Pub Date : 2023-08-23DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0014.1
S. Alexander, Mikhaila N. Calice, Dietram A. Scheufele, D. Brossard, Nicole M. Krause, D. Wright, P. Block
Although scientists agree that climate change is anthropogenic, differing interpretations of evidence in a highly polarized sociopolitical environment impact how individuals perceive climate change. While prior work suggests that individuals experience climate change through local conditions, there is a lack of consensus on how personal experience with extreme precipitation may alter public opinion on climate change. We combine high resolution precipitation data at the ZIP code level with nationally representative public opinion survey results (n = 4,008) that examine beliefs in climate change and the perceived cause. Our findings support relationships between well-established value systems (i.e., partisanship, religion) and socioeconomic status with individual opinions of climate change, showing that these values are influential in opinion formation on climate issues. We also show that experiencing characteristics of atypical precipitation (e.g., more variability than normal, increasing or decreasing trends, or highly recurring extreme events) in a local area are associated with increased belief in anthropogenic climate change. This suggests that individuals in communities that experience greater atypical precipitation may be more accepting of messaging and policy strategies directly aimed at addressing climate change challenges. Thus, communication strategies that leverage individual perception of atypical precipitation at the local level may help tap into certain “experiential” processing methods, making climate change feel less distant. These strategies may help reduce polarization and motivate mitigation and adaptation actions.
{"title":"The impact of extreme precipitation events and their variability on climate change beliefs in the American public","authors":"S. Alexander, Mikhaila N. Calice, Dietram A. Scheufele, D. Brossard, Nicole M. Krause, D. Wright, P. Block","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0014.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0014.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Although scientists agree that climate change is anthropogenic, differing interpretations of evidence in a highly polarized sociopolitical environment impact how individuals perceive climate change. While prior work suggests that individuals experience climate change through local conditions, there is a lack of consensus on how personal experience with extreme precipitation may alter public opinion on climate change. We combine high resolution precipitation data at the ZIP code level with nationally representative public opinion survey results (n = 4,008) that examine beliefs in climate change and the perceived cause. Our findings support relationships between well-established value systems (i.e., partisanship, religion) and socioeconomic status with individual opinions of climate change, showing that these values are influential in opinion formation on climate issues. We also show that experiencing characteristics of atypical precipitation (e.g., more variability than normal, increasing or decreasing trends, or highly recurring extreme events) in a local area are associated with increased belief in anthropogenic climate change. This suggests that individuals in communities that experience greater atypical precipitation may be more accepting of messaging and policy strategies directly aimed at addressing climate change challenges. Thus, communication strategies that leverage individual perception of atypical precipitation at the local level may help tap into certain “experiential” processing methods, making climate change feel less distant. These strategies may help reduce polarization and motivate mitigation and adaptation actions.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42767854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-18DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0013.1
H. Obermeier, Kodi L. Berry, Joseph E. Trujillo-Falcón
Broadcast meteorologists are essential in the communication of National Weather Service (NWS) warnings to the public. Therefore, it is imperative to include them in a user-centered approach for the design and implementation of new warning products. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) will modernize the way meteorologists forecast and communicate NWS warning information to the general public using rapidly updating probabilistic hazard information (PHI). Storm scale PHI consists of probabilistic forecasts for severe wind/hail, tornadoes, and lightning hazards. Hence, NWS warnings would have the capacity to be supplemented by a quantitative or qualitative likelihood of hazard occurrence. The researchers conducting this study wanted to know what broadcast meteorologists thought about the inclusion of this likelihood information and how it could impact their decision making and communication process. Using a nationwide survey, this team of researchers first asked broadcast meteorologists about their current practices for severe weather coverage using NWS watches and warnings. Next, broadcast meteorologists were introduced to multiple iterations of PHI prototypes and queried for their input. Findings indicated that broadcast meteorologists already face a complex decision making and communication process under today’s warning paradigm. Additionally, respondents were split on whether to explicitly communicate probabilities with their viewers. Respondents’ choices were also somewhat inconclusive regarding nomenclature, definitions of PHI and representations of PHI with warning polygons. These results suggest that PHI should feature user-driven, customizable options to fulfill broadcast meteorologists’ needs and that the iterative nature of the research-and-development process of PHI should continue.
