Iman F. Abu El Nader, A. Salama, Mohamed N. El-Gabry, Hesham M. Hussein, M. Abdelazim
The spatial variability of the focal mechanism solutions in the NW Egypt Cyrenaica and Levant-north Egypt domains of the Egyptian Continental margin is investigated based on the polarity of the P-wave first motions of eleven earthquakes with local magnitudes ML ranging from 4.2 to 6.2. The identified focal mechanism solutions in the Levant-north Egypt domain are evaluated in two sub-provinces with different geological settings. The first sub-province shows strike-slip faulting mechanisms with right-lateral motion along the NE-trending Rosetta-Qattara fault zone, while the NW-trending Temsah fault zone produces left-lateral strike-slip motion. The inland extension of the Rosetta-Qattara fault zone towards the Western Desert reflects the same sense of motion. Strike-slip faulting with thrust components dominates the focal mechanisms in the second sub-province but with a different stress orientation. A single thrust faulting mechanism event which occurred on the periphery of the continental shelf shows the same common orientation of the stress field at the Hellenic Arc. This type of mechanism in this locality can be explained by the mean of compressional stress transfer towards the coast generated by the accelerated southwest retreat of the Hellenic Trench. The complex regional stress along the Cyprian and Hellenic arcs, the current local structure features, and the dominant orientation of the pre-existing fault are the factors that contribute to the changeable stress pattern field in the Levant-north Egypt domain. A single event in the second domain, the NW Egypt Cyrenaica, is a strike-slip with a right-lateral sense of motion on a WNW-oriented plane, consistent with motion along the WNW tectonic fault which separates the continental shelf from the oceanic crust.
根据当地震级 ML 在 4.2 到 6.2 之间的 11 次地震的 P 波初动极性，研究了埃及大陆边缘西北埃及昔兰尼加域和北埃及黎凡特域的焦点机制解决方案的空间变异性。在具有不同地质背景的两个子省评估了在埃及北部黎凡特地区确定的焦点机制方案。第一个子省显示了沿东北走向的罗塞塔-卡塔拉断层带右侧运动的走向滑动断层机制，而西北走向的泰姆萨断层带则产生了左侧的走向滑动运动。罗塞塔-卡塔拉断层带向西部沙漠的内陆延伸也反映了同样的运动。带有推力成分的走向滑动断层在第二个分省的病灶机制中占主导地位，但应力方向不同。发生在大陆架外围的单一推力断层机制事件表明，希腊弧的应力场具有相同的共同方向。希腊海沟加速向西南方向后退所产生的压缩应力向海岸转移的平均值可以解释该地区的这类机制。塞浦路斯弧和希腊弧沿线复杂的区域应力、当地目前的结构特征以及原有断层的主要走向是造成黎凡特-北埃及域应力模式场变化的因素。埃及西北部昔兰尼加第二域的单个事件是在一个面向西北的平面上发生的具有右侧运动感的走向滑动，这与沿着将大陆架与大洋地壳分隔开来的西北构造断层的运动相一致。
{"title":"Spatial variation of the source mechanisms in the Egyptian continental margin","authors":"Iman F. Abu El Nader, A. Salama, Mohamed N. El-Gabry, Hesham M. Hussein, M. Abdelazim","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2024.41.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2024.41.4","url":null,"abstract":"The spatial variability of the focal mechanism solutions in the NW Egypt Cyrenaica and Levant-north Egypt domains of the Egyptian Continental margin is investigated based on the polarity of the P-wave first motions of eleven earthquakes with local magnitudes ML ranging from 4.2 to 6.2. The identified focal mechanism solutions in the Levant-north Egypt domain are evaluated in two sub-provinces with different geological settings. The first sub-province shows strike-slip faulting mechanisms with right-lateral motion along the NE-trending Rosetta-Qattara fault zone, while the NW-trending Temsah fault zone produces left-lateral strike-slip motion. The inland extension of the Rosetta-Qattara fault zone towards the Western Desert reflects the same sense of motion. Strike-slip faulting with thrust components dominates the focal mechanisms in the second sub-province but with a different stress orientation. A single thrust faulting mechanism event which occurred on the periphery of the continental shelf shows the same common orientation of the stress field at the Hellenic Arc. This type of mechanism in this locality can be explained by the mean of compressional stress transfer towards the coast generated by the accelerated southwest retreat of the Hellenic Trench. The complex regional stress along the Cyprian and Hellenic arcs, the current local structure features, and the dominant orientation of the pre-existing fault are the factors that contribute to the changeable stress pattern field in the Levant-north Egypt domain. A single event in the second domain, the NW Egypt Cyrenaica, is a strike-slip with a right-lateral sense of motion on a WNW-oriented plane, consistent with motion along the WNW tectonic fault which separates the continental shelf from the oceanic crust.