risk perceptions, experiences, and vulnerabilities among residents of mobile home parks after a decade-long hurricane drought in south Florida and also to understand the barriers residents faced after a major hurricane. A hurricane drought is critical to study because it can erode individual and community-level preparedness. Residents of mobile home parks may experience more flooding, higher winds, tornadoes, and other dangers during hurricanes. Residents also face county-, neighborhood-, and household-level structural vulnerabilities that restrict their options related to hurricane preparedness, safety during a storm, and resilience in its aftermath. Our study uses various forms of data collection to obtain insights from permanent residents of mobile home parks in south Florida. In addition, it discusses the social and economic disadvantages and opportunities that policy makers can address in climate change risk management.
南佛罗里达州是美国海岸飓风脆弱性最高的地区之一。佛罗里达州南部的流动房屋社区特别容易受到飓风的影响,这是由于房屋或土地的结构完整性较弱,以及结构和社会人口因素的混合。进行了一项混合方法研究,以评估布劳沃德县和迈阿密戴德县永久移动家园公园(MHP)居民对飓风风险的认知、经验和决策。2016年7月,在佛罗里达州南部经历了几年的名义飓风活动之后(在2016年9月飓风马修形成之前),分发了邮寄回复调查,并于2018年5月,即飓风“伊尔玛”2017年9月登陆八个月后,在MHP进行了重点小组调查。对44份亲自调查和57份邮寄调查回复的定量分析显示,受访者往往年龄较大、退休或失业,受教育程度适中,其中许多人表达了飓风马修之前的社会和结构层面飓风风险。对飓风“伊尔玛”后进行的六次焦点小组讨论进行的定性分析显示,居民所经历的限制和脆弱性整合为几个主要主题,涉及准备、疏散、援助、压力和焦虑、树木问题和恢复。与会者特别强调了他们对MHP飓风之前、期间和之后出现的树木危害、损坏和维护问题的担忧。这些结果建立在关于飓风风险的学术基础上,强调了居住在MHP的居民的结构和社会脆弱性,这些脆弱性限制了建筑复原力、适应能力、社区恢复工作,并倡导政策变革。这项研究旨在了解在佛罗里达州南部经历了长达十年的飓风干旱后,移动家庭公园居民对当地飓风风险的看法、经历和脆弱性,并了解居民在大型飓风后面临的障碍。飓风干旱是研究的关键,因为它会侵蚀个人和社区层面的准备。移动家庭公园的居民在飓风期间可能会经历更多的洪水、大风、龙卷风和其他危险。居民还面临着县、社区和家庭层面的结构性脆弱性,这些脆弱性限制了他们在飓风防备、风暴期间的安全以及风暴后的恢复能力方面的选择。我们的研究使用各种形式的数据收集,从佛罗里达州南部移动家园公园的永久居民那里获得见解。此外,它还讨论了政策制定者在气候变化风险管理中可以解决的社会和经济劣势以及机遇。
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引用次数: 0
Determining Patterns of Routine Weather Information Usage and Their Demographic Determinants 确定日常天气信息使用模式及其人口统计学决定因素
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-06-27 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0106.1
Wesley Wehde, Matthew Nowlin
Social science studies of weather and natural hazards have examined in depth the sources of information individuals use in response to a disaster. This research has primarily focused on information sources in isolation and as they relate to severe weather. Thus, less research has examined how individuals use information acquisition strategies during routine times. This paper addresses this limitation by examining patterns of routine weather information source usage. Using three unique survey datasets and Latent Class Analysis, we find that weather information source usage can be summarized by a limited number of coherent classes. Importantly, our results suggest weather information types, or classes, are generally consistent across datasets and samples. We also find demographic determinants, particularly age, help explain class membership; older respondents were more likely to belong to classes less reliant on technology-based information sources. Income and education also were related to more complex or comprehensive information use strategies. Results suggest the prevalent view of single-source information usage in previous research may not be adequate for understanding how individuals access information, in both routine and extreme contexts.
