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A Regression Model for Dependent Gap Times 相关间隔时间的回归模型
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2006-01-01 DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1005
R. Strawderman
A natural choice of time scale for analyzing recurrent event data is the ``gap" (or soujourn) time between successive events. In many situations it is reasonable to assume correlation exists between the successive events experienced by a given subject. This paper looks at the problem of extending the accelerated failure time (AFT) model to the case of dependent recurrent event data via intensity modeling. Specifically, the accelerated gap times model of Strawderman (2005), a semiparametric intensity model for independent gap time data, is extended to the case of multiplicative gamma frailty. As argued in Aalen & Husebye (1991), incorporating frailty captures the heterogeneity between subjects and the ``hazard" portion of the intensity model captures gap time variation within a subject. Estimators are motivated using semiparametric efficiency theory and lead to useful generalizations of the rank statistics considered in Strawderman (2005). Several interesting distinctions arise in comparison to the Cox-Andersen-Gill frailty model (e.g., Nielsen et al, 1992; Klein, 1992). The proposed methodology is illustrated by simulation and data analysis.
分析重复事件数据的时间尺度的自然选择是连续事件之间的“间隙”(或逗留)时间。在许多情况下,假设给定主体所经历的连续事件之间存在相关性是合理的。本文研究了通过强度建模将加速失效时间(AFT)模型扩展到相关循环事件数据的问题。具体而言,Strawderman(2005)的加速间隙时间模型(独立间隙时间数据的半参数强度模型)被扩展到乘法伽马脆弱的情况。正如Aalen & Husebye(1991)所指出的那样,纳入脆弱性捕获了受试者之间的异质性,而强度模型的“危险”部分捕获了受试者内部的间隙时间变化。估计器使用半参数效率理论进行激励,并导致了Strawderman(2005)中考虑的秩统计的有用推广。与Cox-Andersen-Gill脆弱性模型相比,出现了几个有趣的区别(例如,Nielsen et al, 1992;克莱恩,1992)。通过仿真和数据分析说明了所提出的方法。
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引用次数: 2
History-Adjusted Marginal Structural Models and Statically-Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimens 历史调整的边际结构模型和静态最优动态治疗方案
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2005-11-22 DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1003
M. J. van der Laan, M. Petersen, M. Joffe
Marginal structural models (MSM) provide a powerful tool for estimating the causal effect of a treatment. These models, introduced by Robins, model the marginal distributions of treatment-specific counterfactual outcomes, possibly conditional on a subset of the baseline covariates. Marginal structural models are particularly useful in the context of longitudinal data structures, in which each subject's treatment and covariate history are measured over time, and an outcome is recorded at a final time point. However, the utility of these models for some applications has been limited by their inability to incorporate modification of the causal effect of treatment by time-varying covariates. Particularly in the context of clinical decision making, such time-varying effect modifiers are often of considerable or even primary interest, as they are used in practice to guide treatment decisions for an individual. In this article we propose a generalization of marginal structural models, which we call history-adjusted marginal structural models (HA-MSM). These models allow estimation of adjusted causal effects of treatment, given the observed past, and are therefore more suitable for making treatment decisions at the individual level and for identification of time-dependent effect modifiers. Specifically, a HA-MSM models the conditional distribution of treatment-specific counterfactual outcomes, conditional on the whole or a subset of the observed past up till a time-point, simultaneously for all time-points. Double robust inverse probability of treatment weighted estimators have been developed and studied in detail for standard MSM. We extend these results by proposing a class of double robust inverse probability of treatment weighted estimators for the unknown parameters of the HA-MSM. In addition, we show that HA-MSM provide a natural approach to identifying the dynamic treatment regimen which follows, at each time-point, the history-adjusted (up till the most recent time point) optimal static treatment regimen. We illustrate our results using an example drawn from the treatment of HIV infection.
