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From catch-up to frontier: The utility model as a learning device to escape the middle-income trap 从追赶到前沿:实用模型作为摆脱中等收入陷阱的学习工具
Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: arxiv-2408.14205
Su Jung Jee, Kerstin Hötte
Escaping the middle-income trap requires a country to develop indigenoustechnological capabilities for high value-added innovation. This study examinesthe role of second-tier patent systems, known as utility models (UMs), inpromoting such capability acquisition in less developed countries. UMs aredesigned to incentivize incremental and adaptive innovation through lowernovelty standards than patents, but their long-term impact on the capabilityacquisition process remains underexplored. Using South Korea as a case studyand drawing on the characteristics of technological regimes in catching-upeconomies, we present three key findings: First, the country's post-catch-upfrontier technologies (U.S. patents) are more impactful (highly cited) whenthey build on Korean domestic UMs. This suggests that UM-based imitative andadaptive learning laid the foundation for the country's globally competitivecapabilities. Second, the impact of UM-based learning diminishes as thecountry's economy develops. Third, frontier technologies rooted in UMscontribute more to the country's own specialization than to follow-oninnovations by foreign actors, compared to technologies without UM linkages. Wediscuss how technological regimes and industrial policies in catching-upeconomies interact with the UM system to bridge the catching-up (imitation- andadaptation-based) and post-catching-up (specialization- and creativity-based)phases.
要摆脱中等收入陷阱,一个国家就必须发展本土技术能力,实现高附加值创新。本研究探讨了被称为实用新型(UMs)的二级专利制度在促进欠发达国家获得这种能力方面的作用。实用新型旨在通过低于专利的新颖性标准来激励渐进式和适应性创新,但其对能力获取过程的长期影响仍未得到充分探索。以韩国为案例,并借鉴追赶型经济体技术体制的特点,我们提出了三项重要发现:首先,当韩国的追赶型前沿技术(美国专利)建立在韩国国内的统一管理基础上时,其影响力更大(引用率更高)。这表明,基于 UM 的模仿和适应性学习为韩国的全球竞争能力奠定了基础。其次,随着国家经济的发展,基于 UM 的学习的影响会逐渐减弱。第三,与没有UM联系的技术相比,植根于UM的前沿技术对国家自身专业化的贡献要大于外国参与者的后续创新。我们讨论了追赶型经济体的技术制度和产业政策如何与统一市场体系相互作用,从而在追赶(基于模仿和适应)和后追赶(基于专业化和创造性)阶段之间架起桥梁。
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引用次数: 0
Import competition and domestic vertical integration: Theory and Evidence from Chinese firms 进口竞争与国内纵向一体化:来自中国企业的理论与证据
Pub Date : 2024-08-25 DOI: arxiv-2408.13706
Xin Du, Xiaoxia Shi
What impact does import competition have on firms' production organizationalchoices? Existing literature has predominantly focused on the relationshipbetween import competition and firms' global production networks, with lessattention given to domestic. We first develop a Nash-bargaining model to guideour empirical analysis, then utilize tariff changes as an exogenous shock totest our theoretical hypotheses using a database of Chinese listed firms from2000 to 2023. Our findings indicate that a decrease in downstream tariffs leadto an increase in vertical integration. In our mechanism tests, we discoverthat a reduction in upstream tariffs also enhances this effect. Moreover, theimpact of tariff reductions on vertical integration is primarily observed inindustries with high asset specificity, indicating that asset-specificity is acrucial mechanism. We further explore whether import competition encouragesvertical integration for technological acquisition purpose, the effect is foundonly among high-tech firms, while it's absent in non-high-tech firms. Ourresearch provides new perspectives and evidence on how firms optimize theirproduction organization in the process of globalization.
