Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research最新文献_第4页

Alternative outcome frameworks to model injury severity outcomes of motorcyclists colliding with other vehicles 模拟摩托车手与其他车辆碰撞伤害严重程度结果的替代结果框架

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2025.2474310

Dongdong Song , Chenzhu Wang , Said M. Easa , Renteng Yuan , Fei Chen , Jianchuan Cheng , Yitao Yang , Le Tian

Lacking protection compared to drivers of other vehicles, motorcyclists accounted for most casualties and fatalities. This study explores how non-motorcycle drivers affect motorcyclists’ injury outcomes in motorcycle-vehicle collisions. The motorcycle-vehicle crashes from the United Kingdom for 2016–2020 are used to estimate two alternative logit models to account for possible unobserved heterogeneities. The models are a latent class multinomial logit with class probability functions and a random threshold-parameter generalized ordered logit. With three possible injury severity levels (fatal injury, severe injury, and minor injury), the characteristics of motorcyclist, driver, roadway, environment, vehicle, and collision are considered potential determinants. Then, the temporal instability issues are revealed through the likelihood ratio tests and out-of-sample predictions based on the two models. Showing good ${rho ^2}$

ρ^{2}

values of over 0.370, the latent class model’s estimation results are leveraged to quantify the effects of the contributing factors. Moreover, the marginal effects are also calculated to reveal the existing temporal instability, while some variables reflect the temporal instability in the influence trend and degree. The critical factors increasing the risk levels are male motorcyclists, higher speed limit, older ages of motorcyclists and vehicles, fine weather, single carriageway, and head-on collision type. Overall, subtle variations in the injury severity predictions exist in alternative heterogeneity modeling approaches, suffering from the modeling mechanism of different structural frameworks in capturing the unobserved heterogeneities.

与其他车辆的驾驶员相比，由于缺乏保护，摩托车手的伤亡人数最多。本研究探讨非摩托车驾驶员如何影响摩托车碰撞中摩托车驾驶员的伤害结果。本文使用英国2016-2020年的摩托车碰撞数据来估计两种不同的logit模型，以解释可能未观察到的异质性。该模型是一个具有类概率函数的潜在类多项式logit和一个随机阈值参数广义有序logit。有三种可能的伤害严重程度（致命伤害、严重伤害和轻微伤害），摩托车手、驾驶员、道路、环境、车辆和碰撞的特征被认为是潜在的决定因素。然后，通过基于两种模型的似然比检验和样本外预测，揭示了时间不稳定性问题。显示出良好的${rho ^2}$ρ2值超过0.370，利用潜在类模型的估计结果来量化贡献因素的影响。此外，还计算了边际效应，以揭示存在的时间不稳定性，而一些变量在影响趋势和程度上反映了时间不稳定性。增加危险程度的关键因素是男性摩托车手、较高的速度限制、摩托车手和车辆的年龄较大、晴朗的天气、单车道和正面碰撞类型。总的来说，在不同的异质性建模方法中，损伤严重程度预测存在微妙的差异，这是因为在捕获未观察到的异质性时，不同结构框架的建模机制存在差异。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of socioeconomic determinants on road traffic accidents in Tunisia: insights from the dynamic ARDL and machine learning approaches 社会经济因素对突尼斯道路交通事故的影响：来自动态ARDL和机器学习方法的见解

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2025.2479190

Manel Ouni , Rafaa Mraihi

Road traffic accidents are responsible for 1.35 million deaths, and road safety is the part of sustainable development goals, which aims to provide a safe, accessible, affordable, and sustainable transport system by 2030. Despite significant efforts made by the Tunisia government to reduce traffic accidents, there is still a need to understand the root causes of these accidents. This study examines the relationship between road traffic fatalities, economic growth, total mileage of highways, private vehicle ownership, and urbanization in Tunisia from 2000 to 2023. This study employs novel estimation techniques, including dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) simulations and Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS), to capture the counterfactual shocks in road traffic fatalities. The DARDL results revealed that 1% increase in economic growth, urbanization, and private car ownership leads to a 0.316%, 0.371% and 0.347% rise in road traffic accidents in the long-run, respectively. The KRLS results indicate that economic growth and private vehicle ownership have a positive marginal effect on road traffic fatalities. Specifically, an increase in private vehicle ownership consistently raises traffic fatalities across all percentiles. In contrast, the effect of total highway mileage is initially positive, leading to an increase in accidents, but turns negative in the later stages. Additionally, the frequency domain causality results show that economic growth granger causes road accident for frequencies corresponding to long-term (0.93–1.00) and medium-term (1.03–1.50) horizons. Urbanization granger causes road accident in the medium term (1.69 to 1.97) and short term (2.01 to 2.63). Private vehicle Granger-causes road accident for frequencies between 0.00 and 0.89 in the long run and between 1.03 and 1.73 in the medium term. The governments should include traffic education as part of syllabus from primary to higher studies. Government should create awareness about the loss due to road crashes.