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141660912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The night sky brightness at the RGN site (near the centre of Zagreb, Croatia) was monitored from January 2012 to August 2022. The first data set, covering the period 2012 to 2017, has already been analysed and the conclusions were published in Andreić (2018). The main conclusions are repeated here for comparison and completeness. The results of the analysis of the second dataset, covering the period from January 2018 to July 2022, are reported here. The first data analysis showed that the average night sky brightness did not change significantly from 2012 to 2017, excluding differences due to annual variations in meteorological parameters. The second data set (2018 to 2022) showed a slight decrease in night sky brightness compared to the first data set. The difference is small, about 0.2 mag/arcsec2 (mean values). In the second data set, there is a trend toward darker nights in later years that began three or four years ago (around 2019 or 2020). It is attributed to the modernisation of the public lighting network, where old, often very poor lighting fixtures are slowly being replaced by modern LED lighting fixtures, and to the effects of climatic changes leading to warmer winters with more clear nights.
{"title":"Trend svjetline noćnog neba iznad Zagreba u razdoblju 2012.–2022.","authors":"Krešimir Pavlić, Željko Andreić","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2024.41.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2024.41.1","url":null,"abstract":"The night sky brightness at the RGN site (near the centre of Zagreb, Croatia) was monitored from January 2012 to August 2022. The first data set, covering the period 2012 to 2017, has already been analysed and the conclusions were published in Andreić (2018). The main conclusions are repeated here for comparison and completeness. The results of the analysis of the second dataset, covering the period from January 2018 to July 2022, are reported here. The first data analysis showed that the average night sky brightness did not change significantly from 2012 to 2017, excluding differences due to annual variations in meteorological parameters. The second data set (2018 to 2022) showed a slight decrease in night sky brightness compared to the first data set. The difference is small, about 0.2 mag/arcsec2 (mean values). In the second data set, there is a trend toward darker nights in later years that began three or four years ago (around 2019 or 2020). It is attributed to the modernisation of the public lighting network, where old, often very poor lighting fixtures are slowly being replaced by modern LED lighting fixtures, and to the effects of climatic changes leading to warmer winters with more clear nights.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139598928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mia Pupić Vurilj, Tina Brnas, Krešimir Ruić, J. Šepić, Marijana Balić
Meteorological tsunamis (i.e., tsunami-like waves of atmospheric origin) are regularly observed in the Mediterranean Sea. During a single event, destructive flooding usually occurs in one location or limited area. However, in May 2021 and June 2022, strong meteotsunamis hit several Mediterranean locations up to 500 km apart. In the morning hours of the 24th of May 2021, a meteotsunami hit Bonifacio on the island of Corsica (western Mediterranean, France) and in the afternoon hours of the same day, another meteotsunami hit Široka Bay on the island of Ist (Adriatic Sea, Croatia), 500 km away. About 13 months later, on the 26th of June 2022, a meteotsunami hit Ciutadella on the island of Menorca (Spain) and two days later Bonifacio, 400 km away. Sea-level and atmospheric pressure data and satellite imagery, as well as synoptic conditions, associated with both events were analysed in detail. It has been confirmed that in the Mediterranean, meteotsunamis occur when meteotsunamigenic synoptic conditions prevail over the area, with a strong southwesterly jet stream embedded in dynamically or convectively unstable atmospheric layers standing out as the most important condition. The meteotsunamigenic potential of each of the three bays (Ciutadella, Bonifacio, Široka Bay) was investigated by considering: (1) the potential for Proudman resonance on the shelves offshore of the bays, (2) the orientation of the mouth of the bay and (3) the frequency of meteotsunamigenic synoptic conditions over the area. The strongest and most frequent meteotsunamis occur at locations where the shelf characteristics (width, depth, orientation), bay mouth orientation and distribution of general synoptic conditions, have characteristics that support the amplification of long-ocean waves and their propagation toward the bay mouth.
