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Cross-Currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework in the Multiple-Curve Setting 多重曲线背景下的跨货币希思-贾罗-莫顿框架
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: arxiv-2312.13057
Alessandro Gnoatto, Silvia Lavagnini
We provide a general HJM framework for forward contracts written on abstractmarket indices with arbitrary fixing and payment adjustments. We allow forindices on any asset class, featuring collateralization in arbitrary currencydenominations. The framework is pivotal for describing portfolios of interestrate products which are denominated in multiple currencies. The benchmarktransition has created significant discrepancies among the market conventionsof different currency areas: our framework simultaneously coversforward-looking risky IBOR rates, such as EURIBOR, and backward-looking ratesbased on overnight rates, such as SOFR. In view of this, we provide a thoroughstudy of cross-currency markets in the presence of collateral, where the cashflows of the contract and the margin account can be denominated in arbitrarycombinations of currencies. We finally consider cross-currency swap contractsas an example of a contract simultaneously depending on all the risk factorsthat we describe within our framework.
我们提供了一个通用的 HJM 框架,适用于以任意固定和支付调整的抽象市场指数为标的的远期合约。我们允许任何资产类别的指数以任意货币计价进行抵押。该框架对于描述以多种货币计价的利率产品组合至关重要。基准转换在不同货币地区的市场惯例之间造成了巨大差异:我们的框架同时涵盖了前瞻性风险 IBOR 利率(如 EURIBOR)和基于隔夜利率的后瞻性利率(如 SOFR)。有鉴于此,我们对存在抵押品的跨货币市场进行了深入研究,在这种情况下,合约和保证金账户的现金流可以以任意货币组合计价。最后,我们将跨货币掉期合约视为同时取决于我们在框架内描述的所有风险因素的合约的一个例子。
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引用次数: 0
Robust option pricing with volatility term structure -- An empirical study for variance options 带波动率期限结构的稳健期权定价--方差期权的实证研究
Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: arxiv-2312.09201
Alexander M. G. Cox, Annemarie M. Grass
The robust option pricing problem is to find upper and lower bounds on fairprices of financial claims using only the most minimal assumptions. Itcontrasts with the classical, model-based approach and gained prominence in thewake of the 2008 financial crisis, and can be used to understand the extent towhich a model-based price is sensitive to the underlying model assumptions.Common approaches involve pricing exotic derivatives such as variance optionsby incorporating market data through implied volatility. The existingliterature focuses largely on incorporating implied volatility informationcorresponding to the maturity of the exotic option. In this paper, we aim toexplain how intermediate data can and should be incorporated. It is natural toexpect that this additional information will improve the robust pricing bounds.To investigate this question, we consider variance options, where the bounds ofthe informed robust pricing problem are known. We proceed to conduct anempirical study uncovering a surprising finding: Contrary to common belief, theincorporation of more information does not lead to an improvement of the robustpricing bounds.
稳健期权定价问题是指只使用最基本的假设,找到金融债权公允价格的上下限。它与经典的、基于模型的方法形成对比,在 2008 年金融危机的冲击下获得了突出的地位,并可用于了解基于模型的价格对基本模型假设的敏感程度。常见的方法包括通过隐含波动率纳入市场数据来为方差期权等特殊衍生品定价。现有的文献主要集中在纳入与特殊期权到期日相对应的隐含波动率信息。在本文中,我们旨在解释如何以及应该如何纳入中间数据。为了研究这个问题,我们考虑了方差期权,因为已知的知情稳健定价问题的边界。我们继续进行实证研究,发现了一个令人惊讶的发现:与普遍的看法相反,纳入更多的信息并不会导致稳健定价边界的改善。
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引用次数: 0
Physics Informed Neural Network for Option Pricing 用于期权定价的物理信息神经网络
Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: arxiv-2312.06711
Ashish Dhiman, Yibei Hu
We apply a physics-informed deep-learning approach the PINN approach to theBlack-Scholes equation for pricing American and European options. We test ourapproach on both simulated as well as real market data, compare it toanalytical/numerical benchmarks. Our model is able to accurately capture theprice behaviour on simulation data, while also exhibiting reasonableperformance for market data. We also experiment with the architecture andlearning process of our PINN model to provide more understanding of convergenceand stability issues that impact performance.