道路交通事故造成135万人死亡，道路安全是可持续发展目标的一部分，该目标旨在到2030年提供安全、可获得、负担得起和可持续的交通系统。尽管突尼斯政府为减少交通事故做出了重大努力，但仍有必要了解这些事故的根本原因。本研究考察了突尼斯2000年至2023年间道路交通死亡人数、经济增长、公路总里程、私家车拥有量和城市化之间的关系。本研究采用了新的估计技术，包括动态自回归分布滞后（DARDL）模拟和基于核的正则化最小二乘（KRLS），以捕捉道路交通死亡中的反事实冲击。DARDL的结果显示，从长期来看，经济增长、城市化和私家车拥有量每增加1%，道路交通事故分别增加0.316%、0.371%和0.347%。研究结果表明，经济增长和私家车保有量对道路交通死亡人数具有正边际效应。具体来说，私家车拥有量的增加持续提高了所有百分位数的交通死亡人数。相比之下，公路总里程的影响最初是正的，导致事故增加，但在后期变为负的。此外，频域因果关系结果表明，经济增长在长期（0.93 ~ 1.00）和中期（1.03 ~ 1.50）区间对道路交通事故具有granger因果关系。城市化对道路交通事故的granger影响表现为中期（1.69 ~ 1.97）和短期（2.01 ~ 2.63）。私家车司机-导致道路意外的长期频率介乎0.00至0.89，中期则介乎1.03至1.73。政府应该把交通教育作为从小学到高等教育教学大纲的一部分。政府应该提高人们对交通事故造成的损失的认识。

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引用次数: 0

Optimal vehicle carbon emission tax pricing scheme based on commuters’ loss aversion effect 基于通勤者损失厌恶效应的汽车碳排放税最优定价方案

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2025.2471473

Yangbeibei Ji , Chang Liu , Hui Sun , Xinyang Zhu , Xinru Xing

This study optimizes vehicle carbon tax schemes to balance emission reduction and commuter acceptance using a bottleneck model. It compares flat (FCT) and increasing block (IBCT) carbon taxes, quantifying traveler acceptance via loss aversion theory. Then, the study combines carbon emission reduction benefits and travelers’ acceptance for optimal pricing.Numerical examples show that the optimal pricing under the IBCT setting is always better than the FCT setting. Compared with the FCT, the IBCT significantly reduces the loss aversion negative utility of travelers and increases their acceptance of the carbon emission tax. In addition, the carbon threshold under the IBCT schemes distinguish between high and low-emission zones, and under optimal IBCT pricing, commuters in low-emission zones do not have to pay the carbon tax, while commuters in high-emission zones would face relatively higher tax. The results also offer optimal carbon tax pricing adaptable to diverse government goals and electric vehicle adoption levels.${{rm{E}}^{rm{*}}}$

E^{*}

本研究利用瓶颈模型对汽车碳税方案进行优化，以平衡减排和通勤者接受度。它比较了平坦碳税（FCT）和增加街区碳税（IBCT），通过损失厌恶理论量化了旅行者的接受程度。然后，结合碳减排效益和旅客对最优定价的接受程度。算例表明，IBCT条件下的最优定价总是优于FCT条件下的最优定价。与FCT相比，IBCT显著降低了出行者的损失厌恶负效用，提高了出行者对碳排放税的接受度。此外，IBCT方案下的碳门槛区分了高排放区和低排放区，在最优IBCT定价下，低排放区的通勤者无需缴纳碳税，而高排放区的通勤者将面临相对较高的碳税。结果还提供了适应不同政府目标和电动汽车采用水平的最优碳税定价。${{rm{E}}^{rm{*}}}$E∗

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引用次数: 0

Research on car-following models and platoon speed guidance based on real datasets in connected and automated environments 互联自动化环境下基于真实数据集的车辆跟随模型及队列速度引导研究

