Journal of Applied Probability最新文献

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Parameter estimation and assessment of bias in genetic evaluation of carcass traits in Hanwoo cattle using real and simulated data. 使用真实和模拟数据对汉和牛胴体性状遗传评估中的参数进行估计和偏差评估。

IF 2.3 4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of Applied Probability

Pub Date : 2023-11-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.5187/jast.2023.e36

Mohammed Bedhane, Julius van der Werf, Sara de Las Heras-Saldana, Leland Ackerson, Dajeong Lim, Byoungho Park, Mi Na Park, Seunghee Roh, Samuel Clark

Most carcass and meat quality traits are moderate to highly heritable, indicating that they can be improved through selection. Genetic evaluation for these types of traits is performed using performance data obtained from commercial and progeny testing evaluation. The performance data from commercial farms are available in large volume, however, some drawbacks have been observed. The drawback of the commercial data is mainly due to sorting of animals based on live weight prior to slaughter, and this could lead to bias in the genetic evaluation of later measured traits such as carcass traits. The current study has two components to address the drawback of the commercial data. The first component of the study aimed to estimate genetic parameters for carcass and meat quality traits in Korean Hanwoo cattle using a large sample size of industry-based carcass performance records (n = 469,002). The second component of the study aimed to describe the impact of sorting animals into different contemporary groups based on an early measured trait and then examine the effect on the genetic evaluation of subsequently measured traits. To demonstrate our objectives, we used real performance data to estimate genetic parameters and simulated data was used to assess the bias in genetic evaluation. The results of our first study showed that commercial data obtained from slaughterhouses is a potential source of carcass performance data and useful for genetic evaluation of carcass traits to improve beef cattle performance. However, we observed some harvesting effect which leads to bias in genetic evaluation of carcass traits. This is mainly due to the selection of animal based on their body weight before arrival to slaughterhouse. Overall, the non-random allocation of animals into a contemporary group leads to a biased estimated breeding value in genetic evaluation, the severity of which increases when the evaluation traits are highly correlated.

大多数胴体和肉质性状都具有中度到高度遗传性，这表明它们可以通过选择得到改善。这些类型性状的遗传评估是利用从商业和后代测试评估中获得的性能数据进行的。来自商业养殖场的性能数据数量庞大，但也存在一些缺点。商业数据的缺点主要是在屠宰前根据活重对动物进行分类，这可能会导致后期测量性状（如胴体性状）的遗传评估出现偏差。目前的研究包括两个部分，以解决商业数据的缺点。研究的第一部分旨在利用基于行业的胴体性能记录的大样本量（n = 469 002）估算韩国韩宇牛胴体和肉质性状的遗传参数。研究的第二部分旨在描述根据早期测定的性状将动物分为不同当代组别所产生的影响，然后研究其对后续测定性状遗传评估的影响。为了证明我们的目标，我们使用真实的性能数据来估算遗传参数，并使用模拟数据来评估遗传评估的偏差。第一项研究结果表明，从屠宰场获得的商业数据是胴体性能数据的潜在来源，可用于胴体性状的遗传评估，以提高肉牛的性能。然而，我们观察到一些收获效应会导致胴体性状遗传评估出现偏差。这主要是由于在到达屠宰场之前，根据动物的体重对其进行了选择。总体而言，将动物非随机分配到当代组会导致遗传评估中的育种值估计出现偏差，当评估性状高度相关时，偏差的严重程度会增加。

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引用次数: 0

Tessellation-valued processes that are generated by cell division 由细胞分裂产生的有镶嵌价值的过程

4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of Applied Probability

Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2023.66

Servet Martínez, Werner Nagel

Abstract Processes of random tessellations of the Euclidean space $mathbb{R}^d$ , $dgeq 1$ , are considered that are generated by subsequent division of their cells. Such processes are characterized by the laws of the life times of the cells until their division and by the laws for the random hyperplanes that divide the cells at the end of their life times. The STIT (STable with respect to ITerations) tessellation processes are a reference model. In the present paper a generalization concerning the life time distributions is introduced, a sufficient condition for the existence of such cell division tessellation processes is provided, and a construction is described. In particular, for the case that the random dividing hyperplanes have a Mondrian distribution—which means that all cells of the tessellations are cuboids—it is shown that the intrinsic volumes, except the Euler characteristic, can be used as the parameter for the exponential life time distribution of the cells.