{"title":"Understanding Broadcast Meteorologists’ Current and Future Use of Severe Weather Watches, Warnings and Probabilistic Hazard Information","authors":"H. Obermeier, Kodi L. Berry, Joseph E. Trujillo-Falcón","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0013.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0013.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Broadcast meteorologists are essential in the communication of National Weather Service (NWS) warnings to the public. Therefore, it is imperative to include them in a user-centered approach for the design and implementation of new warning products. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) will modernize the way meteorologists forecast and communicate NWS warning information to the general public using rapidly updating probabilistic hazard information (PHI). Storm scale PHI consists of probabilistic forecasts for severe wind/hail, tornadoes, and lightning hazards. Hence, NWS warnings would have the capacity to be supplemented by a quantitative or qualitative likelihood of hazard occurrence. The researchers conducting this study wanted to know what broadcast meteorologists thought about the inclusion of this likelihood information and how it could impact their decision making and communication process. Using a nationwide survey, this team of researchers first asked broadcast meteorologists about their current practices for severe weather coverage using NWS watches and warnings. Next, broadcast meteorologists were introduced to multiple iterations of PHI prototypes and queried for their input. Findings indicated that broadcast meteorologists already face a complex decision making and communication process under today’s warning paradigm. Additionally, respondents were split on whether to explicitly communicate probabilities with their viewers. Respondents’ choices were also somewhat inconclusive regarding nomenclature, definitions of PHI and representations of PHI with warning polygons. These results suggest that PHI should feature user-driven, customizable options to fulfill broadcast meteorologists’ needs and that the iterative nature of the research-and-development process of PHI should continue.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47618819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-14DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0012.1
R. Mungkung, Tananon Nudchanate
This study quantified greenhouse gas emissions from indirect activities along the whole value chain of supermarket retailing to derive mitigation measures. Both direct and indirect greenhouse gas emission sources of a supermarket retailing value chain were identified and calculated using the national guidelines for estimating the carbon footprint for organizations, based on a total area of 13,248 m2 and operating 12 hours per day. A scoring matrix was applied that considered the magnitude of emissions, the level of influence, and the risks or opportunities associated with the business operation. The scoring results indicated a major contribution from value chain activities that should be included in any greenhouse gas analysis. The calculation revealed that the greenhouse gas emissions from the value chain activities were 33,784 tCO2e/year or 94% of the total emissions. The key contributors were linked to the production of purchased goods and the management of food waste. Thus, value chain activities should not be overlooked in developing efficient greenhouse gas management strategies. Furthermore, purchased products and services carrying a carbon reduction label should be given priority, while the application of artificial intelligence and innovation could be considered to reduce the amount of food waste from expired goods.