进口竞争对企业的生产组织选择有何影响?现有文献主要关注进口竞争与企业全球生产网络之间的关系,而较少关注国内生产网络。我们首先建立了一个纳什讨价还价模型来指导我们的实证分析,然后利用关税变化作为外生冲击,使用 2000 年至 2023 年中国上市公司数据库来检验我们的理论假设。我们的研究结果表明,下游关税的下降会导致纵向一体化的增加。在机制检验中,我们发现上游关税的降低也会增强这种效应。此外,关税下调对纵向一体化的影响主要体现在资产专用性较高的行业,这表明资产专用性是一个重要机制。我们进一步探讨了进口竞争是否会鼓励以技术获取为目的的纵向一体化,发现这种效应只存在于高科技企业中,而在非高科技企业中则不存在。我们的研究为企业在全球化过程中如何优化生产组织提供了新的视角和证据。
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引用次数: 0
ESG Rating Disagreement and Corporate Total Factor Productivity:Inference and Prediction ESG评级分歧与企业全要素生产率:推论与预测
Pub Date : 2024-08-25 DOI: arxiv-2408.13895
Zhanli Li
This paper explores the relationship between ESG rating disagreement andtotal factor productivity (TFP) based on data from Chinese domestic ESG ratingagencies and financial data of A-share listed companies in China from 2015 to2022. On one hand, the empirical results show that ESG rating disagreementreduces corporate TFP, a conclusion that is validated through multiplerobustness tests. The mechanism analysis reveals an interaction effect betweengreen innovation and ESG rating disagreement. Specifically, in firms withoutESG rating disagreement, green innovation promotes the improvement of TFP;however, in firms with disagreement, although ESG rating disagreement may drivegreen innovation, this does not lead to an increase in TFP. Furthermore, ESGrating disagreement lower corporate TFP by increasing financing constraints.The heterogeneity analysis indicates that this effect is more pronounced innon-state-owned, asset-intensive, and low-pollution enterprises. On the otherhand, XGBoost regression demonstrates that ESG rating disagreement play asignificant role in predicting TFP, with SHAP values showing that the maineffects are more evident in firms with larger ESG rating disagreement.
本文基于中国国内ESG评级机构的数据和2015-2022年中国A股上市公司的财务数据,探讨了ESG评级差异与全要素生产率(TFP)之间的关系。一方面,实证结果表明,ESG评级差异降低了企业全要素生产率,这一结论通过多残差检验得到了验证。机制分析揭示了绿色创新与ESG评级分歧之间的交互效应。具体而言,在不存在 ESG 评级分歧的企业中,绿色创新会促进全要素生产率的提高;但在存在分歧的企业中,尽管 ESG 评级分歧会推动绿色创新,但这并不会导致全要素生产率的提高。异质性分析表明,这种效应在非国有企业、资产密集型企业和低污染企业中更为明显。另一方面,XGBoost 回归表明,ESG 评级差异在预测全要素生产率方面发挥着重要作用,SHAP 值表明,ESG 评级差异较大的企业的主要效应更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
DeepVoting: Learning Voting Rules with Tailored Embeddings DeepVoting:利用定制嵌入学习投票规则
Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: arxiv-2408.13630
Leonardo Matone, Ben Abramowitz, Nicholas Mattei, Avinash Balakrishnan
Aggregating the preferences of multiple agents into a collective decision isa common step in many important problems across areas of computer scienceincluding information retrieval, reinforcement learning, and recommendersystems. As Social Choice Theory has shown, the problem of designing algorithmsfor aggregation rules with specific properties (axioms) can be difficult, orprovably impossible in some cases. Instead of designing algorithms by hand, onecan learn aggregation rules, particularly voting rules, from data. However, theprior work in this area has required extremely large models, or been limited bythe choice of preference representation, i.e., embedding. We recast the problemof designing a good voting rule into one of learning probabilistic versions ofvoting rules that output distributions over a set of candidates. Specifically,we use neural networks to learn probabilistic social choice functions from theliterature. We show that embeddings of preference profiles derived from thesocial choice literature allows us to learn existing voting rules moreefficiently and scale to larger populations of voters more easily than otherwork if the embedding is tailored to the learning objective. Moreover, we showthat rules learned using embeddings can be tweaked to create novel voting ruleswith improved axiomatic properties. Namely, we show that existing voting rulesrequire only minor modification to combat a probabilistic version of the NoShow Paradox.