我们将基于物理的深度学习方法,即PINN方法应用于black - scholes方程,为美国和欧洲期权定价。我们在模拟和真实市场数据上测试我们的方法,并将其与分析/数值基准进行比较。我们的模型能够准确地捕捉模拟数据上的价格行为,同时也表现出对市场数据的合理表现。我们还对我们的PINN模型的架构和学习过程进行了实验,以提供对影响性能的收敛性和稳定性问题的更多理解。
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引用次数: 0
A Hedonic Index for Collectables Arising from Modelling Diamond Prices 通过模拟钻石价格得出的收藏品对冲指数
Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: arxiv-2312.11496
Nicholas I Fisher, Alan J Lee
This article describes a case study concerned with modelling the price ofwholesale diamonds, as part of a project to develop an online diamond auctionplatform. The work was extended to exploring how to develop an index that couldbe used to track market trends of wholesale diamond prices. The approach weused is readily generalised to defining market indices for so-calledCollectables, and can provide the basis for construction of derivatives. Withthe burgeoning interest in new markets of collectables such as those generatedby the concept of a Non-Fungible Token, it is reasonable to suppose that therewill be concomitant increasing interest in developing derivatives for thesemarkets.
本文介绍了一项关于钻石批发价格建模的案例研究,这是开发在线钻石拍卖平台项目的一部分。这项工作扩展到探索如何开发一种指数,用于跟踪钻石批发价格的市场趋势。我们使用的方法很容易推广到定义所谓收藏品的市场指数,并为衍生品的构建提供基础。随着人们对新的收藏品市场(如由不可流通代币概念产生的市场)的兴趣日渐浓厚,我们有理由相信,人们对开发这些市场的衍生品的兴趣也会随之增加。
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引用次数: 0
Valuing Post-Revenue Biopharmaceutical Assets with Pfizer's Current Portfolio as a Case Study 以辉瑞公司目前的投资组合为例,评估收益后生物制药资产的价值
Pub Date : 2023-12-04 DOI: arxiv-2312.02250
Yongzhuo Chen, Yixuan Liang, Yiran Liu, Brian Hobbs, Michael Kane
This research paper addresses the critical challenge of accurately valuingpost-revenue drug assets in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors, a keyfactor influencing a wide range of strategic operations and investmentdecisions. Recognizing the importance of reliable valuations for stakeholderssuch as pharmaceutical companies, venture capitalists, and private equityfirms, this study introduces a novel model for forecasting future sales ofpost-revenue biopharmaceutical assets. The proposed model leverages historicalsales data, a resource known for its high quality and availability in companyfinancial records, to produce distributional estimates of cumulative sales forindividual assets. These estimates are instrumental in calculating the NetPresent Value of each asset, thereby facilitating more informed and strategicinvestment decisions. A practical application of this model is demonstratedthrough its implementation in analyzing Pfizer's portfolio of post-revenueassets. This precision highlights the model's potential as a valuable tool inthe financial assessment and decision-making processes within the biotech andpharmaceutical industries, offering a methodical approach to identifyinginvestment opportunities and optimizing capital allocation.
本研究论文探讨了对生物技术和制药行业收入后药物资产进行准确估值的关键挑战,这是影响一系列战略运营和投资决策的关键因素。本研究认识到可靠的估值对制药公司、风险资本家和私募股权公司等利益相关者的重要性,因此引入了一个新颖的模型来预测收益后生物制药资产的未来销售额。所提出的模型利用历史销售数据(公司财务记录中以高质量和可用性著称的资源),对单项资产的累计销售额进行分布式估算。这些估计值有助于计算每项资产的净现值,从而有助于做出更明智的战略投资决策。通过分析辉瑞公司的收益后资产组合,展示了该模型的实际应用。这种精确性凸显了该模型作为生物技术和制药行业财务评估和决策过程中的宝贵工具的潜力,为识别投资机会和优化资本配置提供了一种有条不紊的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Machine learning methods for American-style path-dependent contracts 美式路径依赖契约的机器学习方法
Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: arxiv-2311.16762
Matteo Gambara, Giulia Livieri, Andrea Pallavicini
In the present work, we introduce and compare state-of-the-art algorithms,that are now classified under the name of machine learning, to price Asian andlook-back products with early-termination features. These include randomizedfeed-forward neural networks, randomized recurrent neural networks, and a novelmethod based on signatures of the underlying price process. Additionally, weexplore potential applications on callable certificates. Furthermore, wepresent an innovative approach for calculating sensitivities, specificallyDelta and Gamma, leveraging Chebyshev interpolation techniques.
