Pub Date : 2026-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103118
Ailun Shui, Gerard J van den Berg, Jochen O Mierau, Laura Viluma
A large body of literature demonstrates that exposure to major adverse events such as natural disasters affects physical and mental health. Less is known about health consequences of long-term exposure to smaller, recurring shocks such as mining-induced earthquakes. Leveraging data from the Dutch Lifelines Cohort Study and Biobank and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, we examine mental health effects of frequent earthquakes generated by the extraction of natural gas, which was a major source of economic revenue for the Netherlands. Long-term exposure is captured by the accumulated peak ground acceleration. We employ individual-level fixed effects models to deal with selective exposure. We find that exposure increases depression and anxiety symptoms. Our results are robust to selective migration and to varying the exposure indicator. The results support a reassessment of the societal costs of the mining of natural gas.
{"title":"The impact of mining-induced earthquakes on mental health: Evidence from the Dutch Lifelines Cohort Study and Biobank.","authors":"Ailun Shui, Gerard J van den Berg, Jochen O Mierau, Laura Viluma","doi":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103118","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A large body of literature demonstrates that exposure to major adverse events such as natural disasters affects physical and mental health. Less is known about health consequences of long-term exposure to smaller, recurring shocks such as mining-induced earthquakes. Leveraging data from the Dutch Lifelines Cohort Study and Biobank and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, we examine mental health effects of frequent earthquakes generated by the extraction of natural gas, which was a major source of economic revenue for the Netherlands. Long-term exposure is captured by the accumulated peak ground acceleration. We employ individual-level fixed effects models to deal with selective exposure. We find that exposure increases depression and anxiety symptoms. Our results are robust to selective migration and to varying the exposure indicator. The results support a reassessment of the societal costs of the mining of natural gas.</p>","PeriodicalId":50186,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Health Economics","volume":"106 ","pages":"103118"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146137990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103113
Nathan Kettlewell, Peter Siminski
Minimum supervised driving hours (MSDH) are a key component of Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) policy. GDL has been shown to reduce motor vehicle accidents, but its optimal design is far from clear. Exploiting two discrete MSDH changes in New South Wales (the largest state in Australia), we estimate causal effects of various MSDH options, providing evidence on driver safety under different regimes. Increasing MSDH from zero to 50 h lowered the risk of a motor vehicle accident in the first year of unsupervised driving by around 23%. Further increasing the mandate to 120 h had no additional benefit.
{"title":"Learner driving experience and motor vehicle accidents.","authors":"Nathan Kettlewell, Peter Siminski","doi":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103113","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Minimum supervised driving hours (MSDH) are a key component of Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) policy. GDL has been shown to reduce motor vehicle accidents, but its optimal design is far from clear. Exploiting two discrete MSDH changes in New South Wales (the largest state in Australia), we estimate causal effects of various MSDH options, providing evidence on driver safety under different regimes. Increasing MSDH from zero to 50 h lowered the risk of a motor vehicle accident in the first year of unsupervised driving by around 23%. Further increasing the mandate to 120 h had no additional benefit.</p>","PeriodicalId":50186,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Health Economics","volume":"106 ","pages":"103113"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146144636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-31DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103114
Davide Dragone, Gustav Feichtinger, Dieter Grass, Richard F Hartl, Peter M Kort, Andrea Seidl, Stefan Wrzaczek
We propose a theoretical model to study individual lifestyle choices related to calorie intake and physical activity, depending on personal fitness and body weight. The model builds on the rational eating literature and can generate a variety of behaviors that are consistent with the empirical evidence. In particular, we show that engaging in periods of a sedentary lifestyle can be a rational, utility-maximizing decision-a finding that is not present in the existing literature but is empirically widespread. Additionally, we show the possible existence of multiple equilibria and multiple indifferent lifestyles. The former justifies policy interventions to help individuals exit a self-reinforcing, but unhealthy equilibrium; the latter provides a theoretical basis for remediation plans that compensate for earlier unhealthy behaviors.
