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Degradation modeling based on the gamma process with random initial degradation level and random threshold 基于随机初始退化水平和随机阈值的伽玛过程退化建模
IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-01-08 DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2022.2146904
L. A. Rodríguez-Picón, L. C. Méndez-González, Víctor Hugo Flores-Ochoa, Iván JC Pérez Olguín, Vicente García
ABSTRACT The stochastic modeling of performance characteristics is an important approach for the quality assessment of products. As part of the stochastic modeling, it is possible to consider different variation sources such as temporal, unit-to-unit heterogeneity and measurement error. These sources have been incorporated into different stochastic processes in the literature. Considering the unit-to-unit heterogeneity, two sources of variation can be found for certain products, particularly when the initial level and the critical threshold vary from unit-to-unit. Although, these sources have been studied separately, they have not been studied simultaneously. In this paper, a modeling approach is proposed which considers the gamma process to take into account the temporal uncertainty and the initial degradation level and the critical threshold level as two additional sources of variation. The modeling consists in first obtaining the distribution of the subtraction of the critical threshold and the initial level via a deconvolution operation. Then, the cumulative distribution function of the first passage time distribution is obtained through numerical integration. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, where different scenarios are analyzed. Furthermore, this approach is applied to a fatigue-crack propagation case study, from which a reliability assessment is performed.
性能特征的随机建模是产品质量评价的重要方法。作为随机建模的一部分,可以考虑不同的变化源,如时间、单位间异质性和测量误差。这些来源已纳入不同的随机过程在文献中。考虑到单位间的异质性,对于某些产品可以发现两个变异来源,特别是当初始水平和临界阈值因单位而异时。虽然这些来源已分别研究过,但没有同时研究过。本文提出了一种考虑时间不确定性、初始退化水平和临界阈值水平作为两个附加变化源的伽马过程建模方法。建模包括首先通过反褶积运算获得临界阈值与初始水平相减的分布。然后,通过数值积分得到一次通过时间分布的累积分布函数。通过仿真研究来评估该方法的性能,并对不同的场景进行了分析。此外,将该方法应用于疲劳裂纹扩展案例研究,并从中进行可靠性评估。
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引用次数: 0
Reliability analysis of redundant retrial machining system subject to standby switching failure 备用切换故障下冗余再加工系统的可靠性分析
IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2022.2132450
Kuo-Hsiung Wang, Chia-Huang Wu, T. Yen
ABSTRACT With the rapid development of the Internet and hardware, cloud computing has been widely applied in various industries. Supporting services using high-quality and reliable communications equipment with an effective repair system is essential. A potential application of a cloud computing system for online data analysis services with multiple virtual machines is presented herein. The primary and standby virtual machines are both assumed to be unreliable. In this study, we analyze a retrial machine repair system with warm standbys and switching failure. When the repair facility is inaccessible, the failed machine joins a retrial pool and tries to access the repair service after a random period. The Laplace transform technique and matrix-analytical method are employed to derive the system performance measures of the reliability and mean time to failure. Moreover, numerical results are provided to investigate the effects of system parameters on system performances.
随着互联网和硬件的飞速发展,云计算在各行各业得到了广泛的应用。使用高质量和可靠的通信设备以及有效的维修系统的支持服务是必不可少的。本文提出了一种用于多虚拟机在线数据分析服务的云计算系统的潜在应用。假设主虚拟机和备用虚拟机都不可靠。本研究分析了一种具有热备和开关故障的重审机维修系统。当维修设施不可访问时,故障机器加入重试池,并在随机周期后尝试访问维修服务。采用拉普拉斯变换技术和矩阵解析方法推导了系统可靠性和平均无故障时间的性能度量。最后给出了系统参数对系统性能影响的数值结果。
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引用次数: 1
Interval estimation of the two-parameter exponential constant stress accelerated life test model under Type-II censoring ii型截割下双参数指数恒应力加速寿命试验模型的区间估计
IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2022.2147688
Wenhui Wu, B. Wang, Jiayan Chen, Jiuzhou Miao, Qingyuan Guan
ABSTRACT In this paper, interval estimation of the two-parameter exponential distribution based on constant-stress accelerated life test data under Type-II censoring is studied. The life-stress models of the scale and location parameters are assumed to be log-linear. The maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters are obtained. The exact and approximate confidence intervals for the parameters in the life-stress model of the scale parameter are developed. The generalized confidence intervals for the parameters in the life-stress model of the location parameter, and mean and reliability function at the designed stress level are derived. The performance of the proposed generalized confidence intervals is assessed by the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is used to illustrate our methods.