边际结构模型(MSM)为估计治疗的因果效应提供了一个强有力的工具。这些模型,由罗宾斯介绍,模拟治疗特异性反事实结果的边际分布,可能以基线协变量的一个子集为条件。边际结构模型在纵向数据结构的背景下特别有用,在纵向数据结构中,每个受试者的治疗和协变量历史随时间测量,并在最终时间点记录结果。然而,这些模型在某些应用中的效用受到限制,因为它们无法通过时变协变量纳入治疗因果效应的修正。特别是在临床决策的背景下,这种时变效应调节剂通常是相当重要的,甚至是主要的兴趣,因为它们在实践中用于指导个人的治疗决策。在本文中,我们提出了一种边际结构模型,我们称之为历史调整边际结构模型(HA-MSM)。根据观察到的过去,这些模型允许对治疗的调整因果效应进行估计,因此更适合于在个人水平上做出治疗决策,并用于识别依赖于时间的效果修饰因子。具体地说,HA-MSM模拟了治疗特异性反事实结果的条件分布,条件取决于观察到的整个或子集的过去,直到一个时间点,同时适用于所有时间点。对标准MSM的双鲁棒逆概率处理加权估计进行了详细的研究。我们通过对HA-MSM的未知参数提出一类双鲁棒逆概率处理加权估计来推广这些结果。此外,我们表明HA-MSM提供了一种自然的方法来确定动态治疗方案,该方案遵循每个时间点的历史调整(直到最近的时间点)最佳静态治疗方案。我们用一个治疗HIV感染的例子来说明我们的结果。
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引用次数: 82
Score Statistics for Current Status Data: Comparisons with Likelihood Ratio and Wald Statistics 当前状态数据的得分统计:与似然比和沃尔德统计的比较
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2005-08-04 DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1001
M. Banerjee, J. Wellner
In this paper we introduce three natural ``score statistics" for testing the hypothesis that F(t_0)takes on a fixed value in the context of nonparametric inference with current status data. These three new test statistics have natural interpretations in terms of certain (weighted) L_2 distances, and are also connected to natural ``one-sided" scores. We compare these new test statistics with the analogue of the classical Wald statistic and the likelihood ratio statistic introduced in Banerjee and Wellner (2001) for the same testing problem. Under classical ``regular" statistical problems the likelihood ratio, score, and Wald statistics all have the same chi-squared limiting distribution under the null hypothesis. In sharp contrast, in this non-regular problem all three statistics have different limiting distributions under the null hypothesis. Thus we begin by establishing the limit distribution theory of the statistics under the null hypothesis, and discuss calculation of the relevant critical points for the test statistics. Once the null distribution theory is known, the immediate question becomes that of power. We establish the limiting behavior of the three types of statistics under local alternatives. We have also compared the power of these five different statistics via a limited Monte-Carlo study. Our conclusions are: (a) the Wald statistic is less powerful than the likelihood ratio and score statistics; and (b) one of the score statistics may have more power than the likelihood ratio statistic for some alternatives.
在本文中,我们引入了三种自然的“分数统计”来检验F(t_0)在使用当前状态数据进行非参数推理的情况下取固定值的假设。这三个新的测试统计量在一定(加权)l2距离方面具有自然解释,并且也与自然的“片面”分数有关。我们将这些新的检验统计量与Banerjee和Wellner(2001)为同一检验问题引入的经典Wald统计量和似然比统计量的类比进行比较。在经典的“规则”统计问题中,在零假设下,似然比、分数和Wald统计量都具有相同的卡方极限分布。与此形成鲜明对比的是,在这个非正则问题中,所有三种统计量在零假设下具有不同的极限分布。因此,我们首先建立了零假设下统计量的极限分布理论,并讨论了检验统计量的相关临界点的计算。一旦知道了零分布理论,直接的问题就变成了权力的问题。建立了三种统计量在局部替代条件下的极限行为。我们还通过一项有限的蒙特卡洛研究比较了这五种不同统计数据的效力。我们的结论是:(a) Wald统计量比似然比和评分统计量更弱;(b)对于某些选项,其中一个得分统计可能比似然比统计更有效。
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引用次数: 13
Some Variants of the Backcalculation Method for Estimation of Disease Incidence: An Application to Multiple Sclerosis Data from the Faroe Islands 估计疾病发病率的反计算方法的一些变体:法罗群岛多发性硬化症数据的应用
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2005-06-09 DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1002
N. Jewell, B. Lu
Backcalculation is a technique that was originally developed for the study of HIV incidence. Here we introduce some variants of the estimation technique that allow for (i) correlation of the unobserved disease incidence counts, and (ii) the use of a smoothing step as part of the maximizing step in the EM algorithm to reduce instability due to small diagnosis counts. Both of these issues can be important in the analysis of small "epidemics." In addition, identification of correlation between diagnosis counts provides indirect evidence of correlation among unobserved incidence counts, hinting at the possibility of an infectious agent. We illustrate the ideas by reconstructing an incidence intensity function for the onset of multiple sclerosis, using data from the Faroe Islands. Previously, this data had been examined statistically, by Joseph, Wolfson & Wolfson (1990), to address the issue of infectiousness of multiple sclerosis. We argue that the incidence function cannot directly shed light on the enigmatic origin of multiple sclerosis in the Faroe Islands during World War II, and, in particular, cannot discriminate between hypotheses of an infectious or environmental agent.
