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Study on the disintegration characteristics of expansive stiff clay: with consideration of expansion-disintegration interaction 膨胀性硬质粘土的崩解特性研究:考虑膨胀-崩解相互作用
IF 3.7 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10064-024-03943-z
Qiong Wang, Yun Zhou, Wei Su, Jiang Xie, Yihe Xu, Yichun Liu, Weimin Ye

The disintegration of expansive stiff clay will cause irreversible damage and deterioration of mechanical properties of the soil. The latest studies show that the disintegration is related to the swelling capacity of soil. In this study, a series of hydration disintegration tests and swelling pressure tests were performed on compacted Nanning expansive stiff clay samples with different initial water contents and dry densities. The observed disintegration process of all samples could be divided into initial, rapid and residual disintegration stages, among which the rapid stage dominated the whole process. By introducing relevant indicators to quantify the disintegration process, it was found that at a given dry density, the average disintegration rate of the sample decreased with increasing initial water content; while at a given water content, it decreased with increasing initial dry density. Such phenomena coincided well with the obtained evolution of swelling pressure at different initial water contents and dry densities. Based on these findings, the expansion-disintegration interaction mechanism of expansive stiff clay was finally analyzed from the perspectives of microstructure and hydration cracking. The initial conditions of the compacted samples determine the volume of inter-aggregates pores and thus the water transfer rate in soils, which affects the formation of hydration cracks. The cracking is induced by tension failure due to the expansion gradient formed during the hydration of sample, destructing the soil integrity to facilitate the disintegration. The disintegration, in turn provides preferential water infiltration channels to accelerate further soil expansion and hydration cracking. Such interactions proceeded until the completion of sample disintegration.

膨胀性硬质粘土的崩解会对土壤造成不可逆转的破坏,并使土壤的机械性能恶化。最新研究表明,崩解与土的膨胀能力有关。本研究对不同初始含水量和干密度的压实南宁膨胀性硬质粘土样品进行了一系列水化崩解试验和膨胀压力试验。观察到的所有样品的崩解过程可分为初始崩解阶段、快速崩解阶段和残余崩解阶段,其中快速崩解阶段在整个过程中占主导地位。通过引入相关指标来量化崩解过程,发现在给定的干密度下,样品的平均崩解率随着初始含水量的增加而降低;而在给定的含水量下,样品的平均崩解率随着初始干密度的增加而降低。这种现象与不同初始含水量和干密度下膨胀压力的演变过程十分吻合。基于这些发现,最终从微观结构和水化开裂的角度分析了膨胀性硬质粘土的膨胀-解体相互作用机理。压实样品的初始条件决定了团聚体间孔隙的体积,进而决定了土壤的传水速率,影响水化裂缝的形成。裂缝是由样品水化过程中形成的膨胀梯度导致的拉力破坏引起的,它破坏了土壤的完整性,从而促进了崩解。崩解反过来又提供了有利的渗水通道,加速了土壤的进一步膨胀和水化开裂。这种相互作用一直持续到样品解体完成。
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引用次数: 0
Ground liquefaction caused by 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes of Türkiye and some assessments on its extent and impacts on built environment 2023 年 2 月 6 日土耳其卡赫拉曼马拉什地震造成的地面液化及其范围和对建筑环境影响的一些评估
IF 3.7 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10064-024-03946-w
R. Ulusay, Ö. Aydan, H. Kumsar

