Kevin Riehl, Anastasios Kouvelas, Michail Makridis
Traffic engineering aims to control infrastructure and population behavior to achieve optimal usage of road networks. Fairness is fundamental to stimulate cooperation in large populations, and plays an important role in traffic engineering, as it increases the well-being of users, improves driving safety by rule-adherence, and overcomes public resistance at legislative implementation. Despite the importance of fairness, only a few works have translated fairness into the transportation domain, with a focus on transportation planning rather than traffic engineering. This work highlights the importance of fairness when solving conflicts of large populations for scare, public good, road-network resources with traffic engineering, and establishes a connection to the modern fairness theories. Moreover, this work presents a fairness framework that serves when designing traffic engineering solutions, when convincing in public debates with a useful, argumentative tool-set to confront equity considerations, and enables systematic research and design of control systems.
{"title":"Towards fair roads -- Why we should & how to improve the fairness in traffic engineering","authors":"Kevin Riehl, Anastasios Kouvelas, Michail Makridis","doi":"arxiv-2408.01309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.01309","url":null,"abstract":"Traffic engineering aims to control infrastructure and population behavior to\u0000achieve optimal usage of road networks. Fairness is fundamental to stimulate\u0000cooperation in large populations, and plays an important role in traffic\u0000engineering, as it increases the well-being of users, improves driving safety\u0000by rule-adherence, and overcomes public resistance at legislative\u0000implementation. Despite the importance of fairness, only a few works have\u0000translated fairness into the transportation domain, with a focus on\u0000transportation planning rather than traffic engineering. This work highlights\u0000the importance of fairness when solving conflicts of large populations for\u0000scare, public good, road-network resources with traffic engineering, and\u0000establishes a connection to the modern fairness theories. Moreover, this work\u0000presents a fairness framework that serves when designing traffic engineering\u0000solutions, when convincing in public debates with a useful, argumentative\u0000tool-set to confront equity considerations, and enables systematic research and\u0000design of control systems.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We experimentally study voter turnout in two-tier elections when the electorate consists of multiple groups, such as states. Votes are aggregated within the groups by the winner-take-all rule or the proportional rule, and the group-level decisions are combined to determine the winner. We observe that, compared with the theoretical prediction, turnout is significantly lower in the minority camp (the Titanic effect) and significantly higher in the majority camp (the behavioral bandwagon effect), and these effects are stronger under the proportional rule than under the winner-take-all rule. As a result, the distribution of voter welfare becomes more unequal than theoretically predicted, and this welfare effect is stronger under the proportional rule than under the winner-take-all rule.
{"title":"Jumping on the bandwagon and off the Titanic: an experimental study of turnout in two-tier voting","authors":"Yoichi Hizen, Kazuya Kikuchi, Yukio Koriyama, Takehito Masuda","doi":"arxiv-2408.00265","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.00265","url":null,"abstract":"We experimentally study voter turnout in two-tier elections when the\u0000electorate consists of multiple groups, such as states. Votes are aggregated\u0000within the groups by the winner-take-all rule or the proportional rule, and the\u0000group-level decisions are combined to determine the winner. We observe that,\u0000compared with the theoretical prediction, turnout is significantly lower in the\u0000minority camp (the Titanic effect) and significantly higher in the majority\u0000camp (the behavioral bandwagon effect), and these effects are stronger under\u0000the proportional rule than under the winner-take-all rule. As a result, the\u0000distribution of voter welfare becomes more unequal than theoretically\u0000predicted, and this welfare effect is stronger under the proportional rule than\u0000under the winner-take-all rule.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141884658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most importantly, these forecasts are essential for the operational management of power plants, ensuring supply security and grid stability, and in guiding energy trading and investment decisions. The primary challenge for this forecasting task lies in disentangling the multifaceted drivers of load, which include national deterministic (daily, weekly, annual, and holiday patterns) and national stochastic weather and autoregressive effects. Additionally, transnational stochastic socio-economic and political effects add further complexity, in particular, due to their non-stationarity. To address this challenge, we present an interpretable probabilistic mid-term forecasting model for the hourly load that captures, besides all deterministic effects, the various uncertainties in load. This model recognizes transnational dependencies across 24 European countries, with multivariate modeled socio-economic and political states and cross-country dependent forecasting. Built from interpretable Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), the model enables an analysis of the transmission of each incorporated effect to the hour-specific load. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of countries reliant on electric heating under extreme weather scenarios. This emphasizes the need for high-resolution forecasting of weather effects on pan-European electricity consumption especially in anticipation of widespread electric heating adoption.