反向计算是一种最初为研究艾滋病毒发病率而开发的技术。在这里,我们介绍了一些估计技术的变体,它们允许(i)未观察到的疾病发病率计数的相关性,以及(ii)在EM算法中使用平滑步骤作为最大化步骤的一部分,以减少由于小诊断计数而导致的不稳定性。这两个问题在分析小型“流行病”时都很重要。此外,确定诊断计数之间的相关性为未观察到的发病率计数之间的相关性提供了间接证据,暗示了感染原的可能性。我们利用法罗群岛的数据,通过重建多发性硬化症发病的发病率强度函数来说明这些观点。此前,Joseph, Wolfson和Wolfson(1990)对这些数据进行了统计检验,以解决多发性硬化症的传染性问题。我们认为,发病率函数不能直接阐明第二次世界大战期间法罗群岛多发性硬化症的神秘起源,特别是不能区分感染或环境因素的假设。
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引用次数: 2
A Weighted Risk Set Estimator for Survival Distributions in Two-Stage Randomization Designs with Censored Survival Data 带有删节生存数据的两阶段随机化设计中生存分布的加权风险集估计
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 2005-01-01 DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1000
Xiang Guo, A. Tsiatis
In many clinical trials related to diseases such as cancers and HIV, patients are treated by different combinations of therapies. This leads to two-stage designs, where patients are initially randomized to a primary therapy and then depending on disease remission and patients' consent, a maintenance therapy will be randomly assigned. In such designs, the effects of different treatment policies, i.e., combinations of primary and maintenance therapy are of great interest. In this paper, we propose an estimator for the survival distribution for each treatment policy in such two-stage studies with right-censoring using the method of weighted estimation equations within risk sets. We also derive the large-sample properties. The method is demonstrated and compared with other estimators through simulations and applied to analyze a two-stage randomized study with leukemia patients.
在许多与癌症和艾滋病毒等疾病有关的临床试验中,患者接受不同的治疗组合。这导致了两阶段设计,患者最初随机接受主要治疗,然后根据疾病缓解和患者同意,随机分配维持治疗。在这样的设计中,不同治疗政策的效果,即初级治疗和维持治疗的组合是非常有趣的。在本文中,我们提出了一个估计器,在这种两阶段的研究中,每个治疗策略的生存分布与权利审查使用风险集中加权估计方程的方法。我们还推导了大样本性质。通过模拟验证了该方法,并与其他估计方法进行了比较,并应用于白血病患者的两期随机研究。
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引用次数: 4
Frontmatter Frontmatter
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2021-frontmatter1
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引用次数: 0
Relationship between Derivatives of the Observed and Full Loglikelihoods and Application to Newton-Raphson Algorithm 观测似然与全对数似然的导数关系及其在Newton-Raphson算法中的应用
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1010
D. Commenges, V. Rondeau
In the case of incomplete data we give general relationships between the first and second derivatives of the loglikelihood relative to the full and the incomplete observation set-ups. In the case where these quantities are easy to compute for the full observation set-up we propose to compute their analogue for the incomplete observation set-up using the above mentioned relationships: this involves numerical integrations. Once we are able to compute these quantities, Newton-Raphson type algorithms can be applied to find the maximum likelihood estimators, together with estimates of their variances. We detail the application of this approach to parametric multiplicative frailty models and we show that the method works well in practice using both a real data and a simulated example. The proposed algorithm outperforms a Newton-Raphson type algorithm using numerical derivatives.
在数据不完整的情况下,我们给出对数似然的一阶导数和二阶导数相对于完整和不完整观测设置之间的一般关系。在这些量很容易计算完整观测设置的情况下,我们建议使用上述关系计算不完整观测设置的模拟量:这涉及数值积分。一旦我们能够计算这些量,Newton-Raphson型算法就可以应用于找到最大似然估计量,以及它们的方差估计。我们详细介绍了该方法在参数乘法脆弱性模型中的应用,并通过实际数据和模拟示例表明该方法在实践中效果良好。该算法优于使用数值导数的Newton-Raphson型算法。
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引用次数: 0
Approximate Power and Sample Size Calculations with the Benjamini-Hochberg Method 用Benjamini-Hochberg方法计算近似功率和样本量
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1018
J. A. Ferreira, A. Zwinderman
We provide a method for calculating the sample size required to attain a given average power (the ratio of rejected hypotheses to the number of false hypotheses) and a given false discovery rate (the number of incorrect rejections divided by the number of rejections) in adaptive versions of the Benjamini-Hochberg method of multiple testing. The method works in an asymptotic sense as the number of hypotheses grows to infinity and under quite general conditions, and it requires data from a pilot study. The consistency of the method follows from several results in classical areas of nonparametric statistics developed in a new context of "weak" dependence.