Two disastrous earthquakes, named Pazarcık (Mw7.8) and Ekinözü (Mw7.6), occurred on February 6, 2023 in the southeast part of Türkiye and were collectively named “Kahramanmaraş earthquakes”. These seismic events were caused by a left lateral strike-slip faults, and resulted in significant loss of life, severe damage to infrastructures and buildings, and geotechnical damages such as mainly large-scale slope failures, rockfalls, and ground liquefaction. The main goal of this study is to assess the extend and impact of widespread ground liquefaction, particularly on built environment. Additionally, the ranges of amount of settlement and tilting of buildings due to ground liquefaction were briefly discussed and liquefaction caused by Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were compared with those others occurred in Türkiye. The site observations indicated that except a village, a short section of a highway, a few bridges and two settlements, widespread liquefaction was mainly observed in agricultural non-urbanized fields. The maximum amount of settlement at some liquefaction locations reached up to 2 m and high-raise buildings tilted 7–8° from the vertical reaching up about 20°. Observations indicated that single-storey and two-storeys buildings with a basement to a certain depth, a lower center of gravity and raft foundation should be considered suitable on soils susceptible to liquefaction in earthquake-prone regions without taking any counter-measures against ground liquefaction. Mass movements along the shoreline of the Gölbaşı Lake were unlikely to be caused by lateral spreading resulting from ground liquefaction and they were rather due to planar sliding along a weak layer dipping towards the lake with progressive failure.

2023 年 2 月 6 日,土耳其东南部发生了两次灾难性地震,分别为 Pazarcık(Mw7.8)和 Ekinözü(Mw7.6),并被统称为 "Kahramanmaraş 地震"。这些地震事件是由左侧走向滑动断层引起的,造成了重大人员伤亡、基础设施和建筑物的严重破坏,以及岩土工程破坏,如主要是大规模的斜坡崩塌、落石和地面液化。本研究的主要目标是评估大范围地面液化的范围和影响,特别是对建筑环境的影响。此外,还简要讨论了地面液化造成的沉降量和建筑物倾斜的范围,并将卡赫拉曼马拉什地震造成的液化与土耳其发生的其他地震进行了比较。现场观测结果表明,除了一个村庄、一小段高速公路、几座桥梁和两个居民点外,大范围的液化主要发生在非城市化的农田中。一些液化地点的最大沉降量达 2 米,高层建筑从垂直方向倾斜 7-8 度,最高达 20 度左右。观测结果表明,在地震多发区易受液化影响的土壤上,单层和两层建筑物,如地下室达到一定深度,重心较低,且采用筏式基础,则应视为合适的建筑物,无需采取任何地面液化对策。哥尔巴谢湖沿岸的地块移动不太可能是由地面液化引起的横向扩展造成的,而是由于沿着向湖面倾斜的软弱层的平面滑动并逐渐破坏所致。
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引用次数: 0
Study on dynamic shear characteristics of calcareous sand reinforced with rubber and geogrid 用橡胶和土工格栅加固的钙质砂的动态剪切特性研究
IF 3.7 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10064-024-03951-z
Junli Gao, Lai Pan, Xiaolin Bian, Jiajun Wang, Yuqi Li

To address the reduced bearing capacity of rubber-reinforced calcareous sand while also alleviating pollution from discarded tires, a combined reinforcement method using rubber and geogrid is studied. This approach utilizes the geogrid’s capability to enhance material bearing capacity through the netting effect, complementing the rubber’s reinforcement of calcareous sand. By cyclic direct shear tests, this study investigates the dynamic shear characteristics and particle fragmentation mechanism of calcareous sand reinforced with rubber and geogrid. The analysis focuses on the shear characteristics of reinforced calcareous sand and the corresponding patterns of particle crushing. The findings indicate that: (I) Geogrid reinforcement effectively restrains volume deformation in the soil induced by rubber particles. (II) Reinforcement with rubber and geogrid compensates to a certain extent for the reduction in shear stiffness attributed to the rubber mixture. (III) The relative crushing rate of unreinforced calcareous sand post-test is 25.9%, which increases to 29.8% with geogrid reinforcement, decreases to 19.1% with rubber reinforcement, and reaches 22.6% with combined rubber and geogrid reinforcement. The geogrid’s particle crushing rate disadvantage is offset by the advantage provided by rubber reinforcement. The collaboration of rubber and geogrid reinforcement effectively addresses the limitations of rubber sand as a foundation material, rendering it more suitable for practical applications.

