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Kalt: generating adversarial explainable chinese legal texts Kalt:生成可解释的对抗性中文法律文本
IF 7.5 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06572-5
Yunting Zhang, Shang Li, Lin Ye, Hongli Zhang, Zhe Chen, Binxing Fang

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to adversarial examples (AEs), which are well-designed input samples with imperceptible perturbations. Existing methods generate AEs to evaluate the robustness of DNN-based natural language processing models. However, the AE attack performance significantly degrades in some verticals, such as law, due to overlooking essential domain knowledge. To generate explainable Chinese legal adversarial texts, we introduce legal knowledge and propose a novel black-box approach, knowledge-aware law tricker (KALT), in the framework of adversarial text generation based on word importance. Firstly, we invent a legal knowledge extraction method based on KeyBERT. The knowledge contains unique features from each category and shared features among different categories. Additionally, we design two perturbation strategies, Strengthen Similar Label and Weaken Original Label, to selectively perturb the two types of features, which can significantly reduce the classification accuracy of the target model. These two perturbation strategies can be regarded as components, which can be conveniently integrated into any perturbation method to enhance attack performance. Furthermore, we propose a strong hybrid perturbation method to introduce perturbation into the original texts. The perturbation method combines seven representative perturbation methods for Chinese. Finally, we design a formula to calculate interpretability scores, quantifying the interpretability of adversarial text generation methods. Experimental results demonstrate that KALT can effectively generate explainable Chinese legal adversarial texts that can be misclassified with high confidence and achieve excellent attack performance against the powerful Chinese BERT.

深度神经网络(DNN)很容易受到对抗示例(AE)的影响,对抗示例是精心设计的输入样本,具有难以察觉的扰动。现有方法通过生成 AE 来评估基于 DNN 的自然语言处理模型的鲁棒性。然而,在某些垂直领域(如法律),由于忽略了基本的领域知识,AE 攻击性能明显下降。为了生成可解释的中文法律对抗文本,我们引入了法律知识,并在基于词重要性的对抗文本生成框架下提出了一种新颖的黑盒方法--知识感知法律诱导器(KALT)。首先,我们发明了一种基于 KeyBERT 的法律知识提取方法。该知识包含每个类别的独特特征和不同类别之间的共享特征。此外,我们还设计了两种扰动策略,即强化相似标签和弱化原始标签,以选择性地扰动这两类特征,从而显著降低目标模型的分类准确率。这两种扰动策略可以被视为组件,可以方便地集成到任何扰动方法中以提高攻击性能。此外,我们还提出了一种强混合扰动方法,将扰动引入原始文本。该扰动方法结合了七种具有代表性的中文扰动方法。最后,我们设计了一个计算可解释性分数的公式,量化了对抗文本生成方法的可解释性。实验结果表明,KALT 可以有效生成可解释的中文法律对抗文本,这些文本可以被高置信度地错误分类,并在面对强大的中文 BERT 时取得优异的攻击性能。
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引用次数: 0
Improving interpretability via regularization of neural activation sensitivity 通过正则化神经激活敏感性提高可解释性
IF 7.5 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06549-4
Ofir Moshe, Gil Fidel, Ron Bitton, Asaf Shabtai

State-of-the-art deep neural networks (DNNs) are highly effective at tackling many real-world tasks. However, their widespread adoption in mission-critical contexts is limited due to two major weaknesses - their susceptibility to adversarial attacks and their opaqueness. The former raises concerns about DNNs’ security and generalization in real-world conditions, while the latter, opaqueness, directly impacts interpretability. The lack of interpretability diminishes user trust as it is challenging to have confidence in a model’s decision when its reasoning is not aligned with human perspectives. In this research, we (1) examine the effect of adversarial robustness on interpretability, and (2) present a novel approach for improving DNNs’ interpretability that is based on the regularization of neural activation sensitivity. We evaluate the interpretability of models trained using our method to that of standard models and models trained using state-of-the-art adversarial robustness techniques. Our results show that adversarially robust models are superior to standard models, and that models trained using our proposed method are even better than adversarially robust models in terms of interpretability.(Code provided in supplementary material.)

