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Lancaster correlation: A new dependence measure linked to maximum correlation 兰开斯特相关性:与最大相关性相关联的一种新的依赖性测量方法
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12733
Hajo Holzmann, Bernhard Klar
We suggest novel correlation coefficients which equal the maximum correlation for a class of bivariate Lancaster distributions while being only slightly smaller than maximum correlation for a variety of further bivariate distributions. In contrast to maximum correlation, however, our correlation coefficients allow for rank and moment‐based estimators which are simple to compute and have tractable asymptotic distributions. Confidence intervals resulting from these asymptotic approximations and the covariance bootstrap show good finite‐sample coverage. In a simulation, the power of asymptotic as well as permutation tests for independence based on our correlation measures compares favorably with competing methods based on distance correlation or rank coefficients for functional dependence, among others. Moreover, for the bivariate normal distribution, our correlation coefficients equal the absolute value of the Pearson correlation, an attractive feature for practitioners which is not shared by various competitors. We illustrate the practical usefulness of our methods in applications to two real data sets.
我们提出了一些新的相关系数,这些相关系数等于兰开斯特二元分布的最大相关系数,而对于其他各种二元分布,相关系数仅略低于最大相关系数。然而,与最大相关性不同的是,我们的相关系数允许使用基于秩和矩的估计值,这些估计值易于计算,并且具有可控的渐近分布。由这些渐近近似值和协方差自举法得出的置信区间显示出良好的有限样本覆盖率。在一项模拟实验中,基于我们的相关性度量的渐近检验和置换检验的独立性,与基于距离相关性或秩系数的函数依赖性等竞争方法相比,都具有更强的说服力。此外,对于二元正态分布,我们的相关系数等于皮尔逊相关性的绝对值,这对从业人员来说是一个很有吸引力的特点,而这是其他竞争者所不具备的。我们在两个真实数据集的应用中说明了我们的方法的实用性。
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引用次数: 0
Validation of point process predictions with proper scoring rules 用适当的评分规则验证点流程预测
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12736
Claudio Heinrich‐Mertsching, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Peter Guttorp, Max Schneider
We introduce a class of proper scoring rules for evaluating spatial point process forecasts based on summary statistics. These scoring rules rely on Monte Carlo approximations of expectations and can therefore easily be evaluated for any point process model that can be simulated. In this regard, they are more flexible than the commonly used logarithmic score and other existing proper scores for point process predictions. The scoring rules allow for evaluating the calibration of a model to specific aspects of a point process, such as its spatial distribution or tendency toward clustering. Using simulations, we analyze the sensitivity of our scoring rules to different aspects of the forecasts and compare it to the logarithmic score. Applications to earthquake occurrences in northern California, United States and the spatial distribution of Pacific silver firs in Findley Lake Reserve in Washington highlight the usefulness of our scores for scientific model selection.
我们引入了一类适当的评分规则,用于评估基于汇总统计的空间点过程预测。这些评分规则依赖于蒙特卡罗期望近似值,因此可以很容易地对任何可以模拟的点过程模型进行评估。在这方面,它们比常用的对数评分和其他现有的点过程预测适当评分更加灵活。评分规则允许根据点过程的特定方面(如空间分布或聚类趋势)来评估模型的校准。通过模拟,我们分析了评分规则对预测不同方面的敏感性,并与对数评分进行了比较。在美国加利福尼亚州北部发生的地震和华盛顿州芬德利湖保护区太平洋银杉的空间分布中的应用,凸显了我们的评分对科学模型选择的实用性。
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引用次数: 0
Inference for all variants of the multivariate coefficient of variation in factorial designs 因子设计中多元变异系数所有变量的推理
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12740
Marc Ditzhaus, Łukasz Smaga
The multivariate coefficient of variation (MCV) is an attractive and easy‐to‐interpret effect size for the dispersion in multivariate data. Recently, the first inference methods for the MCV were proposed for general factorial designs. However, the inference methods are primarily derived for one special MCV variant while there are several reasonable proposals. Moreover, when rejecting a global null hypothesis, a more in‐depth analysis is of interest to find the significant contrasts of MCV. This paper concerns extending the nonparametric permutation procedure to the other MCV variants and a max‐type test for post hoc analysis. To improve the small sample performance of the latter, we suggest a novel bootstrap strategy and prove its asymptotic validity. The actual performance of all proposed tests is compared in an extensive simulation study and illustrated by real data analysis. All methods are implemented in the R package GFDmcv, available on CRAN.
