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Short-maturity Asian options in local-stochastic volatility models 局部随机波动率模型中的短期亚洲期权
Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: arxiv-2409.08377
Dan Pirjol, Lingjiong Zhu
We derive the short-maturity asymptotics for Asian option prices inlocal-stochastic volatility (LSV) models. Both out-of-the-money (OTM) andat-the-money (ATM) asymptotics are considered. Using large deviations theorymethods, the asymptotics for the OTM options are expressed as a rate functionwhich is represented as a two-dimensional variational problem. We develop anovel expansion method for the variational problem by expanding the ratefunction around the ATM point. In particular, we derive series expansions inlog-moneyness for the solution of this variational problem around the ATMpoint, and obtain explicit results for the first three terms. We give the ATMvolatility level, skew and convexity of the implied volatility of an Asianoption in a general local-stochastic volatility model, which can be used as anapproximation for pricing Asian options with strikes sufficiently close to theATM point. Using numerical simulations in the SABR, Heston and an LSV modelwith bounded local volatility, we show good performance of the asymptoticresult for Asian options with sufficiently small maturity.
我们推导了局部随机波动率(LSV)模型中亚洲期权价格的短期到期渐近线。我们同时考虑了价外(OTM)和价内(ATM)渐近线。利用大偏差理论方法,OTM 期权的渐近线被表示为一个速率函数,并将其表示为一个二维变分问题。我们通过对 ATM 点周围的利率函数进行展开,为变分问题开发了一种级数展开方法。特别是,我们推导出该变分问题在 ATM 点附近的解的对数货币性序列展开,并获得了前三项的明确结果。我们给出了一般局部随机波动率模型中亚洲期权隐含波动率的 ATM 波动率水平、倾斜度和凸性,这可以用作对行权价足够接近 ATM 点的亚洲期权进行定价的近似值。通过在 SABR、Heston 和具有有界局部波动率的 LSV 模型中进行数值模拟,我们展示了对于期限足够小的亚洲期权而言,渐近结果的良好性能。
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引用次数: 0
Valuation Model of Chinese Convertible Bonds Based on Monte Carlo Simulation 基于蒙特卡罗模拟的中国可转换债券估值模型
Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: arxiv-2409.06496
Yu Liu, Gongqiu Zhang
We address the problem of pricing Chinese convertible bonds(CCB) by MonteCarlo simulation and dynamic programming. At each exercising time, we use thestate variables of the underlying stock to regress the continuation value, andthen we apply standard backward induction to get the coefficients until themoment of time zero, thus the price of the CCB is obtained. We apply thepricing of CCBs by simulation and test the performance of an under-pricedstrategy: long the 10 most underpriced CCBs and rebalance daily. The resultshow this strategy significantly outperforms the double-low strategy which isused as a benchmark. In practice, CCB issuers usually use the downwardadjustment clause to to avoid financial distress upon put provision. Therefore,we treat the downward adjustment clause as a probabilistic event triggering theput provision. In this way, we combine the downward adjustment clause with putprovision in a simple manner.
我们通过蒙特卡洛模拟和动态程序设计来解决中国可转换债券(CCB)的定价问题。在每个行权时间,我们利用正股的状态变量对延续值进行回归,然后运用标准的反向归纳法得到直到时间零点的系数,从而得到建行的价格。我们通过模拟对建设银行进行定价,并测试定价过低策略的表现:做多 10 个定价最低的建设银行,并每天进行再平衡。结果显示,该策略的表现明显优于作为基准的双低策略。在实践中,建设银行发行人通常使用向下调整条款来避免认沽条款的财务困境。因此,我们将向下调整条款视为触发认沽拨备的概率事件。这样,我们就可以将向下调整条款与认沽拨备简单地结合起来。
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引用次数: 0
Automate Strategy Finding with LLM in Quant investment 利用定量投资 LLM 自动寻找策略
Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: arxiv-2409.06289
Zhizhuo Kou, Holam Yu, Jingshu Peng, Lei Chen
Despite significant progress in deep learning for financial trading, existingmodels often face instability and high uncertainty, hindering their practicalapplication. Leveraging advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) andmulti-agent architectures, we propose a novel framework for quantitative stockinvestment in portfolio management and alpha mining. Our framework addressesthese issues by integrating LLMs to generate diversified alphas and employing amulti-agent approach to dynamically evaluate market conditions. This paperproposes a framework where large language models (LLMs) mine alpha factors frommultimodal financial data, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of marketdynamics. The first module extracts predictive signals by integrating numericaldata, research papers, and visual charts. The second module uses ensemblelearning to construct a diverse pool of trading agents with varying riskpreferences, enhancing strategy performance through a broader market analysis.In the third module, a dynamic weight-gating mechanism selects and assignsweights to the most relevant agents based on real-time market conditions,enabling the creation of an adaptive and context-aware composite alpha formula.Extensive experiments on the Chinese stock markets demonstrate that thisframework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiplefinancial metrics. The results underscore the efficacy of combiningLLM-generated alphas with a multi-agent architecture to achieve superiortrading performance and stability. This work highlights the potential ofAI-driven approaches in enhancing quantitative investment strategies and sets anew benchmark for integrating advanced machine learning techniques in financialtrading can also be applied on diverse markets.