天气和自然灾害的社会科学研究已经深入研究了个人在应对灾害时使用的信息来源。这项研究主要侧重于孤立的信息来源以及与恶劣天气有关的信息来源。因此,很少有研究调查个人如何在日常时间使用信息获取策略。本文通过检查常规天气信息源的使用模式来解决这一限制。使用三个独特的调查数据集和潜在类分析,我们发现天气信息源的使用可以通过有限数量的连贯类来总结。重要的是,我们的结果表明,天气信息类型或类别在数据集和样本之间通常是一致的。我们还发现,人口统计学决定因素,尤其是年龄,有助于解释阶级成员;年龄较大的受访者更有可能属于对基于技术的信息来源依赖程度较低的阶层。收入和教育程度也与更复杂或更全面的信息使用策略有关。结果表明,在以前的研究中,单一来源信息使用的流行观点可能不足以理解个人如何在常规和极端环境中获取信息。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of temperature and air pollution on emergency ambulance dispatches: a time series analysis in a medium-sized city in Germany 温度和空气污染对急救车调度的影响:德国一个中等城市的时间序列分析
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-06-16 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0046.1
Philipp Schneider, A. Thieken, A. Walz
Management of adverse health related effects from heat waves requires comprehensive and accessible sources of information. This paper examines the effects of temperature and air pollution on human health and identifies areas with increased occurrence of emergency ambulance dispatches in the city of Würzburg, Bavaria, Germany and discusses the applicability for health care interventions and urban planning. An over-dispersed Poisson generalized additive model was used to examine and predict the association and potential lag of exposure between temperature, air pollution and three types of emergency ambulance dispatches during the study period from 2011-2019. A linear model was used to estimate heat-wave effects. A line density function was used to identify areas with increased occurrence of dispatches. Significant effects of temperature were detected for non-traumatic and cardiovascular diseases after exceeding a threshold temperature. The exposure-response relationships showed an increased relative risk up to two days after exposure for non-traumatic and cardiovascular diseases. Results indicate a significant association between presence of heat waves and cardiovascular diseases with up to 17% (CI 95%: 5.9% -30.0%) increased relative risk on a heat wave day compared to a non-heat wave day. Dispatches for cardiovascular diseases occur more often in areas with a high population and building density, especially in summer. The analyses identified hotspots of heat-related dispatches in areas with increased population and building density and provides baseline information for interventions in future urban planning and public health care management based on data commonly available even in small cities.
管理热浪对健康的不利影响需要全面和可获取的信息来源。本文研究了温度和空气污染对人类健康的影响,并确定了德国巴伐利亚州维尔茨堡市紧急救护车调度增加的地区,并讨论了卫生保健干预和城市规划的适用性。在2011-2019年的研究期间,使用过分散泊松广义加性模型来检验和预测温度、空气污染和三种类型的紧急救护车调度之间的联系和潜在的暴露滞后。使用线性模型来估计热浪效应。线路密度函数用于识别调度发生率增加的区域。在超过阈值温度后,检测到温度对非创伤性和心血管疾病的显著影响。暴露-反应关系显示,暴露后两天内,非创伤性和心血管疾病的相对风险增加。结果表明,热浪的存在与心血管疾病之间存在显著关联,与非热浪日相比,热浪日的相对风险增加了17%(CI 95%CI:5.9%-30.0%)。心血管疾病的调度更经常发生在人口和建筑密度高的地区,尤其是在夏天。这些分析确定了人口和建筑密度增加地区与高温相关的调度热点,并根据小城市常见的数据为未来城市规划和公共卫生保健管理的干预措施提供了基线信息。
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引用次数: 0
Characterizing the 2019 Midwest Flood: A Hydrologic and Socio-Economic Perspective 表征2019年中西部洪水:水文和社会经济视角
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-06-14 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0065.1
Lily Kraft, G. Villarini, Jeffrey Czajkowski
During the spring of 2019, severe flooding across the U.S. Midwest caused widespread damage to communities in the Missouri and Mississippi River Basins. While it is known that flood magnitude and economic damages are often related, little work exists to examine these factors simultaneously. In this study, we analyze both the hydrologic and socio-economic characteristics of the 2019 Midwest flood to gain a comprehensive understanding of impacts to individuals, households, and communities. We examine flood magnitude, duration, and probability of occurrence in tandem with claim and grant applications from federal disaster recovery programs, such as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the Individual and Households Program (IHP). Overall, we find that many areas, particularly in Nebraska and Iowa, experienced moderate or major flooding due to historic discharge magnitudes. In these states, NFIP claims totaled over $31 million and IHP applications exceeded $42 million in reported damages. In most cases, counties which reported a high density of insurance claims or grant applications overlapped with regions with significant flooding. We also identify the economic advantages to NFIP policyholders for flood recovery in terms of aid eligibility and financial aid amounts.