在目前的工作中,我们介绍并比较了最先进的算法,这些算法现在被归类为机器学习,用于为具有早期终止功能的亚洲和回溯产品定价。这些方法包括随机前馈神经网络、随机循环神经网络和一种基于基础价格过程特征的新方法。此外,我们还探讨了可调用证书的潜在应用。此外,我们提出了一种创新的方法来计算灵敏度,特别是delta和Gamma,利用切比雪夫插值技术。
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引用次数: 0
Fast and Stable Credit Gamma of CVA 快速稳定的CVA信用伽马值
Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: arxiv-2311.11672
Roberto Daluiso
Credit Valuation Adjustment is a balance sheet item which is nowadays subjectto active risk management by specialized traders. However, one of the mostimportant risk factors, which is the vector of default intensities of thecounterparty, affects in a non-differentiable way the most general Monte Carloestimator of the adjustment, through simulation of default times. Thus thecomputation of first and second order (pure and mixed) sensitivities involvingthese inputs cannot rely on direct path-wise differentiation, while anyapproach involving finite differences shows very high statistical noise. Wepresent ad hoc analytical estimators which overcome these issues while offeringvery low runtime overheads over the baseline computation of the priceadjustment. We also discuss the conversion of the so-obtained sensitivities tomodel parameters (e.g. default intensities) into sensitivities to market quotes(e.g. Credit Default Swap spreads).
信用估价调整是资产负债表上的一个项目,目前由专业交易者进行主动风险管理。然而,最重要的风险因素之一,即交易对手的违约强度向量,通过模拟违约时间,以不可微的方式影响最一般的蒙特卡罗调整估计量。因此,涉及这些输入的一阶和二阶(纯和混合)灵敏度的计算不能依赖于直接的路径微分,而任何涉及有限差分的方法都显示出非常高的统计噪声。我们提出了一种特殊的分析估计器,它克服了这些问题,同时在价格调整的基准计算上提供了非常低的运行时间开销。我们还讨论了将获得的敏感性模型参数(例如默认强度)转换为对市场报价的敏感性(例如:信用违约互换价差)。
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引用次数: 0
A short note on super-hedging an arbitrary number of European options with integer-valued strategies 简要介绍一下用整数策略对任意数量的欧洲期权进行超级对冲
Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: arxiv-2311.08871
Dorsaf Cherif, Meriam El Mansour, Emmanuel Lepinette
The usual theory of asset pricing in finance assumes that the financialstrategies, i.e. the quantity of risky assets to invest, are real-valued sothat they are not integer-valued in general, see the Black and Scholes modelfor instance. This is clearly contrary to what it is possible to do in the realworld. Surprisingly, it seems that there is no many contributions in thatdirection in the literature, except for a finite number of states. In thispaper, for arbitrary {Omega}, we show that, in discrete-time, it is possibleto evaluate the minimal super-hedging price when we restrict ourselves tointeger-valued strategies. To do so, we only consider terminal claims that arecontinuous piecewise affine functions of the underlying asset. We formulate adynamic programming principle that can be directly implemented on an historicaldata and which also provides the optimal integer-valued strategy. The problemwith general payoffs remains open but should be solved with the same approach.