{"title":"Measurement and Management of Value Chain Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Supermarket Retailing","authors":"R. Mungkung, Tananon Nudchanate","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0012.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0012.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This study quantified greenhouse gas emissions from indirect activities along the whole value chain of supermarket retailing to derive mitigation measures. Both direct and indirect greenhouse gas emission sources of a supermarket retailing value chain were identified and calculated using the national guidelines for estimating the carbon footprint for organizations, based on a total area of 13,248 m2 and operating 12 hours per day. A scoring matrix was applied that considered the magnitude of emissions, the level of influence, and the risks or opportunities associated with the business operation. The scoring results indicated a major contribution from value chain activities that should be included in any greenhouse gas analysis. The calculation revealed that the greenhouse gas emissions from the value chain activities were 33,784 tCO2e/year or 94% of the total emissions. The key contributors were linked to the production of purchased goods and the management of food waste. Thus, value chain activities should not be overlooked in developing efficient greenhouse gas management strategies. Furthermore, purchased products and services carrying a carbon reduction label should be given priority, while the application of artificial intelligence and innovation could be considered to reduce the amount of food waste from expired goods.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41734434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-27DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0143.1
M. Zarei, S. H. Hosseini, Mahnaz Naemitabar
The motivation of this research is the continuation and intensification of drought effects on various socio-economic sectors and the observation of few studies and no coordinated efforts to provide a compatible framework for drought risk management in different economic sectors and population groups of the study region. Present research was carried out to assess the vulnerability and population exposed to drought in Khorasan Razavi province. Meteorological data sets for the years 1950-2020, drought indices including Palmer self-calibration (scPDSI), standardized precipitation (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI), population and livestock density indicators, agricultural lands, water stress, socio-economic and infrastructural factors have been used. Results indicate that dry and wet periods were estimated more intense by SPEI in all studied stations, also a significant difference was observed between the results of the SPI and SPEI indices in determining the long dry and wet periods. The highest variation between the occurrence of dry and wet periods was estimated using the SPEI, which could be related to seasonal fluctuations of temperature and computational evapotranspiration. Although no significant correlation was observed between used indices to identify the number of wet months, however, a significant positive correlation exists between the numbers of dry months estimated by those. Drought risk analysis demonstrated that the central and southern parts of the province are exposed to very severe drought, while the northern and northeastern parts of the area are more inclined to severe drought. The highest class of drought exposure is observed in the southern, central, and eastern regions of the province so they represent the high-risk category of drought.
{"title":"Assessing vulnerability and population exposed to drought in various climatic regions of northeastern Iran","authors":"M. Zarei, S. H. Hosseini, Mahnaz Naemitabar","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0143.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0143.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The motivation of this research is the continuation and intensification of drought effects on various socio-economic sectors and the observation of few studies and no coordinated efforts to provide a compatible framework for drought risk management in different economic sectors and population groups of the study region. Present research was carried out to assess the vulnerability and population exposed to drought in Khorasan Razavi province. Meteorological data sets for the years 1950-2020, drought indices including Palmer self-calibration (scPDSI), standardized precipitation (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI), population and livestock density indicators, agricultural lands, water stress, socio-economic and infrastructural factors have been used. Results indicate that dry and wet periods were estimated more intense by SPEI in all studied stations, also a significant difference was observed between the results of the SPI and SPEI indices in determining the long dry and wet periods. The highest variation between the occurrence of dry and wet periods was estimated using the SPEI, which could be related to seasonal fluctuations of temperature and computational evapotranspiration. Although no significant correlation was observed between used indices to identify the number of wet months, however, a significant positive correlation exists between the numbers of dry months estimated by those. Drought risk analysis demonstrated that the central and southern parts of the province are exposed to very severe drought, while the northern and northeastern parts of the area are more inclined to severe drought. The highest class of drought exposure is observed in the southern, central, and eastern regions of the province so they represent the high-risk category of drought.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44187033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-21DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0039.1
Ramazan Aslan, Musab Süleyman Köçer, Sefa Mızrak
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is considered one of the biggest threats to humanity in the century, with severe direct or indirect impacts on people’s lives. Such a significant threat causes serious concern, which can motivate low-level pro-environmental behaviour and lead to serious health problems at high levels. Therefore, determining the level of this concern is crucial. Outdoor recreation participants, who are constantly in contact with nature, can closely witness the effects of ACC due to these interactions. Therefore, evaluating their ACC worry is essential. In this study, the aim was to determine the ACC worry levels of outdoor recreation participants. The research data was collected through an online survey from a sample reached through convenience sampling method throughout Türkiye. The data were analyzed using AMOS and SPSS software. The relationship between independent variables and ACC concern was revealed through ordinal logistic regression. The research found that the participants had a high level of concern about ACC, with a score of 3.50. It was also determined that this level of concern was influenced by variables such as the type of outdoor recreation, the duration of participation in outdoor recreation, and exposure to the effects of ACC. Considering ACC can motivate pro-environmental behaviours, the research suggests that outdoor recreational participants with high levels of concern about ACC should not be ignored in the adaptation process.