考虑欧几里得空间$mathbb{R}^d$, $dgeq 1$的随机镶嵌过程，这些过程是由其细胞的后续分裂产生的。这些过程的特征是细胞分裂前的生命周期规律，以及细胞在生命周期结束时的随机超平面分裂规律。STIT(相对于迭代来说是稳定的)镶嵌过程是一个参考模型。本文介绍了寿命时间分布的概化，给出了这种细胞分裂镶嵌过程存在的充分条件，并描述了一个构造。特别地，对于随机划分的超平面具有蒙德里安分布的情况——这意味着所有镶嵌的细胞都是长方体——表明，除欧拉特征外，内在体积可以用作细胞的指数寿命分布的参数。

引用次数: 2

Trajectory fitting estimation for reflected stochastic linear differential equations of a large signal 大信号反射随机线性微分方程的轨迹拟合估计

4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of Applied Probability

Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2023.78

Xuekang Zhang, Huisheng Shu

Abstract In this paper we study the drift parameter estimation for reflected stochastic linear differential equations of a large signal. We discuss the consistency and asymptotic distributions of trajectory fitting estimator (TFE).

摘要研究了大信号反射随机线性微分方程的漂移参数估计问题。讨论了轨迹拟合估计量(TFE)的一致性和渐近分布。

引用次数: 0

A large-deviation principle for birth–death processes with a linear rate of downward jumps 具有线性向下跳跃速率的生-死过程的大偏差原理

4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of Applied Probability

Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2023.75

Artem Logachov, Yuri Suhov, Nikita Vvedenskaya, Anatoly Yambartsev

Abstract Birth–death processes form a natural class where ideas and results on large deviations can be tested. We derive a large-deviation principle under an assumption that the rate of jump down (death) grows asymptotically linearly with the population size, while the rate of jump up (birth) grows sublinearly. We establish a large-deviation principle under various forms of scaling of the underlying process and the corresponding normalization of the logarithm of the large-deviation probabilities. The results show interesting features of dependence of the rate functional upon the parameters of the process and the forms of scaling and normalization.

从出生到死亡的过程形成了一个自然的类，在这个类中，可以对大偏差的想法和结果进行测试。在种群规模随死亡率渐近线性增长，而种群规模随出生率次线性增长的假设下，导出了一个大偏差原理。我们建立了大偏差原理下的各种形式的标度的基础过程和相应的大偏差概率的对数归一化。结果显示了速率泛函对过程参数的依赖性以及标度和归一化形式的有趣特征。

引用次数: 1

On a time-changed variant of the generalized counting process 广义计数过程的时变变体

4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of Applied Probability

Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2023.70

M. Khandakar, K. K. Kataria

Abstract In this paper, we time-change the generalized counting process (GCP) by an independent inverse mixed stable subordinator to obtain a fractional version of the GCP. We call it the mixed fractional counting process (MFCP). The system of fractional differential equations that governs its state probabilities is obtained using the Z transform method. Its one-dimensional distribution, mean, variance, covariance, probability generating function, and factorial moments are obtained. It is shown that the MFCP exhibits the long-range dependence property whereas its increment process has the short-range dependence property. As an application we consider a risk process in which the claims are modelled using the MFCP. For this risk process, we obtain an asymptotic behaviour of its finite-time ruin probability when the claim sizes are subexponentially distributed and the initial capital is arbitrarily large. Later, we discuss some distributional properties of a compound version of the GCP.