{"title":"Obesity, sedentary behavior and lifestyle: A lifecycle model of eating and physical activity.","authors":"Davide Dragone, Gustav Feichtinger, Dieter Grass, Richard F Hartl, Peter M Kort, Andrea Seidl, Stefan Wrzaczek","doi":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103114","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We propose a theoretical model to study individual lifestyle choices related to calorie intake and physical activity, depending on personal fitness and body weight. The model builds on the rational eating literature and can generate a variety of behaviors that are consistent with the empirical evidence. In particular, we show that engaging in periods of a sedentary lifestyle can be a rational, utility-maximizing decision-a finding that is not present in the existing literature but is empirically widespread. Additionally, we show the possible existence of multiple equilibria and multiple indifferent lifestyles. The former justifies policy interventions to help individuals exit a self-reinforcing, but unhealthy equilibrium; the latter provides a theoretical basis for remediation plans that compensate for earlier unhealthy behaviors.</p>","PeriodicalId":50186,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Health Economics","volume":"106 ","pages":"103114"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146120904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103117
Alex Armand, Britta Augsburg, Antonella Bancalari, Kalyan Kumar Kameshwara
{"title":"Corrigendum to \"Religious proximity and misinformation: Experimental evidence from a mobile phone-based campaign in India\" [Journal of Health Economics Volume 96, June 2024, 102883].","authors":"Alex Armand, Britta Augsburg, Antonella Bancalari, Kalyan Kumar Kameshwara","doi":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103117","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50186,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Health Economics","volume":" ","pages":"103117"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146127419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103110
Antonella Bancalari , Pedro Bernal , Pablo Celhay , Sebastian Martinez , Maria Deni Sánchez
The overutilization of costly hospital and emergency care and the underutilization of primary care is considered a key driver of wasteful health spending. We study how a shift toward community-based primary care reshapes care patterns across levels of the health system in El Salvador. Using data on outpatient consultations and hospitalizations across 254 municipalities, we exploit the staggered introduction of community health teams (CHTs) between 2010 and 2013 using an event-study design. We find that CHTs increased preventive care, reduced curative consultations for conditions amenable to effective primary care, and lowered preventable hospitalizations. We also document improved primary-care coverage for previously unattended chronic conditions. Together, these results suggest that strengthening primary care through CHTs can meaningfully improve the organization of care and bolster health system performance.
{"title":"Community health teams and health utilization in El Salvador","authors":"Antonella Bancalari , Pedro Bernal , Pablo Celhay , Sebastian Martinez , Maria Deni Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103110","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103110","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The overutilization of costly hospital and emergency care and the underutilization of primary care is considered a key driver of wasteful health spending. We study how a shift toward community-based primary care reshapes care patterns across levels of the health system in El Salvador. Using data on outpatient consultations and hospitalizations across 254 municipalities, we exploit the staggered introduction of community health teams (CHTs) between 2010 and 2013 using an event-study design. We find that CHTs increased preventive care, reduced curative consultations for conditions amenable to effective primary care, and lowered preventable hospitalizations. We also document improved primary-care coverage for previously unattended chronic conditions. Together, these results suggest that strengthening primary care through CHTs can meaningfully improve the organization of care and bolster health system performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50186,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Health Economics","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 103110"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103115
Danea Horn, Abby Alpert, Mark Duggan, Mireille Jacobson
Immunotherapy is a breakthrough innovation in cancer care, but it is also among the most expensive treatments, with costs exceeding $150,000 per patient. We study the introduction of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), the most widely used class of immunotherapy drugs. In 2022, ICIs accounted for 44% of the $17.5 billion Medicare Part B cancer drug spending. We focus on metastatic melanoma, the first approved indication for ICIs. While overall cancer mortality rates declined since the 1990s, melanoma mortality rates increased through the early 2010s. Following the first ICI approvals in 2011 and 2014, melanoma mortality declined sharply. Using traditional Medicare claims, we estimate the impact of the introduction of ICIs on healthcare utilization, costs, and 1-year survival for patients with metastatic melanoma, relative to metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC), where ICIs were not approved until 2017. Variation in approval timing allows us to isolate the effect of ICIs from broader cancer care trends. We find that ICIs reduced 1-year mortality by 6.2%. Since about 1 in 5 metastatic melanoma patients received ICIs, this implies a 28.0% reduction among treated patients. The introduction of ICIs also reduced chemotherapy and radiation use, but increased Medicare spending by 59.3% or about 260% among ICI-treated patients. Accounting for life expectancy gains beyond one year, the benefits of ICIs for melanoma patients appear comparable, or potentially even greater, than the substantial added Medicare costs. Nonetheless, ICI use remains relatively low given large survival benefits and few alternative treatments, suggesting that costs and other barriers limit patient access.