将多个代理的偏好聚合成一个集体决策,是计算机科学领域许多重要问题(包括信息检索、强化学习和推荐系统)的共同步骤。正如社会选择理论(Social Choice Theory)所表明的那样,为具有特定属性(公理)的聚合规则设计算法可能是个难题,在某些情况下甚至是不可能的。与其手工设计算法,不如从数据中学习聚合规则,尤其是投票规则。然而,这一领域的前人工作需要极其庞大的模型,或受限于偏好表示(即嵌入)的选择。我们将设计一个好的投票规则的问题重塑为一个学习概率版投票规则的问题,该规则输出一组候选人的分布。具体来说,我们利用神经网络从文献中学习概率社会选择函数。我们的研究表明,如果嵌入是根据学习目标量身定做的,那么从社会选择文献中得出的偏好特征嵌入可以让我们更高效地学习现有的投票规则,并比其他工作更容易扩展到更大的选民群体。此外,我们还证明,利用嵌入学习到的规则可以进行调整,以创建具有改进公理属性的新型投票规则。也就是说,我们证明了现有的投票规则只需稍加修改,就能对抗概率版的 "无展示悖论"。
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引用次数: 0
The Future of Work: Inequality, Artificial Intelligence, and What Can Be Done About It. A Literature Review 工作的未来:不平等、人工智能以及可采取的对策。文献综述
Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: arxiv-2408.13300
Caleb Peppiatt
Generative Artificial Intelligence constitutes a new wave of automation.There is broad agreement among economists that humanity is potentially enteringinto a period of profound change. However, significant uncertainties anddisagreements exist concerning a variety of overlapping topics: the share ofjobs in which human labour is displaced and/or reinstated through automation;the effects on income inequality; the effects on job satisfaction; and,finally, what policy changes ought to be pursued to reduce potential negativeimpacts. This literature review seeks to clarify this landscape by mapping outkey disagreements between positions, and to identify the critical elements uponwhich such disagreements rest. By surveying the current literature, the effectsof AI on the future of work will be clarified.
经济学家普遍认为,人类有可能进入一个深刻变革的时期。然而,在许多相互重叠的话题上存在着重大的不确定性和分歧:通过自动化取代和/或恢复人类劳动的工作所占的比例;对收入不平等的影响;对工作满意度的影响;以及最后,应该采取哪些政策变化来减少潜在的负面影响。本文献综述试图通过勾勒不同立场之间的主要分歧来澄清这一现状,并找出这些分歧所依据的关键因素。通过对当前文献的研究,我们将澄清人工智能对未来工作的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the Effect of Market Risks on New Pension System and Government Responsibility 了解市场风险对新养老金制度和政府责任的影响
Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: arxiv-2408.13200
Sourish Das, Bikramaditya Datta, Shiv Ratan Tiwari
This study examines how market risks impact the sustainability andperformance of the New Pension System (NPS). NPS relies on definedcontributions from both employees and employers to build a corpus during theemployee's service period. Upon retirement, employees use the corpus fund tosustain their livelihood. A critical concern for individuals is whether thecorpus will grow sufficiently to be sustainable or if it will deplete, leavingthem financially vulnerable at an advanced age. We explore the impact of marketrisks on the performance of the corpus resulting from the NPS. To address this,we quantify market risks using Monte Carlo simulations with historical data tomodel their impact on NPS. We quantify the risk of pension corpus beinginsufficient and the cost to the Government to hedge the risk arising fromguaranteeing the pension.
本研究探讨了市场风险如何影响新养老金制度(NPS)的可持续性和绩效。新养老金制度依靠雇员和雇主双方的固定缴款,在雇员服务期间建立一个基金。退休后,雇员利用这笔资金维持生计。对个人而言,一个关键问题是,该基金是否会增长到足以维持生计的程度,或者是否会耗尽,从而使他们在年老时在经济上处于弱势。我们探讨了市场风险对新农保所产生的资金绩效的影响。为此,我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟法量化了市场风险,并利用历史数据模拟了市场风险对 NPS 的影响。我们量化了养老金基金不足的风险,以及政府为规避养老金担保所产生的风险而付出的成本。
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引用次数: 0
Education Opportunities for Rural Areas: Evidence from China's Higher Education Expansion 农村地区的教育机会:中国高等教育扩张的证据
Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: arxiv-2408.12915
Ande Shen, Jiwei Zhou
This paper explores the causal impact of education opportunities on ruralareas by exploiting the higher education expansion (HEE) in China in 1999. Byutilizing the detailed census data, the cohort-based difference-in-differencesdesign indicates that the HEE increased college attendance and encouraged morepeople to attend senior high schools and that the effect is more significant inrural areas. Then we apply a similar approach to a novel panel data set ofrural villages and households to examine the effect of education opportunitieson rural areas. We find contrasting impacts on income and life quality betweenvillages and households. Villages in provinces with higher HEE magnitudesunderwent a drop in the average income and worse living facilities. On thecontrary, households sending out migrants after the HEE experienced an increasein their per capita income. The phenomenon where villages experienced a ``braindrain'' and households with migrants gained after the HEE is explained by thefact that education could serve as a way to overcome the barrier of rural-urbanmigration. Our findings highlight the opposed impacts of educationopportunities on rural development and household welfare in rural areas.