2019年春季,美国中西部的严重洪水对密苏里河和密西西比河流域的社区造成了广泛破坏。虽然众所周知,洪水的大小和经济损失往往是相关的,但很少有工作同时研究这些因素。在这项研究中,我们分析了2019年中西部洪水的水文和社会经济特征,以全面了解对个人、家庭和社区的影响。我们研究了洪水的规模、持续时间和发生概率,以及联邦灾难恢复计划的索赔和拨款申请,如国家洪水保险计划(NFIP)和个人和家庭计划(IHP)。总的来说,我们发现许多地区,特别是内布拉斯加州和爱荷华州,由于历史流量大小,经历了中度或重度洪水。在这些州,NFIP索赔总额超过3100万美元,IHP申请的报告损失超过4200万美元。在大多数情况下,报告保险索赔或拨款申请密度高的县与洪水严重的地区重叠。我们还确定了NFIP投保人在援助资格和财政援助金额方面对洪水恢复的经济优势。
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引用次数: 0
The context of the 2018-2020 ‘protracted’ El Niño episode: Australian drought, terrestrial, marine, and ecophysiological impacts. 2018-2020年“旷日持久”厄尔尼诺Niño事件的背景:澳大利亚干旱、陆地、海洋和生态生理影响。
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-06-09 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0096.1
R. Allan, R. Stone, J. Gergis, Zak Baillie, H. Heidemann, N. Caputi, R. D’Arrigo, Christa Pudmenzky
A ‘protracted’ El Niño episode occurred from March-April 2018 until April-May 2020. It was manifest by the interlinked Indo-Pacific influences of two components of El Niño phases. Positive Indian Ocean Dipoles (IODs) in 2018 and 2019, suppressed the formation of northwest cloud bands and southern Australia rainfall, and a persistent teleconnection, with enhanced convection generated by positive Niño 4 region sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and strong subsidence over eastern Australia, exacerbated this Australian drought. As with ‘classical’ El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which usually last 12-18 months, ‘protracted’ ENSO episodes, which last for more than 2 years, show a similar pattern of impacts on society and the environment across the Indo-Pacific domain, and often extend globally. The second half of this study puts the impact of the 2018-2020 ‘protracted’ El Niño episode on both the Australian terrestrial agricultural and marine ecophysiological environments in a broader context. These impacts are often not only modulated by the direct effects of ENSO events and episodes, but by interrelated local to region ocean-atmosphere interactions and synoptic weather patterns. Even though the indices of ‘protracted’ ENSO episodes are often weaker in magnitude than those of major ‘classical’ ENSO events, it is the longer duration of the former which poses its own set of problems. Thus, there is an urgent need to investigate the potential to forecast ‘protracted’ ENSO episodes, particularly when the mid-2020 to current 2022 period has been experiencing a major ‘protracted’ La Niña episode with near-global impacts.