{"title":"Spatial Weather, Socio-Economic and Political Risks in Probabilistic Load Forecasting","authors":"Monika Zimmermann, Florian Ziel","doi":"arxiv-2408.00507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.00507","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European\u0000socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the\u0000mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent\u0000uncertainty. Most importantly, these forecasts are essential for the\u0000operational management of power plants, ensuring supply security and grid\u0000stability, and in guiding energy trading and investment decisions. The primary\u0000challenge for this forecasting task lies in disentangling the multifaceted\u0000drivers of load, which include national deterministic (daily, weekly, annual,\u0000and holiday patterns) and national stochastic weather and autoregressive\u0000effects. Additionally, transnational stochastic socio-economic and political\u0000effects add further complexity, in particular, due to their non-stationarity.\u0000To address this challenge, we present an interpretable probabilistic mid-term\u0000forecasting model for the hourly load that captures, besides all deterministic\u0000effects, the various uncertainties in load. This model recognizes transnational\u0000dependencies across 24 European countries, with multivariate modeled\u0000socio-economic and political states and cross-country dependent forecasting.\u0000Built from interpretable Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), the model enables\u0000an analysis of the transmission of each incorporated effect to the\u0000hour-specific load. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of countries\u0000reliant on electric heating under extreme weather scenarios. This emphasizes\u0000the need for high-resolution forecasting of weather effects on pan-European\u0000electricity consumption especially in anticipation of widespread electric\u0000heating adoption.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141884652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Is geography destiny? What is the role of first-nature geography in determining prosperity? This paper estimates the effect of randomly removing and introducing favorable first-nature geography to a specific region using a difference in difference design. In 1825 a storm created a new natural navigable waterway, bringing trade and prosperity to the otherwise relatively isolated northwestern Denmark. 700 years prior, the same event happened in reverse, when a previous channel closed up between 1086 and 1208. The elasticity of geography-induced market access is estimated to be 1.6, corresponding to 26.7 percent population growth within a generation of the event. Demonstrated mechanisms include trade, fertility, fishing, and the rise of manufacturing. The central finding is replicated in reverse in a register of dated archaeological sites. The 1086-1208 closing caused fewer buildings and sites containing coins. The general insight is the same: First-nature geography determines the levels and location of prosperity.
{"title":"A Perfect Storm: First-Nature Geography and Economic Development","authors":"Christian Vedel","doi":"arxiv-2408.00885","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.00885","url":null,"abstract":"Is geography destiny? What is the role of first-nature geography in\u0000determining prosperity? This paper estimates the effect of randomly removing\u0000and introducing favorable first-nature geography to a specific region using a\u0000difference in difference design. In 1825 a storm created a new natural\u0000navigable waterway, bringing trade and prosperity to the otherwise relatively\u0000isolated northwestern Denmark. 700 years prior, the same event happened in\u0000reverse, when a previous channel closed up between 1086 and 1208. The\u0000elasticity of geography-induced market access is estimated to be 1.6,\u0000corresponding to 26.7 percent population growth within a generation of the\u0000event. Demonstrated mechanisms include trade, fertility, fishing, and the rise\u0000of manufacturing. The central finding is replicated in reverse in a register of\u0000dated archaeological sites. The 1086-1208 closing caused fewer buildings and\u0000sites containing coins. The general insight is the same: First-nature geography\u0000determines the levels and location of prosperity.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Victoria Junquera, Daniel I. Rubenstein, Simon A. Levin, José I. Hormaza, Iñaki Vadillo Pérez, Pablo Jiménez Gavilán
Spain is the largest producer of avocado and mango fruits in Europe. The majority of production is concentrated in the Axarqu'ia region in the south, where subtropical fruit plantations and associated water demands have steadily increased over the last two decades. Between 2019-2024, the region underwent an extreme water crisis. Reservoir reserves became nearly depleted and groundwater levels dropped to sea level in several locations, where seawater intrusion is likely, causing large socioeconomic impacts including short-term harvest losses and a long-term loss in economic centrality. We examine the causal pathway that led to this crisis using a mixed-methods approach, combining data from key informant interviews, an exhaustive review of legal documents, and quantitative analysis of time series and spatially explicit data. In particular, we analyze dam water use for irrigation and urban use, meteorological data, reservoir and groundwater levels, and irrigation land cover maps. Our findings show that an unusual meteorological drought was the immediate cause for the decline in reservoir and groundwater reserves (hydrological drought), but the underlying cause was a chronic and structural long-term imbalance between water demand and resources resulting from several structural governance shortcomings: large uncertainties in water resource availability and use hampering effective planning, lack of enforcement of individual water quotas, and the absence of regulatory mechanisms to flexibly impose resource use restrictions at both micro and macro levels based on the overall resources of the system. We propose concrete policy interventions aimed at sustainably enhancing the resilience of the system that can be useful to efficiently manage water shortages in other regions with similar problems.
