Pub Date : 2023-01-11DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0059.1
R. Carmona, Francisca Carril, Rocío Yon
Indigenous Peoples' advocacy has enabled them to position themselves in global debates on climate change. Although the international community progressively acknowledges Indigenous Peoples' contributions to climate action, their effective recognition in national climate governance remains marginal. This article analyses Indigenous Peoples' recognition in the climate governance of Latin American states based on the document analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted between 2016 and March 2022. A content analysis and frequency analysis was conducted on thirty documents. Mentions related to Indigenous Peoples in the NDCs are increasing; nevertheless, this recognition reproduces the multicultural approach that has characterised Latin American states' legislations and thereby undermines the coherence of climate policy. The references mainly allude to cultural diversity and climatic vulnerability without addressing the ongoing territorial conflicts that mediate the relationship between Indigenous Peoples and states. Nor do the NDCs recognise the right of Indigenous Peoples to participate at the different levels of climate change decision-making processes. Intercultural recognition of Indigenous Peoples and better standards of participation in climate change governance are mandatory. However, States must first promote institutional transformations to address the historical and institutional factors that have produced Indigenous Peoples' climate vulnerability and generate the necessary mechanisms to implement the recognition committed to in the NDCs.
{"title":"The Recognition of Indigenous Peoples in Latin American Climate Governance. A review of Nationally Determined Contributions","authors":"R. Carmona, Francisca Carril, Rocío Yon","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0059.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0059.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Indigenous Peoples' advocacy has enabled them to position themselves in global debates on climate change. Although the international community progressively acknowledges Indigenous Peoples' contributions to climate action, their effective recognition in national climate governance remains marginal. This article analyses Indigenous Peoples' recognition in the climate governance of Latin American states based on the document analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted between 2016 and March 2022. A content analysis and frequency analysis was conducted on thirty documents. Mentions related to Indigenous Peoples in the NDCs are increasing; nevertheless, this recognition reproduces the multicultural approach that has characterised Latin American states' legislations and thereby undermines the coherence of climate policy. The references mainly allude to cultural diversity and climatic vulnerability without addressing the ongoing territorial conflicts that mediate the relationship between Indigenous Peoples and states. Nor do the NDCs recognise the right of Indigenous Peoples to participate at the different levels of climate change decision-making processes. Intercultural recognition of Indigenous Peoples and better standards of participation in climate change governance are mandatory. However, States must first promote institutional transformations to address the historical and institutional factors that have produced Indigenous Peoples' climate vulnerability and generate the necessary mechanisms to implement the recognition committed to in the NDCs.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47268256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-09DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0056.1
Michael D. Smith, J. E. Ten Hoeve, Christopher Lauer, Vankita Brown
NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) provides forecasts, warnings, and decision support to the public for the protection of life and property. The NWS Weather Ready Nation model describes the process of applying weather information to achieve societal value. However, it is not clear how different racial and socioeconomic groups across the United States receive, understand, and act upon the weather information supplied under this model. There may be barriers that keep important, life-saving information from the populations at the highest risk of severe weather impacts. This paper estimates the extent of racial and socioeconomic disparities in severe weather risk information reception, comprehension, response, and trust, as well as severe weather preparedness and risk perceptions in the United States. We use data from the University of Oklahoma’s Severe Weather and Society Survey which is annually completed by a sample of 3,000 U.S. adults (age 18+) that is designed to match the characteristics of the U.S. population. We pool data over four years (2017-2020) to provide reliable severe weather risk prevalence statistics for adults by race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic characteristics. As a robustness check, we supplement this information with data from the FEMA Annual Household Survey. We find that racial and socioeconomic groups receive, understand, trust, and act upon severe weather information differently. These findings suggest NWS and their partners adjust their communication strategies to ensure all populations receive and understand actionable severe weather information.