从2018年3月至4月至2020年4月至5月,El Niño发生了一场“旷日持久”的事件。这表现在El Niño相位的两个组成部分对印度-太平洋的相互关联的影响上。2018年和2019年的印度洋正偶极子(IODs)抑制了西北云带的形成和澳大利亚南部的降雨,持续的遥相关,以及Niño 4区域海温(SST)正异常和澳大利亚东部强烈下沉所产生的对流增强,加剧了澳大利亚的干旱。与通常持续12-18个月的“经典”厄尔尼诺Niño南方涛动(ENSO)事件一样,持续2年以上的“长期”ENSO事件对整个印度-太平洋地区的社会和环境表现出类似的影响模式,并经常扩展到全球。本研究的后半部分将2018-2020年“长期”厄尔尼诺Niño事件对澳大利亚陆地农业和海洋生态生理环境的影响置于更广泛的背景下。这些影响往往不仅受到ENSO事件和事件的直接影响,而且受到相互关联的局地和区域海洋-大气相互作用和天气天气模式的调节。尽管“长期”ENSO事件的指数通常比那些主要的“经典”ENSO事件的强度要弱,但前者持续时间较长,也带来了一系列问题。因此,迫切需要调查预测“长期”ENSO事件的可能性,特别是在2020年中期至2022年目前期间,经历了一次具有近全球影响的重大“长期”La Niña事件。
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引用次数: 0
Leveraging U.S. Climate Assessment Research Gaps to Inform Science Innovation 利用美国气候评估研究差距为科学创新提供信息
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0041.1
S. Basile, A. Bieniek-Tobasco, B. Akamine, A. Lustig, C. W. Avery
Over three decades, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has developed an assessment process to integrate, evaluate, and interpret scientific findings on climate change and discuss uncertainties. In six USGCRP assessments, authors have identified research gaps, or topics that assessment authors indicated required more information or study. Examining research gaps on a continual and systematic basis can aid decisions about research projects, programmatic priorities, and strategic scientific visions. The methodology presented here addresses two aims: (1) identify and categorize research gaps within a searchable database, and (2) demonstrate use of the database to inform future science planning and assessment. Results include the top 10 database themes, 18 recurring topics across assessments, and a search example for vulnerability gaps. The benefits and limitations of this approach are discussed along with recommendations to improve future U.S. climate assessment products.
三十多年来,美国全球变化研究计划(USGCRP)制定了一个评估程序,以整合、评估和解释气候变化的科学发现,并讨论不确定性。在六项USGCRP评估中,作者确定了研究差距,或评估作者表示需要更多信息或研究的主题。在持续和系统的基础上检查研究差距可以帮助决定研究项目、计划优先事项和战略科学愿景。本文提出的方法有两个目的:(1)在可搜索的数据库中识别和分类研究差距,以及(2)演示如何使用该数据库为未来的科学规划和评估提供信息。结果包括前10个数据库主题、18个评估中反复出现的主题,以及一个漏洞搜索示例。讨论了这种方法的好处和局限性,并提出了改进未来美国气候评估产品的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Societal attention to heat waves can indicate public health impacts 社会对热浪的关注可以表明对公共健康的影响
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0147.1
Ekaterina Bogdanovich, L. Guenther, M. Reichstein, D. Frank, Georg Ruhrmann, A. Brenning, J. Denissen, R. Orth
Both the frequency and intensity of hot temperature extremes are expected to increase in the coming decades, challenging various socio-economic sectors including public health. Thereby, societal attention data available in real time, such as Google search attention, could help monitor heat wave impacts in domains with lagged data availability. Here, we jointly analyze societal attention and health impacts of heat waves in Germany at weekly time scales. We find that Google search attention responds similar to hot temperatures as indicators of public health impacts; represented by excess mortality and hospitalizations. This emerges from piecewise linear relationships of Google search attention and health impacts to temperature. We can then determine temperature thresholds above which both attention and public health are affected by heat. More generally, given the clear and similar response of societal indicators to heat, we conclude that heat waves can and should be defined from a joint societal and meteorological perspective, whereby temperatures are compared with thresholds established using societal data. A better joint understanding of societal attention and health impacts offers the potential to better manage future heat waves.
