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Accurate bias estimation with applications to focused model selection 准确的偏差估计与集中模型选择的应用
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12696
Ingrid Dæhlen, Nils Lid Hjort, Ingrid Hobæk Haff
We derive approximations to the bias and squared bias with errors of order o(1/n)�$$ oleft(1/nright) $$� where n�$$ n $$� is the sample size. Our results hold for a large class of estimators, including quantiles, transformations of unbiased estimators, maximum likelihood estimators in (possibly) incorrectly specified models, and functions thereof. Furthermore, we use the approximations to derive estimators of the mean squared error (MSE) which are correct to order o(1/n)�$$ oleft(1/nright) $$�. Since the variance of many estimators is of order O(1/n)�$$ Oleft(1/nright) $$�, this level of precision is needed for the MSE estimator to properly take the variance into account. We also formulate a new focused information criterion (FIC) for model selection based on the estimators of the squared bias. Lastly, we illustrate the methods on data containing the number of battle deaths in all major inter-state wars between 1823 and the present day. The application illustrates the potentially large impact of using a less-accurate estimator of the squared bias.
我们得到偏差和平方偏差的近似值,误差为o(1/n) $$ oleft(1/nright) $$阶,其中n $$ n $$是样本量。我们的结果适用于大量的估计量,包括分位数、无偏估计量的变换、(可能)不正确指定模型中的最大似然估计量及其函数。此外,我们使用近似来推导均方误差(MSE)的估计量,其正确到o(1/n) $$ oleft(1/nright) $$阶。由于许多估计器的方差为O(1/n) $$ Oleft(1/nright) $$阶,因此MSE估计器需要这种精度才能适当地考虑方差。我们还提出了一个新的基于偏差平方估计量的模型选择聚焦信息准则(FIC)。最后,我们说明了在1823年至今的所有主要国家间战争中包含战斗死亡人数的数据的方法。该应用说明了使用不太精确的偏差平方估计器可能产生的巨大影响。
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引用次数: 0
A New Paradigm for High‐dimensional Data: Distance‐Based Semiparametric Feature Aggregation Framework via Between‐Subject Attributes 高维数据的新范式:基于主题间属性的距离半参数特征聚合框架
4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12695
Jinyuan Liu, Xinlian Zhang, Tuo Lin, Ruohui Chen, Yuan Zhong, Tian Chen, Tsungchin Wu, Chenyu Liu, Anna Huang, Tanya T. Nguyen, Ellen E. Lee, Dilip V. Jeste, Xin M. Tu
Abstract This article proposes a distance‐based framework incentivized by the paradigm shift towards feature aggregation for high‐dimensional data, which does not rely on the sparse‐feature assumption or the permutation‐based inference. Focusing on distance‐based outcomes that preserve information without truncating any features, a class of semiparametric regression has been developed, which encapsulates multiple sources of high‐dimensional variables using pairwise outcomes of between‐subject attributes. Further, we propose a strategy to address the interlocking correlations among pairs via the U‐statistics‐based estimating equations (UGEE), which correspond to their unique efficient influence function (EIF). Hence, the resulting semiparametric estimators are robust to distributional misspecification while enjoying root‐n consistency and asymptotic optimality to facilitate inference. In essence, the proposed approach not only circumvents information loss due to feature selection but also improves the model's interpretability and computational feasibility. Simulation studies and applications to the human microbiome and wearables data are provided, where the feature dimensions are tens of thousands. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
本文提出了一种基于距离的框架,该框架不依赖于稀疏特征假设或基于排列的推理,它受到了高维数据向特征聚合范式转变的激励。关注基于距离的结果,在不截断任何特征的情况下保留信息,一类半参数回归已经被开发出来,它使用主体之间属性的成对结果封装了多个高维变量源。此外,我们提出了一种策略,通过基于U统计量的估计方程(UGEE)来解决它们之间的连锁相关性,这对应于它们的唯一有效影响函数(EIF)。因此,所得到的半参数估计量对分布错规范具有鲁棒性,同时具有根n一致性和渐近最优性,便于推理。本质上,该方法不仅避免了特征选择带来的信息丢失,而且提高了模型的可解释性和计算可行性。提供了人体微生物组和可穿戴设备数据的模拟研究和应用,其中特征尺寸为数万。这篇文章受版权保护。版权所有。
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引用次数: 0
Maximum likelihood estimator for skew Brownian motion: the convergence rate 偏斜布朗运动的极大似然估计:收敛速率
4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12694
Antoine Lejay, Sara Mazzonetto
Abstract We give a thorough description of the asymptotic property of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the skewness parameter of a Skew Brownian Motion (SBM). Thanks to recent results on the Central Limit Theorem of the rate of convergence of estimators for the SBM, we prove a conjecture left open that the MLE has asymptotically a mixed normal distribution involving the local time with a rate of convergence of order . We also give a series expansion of the MLE and study the asymptotic behavior of the score and its derivatives, as well as their variation with the skewness parameter. In particular, we exhibit a specific behavior when the SBM is actually a Brownian motion, and quantify the explosion of the coefficients of the expansion when the skewness parameter is close to or 1.
