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Policy consequences of the new neuroeconomic framework 新神经经济框架的政策后果
Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: arxiv-2409.07373
A. David Redish, Henri Scott Chastain, Carlisle Ford Runge, Brian M. Sweis, Scott E. Allen, Antara Haldar
Current theories of decision making suggest that the neural circuits inmammalian brains (including humans) computationally combine representations ofthe past (memory), present (perception), and future (agentic goals) to takeactions that achieve the needs of the agent. How information is representedwithin those neural circuits changes what computations are available to thatsystem which changes how agents interact with their world to take thoseactions. We argue that the computational neuroscience of decision makingprovides a new microeconomic framework (neuroeconomics) that offers newopportunities to construct policies that interact with those decision-makingsystems to improve outcomes. After laying out the computational processesunderlying decision making in mammalian brains, we present four applications ofthis logic with policy consequences: (1) contingency management as a treatmentfor addiction, (2) precommitment and the sensitivity to sunk costs, (3) mediaconsequences for changes in housing prices after a disaster, and (4) how socialinteractions underlie the success (and failure) of microfinance institutions.
当前的决策理论认为,哺乳动物(包括人类)大脑中的神经回路通过计算将过去(记忆)、现在(感知)和未来(行为主体目标)的表征结合起来,从而采取满足行为主体需求的行动。如何在这些神经回路中表征信息会改变该系统可进行的计算,从而改变代理如何与他们的世界互动以采取这些行动。我们认为,决策的计算神经科学提供了一个新的微观经济框架(神经经济学),为构建与这些决策系统互动以改善结果的政策提供了新的机会。在阐述了哺乳动物大脑中决策制定的计算过程之后,我们介绍了这一逻辑的四种具有政策后果的应用:(1)作为成瘾治疗方法的应急管理,(2)预先承诺和对沉没成本的敏感性,(3)灾难后住房价格变化的媒体后果,以及(4)社会互动是小额信贷机构成功(和失败)的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Evidence gathering under competitive and noncompetitive rewards 竞争性和非竞争性奖励下的证据收集
Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: arxiv-2409.06248
Philip Brookins, Jennifer Brown, Dmitry Ryvkin
Reward schemes may affect not only agents' effort, but also their incentivesto gather information to reduce the riskiness of the productive activity. In alaboratory experiment using a novel task, we find that the relationship betweenincentives and evidence gathering depends critically on the availability ofinformation about peers' strategies and outcomes. When no peer information isavailable, competitive rewards can be associated with more evidence gatheringthan noncompetitive rewards. In contrast, when decision-makers know what or howtheir peers are doing, competitive rewards schemes are associated with lessactive evidence gathering than noncompetitive schemes. The nature of thefeedback -- whether subjects receive information about peers' strategies,outcomes, or both -- also affects subjects' incentives to engage in evidencegathering. Specifically, only combined feedback about peers' strategies andperformance -- from which subjects may assess the overall relationship betweenevidence gathering, riskiness, and success -- is associated with less evidencegathering when rewards are based on relative performance; we find no similareffect for noncompetitive rewards.
奖励计划不仅会影响代理人的努力,还会影响他们收集信息以降低生产活动风险的动机。在一个使用新任务的合作实验中,我们发现激励与证据收集之间的关系主要取决于同伴策略和结果信息的可获得性。在没有同伴信息的情况下,竞争性奖励比非竞争性奖励更能促进证据收集。相反,当决策者知道他们的同伴在做什么或怎么做时,与非竞争性奖励计划相比,竞争性奖励计划与较少的主动证据收集有关。反馈的性质--受试者是否收到关于同伴策略、结果或两者的信息--也会影响受试者参与证据收集的动机。具体来说,当奖励基于相对绩效时,只有关于同伴策略和绩效的综合反馈(受试者可以从中评估证据收集、风险性和成功之间的整体关系)才与证据收集的减少有关;我们发现非竞争性奖励没有类似的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Watts and Bots: The Energy Implications of AI Adoption 瓦特和机器人:采用人工智能对能源的影响
Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: arxiv-2409.06626
Anthony Harding, Juan Moreno-Cruz
With the rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence, there are expectationsfor a proportional expansion of economic activity due to increasedproductivity, and with it energy consumption and its associated environmentalconsequences like carbon dioxide emissions. Here, we combine data on economicactivity, with early estimates of likely adoption of AI across occupations andindustries, to estimate the increase in energy use and carbon dioxide emissionsat the industry level and in aggregate for the US economy. At the industrylevel, energy use can increase between 0 and 12 PJ per year, while emissionsincrease between 47 tCO$_2$ and 272 ktCO$_2$. Aggregating across industries inthe US economy, this totals an increase in energy consumption of 28 PJ peryear, or around 0.03% of energy use per year in the US. We find this translatesto an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 896 ktCO$_2$ per year, or around0.02% of the CO$_2$ emissions per year in the US.