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2025.2480928

Huanfeng Liu , Hanfei Wang , Keke Niu , Rixing Zhu , Zishuo Zhang

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) utilize advanced sensors and communication technology to enhance traffic efficiency. This study applies platoon speed guidance in urban mixed traffic flow to evaluate the impact of CAV integration. The NGSIM (Peachtree) dataset is used to calibrate the standard headway, while the NGSIM (US101) and Gunter datasets optimize car-following model parameters. Model Predictive Control (MPC) enables multi-objective optimization of speed guidance strategies for four scenarios. A co-simulation with Python and SUMO evaluates performance. Results indicate that the calibrated car-following model accurately represents vehicle behavior, and platoon speed guidance effectively reduces stops and waiting times. Its effectiveness increases with traffic flow but diminishes at high congestion levels.

联网和自动驾驶汽车（CAV）利用先进的传感器和通信技术来提高交通效率。本研究将排速导引应用于城市混合交通流中，以评估自动驾驶汽车整合的影响。NGSIM （Peachtree）数据集用于校准标准车头时距，而NGSIM （US101）和Gunter数据集用于优化汽车跟随模型参数。模型预测控制（MPC）实现了四种情况下速度制导策略的多目标优化。与Python和SUMO的联合模拟评估性能。结果表明，标定后的车辆跟随模型能准确反映车辆行为，队列速度引导能有效减少停车和等待时间。它的有效性随着交通流量的增加而增加，但在高度拥堵的情况下会降低。

引用次数: 0

Understanding the role of travel context and latent traits on metro route choice using a hybrid choice model 利用混合选择模型了解出行环境和潜在特征在地铁路线选择中的作用

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2025.2485833

Xiaolei Liu , Zhengyu Duan

Route choice decision-making is an intricate cognitive process. This study incorporates previously unstudied travel context and latent traits, in addition to traditional attributes, to examine their impact on metro route choices using a hybrid choice model framework. A stated choice experiment is designed to collect respondents’ preferred routes. A set of attitudinal indicators is utilized to measure passengers’ latent traits. Results indicate that metro passengers consider a variety of factors when choosing routes, placing particular emphasis on travel time especially when under time pressure. Cost, number of transfers, and higher crowded levels negatively affect choice behavior, while lower crowded levels, seat availability, and route familiarity exert a positive influence. Moreover, individuals with risk-taking or adaptability traits are likely to choose unconventional routes, those having a variety-seeking trait tend to favor unfamiliar routes and show less concern about crowding level, while flexible respondents persist in seeking less crowded riding experiences.

路线选择决策是一个复杂的认知过程。本研究结合了以前未被研究的旅行背景和潜在特征，以及传统属性，使用混合选择模型框架来检查它们对地铁路线选择的影响。一个陈述选择实验旨在收集受访者的首选路线。使用一套态度指标来衡量乘客的潜在特征。结果表明，地铁乘客在选择路线时考虑了多种因素，尤其是在时间压力下，出行时间尤为重要。成本、换乘次数和较高拥挤程度对选择行为有负向影响，而较低拥挤程度、座位可用性和路线熟悉度对选择行为有正向影响。此外，具有冒险或适应性特征的个体可能会选择非常规路线，具有多样性特征的个体倾向于选择不熟悉的路线，对拥挤程度的关注较少，而灵活的受访者则坚持寻求不那么拥挤的骑行体验。

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引用次数: 0

String stability of the heterogeneous vehicle platoon considering connectivity uncertainty and autonomous driving levels under variable time headway strategy 可变车头时距策略下考虑连接不确定性和自动驾驶水平的异构车辆队列串稳定性

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2025.2478507

Jianqiang Wang , Wenlong Zhao , Haigen Min , Yan Huang , Chenglin Liu

The variable time headway (VTH) strategy can sensitively adjust vehicle spacing and it is essential to investigate the role in maintaining platoon stability. The driving characteristics and transformation relationships of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), connected vehicles (CVs), automated vehicles (AVs), and human-driven vehicles (HVs) within a novel heterogeneous platoon are analyzed, considering the differences in automated driving functionalities and the uncertainties in connected capabilities. An intelligent driver model (IDM) and adaptive cruise control model (ACC) incorporating the VTH strategy, which considers relative velocity (VRV-IDM and VRV-ACC), were developed to characterize HVs and AVs. The cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) and IDM under the VTH strategy, considering relative velocity and preceding vehicle acceleration (VPA-CACC and VPA-IDM), were constructed to represent CAVs and CVs. Using the Laplace transform method, the string stability incorporating the preceding vehicle’s acceleration is derived. The results indicate that VTH effectively enhances the string stability.

