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Using Hospital Admission Predictions at Triage for Improving Patient Length of Stay in Emergency Departments 利用分诊时的住院预测改善急诊科病人的住院时间
IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.2405
Wanyi Chen, N. T. Argon, T. Bohrmann, B. Linthicum, Kenneth K. Lopiano, A. Mehrotra, D. Travers, S. Ziya
In emergency departments (EDs), one of the major reasons behind long waiting times and crowding overall is the time it takes to move admitted patients from the ED to an appropriate bed in the main hospital. In “Using Hospital Admission Predictions at Triage for Improving Patient Length of Stay in Emergency Departments,” Chen et al. develop a methodology that can be used to shorten these times by predicting the likelihood of admission for each patient at the time of triage and starting the process of identifying a suitable hospital bed and making preparations for the patient’s eventual transfer to the bed right away if the predicted probability of admission is deemed high enough. A simulation study suggests that the proposed methodology, particularly when it takes into account ED census levels, has the potential to shorten average waiting times in the ED without leading to too many false early bed requests.
在急诊科(EDs),等待时间长和总体拥挤的主要原因之一是将入院的病人从急诊科转移到主医院的合适床位所需的时间。在“使用分诊时的住院预测来改善急诊科患者的住院时间”中,Chen等人开发了一种方法,可以通过预测每个患者在分诊时住院的可能性,并开始确定合适的医院床位的过程,如果认为预测的住院概率足够高,则为患者最终转移到床上做准备,从而缩短这些时间。一项模拟研究表明,拟议的方法,特别是当它考虑到急诊科人口普查水平时,有可能缩短急诊科的平均等待时间,而不会导致太多虚假的早床请求。
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引用次数: 0
Sequential Fair Allocation: Achieving the Optimal Envy-Efficiency Trade-off Curve 序贯公平分配:实现最优嫉妒-效率权衡曲线
IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-11-23 DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.2397
Sean R. Sinclair, Gauri Jain, Siddhartha Banerjee, C. Yu
Optimizing Mobile Food Pantry Operations Under Demand Uncertainty Managing complex systems often involves making trade-offs between different objectives. A common example is seeking fairness guarantees in sequential resource allocation problems. For example, mobile food pantries are tasked with allocating resources under demand uncertainty with the goal of simultaneously minimizing inefficiency (leftover resources) and envy (deviations in allocations). In this work, we tackle a problem established from a partnership with the Food Bank of the Southern Tier in optimizing their mobile food-pantry operations. We provide an exact characterization of the achievable (envy, efficiency) pairs, showing that any algorithm achieving low envy must suffer from poor inefficiency and vice versa. We complement this exact characterization with a simple algorithm capable of achieving any desired point along the trade-off curve.
在需求不确定性下优化移动食品储藏室操作管理复杂系统通常涉及在不同目标之间进行权衡。一个常见的例子是在顺序资源分配问题中寻求公平保证。例如,移动食品储藏室的任务是在需求不确定的情况下分配资源,同时最小化效率低下(剩余资源)和嫉妒(分配偏差)。在这项工作中,我们解决了与南方食品银行合作建立的一个问题,以优化其移动食品储藏室的运作。我们提供了可实现的(嫉妒,效率)对的精确表征,表明任何实现低嫉妒的算法都必须遭受低效率,反之亦然。我们用一个简单的算法来补充这个精确的特征,这个算法能够在权衡曲线上达到任何期望的点。
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引用次数: 3
Data-Driven Optimization with Distributionally Robust Second Order Stochastic Dominance Constraints 具有分布鲁棒二阶随机优势约束的数据驱动优化
IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-11-22 DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.2387
Chun Peng, E. Delage
This paper presents the first comprehensive study of a data-driven formulation of the distributionally robust second order stochastic dominance constrained problem (DRSSDCP) that hinges on using a type-1 Wasserstein ambiguity set. It is, furthermore, for the first time shown to be axiomatically motivated in an environment with distribution ambiguity. We formulate the DRSSDCP as a multistage robust optimization problem and further propose a tractable conservative approximation that exploits finite adaptability and a scenario-based lower bounding problem. We then propose the first exact optimization algorithm for this DRSSDCP. We illustrate how the data-driven DRSSDCP can be applied in practice on resource-allocation problems with both synthetic and real data. Our empirical results show that, with a proper adjustment of the size of the Wasserstein ball, DRSSDCP can reach acceptable out-of-sample feasibility yet still generating strictly better performance than what is achieved by the reference strategy.