预计未来几十年极端高温的频率和强度都将增加,对包括公共卫生在内的各个社会经济部门构成挑战。因此,实时可用的社会关注数据,如谷歌搜索关注,可以帮助监测数据可用性滞后的领域的热浪影响。在这里,我们以每周的时间尺度共同分析了德国热浪的社会关注和健康影响。我们发现谷歌搜索注意力的响应与高温相似,是公共卫生影响的指标;以过高的死亡率和住院率为代表。这是从谷歌搜索注意力和健康影响对温度的分段线性关系中得出的。然后,我们可以确定温度阈值,超过这个阈值,注意力和公众健康都会受到高温的影响。更一般地说,鉴于社会指标对热量的明确和相似的响应,我们得出结论,热浪可以而且应该从社会和气象的联合角度来定义,从而将温度与使用社会数据建立的阈值进行比较。更好地共同了解社会关注和健康影响,为更好地管理未来的热浪提供了可能。
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引用次数: 1
Outdoor sport in extreme heat: Capturing the personal experiences of elite athletes 极端高温下的户外运动:捕捉精英运动员的个人经历
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0107.1
Kate Sambrook, S. Russell, Yasmina Okan, E. Konstantinidis
Heat stress from the environment can be detrimental to athlete health and performance. No research, however, has explored how elite athletes conceptualise and experience heatwaves and climate change. Utilising a qualitative approach, this study examined elite athletes’ perceptions, experiences and responses to extreme heat in relation to climate change and explored the use of their platforms for climate activism.Fourteen elite athletes from United Kingdom, Australia, United States of America, Sweden and Canada, who represented ten different sports including race walking, netball and cricket were recruited using snowball sampling. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews.Thematic analysis revealed four broad themes. The first theme reflected uncertainty surrounding the causes of heatwaves and the impact of heat on athlete health and performance. The second theme reflected care and concern for sport and society, including concern for the well-being of athletes and spectators, the impact of heat on facilities and participation at grass-roots level and how the nature of sport may change in the future. The third theme referred to the implications of heatwave experience on athlete health and performance, and how experience affected individual and organisational preparedness. Finally, the fourth theme referred to enablers and barriers to successful climate change communication.This study contributes to the sport ecology literature by introducing the subjective heat experiences of elite athletes. Educating athletes and event organisers about the impacts of heat on sport participation is imperative to increase awareness, and hopefully limit illness for those training and competing.
来自环境的热应激可能对运动员的健康和表现有害。然而,没有任何研究探讨精英运动员如何概念化和体验热浪和气候变化。本研究采用定性方法,调查了精英运动员对极端高温与气候变化的看法、经历和反应,并探讨了他们的气候行动平台的使用情况。来自英国、澳大利亚、美利坚合众国、瑞典和加拿大的14名精英运动员采用雪球抽样法招募,他们代表了竞走、无网篮球和板球等十个不同的运动项目。数据是通过半结构化访谈收集的。专题分析揭示了四大主题。第一个主题反映了热浪的原因以及高温对运动员健康和表现的影响的不确定性。第二个主题反映了对体育和社会的关心和关注,包括对运动员和观众福祉的关注,高温对设施和基层参与的影响,以及体育性质在未来可能发生的变化。第三个主题提到了热浪体验对运动员健康和表现的影响,以及体验如何影响个人和组织的准备。最后,第四个主题提到了成功进行气候变化宣传的因素和障碍。本研究通过介绍优秀运动员的主观热体验,为体育生态学文献做出了贡献。教育运动员和赛事组织者了解高温对体育参与的影响,对于提高人们的意识至关重要,并有望限制训练和比赛人员的疾病。
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引用次数: 0
How Post-Immunization COVID-19 Context Affected Residents’ Evacuation Behavior During Hurricane Ida 免疫后COVID-19背景如何影响飓风Ida期间居民的疏散行为
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-05-19 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0114.1
A. Polen, J. Collins, E. Dunn, S. Murphy, I. Jernigan, K. McSweeney, Yi‐Jie Zhu
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, decision-making during disasters fundamentally changed to accommodate the combined risks of hurricanes and infectious diseases. Prior research conducted in 2020 by Collins et al. (2021a, 2021b, 2022) examined how individuals changed their intended evacuation decision-making during the pandemic or their actual evacuation decisions during Hurricanes Laura and Sally. Hurricane Ida provided further data on evacuation decision-making when vaccinations and masks were widely available. A digital survey was disseminated to individuals affected by Hurricane Ida in 2021. Respondents provided information about their actual evacuation choices and perceptions of public shelters and COVID-19 risks. Compared to the 2020 hurricane season, more individuals have reduced negative perceptions of hurricane shelters. However, individuals were less likely to utilize public shelters than in the 2020 season, with 11.4% more individuals stating they would definitely or probably avoid using shelters in 2021. Fewer individuals identified that COVID-19 was a primary reason they chose to stay home during Hurricane Ida (19.5% compared to 86.8% during Hurricanes Laura and Sally). Furthermore, respondents with health risks for severe COVID-19 symptoms were no more likely to evacuate than those respondents who had no health risks. Potentially, as the pandemic progressed and vaccine availability and COVID-19 management improved, COVID-19 has had less impact on evacuation decision-making. The results from this work should guide planners in emergency management and public health in future hurricane seasons and future pandemics or other outbreaks to anticipate behavior changes and properly manage infectious disease threats.