为了解决橡胶加固钙质砂承载能力降低的问题,同时减轻废弃轮胎造成的污染,我们研究了一种使用橡胶和土工格栅的组合加固方法。这种方法利用土工格栅通过网状效应提高材料承载能力的能力,与橡胶加固钙质砂的作用相辅相成。本研究通过循环直接剪切试验,研究了用橡胶和土工格栅加固的钙质砂的动态剪切特性和颗粒破碎机制。分析的重点是加固钙质砂的剪切特性以及相应的颗粒破碎模式。研究结果表明(I) 土工格栅加固可有效抑制橡胶颗粒引起的土壤体积变形。(二)橡胶和土工格栅加固在一定程度上弥补了橡胶混合物导致的剪切刚度降低。(III) 未加固的钙质砂在试验后的相对破碎率为 25.9%,土工格栅加固后上升至 29.8%,橡胶加固后下降至 19.1%,橡胶和土工格栅联合加固后达到 22.6%。土工格栅的颗粒破碎率劣势被橡胶加固的优势所抵消。橡胶和土工格栅加固的组合有效解决了橡胶砂作为地基材料的局限性,使其更适合实际应用。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating analytical and machine learning approaches to simulate and predict dam foundation stress and river valley contraction in a large-scale reservoir 整合分析和机器学习方法,模拟和预测大型水库的坝基应力和河谷收缩
IF 3.7 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10064-024-03941-1
Ziwen Zhou, Zhifang Zhou, Sai K. Vanapalli

The safety of several large-scale reservoirs all over the world has been of concern due to dam foundation stress (DFS) that gradually changes following impoundment inducing the river valley contraction (RVC). Presently, there are limited approaches for the prediction of DFS and RVC based on complex hydro-geomechanics principles. However, these approaches require extensive information that is cumbersome and time-consuming to gather and hence expensive. In this paper, five machine learning models (MLMs) for DFS and RVC prediction were established by merging innovative analytical, BP neural networks and optimized algorithm approaches. Three key influencing factors; namely: seepage, temperature, and creep are used as input information in these models. The developed MLMs were validated using well-documented case study results over nine years for Xiluodu reservoir in China. The trend-fitting effect and statistical indicators of the proposed MLMs demonstrated strong predictive ability (R2 > 0.9). Among the MLMs, Generic algorithm-BP and Sparrow search algorithm-BP methods were found to be comprehensive. The predicted RVC and DFS using MLMs are consistent with the coupled multi-field analytical method from the literature and provide reliable predictions using limited information. This study serves as a valuable reference for predicting DFS and RVC of large reservoirs for ensuring long-term safety.

由于坝基应力(DFS)在蓄水后会逐渐变化,从而诱发河谷收缩(RVC),世界各地一些大型水库的安全问题一直备受关注。目前,根据复杂的水文地质力学原理预测坝基应力和河谷收缩的方法非常有限。然而,这些方法需要大量信息,收集这些信息既麻烦又耗时,因此成本高昂。本文通过融合创新的分析、BP 神经网络和优化算法方法,建立了五个用于 DFS 和 RVC 预测的机器学习模型(MLM)。三个关键影响因素,即渗流、温度和蠕变被用作这些模型的输入信息。利用中国溪洛渡水库九年的案例研究结果,对所开发的多模型进行了验证。提出的 MLMs 的趋势拟合效果和统计指标均显示出很强的预测能力(R2 > 0.9)。其中,通用算法-BP 法和麻雀搜索算法-BP 法具有较好的综合性。使用 MLM 预测的 RVC 和 DFS 与文献中的多场耦合分析方法一致,利用有限的信息提供了可靠的预测。这项研究对预测大型水库的 DFS 和 RVC 以确保长期安全具有重要的参考价值。
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引用次数: 0
Study on water softening characteristics and multi-stage sliding zone reactivation mechanism of old clay landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area subjected to groundwater 三峡库区老黏土滑坡受地下水影响的水软化特征及多级滑动带再活化机理研究
IF 3.7 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1007/s10064-024-03956-8
Lijuan Sun, Yihan Zhao, Chenjia Li, Yiping Sun, Shiwei Gao