{"title":"Worry about Climate Change of Outdoor Recreation Participants: A Case Study in Türkiye","authors":"Ramazan Aslan, Musab Süleyman Köçer, Sefa Mızrak","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0039.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0039.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is considered one of the biggest threats to humanity in the century, with severe direct or indirect impacts on people’s lives. Such a significant threat causes serious concern, which can motivate low-level pro-environmental behaviour and lead to serious health problems at high levels. Therefore, determining the level of this concern is crucial. Outdoor recreation participants, who are constantly in contact with nature, can closely witness the effects of ACC due to these interactions. Therefore, evaluating their ACC worry is essential. In this study, the aim was to determine the ACC worry levels of outdoor recreation participants.\u0000The research data was collected through an online survey from a sample reached through convenience sampling method throughout Türkiye. The data were analyzed using AMOS and SPSS software. The relationship between independent variables and ACC concern was revealed through ordinal logistic regression.\u0000The research found that the participants had a high level of concern about ACC, with a score of 3.50. It was also determined that this level of concern was influenced by variables such as the type of outdoor recreation, the duration of participation in outdoor recreation, and exposure to the effects of ACC. Considering ACC can motivate pro-environmental behaviours, the research suggests that outdoor recreational participants with high levels of concern about ACC should not be ignored in the adaptation process.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45450257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-13DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0023.1
K. Semmens, Rachel Hogan Carr, B. Montz, Keri Maxfield
Communicating the threat of severe winter weather is not simply a matter of the quantity of inches of snow or degrees of cold; it also considers the potential impacts of the storm. The Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) is a graphical product from the National Weather Service that presents anticipated impacts from forecasted winter weather for a range of winter conditions. To assess the utility of the WSSI and how an impact-based winter weather forecast product is interpreted and used to inform decision-making, a mixed-methods social science study was conducted by the Nurture Nature Center in coordination with the Weather Prediction Center. Through focus groups and surveys, testing in the hydrometeorological testbed, and iterations on design and category descriptions, several themes emerged about how professional stakeholders understand, interpret, and use this product for communicating about impending winter weather. There is perceived utility in the WSSI for situational awareness and as part of a package of other information to inform decision-making. However, there is variability in interpretations of impacts, resulting from differences in geography, community readiness and experience, among other factors, which creates complications in communicating the forecast. Further, many users seek quantities related to winter weather, suggesting that education about what impact-based products include and what data are shown is necessary. Understanding the factors that influence perspectives on impact levels, and the variable needs for winter weather information across regions, improves forecasters’ abilities to effectively communicate and provide critical information that helps end users prepare for severe winter weather.
{"title":"What impact? Communicating Severity Forecast Information through the Winter Storm Severity Index","authors":"K. Semmens, Rachel Hogan Carr, B. Montz, Keri Maxfield","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-23-0023.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-23-0023.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Communicating the threat of severe winter weather is not simply a matter of the quantity of inches of snow or degrees of cold; it also considers the potential impacts of the storm. The Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) is a graphical product from the National Weather Service that presents anticipated impacts from forecasted winter weather for a range of winter conditions. To assess the utility of the WSSI and how an impact-based winter weather forecast product is interpreted and used to inform decision-making, a mixed-methods social science study was conducted by the Nurture Nature Center in coordination with the Weather Prediction Center. Through focus groups and surveys, testing in the hydrometeorological testbed, and iterations on design and category descriptions, several themes emerged about how professional stakeholders understand, interpret, and use this product for communicating about impending winter weather. There is perceived utility in the WSSI for situational awareness and as part of a package of other information to inform decision-making. However, there is variability in interpretations of impacts, resulting from differences in geography, community readiness and experience, among other factors, which creates complications in communicating the forecast. Further, many users seek quantities related to winter weather, suggesting that education about what impact-based products include and what data are shown is necessary. Understanding the factors that influence perspectives on impact levels, and the variable needs for winter weather information across regions, improves forecasters’ abilities to effectively communicate and provide critical information that helps end users prepare for severe winter weather.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47694667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-11DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0117.1
Andrea Simonelli, Kaitlyn Novalski
The Marshall Islands is beginning to feel the impacts of climate change. Its geography and low-lying landscape has put it at a disadvantage to fight the coming seas. National leadership and environmental groups continue to provide locals with communications about the challenges to come. While climate change is a concept of science, there may be local barriers to its public internalization. This study seeks to determine if there is a relationship between fundamentalist Christian views, climate change communication, and Marshallese perceptions of global environmental change. The Marshall Islands has a deeply religious population, the majority of which are fundamentalist Christians. A mixed methods survey is employed to assess the impact the belief in biblical literalism, the Noahic Covenant, and Apocalyptic Narratives exert over Marshallese views of environmental change. Results demonstrate that non elite Marshallese inhabitants do not see climate change as an existential threat, but rather as a sign that of the end times and the Second Coming of Christ. This has significant implications for human security and migration outcomes if current climate communication methods are ineffective with respect to urgency. If locals see climate impacts through a religious lens, climate change communication must incorporate Biblical concepts and address contextual understandings.