{"title":"Mediterranean meteotsunamis of May 2021 and June 2022","authors":"Mia Pupić Vurilj, Tina Brnas, Krešimir Ruić, J. Šepić, Marijana Balić","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.8","url":null,"abstract":"Meteorological tsunamis (i.e., tsunami-like waves of atmospheric origin) are regularly observed in the Mediterranean Sea. During a single event, destructive flooding usually occurs in one location or limited area. However, in May 2021 and June 2022, strong meteotsunamis hit several Mediterranean locations up to 500 km apart. In the morning hours of the 24th of May 2021, a meteotsunami hit Bonifacio on the island of Corsica (western Mediterranean, France) and in the afternoon hours of the same day, another meteotsunami hit Široka Bay on the island of Ist (Adriatic Sea, Croatia), 500 km away. About 13 months later, on the 26th of June 2022, a meteotsunami hit Ciutadella on the island of Menorca (Spain) and two days later Bonifacio, 400 km away. Sea-level and atmospheric pressure data and satellite imagery, as well as synoptic conditions, associated with both events were analysed in detail. It has been confirmed that in the Mediterranean, meteotsunamis occur when meteotsunamigenic synoptic conditions prevail over the area, with a strong southwesterly jet stream embedded in dynamically or convectively unstable atmospheric layers standing out as the most important condition. The meteotsunamigenic potential of each of the three bays (Ciutadella, Bonifacio, Široka Bay) was investigated by considering: (1) the potential for Proudman resonance on the shelves offshore of the bays, (2) the orientation of the mouth of the bay and (3) the frequency of meteotsunamigenic synoptic conditions over the area. The strongest and most frequent meteotsunamis occur at locations where the shelf characteristics (width, depth, orientation), bay mouth orientation and distribution of general synoptic conditions, have characteristics that support the amplification of long-ocean waves and their propagation toward the bay mouth.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139248129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the expected future heat load in five Croatian cities: Dubrovnik, Zadar, Rijeka, Zagreb, and Osijek. The heat load is estimated by temperature-related climate indices and mean, maximum and minimum daily temperatures obtained by climate simulations using two different regional climate models (DHMZ-RegCM4 and SMHI-RCA4) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km, forced with two global climate models (EC-EARTH and MPI-ESM-MR/LR) for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). By comparing these variables for the period 2041–2070 with respect to the current climate (defined as that of the period 1991–2020), a significant increase in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures was observed in all analysed combinations of regional and global climate models for all analysed cities. Although there is a difference in results depending on the combination of regional and global models, the largest increase is mainly found in the warm part of the year (April-October), with the strongest warming of Dubrovnik and Rijeka. Due to similar trends in minimum and maximum temperatures, the trend in the daily temperature range is weak. Under warmer climate conditions, the number of days with a maximum air temperature above 25 °C increases in all considered cities (especially in Dubrovnik), as does the number of days with a minimum air temperature exceeding 20 °C (especially in Rijeka and Zadar). Furthermore, a reduction in the number of days with maximum and minimum temperatures below 0 °C is projected for all cities. Nevertheless, some differences are found between coastal and inland cities caused by local factors.