The reactivation events of old landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area occur frequently, making it imperative to study the water softening characteristics and reactivation mechanism. An old clay landslide was selected as the focus of the research, and a segmented water injection permeable sliding surface was designed to simulate the formation and evolution of the old sliding zone during the process of groundwater rise. Volumetric water content sensors, pore water pressure gauges, high-speed camera devices, and Geopiv-RG digital image processing technology were used to obtain data on multiple physical fields. The analysis results indicated that the decrease in shear strength of the sliding zone soil and the sudden increase in pore water pressure on the sliding surface were important factors in the reactivation of old landslides. The surface deformation exhibited prominent zoning characteristics, primarily categorized into zones of strong deformation, weak deformation, and traction deformation. The failure mechanism involved shear sliding at the front edge, tensile cracking and failure at the trailing edge, and shear creep in the middle section. The development of multi-stage secondary sliding zones in old landslides can be categorized into three types: parallel to the original old sliding zone, partially overlapping with the original sliding zone to form a layered landslide, and completely overlapping with the original sliding zone, indicating overall reactivated deformation.

三峡库区老滑坡再活化事件频发,水软化特征及再活化机理研究迫在眉睫。研究选取了一处老黏土滑坡作为研究对象,设计了分段注水透水滑动面,模拟老滑动带在地下水上升过程中的形成和演化过程。利用体积含水量传感器、孔隙水压力计、高速摄像装置和 Geopiv-RG 数字图像处理技术获取了多个物理场的数据。分析结果表明,滑动带土壤抗剪强度的降低和滑动面孔隙水压力的突然增加是旧滑坡重新启动的重要因素。地表变形表现出明显的分区特征,主要分为强变形区、弱变形区和牵引变形区。破坏机制包括前缘的剪切滑动、后缘的拉伸开裂和破坏以及中段的剪切蠕变。老滑坡中多级次级滑动带的发展可分为三种类型:与原老滑动带平行、与原滑动带部分重叠形成层状滑坡,以及与原滑动带完全重叠,表明整体重新激活变形。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated investigation of the failure mechanism of loess landslide induced by raining: from field to laboratory 雨水诱发黄土滑坡破坏机制的综合研究:从野外到实验室
IF 3.7 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10064-024-03937-x
Xianlun Leng, Youkou Dong, Lan Cui, Liangmei Zhou, Si Luo

Occurrence of loess landslide has been more frequent due to the drastic global climate change, rapid expansion of human disturbances and continuous intensification of engineering activities. The activation and evolution mechanisms of the loess landslides under the rainfall are yet to be studied. In this paper, with reference to the Yangpoyao slope with seepage fissures under rainfall, an adjustable-angle landslide model test system is developed, integrating the rainfall simulation system, the measurement system and the data acquisition system, and the deformation development of the model, the rainfall infiltration, the change of water content and the destructive process of the model are monitored by the monitoring technology of multi-means and multi-methods throughout the course of the disaster. A distributed fibre-optic sensor system with the characteristics of continuity and high precision is used to monitor the temperature and strain within the slope model. The deformation evolution mechanism of fissured loess slopes under rainfall was elucidated through the observation of experimental phenomena and the analysis of the internal strain values of the soil, as measured by fibre optic sensors. The experimental results show that the collapse process of loess slopes can be categorised into three types, i.e. sinkhole collapse, block collapse and gully collapse, and that the deformation and damage patterns of the loess landslide model are mainly caused by shallow soil movement induced by erosion. Through the comparative analysis of the model test and the photographs of the field investigation, it is further demonstrated that the damage pattern shown in the physical model test is basically consistent with the slope condition of the real Yangpoyao slope, which provides a new theoretical reference for natural disaster prediction and management of loess slopes and landslides.