自新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来,灾害期间的决策发生了根本性变化,以适应飓风和传染病的综合风险。柯林斯等人在2020年进行的先前研究(2021a、2021b、2022)考察了个人在疫情期间如何改变他们的预期疏散决策,或在飓风劳拉和莎莉期间如何改变实际疏散决策。飓风“艾达”提供了有关疫苗接种和口罩广泛可用时疏散决策的进一步数据。2021年,一项数字调查被分发给受飓风艾达影响的个人。受访者提供了有关其实际疏散选择以及对公共避难所和新冠肺炎风险的看法的信息。与2020年飓风季相比,更多的人减少了对飓风避难所的负面看法。然而,与2020年相比,个人使用公共避难所的可能性较小,更有11.4%的人表示他们肯定或可能在2021年避免使用避难所。更少的人认为新冠肺炎是他们在飓风艾达期间选择呆在家里的主要原因(19.5%,而飓风劳拉和莎莉期间为86.8%)。此外,与没有健康风险的受访者相比,有严重新冠肺炎症状健康风险的人撤离的可能性并不高。随着疫情的发展、疫苗供应和新冠肺炎管理的改善,新冠肺炎对疏散决策的影响可能会减少。这项工作的结果应指导未来飓风季节、未来流行病或其他疫情的应急管理和公共卫生规划者预测行为变化并妥善管理传染病威胁。
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引用次数: 0
Impact-based Flood early warning for rural livelihoods in Uganda 基于影响的乌干达农村生计洪水预警
IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-05-18 DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0089.1
F. Mitheu, E. Stephens, C. Petty, A. Ficchí, E. Tarnavsky, R. Cornforth
Anticipatory actions are increasingly being taken before an extreme flood event to reduce the impacts on lives and livelihoods. Local contextualised information is required to support real-time local decisions on where and when to act and what anticipatory actions to take. This study defines an impact-based early warning trigger system that integrates flood forecasts with livelihood information, such as crop calendars, to target anticipatory actions better. We demonstrate the application of this trigger system using a flood case study from the Katakwi District in Uganda. First, we integrate information on the local crop cycles with the flood forecasts to define the impact-based trigger system. Second, we verify the impact-based system using historical flood impact information and then compare it with the existing hazard-based system in the context of humanitarian decisions. Study findings show that the impact-based trigger system has an improved probability of flood detection compared to the hazard-based system. The number of missed events are fewer in the impact-based system while the trigger dates are similar in both systems. In a humanitarian context, the two systems trigger anticipatory actions at the same time. However, the impact-based trigger system can be further investigated in a different context (e.g., for livelihood protection) to assess the value of the local information. The impact-based system could also provide a valuable tool to validate the existing hazard-based system, which builds more confidence in its use in informing anticipatory actions. The study findings should therefore open avenues for further dialogue on what the impact-based trigger system could mean within the broader Forecast-based Action landscape towards building the resilience of at-risk communities.
人们越来越多地在极端洪水事件发生前采取预期行动,以减少对生命和生计的影响。需要当地情境化的信息来支持实时的当地决策,决定何时何地采取行动以及采取何种预期行动。本研究定义了一个基于影响的预警触发系统,该系统将洪水预报与作物日历等生计信息相结合,以更好地针对预期行动。我们通过乌干达Katakwi地区的洪水案例研究来演示该触发系统的应用。首先,我们将当地作物周期信息与洪水预报相结合,以定义基于影响的触发系统。其次,我们使用历史洪水影响信息验证基于影响的系统,然后在人道主义决策的背景下将其与现有的基于灾害的系统进行比较。研究结果表明,与基于灾害的触发系统相比,基于冲击的触发系统具有更高的洪水探测概率。在基于影响的系统中,错过事件的数量更少,而两个系统中的触发日期相似。在人道主义方面,这两种制度同时引发预期的行动。然而,基于影响的触发系统可以在不同的背景下进一步调查(例如,为了生计保护),以评估当地信息的价值。基于影响的系统还可以提供一个宝贵的工具来验证现有的基于危害的系统,从而使人们更有信心将其用于通知预期行动。因此,研究结果应为进一步对话开辟道路,讨论基于影响的触发系统在更广泛的基于预测的行动框架内对建立风险社区的复原力可能意味着什么。
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Weather Climate and Society
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