{"title":"A Weather-Ready Nation for All? The Demographics of Severe Weather Understanding, Reception, and Response1","authors":"Michael D. Smith, J. E. Ten Hoeve, Christopher Lauer, Vankita Brown","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0056.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0056.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) provides forecasts, warnings, and decision support to the public for the protection of life and property. The NWS Weather Ready Nation model describes the process of applying weather information to achieve societal value. However, it is not clear how different racial and socioeconomic groups across the United States receive, understand, and act upon the weather information supplied under this model. There may be barriers that keep important, life-saving information from the populations at the highest risk of severe weather impacts. This paper estimates the extent of racial and socioeconomic disparities in severe weather risk information reception, comprehension, response, and trust, as well as severe weather preparedness and risk perceptions in the United States. We use data from the University of Oklahoma’s Severe Weather and Society Survey which is annually completed by a sample of 3,000 U.S. adults (age 18+) that is designed to match the characteristics of the U.S. population. We pool data over four years (2017-2020) to provide reliable severe weather risk prevalence statistics for adults by race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic characteristics. As a robustness check, we supplement this information with data from the FEMA Annual Household Survey. We find that racial and socioeconomic groups receive, understand, trust, and act upon severe weather information differently. These findings suggest NWS and their partners adjust their communication strategies to ensure all populations receive and understand actionable severe weather information.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48156905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-06DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0003.1
Julia Teebken, Nicole Mitchell, K. Jacob, T. Heimann
Climate change adaptation planning and implementation have proliferated over the past years. However, we still lack an understanding of how society adapts itself outside of policy sectors and as part of what some refer to as “autonomous adaptation”. The way people respond to risk without deliberate interventions of public actors is not well-understood. Given the increasing occurrence of climatic changes that affect our daily lives, the topic is regaining attention with an emphasis on behavioral adaptation. This angle, however, does little to enhance our understanding of how society adapts collectively, and which practices and routines groups choose to adopt. This study investigates autonomous heat stress adaptation efforts in two small towns in Germany. Autonomous heat stress adaptation is approached through a lens of (social) adaptation practices. Small towns are understudied in adaptation research and have also played an only minor role when it comes to public adaptation planning, due to their lack of formal resources to develop public adaptation strategies. Based on empirical data, consisting of qualitative problem-centered interviews and a quantitative survey, concrete examples of (social) adaptation practices are identified and classified. The presented classification of practices goes beyond earlier attempts by generating insights on the role politics can play in providing a fruitful ground for enabling autonomous adaptation. The paper emphasizes the need for researchers and decision-makers to take a closer look at the wide variety of social adaptation practices already in place. This discloses insights on public-private adaptation mixes, which could ultimately also lift autonomous adaptation from its ad-hoc and reactive nature.
{"title":"Classifying Social Adaptation Practices to Heat Stress – Learning from Autonomous Adaptations in Two Small Towns in Germany","authors":"Julia Teebken, Nicole Mitchell, K. Jacob, T. Heimann","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0003.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0003.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Climate change adaptation planning and implementation have proliferated over the past years. However, we still lack an understanding of how society adapts itself outside of policy sectors and as part of what some refer to as “autonomous adaptation”. The way people respond to risk without deliberate interventions of public actors is not well-understood. Given the increasing occurrence of climatic changes that affect our daily lives, the topic is regaining attention with an emphasis on behavioral adaptation. This angle, however, does little to enhance our understanding of how society adapts collectively, and which practices and routines groups choose to adopt.\u0000This study investigates autonomous heat stress adaptation efforts in two small towns in Germany. Autonomous heat stress adaptation is approached through a lens of (social) adaptation practices. Small towns are understudied in adaptation research and have also played an only minor role when it comes to public adaptation planning, due to their lack of formal resources to develop public adaptation strategies. Based on empirical data, consisting of qualitative problem-centered interviews and a quantitative survey, concrete examples of (social) adaptation practices are identified and classified.\u0000The presented classification of practices goes beyond earlier attempts by generating insights on the role politics can play in providing a fruitful ground for enabling autonomous adaptation. The paper emphasizes the need for researchers and decision-makers to take a closer look at the wide variety of social adaptation practices already in place. This discloses insights on public-private adaptation mixes, which could ultimately also lift autonomous adaptation from its ad-hoc and reactive nature.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47375348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0016.1
