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An elementary proof of representation of submodular function as an supremum of measures on $σ$-algebra with totally ordered generating class 子模函数表示为具有完全有序生成类的 $σ$-algebra 上的量的上集的基本证明
Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: arxiv-2406.18174
Tetsuya Hattori
We give an alternative proof of a fact that a finite continuousnon-decreasing submodular set function on a measurable space can be expressedas a supremum of measures dominated by the function, if there exists a class ofsets which is totally ordered with respect to inclusion and generates thesigma-algebra of the space. The proof is elementary in the sense that themeasure attaining the supremum in the claim is constructed by a standardextension theorem of measures. As a consequence, a uniquness of the supremumattaining measure also follows. A Polish space is an examples of the measurablespace which has a class of totally ordered sets that generates the Borelsigma-algebra.
我们给出了一个事实的另类证明,即如果存在一类关于包容完全有序并生成空间的西格玛代数的集合,那么可测空间上的有限连续非递减亚模态集合函数可以表示为由该函数支配的度量的上集。这个证明是基本的,因为通过量的标准扩展定理就可以构造出达到这个上量的主题量。因此,也可以得出上等度量的唯一性。波兰空间是可测空间的一个范例,它有一类完全有序的集合,生成了波雷尔西格玛代数(Borelsigma-algebra)。
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引用次数: 0
Catastrophic-risk-aware reinforcement learning with extreme-value-theory-based policy gradients 基于极值理论策略梯度的灾难风险意识强化学习
Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: arxiv-2406.15612
Parisa Davar, Frédéric Godin, Jose Garrido
This paper tackles the problem of mitigating catastrophic risk (which is riskwith very low frequency but very high severity) in the context of a sequentialdecision making process. This problem is particularly challenging due to thescarcity of observations in the far tail of the distribution of cumulativecosts (negative rewards). A policy gradient algorithm is developed, that wecall POTPG. It is based on approximations of the tail risk derived from extremevalue theory. Numerical experiments highlight the out-performance of our methodover common benchmarks, relying on the empirical distribution. An applicationto financial risk management, more precisely to the dynamic hedging of afinancial option, is presented.
本文探讨了在连续决策过程中降低灾难性风险(即频率很低但严重程度很高的风险)的问题。由于累积成本(负回报)分布远端观测值的稀缺性,这个问题尤其具有挑战性。我们开发了一种策略梯度算法,我们称之为 POTPG。该算法基于极值理论得出的尾部风险近似值。数值实验表明,我们的方法优于依赖经验分布的普通基准。本文介绍了该方法在金融风险管理中的应用,更确切地说,是在金融期权动态对冲中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Lessons From Model Risk Management in Financial Institutions for Academic Research 金融机构风险管理模型为学术研究提供的启示
Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: arxiv-2406.14776
Mahmood Alaghmandan, Olga Streltchenko
In this paper, we discuss aspects of model risk management in financialinstitutions which could be adopted by academic institutions to improve theprocess of conducting academic research, identify and mitigate existinglimitations, decrease the possibility of erroneous results, and preventfraudulent activities.
在本文中,我们讨论了金融机构模型风险管理的各个方面,学术机构可以采用这些方面来改进学术研究的过程,识别并减少现有的限制,降低错误结果的可能性,并防止欺诈活动。
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引用次数: 0
Robust convex risk measures 稳健的凸风险度量
Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: arxiv-2406.12999
Marcelo Righi
We study the general properties of robust convex risk measures as worst-casevalues under uncertainty on random variables. We establish general concreteresults regarding convex conjugates and sub-differentials. We refine someresults for closed forms of worstcase law invariant convex risk measures undertwo concrete cases of uncertainty sets for random variables: based on the firsttwo moments and Wasserstein balls.
我们研究了作为随机变量不确定性下最坏情况值的稳健凸风险度量的一般性质。我们建立了有关凸共轭和次微分的一般具体结果。在随机变量不确定性集的两种具体情况下,我们完善了最坏情况法律不变凸风险度量的封闭形式的一些结果:基于前两个矩和瓦瑟斯坦球。
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引用次数: 0
Application of Natural Language Processing in Financial Risk Detection 自然语言处理在金融风险检测中的应用
Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: arxiv-2406.09765
Liyang Wang, Yu Cheng, Ao Xiang, Jingyu Zhang, Haowei Yang
This paper explores the application of Natural Language Processing (NLP) infinancial risk detection. By constructing an NLP-based financial risk detectionmodel, this study aims to identify and predict potential risks in financialdocuments and communications. First, the fundamental concepts of NLP and itstheoretical foundation, including text mining methods, NLP model designprinciples, and machine learning algorithms, are introduced. Second, theprocess of text data preprocessing and feature extraction is described.Finally, the effectiveness and predictive performance of the model arevalidated through empirical research. The results show that the NLP-basedfinancial risk detection model performs excellently in risk identification andprediction, providing effective risk management tools for financialinstitutions. This study offers valuable references for the field of financialrisk management, utilizing advanced NLP techniques to improve the accuracy andefficiency of financial risk detection.