最先进的深度神经网络(DNN)在处理许多现实世界的任务时非常有效。然而,由于其易受对抗性攻击和不透明性这两大弱点,它们在关键任务环境中的广泛应用受到了限制。前者引发了人们对 DNN 在真实世界条件下的安全性和泛化能力的担忧,而后者,即不透明性,则直接影响了可解释性。缺乏可解释性会降低用户的信任度,因为当模型的推理与人类的观点不一致时,要对模型的决策抱有信心是很有挑战性的。在这项研究中,我们(1) 研究了对抗鲁棒性对可解释性的影响,(2) 提出了一种基于神经激活灵敏度正则化的提高 DNN 可解释性的新方法。我们评估了使用我们的方法训练的模型与标准模型和使用最先进的对抗鲁棒性技术训练的模型的可解释性。我们的结果表明,对抗鲁棒性模型优于标准模型,而使用我们提出的方法训练的模型在可解释性方面甚至优于对抗鲁棒性模型。
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引用次数: 0
REFUEL: rule extraction for imbalanced neural node classification REFUEL:不平衡神经节点分类的规则提取
IF 7.5 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06569-0
Marco Markwald, Elena Demidova

Imbalanced graph node classification is a highly relevant and challenging problem in many real-world applications. The inherent data scarcity, a central characteristic of this task, substantially limits the performance of neural classification models driven solely by data. Given the limited instances of relevant nodes and complex graph structures, current methods fail to capture the distinct characteristics of node attributes and graph patterns within the underrepresented classes. In this article, we propose REFUEL—a novel approach for highly imbalanced node classification problems in graphs. Whereas symbolic and neural methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses when applied to such problems, REFUEL combines the power of symbolic and neural learning in a novel neural rule-extraction architecture. REFUEL captures the class semantics in the automatically extracted rule vectors. Then, REFUEL augments the graph nodes with the extracted rules vectors and adopts a Graph Attention Network-based neural node embedding, enhancing the downstream neural node representation. Our evaluation confirms the effectiveness of the proposed REFUEL approach for three real-world datasets with different minority class sizes. REFUEL achieves at least a 4% point improvement in precision on the minority classes of 1.5–2% compared to the baselines.

在现实世界的许多应用中,不平衡图节点分类是一个高度相关且极具挑战性的问题。固有的数据稀缺性是这一任务的核心特征,它极大地限制了仅由数据驱动的神经分类模型的性能。由于相关节点和复杂图结构的实例有限,目前的方法无法捕捉到代表性不足的类别中节点属性和图模式的明显特征。在本文中,我们提出了 REFUEL--一种针对图中高度不平衡节点分类问题的新方法。符号方法和神经方法在应用于此类问题时优缺点互补,而 REFUEL 则将符号学习和神经学习的力量结合在一个新颖的神经规则提取架构中。REFUEL 在自动提取的规则向量中捕捉类的语义。然后,REFUEL 用提取的规则向量增强图节点,并采用基于图注意网络的神经节点嵌入,从而增强下游神经节点的表示。我们的评估证实了所提出的 REFUEL 方法在三个具有不同少数群体规模的真实数据集上的有效性。与基线相比,REFUEL 在 1.5%-2%的少数群体类别上至少提高了 4% 的精确度。
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引用次数: 0
High-order proximity and relation analysis for cross-network heterogeneous node classification 用于跨网络异构节点分类的高阶邻近性和关系分析
IF 7.5 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06566-3
Hanrui Wu, Yanxin Wu, Nuosi Li, Min Yang, Jia Zhang, Michael K. Ng, Jinyi Long

Cross-network node classification aims to leverage the labeled nodes from a source network to assist the learning in a target network. Existing approaches work mainly in homogeneous settings, i.e., the nodes of the source and target networks are characterized by the same features. However, in many practical applications, nodes from different networks usually have heterogeneous features. To handle this issue, in this paper, we study the cross-network node classification under heterogeneous settings, i.e., cross-network heterogeneous node classification. Specifically, we propose a new model called High-order Proximity and Relation Analysis, which studies the high-order proximity in each network and the high-order relation between nodes across the networks to obtain two kinds of features. Subsequently, these features are exploited to learn the final effective representations by introducing a feature matching mechanism and an adversarial domain adaptation. We perform extensive experiments on several real-world datasets and make comparisons with existing baseline methods. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