V. Makuvaro, T. Chitata, Emmanuel Tanyanyiwa, Solomon Zirebwa
Sustainability of rain-fed agriculture in semiarid regions is being threatened by climate variability and change. Weather and climate information (WCI) can be used to reduce the effects of this threat on agricultural production. WCI may be available, but is it readily accessible and communicated/disseminated efficiently to intended end users? Are stakeholders able to interpret the information to correctly inform decision-making? To answer these questions, in view of intermediate stakeholders (service providers to farmers), a study was carried out in two districts of the Midlands Province of Zimbabwe to identify the type and sources of WCI received by these stakeholders as well as constraints and opportunities to access, interpretation, and use of WCI. The study sample was drawn from the Midlands Provincial Drought Relief Committee, a link between the sources of WCI and the smallholder farmers. A questionnaire pretested for clarity and checked for internal consistency of themes using the standardized Cronbach’s alpha was used to collect data. Descriptive statistics were generated using SPSS (version 20.0). Findings were that WCI was sometimes not readily available or was received late. Approximately 36% of the intermediate stakeholders (service providers) passed on WCI to farmers in its original form, from the main source the Meteorological Services Department. It was also unfortunate to discover that 36% of the respondents had challenges interpreting WCI. Impediments to the use of WCI by farmers included scientific information not aligning with indigenous information, which is better understood by farmers, and lack of trust in WCI. It is imperative to improve access to WCI and to train stakeholders on interpretation and dissemination of WCI. Weather and climate information—if accurate, accessible, provided in a timely manner, and well understood—can be helpful in the farm decision-making process. Its usefulness is becoming more important with increased climatic variability and change. This paper highlights the challenges and opportunities for service providers in communicating and disseminating WCI. We believe that findings from the study will give direction to efficient utilization of the information by the various end users, for which smallholder farmers are the majority in most developing countries.
{"title":"Challenges and Opportunities in Communicating Weather and Climate Information to Rural Farming Communities in Central Zimbabwe","authors":"V. Makuvaro, T. Chitata, Emmanuel Tanyanyiwa, Solomon Zirebwa","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0016.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0016.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Sustainability of rain-fed agriculture in semiarid regions is being threatened by climate variability and change. Weather and climate information (WCI) can be used to reduce the effects of this threat on agricultural production. WCI may be available, but is it readily accessible and communicated/disseminated efficiently to intended end users? Are stakeholders able to interpret the information to correctly inform decision-making? To answer these questions, in view of intermediate stakeholders (service providers to farmers), a study was carried out in two districts of the Midlands Province of Zimbabwe to identify the type and sources of WCI received by these stakeholders as well as constraints and opportunities to access, interpretation, and use of WCI. The study sample was drawn from the Midlands Provincial Drought Relief Committee, a link between the sources of WCI and the smallholder farmers. A questionnaire pretested for clarity and checked for internal consistency of themes using the standardized Cronbach’s alpha was used to collect data. Descriptive statistics were generated using SPSS (version 20.0). Findings were that WCI was sometimes not readily available or was received late. Approximately 36% of the intermediate stakeholders (service providers) passed on WCI to farmers in its original form, from the main source the Meteorological Services Department. It was also unfortunate to discover that 36% of the respondents had challenges interpreting WCI. Impediments to the use of WCI by farmers included scientific information not aligning with indigenous information, which is better understood by farmers, and lack of trust in WCI. It is imperative to improve access to WCI and to train stakeholders on interpretation and dissemination of WCI.\u0000\u0000\u0000Weather and climate information—if accurate, accessible, provided in a timely manner, and well understood—can be helpful in the farm decision-making process. Its usefulness is becoming more important with increased climatic variability and change. This paper highlights the challenges and opportunities for service providers in communicating and disseminating WCI. We believe that findings from the study will give direction to efficient utilization of the information by the various end users, for which smallholder farmers are the majority in most developing countries.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41411193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-29DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0067.1
Chongming Wang, E. Rider, Scott Manning, Jacob Fast, Tanveer Islam
