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Unsupervised Bayesian classification for models with scalar and functional covariates. 针对标量和功能协变量模型的无监督贝叶斯分类。
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-02-07 eCollection Date: 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlae006
Nancy L Garcia, Mariana Rodrigues-Motta, Helio S Migon, Eva Petkova, Thaddeus Tarpey, R Todd Ogden, Julio O Giordano, Martin M Perez

We consider unsupervised classification by means of a latent multinomial variable which categorizes a scalar response into one of the L components of a mixture model which incorporates scalar and functional covariates. This process can be thought as a hierarchical model with the first level modelling a scalar response according to a mixture of parametric distributions and the second level modelling the mixture probabilities by means of a generalized linear model with functional and scalar covariates. The traditional approach of treating functional covariates as vectors not only suffers from the curse of dimensionality, since functional covariates can be measured at very small intervals leading to a highly parametrized model, but also does not take into account the nature of the data. We use basis expansions to reduce the dimensionality and a Bayesian approach for estimating the parameters while providing predictions of the latent classification vector. The method is motivated by two data examples that are not easily handled by existing methods. The first example concerns identifying placebo responders on a clinical trial (normal mixture model) and the other predicting illness for milking cows (zero-inflated mixture of the Poisson model).

我们考虑通过一个潜在的多项式变量进行无监督分类,该变量将标量响应归类到包含标量和函数协变量的混合物模型的 L 个分量之一。这一过程可视为一个分层模型,第一层根据参数分布的混合物对标量响应进行建模,第二层通过包含功能和标量协变量的广义线性模型对混合物概率进行建模。将函数协变量视为向量的传统方法不仅存在维度诅咒,因为函数协变量的测量间隔可能非常小,导致模型高度参数化,而且没有考虑到数据的性质。我们使用基扩展来降低维度,并使用贝叶斯方法来估计参数,同时提供潜在分类向量的预测。该方法由两个现有方法不易处理的数据实例激发。第一个例子涉及识别临床试验中的安慰剂应答者(正态混合模型),另一个例子涉及预测挤奶奶牛的疾病(泊松模型的零膨胀混合)。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian semi-parametric inference for clustered recurrent events with zero inflation and a terminal event. 针对零膨胀和终结事件的群集重复事件的贝叶斯半参数推断。
IF 1 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-02-01 eCollection Date: 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlae003
Xinyuan Tian, Maria Ciarleglio, Jiachen Cai, Erich J Greene, Denise Esserman, Fan Li, Yize Zhao

Recurrent events are common in clinical studies and are often subject to terminal events. In pragmatic trials, participants are often nested in clinics and can be susceptible or structurally unsusceptible to the recurrent events. We develop a Bayesian shared random effects model to accommodate this complex data structure. To achieve robustness, we consider the Dirichlet processes to model the residual of the accelerated failure time model for the survival process as well as the cluster-specific shared frailty distribution, along with an efficient sampling algorithm for posterior inference. Our method is applied to a recent cluster randomized trial on fall injury prevention.

反复事件在临床研究中很常见,而且往往会出现终末事件。在实用性试验中,参与者往往嵌套在临床中,可能易受反复事件的影响,也可能在结构上不受其影响。我们开发了一种贝叶斯共享随机效应模型,以适应这种复杂的数据结构。为了实现稳健性,我们考虑用 Dirichlet 过程来模拟生存过程加速失败时间模型的残差以及特定群组的共享虚弱分布,并采用高效的抽样算法进行后验推断。我们的方法被应用于最近一项关于预防跌倒伤害的分组随机试验中。
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引用次数: 0
A Bayesian latent class model for integrating multi-source longitudinal data: application to the CHILD cohort study 整合多源纵向数据的贝叶斯潜类模型:在儿童队列研究中的应用
4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad100
Zihang Lu, Padmaja Subbarao, Wendy Lou
Abstract Multi-source longitudinal data have become increasingly common. This type of data refers to longitudinal datasets collected from multiple sources describing the same set of individuals. Representing distinct features of the individuals, each data source may consist of multiple longitudinal markers of distinct types and measurement frequencies. Motivated by the CHILD cohort study, we develop a model for joint clustering multi-source longitudinal data. The proposed model allows each data source to follow source-specific clustering, and they are aggregated to yield a global clustering. The proposed model is demonstrated through real-data analysis and simulation study.