{"title":"Rainbows of Comfort in Rising Seas: How Literalist Bible Interpretations Impact Climate Change Communication in the Marshall Islands","authors":"Andrea Simonelli, Kaitlyn Novalski","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0117.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0117.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The Marshall Islands is beginning to feel the impacts of climate change. Its geography and low-lying landscape has put it at a disadvantage to fight the coming seas. National leadership and environmental groups continue to provide locals with communications about the challenges to come. While climate change is a concept of science, there may be local barriers to its public internalization. This study seeks to determine if there is a relationship between fundamentalist Christian views, climate change communication, and Marshallese perceptions of global environmental change. The Marshall Islands has a deeply religious population, the majority of which are fundamentalist Christians. A mixed methods survey is employed to assess the impact the belief in biblical literalism, the Noahic Covenant, and Apocalyptic Narratives exert over Marshallese views of environmental change. Results demonstrate that non elite Marshallese inhabitants do not see climate change as an existential threat, but rather as a sign that of the end times and the Second Coming of Christ. This has significant implications for human security and migration outcomes if current climate communication methods are ineffective with respect to urgency. If locals see climate impacts through a religious lens, climate change communication must incorporate Biblical concepts and address contextual understandings.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44123713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-04DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0080.1
Olivia G. VanBuskirk, R. McPherson, Lauren E. Mullenbach
Due to climate change, extreme precipitation events are likely to become more common in Oklahoma, requiring cities and municipalities to plan for managing this extra water. There are multiple types of practitioners within communities who are responsible for overseeing planning for the future, including stormwater and floodplain management. These practitioners may be able to integrate weather and climate information into their decision-making to help them prepare for heavy precipitation events and their impacts. Floodplain managers from central and eastern Oklahoma were interviewed to learn what information they currently use and how it informs their decision-making. When making decisions in the short-term, floodplain managers relied on weather forecasts, and for long-term decisions, other factors such as constrained budgets or the power of county officials had more influence than specific climate predictions or projections. On all timescales, social networks and prior experience with flooding informed floodplain manager’s decisions and planning. Overall, weather and climate information are just one component of floodplain managers’ decision-making process. The atmospheric science community could work more collaboratively with practitioners so that weather and climate information is more useful and therefore more relevant to the types of decisions that floodplain managers make.