由于全球气候变化剧烈、人为干扰迅速扩大以及工程活动不断加剧,黄土滑坡的发生日益频繁。黄土滑坡在降雨作用下的激活和演化机理尚待研究。本文以降雨作用下的阳坡窑坡体渗流裂隙为研究对象,开发了集降雨模拟系统、测量系统和数据采集系统于一体的可调角度滑坡模型试验系统,采用多手段、多方法的监测技术对模型的变形发展、降雨渗透、含水量变化和破坏过程进行了全程监测。采用具有连续性和高精度特点的分布式光纤传感系统对边坡模型内的温度和应变进行监测。通过观察实验现象和分析光纤传感器测量到的土壤内部应变值,阐明了降雨条件下裂隙黄土斜坡的变形演变机制。实验结果表明,黄土边坡的崩塌过程可分为三种类型,即天坑崩塌、块体崩塌和冲沟崩塌,黄土滑坡模型的变形和破坏模式主要是由侵蚀引起的浅层土壤运动造成的。通过模型试验与现场调查照片的对比分析,进一步证明了物理模型试验所显示的破坏形态与真实阳坡窑边坡状况基本一致,为黄土边坡及滑坡的自然灾害预测与治理提供了新的理论参考。
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引用次数: 0
Mechanical experiment and microstructural characteristics of water glass solidified loess 水玻璃固化黄土的力学实验和微观结构特征
IF 3.7 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10064-024-03932-2
Shaoqiang Guo, Huimei Zhang, Yuzhang Bi, Jiafan Zhang

In order to explore the influence of water glass on the strength and microscopic mechanism of loess, water glass with different content and Baume degree was used to solidify loess. Unconfined compressive strenght test, particle analysis tests, mercury intrusion tests and SEM tests were carried out to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the strength characteristics and microstructure changes of loess and water glass solidified loess under different conditions. The results showed that the unconfined compressive strength of water glass solidified loess increased with the increase of the water glass content, the Baume degree and the curing period. After 28 days of curing, the unconfined compressive strength reached the maximum value when the Baume degree of water glass was 52 Be’ and the content was about 20%. The incorporation of water glass gradually increased the cements attached to the loess skeleton particles and their surfaces. The particle diameter increased and the macropores were filled with cements. The macropores in the soil gradually decreased and the integrity was enhanced. The reason for the increase in the strength of water glass solidified loess was that the cementing material generated by the hydration reaction of water glass enhanced the degree of cementation between soil particles and increased the mutual friction between particles, which made the soil structure more stable and improved the soil strength. The research results provide a reference for the selection of relevant parameters in the design of improved loess engineering.

为了探讨水玻璃对黄土强度的影响及其微观机理,采用不同含量和波美度的水玻璃对黄土进行固结。通过无侧限抗压强度试验、颗粒分析试验、汞侵入试验和扫描电镜试验,定性和定量分析了不同条件下黄土和水玻璃凝固黄土的强度特征和微观结构变化。结果表明,水玻璃固化黄土的无压抗压强度随水玻璃含量、波美度和固化时间的增加而增加。固化 28 天后,当水玻璃的波美度为 52 Be'、含量约为 20% 时,无压抗压强度达到最大值。水玻璃的加入逐渐增加了附着在黄土骨架颗粒及其表面的水泥。颗粒直径增大,大孔隙被水泥填充。土壤中的大孔隙逐渐减少,整体性增强。水玻璃固结黄土强度提高的原因是水玻璃水化反应产生的胶结物增强了土颗粒间的胶结程度,增大了颗粒间的相互摩擦力,使土体结构更加稳定,提高了土体强度。研究结果为改良黄土工程设计中相关参数的选择提供了参考。
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引用次数: 0
Quantification and division of unfrozen water content of frozen soils during freezing and the influence of freeze-thaw cycles 冻结过程中冻土未冻结含水量的定量和划分以及冻融循环的影响
IF 3.7 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10064-024-03954-w
Ran An, Haodong Gao, Chang Chen, Xianwei Zhang