本文探讨了自然语言处理(NLP)在金融风险检测中的应用。通过构建基于 NLP 的金融风险检测模型,本研究旨在识别和预测金融文档和通信中的潜在风险。首先,介绍了 NLP 的基本概念及其理论基础,包括文本挖掘方法、NLP 模型设计原则和机器学习算法。最后,通过实证研究验证了模型的有效性和预测性能。结果表明,基于 NLP 的金融风险检测模型在风险识别和预测方面表现出色,为金融机构提供了有效的风险管理工具。这项研究为金融风险管理领域提供了宝贵的参考,利用先进的 NLP 技术提高了金融风险检测的准确性和效率。
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引用次数: 0
A Multi-step Approach for Minimizing Risk in Decentralized Exchanges 分散式交易所风险最小化的多步骤方法
Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: arxiv-2406.07200
Daniele Maria Di Nosse, Federico Gatta
Decentralized Exchanges are becoming even more predominant in today'sfinance. Driven by the need to study this phenomenon from an academicperspective, the SIAG/FME Code Quest 2023 was announced. Specifically,participating teams were asked to implement, in Python, the basic functions ofan Automated Market Maker and a liquidity provision strategy in an AutomatedMarket Maker to minimize the Conditional Value at Risk, a critical measure ofinvestment risk. As the competition's winning team, we highlight our approachin this work. In particular, as the dependence of the final return on theinitial wealth distribution is highly non-linear, we cannot use standard ad-hocapproaches. Additionally, classical minimization techniques would require asignificant computational load due to the cost of the target function. Forthese reasons, we propose a three-step approach. In the first step, the targetfunction is approximated by a Kernel Ridge Regression. Then, the approximatingfunction is minimized. In the final step, the previously discovered minimum isutilized as the starting point for directly optimizing the desired targetfunction. By using this procedure, we can both reduce the computationalcomplexity and increase the accuracy of the solution. Finally, the overallcomputational load is further reduced thanks to an algorithmic trick concerningthe returns simulation and the usage of Cython.
去中心化交易所在当今金融领域正变得越来越重要。为了从学术角度研究这一现象,SIAG/FME 宣布举办 2023 年代码竞赛(SIAG/FME Code Quest 2023)。具体来说,参赛团队需要用 Python 实现自动做市商的基本功能和自动做市商的流动性供应策略,以最大限度地降低风险条件值(衡量投资风险的重要指标)。作为比赛的获胜团队,我们在本作品中重点介绍了我们的方法。特别是,由于最终回报与初始财富分布的关系是高度非线性的,因此我们不能使用标准的临时方法。此外,由于目标函数的成本,经典的最小化技术需要大量的计算负荷。为此,我们提出了一种分三步的方法。第一步,用核岭回归逼近目标函数。然后,对近似函数进行最小化。最后一步,利用之前发现的最小值作为起点,直接优化所需的目标函数。通过使用这一程序,我们既能降低计算复杂度,又能提高求解的精确度。最后,得益于返回模拟的算法技巧和 Cython 的使用,整体计算负荷进一步降低。
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引用次数: 0
Adaptive combinations of tail-risk forecasts 尾部风险预测的自适应组合
Pub Date : 2024-06-10 DOI: arxiv-2406.06235
Alessandra Amendola, Vincenzo Candila, Antonio Naimoli, Giuseppe Storti
In order to meet the increasingly stringent global standards of bankingmanagement and regulation, several methods have been proposed in the literaturefor forecasting tail risk measures such as the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and ExpectedShortfall (ES). However, regardless of the approach used, there are severalsources of uncertainty, including model specifications, data-related issues andthe estimation procedure, which can significantly affect the accuracy of VaRand ES measures. Aiming to mitigate the influence of these sources ofuncertainty and improve the predictive performance of individual models, wepropose novel forecast combination strategies based on the Model Confidence Set(MCS). In particular, consistent joint VaR and ES loss functions within the MCSframework are used to adaptively combine forecasts generated by a wide range ofparametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric models. Our results reveal thatthe proposed combined predictors provide a suitable alternative for forecastingrisk measures, passing the usual backtests, entering the set of superior modelsof the MCS, and usually exhibiting lower standard deviations than other modelspecifications.