跨网络节点分类旨在利用源网络中的标记节点来帮助目标网络中的学习。现有方法主要适用于同质环境,即源网络和目标网络的节点具有相同的特征。然而,在许多实际应用中,来自不同网络的节点通常具有不同的特征。为了解决这个问题,本文研究了异构环境下的跨网络节点分类,即跨网络异构节点分类。具体来说,我们提出了一个名为 "高阶邻近度和关系分析 "的新模型,该模型通过研究每个网络中的高阶邻近度和跨网络节点之间的高阶关系来获得两种特征。随后,通过引入特征匹配机制和对抗性域适应,利用这些特征来学习最终的有效表征。我们在几个真实世界的数据集上进行了广泛的实验,并与现有的基线方法进行了比较。实验结果证明了所提模型的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Neighborhood relation-based incremental label propagation algorithm for partially labeled hybrid data 针对部分标记混合数据的基于邻接关系的增量标签传播算法
IF 7.5 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06560-9
Wenhao Shu, Dongtao Cao, Wenbin Qian, Shipeng Li

Label propagation can rapidly predict the labels of unlabeled objects as the correct answers from a small amount of given label information, which can enhance the performance of subsequent machine learning tasks. Most existing label propagation methods are proposed for static data. However, in many applications, real datasets including multiple feature value types and massive unlabeled objects vary dynamically over time, whereas applying these label propagation methods for dynamic partially labeled hybrid data will be a huge drain due to recalculating from scratch when the data changes every time. To improve efficiency, a novel incremental label propagation algorithm based on neighborhood relation (ILPN) is developed in this paper. Specifically, we first construct graph structures by utilizing neighborhood relations to eliminate unnecessary label information. Then, a new label propagation strategy is designed in consideration of the weights assigned to each class so that it does not rely on a probabilistic transition matrix to fix the structure for propagation. On this basis, a new label propagation algorithm called neighborhood relation-based label propagation (LPN) is developed. For the dynamic partially labeled hybrid data, we integrate incremental learning into LPN and develop an updating mechanism that allows incremental label propagation over previous label propagation results and graph structures, rather than recalculating from scratch. Finally, extensive experiments on UCI datasets validate that our proposed algorithm LPN can outperform other label propagation algorithms in speed on the premise of ensuring accuracy. Especially for simulated dynamic data, the incremental algorithm ILPN is more efficient than other non-incremental methods with the variation of the partially labeled hybrid data.

标签传播可以从少量给定的标签信息中快速预测未标记对象的标签为正确答案,从而提高后续机器学习任务的性能。现有的标签传播方法大多是针对静态数据提出的。然而,在许多应用中,包括多种特征值类型和大量未标记对象在内的真实数据集会随着时间的推移而动态变化,而将这些标签传播方法应用于动态的部分标记混合数据,每次数据变化时都要从头开始重新计算,这将造成巨大的消耗。为了提高效率,本文开发了一种基于邻域关系(ILPN)的新型增量标签传播算法。具体来说,我们首先利用邻域关系构建图结构,以消除不必要的标签信息。然后,考虑到分配给每个类的权重,设计了一种新的标签传播策略,使其不依赖于概率转换矩阵来固定传播结构。在此基础上,开发了一种新的标签传播算法,称为基于邻接关系的标签传播(LPN)。对于动态的部分标签混合数据,我们将增量学习集成到 LPN 中,并开发了一种更新机制,允许在以前的标签传播结果和图结构上进行增量标签传播,而不是从头开始重新计算。最后,在 UCI 数据集上进行的大量实验验证了我们提出的 LPN 算法在保证准确性的前提下,在速度上优于其他标签传播算法。特别是对于模拟动态数据,增量算法 ILPN 在部分标记混合数据变化的情况下比其他非增量方法更有效。
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引用次数: 0
X-Detect: explainable adversarial patch detection for object detectors in retail X-Detect:针对零售业物体检测器的可解释对抗补丁检测
IF 7.5 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06548-5
Omer Hofman, Amit Giloni, Yarin Hayun, Ikuya Morikawa, Toshiya Shimizu, Yuval Elovici, Asaf Shabtai