尽管深度学习在金融交易领域取得了重大进展,但现有模型往往面临不稳定性和高度不确定性,阻碍了其实际应用。利用大型语言模型(LLM)和多代理架构的进步,我们提出了一种用于投资组合管理和阿尔法挖掘的量化股票投资新框架。我们的框架通过整合大型语言模型来生成多样化阿尔法,并采用多代理方法来动态评估市场条件,从而解决了这些问题。本文提出了一个大语言模型(LLM)从多模态金融数据中挖掘阿尔法因子的框架,以确保对市场动态的全面了解。第一个模块通过整合数字数据、研究论文和可视化图表来提取预测信号。在第三个模块中,动态加权机制根据实时市场条件选择并分配权重给最相关的代理,从而创建一个自适应和上下文感知的综合阿尔法公式。在中国股票市场上的广泛实验表明,该框架在多个金融指标上的表现明显优于最先进的基线。这些结果凸显了将LLM生成的阿尔法公式与多代理架构相结合以实现卓越的交易性能和稳定性的功效。这项工作凸显了人工智能驱动的方法在增强量化投资策略方面的潜力,并为在金融交易中整合先进的机器学习技术树立了一个新的基准,该基准也可应用于不同的市场。
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引用次数: 0
Semi-analytical pricing of options written on SOFR futures SOFR 期货期权的半分析定价
Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: arxiv-2409.04903
Andrey Itkin, Yerkin Kitapbayev
In this paper, we propose a semi-analytical approach to pricing options onSOFR futures where the underlying SOFR follows a time-dependent CEV model. Bydefinition, these options change their type at the beginning of the referenceperiod: before this time, this is an American option written on a SOFR forwardprice as an underlying, and after this point, this is an arithmetic Asianoption with an American style exercise written on the daily SOFR rates. Wedevelop a new version of the GIT method and solve both problemssemi-analytically, obtaining the option price, the exercise boundary, and theoption Greeks. This work is intended to address the concern that the transferfrom LIBOR to SOFR has resulted in a situation in which the options of the keymoney market (i.e., futures on the reference rate) are options without anypricing model available. Therefore, the trading in options on 3M SOFR futurescurrently ends before their reference quarter starts, to eliminate the finalmetamorphosis into exotic options.
在本文中,我们提出了一种对 SOFR 期货期权进行定价的半分析方法,在这种方法中,标的 SOFR 遵循一个随时间变化的 CEV 模型。根据定义,这些期权在参考期开始时会改变其类型:在此之前,这是一个以 SOFR 远期价格为标的物的美式期权,而在此之后,这是一个以每日 SOFR 汇率为标的物的美式行使的算术亚洲期权。我们开发了一个新版本的 GIT 方法,并对这两个问题进行了半解析求解,得到了期权价格、行权边界和期权 希腊值。这项工作的目的是解决从 LIBOR 到 SOFR 的转移导致关键货币市场期权(即参考利率的期货)成为没有任何定价模型的期权这一问题。因此,3M SOFR 期货期权的交易目前在其参考季度开始之前结束,以消除最终蜕变为特殊期权的情况。
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引用次数: 0
A functional variational approach to pricing path dependent insurance policies 路径依赖保险单定价的函数变分法
Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: arxiv-2409.00780
David R. Baños, Salvador Ortiz-Latorre, Oriol Zamora Font
The main purpose of this work is the derivation of a functional partialdifferential equation (FPDE) for the calculations of equity-linked insurancepolicies, where the payment stream may depend on the whole past history of thefinancial asset. To this end, we employ variational techniques from the theoryof functional It^o calculus.