多变量变异系数(MCV)是多变量数据离散度的一种有吸引力且易于解释的效应大小。最近,首次提出了针对一般因子设计的 MCV 推断方法。然而,这些推断方法主要是针对一种特殊的 MCV 变体得出的,而目前有几种合理的建议。此外,在拒绝全局零假设时,更深入的分析对找到 MCV 的显著对比很有意义。本文涉及将非参数置换程序扩展到其他 MCV 变体,以及用于事后分析的最大类型检验。为了提高后者的小样本性能,我们提出了一种新的引导策略,并证明了其渐近有效性。我们通过广泛的模拟研究比较了所有建议检验的实际性能,并通过实际数据分析进行了说明。所有方法都在 R 软件包 GFDmcv 中实现,可在 CRAN 上下载。
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引用次数: 0
A conversation with Nils Lid Hjort 与尼尔斯-利德-希约尔特的对话
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12732
Ørnulf Borgan, Ingrid K. Glad
Professor (now emeritus) Nils Lid Hjort has through more than four decades been one of the most original and productive statisticians in Norway, contributing to a wide range of topics such as survival analysis, Bayesian nonparametrics, empirical likelihood, density estimation, focused inference, model selection, and confidence distributions. This conversation, which took place at the University of Oslo in December 2023, sheds light on how Nils Hjort's curious and open mind, coupled with a deep understanding, has enabled him to seamlessly navigate between different fields of statistics and its applications. Our aim is to encourage the statistics community to always be on the lookout for unexpected connections in statistical science and to embrace unexpected encounters with fellow statisticians from around the world.
尼尔斯-利德-希约尔特教授(现为名誉教授)四十多年来一直是挪威最具原创性和最有成就的统计学家之一,在生存分析、贝叶斯非参数、经验似然法、密度估计、重点推断、模型选择和置信度分布等广泛领域做出了贡献。这次对话于 2023 年 12 月在奥斯陆大学举行,它揭示了 Nils Hjort 如何以其好奇、开放的心态和深刻的理解力,在统计学及其应用的不同领域之间游刃有余。我们的目标是鼓励统计界始终关注统计科学中的意外联系,并与来自世界各地的统计学家同仁不期而遇。
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引用次数: 0
Cox processes driven by transformed Gaussian processes on linear networks—A review and new contributions 线性网络上由变换高斯过程驱动的考克斯过程--回顾与新贡献
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12720
Jesper Møller, Jakob G. Rasmussen
There is a lack of point process models on linear networks. For an arbitrary linear network, we consider new models for a Cox process with an isotropic pair correlation function obtained in various ways by transforming an isotropic Gaussian process which is used for driving the random intensity function of the Cox process. In particular, we introduce three model classes given by log Gaussian, interrupted, and permanental Cox processes on linear networks, and consider for the first time statistical procedures and applications for parametric families of such models. Moreover, we construct new simulation algorithms for Gaussian processes on linear networks and discuss whether the geodesic metric or the resistance metric should be used for the kind of Cox processes studied in this paper.
线性网络缺乏点过程模型。对于任意线性网络,我们考虑了具有各向同性对相关函数的 Cox 过程的新模型,该模型是通过转换各向同性高斯过程(用于驱动 Cox 过程的随机强度函数)以各种方式获得的。特别是,我们引入了线性网络上对数高斯过程、间断过程和永久考克斯过程给出的三类模型,并首次考虑了此类模型参数族的统计程序和应用。此外,我们还为线性网络上的高斯过程构建了新的模拟算法,并讨论了本文研究的这类 Cox 过程应该使用大地度量还是阻力度量。
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引用次数: 0
On maximizing the likelihood function of general geostatistical models 论一般地质统计模型似然函数的最大化
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-05-07 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12722
Tingjin Chu
General geostatistical models are powerful tools for analyzing spatial datasets. A two‐step estimation based on the likelihood function is widely used by researchers, but several theoretical and computational challenges remain to be addressed. First, it is unclear whether there is a unique global maximizer of the log‐likelihood function, a seemingly simple but theoretically challenging question. The second challenge is the convexity of the log‐likelihood function. Besides these two challenges in maximizing the likelihood function, we also study the theoretical property of the two‐step estimation. Unlike many previous works, our results can apply to the non‐twice differentiable covariance functions. In the simulation studies, three optimization algorithms are evaluated in terms of maximizing the log‐likelihood functions.