本文利用 1999 年中国高等教育扩招(HEE)来探讨教育机会对农村地区的因果影响。通过利用详细的人口普查数据,基于队列的差分设计表明,高等教育扩招提高了大学入学率,并鼓励更多的人上高中,而且在农村地区效果更为显著。然后,我们将类似的方法应用于一个新的农村村庄和家庭面板数据集,以考察教育机会对农村地区的影响。我们发现不同村庄和家庭对收入和生活质量的影响截然不同。教育机会指数较高省份的村庄平均收入下降,生活设施恶化。与此相反,移民搬迁后的家庭人均收入增加了。村庄经历了 "外流",而移民家庭在户籍迁移考试后获得了收益,这一现象的原因是教育可以作为克服农村人口向城市迁移障碍的一种途径。我们的研究结果凸显了教育机会对农村发展和农村地区家庭福利的相反影响。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-border Commodity Pricing Strategy Optimization via Mixed Neural Network for Time Series Analysis 通过时间序列分析混合神经网络优化跨境商品定价策略
Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: arxiv-2408.12115
Lijuan Wang, Yijia Hu, Yan Zhou
In the context of global trade, cross-border commodity pricing largelydetermines the competitiveness and market share of businesses. However,existing methodologies often prove inadequate, as they lack the agility andprecision required to effectively respond to the dynamic international markets.Time series data is of great significance in commodity pricing and can revealmarket dynamics and trends. Therefore, we propose a new method based on thehybrid neural network model CNN-BiGRU-SSA. The goal is to achieve accurateprediction and optimization of cross-border commodity pricing strategiesthrough in-depth analysis and optimization of time series data. Our modelundergoes experimental validation across multiple datasets. The results showthat our method achieves significant performance advantages on datasets such asUNCTAD, IMF, WITS and China Customs. For example, on the UNCTAD dataset, ourmodel reduces MAE to 4.357, RMSE to 5.406, and R2 to 0.961, significantlybetter than other models. On the IMF and WITS datasets, our method alsoachieves similar excellent performance. These experimental results verify theeffectiveness and reliability of our model in the field of cross-bordercommodity pricing. Overall, this study provides an important reference forenterprises to formulate more reasonable and effective cross-border commoditypricing strategies, thereby enhancing market competitiveness and profitability.At the same time, our method also lays a foundation for the application of deeplearning in the fields of international trade and economic strategyoptimization, which has important theoretical and practical significance.
在全球贸易背景下,跨境商品定价在很大程度上决定了企业的竞争力和市场份额。时间序列数据对商品定价具有重要意义,可以揭示市场动态和趋势。因此,我们提出了一种基于混合神经网络模型 CNN-BiGRU-SSA 的新方法。目标是通过对时间序列数据的深入分析和优化,实现跨境商品定价策略的准确预测和优化。我们的模型在多个数据集上进行了实验验证。结果表明,我们的方法在贸发会议、国际货币基金组织、WITS 和中国海关等数据集上取得了显著的性能优势。例如,在 UNCTAD 数据集上,我们的模型将 MAE 降至 4.357,RMSE 降至 5.406,R2 降至 0.961,明显优于其他模型。在 IMF 和 WITS 数据集上,我们的方法也取得了类似的优异成绩。这些实验结果验证了我们的模型在跨境商品定价领域的有效性和可靠性。同时,我们的方法也为深度学习在国际贸易和经济战略优化领域的应用奠定了基础,具有重要的理论和实践意义。
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引用次数: 0
Making intellectual property rights work for climate technology transfer and innovation in developing countries 让知识产权为发展中国家的气候技术转让和创新服务
Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: arxiv-2408.12338
Su Jung Jee, Kerstin Hötte, Caoimhe Ring, Robert Burrell
This study investigates the controversial role of Intellectual PropertyRights (IPRs) in climate technology transfer and innovation in developingcountries. Using a systematic literature review and expert interviews, weassess the role of IPRs on three sources of climate technology: (1)international technology transfer, (2) adaptive innovation, and (3) indigenousinnovation. Our contributions are threefold. First, patents have limited impactin any of these channels, suggesting that current debates over IPRs may bedirected towards the wrong targets. Second, trademarks and utility modelsprovide incentives for climate innovation in the countries studied. Third,drawing from the results, we develop a framework to guide policy on how IPRscan work better in the broader context of climate and trade policies, outliningdistinct mechanisms to support mitigation and adaptation. Our results indicatethat market mechanisms, especially trade and demand-pull policies, should beprioritised for mitigation solutions. Adaptation differs, relying more onindigenous innovation due to local needs and low demand. Institutionalmechanisms, such as finance and co-development, should be prioritised to buildinnovation capacities for adaptation.