摘要给出了斜布朗运动(SBM)偏度参数的极大似然估计(MLE)的渐近性质。基于最近关于SBM估计量收敛速度的中心极限定理的一些结果,我们证明了一个未解的猜想,即MLE具有一个渐近的包含局部时间的混合正态分布,其收敛速度为阶。我们还给出了MLE的级数展开式,并研究了分数及其导数的渐近行为,以及它们随偏度参数的变化。特别是,我们展示了当SBM实际上是布朗运动时的特定行为,并量化了当偏度参数接近或1时膨胀系数的爆炸。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of the Adjusted Standard‐deviatile for Extreme Risks 极端风险的调整标准差估计
4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-22 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12693
Haoyu Chen, Tiantian Mao, Fan Yang
Abstract In this paper, we modify the Bayes risk for the expectile, the so‐called variantile risk measure, to better capture extreme risks. The modified risk measure is called the adjusted standard‐deviatile. First, we derive the asymptotic expansions of the adjusted standard‐deviatile. Next, based on the first‐order asymptotic expansion, we propose two efficient estimation methods for the adjusted standard‐deviatile at intermediate and extreme levels. By using techniques from extreme value theory, the asymptotic normality is proved for both estimators for independent and identically distributed observations and for ‐mixing time series, respectively. Simulations and real data applications are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed estimators.
在本文中,我们修改了期望值的贝叶斯风险,即所谓的可变风险度量,以更好地捕捉极端风险。修正后的风险度量称为调整标准差。首先,我们导出了调整标准差的渐近展开式。其次,基于一阶渐近展开式,我们提出了两种有效的中间和极端水平调整标准差估计方法。通过使用极值理论的技术,分别证明了独立和同分布观测值和混合时间序列的估计量的渐近正态性。通过仿真和实际数据应用来检验所提出的估计器的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Nearly Unstable Integer‐Valued ARCH Process and Unit Root Testing 近不稳定整值ARCH过程与单位根检验
4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12689
Wagner Barreto-Souza, Ngai Hang Chan
Abstract This paper introduces a Nearly Unstable INteger‐valued AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (NU‐INARCH) process for dealing with count time series data. It is proved that a proper normalization of the NU‐INARCH process weakly converges to a Cox–Ingersoll–Ross diffusion in the Skorohod topology. The asymptotic distribution of the conditional least squares estimator of the correlation parameter is established as a functional of certain stochastic integrals. Numerical experiments based on Monte Carlo simulations are provided to verify the behavior of the asymptotic distribution under finite samples. These simulations reveal that the nearly unstable approach provides satisfactory and better results than those based on the stationarity assumption even when the true process is not that close to nonstationarity. A unit root test is proposed and its Type‐I error and power are examined via Monte Carlo simulations. As an illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to the daily number of deaths due to COVID‐19 in the United Kingdom.
摘要介绍了一种处理计数时间序列数据的近不稳定整值自回归条件异方差(NU - INARCH)处理方法。证明了NU - INARCH过程的适当归一化在Skorohod拓扑上弱收敛为Cox-Ingersoll-Ross扩散。建立了相关参数的条件最小二乘估计的渐近分布,并给出了相关参数的条件最小二乘估计是若干随机积分的泛函。给出了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的数值实验,验证了有限样本下渐近分布的性质。这些模拟结果表明,即使真实过程不太接近非平稳,近似不稳定方法也比基于平稳假设的方法提供了令人满意和更好的结果。提出了一种单位根检验方法,并通过蒙特卡罗模拟检验了其I型误差和功率。作为一个例子,建议的方法适用于英国因COVID - 19导致的每日死亡人数。
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引用次数: 0
Kernel Mean Embedding of Probability Measures and its Applications to Functional Data Analysis 概率测度的核均值嵌入及其在函数数据分析中的应用
4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12691
Saeed Hayati, Kenji Fukumizu, Afshin Parvardeh
Abstract This study intends to introduce kernel mean embedding of probability measures over infinite‐dimensional separable Hilbert spaces induced by functional response statistical models. The embedded function represents the concentration of probability measures in small open neighborhoods, which identifies a pseudo‐likelihood and fosters a rich framework for statistical inference. Utilizing Maximum Mean Discrepancy, we devise new tests in functional response models. The performance of new derived tests is evaluated against competitors in three major problems in functional data analysis including function‐on‐scalar regression, functional one‐way ANOVA, and equality of covariance operators. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
摘要本研究旨在引入由功能响应统计模型诱导的无限维可分离希尔伯特空间上概率测度的核均值嵌入。嵌入函数表示小的开放邻域中概率测度的集中,它识别了伪似然,并为统计推断提供了丰富的框架。利用最大平均差异,我们在功能响应模型中设计了新的测试。在功能数据分析的三个主要问题中,对新衍生测试的性能进行了评估,包括函数对标量回归、功能单向方差分析和协方差算子的等式。这篇文章受版权保护。版权所有。
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引用次数: 3
Envelopes for multivariate linear regression with linearly constrained coefficients 具有线性约束系数的多元线性回归的包络
4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12690
Dennis Cook, Liliana Forzani, Lan Liu