随着人工智能的迅猛发展,人们预期生产力的提高会相应地扩大经济活动,能源消耗及其相关的环境后果(如二氧化碳排放)也会随之增加。在此,我们结合经济活动数据,以及对各职业和行业可能采用人工智能的早期估计,估算出美国经济在行业层面和总体上的能源使用和二氧化碳排放量的增加。在行业层面,能源使用量每年会增加 0 到 12 PJ,而排放量则会增加 47 吨 CO$_2$ 到 272 千吨 CO$_2$。将美国经济中的各行业汇总起来,每年能源消耗共增加 28 千兆焦耳,约占美国每年能源使用量的 0.03%。我们发现,这意味着二氧化碳排放量每年增加 896 千吨 CO$_2$,约占美国每年 CO$_2$ 排放量的 0.02%。
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引用次数: 0
Contests with sequential moves: An experimental study 有连续动作的竞赛实验研究
Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: arxiv-2409.06230
Arthur B. Nelson, Dmitry Ryvkin
We study experimentally contests in which players make investment decisionssequentially, and information on prior investments is revealed between stages.Using a between-subject design, we consider all possible sequences in contestsof three players and test two major comparative statics of the subgame-perfectNash equilibrium: The positive effect of the number of stages on aggregateinvestment and earlier mover advantage. The former prediction is decidedlyrejected, as we observe a reduction in aggregate investment when moresequential information disclosure stages are added to the contest. The evidenceon earlier mover advantage is mixed but mostly does not support theory as well.Both predictions rely critically on large preemptive investment by first moversand accommodation by later movers, which does not materialize. Instead, latermovers respond aggressively, and reciprocally, to first movers' investments,while first movers learn to accommodate those responses.
我们通过实验研究了参赛者按顺序做出投资决策的竞赛,并在两个阶段之间揭示了先前的投资信息。我们采用主体间设计,考虑了三位参赛者竞赛中所有可能的顺序,并检验了亚博弈完全纳什均衡的两个主要比较静态:阶段数对总投资和先行者优势的积极影响。我们发现,当比赛中加入更多的信息披露阶段时,总投资会减少。关于先行者优势的证据好坏参半,但大多也不支持理论。这两个预测都主要依赖于先行者的大量先发制人投资和后发者的迁就,但这并没有实现。相反,后发者对先行者的投资做出了积极的、互惠的回应,而先行者则学会了适应这些回应。
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引用次数: 0
The Global Minimum Tax, Investment Incentives and Asymmetric Tax Competition 全球最低税、投资激励和不对称税收竞争
Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: arxiv-2409.05397
Xuyang Chen
This paper investigates how the OECD's global minimum tax (GMT) affectsmultinational enterprises (MNEs) behavior and countries' corporate taxes. Weconsider both profit shifting and capital investment responses of the MNE in aformal model of tax competition between asymmetric countries. The GMT reducesthe true tax rate differential and benefits the large country, while therevenue effect is generally ambiguous for the small country. In the short runwhere tax rates are fixed, due to tax deduction of the substance-based incomeexclusion (SBIE), a higher minimum rate exerts investment incentives but alsoincurs a larger revenue loss for the small country. We show that under high(low) profit shifting costs the former (latter) effect dominates so that thesmall country's revenue increases (decreases). In the long run where countriescan adjust tax rates, the GMT reshapes the tax game and the competitionpattern. In contrast to the existing literature, we reveal that the minimumrate binds the small country only if it is low. With the rise of the GMT rate,countries will undercut the minimum to boost real investments and collecttop-up taxes. For small market-size asymmetry and intermediate profit shiftingcost, the revenue loss from the elimination of profit shifting may dominate therevenue gain from taxing the true profits generated by substantive activities,so that even a marginal GMT reform may harm the small country. Otherwise, itcan raise the small country's tax revenue.
本文研究了经合组织的全球最低税(GMT)如何影响跨国企业(MNE)的行为和各国的企业税。在不对称国家间税收竞争的形式模型中,我们考虑了多国企业的利润转移和资本投资反应。格林威治标准时间缩小了真正的税率差异,有利于大国,而对小国来说,收入效应通常是模糊的。在税率固定的短期,由于基于物质的收入排除(SBIE)的税收减免,较高的最低税率会刺激投资,但也会给小国带来较大的收入损失。我们的研究表明,在利润转移成本高(低)的情况下,前(后)种效应占主导地位,因此小国的收入会增加(减少)。在国家可以调整税率的长期,GMT 重塑了税收博弈和竞争格局。与现有文献不同的是,我们发现只有当最低税率较低时,才会对小国产生约束。随着格林尼治标准税率的上升,各国将压低最低税率,以促进实际投资并征收最高税率。在市场规模不对称和中间利润转移成本较低的情况下,消除利润转移带来的收入损失可能会压倒对实质性活动产生的真实利润征税带来的收入收益,因此即使是微不足道的格林尼治标准改革也可能会损害小国的利益。否则,它可以增加小国的税收收入。
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引用次数: 0
Note on solving one-to-one matching models with linear transferable utility 关于解决具有线性可转移效用的一对一匹配模型的说明
Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: arxiv-2409.05518
Esben Scrivers Andersen
We derive a system of fixed-point equations for the equilibrium transfers ina class of one-to-one matching models with linear transferable utility. We thenshow that, when the degree of substitution between alternatives is bounded fromabove, the derived system of equations constitutes a contraction mapping. As aresult, fixed-point iterations are guaranteed to converge to the uniquedistribution of equilibrium transfers.