摘要本文利用一个独立的逆混合稳定从属子对广义计数过程(GCP)进行时变，得到了GCP的分数型。我们称之为混合分数计数过程(MFCP)。用Z变换方法得到了控制其状态概率的分数阶微分方程组。得到了其一维分布、均值、方差、协方差、概率生成函数和阶乘矩。结果表明，MFCP具有长程依赖特性，而其增量过程具有短程依赖特性。作为一个应用，我们考虑一个风险过程，其中索赔是使用MFCP建模的。对于该风险过程，我们得到了其有限时间破产概率在索赔规模为亚指数分布且初始资本为任意大时的渐近行为。随后，我们讨论了复合GCP的一些分布性质。

引用次数: 0

Boolean percolation on digraphs and random exchange processes 有向图和随机交换过程上的布尔渗透

4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of Applied Probability

Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2023.76

Georg Braun

Abstract We study in a general graph-theoretic formulation a long-range percolation model introduced by Lamperti [27]. For various underlying digraphs, we discuss connections between this model and random exchange processes. We clarify, for all $n in mathbb{N}$ , under which conditions the lattices $mathbb{N}_0^n$ and $mathbb{Z}^n$ are essentially covered in this model. Moreover, for all $n geq 2$ , we establish that it is impossible to cover the directed n -ary tree in our model.

摘要本文研究了Lamperti[27]引入的远程渗流模型的一般图论公式。对于各种底层有向图，我们讨论了该模型与随机交换过程之间的联系。我们澄清，对于所有$n in mathbb{N}$，在哪些条件下，网格$mathbb{N}_0^n$和$mathbb{Z}^n$基本上覆盖在这个模型中。此外，对于所有$n geq 2$，我们确定在我们的模型中不可能覆盖有向n元树。

引用次数: 0

The unified extropy and its versions in classical and Dempster–Shafer theories 统一外向性及其在经典理论和邓普斯特-谢弗理论中的表现

4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of Applied Probability

Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2023.68

Francesco Buono, Yong Deng, Maria Longobardi

Abstract Measures of uncertainty are a topic of considerable and growing interest. Recently, the introduction of extropy as a measure of uncertainty, dual to Shannon entropy, has opened up interest in new aspects of the subject. Since there are many versions of entropy, a unified formulation has been introduced to work with all of them in an easy way. Here we consider the possibility of defining a unified formulation for extropy by introducing a measure depending on two parameters. For particular choices of parameters, this measure provides the well-known formulations of extropy. Moreover, the unified formulation of extropy is also analyzed in the context of the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence, and an application to classification problems is given.

不确定性的度量是一个备受关注的话题。最近，引入外向性作为一种测量不确定性的方法，与香农熵对偶，引起了人们对该学科新方面的兴趣。由于熵有很多版本，因此引入了一个统一的公式，以便以一种简单的方式处理所有版本。在这里，我们考虑通过引入依赖于两个参数的度量来定义熵的统一公式的可能性。对于特定的参数选择，这种方法提供了众所周知的外部性公式。此外，还在Dempster-Shafer证据理论的背景下分析了熵的统一表述，并给出了在分类问题中的应用。

引用次数: 0

Aging notions, stochastic orders, and expected utilities 老化概念、随机顺序和预期效用

4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of Applied Probability

Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2023.71

Jianping Yang, Weiwei Zhuang, Taizhong Hu

Abstract There are some connections between aging notions, stochastic orders, and expected utilities. It is known that the DRHR (decreasing reversed hazard rate) aging notion can be characterized via the comparative statics result of risk aversion, and that the location-independent riskier order preserves monotonicity between risk premium and the Arrow–Pratt measure of risk aversion, and that the dispersive order preserves this monotonicity for the larger class of increasing utilities. Here, the aging notions ILR (increasing likelihood ratio), IFR (increasing failure rate), IGLR (increasing generalized likelihood ratio), and IGFR (increasing generalized failure rate) are characterized in terms of expected utilities. Based on these observations, we recover the closure properties of ILR, IFR, and DRHR under convolution, and of IGLR and IGFR under product, and investigate the closure properties of the dispersive order, location-independent riskier order, excess wealth order, the total time on test transform order under convolution, and the star order under product. We have some new findings.