摘要多源纵向数据越来越普遍。这种类型的数据是指从多个来源收集的描述同一组个体的纵向数据集。代表个体的不同特征,每个数据源可以由不同类型和测量频率的多个纵向标记组成。受CHILD队列研究的启发,我们开发了一个多源纵向数据联合聚类模型。所提出的模型允许每个数据源遵循特定于数据源的聚类,并将它们聚合以产生全局聚类。通过实际数据分析和仿真研究验证了该模型的有效性。
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引用次数: 1
CRP-Tree: a phylogenetic association test for binary traits CRP-Tree:一种二元性状的系统发育关联试验
4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad098
Julie Zhang, Gabriel A Preising, Molly Schumer, Julia A Palacios
Abstract An important problem in evolutionary genomics is to investigate whether a certain trait measured on each sample is associated with the sample phylogenetic tree. The phylogenetic tree represents the shared evolutionary history of the samples and it is usually estimated from molecular sequence data at a locus or from other type of genetic data. We propose a model for trait evolution inspired by the Chinese Restaurant Process that includes a parameter that controls the degree of preferential attachment, that is, the tendency of nodes in the tree to subtend from nodes of the same type. This model with no preferential attachment is equivalent to a structured coalescent model with simultaneous migration and coalescence events and serves as a null model. We derive a test for phylogenetic binary trait association with linear computational complexity and empirically demonstrate that it is more powerful than some other methods. We apply our test to study the phylogenetic association of some traits in swordtail fish, breast cancer, yellow fever virus, and influenza A H1N1 virus. R-package implementation of our methods is available at https://github.com/jyzhang27/CRPTree.
摘要在进化基因组学中,一个重要的问题是研究在每个样本上测量到的某一性状是否与样本系统发育树相关联。系统发育树代表了样本的共同进化史,它通常是根据一个位点的分子序列数据或其他类型的遗传数据来估计的。受中国餐馆过程的启发,我们提出了一个性状进化模型,该模型包含一个控制优先依恋程度的参数,即树中节点从同一类型节点的从属趋势。该模型不存在优先依附关系,相当于迁移和聚结事件同时发生的结构化聚结模型,为零模型。我们推导了一种基于线性计算复杂度的系统发育二元性状关联检验方法,并实证证明了它比其他一些方法更有效。我们应用我们的测试来研究剑尾鱼某些性状与乳腺癌、黄热病病毒和甲型H1N1流感病毒的系统发育关系。我们的方法的r包实现可以在https://github.com/jyzhang27/CRPTree上获得。
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引用次数: 1
Bayesian kernel machine regression for count data: modelling the association between social vulnerability and COVID-19 deaths in South Carolina 计数数据的贝叶斯核机回归:模拟南卡罗来纳州社会脆弱性与COVID-19死亡之间的关系
4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad094
Fedelis Mutiso, Hong Li, John L Pearce, Sara E Benjamin-Neelon, Noel T Mueller, Brian Neelon
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic created an unprecedented global health crisis. Recent studies suggest that socially vulnerable communities were disproportionately impacted, although findings are mixed. To quantify social vulnerability in the US, many studies rely on the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), a county-level measure comprising 15 census variables. Typically, the SVI is modelled in an additive manner, which may obscure non-linear or interactive associations, further contributing to inconsistent findings. As a more robust alternative, we propose a negative binomial Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) model to investigate dynamic associations between social vulnerability and COVID-19 death rates, thus extending BKMR to the count data setting. The model produces a ‘vulnerability effect’ that quantifies the impact of vulnerability on COVID-19 death rates in each county. The method can also identify the relative importance of various SVI variables and make future predictions as county vulnerability profiles evolve. To capture spatio-temporal heterogeneity, the model incorporates spatial effects, county-level covariates, and smooth temporal functions. For Bayesian computation, we propose a tractable data-augmented Gibbs sampler. We conduct a simulation study to highlight the approach and apply the method to a study of COVID-19 deaths in the US state of South Carolina during the 2021 calendar year.