为了满足日益严格的全球银行管理和监管标准,文献中提出了几种预测尾部风险的方法,如风险价值(VaR)和预期跌幅(ES)。然而,无论采用哪种方法,都存在多种不确定性来源,包括模型规格、数据相关问题和估算程序,这些都会严重影响 VaR 和 ES 度量的准确性。为了减轻这些不确定性来源的影响并提高单个模型的预测性能,我们提出了基于模型置信集(MCS)的新型预测组合策略。特别是,MCS 框架内的一致联合 VaR 和 ES 损失函数被用来自适应地组合由各种参数、半参数和非参数模型生成的预测。我们的研究结果表明,所提出的组合预测器为预测风险度量提供了一个合适的替代方案,通过了通常的回溯测试,进入了 MCS 的优越模型集,并且通常比其他模型规格表现出更低的标准偏差。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing Anomaly Detection: Non-Semantic Financial Data Encoding with LLMs 推进异常检测:使用 LLM 进行非语义金融数据编码
Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: arxiv-2406.03614
Alexander BakumenkoClemson University, USA, Kateřina Hlaváčková-SchindlerUniversity of Vienna, Austria, Claudia PlantUniversity of Vienna, Austria, Nina C. HubigClemson University, USA
Detecting anomalies in general ledger data is of utmost importance to ensuretrustworthiness of financial records. Financial audits increasingly rely onmachine learning (ML) algorithms to identify irregular or potentiallyfraudulent journal entries, each characterized by a varying number oftransactions. In machine learning, heterogeneity in feature dimensions addssignificant complexity to data analysis. In this paper, we introduce a novelapproach to anomaly detection in financial data using Large Language Models(LLMs) embeddings. To encode non-semantic categorical data from real-worldfinancial records, we tested 3 pre-trained general purpose sentence-transformermodels. For the downstream classification task, we implemented and evaluated 5optimized ML models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, GradientBoosting Machines, Support Vector Machines, and Neural Networks. Ourexperiments demonstrate that LLMs contribute valuable information to anomalydetection as our models outperform the baselines, in selected settings even bya large margin. The findings further underscore the effectiveness of LLMs inenhancing anomaly detection in financial journal entries, particularly bytackling feature sparsity. We discuss a promising perspective on using LLMembeddings for non-semantic data in the financial context and beyond.
检测总账数据中的异常情况对于确保财务记录的可信度至关重要。财务审计越来越依赖于机器学习(ML)算法来识别不规则或潜在的欺诈性日记账分录,每种分录的特点是交易次数各不相同。在机器学习中,特征维度的异质性会大大增加数据分析的复杂性。在本文中,我们介绍了一种使用大型语言模型(LLMs)嵌入进行金融数据异常检测的新方法。为了对真实世界财务记录中的非语义分类数据进行编码,我们测试了 3 个预先训练好的通用句子转换模型。对于下游分类任务,我们实施并评估了 5 个优化的 ML 模型,包括逻辑回归、随机森林、梯度提升机、支持向量机和神经网络。实验证明,LLM 为异常检测提供了有价值的信息,因为我们的模型在某些设置下甚至比基线模型有更大的优势。研究结果进一步强调了 LLM 在增强金融日记账异常检测方面的有效性,尤其是在解决特征稀疏性方面。我们讨论了将 LLM 嵌入用于金融及其他领域的非语义数据的前景。
{"title":"Advancing Anomaly Detection: Non-Semantic Financial Data Encoding with LLMs","authors":"Alexander BakumenkoClemson University, USA, Kateřina Hlaváčková-SchindlerUniversity of Vienna, Austria, Claudia PlantUniversity of Vienna, Austria, Nina C. HubigClemson University, USA","doi":"arxiv-2406.03614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2406.03614","url":null,"abstract":"Detecting anomalies in general ledger data is of utmost importance to ensure\u0000trustworthiness of financial records. Financial audits increasingly rely on\u0000machine learning (ML) algorithms to identify irregular or potentially\u0000fraudulent journal entries, each characterized by a varying number of\u0000transactions. In machine learning, heterogeneity in feature dimensions adds\u0000significant complexity to data analysis. In this paper, we introduce a novel\u0000approach to anomaly detection in financial data using Large Language Models\u0000(LLMs) embeddings. To encode non-semantic categorical data from real-world\u0000financial records, we tested 3 pre-trained general purpose sentence-transformer\u0000models. For the downstream classification task, we implemented and evaluated 5\u0000optimized ML models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Gradient\u0000Boosting Machines, Support Vector Machines, and Neural Networks. Our\u0000experiments demonstrate that LLMs contribute valuable information to anomaly\u0000detection as our models outperform the baselines, in selected settings even by\u0000a large margin. The findings further underscore the effectiveness of LLMs in\u0000enhancing anomaly detection in financial journal entries, particularly by\u0000tackling feature sparsity. We discuss a promising perspective on using LLM\u0000embeddings for non-semantic data in the financial context and beyond.","PeriodicalId":501128,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Risk Management","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141548173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analisis cuantitativo de riesgos utilizando "MCSimulRisk" como herramienta didactica 将 "MCSimulRisk "作为教学工具进行定量风险分析
Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: arxiv-2405.20688
Fernando Acebes, David Curto, Juan de Anton, Felix Villafanez
Risk management is a fundamental discipline in project management, whichincludes, among others, quantitative risk analysis. Throughout several years ofteaching, we have observed difficulties in students performing Monte CarloSimulation within the quantitative analysis of risks. This article aims topresent MCSimulRisk as a teaching tool that allows students to perform MonteCarlo simulation and apply it to projects of any complexity simply andintuitively. This tool allows for incorporating any uncertainty identified inthe project into the model.