一般地质统计模型是分析空间数据集的强大工具。研究人员广泛使用基于似然函数的两步估计法,但仍有一些理论和计算难题有待解决。首先,对数似然函数是否存在唯一的全局最大化尚不清楚,这是一个看似简单但在理论上极具挑战性的问题。第二个挑战是对数似然函数的凸性。除了最大化似然函数的这两个挑战,我们还研究了两步估计的理论属性。与之前的许多研究不同,我们的结果可以适用于非两次可微分协方差函数。在模拟研究中,我们从最大化对数似然函数的角度评估了三种优化算法。
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引用次数: 0
Mahalanobis balancing: A multivariate perspective on approximate covariate balancing 马哈拉诺比斯平衡:近似协变量平衡的多变量视角
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12721
Yimin Dai, Ying Yan
In the past decade, various exact balancing‐based weighting methods were introduced to the causal inference literature. It eliminates covariate imbalance by imposing balancing constraints in a certain optimization problem, which can nevertheless be infeasible when there is bad overlap between the covariate distributions in the treated and control groups or when the covariates are high dimensional. Recently, approximate balancing was proposed as an alternative balancing framework. It resolves the feasibility issue by using inequality moment constraints instead. However, it can be difficult to select the threshold parameters. Moreover, moment constraints may not fully capture the discrepancy of covariate distributions. In this paper, we propose Mahalanobis balancing to approximately balance covariate distributions from a multivariate perspective. We use a quadratic constraint to control overall imbalance with a single threshold parameter, which can be tuned by a simple selection procedure. We show that the dual problem of Mahalanobis balancing is an norm‐based regularized regression problem, and establish interesting connection to propensity score models. We derive asymptotic properties, discuss the high‐dimensional scenario, and make extensive numerical comparisons with existing balancing methods.
在过去十年中,各种基于精确平衡的加权方法被引入因果推理文献。这种方法通过在某个优化问题中施加平衡约束来消除协变量的不平衡,但当治疗组和对照组的协变量分布存在严重重叠或协变量维度较高时,这种方法可能并不可行。最近,有人提出了近似平衡作为另一种平衡框架。它通过使用不等矩约束来解决可行性问题。然而,选择阈值参数可能比较困难。此外,矩约束可能无法完全捕捉协变量分布的差异。在本文中,我们提出了马哈拉诺比斯平衡法,从多变量的角度近似平衡协变量分布。我们使用二次约束来控制整体不平衡,只需一个阈值参数,该参数可通过简单的选择程序进行调整。我们证明了 Mahalanobis 平衡的对偶问题是一个基于规范的正则化回归问题,并与倾向评分模型建立了有趣的联系。我们推导了渐近特性,讨论了高维情况,并与现有的平衡方法进行了广泛的数值比较。
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引用次数: 0
Asymptotic properties of resampling‐based processes for the average treatment effect in observational studies with competing risks 具有竞争风险的观察性研究中基于重采样过程的平均治疗效果的渐近特性
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12714
Jasmin Rühl, Sarah Friedrich
In observational studies with time‐to‐event outcomes, the g‐formula can be used to estimate a treatment effect in the presence of confounding factors. However, the asymptotic distribution of the corresponding stochastic process is complicated and thus not suitable for deriving confidence intervals or time‐simultaneous confidence bands for the average treatment effect. A common remedy are resampling‐based approximations, with Efron's nonparametric bootstrap being the standard tool in practice. We investigate the large sample properties of three different resampling approaches and prove their asymptotic validity in a setting with time‐to‐event data subject to competing risks. The usage of these approaches is demonstrated by an analysis of the effect of physical activity on the risk of knee replacement among patients with advanced knee osteoarthritis.