变车头时距（VTH）策略可以灵敏地调节车辆间距，对维持车队稳定的作用有重要的研究意义。考虑自动驾驶功能的差异和连接能力的不确定性，分析了新型异质队列中网联和自动驾驶汽车（cav）、网联汽车（cv）、自动驾驶汽车（AVs）和人驾驶汽车（hv）的驾驶特征和转换关系。建立了考虑相对速度（VRV-IDM和VRV-ACC）的VTH策略的智能驾驶员模型（IDM）和自适应巡航控制模型（ACC）来表征hv和av。构建了VTH策略下考虑相对速度和前车加速度的协同自适应巡航控制（CACC）和IDM (VPA-CACC和VPA-IDM)，分别代表cav和cv。利用拉普拉斯变换方法，导出了考虑前车加速度的弦稳定性。结果表明，VTH有效地提高了管柱的稳定性。

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引用次数: 0

Does implicit attitude affect travel mode choice behaviors? A study of customized bus attraction to urban railway riders 内隐态度是否影响出行方式选择行为？定制公交对城市轨道交通乘客的吸引力研究

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research

Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2025.2452050

Xinyun Lao , Yu Shen , Jing Cao , Yuxiong Ji , Yuchuan Du

Urban railway (UR) systems in densely populated cities face oversaturation during peak hours, yet bus ridership keeps declining. Shifting some UR riders to buses is crucial. Customized bus (CB), a demand-responsive transit mode, could attract riders from congested rail systems. This study investigates mode choice behaviors between CB and UR, focusing on implicit and explicit attitudes. An online survey combining revealed and stated preference scenarios is designed, incorporating the implicit association tests and Likert-scale questions to measure the implicit and explicit attitudes. Multinomial logit models are adopted to analyze responses from 1,500 commuters. Then, investment strategies to enhance the attractiveness of CB are designed and simulated. Results show: (1) incorporating implicit and/or explicit attitudes significantly influenced choice behavior but does not improve the goodness-of-fit; (2) female and high-income individuals hold the most positive implicit attitudes toward CB; (3) equity-based resource allocation proves more effective than other strategies in enhancing attitudes.

在人口密集的城市，城市铁路（UR）系统在高峰时段面临饱和，而公交客流量却不断下降。让一些乘客改乘公共汽车是至关重要的。定制公交（CB）是一种需求响应型交通模式，可以从拥挤的铁路系统中吸引乘客。本研究以内隐态度和外显态度为研究对象，探讨了大学生的模式选择行为。设计了一项结合显性和显性偏好情景的在线调查，结合内隐联想测试和李克特量表问题来衡量内隐和外显态度。采用多项逻辑模型对1500名通勤者的反应进行分析。然后，设计并仿真了增强转债吸引力的投资策略。结果表明：(1)内隐和外显态度对选择行为有显著影响，但对拟合优度没有显著改善；(2)女性和高收入个体对CB的内隐态度最为积极；(3)以股权为基础的资源配置在提升态度方面比其他策略更有效。

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引用次数: 0

Service area design and allocation problem for electric bike sharing system under demand uncertainty 需求不确定性下电动自行车共享系统服务区设计与分配问题

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research

Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2025.2454075

Wenshan Liu , Zihao Tian , Rui Zhao , Yixiao Liu , Lixin Tian , David Z. W. Wang

Currently, the electric bike sharing system (EBSS) has gained popularity due to its efficiency and eco-friendliness. However, limited battery capacity of electric bikes (EBs) complicates the system design. To address this, we propose a service area design and allocation model incorporating hybrid stations, aiming to maximize daily net profit. Two cases are explored to address demand uncertainty. First, an expected value model is established, where demand is described probabilistically. Second, demand uncertainty is addressed by modeling random variables as uncertain parameters within an uncertainty set. A two-stage robust optimization model is developed, which maximizes the net profit in the worst-case scenario. We design a row generation approach to solve adjustable two-stage robust programs. Numerical experiments with data from the Daha EBSS in Yangzhou, China, demonstrate the model applicability. Moreover, the proposed algorithm outperforms the existing scenario-based approach in terms of both solution quality and computational efficiency.