本文研究了克罗地亚五个城市未来的预期热负荷：杜布罗夫尼克、扎达尔、里耶卡、萨格勒布和奥西耶克。热负荷是通过与温度相关的气候指数以及日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温估算得出的，这些数据是使用两个不同的区域气候模型（DHMZ-RegCM4 和 SMHI-RCA4）进行气候模拟得出的，水平分辨率为 12.5 千米，并使用两个全球气候模型（EC-EARTH 和 MPI-ESM-MR/LR）对两种不同的温室气体浓度情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）进行模拟。通过比较 2041-2070 年期间与当前气候（定义为 1991-2020 年期间）的这些变量，在所有分析的区域和全球气候模型组合中，观察到所有分析城市的平均气温、最高气温和最低气温显著上升。虽然地区和全球模型组合的结果有所不同，但最大的增幅主要出现在一年中的温暖季节（4 月至 10 月），杜布罗夫尼克和里耶卡的升温幅度最大。由于最低气温和最高气温的变化趋势相似，日气温变化趋势较弱。在气候变暖的情况下，所有城市（尤其是杜布罗夫尼克）最高气温超过 25 °C 的天数都会增加，最低气温超过 20 °C 的天数也会增加（尤其是里耶卡和扎达尔）。此外，预计所有城市的最高气温和最低气温低于 0 °C 的天数都会减少。然而，由于当地因素，沿海城市和内陆城市之间存在一些差异。
{"title":"Očekivano toplinsko opterećenje Dubrovnika, Osijeka, Rijeke, Zadra i Zagreba prema projekcijama regionalnih klimatskih modela","authors":"Mia Agapito, Ivana Herceg-Bulić, Ivan Güttler","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.6","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the expected future heat load in five Croatian cities: Dubrovnik, Zadar, Rijeka, Zagreb, and Osijek. The heat load is estimated by temperature-related climate indices and mean, maximum and minimum daily temperatures obtained by climate simulations using two different regional climate models (DHMZ-RegCM4 and SMHI-RCA4) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km, forced with two global climate models (EC-EARTH and MPI-ESM-MR/LR) for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). By comparing these variables for the period 2041–2070 with respect to the current climate (defined as that of the period 1991–2020), a significant increase in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures was observed in all analysed combinations of regional and global climate models for all analysed cities. Although there is a difference in results depending on the combination of regional and global models, the largest increase is mainly found in the warm part of the year (April-October), with the strongest warming of Dubrovnik and Rijeka. Due to similar trends in minimum and maximum temperatures, the trend in the daily temperature range is weak. Under warmer climate conditions, the number of days with a maximum air temperature above 25 °C increases in all considered cities (especially in Dubrovnik), as does the number of days with a minimum air temperature exceeding 20 °C (especially in Rijeka and Zadar). Furthermore, a reduction in the number of days with maximum and minimum temperatures below 0 °C is projected for all cities. Nevertheless, some differences are found between coastal and inland cities caused by local factors.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139250199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
F. Arnaut, Vesna Cvetkov, Dragana M. Đurić, M. Samardzic-Petrovic
We demonstrate the use of Facebook's Prophet (usually just called Prophet) model for short-term air quality forecasting at Belgrade-Zeleno brdo monitoring station. To address missing data, we applied minimally-altering data distribution imputation techniques. Linear interpolation proved effective for short-term gaps (1–3 hours), hourly mean method for mid-term gaps (24–26 hours), and Hermite interpolation polynomial for long-term gaps (132–148 hours). The most significant data change was a 3.4% shift in skewness. Partitioning the time series enabled a detailed quality assessment of the Prophet model, with PM2.5 predictions being more precise than PM10. Using the longest time series for forecasting yielded absolute errors of 6.5 μg/m3 for PM10 and 2.7 μg/m3 for PM2.5. Based on 173 forecasts, we anticipate Prophet model root-mean-square values under 6.26 μg/m3 and 9.99 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and PM10 in 50% of cases. The Prophet model demonstrates several advantages and yields satisfactory results. In future research, the results obtained from the Prophet model will serve as benchmark values for other models. Additionally, the Prophet model is capable of providing satisfactory air quality forecasting results and will be utilized in future research.