{"title":"The impact of immunotherapy on reductions in cancer mortality: Evidence from Medicare.","authors":"Danea Horn, Abby Alpert, Mark Duggan, Mireille Jacobson","doi":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103115","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Immunotherapy is a breakthrough innovation in cancer care, but it is also among the most expensive treatments, with costs exceeding $150,000 per patient. We study the introduction of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), the most widely used class of immunotherapy drugs. In 2022, ICIs accounted for 44% of the $17.5 billion Medicare Part B cancer drug spending. We focus on metastatic melanoma, the first approved indication for ICIs. While overall cancer mortality rates declined since the 1990s, melanoma mortality rates increased through the early 2010s. Following the first ICI approvals in 2011 and 2014, melanoma mortality declined sharply. Using traditional Medicare claims, we estimate the impact of the introduction of ICIs on healthcare utilization, costs, and 1-year survival for patients with metastatic melanoma, relative to metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC), where ICIs were not approved until 2017. Variation in approval timing allows us to isolate the effect of ICIs from broader cancer care trends. We find that ICIs reduced 1-year mortality by 6.2%. Since about 1 in 5 metastatic melanoma patients received ICIs, this implies a 28.0% reduction among treated patients. The introduction of ICIs also reduced chemotherapy and radiation use, but increased Medicare spending by 59.3% or about 260% among ICI-treated patients. Accounting for life expectancy gains beyond one year, the benefits of ICIs for melanoma patients appear comparable, or potentially even greater, than the substantial added Medicare costs. Nonetheless, ICI use remains relatively low given large survival benefits and few alternative treatments, suggesting that costs and other barriers limit patient access.</p>","PeriodicalId":50186,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Health Economics","volume":"106 ","pages":"103115"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146114750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103111
Marc Anderes
This paper explores the effect of increased competition on pharmacies induced by a regime change in two Swiss cities allowing physicians to self-dispense drugs. By merging detailed sales and survey data at the pharmacy level, a difference-in-differences estimation shows a significant and permanent loss of market share in prescribed drug revenue and profits. The decline is driven by drugs used for acute illnesses and is less pronounced for larger pharmacies. While generic drug sales decrease significantly, the more expensive brand-name drugs remain largely unaffected. I find evidence that pharmacies respond to increased competition by diversifying toward health services. Adding administrative physician data shows that the reform caused approximately CHF 19.5M in additional drug costs per year. My results demonstrate that more competition can result in higher drug costs for society.
{"title":"Reform-induced competition: Evaluating the impact on Swiss pharmacies and total drug costs","authors":"Marc Anderes","doi":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103111","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2026.103111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the effect of increased competition on pharmacies induced by a regime change in two Swiss cities allowing physicians to self-dispense drugs. By merging detailed sales and survey data at the pharmacy level, a difference-in-differences estimation shows a significant and permanent loss of market share in prescribed drug revenue and profits. The decline is driven by drugs used for acute illnesses and is less pronounced for larger pharmacies. While generic drug sales decrease significantly, the more expensive brand-name drugs remain largely unaffected. I find evidence that pharmacies respond to increased competition by diversifying toward health services. Adding administrative physician data shows that the reform caused approximately CHF 19.5M in additional drug costs per year. My results demonstrate that more competition can result in higher drug costs for society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50186,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Health Economics","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 103111"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103101
Eilidh Geddes , Nicole Holz
Over a third of women in the United States experience intimate partner violence (IPV); existing research demonstrates that household finances are one important driver of such violence. We study the effects of rent control on IPV to develop understanding of the financial causes of IPV. Rent control may lessen financial stressors within a relationship and decrease strain that leads to violence. Conversely, it may make leaving the relationship more costly, shifting the bargaining power in the relationship and leading to more violence. We leverage the 1994 expansion of rent control in San Francisco as a natural experiment to study this question. This expansion created variation across ZIP codes in the number of rental units that were newly rent controlled. We exploit this variation in a continuous difference-in-difference design. We estimate an elasticity of -0.08 between the number of newly rent controlled units and assaults on women resulting in hospitalization. This effect translates to a nearly 10% decrease in assaults on women for the average ZIP code. This relationship is not explained by changes in neighborhood composition or overall crime, consistent with the effects being driven by individual level changes in IPV.
{"title":"Housing affordability and domestic violence: The case of San Francisco’s rent control policies","authors":"Eilidh Geddes , Nicole Holz","doi":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over a third of women in the United States experience intimate partner violence (IPV); existing research demonstrates that household finances are one important driver of such violence. We study the effects of rent control on IPV to develop understanding of the financial causes of IPV. Rent control may lessen financial stressors within a relationship and decrease strain that leads to violence. Conversely, it may make leaving the relationship more costly, shifting the bargaining power in the relationship and leading to more violence. We leverage the 1994 expansion of rent control in San Francisco as a natural experiment to study this question. This expansion created variation across ZIP codes in the number of rental units that were newly rent controlled. We exploit this variation in a continuous difference-in-difference design. We estimate an elasticity of -0.08 between the number of newly rent controlled units and assaults on women resulting in hospitalization. This effect translates to a nearly 10% decrease in assaults on women for the average ZIP code. This relationship is not explained by changes in neighborhood composition or overall crime, consistent with the effects being driven by individual level changes in IPV.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50186,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Health Economics","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 103101"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103099
Stefan Sliwa Ruiz , Malte Becker , Thomas Hone , Rudi Rocha
This paper studies the effects of a large-scale exit of doctors on population health outcomes, health production inputs, outputs, and health system adaptation in Brazil. Identification exploits the exogenous timing of the Cuban exit from municipalities that relied more versus less on Cuban doctors within the More Doctors Program. We find persistent reductions in the care of chronic diseases, while service utilization for conditions requiring immediate care, such as maternal-related services and infections, quickly recovered. Reductions in utilization did not translate into changes in health outcomes. Supply-side response and demand diversion helped mitigate major adverse repercussions for population health at the market level.