新冠肺炎大流行造成了前所未有的全球卫生危机。最近的研究表明,社会弱势群体受到了不成比例的影响,尽管结果好坏参半。为了量化美国的社会脆弱性,许多研究都依赖于社会脆弱性指数(SVI),这是一个由15个人口普查变量组成的县级衡量指标。通常,SVI以相加的方式建模,这可能会模糊非线性或交互关联,进一步导致不一致的结果。作为一个更稳健的替代方案,我们提出了一个负二项贝叶斯核机回归(BKMR)模型来研究社会脆弱性与COVID-19死亡率之间的动态关联,从而将BKMR扩展到计数数据设置。该模型产生了“脆弱性效应”,量化了脆弱性对每个县COVID-19死亡率的影响。该方法还可以识别各种SVI变量的相对重要性,并根据县脆弱性特征的演变进行未来预测。为了捕捉时空异质性,该模型结合了空间效应、县级协变量和平滑时间函数。对于贝叶斯计算,我们提出了一种易于处理的数据增强吉布斯采样器。我们进行了一项模拟研究,以突出该方法,并将该方法应用于2021年美国南卡罗来纳州COVID-19死亡的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Reconstructing the Antarctic ice-sheet shape at the Last Glacial Maximum using ice-core data 利用冰芯资料重建末次盛冰期南极冰盖形状
4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad078
Fiona E Turner, Caitlin E Buck, Julie M Jones, Louise C Sime, Irene Malmierca Vallet, Richard D Wilkinson
Abstract The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the Earth’s largest store of frozen water; understanding how it changed in the past allows us to improve projections of how it, and sea levels, may change. Here, we use previous AIS reconstructions, water isotope ratios from ice cores, and simulator predictions of the relationship between the ice-sheet shape and isotope ratios to create a model of the AIS at the Last Glacial Maximum. We develop a prior distribution that captures expert opinion about the AIS, generate a designed ensemble of potential shapes, run these through the climate model HadCM3, and train a Gaussian process emulator of the link between ice-sheet shape and isotope ratios. To make the analysis computationally tractable, we develop a preferential principal component method that allows us to reduce the dimension of the problem in a way that accounts for the differing importance we place in reconstructions, allowing us to create a basis that reflects prior uncertainty. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution, finding shapes for which HadCM3 predicts isotope ratios closely matching observations from ice cores. The posterior distribution allows us to quantify the uncertainty in the reconstructed shape, a feature missing in other analyses.