本文研究了ii型截割条件下恒应力加速寿命试验数据的双参数指数分布区间估计问题。假设尺度和位置参数的寿命应力模型为对数线性模型。得到了模型参数的极大似然估计量。给出了尺度参数寿命应力模型中各参数的精确置信区间和近似置信区间。导出了定位参数寿命-应力模型中参数的广义置信区间,以及设计应力水平下的均值和可靠度函数。通过蒙特卡洛仿真对所提出的广义置信区间的性能进行了评价。最后,用一个实际的例子来说明我们的方法。
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引用次数: 2
The additive Perks distribution and its applications in reliability analysis 加性珀克斯分布及其在可靠性分析中的应用
IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2022.2148884
L. C. Méndez-González, L. A. Rodríguez-Picón, Ivan Juan Carlos Pérez Olguín, Vicente García, David Luviano-Cruz
ABSTRACT In this paper, the Additive Perks Distribution (ADP) is presented; this distribution describes the behavior of the bathtub curve, which is one of the most deeply rooted concepts in reliability analysis. The proposed distribution is based on the sum of the positive and negative hazard rate functions of the Perks distribution. ADP’s statistical properties include Measures of Central Tendency, moments, moment generating function, statistical order, residual lifetime, reversed residual lifetime, Rényi entropy, time-varying, and life-stress relationship modeling presented. For estimating the ADP parameters, the Maximum Likelihood Method is used. On the other hand, the APD is tested in three case studies and compared with other distributions that can describe the failure rates in a bathtub curve. The results from the case studies showed that the APD is a good choice for describing the failure times in the shape of a bathtub curve.
本文给出了可加性Perks分布(ADP);这种分布描述了浴缸曲线的行为,这是可靠性分析中最根深蒂固的概念之一。所提出的分布是基于Perks分布的正风险率函数和负风险率函数的总和。ADP的统计特性包括中心趋势度量、矩、矩生成函数、统计顺序、剩余寿命、反向剩余寿命、Rényi熵、时变和寿命-应力关系模型。为了估计ADP参数,使用了最大似然法。另一方面,APD在三个案例研究中进行了测试,并与其他可以描述浴缸曲线中故障率的分布进行了比较。案例研究的结果表明,APD是以浴缸曲线形式描述故障次数的一个很好的选择。
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引用次数: 4
An efficient and effective method for reliability assessment of project duration 一种高效、有效的工程工期可靠性评估方法
IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2022.2138113
Lou Ren, Pei-Pei Li, Yan-Gang Zhao
ABSTRACT The reliability assessment of the project duration is essential for successful project management; this has prompted the development of various methods to assess whether a project will be completed within the target duration. In this study, an efficient and effective method for assessing the reliability of project duration based on the method of moments is proposed, which utilizes bivariate-dimension reduction technology and the third-moment reliability index. The proposed method can avoid the extensive calculations of various factors in the commonly used methods: the correlation coefficients between each pair of paths and the joint failure probability of each pair of representative paths. From two numerical examples, it can be concluded that the proposed method can obtain almost the same results as Monte Carlo simulations with less calculation.