{"title":"What happens to population health when the doctors leave? Evidence from the exit of Cuban doctors in Brazil","authors":"Stefan Sliwa Ruiz , Malte Becker , Thomas Hone , Rudi Rocha","doi":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103099","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103099","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the effects of a large-scale exit of doctors on population health outcomes, health production inputs, outputs, and health system adaptation in Brazil. Identification exploits the exogenous timing of the Cuban exit from municipalities that relied more <em>versus</em> less on Cuban doctors within the More Doctors Program. We find persistent reductions in the care of chronic diseases, while service utilization for conditions requiring immediate care, such as maternal-related services and infections, quickly recovered. Reductions in utilization did not translate into changes in health outcomes. Supply-side response and demand diversion helped mitigate major adverse repercussions for population health at the market level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50186,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Health Economics","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 103099"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145915101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-03DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103098
Pedro Carneiro , Lucy Kraftman , Imran Rasul , Francesca Salvati , Molly Scott
There has been a sustained rise in cash transfer programs to the poor, and burgeoning interest in interventions promoting early childhood development. We draw together these trends to study whether open enrolment interventions targeting cash transfers to pregnant mothers unintentionally induce those not pregnant to accelerate birth timing in order to start receiving the cash. Our study context is rural Northern Nigeria, where households have high demand for liquidity because they are reliant on volatile earnings from agriculture, are subject to frequent natural and man-made aggregate shocks, and reside in communities with imperfect credit markets. Our evidence comes from an evaluation of an intervention providing high-valued unconditional cash transfers to pregnant mothers, with four years of open enrolment. We examine how this impacts pregnancy timing among 1700 women not pregnant at baseline. We document relatively weak distortionary impacts on pregnancy timing over the four year period of open enrolment. The reasons are women retain full control over the use of cash transfers, they have productive investment opportunities in their own businesses, and they choose to invest in those rather than transfer cash to husbands. This constellation of factors allows women to internalize the marginal benefits and costs of accelerating birth timing, and place a brake on the incentives households otherwise have to accelerate birth timing. On external validity, we draw together 45 DHS surveys to classify countries into those more or less likely to see distortionary effects on birth timing from open enrolment interventions targeting cash transfers to pregnant mothers.
{"title":"Accelerating birth timing to access cash transfers? Evidence from households in extreme poverty","authors":"Pedro Carneiro , Lucy Kraftman , Imran Rasul , Francesca Salvati , Molly Scott","doi":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103098","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There has been a sustained rise in cash transfer programs to the poor, and burgeoning interest in interventions promoting early childhood development. We draw together these trends to study whether open enrolment interventions targeting cash transfers to pregnant mothers unintentionally induce those not pregnant to accelerate birth timing in order to start receiving the cash. Our study context is rural Northern Nigeria, where households have high demand for liquidity because they are reliant on volatile earnings from agriculture, are subject to frequent natural and man-made aggregate shocks, and reside in communities with imperfect credit markets. Our evidence comes from an evaluation of an intervention providing high-valued unconditional cash transfers to pregnant mothers, with four years of open enrolment. We examine how this impacts pregnancy timing among 1700 women not pregnant at baseline. We document relatively weak distortionary impacts on pregnancy timing over the four year period of open enrolment. The reasons are women retain full control over the use of cash transfers, they have productive investment opportunities in their own businesses, and they choose to invest in those rather than transfer cash to husbands. This constellation of factors allows women to internalize the marginal benefits and costs of accelerating birth timing, and place a brake on the incentives households otherwise have to accelerate birth timing. On external validity, we draw together 45 DHS surveys to classify countries into those more or less likely to see distortionary effects on birth timing from open enrolment interventions targeting cash transfers to pregnant mothers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50186,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Health Economics","volume":"106 ","pages":"Article 103098"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145967767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}