{"title":"Short-term forecasting of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations with Facebook's Prophet Model at the Belgrade-Zeleno brdo","authors":"F. Arnaut, Vesna Cvetkov, Dragana M. Đurić, M. Samardzic-Petrovic","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.7","url":null,"abstract":"We demonstrate the use of Facebook's Prophet (usually just called Prophet) model for short-term air quality forecasting at Belgrade-Zeleno brdo monitoring station. To address missing data, we applied minimally-altering data distribution imputation techniques. Linear interpolation proved effective for short-term gaps (1–3 hours), hourly mean method for mid-term gaps (24–26 hours), and Hermite interpolation polynomial for long-term gaps (132–148 hours). The most significant data change was a 3.4% shift in skewness. Partitioning the time series enabled a detailed quality assessment of the Prophet model, with PM2.5 predictions being more precise than PM10. Using the longest time series for forecasting yielded absolute errors of 6.5 μg/m3 for PM10 and 2.7 μg/m3 for PM2.5. Based on 173 forecasts, we anticipate Prophet model root-mean-square values under 6.26 μg/m3 and 9.99 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and PM10 in 50% of cases. The Prophet model demonstrates several advantages and yields satisfactory results. In future research, the results obtained from the Prophet model will serve as benchmark values for other models. Additionally, the Prophet model is capable of providing satisfactory air quality forecasting results and will be utilized in future research.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139250485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Accurate visibility forecasting is essential for safe aircraft operations. This study examines how various configurations of the Random Forest model can enhance visibility predictions. Preprocessing techniques are employed, including correlation analysis to identify fundamental relationships in weather observations. Time-series data is transformed into a regular Data Frame to facilitate analysis. This study proposes a classification framework for organizing visibility data and phenomena, which is then used to develop a visibility forecast using the Random Forest method. The study also presents procedures for hyperparameter tuning, feature selection, data balancing, and accuracy evaluation for this dataset. The main outcomes are the Random Forest model parameters for a three-hour visibility forecast, along with an analysis of errors in low visibility forecasts. Additionally, models for one-hour forecasts and visibility forecasting under precipitation are also examined. The resulting models demonstrate a deterministic forecast accuracy of approximately 78%, with a false alarm rate of around 6%, providing a comprehensive overview of the capabilities of the Random Forest model for visibility forecasting. As anticipated, the model demonstrated limitations in accurately simulating fast radiative cooling or abrupt decreases in visibility caused by precipitation. Specifically, in relation to precipitation, the model achieved an accuracy of 79%, yet exhibited a false alarm rate of 19%. Additionally, this method sets a foundation for enhancing prediction accuracy through the inclusion of supplementary forecast data, while its implementation on real-world datasets expands the reach of machine learning techniques to the members of the meteorological community.
{"title":"Kratkoročna prognoza vidljivosti određena metodom slučajne šume","authors":"David Sládek","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.5","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate visibility forecasting is essential for safe aircraft operations. This study examines how various configurations of the Random Forest model can enhance visibility predictions. Preprocessing techniques are employed, including correlation analysis to identify fundamental relationships in weather observations. Time-series data is transformed into a regular Data Frame to facilitate analysis. This study proposes a classification framework for organizing visibility data and phenomena, which is then used to develop a visibility forecast using the Random Forest method. The study also presents procedures for hyperparameter tuning, feature selection, data balancing, and accuracy evaluation for this dataset. The main outcomes are the Random Forest model parameters for a three-hour visibility forecast, along with an analysis of errors in low visibility forecasts. Additionally, models for one-hour forecasts and visibility forecasting under precipitation are also examined. The resulting models demonstrate a deterministic forecast accuracy of approximately 78%, with a false alarm rate of around 6%, providing a comprehensive overview of the capabilities of the Random Forest model for visibility forecasting. As anticipated, the model demonstrated limitations in accurately simulating fast radiative cooling or abrupt decreases in visibility caused by precipitation. Specifically, in relation to precipitation, the model achieved an accuracy of 79%, yet exhibited a false alarm rate of 19%. Additionally, this method sets a foundation for enhancing prediction accuracy through the inclusion of supplementary forecast data, while its implementation on real-world datasets expands the reach of machine learning techniques to the members of the meteorological community.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45853404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
András Kuki, S. Lipcsei, I. Gere, F. Járai-Szabó, Attila Gergely, Dávid Ugi, P. D. Ispánovity, Z. Dankházi, I. Groma, Z. Néda
Universalities and intriguing analogies in the statistics of avalanches are revealed for three physical systems defined on largely different length and energy scales. Earthquakes induced by tectonic scale dynamics, micro-scale level quakes observed from slipping crystallographic planes in metals and a one-dimensional, room-scale spring-block type Burridge-Knopoff model is studied from similar statistical viewpoints. The validity of the Gutenberg-Richter law for the probability density of the energies dissipated in the avalanches is proven for all three systems. By analysing data for three different seismic zones and performing acoustic detection for different Zn samples under deformation, universality for the involved scaling exponent is revealed. With proper parameter choices the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model is able to reproduce the same scaling law. The recurrence times of earthquakes and micro-quakes with magnitudes above a given threshold present again similar distributions and striking quantitative similarities. However, the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model cannot account for the correlations observed in such statistics.