本文首次全面研究了数据驱动的分布鲁棒二阶随机优势约束问题(DRSSDCP)的公式,该公式依赖于使用1型Wasserstein模糊集。此外,它第一次被证明在分布模糊的环境中是公理化的。我们将DRSSDCP描述为一个多阶段鲁棒优化问题,并进一步提出了一个可处理的保守逼近,利用有限适应性和基于场景的下边界问题。然后,我们提出了该DRSSDCP的第一个精确优化算法。我们说明了数据驱动的DRSSDCP如何在实际中应用于综合数据和真实数据的资源分配问题。我们的实证结果表明,通过适当调整Wasserstein球的大小,DRSSDCP可以达到可接受的样本外可行性,但仍然产生严格优于参考策略的性能。
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引用次数: 4
Robustness of Proactive Intensive Care Unit Transfer Policies 主动重症监护病房转移政策的稳健性
IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-11-22 DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.2403
J. Grand-Clément, Carri W. Chan, Vineet Goyal, G. Escobar
Patients whose transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) is unplanned are prone to higher mortality rates. In “Robustness of Proactive Intensive Care Unit Transfer Policies,” the authors study the problem of finding robust patient transfer policies to the ICU, which account for uncertainty in statistical estimates because of data limitations when optimizing to improve overall patient care. Under general assumptions, it is shown that an optimal transfer policy has a threshold structure. A robust policy also has a threshold structure, and it is more aggressive in transferring patients than the optimal nominal policy, which does not consider parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity of various hospital metrics to small changes in the parameters is highlighted using a data set of close to 300,000 hospitalizations at 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals. This work provides useful insights into the impact of parameter uncertainty on deriving simple policies for proactive ICU transfer that have strong empirical performance and theoretical guarantees.
非计划转入重症监护病房(ICU)的患者死亡率较高。在“前瞻性重症监护病房转移政策的稳健性”一文中,作者研究了寻找稳健的ICU患者转移政策的问题,该政策在优化改善整体患者护理时由于数据限制而导致统计估计中的不确定性。在一般假设下,证明了最优转移策略具有阈值结构。鲁棒策略还具有阈值结构,并且在转移患者方面比不考虑参数不确定性的最优名义策略更具侵略性。使用Kaiser Permanente北加州21家医院近30万住院病例的数据集,强调了各种医院指标对参数微小变化的敏感性。这项工作提供了有用的见解,参数不确定性对推导具有强大的经验性能和理论保证的主动ICU转移的简单策略的影响。
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引用次数: 0
A Low-Rank Approximation for MDPs via Moment Coupling 基于矩耦合的mdp低秩近似
IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.2392
Amy Zhang, Itai Gurvich
Markov Decision Process Tayloring for Approximation Design Optimal control problems are difficult to solve for problems on large state spaces, calling for the development of approximate solution methods. In “A Low-rank Approximation for MDPs via Moment Coupling,” Zhang and Gurvich introduce a novel framework to approximate Markov decision processes (MDPs) that stands on two pillars: (i) state aggregation, as the algorithmic infrastructure, and (ii) central-limit-theorem-type approximations, as the mathematical underpinning. The theoretical guarantees are grounded in the approximation of the Bellman equation by a partial differential equation (PDE) where, in the spirit of the central limit theorem, the transition matrix of the controlled Markov chain is reduced to its local first and second moments. Instead of solving the PDE, the algorithm introduced in the paper constructs a “sister”' (controlled) Markov chain whose two local transition moments are approximately identical with those of the focal chain. Because of this moment matching, the original chain and its sister are coupled through the PDE, facilitating optimality guarantees. Embedded into standard soft aggregation, moment matching provides a disciplined mechanism to tune the aggregation and disaggregation probabilities.