ABSTRACT: Residents in the Southeast region of the United States are frequently threatened by tornadoes. Previous research indicates that it is important to study the experience of tornado victims to better understand individual risk perception, preparedness, protective action, response, and recovery strategies that contribute to overall community resilience. In this study, we employ an oral history approach and analyze the lived experience of an EF-3 tornado survivors in Jacksonville, Alabama. Using snowball sampling, we conducted in-depth interviews of 25 residents of Jacksonville, Alabama who experienced the EF-3 tornado on March 19, 2018. The recorded interviews were then analyzed using qualitative software. Most of the participants described the support system and the range of resources accessible through the network of relations as the critical factors that facilitated recovery and contributed to resilience. The majority also emphasized the importance of being prepared and being proactive when addressing future storms, but some of their actions at times revealed that they were also used to being reactive. Also, the participants were either long-term residents (homeowners) or transient college students (renters), and the data gave insight into different recovery paths and challenges. Further, findings revealed ongoing trauma and recovery challenges due to the extensive, unexpected damage and lack of temporary housing and contractor availability often associated with rural, small towns. This research aims to provide a scientific basis for improved efforts in preparedness and protective actions as well as in response and recovery strategies in tornado events and for identifying factors of community resilience in tornado-prone areas.
{"title":"Qualitative Analysis of the Lived Experience of Tornado Survivors and Factors Affecting Community Resilience: A Case Study of an EF-3 Tornado in Jacksonville, Alabama","authors":"Chongming Wang, E. Rider, Scott Manning, Jacob Fast, Tanveer Islam","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0067.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0067.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000ABSTRACT: Residents in the Southeast region of the United States are frequently threatened by tornadoes. Previous research indicates that it is important to study the experience of tornado victims to better understand individual risk perception, preparedness, protective action, response, and recovery strategies that contribute to overall community resilience. In this study, we employ an oral history approach and analyze the lived experience of an EF-3 tornado survivors in Jacksonville, Alabama. Using snowball sampling, we conducted in-depth interviews of 25 residents of Jacksonville, Alabama who experienced the EF-3 tornado on March 19, 2018. The recorded interviews were then analyzed using qualitative software. Most of the participants described the support system and the range of resources accessible through the network of relations as the critical factors that facilitated recovery and contributed to resilience. The majority also emphasized the importance of being prepared and being proactive when addressing future storms, but some of their actions at times revealed that they were also used to being reactive. Also, the participants were either long-term residents (homeowners) or transient college students (renters), and the data gave insight into different recovery paths and challenges. Further, findings revealed ongoing trauma and recovery challenges due to the extensive, unexpected damage and lack of temporary housing and contractor availability often associated with rural, small towns. This research aims to provide a scientific basis for improved efforts in preparedness and protective actions as well as in response and recovery strategies in tornado events and for identifying factors of community resilience in tornado-prone areas.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43357702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-28DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0069.1
Michelle E. Saunders, Kevin D. Ash, J. Collins, R. Morss
A radar display is a tool that depicts meteorological data over space and time, therefore, an individual must think spatially and temporally in addition to drawing on their own meteorological knowledge and past weather experiences. We aimed to understand how the construal of situational risks and outcomes influences the perceived usefulness of a radar display and to explore how radar users interpret distance, time, and meteorological attributes using hypothetical scenarios in the Tampa Bay area (Florida). Ultimately, we wanted to understand how and why individuals use weather radar and to discover what makes it a useful tool. To do this, Construal Level Theory and geospatial thinking guided the mixed methods used in this study to investigate four research objectives. Our findings show that radar is used most often by our participants to anticipate what will happen in the near future in their area. Participants described in their own words what they were viewing while using a radar display and reported what hazards they expected at the study location. Many participants associated the occurrence of lightning or strong winds with ‘red’ and ‘orange’ reflectivity values on a radar display. Participants provided valuable insight about what was and wasn’t found useful about certain radar displays. We also found that most participants overestimated the amount of time they would have before precipitation would begin at their location. Overall, weather radar was found to be a very useful tool, however, judging spatial and temporal proximity became difficult when storm motion/direction was not easily identifiable.