我们推导出一类具有线性可转移效用的一对一匹配模型中均衡转移的定点方程组。然后我们证明,当替代品之间的替代程度从上而下受到约束时,推导出的方程系统就构成了一个收缩映射。因此,定点迭代可以保证收敛到均衡转移的唯一分布。
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引用次数: 0
Patterns of Medical Care Cost by Service Type Associated with Lung Cancer Screening 与肺癌筛查相关的按服务类型划分的医疗费用模式
Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: arxiv-2409.06026
Kris Wain, Mahesh Maiyani, Nikki M. Carroll, Rafael Meza, Robert T. Greenlee, Christine Neslund-Dudas, Michelle R. Odelberg, Caryn Oshiro, Debra P. Ritzwoller
Introduction: Lung cancer screening (LCS) increases early-stage cancerdetection which may reduce cancer treatment costs. Little is known about howreceipt of LCS affects healthcare costs in real-world clinical settings. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed utilization and cost data from thePopulation-based Research to Optimize the Screening Process Lung Consortium. Weincluded individuals who met age and smoking LCS eligibility criteria and wereengaged within four healthcare systems between February 5, 2015, and December31, 2021. Generalized linear models estimated healthcare costs from the payerperspective during 12-months prior and 12-months post baseline LCS. We comparedthese costs to eligible individuals who did not receive LCS. Sensitivityanalyses expanded our sample to age-eligible individuals with any smokinghistory noted in the electronic health record. Secondary analyses examinedcosts among a sample diagnosed with lung cancer. We reported mean predictedcosts with average values for all other explanatory variables. Results: We identified 10,049 eligible individuals who received baseline LCSand 15,233 who did not receive baseline LCS. Receipt of baseline LCS wasassociated with additional costs of $3,698 compared to individuals notreceiving LCS. Secondary analyses showed suggestive evidence that LCS prior tocancer diagnosis decreased healthcare costs compared to cancer diagnosedwithout screening. Conclusion: These findings suggest LCS increases healthcare costs in the yearfollowing screening. However, LCS also improves early-stage cancer detectionand may reduce treatment costs following diagnosis. These results can informfuture simulation models to guide LCS recommendations, and aid health policydecision makers on resource allocation.
简介肺癌筛查(LCS)可提高早期癌症检测率,从而降低癌症治疗成本。在真实的临床环境中,人们对接受肺癌筛查如何影响医疗成本知之甚少。方法:这项回顾性研究分析了 "基于人群的肺部筛查优化研究联盟"(Population-based Research to Optimize the Screening Process Lung Consortium)提供的利用率和成本数据。我们纳入了符合年龄和吸烟 LCS 资格标准的个人,他们在 2015 年 2 月 5 日至 2021 年 12 月 31 日期间参与了四个医疗保健系统。广义线性模型从支付方角度估算了基线 LCS 之前 12 个月和之后 12 个月的医疗成本。我们将这些成本与未接受 LCS 的合格个人进行了比较。敏感性分析将样本扩大到电子健康记录中记录有任何吸烟史的符合年龄的人群。二次分析对确诊为肺癌的样本进行了成本调查。我们报告了预测成本的平均值以及所有其他解释变量的平均值。结果:我们确定了 10,049 名符合条件的患者接受了基线 LCS,15,233 名患者未接受基线 LCS。与未接受基线 LCS 的患者相比,接受基线 LCS 的患者的额外费用为 3,698 美元。二次分析显示,有提示性证据表明,与未经筛查确诊的癌症相比,癌症确诊前的 LCS 降低了医疗成本。结论:这些研究结果表明,LCS 会增加筛查后一年的医疗费用。然而,LCS 也能提高早期癌症的检测率,并可能降低诊断后的治疗成本。这些结果可以为未来的模拟模型提供信息,以指导 LCS 建议,并帮助医疗决策者进行资源分配。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal In-Kind Redistribution 最佳实物再分配
Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: arxiv-2409.06112
Zi Yang Kang, Mitchell Watt
This paper develops a model of in-kind redistribution where consumersparticipate in either a private market or a government-designed program, butnot both. We characterize when a social planner, seeking to maximize weightedtotal surplus, can strictly improve upon the laissez-faire outcome. We showthat the optimal mechanism consists of three components: a public option,nonlinear subsidies, and laissez-faire consumption. We quantify the resultingdistortions and relate them to the correlation between consumer demand andwelfare weights. Our findings reveal that while private market accessconstrains the social planner's ability to redistribute, it also strengthensthe rationale for non-market allocations.