对于大状态空间问题,最优控制问题难以求解,需要发展近似求解方法。在“通过矩耦合的mdp的低秩近似”中,Zhang和Gurvich引入了一个新的框架来近似马尔可夫决策过程(mdp),该框架建立在两个支柱上:(i)作为算法基础的状态聚合,以及(ii)作为数学基础的中心极限定理型近似。理论保证是建立在用偏微分方程(PDE)逼近Bellman方程的基础上的,其中,在中心极限定理的精神下,控制马尔可夫链的转移矩阵被简化为它的局部一阶和二阶矩。本文提出的算法不是求解PDE,而是构造一个“姊妹”(受控)马尔可夫链,其两个局部过渡矩与焦点链的过渡矩近似相同。由于这种矩匹配,原始链和姊妹链通过PDE进行耦合,从而促进了最优性保证。矩匹配嵌入到标准的软聚合中,提供了一种规范的机制来调整聚合和分解概率。
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引用次数: 0
Pricing Under Uncertainty in Multi-Interval Real-Time Markets 多区间实时市场不确定性下的定价
IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-11-08 DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.2314
J. Cho, A. Papavasiliou
A Novel Practical Stochastic Pricing Model for Multi-Interval Real-Time Markets Practical implementations of economic dispatch with associated pricing systems are crucial for operating electricity markets. Because of the high volatility caused by the increasing integration of renewable energy, consideration of the underlying stochastic problem is becoming more important than ever. It is a challenge to incorporate the uncertain nature of real-time operations into an already complex multi-interval dynamic problem with intertemporal constraints. Because solving a standard multi-stage stochastic programming problem is too burdensome in terms of calculation time for real-time markets, it has been standard practice in electricity markets to use a deterministic approximation with varying degrees of look-ahead. Cho and Papavasiliou, in their article “Pricing Under Uncertainty in Multi-Interval Real-Time Markets”, introduced a practical alternative method for pricing under uncertainty in multi-interval real-time markets. Using slightly different stochastic formulations, these authors propose an approach that preserves the attractive features from both the deterministic formulation (simpler calculation) and the standard stochastic formulation (better performance).
多区间实时市场的实用随机定价模型经济调度与相关定价系统的实际实施对电力市场的运行至关重要。由于不断增加的可再生能源集成度引起的高波动性,对潜在随机问题的考虑变得比以往任何时候都更加重要。将实时操作的不确定性纳入具有跨期约束的复杂多区间动态问题是一项挑战。由于解决标准的多阶段随机规划问题在实时市场的计算时间方面过于繁重,因此使用具有不同程度前瞻性的确定性近似已成为电力市场的标准实践。Cho和Papavasiliou在他们的文章“多区间实时市场不确定性下的定价”中,介绍了一种实用的多区间实时市场不确定性下的定价替代方法。使用稍微不同的随机公式,这些作者提出了一种方法,保留了确定性公式(更简单的计算)和标准随机公式(更好的性能)的吸引人的特征。
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引用次数: 3
Integer Factorization: Why Two-Item Joint Replenishment Is Hard 整数分解:两项联合补给困难的原因
IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.2390
Andreas S. Schulz, C. Telha
Joint replenishment problems constitute an important class of models in inventory management. They exhibit aspects of possible coordination among multiple products to save costs. Their computational complexity had been open even if there are just two products that need to be synced. In “Integer factorization: Why two-item joint replenishment is hard,” Schulz and Telha present a simple framework based on integer factorization to establish the computational hardness of two variants of the joint replenishment problem with two items. Whereas difficult to solve in practice and not believed to be solvable in polynomial time, integer factorization is not as difficult as NP-complete problems. The authors show that a similar technique can be used to show even the NP-completeness of one variant of the joint replenishment problem (again with just two items).