在benjamin - hochberg多重检验方法的自适应版本中,我们提供了一种方法来计算获得给定平均功率(被拒绝的假设与错误假设的数量之比)和给定错误发现率(不正确拒绝的数量除以拒绝的数量)所需的样本量。当假设的数量增长到无穷大,并且在相当一般的条件下,该方法在渐近意义上起作用,并且它需要来自初步研究的数据。该方法的一致性来自非参数统计经典领域的几个结果,这些结果是在“弱”依赖的新背景下发展起来的。
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引用次数: 25
Statistical Classification of Abnormal Blood Profiles in Athletes 运动员血液异常的统计分类
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1011
P. Sottas, N. Robinson, S. Giraud, F. Taroni, M. Kamber, P. Mangin, M. Saugy
Blood doping has been challenging the scientific community since the early 1970's, where it was demonstrated that blood transfusion significantly improves physical performance. Here, we present through 3 applications how statistical classification techniques can assist the implementation of effective tests to deter blood doping in elite sports. In particular, we developed a new indirect and universal test of blood doping, called Abnormal Blood Profile Score (ABPS), based on the statistical classification of indirect biomarkers of altered erythropoiesis. Up to 601 hematological profiles have been compiled in a reference database. Twenty-one of them were obtained from blood samples withdrawn from professional athletes convicted of blood doping by other direct tests. Discriminative training algorithms were used jointly with cross-validation techniques to map these labeled reference profiles to target outputs. The strict cross-validation procedure facilitates the adherence to medico-legal standards mandated by the World Anti Doping Agency (WADA). The test has a sensitivity to recombinant erythropoietin (rhEPO) abuse up to 3 times better than current generative models, independently whether the athlete is currently taking rhEPO or has stopped the treatment. The test is also sensitive to any form of blood transfusion, autologous transfusion included. We finally conclude why a probabilistic approach should be encouraged for the evaluation of evidence in anti-doping area of investigation.
自20世纪70年代初以来,血液兴奋剂一直是科学界的挑战,当时输血被证明能显著提高身体表现。在这里,我们通过3个应用介绍统计分类技术如何帮助实施有效的测试,以阻止精英运动中的血液兴奋剂。特别是,我们开发了一种新的间接和通用的血液兴奋剂测试,称为异常血液特征评分(ABPS),基于红细胞生成改变的间接生物标志物的统计分类。在参考数据库中汇编了多达601个血液学概况。其中21个是从被判使用血液兴奋剂的职业运动员通过其他直接检测提取的血液样本中获得的。鉴别训练算法与交叉验证技术联合使用,将这些标记的参考轮廓映射到目标输出。严格的交叉验证程序有助于遵守世界反兴奋剂机构(WADA)规定的医疗法律标准。该测试对重组红细胞生成素(rhEPO)滥用的敏感性比目前的生成模型高3倍,与运动员目前是否服用rhEPO或已停止治疗无关。该测试对任何形式的输血也很敏感,包括自体输血。我们最后总结了为什么应该鼓励概率方法来评估反兴奋剂调查领域的证据。
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引用次数: 17
Estimating a Survival Distribution with Current Status Data and High-dimensional Covariates 用当前状态数据和高维协变量估计生存分布
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2202/1557-4679.1014
A. van der Vaart, M. J. van der Laan
We consider the inverse problem of estimating a survival distribution when the survival times are only observed to be in one of the intervals of a random bisection of the time axis. We are particularly interested in the case that high-dimensional and/or time-dependent covariates are available, and/or the survival events and censoring times are only conditionally independent given the covariate process. The method of estimation consists of regularizing the survival distribution by taking the primitive function or smoothing, estimating the regularized parameter by using estimating equations, and finally recovering an estimator for the parameter of interest.
我们考虑当生存时间仅在时间轴随机平分的一个区间内观察到时估计生存分布的反问题。我们对高维和/或时间相关协变量可用的情况特别感兴趣,并且/或生存事件和审查时间仅在给定协变量过程的条件下独立。估计方法包括采用原始函数或平滑对生存分布进行正则化,利用估计方程估计正则化后的参数,最后恢复目标参数的估计量。
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引用次数: 47
期刊
International Journal of Biostatistics
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