{"title":"Hydrological collapse in southern Spain under expanding irrigated agriculture: Meteorological, hydrological, and structural drought","authors":"Victoria Junquera, Daniel I. Rubenstein, Simon A. Levin, José I. Hormaza, Iñaki Vadillo Pérez, Pablo Jiménez Gavilán","doi":"arxiv-2408.00683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.00683","url":null,"abstract":"Spain is the largest producer of avocado and mango fruits in Europe. The\u0000majority of production is concentrated in the Axarqu'ia region in the south,\u0000where subtropical fruit plantations and associated water demands have steadily\u0000increased over the last two decades. Between 2019-2024, the region underwent an\u0000extreme water crisis. Reservoir reserves became nearly depleted and groundwater\u0000levels dropped to sea level in several locations, where seawater intrusion is\u0000likely, causing large socioeconomic impacts including short-term harvest losses\u0000and a long-term loss in economic centrality. We examine the causal pathway that\u0000led to this crisis using a mixed-methods approach, combining data from key\u0000informant interviews, an exhaustive review of legal documents, and quantitative\u0000analysis of time series and spatially explicit data. In particular, we analyze\u0000dam water use for irrigation and urban use, meteorological data, reservoir and\u0000groundwater levels, and irrigation land cover maps. Our findings show that an\u0000unusual meteorological drought was the immediate cause for the decline in\u0000reservoir and groundwater reserves (hydrological drought), but the underlying\u0000cause was a chronic and structural long-term imbalance between water demand and\u0000resources resulting from several structural governance shortcomings: large\u0000uncertainties in water resource availability and use hampering effective\u0000planning, lack of enforcement of individual water quotas, and the absence of\u0000regulatory mechanisms to flexibly impose resource use restrictions at both\u0000micro and macro levels based on the overall resources of the system. We propose\u0000concrete policy interventions aimed at sustainably enhancing the resilience of\u0000the system that can be useful to efficiently manage water shortages in other\u0000regions with similar problems.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"190 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141884651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Studies looking at electricity market designs for very high shares of wind and solar often conclude that the energy-only market will break down. Without fuel costs, it is said that there is nothing to set prices. Symptoms of breakdown include long phases of zero prices, scarcity prices too high to be politically acceptable, prices that collapse under small perturbations of capacities from the long-term equilibrium, cost recovery that is impossible due to low market values, high variability of revenue between different weather years, and difficulty operating long-term storage with limited foresight. We argue that all these problems are an artefact of modeling with perfectly inelastic demand. If short-term elasticity to reflect today's flexible demand (-5%) is implemented in the model, these problems are significantly reduced. The combined interaction of demand willingness to pay and storage opportunity costs is enough to produce stable pricing. This behavior is illustrated by a model with wind, solar, batteries, and hydrogen-based storage, where a piecewise linear demand curve removes high price peaks and reduces the fraction of zero-price hours from 90% to around 30%, and entails more price stability for perturbations of capacity and different weather years. Furthermore, we show that with elastic demand, the long-term model exactly reproduces the prices of the short-term model with the same capacities. We then use insights from the long-term model to derive simple bidding strategies for storage so that we can also run the short-term model with limited operational foresight. We demonstrate this short-term operation in a model trained on 35 years of weather data and tested on another 35 years of unseen data. We conclude that the energy-only market can still play a key role in coordinating dispatch and investment in the future.