{"title":"Statistical analogies between earthquakes, micro-quakes in metals and avalanches in the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model","authors":"András Kuki, S. Lipcsei, I. Gere, F. Járai-Szabó, Attila Gergely, Dávid Ugi, P. D. Ispánovity, Z. Dankházi, I. Groma, Z. Néda","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.4","url":null,"abstract":"Universalities and intriguing analogies in the statistics of avalanches are revealed for three physical systems defined on largely different length and energy scales. Earthquakes induced by tectonic scale dynamics, micro-scale level quakes observed from slipping crystallographic planes in metals and a one-dimensional, room-scale spring-block type Burridge-Knopoff model is studied from similar statistical viewpoints. The validity of the Gutenberg-Richter law for the probability density of the energies dissipated in the avalanches is proven for all three systems. By analysing data for three different seismic zones and performing acoustic detection for different Zn samples under deformation, universality for the involved scaling exponent is revealed. With proper parameter choices the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model is able to reproduce the same scaling law. The recurrence times of earthquakes and micro-quakes with magnitudes above a given threshold present again similar distributions and striking quantitative similarities. However, the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model cannot account for the correlations observed in such statistics.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43523759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
V. Gümüş, Yavuz Avşaroğlu, O. Şimşek, Latif Doğan Dinsever
In this study, trend analyses of six climatic variables (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation) for 1966-2020 are conducted for the Southeastern Anatolia Region, which is the main focus of the integrated development project in Turkey (Turkish acronym GAP). The trends for seasonal and annual periods are determined using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and Sen's slope method and regression analyses are used to find the trends' slopes. Moreover, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) is also used to find the time series changes for low, medium, and high values. As a result of the analyses, the mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures in the GAP region show increasing trends according to both methods. Significant trends are obtained at a limited number of stations for the precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed with the MK test, while consistent decreasing trends are found at most stations with the ITA method.
{"title":"Evaluation of meteorological time series trends in Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey","authors":"V. Gümüş, Yavuz Avşaroğlu, O. Şimşek, Latif Doğan Dinsever","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.3","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, trend analyses of six climatic variables (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation) for 1966-2020 are conducted for the Southeastern Anatolia Region, which is the main focus of the integrated development project in Turkey (Turkish acronym GAP). The trends for seasonal and annual periods are determined using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and Sen's slope method and regression analyses are used to find the trends' slopes. Moreover, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) is also used to find the time series changes for low, medium, and high values. As a result of the analyses, the mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures in the GAP region show increasing trends according to both methods. Significant trends are obtained at a limited number of stations for the precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed with the MK test, while consistent decreasing trends are found at most stations with the ITA method.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67353852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Akib Javed, Mardia, N. Sumari, Muhammad Nasar Ahmad, Nayyer Saleem, M. Ali, Md. Enamul Huq, I. Ara, Jiabin Wang, Zhuoyang Yu, Bin Bai, Z. Shao
This paper presents two novel spectral soil area indices to identify bare soil area and distinguish it more accurately from the urban impervious surface area (ISA). This study designs these indices based on medium spatial resolution remote sensing data from Landsat 8 OLI dataset. Extracting bare soil or urban ISA is more challenging than extracting water bodies or vegetation in multispectral Remote Sensing (RS). Bare soil and the urban ISA area often were mixed because of their spectral similarity in multispectral sensors. This study proposes Normalized Soil Area Index 1 (NSAI1) and Normalized Soil Area Index 2 (NSAI2) using typical multispectral bands. Experiments show that these two indices have an overall accuracy of around 90%. The spectral similarity index (SDI) shows these two indices have higher separability between soil area and ISA than previous indices. The result shows that percentile thresholds can effectively classify bare soil areas from the background. The combined use of both indices measured the soil area of the study area over 71 km2. Most importantly, proposed soil indices can refine urban ISA measurement accuracy in spatiotemporal studies.
