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All Inclusive Climate Policy in a Growing Economy: The Role of Human Health 经济增长中的全包气候政策:人类健康的作用
Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00910-w
Lucas Bretschger, Evgenij Komarov

Standard climate economics considers damages of climate change to utility, total factor productivity, and capital. Highlighting that air pollution and climate change affect human health and labor productivity significantly, we complement this literature by including human health in a theoretical climate economic framework. Our macroeconomic approach incorporates a separate health sector and provides closed-form analytical solutions for the main model variables. Economic growth is endogenously driven by innovations, which depend on labor availability and productivity. These aspects of the labor force are directly linked to human health, which is harmed by burning fossil fuels. We calculate growth in the decentralized equilibrium and derive optimal climate policy. Calibrating the model by taking standard parameter values we show the economic growth rate to be higher for the planner solution compared to the market outcome. For an optimal climate policy, we find that 44% of total resource stock should be extracted when considering damages to capital, but only 1% of the stock should be extracted in an “all inclusive” approach where health damages are included. The health perspective requires optimal environmental policies that are much more stringent than those normally advocated in climate economics, since harm to human health has negative effects on economic growth, which makes the overall impact of climate change very large.

标准的气候经济学考虑了气候变化对效用、全要素生产率和资本的损害。考虑到空气污染和气候变化对人类健康和劳动生产率的重大影响,我们将人类健康纳入气候经济学的理论框架,从而对上述文献进行了补充。我们的宏观经济方法包含了一个独立的健康部门,并为主要模型变量提供了闭式分析解。经济增长由创新内生驱动,而创新取决于劳动力的可用性和生产率。劳动力的这些方面与人类健康直接相关,而燃烧化石燃料会损害人类健康。我们计算了分散均衡中的增长,并推导出最优气候政策。通过采用标准参数值对模型进行校准,我们发现与市场结果相比,规划者方案的经济增长率更高。对于最优气候政策,我们发现在考虑资本损害的情况下,应提取总资源存量的 44%,但在考虑健康损害的 "全包 "方法中,只应提取存量的 1%。从健康角度看,最优环境政策需要比气候经济学通常倡导的政策更为严格,因为对人类健康的损害会对经济增长产生负面影响,这使得气候变化的总体影响非常大。
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引用次数: 0
Extended Producer Responsibility and Trade Flows in Waste: The Case of Batteries 生产者延伸责任与废物贸易流动:电池案例
Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00907-5
Marco Compagnoni, Marco Grazzi, Fabio Pieri, Chiara Tomasi

In the debate on international waste trade, the focus on resource efficiency and recycling has gradually begun to accompany the focus on negative environmental externalities. In this context, we examine the impact of extended producer responsibility (EPR) on the export of waste batteries (WB). EPR is considered as a key policy for the “marketization of waste”. WB are a hazardous waste that also contain a high concentration of critical raw materials. As such, they are of strategic importance for the recovery of critical resources, while at the same time requiring proper environmental management. Therefore, it is crucial to understand where WB are treated and how this is affected by related policies. Our results, based on difference-in-difference models in a gravity framework, show a consistent increase in WB exports after EPR implementation compared to the trend for other wastes. This result is likely to be an indirect consequence of the ability of EPR to support growth in waste collection rates, more accurate tracking of transboundary waste flows, and specialization of national waste management systems. In particular, WB exports appear to be directed to countries with more advanced waste management systems, more stringent environmental regulations, and limited endowments of the mineral resources typically contained in batteries.

在有关国际废物贸易的讨论中,对资源效率和回收利用的关注逐渐开始与对负面环境外部性的关注相伴。在此背景下,我们研究了生产者延伸责任(EPR)对废电池(WB)出口的影响。生产者延伸责任被认为是 "废物市场化 "的关键政策。废电池是一种危险废物,同时也含有高浓度的关键原材料。因此,它们对关键资源的回收具有重要的战略意义,同时也需要适当的环境管理。因此,了解可再生资源的处理地点以及相关政策对其的影响至关重要。我们基于引力框架下的差分模型得出的结果显示,与其他废物的趋势相比,在实施 EPR 后,世行出口量持续增加。这一结果很可能是 EPR 能够支持废物收集率增长、更准确地跟踪跨境废物流以及国家废物管理系统专业化的间接结果。特别是,世行的出口似乎流向了废物管理系统更先进、环境法规更严格、电池中通常含有的矿产资源有限的国家。
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引用次数: 0
The Rise of Transnational Financial Crimes and Tropical Deforestation 跨国金融犯罪和热带森林砍伐的兴起
Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00905-7
Yacouba Kassouri

This paper investigates the impact of trade-related illicit financial flows (IFFs) on tropical deforestation. To adjust for pre-exposure differences in deforestation rates between countries exposed to IFFs and their counterfactuals, this study adopts propensity score matching and doubly robust weighted regression estimators. The results suggest substantial increases in forest loss in countries exposed to large IFFs. Specifically, the treated countries exposed to IFFs experience an annual increase in forest loss of approximately 10,344.167 hectares compared to their counterfactual controls. This finding is largely driven by macro-financial instability resulting from real currency depreciation and tax revenue losses due to illicit financial outflows. The results highlight the merit of capital controls and state ownership of assets in mitigating the impact of exposure to IFFs on forest loss.