Object detection models, which are widely used in various domains (such as retail), have been shown to be vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Existing methods for detecting adversarial attacks on object detectors have had difficulty detecting new real-life attacks. We present X-Detect, a novel adversarial patch detector that can: (1) detect adversarial samples in real time, allowing the defender to take preventive action; (2) provide explanations for the alerts raised to support the defender’s decision-making process, and (3) handle unfamiliar threats in the form of new attacks. Given a new scene, X-Detect uses an ensemble of explainable-by-design detectors that utilize object extraction, scene manipulation, and feature transformation techniques to determine whether an alert needs to be raised. X-Detect was evaluated in both the physical and digital space using five different attack scenarios (including adaptive attacks) and the benchmark COCO dataset and our new Superstore dataset. The physical evaluation was performed using a smart shopping cart setup in real-world settings and included 17 adversarial patch attacks recorded in 1700 adversarial videos. The results showed that X-Detect outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in distinguishing between benign and adversarial scenes for all attack scenarios while maintaining a 0% FPR (no false alarms) and providing actionable explanations for the alerts raised. A demo is available.

广泛应用于各种领域(如零售业)的物体检测模型已被证明容易受到恶意攻击。现有的物体检测器对抗性攻击检测方法很难检测到现实生活中的新攻击。我们提出的 X-Detect 是一种新型对抗性补丁检测器,它可以(1) 实时检测对抗性样本,使防御者能够采取预防措施;(2) 为警报提供解释,支持防御者的决策过程;(3) 处理新攻击形式的陌生威胁。给定一个新场景后,X-Detect 会使用一组可解释设计探测器,利用对象提取、场景处理和特征转换技术来确定是否需要发出警报。我们使用五种不同的攻击场景(包括自适应攻击)、基准 COCO 数据集和新的 Superstore 数据集,在物理和数字空间对 X-Detect 进行了评估。物理评估是在真实世界中使用智能购物车设置进行的,包括在 1700 个对抗视频中记录的 17 种对抗性补丁攻击。结果表明,X-Detect 在区分所有攻击场景中的良性和对抗性场景方面优于最先进的方法,同时保持了 0% 的 FPR(无误报),并对发出的警报提供了可操作的解释。可提供演示。
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引用次数: 0
Supervised maximum variance unfolding 有监督的最大方差展开
IF 7.5 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06553-8
Deliang Yang, Hou-Duo Qi

Maximum Variance Unfolding (MVU) is among the first methods in nonlinear dimensionality reduction for data visualization and classification. It aims to preserve local data structure and in the meantime push the variance among data as big as possible. However, MVU in general remains a computationally challenging problem and this may explain why it is less popular than other leading methods such as Isomap and t-SNE. In this paper, based on a key observation that the structure-preserving term in MVU is actually the squared stress in Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS), we replace the term with the stress function from MDS, resulting in a model that is usable. The property of the usability guarantees the “crowding phenomenon” will not happen in the dimension reduced results. The new model also allows us to combine label information and hence we call it the supervised MVU (SMVU). We then develop a fast algorithm that is based on Euclidean distance matrix optimization. By making use of the majorization-mininmization technique, the algorithm at each iteration solves a number of one-dimensional optimization problems, each having a closed-form solution. This strategy significantly speeds up the computation. We demonstrate the advantage of SMVU on some standard data sets against a few leading algorithms including Isomap and t-SNE.

最大方差展开(MVU)是用于数据可视化和分类的首批非线性降维方法之一。它的目的是保留局部数据结构,同时尽可能扩大数据间的差异。然而,一般来说,MVU 仍然是一个具有计算挑战性的问题,这也是为什么它不如 Isomap 和 t-SNE 等其他主要方法受欢迎的原因。在本文中,基于 MVU 中的结构保持项实际上是多维尺度(MDS)中的应力平方这一关键观察结果,我们用 MDS 中的应力函数替换了结构保持项,从而得到了一个可用的模型。可用性的特性保证了 "拥挤现象 "不会出现在降维结果中。新模型还允许我们结合标签信息,因此我们称之为有监督 MVU(SMVU)。然后,我们开发了一种基于欧氏距离矩阵优化的快速算法。通过使用大化-最小化技术,该算法在每次迭代时都会解决一些一维优化问题,每个问题都有一个闭式解。这一策略大大加快了计算速度。我们在一些标准数据集上展示了 SMVU 与 Isomap 和 t-SNE 等几种领先算法的优势。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of data distribution on Q-learning with function approximation 数据分布对函数逼近的 Q-learning 的影响
IF 7.5 3区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06564-5
Pedro P. Santos, Diogo S. Carvalho, Alberto Sardinha, Francisco S. Melo