摘要项目工期的可靠性评估对于项目管理的成功至关重要;这促使人们开发了各种方法来评估项目是否会在目标期限内完成。本研究利用二元降维技术和三阶矩可靠性指标,提出了一种基于矩量法的工程工期可靠性评估方法。所提出的方法可以避免常用方法中各种因素的大量计算:每对路径之间的相关系数和每对代表路径的联合失效概率。通过两个算例可以得出结论,该方法可以在较少的计算量下获得与蒙特卡罗模拟几乎相同的结果。
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引用次数: 1
Performance analysis of cognitive wireless retrial queueing networks with admission control for secondary users 具有二次用户准入控制的认知无线重试排队网络的性能分析
IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2022.2136360
B. Krishna Kumar, R. Navaneetha Krishnan, R. Sankar, R. Rukmani
ABSTRACT This paper designs and analyzes a novel single-channel cognitive radio retrial queueing network wherein a waiting line buffer is deployed for secondary users (SUs). A finite source system generates the primary users (PUs). Apart from these, PUs having preemptive priority over SUs, the effect of retrial/repeated attempts of PUs is taken into consideration. In such a system, the stability condition and the joint steady-state probability distribution of PUs and SUs are studied by using the matrix-analytic method. Several performance metrics of interest, such as blocking probability, throughput, mean waiting time, etc., have been determined. The first-passage time to reach a congestion level in the SUs waiting line buffer and its related characteristics are investigated by employing the first-step principle. In addition, correlation coefficients for various events of SUs and PUs during this period have been assessed. Finally, extensive numerical results are presented graphically for the system insights.
摘要:本文设计并分析了一种新的单通道认知无线电重试排队网络,该网络为辅助用户(SUs)部署了等待队列缓冲区。有限源系统生成主用户(pu)。除此之外,对于具有抢占优先级的pu,还考虑了pu的重试/重复尝试的影响。在这种系统中,采用矩阵分析法研究了系统的稳定性条件和系统的联合稳态概率分布。已经确定了几个感兴趣的性能指标,例如阻塞概率、吞吐量、平均等待时间等。利用第一步原理,研究了SUs排队缓冲区到达拥塞水平的第一次通过时间及其相关特性。此外,还评估了这段时间内SUs和pu各种事件的相关系数。最后,广泛的数值结果以图形形式呈现,以供系统洞察。
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引用次数: 1
Data analysis of progressive‐stress accelerated life tests with group effects 具有组效应的渐进应力加速寿命试验数据分析
IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2022.2147690
Liangliang Zhuang, Ancha Xu, Binbing Wang, Yuguo Xue, Songzi Zhang
ABSTRACT Progressive-stress accelerated life testing (PSALT) is a special type of experiment that tests the lifetime of a product with continuously varying stress levels. Due to the limitations of testing equipments and costs, the lifetime data collected by PSALT are usually censored and have group effects. In order to deal with the two characteristics in the data, this paper presents a novel PSALT model with group effects under progressive censoring. Two-stage and Gauss-Hermite quadrature methods are proposed to estimate the model parameters, while the interval estimates are constructed by bootstrap and the asymptotic theorem, respectively. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the proposed model with the traditional models without group effects in terms of the relative bias and root mean squared error under different scenarios. The results show that the proposed model can detect group-to-group variation, and that the models without group effects will result in large biases for estimating the characteristic lifetime of the product. Finally, the proposed model is validated by a real dataset.
渐进式应力加速寿命试验(PSALT)是一种特殊类型的试验,用于测试具有连续变化应力水平的产品的寿命。由于测试设备和成本的限制,PSALT收集的寿命数据通常会被删节,并具有群效应。为了处理数据中的这两个特征,本文提出了一种具有群效应的PSALT模型。采用两阶段法和高斯-埃尔米特正交法估计模型参数,分别采用自举法和渐近定理构造区间估计。通过不同情景下的相对偏倚和均方根误差的仿真研究,将所提出的模型与无群体效应的传统模型进行比较。结果表明,所提出的模型可以检测到群体间的差异,而没有群体效应的模型在估计产品的特征寿命时将导致较大的偏差。最后,通过实际数据集对该模型进行了验证。
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引用次数: 3
Joint optimization of production lot-sizing and condition-based maintenance in an imperfect production process with dependent indicators 具有相关指标的不完全生产过程中生产批量大小和基于条件的维护的联合优化
IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2022-11-14 DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2022.2126263
Nan Zhang, Sen Tian, Bin Liu, Jun Zhang
ABSTRACT This paper addresses the integrated optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity and the condition-based maintenance policy of a deteriorating manufacturing system. The considered facility produces a single type of product and is inspected at the end of each production run. Upon inspection, two dependent indicators are revealed: one implies whether the production process is in control or not and the other one represents the deterioration level of the facility. The dependence between the two indicators is that whenever the facility deterioration exceeds a pre-determined level, the system becomes more vulnerable such that the production process may switch to the out-of-control state. In the out-of-control state, a proportion of defective items is fabricated. Considering the inter-dependencies between production process and machine degradation, this paper develops an integrated production and maintenance model to minimize the overall cost. The expected cost rate in the long run is taken as the objective function to assess the proposed model, where the joint optimization of the lot-sizing and the maintenance policy is developed. The problem is formulated in the context of a semi-Markov decision process and solved with the successive approximation method. A numerical example is given to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model.