{"title":"What Floodplain Managers Want: Using Weather and Climate Information for Decision-Making","authors":"Olivia G. VanBuskirk, R. McPherson, Lauren E. Mullenbach","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0080.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0080.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Due to climate change, extreme precipitation events are likely to become more common in Oklahoma, requiring cities and municipalities to plan for managing this extra water. There are multiple types of practitioners within communities who are responsible for overseeing planning for the future, including stormwater and floodplain management. These practitioners may be able to integrate weather and climate information into their decision-making to help them prepare for heavy precipitation events and their impacts. Floodplain managers from central and eastern Oklahoma were interviewed to learn what information they currently use and how it informs their decision-making. When making decisions in the short-term, floodplain managers relied on weather forecasts, and for long-term decisions, other factors such as constrained budgets or the power of county officials had more influence than specific climate predictions or projections. On all timescales, social networks and prior experience with flooding informed floodplain manager’s decisions and planning. Overall, weather and climate information are just one component of floodplain managers’ decision-making process. The atmospheric science community could work more collaboratively with practitioners so that weather and climate information is more useful and therefore more relevant to the types of decisions that floodplain managers make.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46294314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-03DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0141.1
Ann Wanless, R. Riley
Extreme rainfall events are hazardous and costly. They have increased in parts of the United States and climate models project that trend to continue. Effective communication of potential threats and impacts associated with extreme rainfall events is one of the foci of a weather forecaster’s job and aligns with the National Weather Service’s (NWS) mission to protect life and property. This research investigated how NWS forecasters processed and communicated information about extreme rainfall events that occurred in the South Central U.S. between 2015 and 2019. The study also explored forecasters’ perceptions of the relationship between the events and climate change and if those perceptions impacted the forecasts, including how forecast information was communicated. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with NWS forecasters about how they internally processed and externally communicated model outliers and anomalous rainfall events. Thematic analysis of the interview data identified components of sensemaking and decision-making conceptual frameworks as well as principles of forecasting. These components were then combined to create an Extreme Event Forecast Communication Process Model to illustrate the findings. While forecast and communication processes are complex and vary between offices and forecasters, the communication process model presents a high-level conceptualization of how forecasters translate highly technical and disparate material into usable information for their audiences within the context of rare meteorological events.
{"title":"Examining Extreme Rainfall Forecast and Communication Processes in the South Central United States","authors":"Ann Wanless, R. Riley","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0141.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0141.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Extreme rainfall events are hazardous and costly. They have increased in parts of the United States and climate models project that trend to continue. Effective communication of potential threats and impacts associated with extreme rainfall events is one of the foci of a weather forecaster’s job and aligns with the National Weather Service’s (NWS) mission to protect life and property. This research investigated how NWS forecasters processed and communicated information about extreme rainfall events that occurred in the South Central U.S. between 2015 and 2019. The study also explored forecasters’ perceptions of the relationship between the events and climate change and if those perceptions impacted the forecasts, including how forecast information was communicated. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with NWS forecasters about how they internally processed and externally communicated model outliers and anomalous rainfall events.\u0000Thematic analysis of the interview data identified components of sensemaking and decision-making conceptual frameworks as well as principles of forecasting. These components were then combined to create an Extreme Event Forecast Communication Process Model to illustrate the findings. While forecast and communication processes are complex and vary between offices and forecasters, the communication process model presents a high-level conceptualization of how forecasters translate highly technical and disparate material into usable information for their audiences within the context of rare meteorological events.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43733348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0060.1
Jacqueline Willwerth, Megan Sheahan, Nathan Chan, Charles Fant, Jeremy Martinich, Michael Kolian
Climate change is expected to impact individuals' recreational choices, as changing temperatures and precipitation patterns influence participation in outdoor recreation and alternative activities. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between weather and outdoor recreation using nationally representative data from the contiguous United States. We find that across most outdoor recreational activities, participation is lowest on the coldest days (<35 degrees Fahrenheit) and highest at moderately high temperatures (80 to 90 degrees). Notable exceptions to this trend include water sports and snow and ice sports, for which participation peaks at the highest and lowest temperatures, respectively. If individuals continue to respond to temperature changes the same way that they have in the recent past, in a future climate that has fewer cool days and more moderate and hot days, our model anticipates net participation across all outdoor recreation activities will increase by 88 million trips annually at 1 degree Celsius of warming (CONUS) and up to 401 million trips at 6 degrees of warming, valued between $3.2 billion and $15.6 billion in consumer surplus annually (2010 population). The increase in trips is driven by participation in water sports; excluding water sports from future projections decreases the consumer surplus gains by approximately 75 percent across all modeled degrees of warming. If individuals in northern regions respond to temperature like people in southern regions currently do (a proxy for adaptation), total outdoor recreation trips will increase by an additional 17 percent compared to no adaptation at 6 degrees of warming. This benefit is generally not seen at lower degrees of warming.
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