The unfrozen water content is crucial to soil's physical and mechanical properties. Soils on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are frequently subjected to freeze-thaw (F-T) cycles. The quantitative relationship between F-T effects and the unfrozen water content of soils requires further investigation. This study employs a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) scanner with a temperature-control module to measure the unfrozen water content of silty clay during multiple F-T cycles. The soil freezing characteristic curves (SFCC) of silty clay are derived from the T2 (transverse relaxation time) distribution curves based on NMR measurements. Two distinct T2 cutoff values are used to classify three types of water in soils: bound water, capillary water, and bulk water. The impact of F-T cycles on the evolution of unfrozen water content as temperatures decrease has been analyzed. The testing results indicate that the SFCC of silty clay can be segmented into three stages: super-cooling, fast-declining, and stable. As the number of F-T cycles increases, capillary water content decreases while bulk water content increases during the super-cooling stage. The damage coefficient, derived from pore volume measurements, increases sharply during the first four F-T cycles before stabilizing gradually. Additionally, there is a negative linear correlation between the damage coefficient and the initial capillary water content, and a positive linear correlation with the initial bulk water content. This study offers valuable insights for the quantitative analysis of unfrozen water content in seasonally frozen regions and serves as an essential guide for geotechnical construction projects in cold areas.

未冻结的含水量对土壤的物理和机械性能至关重要。青藏高原的土壤经常受到冻融循环的影响。冻融效应与土壤解冻水含量之间的定量关系需要进一步研究。本研究采用带有温度控制模块的核磁共振(NMR)扫描仪,测量淤泥质粘土在多次冻融循环过程中的解冻水含量。根据核磁共振测量的 T2(横向弛豫时间)分布曲线,得出了淤泥质粘土的土壤冻结特征曲线 (SFCC)。利用两个不同的 T2 临界值将土壤中的水分为三种类型:结合水、毛细管水和体积水。分析了 F-T 循环对温度降低时未冻结含水量演变的影响。测试结果表明,淤泥质粘土的 SFCC 可分为三个阶段:超冷、快速下降和稳定。随着 F-T 循环次数的增加,毛细管含水量降低,而过冷阶段的体积含水量增加。根据孔隙体积测量得出的破坏系数在前四个 F-T 循环期间急剧增加,然后逐渐趋于稳定。此外,损伤系数与初始毛细管含水量呈负线性相关,与初始体积含水量呈正线性相关。这项研究为季节性冰冻地区未冻结含水量的定量分析提供了宝贵的见解,对寒冷地区的岩土工程建设具有重要的指导意义。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction model for the compressive strength of rock based on stacking ensemble learning and shapley additive explanations 基于堆积集合学习和夏普利加法解释的岩石抗压强度预测模型
IF 3.7 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10064-024-03896-3
Luyuan Wu, Jianhui Li, Jianwei Zhang, Zifa Wang, Jingbo Tong, Fei Ding, Meng Li, Yi Feng, Hui Li

Accurately predicting the compressive strength of rock (RCS) is crucial for the construction and maintenance of rock engineering. However, RCS prediction based on single machine learning (ML) algorithms often face issues such as parameter sensitivity and inadequate generalization. To address these challenges, a new (RCS) prediction model based on a stacking ensemble learning method was proposed. This method combines multiple ML algorithms to achieve more accurate and stable prediction results. Firstly, 442 sets of rock mechanics experimental data were collected to form the prediction dataset, and data preprocessing techniques, including missing value imputation and normalization, were applied for data cleaning and standardization. Secondly, nine classic ML algorithms were used to establish RCS prediction models, and the optimal configurations were determined using k-fold cross-validation and Bayesian optimization. The selected base learners were LightGBM, Random Forest, and XGBoost, and the meta-learners were Ridge, Lasso, and Linear Regression. Finally, the models were verified using the testset, and the comparison showed that the proposed stacking models were better than all single models. Notably, the Stacking-LR model exhibited the best predictive accuracy(R2=0.946, MAE=5.59, MAPE=9.94%). Furthermore, the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was introduced to analyze the impact and dependencies of input features on the prediction results. It was found that both Young’s modulus and confining pressure are the most critical parameters influencing RCS and exert a positive impact on the prediction results. This finding is consistent with domain expert knowledge, enhances the model’s interpretability, and provides robust support for the predicted results.