{"title":"Price formation without fuel costs: the interaction of elastic demand with storage bidding","authors":"Tom Brown, Fabian Neumann, Iegor Riepin","doi":"arxiv-2407.21409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2407.21409","url":null,"abstract":"Studies looking at electricity market designs for very high shares of wind\u0000and solar often conclude that the energy-only market will break down. Without\u0000fuel costs, it is said that there is nothing to set prices. Symptoms of\u0000breakdown include long phases of zero prices, scarcity prices too high to be\u0000politically acceptable, prices that collapse under small perturbations of\u0000capacities from the long-term equilibrium, cost recovery that is impossible due\u0000to low market values, high variability of revenue between different weather\u0000years, and difficulty operating long-term storage with limited foresight. We\u0000argue that all these problems are an artefact of modeling with perfectly\u0000inelastic demand. If short-term elasticity to reflect today's flexible demand\u0000(-5%) is implemented in the model, these problems are significantly reduced.\u0000The combined interaction of demand willingness to pay and storage opportunity\u0000costs is enough to produce stable pricing. This behavior is illustrated by a\u0000model with wind, solar, batteries, and hydrogen-based storage, where a\u0000piecewise linear demand curve removes high price peaks and reduces the fraction\u0000of zero-price hours from 90% to around 30%, and entails more price stability\u0000for perturbations of capacity and different weather years. Furthermore, we show\u0000that with elastic demand, the long-term model exactly reproduces the prices of\u0000the short-term model with the same capacities. We then use insights from the\u0000long-term model to derive simple bidding strategies for storage so that we can\u0000also run the short-term model with limited operational foresight. We\u0000demonstrate this short-term operation in a model trained on 35 years of weather\u0000data and tested on another 35 years of unseen data. We conclude that the\u0000energy-only market can still play a key role in coordinating dispatch and\u0000investment in the future.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lingwei Cheng, Cameron Drayton, Alexandra Chouldechova, Rhema Vaithianathan
The demand for housing assistance across the United States far exceeds the supply, leaving housing providers the task of prioritizing clients for receipt of this limited resource. To be eligible for federal funding, local homelessness systems are required to implement assessment tools as part of their prioritization processes. The Vulnerability Index Service Prioritization Decision Assistance Tool (VI-SPDAT) is the most commonly used assessment tool nationwide. Recent studies have criticized the VI-SPDAT as exhibiting racial bias, which may lead to unwarranted racial disparities in housing provision. Such criticisms have led certain jurisdictions to develop alternative tools. Using data from one such prioritization tool, called the Allegheny Housing Assessment (AHA), we use descriptive and quantitative analysis to assess whether the replacement of the VI-SPDAT with the AHA impacts racial disparities in housing allocation. We find that the VI-SPDAT tended to assign higher risk scores to white clients and lower risk scores to Black clients, and that white clients were served at a higher rates pre-AHA deployment. While post-deployment service decisions became better aligned with the AHA score, and the distribution of AHA scores is similar across racial groups, we do not find evidence of a corresponding decrease in disparities in service rates. We attribute the persistent disparity to the use of Alt-AHA, a survey-based tool that is used in cases of low data quality, as well as group differences in eligibility-related factors, such as chronic homelessness and veteran status. We discuss the implications for housing service systems seeking to reduce racial disparities in their service delivery.