这项工作的主要目的是推导出用于计算股票挂钩保险单的函数偏微分方程(FPDE),在这种保险单中,支付流可能取决于金融资产的整个过去历史。为此,我们采用了函数微积分理论中的变分技术。
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引用次数: 0
American option pricing using generalised stochastic hybrid systems 利用广义随机混合系统进行美式期权定价
Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: arxiv-2409.07477
Evelyn Buckwar, Sascha Desmettre, Agnes Mallinger, Amira Meddah
This paper presents a novel approach to pricing American options usingpiecewise diffusion Markov processes (PDifMPs), a type of generalisedstochastic hybrid system that integrates continuous dynamics with discrete jumpprocesses. Standard models often rely on constant drift and volatilityassumptions, which limits their ability to accurately capture the complex anderratic nature of financial markets. By incorporating PDifMPs, our methodaccounts for sudden market fluctuations, providing a more realistic model ofasset price dynamics. We benchmark our approach with the Longstaff-Schwartzalgorithm, both in its original form and modified to include PDifMP asset pricetrajectories. Numerical simulations demonstrate that our PDifMP-based methodnot only provides a more accurate reflection of market behaviour but alsooffers practical advantages in terms of computational efficiency. The resultssuggest that PDifMPs can significantly improve the predictive accuracy ofAmerican options pricing by more closely aligning with the stochasticvolatility and jumps observed in real financial markets.
本文提出了一种利用片式扩散马尔可夫过程(PDifMPs)为美式期权定价的新方法,PDifMPs 是一种广义随机混合系统,它将连续动力学与离散跳跃过程整合在一起。标准模型通常依赖于恒定漂移和波动性假设,这就限制了它们准确捕捉金融市场复杂性和随机性的能力。通过纳入 PDifMPs,我们的方法考虑到了市场的突然波动,为资产价格动态提供了一个更真实的模型。我们用 Longstaff-Schwartz 算法对我们的方法进行了基准测试,既包括其原始形式,也包括为纳入 PDifMP 资产价格轨迹而进行的修改。数值模拟证明,我们基于 PDifMP 的方法不仅能更准确地反映市场行为,而且在计算效率方面也具有实际优势。结果表明,PDifMP 与实际金融市场中观察到的随机波动性和跳跃性更接近,可以显著提高美式期权定价的预测准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Risk-indifference Pricing of American-style Contingent Claims 美式或有索赔的风险差异定价
Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: arxiv-2409.00095
Rohini Kumar, Frederick "Forrest" Miller, Hussein Nasralah, Stephan Sturm
This paper studies the pricing of contingent claims of American style, usingindifference pricing by fully dynamic convex risk measures. We provide ageneral definition of risk-indifference prices for buyers and sellers incontinuous time, in a setting where buyer and seller have potentially differentinformation, and show that these definitions are consistent with no-arbitrageprinciples. Specifying to stochastic volatility models, we characterizeindifference prices via solutions of Backward Stochastic Differential Equationsreflected at Backward Stochastic Differential Equations and show that thischaracterization provides a basis for the implementation of numerical methodsusing deep learning.
本文研究了美式或有债权的定价问题,使用的是完全动态凸风险度量的差价定价法。在买方和卖方拥有潜在不同信息的情况下,我们为连续时间内的买方和卖方提供了风险差价的一般定义,并证明这些定义与无套利原则是一致的。针对随机波动模型,我们通过反映在后向随机微分方程中的后向随机微分方程解来描述差价,并证明这种描述为利用深度学习实现数值方法提供了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Learning to Optimally Stop a Diffusion Process 学会以最佳方式停止扩散过程
Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: arxiv-2408.09242
Min Dai, Yu Sun, Zuo Quan Xu, Xun Yu Zhou
We study optimal stopping for a diffusion process with unknown modelprimitives within the continuous-time reinforcement learning (RL) frameworkdeveloped by Wang et al. (2020). By penalizing its variational inequality, wetransform the stopping problem into a stochastic optimal control problem withtwo actions. We then randomize control into Bernoulli distributions and add anentropy regularizer to encourage exploration. We derive a semi-analyticaloptimal Bernoulli distribution, based on which we devise RL algorithms usingthe martingale approach established in Jia and Zhou (2022a) and prove a policyimprovement theorem. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of thealgorithms in examples of pricing finite-horizon American put options andsolving Merton's problem with transaction costs, and show that both the offlineand online algorithms achieve high accuracy in learning the value functions andcharacterizing the associated free boundaries.