在具有时间到事件结果的观察性研究中,g 公式可用于估计存在混杂因素时的治疗效果。不过,相应随机过程的渐近分布比较复杂,因此不适合用于推导平均治疗效果的置信区间或时间同步置信带。常用的补救方法是基于重采样的近似方法,其中埃夫隆的非参数自举法是实践中的标准工具。我们研究了三种不同的重采样方法的大样本特性,并证明了它们在具有竞争风险的时间到事件数据中的渐近有效性。通过分析体育锻炼对晚期膝关节骨性关节炎患者膝关节置换风险的影响,证明了这些方法的用途。
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引用次数: 0
Minimax estimation of functional principal components from noisy discretized functional data 从噪声离散函数数据中最小估计函数主成分
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12719
Ryad Belhakem, Franck Picard, Vincent Rivoirard, Angelina Roche
Functional Principal Component Analysis is a reference method for dimension reduction of curve data. Its theoretical properties are now well understood in the simplified case where the sample curves are fully observed without noise. However, functional data are noisy and necessarily observed on a finite discretization grid. Common practice consists in smoothing the data and then to compute the functional estimates, but the impact of this denoising step on the procedure's statistical performance are rarely considered. Here we prove new convergence rates for functional principal component estimators. We introduce a double asymptotic framework: one corresponding to the sampling size and a second to the size of the grid. We prove that estimates based on projection onto histograms show optimal rates in a minimax sense. Theoretical results are illustrated on simulated data and the method is applied to the visualization of genomic data.
函数主成分分析法是一种用于降低曲线数据维度的参考方法。在简化的情况下,即样本曲线完全被观测到而没有噪声,人们现在已经很好地理解了它的理论特性。然而,函数数据是有噪声的,而且必须在有限离散网格上进行观测。通常的做法是对数据进行平滑处理,然后计算函数估计值,但很少考虑这一去噪步骤对程序统计性能的影响。在此,我们证明了函数式主成分估计器的新收敛率。我们引入了双重渐近框架:一个与采样大小相对应,另一个与网格大小相对应。我们证明,基于投影到直方图的估计值显示出最小值意义上的最优率。我们在模拟数据上对理论结果进行了说明,并将该方法应用于基因组数据的可视化。
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引用次数: 0
A two‐step estimation procedure for semiparametric mixture cure models 半参数混合治愈模型的两步估计程序
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12713
Eni Musta, Valentin Patilea, Ingrid Van Keilegom
In survival analysis, cure models have been developed to account for the presence of cured subjects that will never experience the event of interest. Mixture cure models with a parametric model for the incidence and a semiparametric model for the survival of the susceptibles are particularly common in practice. Because of the latent cure status, maximum likelihood estimation is performed via the iterative EM algorithm. Here, we focus on the cure probabilities and propose a two‐step procedure to improve upon the maximum likelihood estimator when the sample size is not large. The new method is based on presmoothing by first constructing a nonparametric estimator and then projecting it on the desired parametric class. We investigate the theoretical properties of the resulting estimator and show through an extensive simulation study for the logistic‐Cox model that it outperforms the existing method. Practical use of the method is illustrated through two melanoma datasets.
在生存分析中,人们开发了治愈模型,以考虑到永远不会发生相关事件的治愈受试者的存在。在实践中,采用发病率参数模型和易感人群生存率半参数模型的混合治愈模型尤为常见。由于存在潜伏的治愈状态,最大似然估计是通过迭代 EM 算法进行的。在此,我们将重点放在治愈概率上,并提出了一个两步程序,以改进样本量不大时的最大似然估计方法。新方法基于预平滑,首先构建一个非参数估计器,然后将其投影到所需的参数类别上。我们研究了由此产生的估计器的理论特性,并通过对 logistic-Cox 模型的大量模拟研究表明,它优于现有方法。我们通过两个黑色素瘤数据集说明了该方法的实际应用。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
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