本文研究了与贸易有关的非法资金流动(IFFs)对热带森林砍伐的影响。为了调整受到 IFFs 影响的国家与其反事实国家之间暴露前毁林率的差异,本研究采用了倾向得分匹配和双重稳健加权回归估计法。研究结果表明,遭受大规模国际融资机制影响的国家的森林损失大幅增加。具体而言,与反事实对照相比,受到国际森林论坛影响的国家每年的森林损失增加了约 10,344.167 公顷。造成这一结果的主要原因是实际货币贬值和非法资金外流造成的税收损失导致宏观金融不稳定。这些结果突出表明了资本管制和国有资产所有权在减轻国际融资机制风险对森林损失的影响方面的优势。
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引用次数: 0
Right and Duty: Investment Risk Under Different Renewable Energy Support Policies 权利与义务:不同可再生能源支持政策下的投资风险
Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00909-3
Peio Alcorta, Maria Paz Espinosa, Cristina Pizarro-Irizar

Renewable energy projects are subject to risk due to the uncertainty of future electricity prices and the amount of energy produced. Public support usually consists of some form of guarantee, either on the price received per MWh supplied or the return on investment per MW installed. This support reduces the investor’s risk, which is then assumed by the regulator. However, most of these policies do not only grant the investor the right to receive a guaranteed payment but also limit its potential benefits (i.e., impose an obligation). We propose a model with analytical solutions in which, considering the randomness of the market price, as well as that of the energy production, we quantify the risk removed under different types of regulations and assign a value to both the rights and the obligations that each policy entails. Finally, we apply the model to the case of Spain, which has undergone several changes in its green energy support system in recent years. Our results indicate that in the context of low electricity prices, the obligations imposed by most of these policies are negligible compared to the rights received. By contrast, in the context of high electricity prices and increasingly competitive renewable energy sources, the assumed obligations become more notable to the point of the support policy becoming a liability. Nevertheless, a sufficiently risk-averse investor may be incentivized by a policy with negative expected regulatory costs.

由于未来电价和发电量的不确定性,可再生能源项目存在风险。公共支持通常包括某种形式的担保,可以是每兆瓦时供电的价格担保,也可以是每兆瓦安装量的投资回报担保。这种支持降低了投资者的风险,然后由监管机构承担。然而,大多数此类政策不仅赋予投资者获得担保付款的权利,而且还限制其潜在收益(即施加义务)。我们提出了一个具有分析解决方案的模型,在该模型中,考虑到市场价格和能源生产的随机性,我们量化了在不同类型监管下消除的风险,并为每种政策带来的权利和义务赋予了一个价值。最后,我们将该模型应用于西班牙的情况,西班牙近年来对其绿色能源支持系统进行了多次改革。我们的研究结果表明,在低电价的情况下,大多数政策规定的义务与获得的权利相比微不足道。相比之下,在高电价和可再生能源竞争日趋激烈的情况下,所承担的义务变得更加明显,以至于支持政策变成了一种负担。不过,预期监管成本为负值的政策可能会激励投资者充分规避风险。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Licensing in a Polluting Industry 污染行业中的外商直接投资和技术许可
Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00886-7
Jiyun Cao, Arijit Mukherjee

We consider a firm’s incentive for foreign direct investment (FDI) and international technology licensing in a polluting industry. We explain the rationale and the welfare implications of complementarity between FDI and licensing, i.e., the firm’s strategy of “FDI and licensing” (FL), which is empirically relevant but ignored in the literature. When the environmental tax cannot be committed, the firm adopts the licensing strategy if the pollution intensity is not high, and the licensing strategy may create lower consumer surplus and welfare compared to both FDI and FL. However, if the pollution intensity is high, the firm undertakes FL, which provide higher consumer surplus and welfare compared to both licensing and FDI. When the government can commit to the environmental tax, the firm always prefers FL. The host-country welfare is higher but the consumer surplus and world welfare may be lower under the committed tax policy compared to the non-committed tax policy. These results hold under Cournot competition and Stackelberg competition. We further show that FL can be the equilibrium strategy of the foreign firm if there is fixed-fee licensing instead of a two-part tariff licensing, which is considered in the main analysis.