{"title":"Construal of Situational Risk and Outcomes – Exploring the Use of Weather Radar Displays with Residents of the Tampa Bay Region","authors":"Michelle E. Saunders, Kevin D. Ash, J. Collins, R. Morss","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0069.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0069.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000A radar display is a tool that depicts meteorological data over space and time, therefore, an individual must think spatially and temporally in addition to drawing on their own meteorological knowledge and past weather experiences. We aimed to understand how the construal of situational risks and outcomes influences the perceived usefulness of a radar display and to explore how radar users interpret distance, time, and meteorological attributes using hypothetical scenarios in the Tampa Bay area (Florida). Ultimately, we wanted to understand how and why individuals use weather radar and to discover what makes it a useful tool. To do this, Construal Level Theory and geospatial thinking guided the mixed methods used in this study to investigate four research objectives. Our findings show that radar is used most often by our participants to anticipate what will happen in the near future in their area. Participants described in their own words what they were viewing while using a radar display and reported what hazards they expected at the study location. Many participants associated the occurrence of lightning or strong winds with ‘red’ and ‘orange’ reflectivity values on a radar display. Participants provided valuable insight about what was and wasn’t found useful about certain radar displays. We also found that most participants overestimated the amount of time they would have before precipitation would begin at their location. Overall, weather radar was found to be a very useful tool, however, judging spatial and temporal proximity became difficult when storm motion/direction was not easily identifiable.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42466909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-22DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0063.1
P. Lignier, D. Jarvis, D. Grainger, Taha Chaiechi
It is now widely acknowledged that climate change will have a considerable impact on various aspects of human existence, and this includes happiness and satisfaction with life. This study adds to the existing literature on the contribution of climate to wellbeing by exploring the interaction of various climate variables at the national and local levels while controlling for socio-economic factors. Using climate data covering a 20-year period and demographic data from the Household Income Labour Dynamics in Australia surveys, several OLS models of interaction are developed to test the proposition that climate does influence life satisfaction. Geographically Weighted Regression is then applied to explore how the relationship between explanatory variables and life satisfaction varies across different regions of Australia. We find that overall rainfall, temperature, and sunshine have a small but significant effect on individual life satisfaction.The spatial analysis reveals a high level of non-stationarity in the way climate variables impact life satisfaction, suggesting that regional climate type may be an important element influencing the relationship. The understanding of this relationship may assist policy makers who develop resilience and adaptation strategies as we face the impacts of climate change.