We study the interplay between the data distribution and Q-learning-based algorithms with function approximation. We provide a unified theoretical and empirical analysis as to how different properties of the data distribution influence the performance of Q-learning-based algorithms. We connect different lines of research, as well as validate and extend previous results, being primarily focused on offline settings. First, we analyze the impact of the data distribution by using optimization as a tool to better understand which data distributions yield low concentrability coefficients. We motivate high-entropy distributions from a game-theoretical point of view and propose an algorithm to find the optimal data distribution from the point of view of concentrability. Second, from an empirical perspective, we introduce a novel four-state MDP specifically tailored to highlight the impact of the data distribution in the performance of Q-learning-based algorithms with function approximation. Finally, we experimentally assess the impact of the data distribution properties on the performance of two offline Q-learning-based algorithms under different environments. Our results attest to the importance of different properties of the data distribution such as entropy, coverage, and data quality (closeness to optimal policy).

我们研究了数据分布与基于 Q-learning 的函数逼近算法之间的相互作用。我们对数据分布的不同属性如何影响基于 Q-learning 算法的性能进行了统一的理论和实证分析。我们连接了不同的研究方向,并验证和扩展了以前的成果,主要集中在离线设置上。首先,我们分析了数据分布的影响,将优化作为一种工具,以更好地了解哪些数据分布会产生低同质性系数。我们从博弈论的角度提出了高熵分布的动机,并提出了一种从可集中性的角度寻找最优数据分布的算法。其次,我们从实证的角度出发,引入了一种新的四状态 MDP,专门用于突出数据分布对基于 Q-learning 算法的函数近似性能的影响。最后,我们通过实验评估了数据分布特性在不同环境下对两种基于 Q-learning 的离线算法性能的影响。我们的结果证明了数据分布的不同属性(如熵、覆盖率和数据质量(与最优策略的接近程度))的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
POMDP inference and robust solution via deep reinforcement learning: an application to railway optimal maintenance 通过深度强化学习的 POMDP 推理和稳健解决方案:铁路优化维护的应用
IF 7.5 3区 计算机科学 Q1 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06559-2
Giacomo Arcieri, Cyprien Hoelzl, Oliver Schwery, Daniel Straub, Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou, Eleni Chatzi

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) can model complex sequential decision-making problems under stochastic and uncertain environments. A main reason hindering their broad adoption in real-world applications is the unavailability of a suitable POMDP model or a simulator thereof. Available solution algorithms, such as Reinforcement Learning (RL), typically benefit from the knowledge of the transition dynamics and the observation generating process, which are often unknown and non-trivial to infer. In this work, we propose a combined framework for inference and robust solution of POMDPs via deep RL. First, all transition and observation model parameters are jointly inferred via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of a hidden Markov model, which is conditioned on actions, in order to recover full posterior distributions from the available data. The POMDP with uncertain parameters is then solved via deep RL techniques with the parameter distributions incorporated into the solution via domain randomization, in order to develop solutions that are robust to model uncertainty. As a further contribution, we compare the use of Transformers and long short-term memory networks, which constitute model-free RL solutions and work directly on the observation space, with an approach termed the belief-input method, which works on the belief space by exploiting the learned POMDP model for belief inference. We apply these methods to the real-world problem of optimal maintenance planning for railway assets and compare the results with the current real-life policy. We show that the RL policy learned by the belief-input method is able to outperform the real-life policy by yielding significantly reduced life-cycle costs.