准确预测岩石抗压强度(RCS)对于岩石工程的施工和维护至关重要。然而,基于单一机器学习(ML)算法的 RCS 预测往往面临参数敏感性和泛化不足等问题。为了应对这些挑战,我们提出了一种基于堆叠集合学习方法的新型(RCS)预测模型。该方法结合了多种 ML 算法,以获得更准确、更稳定的预测结果。首先,收集了 442 组岩石力学实验数据组成预测数据集,并采用缺失值估算和归一化等数据预处理技术进行数据清理和标准化。其次,采用九种经典的 ML 算法建立 RCS 预测模型,并通过 k 倍交叉验证和贝叶斯优化确定最佳配置。选定的基础学习器为 LightGBM、Random Forest 和 XGBoost,元学习器为 Ridge、Lasso 和线性回归。最后,使用测试集对这些模型进行了验证,比较结果表明,所提出的堆叠模型优于所有单一模型。值得注意的是,Stacking-LR 模型的预测准确率最高(R2=0.946,MAE=5.59,MAPE=9.94%)。此外,还引入了 Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)方法来分析输入特征对预测结果的影响和依赖性。结果发现,杨氏模量和约束压力是影响 RCS 的最关键参数,对预测结果有积极影响。这一发现与领域专家的知识一致,增强了模型的可解释性,并为预测结果提供了强有力的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical analysis of long-term deformations and determination of warning thresholds for near-dam reservoir bank slopes 近坝水库岸坡长期变形的统计分析和预警阈值的确定
IF 3.7 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10064-024-03928-y
Mingxi Chen, Aojie Feng, Wei Wei, Qinghui Jiang

With the construction and operation of a large number of hydropower engineering projects in China, the deformation and failure behaviors of reservoir bank slopes pose increasing threats to the stability of hydraulic structures, as well as upstream and downstream residents and infrastructures. This study aims to offer a novel perspective for exploring the long-term deformation behavior of near-dam reservoir bank slopes through statistical analysis, and to put forward a quantitative method to determine velocity thresholds for early warning procedures. In this paper, the monitoring data of velocities recorded from four reservoir bank slopes are counted at first, and then generalized Pareto distribution and power law distribution are applied to fit the empirical cumulative distribution of statistical data. Further, two risk measures, value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk, are used to analyze the characteristics of the distribution tails and evaluate the risk levels corresponding to different velocities. Combined with risk measures, a quantitative method for defining threshold levels based on velocities is proposed for early warning procedures. Statistical results show that generalized Pareto distribution and power-law distribution have the potential as unified models to describe the deformation behavior of the reservoir bank slopes. Case analyses verify the effectiveness of the method for defining the early-warning thresholds. The proposed methods could easily be transferred to slope movements with similar deformation behaviors in other hazardous areas.

随着中国大量水电工程的建设和运行,水库岸坡的变形和破坏行为对水工建筑物以及上下游居民和基础设施的稳定性构成了越来越大的威胁。本研究旨在提供一个新的视角,通过统计分析探讨近坝水库岸坡的长期变形行为,并提出一种定量方法来确定预警程序的速度阈值。本文首先统计了四座水库岸坡记录的速度监测数据,然后应用广义帕累托分布和幂律分布拟合统计数据的经验累积分布。此外,还采用风险值和条件风险值两种风险度量来分析分布尾部的特征,并评估不同速度对应的风险等级。结合风险度量,为预警程序提出了一种基于速度定义阈值水平的定量方法。统计结果表明,广义帕累托分布和幂律分布有可能成为描述水库岸坡变形行为的统一模型。案例分析验证了该方法在确定预警阈值方面的有效性。所提出的方法可以很容易地应用于其他危险地区具有类似变形行为的边坡运动。
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引用次数: 0
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Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment
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