目前，电动自行车共享系统（EBSS）因其效率和生态友好性而受到欢迎。然而，电动自行车的电池容量有限，使系统设计变得复杂。为了解决这个问题，我们提出了一个包含混合站的服务区设计和分配模型，旨在最大化日净利润。探讨了两个案例来解决需求不确定性。首先，建立期望值模型，对需求进行概率描述。其次，通过将随机变量建模为不确定集合中的不确定参数来解决需求不确定性。建立了在最坏情况下净利润最大化的两阶段鲁棒优化模型。我们设计了一种行生成方法来求解可调的两阶段鲁棒规划。利用扬州大哈EBSS数据进行的数值试验验证了模型的适用性。此外，该算法在求解质量和计算效率方面都优于现有的基于场景的方法。

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引用次数: 0

Matrix-based long-term traffic flow prediction 基于矩阵的长期交通流量预测

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research

Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2024.2440211

Qi Guo , Benyun Shi , Youjie Wan

Accurate long-term traffic prediction is crucial for enhancing traffic efficiency, ensuring urban safety, and fostering sustainable urban development. However, forecasting over extended periods is challenging due to intricate trends, cyclical variations, and interference from outlier data. To address these issues, this study proposes a matrix-based traffic flow prediction model. The model constructs a matrix with periods as rows and similarities as columns, leveraging periodicity and similarity in traffic data. A row-column prediction module links these patterns efficiently, while a fluctuation transformation mitigates the impact of outliers, significantly improving forecast accuracy. Extending the forecast time span to 14 days with hourly intervals, the model was validated using the PeMS dataset provided by the California Department of Transportation. Results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness in capturing complex temporal dynamics, providing a robust tool for long-term traffic prediction.

准确的长期交通预测对于提高交通效率、保障城市安全、促进城市可持续发展至关重要。然而，由于复杂的趋势、周期性变化和异常数据的干扰，长期预测是具有挑战性的。为了解决这些问题，本研究提出了一种基于矩阵的交通流预测模型。该模型利用交通数据的周期性和相似性，构建了以周期为行、相似度为列的矩阵。行-列预测模块有效地将这些模式联系起来，而波动变换减轻了异常值的影响，显著提高了预测精度。该模型利用加州交通部提供的PeMS数据集进行了验证，将预测时间延长至14天，每小时进行一次。结果表明，该模型在捕捉复杂的时间动态方面的有效性，为长期交通预测提供了一个强大的工具。

引用次数: 0

Revisit bus network robustness from the perspective of service-physical dependency 从服务-物理依赖的角度重新审视总线网络的健壮性

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Transportation Letters-The International Journal of Transportation Research

Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/19427867.2025.2470543

Jin-Yang Li , Hui Wang , Jing Teng

This study revisits bus network robustness by addressing the dependency of bus service networks on the underlying physical road network. A novel methodology integrates resistance distance theory with a multilayer physical-service network framework, accounting for disruptions at the road layer and detour mechanisms. Two robustness indices are introduced: the absolute resistance robustness index, which quantifies the overall impact of disruptions, and the relative resistance robustness index, which reflects network redundancy. Using data from 29 cities, the empirical analysis reveals that geographical and socioeconomic factors significantly influence bus network robustness, with higher GDP, flatter terrains, and concentrated urban areas associated with greater relative robustness. Sensitivity analysis identifies terrain compactness as the most influential factor. This methodology advances the theoretical understanding of transportation network resilience and provides practical tools for urban transportation planning. Future research could extend the approach to directional networks and incorporate travel demand data for more refined analyses.

本研究通过解决公共汽车服务网络对底层物理道路网络的依赖性，重新审视了公共汽车网络的鲁棒性。一种新的方法将阻力距离理论与多层物理服务网络框架相结合，考虑了道路层和绕行机制的中断。引入了两个鲁棒性指标：量化中断总体影响的绝对阻力鲁棒性指标和反映网络冗余的相对阻力鲁棒性指标。利用来自29个城市的数据进行实证分析，发现地理和社会经济因素显著影响公交网络的稳健性，GDP越高、地形越平坦、城市集中地区相对稳健性越强。敏感性分析认为地形密实度是最重要的影响因素。该方法促进了对交通网络弹性的理论认识，并为城市交通规划提供了实用工具。未来的研究可以将方法扩展到定向网络，并将旅行需求数据纳入更精确的分析。

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引用次数: 0