部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP)可以模拟随机和不确定环境下的复杂顺序决策问题。阻碍其在现实世界中广泛应用的一个主要原因是没有合适的 POMDP 模型或模拟器。现有的求解算法,如强化学习(RL),通常得益于过渡动态和观察结果生成过程的知识,而这些知识往往是未知的,且难以推断。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个通过深度 RL 实现 POMDPs 推理和稳健求解的组合框架。首先,通过对隐藏马尔可夫模型进行马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗采样,联合推断出所有过渡和观测模型参数,该模型以行动为条件,以便从可用数据中恢复完整的后验分布。然后,通过深度 RL 技术求解参数不确定的 POMDP,并通过域随机化将参数分布纳入求解中,从而开发出对模型不确定性具有鲁棒性的解决方案。作为进一步的贡献,我们将构成无模型 RL 解决方案并直接作用于观测空间的 Transformers 和长短期记忆网络的使用与称为 "信念输入法 "的方法进行了比较,后者通过利用学习到的 POMDP 模型进行信念推理来作用于信念空间。我们将这些方法应用于现实世界中的铁路资产最佳维护规划问题,并将结果与当前的现实政策进行比较。我们发现,通过信念输入法学习到的 RL 政策能够显著降低生命周期成本,从而优于现实生活中的政策。
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引用次数: 0
Exploiting residual errors in nonlinear online prediction 利用非线性在线预测中的残余误差
IF 7.5 3区 计算机科学 Q1 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06554-7
Emirhan Ilhan, Ahmet B. Koc, Suleyman S. Kozat

We introduce a novel online (or sequential) nonlinear prediction approach that incorporates the residuals, i.e., prediction errors in the past observations, as additional features for the current data. Including the past error terms in an online prediction algorithm naturally improves prediction performance significantly since this information is essential for an algorithm to adjust itself based on its past errors. These terms are well exploited in many linear statistical models such as ARMA, SES, and Holts-Winters models. However, the past error terms are rarely or in a certain sense not optimally exploited in nonlinear prediction models since training them requires complex nonlinear state-space modeling. To this end, for the first time in the literature, we introduce a nonlinear prediction framework that utilizes not only the current features but also the past error terms as additional features, thereby exploiting the residual state information in the error terms, i.e., the model’s performance on the past samples. Since the new feature vectors contain error terms that change with every update, our algorithm jointly optimizes the model parameters and the feature vectors simultaneously. We achieve this by introducing new update equations that handle the effects resulting from the changes in the feature vectors in an online manner. We use soft decision trees and neural networks as the nonlinear prediction algorithms since these are the most widely used methods in highly publicized competitions. However, as we show, our methods are generic and any algorithm supporting gradient calculations can be straightforwardly used. We show through our experiments on the well-known real-life competition datasets that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art. We also provide the implementation of our approach including the source code to facilitate reproducibility (https://github.com/ahmetberkerkoc/SDT-ARMA).

我们引入了一种新颖的在线(或连续)非线性预测方法,该方法将残差(即过去观测中的预测误差)作为当前数据的附加特征。在在线预测算法中加入过去的误差项,自然能显著提高预测性能,因为这些信息对于算法根据过去的误差进行自我调整至关重要。在许多线性统计模型(如 ARMA、SES 和 Holts-Winters 模型)中,这些项都得到了很好的利用。然而,在非线性预测模型中,过去的误差项很少被利用,或者从某种意义上说,没有得到最佳利用,因为训练这些模型需要复杂的非线性状态空间建模。为此,我们在文献中首次引入了一个非线性预测框架,该框架不仅利用当前特征,还利用过去的误差项作为附加特征,从而利用误差项中的残余状态信息,即模型在过去样本上的表现。由于新的特征向量包含的误差项会随着每次更新而改变,因此我们的算法会同时对模型参数和特征向量进行联合优化。为此,我们引入了新的更新方程,以在线方式处理特征向量变化带来的影响。我们使用软决策树和神经网络作为非线性预测算法,因为这些方法在备受关注的竞赛中使用最为广泛。不过,正如我们所展示的,我们的方法是通用的,任何支持梯度计算的算法都可以直接使用。我们在著名的真实竞赛数据集上进行的实验表明,我们的方法明显优于最先进的方法。我们还提供了我们方法的实现,包括源代码,以促进可重复性(https://github.com/ahmetberkerkoc/SDT-ARMA)。
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Machine Learning
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