南极冰盖(AIS)是地球上最大的冷冻水储存库;了解它在过去是如何变化的,可以让我们更好地预测它和海平面可能会如何变化。在这里,我们使用以前的AIS重建,来自冰芯的水同位素比率,以及冰盖形状和同位素比率之间关系的模拟器预测来创建末次盛冰期AIS模型。我们开发了一个先验分布,该分布捕获了有关AIS的专家意见,生成了一个设计的潜在形状集合,通过气候模型HadCM3运行这些集合,并训练了一个高斯过程模拟器来模拟冰盖形状和同位素比率之间的联系。为了使分析在计算上易于处理,我们开发了一种优先主成分方法,该方法允许我们以一种方式减少问题的维度,这种方式说明了我们在重建中放置的不同重要性,允许我们创建反映先前不确定性的基础。我们使用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗从后验分布中取样,发现HadCM3预测的同位素比率与冰芯观测值密切匹配的形状。后验分布使我们能够量化重建形状的不确定性,这是其他分析中缺少的一个特征。
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引用次数: 0
High-resolution global precipitation downscaling with latent Gaussian models and non-stationary stochastic partial differential equation structure 基于隐高斯模型和非平稳随机偏微分方程结构的高分辨率全球降水降尺度
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-09-06 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad084
Jiachen Zhang, Matthew Bonas, Diogo Bolster, Geir-Arne Fuglstad, S. Castruccio
Obtaining high-resolution maps of precipitation data can provide key insights to stakeholders to assess a sustainable access to water resources at urban scale. Mapping a non-stationary, sparse process such as precipitation at very high spatial resolution requires the interpolation of global datasets at the location where ground stations are available with statistical models able to capture complex non-Gaussian global space–time dependence structures. In this work, we propose a new approach based on capturing the spatially varying anisotropy of a latent Gaussian process via a locally deformed stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with a buffer allowing for a different spatial structure across land and sea. The finite volume approximation of the SPDE, coupled with integrated nested Laplace approximation ensures feasible Bayesian inference for tens of millions of observations. The simulation studies showcase the improved predictability of the proposed approach against stationary and no-buffer alternatives. The proposed approach is then used to yield high-resolution simulations of daily precipitation across the United States.
获得高分辨率的降水数据地图可以为利益相关者提供关键的见解,以评估城市尺度上水资源的可持续利用。在非常高的空间分辨率下绘制非平稳的稀疏过程,如降水,需要在地面站可用的统计模型能够捕获复杂的非高斯全局时空依赖结构的位置插值全球数据集。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种新的方法,该方法基于通过局部变形的随机偏微分方程(SPDE)捕获潜在高斯过程的空间变化各向异性,该方法具有缓冲,允许陆地和海洋的不同空间结构。SPDE的有限体积近似与集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似相结合,确保了对数千万个观测值的可行贝叶斯推断。仿真研究表明,相对于固定和无缓冲方案,所提出的方法具有更好的可预测性。然后,该方法被用于生成美国各地日降水的高分辨率模拟。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing present and future risk of water damage using. Response to Comments 评估当前和未来的水损害风险。评论回复
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad067
Claudio Heinrich‐Mertsching, J. C. Wahl, A. Ordoñez, M. Stien, John Elvsborg, O. Haug, T. Thorarinsdottir
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引用次数: 0
Ankur Dutta’s contribution to the Discussion of “The First Discussion Meeting on Statistical aspects of climate change” Ankur Dutta对“气候变化统计方面的第一次讨论会议”讨论的贡献
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad052
Ankur Dutta
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引用次数: 0
Estimating a brain network predictive of stress and genotype with supervised autoencoders. 用监督自编码器估计预测压力和基因型的脑网络。
IF 1.6 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad035
Austin Talbot, David Dunson, Kafui Dzirasa, David Carlson

Targeted brain stimulation has the potential to treat mental illnesses. We develop an approach to help design protocols by identifying relevant multi-region electrical dynamics. Our approach models these dynamics as a superposition of latent networks, where the latent variables predict a relevant outcome. We use supervised autoencoders (SAEs) to improve predictive performance in this context, describe the conditions where SAEs improve predictions, and provide modelling constraints to ensure biological relevance. We experimentally validate our approach by finding a network associated with stress that aligns with a previous stimulation protocol and characterizing a genotype associated with bipolar disorder.

有针对性的大脑刺激有可能治疗精神疾病。我们开发了一种方法,通过识别相关的多区域电动力学来帮助设计协议。我们的方法将这些动态建模为潜在网络的叠加,其中潜在变量预测相关结果。在这种情况下,我们使用监督式自动编码器(sae)来提高预测性能,描述sae改进预测的条件,并提供建模约束以确保生物学相关性。我们通过实验验证了我们的方法,找到了与压力相关的网络,与先前的刺激方案一致,并表征了与双相情感障碍相关的基因型。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics
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