{"title":"Does the Climate Impact Satisfaction with Life? An Australian Spatial Study.","authors":"P. Lignier, D. Jarvis, D. Grainger, Taha Chaiechi","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0063.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0063.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000It is now widely acknowledged that climate change will have a considerable impact on various aspects of human existence, and this includes happiness and satisfaction with life. This study adds to the existing literature on the contribution of climate to wellbeing by exploring the interaction of various climate variables at the national and local levels while controlling for socio-economic factors. Using climate data covering a 20-year period and demographic data from the Household Income Labour Dynamics in Australia surveys, several OLS models of interaction are developed to test the proposition that climate does influence life satisfaction. Geographically Weighted Regression is then applied to explore how the relationship between explanatory variables and life satisfaction varies across different regions of Australia. We find that overall rainfall, temperature, and sunshine have a small but significant effect on individual life satisfaction.The spatial analysis reveals a high level of non-stationarity in the way climate variables impact life satisfaction, suggesting that regional climate type may be an important element influencing the relationship. The understanding of this relationship may assist policy makers who develop resilience and adaptation strategies as we face the impacts of climate change.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45762578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-19DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0006.1
Anna E. Brower, Bianca G. Corpuz, Balaji Ramesh, B. Zaitchik, J. Gohlke, S. Swarup
Machine learning was applied to predict evacuation rates for all Census tracts affected by Hurricane Laura. The evacuation ground truthwas derived from cellphone-based mobility data. Twitter data, Census data, geographical data, COVID-19 case rates, the CDC/ATSDR social vulnerability index, and relevant weather and physical data were used to do the prediction. Random forests were found to perform well, with a MAPE of 4.9% on testing data. Feature importance for prediction was analyzed using Shapley additive explanations and it was found that previous evacuation, rainfall forecasts, COVID-19 case rates, and Twitter data rank highly in terms of importance. Social vulnerability indices were also found to show a very consistent relationship with evacuation rates, such that higher vulnerability consistently implies lower evacuation rates. These findings can help with hurricane evacuation preparedness and planning as well as real-time assessment.
{"title":"Predictors of Evacuation Rates During Hurricane Laura: Weather Forecasts, Twitter, and COVID-19","authors":"Anna E. Brower, Bianca G. Corpuz, Balaji Ramesh, B. Zaitchik, J. Gohlke, S. Swarup","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0006.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0006.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Machine learning was applied to predict evacuation rates for all Census tracts affected by Hurricane Laura. The evacuation ground truthwas derived from cellphone-based mobility data. Twitter data, Census data, geographical data, COVID-19 case rates, the CDC/ATSDR social vulnerability index, and relevant weather and physical data were used to do the prediction. Random forests were found to perform well, with a MAPE of 4.9% on testing data. Feature importance for prediction was analyzed using Shapley additive explanations and it was found that previous evacuation, rainfall forecasts, COVID-19 case rates, and Twitter data rank highly in terms of importance. Social vulnerability indices were also found to show a very consistent relationship with evacuation rates, such that higher vulnerability consistently implies lower evacuation rates. These findings can help with hurricane evacuation preparedness and planning as well as real-time assessment.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44527585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-19DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0011.1
C. Chadenas, M. Chotard, O. Navarro, R. Kerguillec, M. Robin, M. Juigner
Studying the population's perception of coastal erosion is essential and is increasingly used by coastal administrators, especially because it strongly influences the acceptance of coastal adaptation strategies. This article explores the population’s perception of coastal risk on the atlantic coast of France (pays de la Loire region) that is an at-risk territory historically affected by erosion and particularly sensitive to coastal flooding. The major goal of the paper is to collect data in terms of risk perception by carrying out a field survey on three territorial collectivities, with the aim to enhance the feasibility of the managed retreat operations that will be implemented on this coast in the next years. A total of 700 surveys were collected and several original results can be drawn: the population has a good knowledge of erosion in the area where they live and this knowledge is key as the territory is vulnerable. Similarly, the respondents have a good knowledge of protection measures but some are more important than others: for example, the reinforcement of coastal defenses is the most commonly cited strategy to deal with coastal hazards while relocation is the second most known but least popular scenario. Finally, several factors influence people's perception of risk: for example, time spent in the residence and age of residents are two elements contributing to place attachment which must be taken into account before starting to implement any climate adaptation policies.