老化概念、随机顺序和期望效用之间存在一些联系。已知DRHR(递减逆向风险率)老化概念可以通过风险厌恶的比较静态结果来表征，并且与位置无关的风险顺序保持风险溢价和风险厌恶的Arrow-Pratt度量之间的单调性，并且对于更大类别的增加效用，分散顺序保持这种单调性。在这里，老化概念ILR(增加似然比)、IFR(增加故障率)、IGLR(增加广义似然比)和IGFR(增加广义故障率)是根据预期效用来表征的。在此基础上，我们恢复了卷积下ILR、IFR和DRHR以及乘积下IGLR和IGFR的闭包性质，并研究了卷积下色散阶、位置无关风险阶、过剩财富阶、测试变换阶总时间和乘积下星形阶的闭包性质。我们有一些新的发现。

引用次数: 0

Resolving an old problem on the preservation of the IFR property under the formation of -out-of- systems with discrete distributions 解决了离散分布的非系统形成时IFR性质的保存问题

4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of Applied Probability

Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2023.63

Mahdi Alimohammadi, Jorge Navarro

Abstract More than half a century ago, it was proved that the increasing failure rate (IFR) property is preserved under the formation of k -out-of- n systems (order statistics) when the lifetimes of the components are independent and have a common absolutely continuous distribution function. However, this property has not yet been proved in the discrete case. Here we give a proof based on the log-concavity property of the function $f({{mathrm{e}}}^x)$ . Furthermore, we extend this property to general distribution functions and general coherent systems under some conditions.

半个多世纪以前，人们证明了在k -out- n系统(阶统计量)的形成下，当各部件的寿命是独立的且具有共同的绝对连续分布函数时，故障率(IFR)的递增性质是保持的。然而，这个性质还没有在离散情况下得到证明。这里我们基于函数$f({{ mathm {e}}}^x)$的对数凹性给出一个证明。进一步，在一定条件下，将这一性质推广到一般分布函数和一般相干系统。

引用次数: 0

Central limit theorem in complete feedback games 完全反馈对策中的中心极限定理

4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Journal of Applied Probability

Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1017/jpr.2023.64

Andrea Ottolini, Raghavendra Tripathi

Abstract Consider a well-shuffled deck of cards of n different types where each type occurs m times. In a complete feedback game, a player is asked to guess the top card from the deck. After each guess, the top card is revealed to the player and is removed from the deck. The total number of correct guesses in a complete feedback game has attracted significant interest in the past few decades. Under different regimes of m , n , the expected number of correct guesses, under the greedy (optimal) strategy, has been obtained by various authors, while there are not many results available about the fluctuations. In this paper we establish a central limit theorem with Berry–Esseen bounds when m is fixed and n is large. Our results extend to the case of decks where different types may have different multiplicity, under suitable assumptions.

考虑一副洗牌，有n种不同类型的牌，每种类型出现m次。在一个完整的反馈游戏中，玩家被要求从牌堆中猜出最上面的一张牌。每次猜中后，最上面的牌就会显示给玩家，并从牌组中移除。在过去的几十年里，在一个完整的反馈游戏中正确猜测的总数引起了人们极大的兴趣。在m, n的不同状态下，贪婪(最优)策略下的期望正确猜测数已经被许多作者得到，而关于波动的结果并不多。本文建立了m固定且n较大时具有Berry-Esseen界的中心极限定理。我们的结果推广到甲板的情况下，不同类型可能有不同的多重性，在适当的假设。

引用次数: 2

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