联合补货问题是库存管理中一类重要的模型。它们展示了多种产品之间可能的协调,以节省成本。即使只有两个产品需要同步,它们的计算复杂性也是开放的。在“整数分解:为什么两项联合补给困难”一文中,Schulz和Telha提出了一个基于整数分解的简单框架,以建立两项联合补给问题的两个变体的计算硬度。整数分解在实践中很难解决,而且不被认为是在多项式时间内可解的,但它并不像np完全问题那样困难。作者表明,类似的技术甚至可以用来证明联合补给问题的一个变体的np完备性(同样只有两个项目)。
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引用次数: 1
Black-Box Acceleration of Monotone Convex Program Solvers 单调凸程序解算器的黑盒加速
IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-10-19 DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.2352
Palma London, Shai Vardi, Reza Eghbali, A. Wierman
When and where was the study conducted: This work was done in 2018, 2019 and 2020 when Palma London was a PhD student at Caltech and Shai Vardi was a postdoc at Caltech. This work was also done in part while Palma London was visiting Purdue University, and while Reza Eghbali was a postdoctoral fellow the Simons Institute for the Theory of Computing. Adam Wierman is a professor at Caltech. Article Summary and Talking Points: Please describe the primary purpose/findings of your article in 3 sentences or less. This paper presents a framework for accelerating (speeding up) existing convex program solvers. Across engineering disciplines, a fundamental bottleneck is the availability of fast, efficient, accurate solvers. We present an acceleration method that speeds up linear programing solvers such as Gurobi and convex program solvers such as the Splitting Conic Solver by two orders of magnitude. Please include 3-5 short bullet points of “Need to Know” items regarding this research and your findings. - Optimizations problems arise in many engineering and science disciplines, and developing efficient optimization solvers is key to future innovation. - We speed up linear programing solver Gurobi by two orders of magnitude. - This work applies to optimization problems with monotone objective functions and packing constraints, which is a common problem formulation across many disciplines. Please identify 2 pull quotes from your article that best capture the novelty and impact of your research. “We propose a framework for accelerating exact and approximate convex programming solvers for packing linear programming problems and a family of convex programming problems with linear constraints. Analytically, we provide worst-case guarantees on the run time and the quality of the solution produced. Numerically, we demonstrate that our framework speeds up Gurobi and the Splitting Conic Solver by two orders of magnitude, while maintaining a near-optimal solution.” “Our focus in this paper is on a class of packing problems for which data is either very costly or hard to obtain. In these situations, the number of data points available is much smaller than the number of variables. In a machine-learning setting, this regime is increasingly prevalent because it is often advantageous to consider larger and larger feature spaces, while not necessarily obtaining proportionally more data.” Article Implications - Please describe in 5 sentences or less the innovative takeaway(s) of your research. This framework applies to optimization problems with monotone objective functions and packing constraints, which is a common problem formulation across many disciplines, including machine learning, inference, and resource allocation. Providing fast solvers for these problems is crucial. We exploit characteristics of the problem structure and leverage statistical properties of the problem constraints to allow us to speed up optimization solvers. We present worst-case guarantees on run
研究的时间和地点:这项工作是在2018年、2019年和2020年完成的,当时帕尔马·伦敦(Palma London)是加州理工学院的博士生,沙伊·瓦尔迪(Shai Vardi)是加州理工学院的博士后。这项工作的一部分是在帕尔马伦敦访问普渡大学时完成的,当时雷扎·埃格巴利是西蒙斯计算理论研究所的博士后。亚当·威尔曼是加州理工学院的教授。文章摘要和谈话要点:请用3句话或更少的时间描述你文章的主要目的/发现。本文提出了一个加速现有凸规划求解的框架。在工程学科中,一个基本的瓶颈是快速、高效、准确的求解器的可用性。我们提出了一种加速方法,将线性规划求解器(如Gurobi)和凸规划求解器(如分裂圆锥求解器)的速度提高了两个数量级。请包括3-5个关于这项研究和你的发现的“需要知道”项目的要点。优化问题出现在许多工程和科学学科中,开发高效的优化解决方案是未来创新的关键。我们将线性规划求解器Gurobi的速度提高了两个数量级。这项工作适用于具有单调目标函数和包装约束的优化问题,这是许多学科中常见的问题表述。请从你的文章中找出2个最能体现你研究的新颖性和影响的引语。“我们提出了一个框架,用于加速精确和近似凸规划求解包装线性规划问题和一类具有线性约束的凸规划问题。分析上,我们提供了运行时间和解决方案质量的最坏情况保证。在数值上,我们证明了我们的框架将Gurobi和分裂圆锥求解器的速度提高了两个数量级,同时保持了接近最优的解决方案。”“我们在这篇论文中关注的是一类数据要么非常昂贵要么很难获得的打包问题。在这些情况下,可用数据点的数量远远小于变量的数量。在机器学习环境中,这种机制越来越普遍,因为考虑越来越大的特征空间通常是有利的,而不一定要获得更多的数据。”文章含义-请用5句话或更短的时间描述你的研究的创新收获。该框架适用于具有单调目标函数和打包约束的优化问题,这是许多学科(包括机器学习、推理和资源分配)的常见问题表述。为这些问题提供快速解决方案至关重要。我们利用问题结构的特征,并利用问题约束的统计特性来加速优化求解。我们提出了运行时的最坏情况保证,并经验证明了两个数量级的加速。-请用5句话或更少的篇幅描述为什么你的发现会引起公众的兴趣。工程、科学、数学和机器学习中的许多问题都涉及解决优化问题。快速、高效的优化求解器是未来科学和工程创新的关键。这项工作提供了一个加速现有凸求解器的工具,因此也可以应用于未来的求解器。随着数据集规模的增长,拥有快速求解器变得更加重要。-谁会受你的研究影响最大(即按行业、职位、消费者类别)。我们的工作影响着工业界或学术界的机器学习研究人员和优化研究人员。