通常的金融资产定价理论假设金融策略,即要投资的风险资产的数量,是实值的,因此它们通常不是整数值,例如,参见Black和Scholes模型。这显然与现实世界中可能做到的事情相反。令人惊讶的是,除了有限数量的状态外,在文献中似乎没有太多关于这个方向的贡献。在本文中,对于任意{Omega},我们证明了,在离散时间,当我们将自己限制在整数值策略中时,有可能评估最小超对冲价格。为此,我们只考虑作为基础资产的连续分段仿射函数的终端债权。我们提出了可以直接在历史数据上实现的动态规划原理,并提供了最优整数值策略。总体收益的问题仍然悬而未决,但应该用同样的方法来解决。
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引用次数: 0
Robust discrete-time super-hedging strategies under AIP condition and under price uncertainty AIP条件下和价格不确定性下的鲁棒离散超套期保值策略
Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: arxiv-2311.08847
Meriam El Mansour, Emmanuel Lepinette
We solve the problem of super-hedging European or Asian options fordiscrete-time financial market models where executable prices are uncertain.The risky asset prices are not described by single-valued processes butmeasurable selections of random sets that allows to consider a large variety ofmodels including bid-ask models with order books, but also models with a delayin the execution of the orders. We provide a numerical procedure to compute theinfimum price under a weak no-arbitrage condition, the so-called AIP condition,under which the prices of the non negative European options are non negative.This condition is weaker than the existence of a risk-neutral martingalemeasure but it is sufficient to numerically solve the super-hedging problem. Weillustrate our method by a numerical example.
我们解决了离散时间金融市场模型中可执行价格不确定的超对冲欧洲或亚洲期权的问题。风险资产价格不是由单值过程描述的,而是由随机集的可测量选择来描述的,这允许考虑各种各样的模型,包括带有订单簿的买卖模型,以及带有订单执行延迟的模型。我们提供了一个计算弱无套利条件下的最小价格的数值过程,即所谓的AIP条件,在这种条件下,非负欧式期权的价格是非负的。这一条件弱于风险中性边际测度的存在,但足以在数值上解决超套期保值问题。我们用一个数值例子来说明我们的方法。
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引用次数: 0
On an Optimal Stopping Problem with a Discontinuous Reward 一类具有不连续奖励的最优停止问题
Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: arxiv-2311.03538
Anne Mackay, Marie-Claude Vachon
We study an optimal stopping problem with an unbounded, time-dependent anddiscontinuous reward function. This problem is motivated by the pricing of avariable annuity (VA) contract with guaranteed minimum maturity benefit, underthe assumption that the policyholder's surrender behaviour maximizes thecontract's risk-neutral value. We consider a general fee and surrender chargefunction, and give a condition under which optimal stopping always occurs atmaturity. Using an alternative representation for the value function of theoptimization problem, we study its analytical properties and the resultingsurrender (or exercise) region. In particular, we show that the non-emptinessand the shape of the surrender region are fully characterized by the fee andthe surrender charge functions, which provides a powerful tool forunderstanding the link between fees and surrender functions and how they affectearly surrender and the optimal surrender boundary. When the fee and surrendercharge only depend on time, we develop three different representations of thevalue function; two are analogous to their American option counterpart, and oneis new to the actuarial and American option pricing literature. Our results allow for the development of new algorithms for the valuation ofvariable annuity contracts. We provide three such algorithms, based oncontinuous-time Markov chain approximations. The efficiency of these threealgorithms is studied numerically and compared to other commonly usedapproaches.
研究了一类具有无界、时变、不连续奖励函数的最优停止问题。在假设投保人的退保行为最大化了合同的风险中性价值的前提下,以保证最低到期收益的可变年金(VA)合同的定价激励了这一问题。考虑了一般收费和退让收费函数,给出了在成熟时总是发生最优停止的条件。利用优化问题的值函数的一种替代表示,我们研究了它的解析性质和由此产生的投降(或练习)区域。特别是,我们证明了非空性和投降区域的形状完全由收费和投降收费函数表征,这为理解收费和投降函数之间的联系以及它们如何有效地投降和最优投降边界提供了有力的工具。当费用和退让费仅取决于时间时,我们开发了三种不同的价值函数表示;其中两种与美国期权类似,另一种是精算和美国期权定价文献中的新概念。我们的结果允许开发新的算法来评估可变年金合同。我们提供了三个这样的算法,基于非连续时间马尔可夫链近似。对这三种算法的效率进行了数值研究,并与其他常用方法进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - QuantFin - Pricing of Securities
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