风险管理是项目管理的一门基础学科,其中包括定量风险分析。在几年的教学过程中,我们发现学生在进行风险定量分析的蒙特卡罗模拟时遇到了困难。本文旨在介绍 MCSimulRisk,作为一种教学工具,它可以让学生进行蒙特卡罗模拟,并简单直观地应用于任何复杂程度的项目。该工具可将项目中发现的任何不确定性纳入模型。
{"title":"Analisis cuantitativo de riesgos utilizando \"MCSimulRisk\" como herramienta didactica","authors":"Fernando Acebes, David Curto, Juan de Anton, Felix Villafanez","doi":"arxiv-2405.20688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2405.20688","url":null,"abstract":"Risk management is a fundamental discipline in project management, which\u0000includes, among others, quantitative risk analysis. Throughout several years of\u0000teaching, we have observed difficulties in students performing Monte Carlo\u0000Simulation within the quantitative analysis of risks. This article aims to\u0000present MCSimulRisk as a teaching tool that allows students to perform Monte\u0000Carlo simulation and apply it to projects of any complexity simply and\u0000intuitively. This tool allows for incorporating any uncertainty identified in\u0000the project into the model.","PeriodicalId":501128,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Risk Management","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141255012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Project Risk Management from the bottom-up: Activity Risk Index 自下而上的项目风险管理:活动风险指数
Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: arxiv-2406.00078
Fernando Acebes, Javier Pajares, Jose M Gonzalez-Varona, Adolfo Lopez-Paredes
Project managers need to manage risks throughout the project lifecycle and,thus, need to know how changes in activity durations influence project durationand risk. We propose a new indicator (the Activity Risk Index, ARI) thatmeasures the contribution of each activity to the total project risk while itis underway. In particular, the indicator informs us about what activitiescontribute the most to the project's uncertainty so that project managers canpay closer attention to the performance of these activities. The maindifference between our indicator and other activity sensitivity metrics in theliterature (e.g. cruciality, criticality, significance, or schedule sensitivityindices) is that our indicator is based on the Schedule Risk Baseline conceptinstead of on cost or schedule baselines. The new metric not only providesinformation at the beginning of the project, but also while it is underway.Furthermore, the ARI is the only one to offer a normalized result: if we addits value for each activity, the total sum is 100%.
项目经理需要在整个项目生命周期内管理风险,因此需要了解活动持续时间的变化对项目持续时间和风险的影响。我们提出了一个新指标(活动风险指数,ARI),用于衡量正在进行的每项活动对项目总风险的贡献。尤其是,该指标可以告诉我们哪些活动对项目的不确定性贡献最大,从而使项目经理可以更密切地关注这些活动的绩效。我们的指标与文献中的其他活动敏感性指标(如关键性、临界性、重要性或进度敏感性指标)的主要区别在于,我们的指标基于进度风险基线概念,而不是成本或进度基线。此外,ARI 是唯一一个提供标准化结果的指标:如果我们将每项活动的值相加,总和就是 100%。
{"title":"Project Risk Management from the bottom-up: Activity Risk Index","authors":"Fernando Acebes, Javier Pajares, Jose M Gonzalez-Varona, Adolfo Lopez-Paredes","doi":"arxiv-2406.00078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2406.00078","url":null,"abstract":"Project managers need to manage risks throughout the project lifecycle and,\u0000thus, need to know how changes in activity durations influence project duration\u0000and risk. We propose a new indicator (the Activity Risk Index, ARI) that\u0000measures the contribution of each activity to the total project risk while it\u0000is underway. In particular, the indicator informs us about what activities\u0000contribute the most to the project's uncertainty so that project managers can\u0000pay closer attention to the performance of these activities. The main\u0000difference between our indicator and other activity sensitivity metrics in the\u0000literature (e.g. cruciality, criticality, significance, or schedule sensitivity\u0000indices) is that our indicator is based on the Schedule Risk Baseline concept\u0000instead of on cost or schedule baselines. The new metric not only provides\u0000information at the beginning of the project, but also while it is underway.\u0000Furthermore, the ARI is the only one to offer a normalized result: if we add\u0000its value for each activity, the total sum is 100%.","PeriodicalId":501128,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Risk Management","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141254933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - QuantFin - Risk Management
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