我们考虑了企业在污染性行业中进行外国直接投资(FDI)和国际技术许可的动机。我们解释了外国直接投资与许可之间的互补性(即企业的 "外国直接投资与许可"(FL)战略)的基本原理和福利影响。当无法承诺环境税时,如果污染强度不高,企业就会采取许可战略,与 FDI 和 FL 相比,许可战略可能会创造更低的消费者剩余和福利。然而,如果污染强度较高,企业就会采取 FL 战略,与许可证战略和外国直接投资战略相比,FL 战略能提供更高的消费者剩余和福利。当政府可以承诺征收环境税时,企业总是倾向于选择 FL。与不承诺的税收政策相比,承诺的税收政策下东道国的福利更高,但消费者剩余和世界福利可能更低。这些结果在库诺竞争和斯塔克尔伯格竞争下都成立。我们进一步证明,如果存在固定收费许可,而不是主要分析中考虑的两部分关税许可,那么 FL 可以成为外国公司的均衡策略。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Asymmetric Effect of Global Climate Anomalies on Food Prices: Evidence from Local Prices 评估全球气候异常对粮食价格的不对称影响:来自当地价格的证据
Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00901-x
Lotanna E. Emediegwu

This paper uses time-varying smooth transition autoregressive model to investigate the asymmetric nature of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) —an exogenous climatic factor—with respect to the nonlinear dynamics of food prices in sub-Saharan Africa. Curating food price series from more than 1100 markets from 36 SSA countries, the study finds that ENSO (linearly or nonlinearly) affects roughly half of food prices considered, with most nonlinear models exhibiting strong asymmetric properties with shock-inflicted persistence. Moreover, in terms of the location of the burden of ENSO impact, I find a geographical and food product divide. Specifically, ENSO appears to be more efficacious on maize prices in Southern, Eastern, and some parts of Central Africa. Conversely, local rice, cassava, millet, and animal products are least affected. The policy implication of this dichotomy is that response to ENSO news should be subregion-specific rather than region-specific, depending on how the subregions absorb the shock.

本文使用时变平稳过渡自回归模型研究厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)--一种外生气候因素--对撒哈拉以南非洲地区粮食价格非线性动态的非对称性质。通过对 36 个撒哈拉以南非洲国家 1100 多个市场的粮食价格序列进行整理,研究发现厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(线性或非线性)影响了大约一半的粮食价格,大多数非线性模型表现出强烈的非对称特性,并具有冲击引起的持续性。此外,从厄尔尼诺/南方涛动影响的位置来看,我发现了地理和食品产品的差异。具体而言,厄尔尼诺/南方涛动似乎对南部非洲、东部非洲和中部非洲部分地区的玉米价格影响更大。相反,当地的大米、木薯、小米和动物产品受到的影响最小。这种二分法的政策含义是,对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动消息的反应应针对具体的次区域,而不是具体的区域,这取决于次区域如何吸收冲击。
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引用次数: 0
Green Innovation and Energy Efficiency: Moderating Effect of Institutional Quality Based on the Threshold Model 绿色创新与能源效率:基于阈值模型的机构质量调节效应
Pub Date : 2024-08-04 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00902-w
Chaoyi Chen, Mehmet Pinar, Rocío Román-Collado

Recent studies demonstrated that green innovation and environment-related technologies reduce energy intensity and improve energy efficiency, contributing to the reduction of carbon emissions. However, the existing studies employ linear estimation methods to examine the relationship between green innovation and energy intensity and do not consider the indirect implications of institutional quality for the effect of green technology on energy intensity. Institutional quality is found to be an essential driver of innovation, and countries may need to achieve at least a minimum level of institutional quality to promote green innovation and improve their energy intensity. To test this hypothesis, this paper examines the relationship between energy intensity and green innovation using a panel dataset from 72 countries between 1996 and 2017 and a panel threshold model when institutional quality is considered a threshold variable. The findings highlight that green innovation reduces the energy intensity if and only if countries surpass a certain threshold of institutional quality. Therefore, countries need to improve their institutional quality to promote green innovation and benefit from green technologies in improving their energy intensity.