美国各地对住房援助的需求远远超过了供应量，因此住房提供者的任务就是对接受这一有限资源的客户进行优先排序。为了有资格获得联邦资助，当地的无家可归者系统必须使用评估工具，作为其优先排序程序的一部分。脆弱性指数服务优先决策辅助工具（VI-SPDAT）是全国范围内最常用的评估工具。最近的一些研究批评 VI-SPDAT 有种族偏见，可能会导致在住房供应方面出现不必要的种族差异。我们利用其中一个名为 "阿勒格尼住房评估"（AHA）的优先排序工具的数据，通过描述性分析和定量分析来评估用 AHA 取代 VI-SPDAT 是否会影响住房分配中的种族差异。我们发现，VI-SPDAT 倾向于为白人客户分配较高的风险分值，而为黑人客户分配较低的风险分值。虽然部署后的服务决定与 AHA 分数更加一致，而且不同种族群体的 AHA 分数分布也相似，但我们并未发现服务率差距相应缩小的证据。我们将持续存在的差异归因于 Alt-AHA 的使用，这是一种基于调查的工具，用于数据质量较低的情况，以及与资格相关因素（如长期无家可归和退伍军人身份）的群体差异。
{"title":"Algorithm-Assisted Decision Making and Racial Disparities in Housing: A Study of the Allegheny Housing Assessment Tool","authors":"Lingwei Cheng, Cameron Drayton, Alexandra Chouldechova, Rhema Vaithianathan","doi":"arxiv-2407.21209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2407.21209","url":null,"abstract":"The demand for housing assistance across the United States far exceeds the\u0000supply, leaving housing providers the task of prioritizing clients for receipt\u0000of this limited resource. To be eligible for federal funding, local\u0000homelessness systems are required to implement assessment tools as part of\u0000their prioritization processes. The Vulnerability Index Service Prioritization\u0000Decision Assistance Tool (VI-SPDAT) is the most commonly used assessment tool\u0000nationwide. Recent studies have criticized the VI-SPDAT as exhibiting racial\u0000bias, which may lead to unwarranted racial disparities in housing provision.\u0000Such criticisms have led certain jurisdictions to develop alternative tools.\u0000Using data from one such prioritization tool, called the Allegheny Housing\u0000Assessment (AHA), we use descriptive and quantitative analysis to assess\u0000whether the replacement of the VI-SPDAT with the AHA impacts racial disparities\u0000in housing allocation. We find that the VI-SPDAT tended to assign higher risk\u0000scores to white clients and lower risk scores to Black clients, and that white\u0000clients were served at a higher rates pre-AHA deployment. While post-deployment\u0000service decisions became better aligned with the AHA score, and the\u0000distribution of AHA scores is similar across racial groups, we do not find\u0000evidence of a corresponding decrease in disparities in service rates. We\u0000attribute the persistent disparity to the use of Alt-AHA, a survey-based tool\u0000that is used in cases of low data quality, as well as group differences in\u0000eligibility-related factors, such as chronic homelessness and veteran status.\u0000We discuss the implications for housing service systems seeking to reduce\u0000racial disparities in their service delivery.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"96 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hyoji Choi, Frank Neffke, Donghyeon Yu, Bogang Jun
This study explores how the relatedness density of amenities influences consumer buying patterns, focusing on multi-purpose shopping preferences. Using Seoul's credit card data from 2018 to 2023, we find a clear preference for shopping at amenities close to consumers' residences, particularly for trips within a 2 km radius, where relatedness density significantly influences purchasing decisions. The COVID-19 pandemic initially reduced this effect at shorter distances but rebounded in 2023, suggesting a resilient return to pre-pandemic patterns, which vary over regions. Our findings highlight the resilience of local shopping preferences despite economic disruptions, underscoring the importance of amenity-relatedness in urban consumer behavior.