{"title":"Development of normalized soil area index for urban studies using remote sensing data","authors":"Akib Javed, Mardia, N. Sumari, Muhammad Nasar Ahmad, Nayyer Saleem, M. Ali, Md. Enamul Huq, I. Ara, Jiabin Wang, Zhuoyang Yu, Bin Bai, Z. Shao","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.2","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents two novel spectral soil area indices to identify bare soil area and distinguish it more accurately from the urban impervious surface area (ISA). This study designs these indices based on medium spatial resolution remote sensing data from Landsat 8 OLI dataset. Extracting bare soil or urban ISA is more challenging than extracting water bodies or vegetation in multispectral Remote Sensing (RS). Bare soil and the urban ISA area often were mixed because of their spectral similarity in multispectral sensors. This study proposes Normalized Soil Area Index 1 (NSAI1) and Normalized Soil Area Index 2 (NSAI2) using typical multispectral bands. Experiments show that these two indices have an overall accuracy of around 90%. The spectral similarity index (SDI) shows these two indices have higher separability between soil area and ISA than previous indices. The result shows that percentile thresholds can effectively classify bare soil areas from the background. The combined use of both indices measured the soil area of the study area over 71 km2. Most importantly, proposed soil indices can refine urban ISA measurement accuracy in spatiotemporal studies.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67354237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dado Gladović, Jelena Parlov, Dario Perković, Zoran Nakić, Zoran Kovač
Due to the high vulnerability of the karst aquifer to the surface contaminants, a precisely defined catchment area has the highest priority. In this study, the influence of slope inclination, the doline density analysis, and the water budget analysis in the delineation process of a complex karst catchment area is discussed. To define hydrogeological role of lithological units, cross sections of slope inclination and doline density were combined with hydrogeological cross sections, while the degree of karstification was used to describe the permeability of rock units. The verification of karst catchment delineation area was performed with water budget analysis. The methodology used for the determination of hydrogeological behavior and delineation of a complex karst catchment area (Slunjčica River basin, Croatia) is shown with the flow diagram. It has been found that the highest doline density appears in the range from 0 to 1° of the slope inclinations, and that it decreases with a higher slope degree. Although the results of this study confirm that even with the relatively small number of input data it is possible to define the karst catchment area, it must be emphasized that the doline density analysis presents an indispensable tool in the research related to the definition of karst catchment areas.
{"title":"The role of slope inclination, doline density and water budget analysis in delineation of complex karst catchment area of Slunjčica River (Croatia)","authors":"Dado Gladović, Jelena Parlov, Dario Perković, Zoran Nakić, Zoran Kovač","doi":"10.15233/gfz.2023.40.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2023.40.1","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the high vulnerability of the karst aquifer to the surface contaminants, a precisely defined catchment area has the highest priority. In this study, the influence of slope inclination, the doline density analysis, and the water budget analysis in the delineation process of a complex karst catchment area is discussed. To define hydrogeological role of lithological units, cross sections of slope inclination and doline density were combined with hydrogeological cross sections, while the degree of karstification was used to describe the permeability of rock units. The verification of karst catchment delineation area was performed with water budget analysis. The methodology used for the determination of hydrogeological behavior and delineation of a complex karst catchment area (Slunjčica River basin, Croatia) is shown with the flow diagram. It has been found that the highest doline density appears in the range from 0 to 1° of the slope inclinations, and that it decreases with a higher slope degree. Although the results of this study confirm that even with the relatively small number of input data it is possible to define the karst catchment area, it must be emphasized that the doline density analysis presents an indispensable tool in the research related to the definition of karst catchment areas.","PeriodicalId":50419,"journal":{"name":"Geofizika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67354024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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