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引用次数: 0
Joint Inventory and Pricing for a One-Warehouse Multistore Problem: Spiraling Phenomena, Near Optimal Policies, and the Value of Dynamic Pricing 多仓库问题的联合库存和定价:螺旋现象、近最优策略和动态定价的价值
IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.2389
Murray Lei, Sheng Liu, Stefanus Jasin, A. Vakhutinsky
In “Joint Inventory and Pricing for a One-Warehouse Multistore Problem: Spiraling Phenomena, Near Optimal Policies, and the Value of Dynamic Pricing,” Lei, Liu, Jasin, and Vakhutinsky consider a joint inventory and pricing problem with one warehouse and multiple stores with lost sales. The retailer makes a one-time decision on the amount of inventory to be placed at the warehouse at the beginning of the selling season, followed by periodic joint replenishment and pricing decisions for each store throughout the season. The authors first analyze the performance of two popular and simple heuristic policies that directly implement the solution of a deterministic approximation of the original stochastic problem. They show that simple reoptimization of the deterministic approximation may worsen the performance by causing a “spiraling up” movement in expected lost sales quantity. The authors further propose two improved heuristic policies with provably near-optimal performance. In particular, the first policy achieves the best possible performance among all policies that rely on static pricing, and the second policy outperforms the first one because of its use of carefully designed dynamic pricing scheme.
在“一个仓库多商店的联合库存和定价问题:螺旋现象、近最优策略和动态定价的价值”中,Lei、Liu、Jasin和Vakhutinsky考虑了一个有一个仓库和多个商店的联合库存和定价问题。零售商在销售季节开始时一次性决定要在仓库中放置的库存数量,然后在整个季节中为每个商店定期进行联合补充和定价决策。作者首先分析了直接实现原始随机问题的确定性近似解的两种流行和简单的启发式策略的性能。他们表明,对确定性近似的简单重新优化可能会导致预期损失的销售数量“螺旋式上升”,从而使性能恶化。作者进一步提出了两种改进的启发式策略,可证明其性能接近最优。特别是,第一个策略在所有依赖于静态定价的策略中获得了最好的性能,第二个策略由于使用了精心设计的动态定价方案而优于第一个策略。
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引用次数: 3
Identifying Merger Opportunities: The Case of Air Traffic Control 识别合并机会:以空中交通管制为例
IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-09-08 DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.2348
N. Adler, O. Olesen, N. Volta
In “Identifying Merger Opportunities: The Case of Air Traffic Control,” N. Adler, O. Olesen, and N. Volta propose a model to identify an optimal horizontal merger configuration at the level of an industry or firm with multiple branches. Assuming that each firm operates within a catchment area or owns part of a network, we extend the model to consider feasible mergers that cover a contiguous area, should network effects be a consideration. An application to the European air traffic control system suggests that four contiguous air navigation service providers should replace the current 29 providers and the nine functional airspace blocks proposed in the Single European Skies initiative. The technological developments in air traffic management in which regulators on both sides of the Atlantic have invested heavily, namely SESAR and NextGen, are unlikely to be used without a concomitant reduction in operating costs through economies of scale. We find that the politically oriented solution may save around one third of current costs, but an optimal solution will save closer to 46%.
在“识别合并机会:空中交通管制的案例”中,N. Adler, O. Olesen和N. Volta提出了一个模型来识别具有多个分支的行业或公司层面的最佳横向合并配置。假设每个公司都在一个集水区经营或拥有一部分网络,我们扩展模型,考虑覆盖连续区域的可行合并,如果考虑到网络效应。欧洲空中交通管制系统的一项申请表明,四个连续的空中导航服务提供商应该取代目前的29个提供商和欧洲单一天空倡议中提出的9个功能空域块。大西洋两岸的监管机构在空中交通管理方面投入了大量资金的技术发展,即SESAR和NextGen,如果没有规模经济带来的运营成本降低,就不太可能得到应用。我们发现,以政治为导向的解决方案可能会节省约三分之一的当前成本,但最优解决方案将节省近46%。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Military Operations Research
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