{"title":"Close to Home: Analyzing Urban Consumer Behavior and Consumption Space in Seoul","authors":"Hyoji Choi, Frank Neffke, Donghyeon Yu, Bogang Jun","doi":"arxiv-2407.20587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2407.20587","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores how the relatedness density of amenities influences\u0000consumer buying patterns, focusing on multi-purpose shopping preferences. Using\u0000Seoul's credit card data from 2018 to 2023, we find a clear preference for\u0000shopping at amenities close to consumers' residences, particularly for trips\u0000within a 2 km radius, where relatedness density significantly influences\u0000purchasing decisions. The COVID-19 pandemic initially reduced this effect at\u0000shorter distances but rebounded in 2023, suggesting a resilient return to\u0000pre-pandemic patterns, which vary over regions. Our findings highlight the\u0000resilience of local shopping preferences despite economic disruptions,\u0000underscoring the importance of amenity-relatedness in urban consumer behavior.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"270 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I examine changes in matching efficiency and elasticities in Japan's labor market via Hello Work for unemployed workers from January 1972 to April 2024 using a nonparametric identification approach by Lange and Papageorgiou (2020). I find a declining trend in matching efficiency, consistent with decreasing job and worker finding rates. The implied match elasticity with respect to unemployment is 0.5-0.9, whereas the implied match elasticity with respect to vacancies is 0.1-0.4. Decomposing aggregate data into full-time and part-time ones, I find that the sharp decline of matching efficiency after 2015 shown in the aggregate trend is driven by the decline of both full-time and part-time ones. Second, I extend the mismatch index proposed by Sahin et al (2014) to the nonparametric version and develop the computational methodology. I find that the mismatch across job categories is more severe than across prefectures and the original Cobb-Douglas mismatch index is underestimated.
{"title":"Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Mismatch in Labor Markets via Public Employment Security Offices in Japan, 1972-2024","authors":"Suguru Otani","doi":"arxiv-2407.20931","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2407.20931","url":null,"abstract":"I examine changes in matching efficiency and elasticities in Japan's labor\u0000market via Hello Work for unemployed workers from January 1972 to April 2024\u0000using a nonparametric identification approach by Lange and Papageorgiou (2020).\u0000I find a declining trend in matching efficiency, consistent with decreasing job\u0000and worker finding rates. The implied match elasticity with respect to\u0000unemployment is 0.5-0.9, whereas the implied match elasticity with respect to\u0000vacancies is 0.1-0.4. Decomposing aggregate data into full-time and part-time\u0000ones, I find that the sharp decline of matching efficiency after 2015 shown in\u0000the aggregate trend is driven by the decline of both full-time and part-time\u0000ones. Second, I extend the mismatch index proposed by Sahin et al (2014) to the\u0000nonparametric version and develop the computational methodology. I find that\u0000the mismatch across job categories is more severe than across prefectures and\u0000the original Cobb-Douglas mismatch index is underestimated.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The sharing economy is sprawling across almost every sector and activity around the world. About a decade ago, there were only a handful of platform driven companies operating on the market. Zipcar, BlaBlaCar and Couchsurfing among them. Then Airbnb and Uber revolutionized the transportation and hospitality industries with a presence in virtually every major city. Access over ownership is the paradigm shift from the traditional business model that grants individuals the use of products or services without the necessity of buying them. Digital platforms, data and algorithm-driven companies as well as decentralized blockchain technologies have tremendous potential. But they are also changing the rules of the game. One of such technologies challenging the legal system are AI systems that will also reshape the current legal framework concerning the liability of operators, users and manufacturers. Therefore, this introductory chapter deals with explaining and describing the legal issues of some of these disruptive technologies. The chapter argues for a more forward-thinking and flexible regulatory structure.
{"title":"Legal Aspects of Decentralized and Platform-Driven Economies","authors":"Marcelo Corrales Compagnucci, Toshiyuki Kono, Shinto Teramoto","doi":"arxiv-2407.20301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2407.20301","url":null,"abstract":"The sharing economy is sprawling across almost every sector and activity\u0000around the world. About a decade ago, there were only a handful of platform\u0000driven companies operating on the market. Zipcar, BlaBlaCar and Couchsurfing\u0000among them. Then Airbnb and Uber revolutionized the transportation and\u0000hospitality industries with a presence in virtually every major city. Access\u0000over ownership is the paradigm shift from the traditional business model that\u0000grants individuals the use of products or services without the necessity of\u0000buying them. Digital platforms, data and algorithm-driven companies as well as\u0000decentralized blockchain technologies have tremendous potential. But they are\u0000also changing the rules of the game. One of such technologies challenging the\u0000legal system are AI systems that will also reshape the current legal framework\u0000concerning the liability of operators, users and manufacturers. Therefore, this\u0000introductory chapter deals with explaining and describing the legal issues of\u0000some of these disruptive technologies. The chapter argues for a more\u0000forward-thinking and flexible regulatory structure.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"362 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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