{"title":"Coastal Erosion Risk: Population Adaptation to Climate Change A Case Study of the Pays de la Loire Coastline.","authors":"C. Chadenas, M. Chotard, O. Navarro, R. Kerguillec, M. Robin, M. Juigner","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0011.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0011.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Studying the population's perception of coastal erosion is essential and is increasingly used by coastal administrators, especially because it strongly influences the acceptance of coastal adaptation strategies. This article explores the population’s perception of coastal risk on the atlantic coast of France (pays de la Loire region) that is an at-risk territory historically affected by erosion and particularly sensitive to coastal flooding. The major goal of the paper is to collect data in terms of risk perception by carrying out a field survey on three territorial collectivities, with the aim to enhance the feasibility of the managed retreat operations that will be implemented on this coast in the next years. A total of 700 surveys were collected and several original results can be drawn: the population has a good knowledge of erosion in the area where they live and this knowledge is key as the territory is vulnerable. Similarly, the respondents have a good knowledge of protection measures but some are more important than others: for example, the reinforcement of coastal defenses is the most commonly cited strategy to deal with coastal hazards while relocation is the second most known but least popular scenario. Finally, several factors influence people's perception of risk: for example, time spent in the residence and age of residents are two elements contributing to place attachment which must be taken into account before starting to implement any climate adaptation policies.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43330389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-14DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0043.1
J. Garner, Carly E. Kovacik
Wildfires that posed an immediate threat to life and property during the period 1933–2021 were examined across the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. Such fires were identified in local, state, and federal data archives and other sources which yielded 150 events for analysis. A subset of those fires were sorted into one of two synoptic-scale patterns associated with a fall season offshore-directed and summer season non-offshore-directed low-level flow regime. Proximity analysis soundings near the offshore wind-driven wildfires frequently displayed ingredients that supported gap and mountain wave development, which were responsible for generating fast moving wildfires, long-distance spotting, and firebrand showers that resulted in loss of life and property. Paradoxically, the most extreme combinations of strong winds and low relative humidity were observed near high population centers in Southern California, yet the most destructive and deadly fires were in less populated regions of Northern California and Western Oregon. Additional analysis of 40 Fire Behavior Fuel Models data, housing development in the wildland-urban interface, and U.S. census demographic information revealed that the Northern California and Western Oregon wildfires were associated with more devastating outcomes because 1) a higher ratio of communities were intermixed with flammable fuels, 2) fire ignitions of an electrical origin occurred in wind prone corridors that were upstream from communities, and 3) communities in Northern California and Western Oregon were composed of a greater percentage of socially vulnerable people such as the elderly who were less capable of perceiving and evading intense rapidly evolving wildfires.
{"title":"Extreme Wildfire Environments and Their Impacts Occurring with Offshore-Directed Winds across the Pacific Coast States","authors":"J. Garner, Carly E. Kovacik","doi":"10.1175/wcas-d-22-0043.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-22-0043.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Wildfires that posed an immediate threat to life and property during the period 1933–2021 were examined across the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. Such fires were identified in local, state, and federal data archives and other sources which yielded 150 events for analysis. A subset of those fires were sorted into one of two synoptic-scale patterns associated with a fall season offshore-directed and summer season non-offshore-directed low-level flow regime. Proximity analysis soundings near the offshore wind-driven wildfires frequently displayed ingredients that supported gap and mountain wave development, which were responsible for generating fast moving wildfires, long-distance spotting, and firebrand showers that resulted in loss of life and property. Paradoxically, the most extreme combinations of strong winds and low relative humidity were observed near high population centers in Southern California, yet the most destructive and deadly fires were in less populated regions of Northern California and Western Oregon. Additional analysis of 40 Fire Behavior Fuel Models data, housing development in the wildland-urban interface, and U.S. census demographic information revealed that the Northern California and Western Oregon wildfires were associated with more devastating outcomes because 1) a higher ratio of communities were intermixed with flammable fuels, 2) fire ignitions of an electrical origin occurred in wind prone corridors that were upstream from communities, and 3) communities in Northern California and Western Oregon were composed of a greater percentage of socially vulnerable people such as the elderly who were less capable of perceiving and evading intense rapidly evolving wildfires.","PeriodicalId":48971,"journal":{"name":"Weather Climate and Society","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42879755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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