我们在 Wang 等人(2020)提出的连续时间强化学习(RL)框架内研究了具有未知模型原型的扩散过程的最优停止问题。通过对其变分不等式进行惩罚,我们将停止问题转化为一个具有两个动作的随机最优控制问题。然后,我们将控制随机化为伯努利分布,并添加熵正则来鼓励探索。在此基础上,我们利用贾和周(2022a)建立的马丁格尔方法设计了 RL 算法,并证明了策略改进定理。最后,我们以有限区间美式看跌期权定价和解决有交易成本的默顿问题为例,证明了算法的有效性,并表明离线算法和在线算法在学习价值函数和描述相关自由边界方面都达到了很高的精度。
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引用次数: 0
PDEs for pricing interest rate derivatives under the new generalized Forward Market Model (FMM) 在新的广义远期市场模型(FMM)下为利率衍生品定价的 PDEs
Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: arxiv-2408.02289
J. G. López-Salas, S. Pérez-Rodríguez, C. Vázquez
In this article we derive partial differential equations (PDEs) for pricinginterest rate derivatives under the generalized Forward Market Model (FMM)recently presented by A. Lyashenko and F. Mercurio incite{lyashenkoMercurio:Mar2019} to model the dynamics of the Risk Free Rates(RFRs) that are replacing the traditional IBOR rates in the financial industry.Moreover, for the numerical solution of the proposed PDEs formulation, wedevelop some adaptations of the finite differences methods developed incite{LopezPerezVazquez:sisc} that are very suitable to treat the presence ofspatial mixed derivatives. This work is the first article in the literaturewhere PDE methods are used to value RFR derivatives. Additionally, MonteCarlo-based methods will be designed and the results are compared with thoseobtained by the numerical solution of PDEs.
在本文中,我们推导了在广义远期市场模型(FMM)下为利率衍生品定价的偏微分方程(PDEs),该模型最近由A. Lyashenko和F. Mercurio在(cite{lyashenkoMercurio:Mar2019}中提出,用于模拟金融业中正在取代传统IBOR利率的无风险利率(RFRs)的动态。此外,为了对所提出的 PDEs 公式进行数值求解,我们对《LopezPerezVazquez:sisc》中开发的有限差分方法进行了一些改编,这些方法非常适合处理空间混合导数的存在。这项工作是文献中第一篇使用 PDE 方法对 RFR 导数进行估值的文章。此外,还将设计基于 MonteCarlo 的方法,并将结果与 PDE 数值解法得出的结果进行比较。
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引用次数: 0
Numerical approximations of McKean Anticipative Backward Stochastic Differential Equations arising in Initial Margin requirements 初始保证金要求中出现的麦肯预期后向随机微分方程的数值近似值
Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: arxiv-2408.01185
A. Agarwal, S. De Marco, E. Gobet, J. G. Lopez-Salas, F. Noubiagain, A. Zhou
We introduce a new class of anticipative backward stochastic differentialequations with a dependence of McKean type on the law of the solution, that wename MKABSDE. We provide existence and uniqueness results in a generalframework with relatively general regularity assumptions on the coefficients.We show how such stochastic equations arise within the modern paradigm ofderivative pricing where a central counterparty (CCP) requires the members todeposit variation and initial margins to cover their exposure. In the case whenthe initial margin is proportional to the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) ofthe contract price, we apply our general result to define the price as asolution of a MKABSDE. We provide several linear and non-linear simplerapproximations, which we solve using different numerical (deterministic andMonte-Carlo) methods.
我们引入了一类新的预期后向随机微分方程,其解的规律与麦金类型有关,我们将其命名为 MKABSDE。我们展示了这类随机方程是如何在现代衍生品定价范式中出现的,在现代衍生品定价范式中,中央对手方(CCP)要求成员存入变动保证金和初始保证金以覆盖其风险敞口。在初始保证金与合约价格的条件风险值 (CVaR) 成比例的情况下,我们应用一般结果将价格定义为 MKABSDE 的解。我们提供了几种线性和非线性更简单的近似方法,并使用不同的数值(确定性和蒙特卡洛)方法进行求解。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - QuantFin - Pricing of Securities
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