本研究调查了知识产权(IPRs)在发展中国家气候技术转让和创新中的争议性作用。通过系统的文献回顾和专家访谈,我们评估了知识产权在气候技术的三个来源中的作用:(1)国际技术转让,(2)适应性创新,以及(3)本土创新。我们的贡献有三方面。首先,专利在这些渠道中的影响都很有限,这表明目前关于知识产权的争论可能导向了错误的目标。第二,在所研究的国家,商标和实用新型为气候创新提供了激励。第三,根据研究结果,我们制定了一个政策指导框架,以指导知识产权如何在更广泛的气候和贸易政策背景下更好地发挥作用,并概述了支持减缓和适应的不同机制。我们的研究结果表明,市场机制,尤其是贸易和需求拉动政策,应优先用于减缓气候变化的解决方案。适应则不同,由于当地需求和低需求,更依赖于本土创新。应优先考虑制度机制,如融资和共同发展,以建立适应创新能力。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical Equilibria in Agent-based Economic systems with Learning agents 具有学习能力的代理经济系统中的经验均衡点
Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: arxiv-2408.12038
Kshama Dwarakanath, Svitlana Vyetrenko, Tucker Balch
We present an agent-based simulator for economic systems with heterogeneoushouseholds, firms, central bank, and government agents. These agents interactto define production, consumption, and monetary flow. Each agent type hasdistinct objectives, such as households seeking utility from consumption andthe central bank targeting inflation and production. We define this multi-agenteconomic system using an OpenAI Gym-style environment, enabling agents tooptimize their objectives through reinforcement learning. Standard multi-agentreinforcement learning (MARL) schemes, like independent learning, enable agentsto learn concurrently but do not address whether the resulting strategies areat equilibrium. This study integrates the Policy Space Response Oracle (PSRO)algorithm, which has shown superior performance over independent MARL in gameswith homogeneous agents, with economic agent-based modeling. We use PSRO todevelop agent policies approximating Nash equilibria of the empirical economicgame, thereby linking to economic equilibria. Our results demonstrate that PSROstrategies achieve lower regret values than independent MARL strategies in oureconomic system with four agent types. This work aims to bridge artificialintelligence, economics, and empirical game theory towards future research.
我们提出了一种基于代理的模拟器,用于模拟具有异质家庭、企业、中央银行和政府代理的经济系统。这些代理通过互动来定义生产、消费和货币流。每种代理类型都有不同的目标,例如家庭追求消费效用,而中央银行则以通货膨胀和生产为目标。我们使用 OpenAI Gym 风格的环境来定义这个多代理经济系统,使代理能够通过强化学习来优化其目标。标准的多代理强化学习(MARL)方案,如独立学习,能让代理同时学习,但并不解决所产生的策略是否达到均衡的问题。本研究将 "政策空间响应甲骨文(PSRO)"算法与基于经济代理的建模相结合,后者在同质代理的博弈中表现出优于独立 MARL 的性能。我们使用 PSRO 制定近似于实证经济博弈纳什均衡的代理策略,从而与经济均衡相联系。我们的研究结果表明,在有四种代理类型的经济系统中,PSRO策略比独立的MARL策略获得更低的后悔值。这项工作旨在为人工智能、经济学和实证博弈论架起一座桥梁,促进未来的研究。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - ECON - General Economics
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