本文建立了一个实物再分配模型,在这个模型中,消费者要么参与私人市场,要么参与政府设计的计划,但不能同时参与两者。我们描述了寻求加权总盈余最大化的社会规划者何时能够严格改善自由放任的结果。我们证明,最优机制由三部分组成:公共选择、非线性补贴和自由放任消费。我们对由此产生的扭曲进行了量化,并将其与消费者需求和福利权重之间的相关性联系起来。我们的研究结果表明,虽然私人市场的准入限制了社会规划者的再分配能力,但同时也加强了非市场分配的合理性。
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引用次数: 0
Platform-Mediated Consolidation and Offline Store Expansion: Evidence from Real Estate Brokerages in Major Chinese Cities 以平台为媒介的整合与线下门店扩张:来自中国主要城市房地产经纪公司的证据
Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: arxiv-2409.04326
Guoying Deng, Xuyuan Zhang
This study examines the impact of offline store expansion by Lianjia, China'sleading real estate brokerage, within the framework of platform-mediatedconsolidation. By analyzing micro-level transactions of second-hand houses fromLianjia in ten major Chinese cities from 2016 to 2022, this researchinvestigates how the transaction patterns of traditional brokerages,characterized by the strategic clustering of offline stores, transition towardsplatform-mediated consolidation, thereby facilitating the development of anextensive franchise network. Utilizing a regression discontinuity design (RDD),this study quantifies the optimal influence radius of offline stores (410meters) on housing transactions. this study empirically estimates the effectsof real estate brokerage's offline store expansion and platform-mediatedconsolidation on transaction properties. The results indicate that thisstrategy significantly boosts revenues and attracts more people to housingtours. Additionally, the results suggest that neither the platform-mediatedstrategy nor offline expansion affects the transaction period, but offlinestore expansion can reduce the price gap between sellers and buyers.Furthermore, this study introduces a measure of network effect, revealing thatLianjia's offline stores exhibit a local clustering pattern with moderatenetwork strength. The analysis of platform-mediated consolidation indicates asignificantly positive effect on network strength. This study provides valuableinsights into the synergy between offline store expansion and online platformdevelopment, elucidating future trajectories in the evolving real estatebrokerage market and analogous sectors.
本研究在平台中介整合的框架下,探讨了中国领先的房地产经纪公司--链家的线下门店扩张所带来的影响。通过分析 2016 年至 2022 年连家网在中国十个主要城市的二手房微观交易情况,本研究探讨了以线下门店战略集群为特征的传统经纪公司的交易模式如何向平台中介整合转型,从而促进了广泛的加盟网络的发展。本研究利用回归不连续设计(RDD),量化了线下门店对房屋交易的最佳影响半径(410 米)。本研究实证估计了房地产经纪公司的线下门店扩张和平台中介整合对交易属性的影响。结果表明,这一策略大大提高了收入,并吸引了更多的人前来看房。此外,研究还引入了网络效应的衡量指标,结果表明,联家网的线下门店呈现出中度网络强度的局部集聚模式。对平台中介整合的分析表明,平台中介整合对网络强度有显著的积极影响。本研究为线下门店扩张与线上平台发展之间的协同作用提供了有价值的见解,阐明了不断发展的房地产经纪市场和类似行业的未来发展轨迹。
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引用次数: 0
Replicating The Log of Gravity 复制万有引力日志
Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: arxiv-2409.09066
Mauricio Vargas Sepúlveda
This document replicates the main results from Santos Silva and Tenreyro(2006 in R. The original results were obtained in TSP back in 2006. The ideahere is to be explicit regarding the conceptual approach to regression in R.For most of the replication I used base R without external libraries exceptwhen it was absolutely necessary. The findings are consistent with the originalarticle and reveal that the replication effort is minimal, without the need tocontact the authors for clarifications or incur into data transformations orfiltering not mentioned in the article.
本文用 R 语言复制了 Santos Silva 和 Tenreyro(2006 年)的主要结果。在大部分复制过程中,我使用了基本 R 语言,没有使用外部库,除非有绝对必要。研究结果与原始文章一致,并且表明复制工作非常简单,无需联系作者进行澄清,也无需进行文章中未提及的数据转换或过滤。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - ECON - General Economics
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