摘要本文研究了退化制造系统经济制造数量与状态维修策略的集成优化问题。所考虑的设施生产单一类型的产品,并在每次生产结束时进行检查。通过检查,可以发现两个相关的指标:一个表示生产过程是否在控制之中,另一个表示设施的恶化程度。这两个指标之间的依赖关系是,每当设施恶化超过预先确定的水平时,系统就会变得更加脆弱,以至于生产过程可能会切换到失控状态。在失控状态下,制造出一定比例的次品。考虑到生产过程和机器退化之间的相互依赖关系,本文建立了一个生产和维修集成模型,以使总成本最小化。以长期预期成本率为目标函数对模型进行评价,提出了批量和维修策略的联合优化问题。该问题在半马尔可夫决策过程的背景下表述,并采用逐次逼近方法求解。最后通过数值算例说明了该模型的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical inference and optimum life-testing plans with joint progressively type-II censoring scheme 具有联合渐进II型截尾方案的统计推断和最优寿命测试方案
IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2022-11-11 DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2022.2071535
Chien-Tai Lin, Yen-Chou Chen, Tzu‐Chi Yeh, H. K. T. Ng
ABSTRACT This article discusses the estimation of model parameters and the determination of optimal life-testing plans for Weibull-distributed lifetimes under a joint progressive Type-II censoring scheme. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates numerically and propose a modified variable-neighborhood-search-based approach for determining the optimum joint progressive Type-II censoring scheme. Different optimal criteria, including a cost minimization criterion, the A-optimality criterion, and the D-optimality criterion, are considered. A sensitivity analysis is used to study the effect of misspecification of parameter values on the optimal schemes.
摘要本文讨论了在联合渐进II型截尾方案下威布尔分布寿命的模型参数估计和最优寿命测试计划的确定。我们在数值上获得了最大似然估计,并提出了一种改进的基于可变邻域搜索的方法来确定最优联合渐进II型截尾方案。考虑了不同的最优准则,包括成本最小化准则、a最优准则和D最优准则。灵敏度分析用于研究参数值的错误指定对最优方案的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Combined class of distributions with an exponentiated Weibull family for reliability application 一类具有指数威布尔族的组合分布在可靠性应用中
IF 2.8 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2022-11-06 DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2022.2138111
Minjae Park
ABSTRACT We develop a novel class of distributions after the exponentiated Weibull family and vtub-shaped failure rate for systems are considered and compounded together. This combined class of distributions can be applied to reliability applications using the data, and we investigate its properties. We study the mathematical properties of combined distributions including order statistics and estimation by maximum likelihood. In addition, we implement an EM algorithm to determine unknown parameters using maximum likelihood estimates, and maximum entropy characterizations are discussed under appropriate constraints. Using maximum likelihood estimation, we obtain point estimates and interval estimation for parameters. We develop a novel approach to measuring the reliability of multi-component systems as well as a single-component system and illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach. We apply the approach to real data sets and discuss numeric examples to show the statistical properties of the new compounding class of distributions derived in the paper.
在综合考虑指数威布尔族和vtub形故障率的基础上,提出了一类新的分布。这类组合分布可以应用于使用数据的可靠性应用,我们研究了它的性质。研究了组合分布的数学性质,包括序统计量和极大似然估计。此外,我们实现了一种EM算法,利用最大似然估计来确定未知参数,并讨论了在适当约束下的最大熵表征。利用极大似然估计,得到了参数的点估计和区间估计。我们开发了一种新的方法来测量多组件系统以及单组件系统的可靠性,并说明了所提出方法的实用性。我们将该方法应用于实际数据集,并讨论了数值例子来说明本文导出的新复合类分布的统计性质。
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引用次数: 0
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Quality Technology and Quantitative Management
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