Abstract A constrained multivariate linear model is a multivariate linear model with the columns of its coefficient matrix constrained to lie in a known subspace. This class of models includes those typically used to study growth curves and longitudinal data. Envelope methods have been proposed to improve the estimation efficiency in unconstrained multivariate linear models, but have not yet been developed for constrained models. We pursue that development in this article. We first compare the standard envelope estimator with the standard estimator arising from a constrained multivariate model in terms of bias and efficiency. To further improve efficiency, we propose a novel envelope estimator based on a constrained multivariate model. We show the advantage of our proposals by simulations and by studying the probiotic capacity to reduced Salmonella infection. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
约束多元线性模型是指其系数矩阵列约束在已知子空间中的多元线性模型。这类模型包括那些通常用于研究增长曲线和纵向数据的模型。为了提高无约束多元线性模型的估计效率,已经提出了包络方法,但对于有约束模型尚未发展起来。我们将在本文中探讨这一发展。我们首先比较了标准包络估计量和由约束多元模型产生的标准估计量在偏差和效率方面。为了进一步提高效率,我们提出了一种新的基于约束多元模型的包络估计器。我们通过模拟和研究益生菌减少沙门氏菌感染的能力来证明我们的建议的优势。这篇文章受版权保护。版权所有。
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引用次数: 1
Covariance‐based soft clustering of functional data based on the Wasserstein‐Procrustes metric 基于Wasserstein - Procrustes度量的基于协方差的功能数据软聚类
4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-05 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12692
Valentina Masarotto, Guido Masarotto
Abstract We consider the problem of clustering functional data according to their covariance structure. We contribute a soft clustering methodology based on the Wasserstein‐Procrustes distance, where the in‐between cluster variability is penalised by a term proportional to the entropy of the partition matrix. In this way, each covariance operator can be partially classified into more than one group. Such soft classification allows for clusters to overlap, and arises naturally in situations where the separation between all or some of the clusters is not well‐defined. We also discuss how to estimate the number of groups and to test for the presence of any cluster structure. The algorithm is illustrated using simulated and real data. An R implementation is available in the Supplementary materials. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
摘要根据函数数据的协方差结构,研究了函数数据的聚类问题。我们提出了一种基于Wasserstein - Procrustes距离的软聚类方法,其中聚类之间的可变性由与划分矩阵的熵成比例的项来惩罚。这样,每个协方差算子可以部分地划分为多个组。这种软分类允许集群重叠,并且在所有或某些集群之间的分离没有很好定义的情况下自然出现。我们还讨论了如何估计组的数量和测试是否存在任何簇结构。用仿真数据和实际数据对该算法进行了说明。在补充资料中有R的实现。这篇文章受版权保护。版权所有。
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引用次数: 0
Greenland, S. (2023). Divergence vs. decision P‐values: A distinction worth making in theory and keeping in practice. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 50, 1–35, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sjos.12625 格陵兰,S.(2023)。分歧与决策P值:一个值得在理论和实践中做出的区分。北欧统计杂志,50,1-35,https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sjos.12625
4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12687
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引用次数: 0
Empirical and Instance–Dependent Estimation of Markov Chain and Mixing Time 马尔可夫链和混合时间的经验估计和实例相关估计
4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-02 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12686
Geoffrey Wolfer
Abstract We address the problem of estimating the mixing time of a Markov chain from a single trajectory of observations. Unlike most previous works which employed Hilbert space methods to estimate spectral gaps, we opt for an approach based on contraction with respect to total variation. Specifically, we estimate the contraction coefficient introduced in Wolfer (2020), inspired from Dobrushin's. This quantity, unlike the spectral gap, controls the mixing time up to strong universal constants and remains applicable to nonreversible chains. We improve existing fully data‐dependent confidence intervals around this contraction coefficient, which are both easier to compute and thinner than spectral counterparts. Furthermore, we introduce a novel analysis beyond the worst‐case scenario by leveraging additional information about the transition matrix. This allows us to derive instance‐dependent rates for estimating the matrix with respect to the induced uniform norm, and some of its mixing properties.
摘要研究了从单个观测轨迹估计马尔可夫链混合时间的问题。与以往大多数使用希尔伯特空间方法来估计谱隙的工作不同,我们选择了一种基于总变化的收缩方法。具体来说,我们估计了Wolfer(2020)中引入的收缩系数,该系数受Dobrushin的启发。与谱隙不同,这个量控制混合时间直到强通用常数,并且仍然适用于不可逆链。我们改进了该收缩系数周围现有的完全依赖于数据的置信区间,它比光谱对应的置信区间更容易计算和更薄。此外,我们通过利用关于转移矩阵的附加信息,引入了一种超越最坏情况的新分析。这使我们能够推导出与实例相关的速率,用于估计相对于诱导的均匀范数的矩阵,以及它的一些混合特性。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
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