最近的研究表明,绿色创新和环境相关技术降低了能源强度,提高了能源效率,有助于减少碳排放。然而,现有研究采用线性估计方法来考察绿色创新与能源强度之间的关系,并未考虑制度质量对绿色技术影响能源强度的间接影响。研究发现,制度质量是创新的基本驱动力,各国可能至少需要达到一定的制度质量水平,才能促进绿色创新,提高能源强度。为了验证这一假设,本文使用 1996 年至 2017 年 72 个国家的面板数据集,以及将制度质量视为门槛变量的面板门槛模型,研究了能源强度与绿色创新之间的关系。研究结果表明,如果且只有当国家的制度质量超过一定门槛时,绿色创新才会降低能源强度。因此,各国需要提高制度质量,以促进绿色创新,并从绿色技术中获益,从而提高能源强度。
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引用次数: 0
Tiebout Sorting and Toxic Releases 铁布特分类和有毒物质排放
Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00893-8
Dakshina G. De Silva, Anita R. Schiller, Aurélie Slechten, Leonard Wolk

Combining detailed county-to-county migration data with Toxics Release Inventory data, and fine-scale (hbox{PM}_{2.5}) concentration levels, we investigate the relationship between internal migration, income of migrant and non-migrant households and county-level differences in environmental quality. We show that households moving to “cleaner” counties are relatively “richer”—a result consistent with a sorting by income in the spirit of Tiebout (1956). An implication of this finding is that internal migration could contribute to the persistence of disparities in pollution exposure at the county-level.

结合详细的县到县移民数据、有毒物质排放清单数据以及精细的浓度水平,我们研究了国内移民、移民家庭和非移民家庭的收入与县级环境质量差异之间的关系。我们发现,迁移到 "更清洁 "县城的家庭相对更 "富有"--这一结果与 Tiebout(1956 年)精神中的收入排序一致。这一发现的含义是,国内移民可能会导致县级污染暴露差异的持续存在。
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引用次数: 0
International Cooperation and Kantian Moral Behaviour: Complements oSXDzx5`16Z RT231r Substitutes? 国际合作与康德道德行为:互补或替代?
Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00867-w
Alistair Ulph, David Ulph

Faced with a global emissions problem such as climate change, we know that if countries’ emissions decisions are made in an independent and self-interested fashion the outcome can be very far from optimal. One proposed solution is to have countries enter international environmental agreements (IEAs) whereby individual countries’ emissions decisions are taken in the interests of all the participating countries and so reflect a degree of altruism. However, if the decision to co-operate is made in a self-interested fashion the standard non-cooperative model of IEAs yields the pessimistic conclusion that the more serious the environmental problem the smaller will be the equilibrium membership of an IEA. Our paper examines the implications for emissions, IEA membership and welfare of assuming that countries make both emissions and IEA membership decisions in the alternative moral fashion of acting as imperfect Kantians as defined by Alger and Weibull (Econometrica 81:2269–2302, 2013). We show that (i) the first-best can be achieved when countries either act as Perfect Kantians or by fully cooperating; (ii) in a more imperfect setting, these two forms of moral behaviour are complementary approaches to improving welfare outcomes in the sense that the greater the weights on Kantian behaviour the larger is the equilibrium coalition; (iii) the weights on Kantian behaviour that will induce full cooperation and hence the first-best are significantly less than 1; (iv) for given Kantian weights, our model generates higher equilibrium IEA membership, lower emissions and higher welfare than in the related paper by Eichner and Pethig (International environmental agreements when countries behave morally) which, we argue, does not fully capture the benefits of membership decisions.

面对像气候变化这样的全球排放问题,我们知道,如果各国以独立和自利的方式做出排放决定,结果可能与最佳状态相去甚远。一种建议的解决方案是让各国签订国际环境协定(IEAs),根据这些协定,各国的排放决策将符合所有参与国的利益,从而在一定程度上体现利他主义。然而,如果合作的决定是以利己的方式做出的,那么国际环境协定的标准非合作模型就会得出一个悲观的结论:环境问题越严重,国际环境协定的均衡成员数就越少。我们的论文探讨了假设各国以阿尔杰和魏布尔定义的不完全康德主义(《经济计量学》,81:2269-2302, 2013 年)的另一种道德方式做出排放和国际能源机构成员决策对排放、国际能源机构成员和福利的影响。我们的研究表明:(i) 当各国以完全康德式行为或充分合作的方式行事时,可以实现第一最优;(ii) 在更不完善的环境中,这两种道德行为形式是改善福利结果的互补方法,即康德式行为的权重越大,均衡联盟就越大;(iv) 在给定康德行为权重的情况下,与 Eichner 和 Pethig 的相关论文(《国家道德行为时的国际环境协定》)相比,我们的模型产生了更高的均衡国际环境协定成员资格、更低的排放和更高的福利。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of Property Value Changes from Nearby Carbon Capture and Utilization Projects in China 中国碳捕集与利用项目附近物业价值变化估算
Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00900-y
Yingdan Mei, Jixiang Qiu, Yueming Lucy Qiu, Pengfei Liu
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引用次数: 0
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Environmental and Resource Economics
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