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Trend analysis of mean and high flows in response to climate warming - Evidence from karstic catchments in Croatia 响应气候变暖的平均流量和高流量趋势分析——来自克罗地亚岩溶集水区的证据
IF 1 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/GFZ.2017.34.11
Krešimir Pavlić, Zoran Kovač, T. Jurlina
Persistence and evolution of trends of mean and high river flows from six hydrological stations on watercourses of the Kupa River (Kupari, Kamanje), tributary Čabranka (Zamost 2), Dobra River (Stative donje, Trošmarija), Mrežnica River (Mrzlo polje) and annual precipitation on three meteorological stations (Parg, Ogulin and Karlovac) were analysed. The paper focuses on seven indicators: annual mean flow, seasonal mean flows (winter and summer mean flows), instantaneous annual maximum flow, annual and seasonal precipitation. Analysed time series range from 1951 to 2013, and the fixed period ranges from 1984 to 2013. Time series of each indicator was scaled to standardized flow anomaly and was analysed using the Mann-Kendall Z test for monotonic trend, after which it is smoothed using LOESS algorithm. The analysis was conducted for each indicator for full record, e.g. 1951–2013, then 1952–2013 and so on until 1984–2013. Thus, the sample size varies from 63 to 30 years. The smoothed standardized flow anomaly is easily comparable among different hydrologic stations. The standardized flow anomaly on all analysed stations for all analysed indicators shows lower mean value than long-time average after mid-1980’s, when fixed period starts. Further analysis of summer and winter seasonal mean flows revealed different deviation from long-term annual flow average. Trend evolution of certain indicators was proven using Mann-Kendall Z test, by plotting Z values for each iteration of start year (1951 to 1984).
分析了库帕河(Kupari,Kamanje)、支流Čabranka(Zamost 2)、多布拉河(Stative donje,Trošmarija)、Mrežnica河(Mrzlo polje)河道上六个水文站的平均和高流量趋势的持续性和演变,以及三个气象站(Parg,Ogulin和Karlovac)的年降水量。本文重点研究了七个指标:年平均流量、季节平均流量(冬季和夏季平均流量)、瞬时年最大流量、年和季节降水量。分析的时间序列从1951年到2013年,固定时期从1984年到2013。将每个指标的时间序列缩放为标准化流量异常,并使用单调趋势的Mann-Kendall Z检验进行分析,之后使用LOESS算法对其进行平滑。对每个指标进行分析以获得完整记录,例如1951–2013年,然后是1952–2013年等等,直到1984–2013年。因此,样本量从63年到30年不等。平滑的标准化流量异常很容易在不同的水文站之间进行比较。所有分析指标的所有分析站的标准化流量异常显示,在20世纪80年代中期之后,当固定时期开始时,平均值低于长期平均值。对夏季和冬季季节平均流量的进一步分析显示,与长期年平均流量的偏差不同。通过绘制起始年(1951年至1984年)每次迭代的Z值,使用Mann-Kendall Z检验证明了某些指标的趋势演变。
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引用次数: 11
Robust network adjustment of vertical movements with GNSS data 利用全球导航卫星系统数据对垂直运动进行稳健的网络调整
IF 1 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/GFZ.2017.34.3
K. Kowalczyk, J. Rapiński
Long operation periods of GNSS stations give a possibility to use the data in analyzing vertical crustal movements with the accuracy better than ± 0.5 mm/y. During the analysis, the reliability must be considered. This involves the choice of the vertical crustal movements network adjustment method. In most cases, the vertical crustal movements network models are designed as absolute and related to the ellipsoid, where the movement is calculated on the basis of estimated station coordinates. The other option is choosing differential relative models, where GNSS vector coordinates are used. In this case, GNSS stations are connected and vertical movements between them are calculated. In the next stage, the network of vertical crustal movements is adjusted and the accuracy is assessed. The aim of this article is to calculate and adjust the unadjusted trend based on GNSS time series in an area located in Central Europe. The article presents the robust adjustment method with a weighting scheme. The obtained results show that the accuracy of vertical crustal movements model of 0.5 mm/y can be obtained from the GNSS observations processing. Also the benefits coming from the application of robust adjustment method are emphasized.
全球导航卫星系统台站的长运行周期为利用这些数据分析地壳垂直运动提供了可能性,其精度优于±0.5 mm/y。在分析过程中,必须考虑可靠性。这就涉及到地壳垂直运动网络平差方法的选择。在大多数情况下,垂直地壳运动网络模型被设计为绝对的,并与椭球体相关,其中运动是根据估计的台站坐标计算的。另一种选择是选择使用全球导航卫星系统矢量坐标的差分相对模型。在这种情况下,连接全球导航卫星系统台站,并计算它们之间的垂直移动。在下一阶段,对地壳垂直运动网络进行调整,并对其准确性进行评估。本文的目的是在中欧的一个地区计算和调整基于GNSS时间序列的未调整趋势。本文提出了一种具有加权方案的鲁棒平差方法。结果表明,通过GNSS观测处理,可以获得0.5 mm/y的地壳垂直运动模型精度。同时强调了稳健平差方法的应用所带来的好处。
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引用次数: 8
An intermediate complexity AGCM simulations of climate response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide 中等复杂度AGCM模拟大气二氧化碳翻倍的气候响应
IF 1 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/GFZ.2017.34.8
Irena Nimac, Ivana Herceg-Bulić
Atmospheric response to doubled carbon dioxide concentration is estimated by analyzing 35-member ensemble mean made by an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity. Simulated changes in the mean fields are evaluated for winter (January-February-March) and summer (July-AugustSeptember) seasons. Results show that doubled CO2 concentration causes warming of around 2 °C at all levels in the model. At the surface, the largest temperature change is found over the polar areas; while at the higher levels considerable warming is found mostly over the continental parts. Atmospheric warming at the 300 hPa level is accompanied by cooling over the polar areas. At the levels above 300 hPa, temperature drops globally. Changes in jet stream occur at Northern Hemisphere with larger winter amplitudes. During the respective winter, stratiform precipitation significantly increases at the higher latitudes of both hemispheres and decreases mostly over the oceans. Over the Northern Hemisphere, convective precipitation is significantly increased during the summer. Over the southern part of tropical Pacific, stratiform and convective precipitation is decreased during the both seasons. Results also demonstrate that indirect impact of increased CO2 concentration (i.e. effects associated with changes in the lower boundary conditions) generally has a stronger contribution to the tropospheric warming than direct CO2 impact (i.e. the impact associated with absorption and emission of longwave radiation).
通过分析中等复杂程度大气环流模式的35元集合平均值,估算了大气对二氧化碳浓度加倍的响应。对冬季(1 - 2 - 3月)和夏季(7 - 8 - 9月)季节平均场的模拟变化进行了评估。结果表明,二氧化碳浓度加倍会导致模型中所有水平的升温约2°C。在地表,最大的温度变化出现在极地地区;而在较高的纬度上,相当大的变暖主要发生在大陆部分。300千帕水平的大气变暖伴随着极地地区的变冷。当温度高于300hpa时,全球温度下降。急流的变化发生在北半球,冬季振幅较大。在各自的冬季,层状降水在两个半球的高纬度地区显著增加,而在海洋上空则主要减少。在北半球,夏季对流降水显著增加。在热带太平洋南部,两个季节的层状降水和对流降水都有所减少。结果还表明,CO2浓度增加的间接影响(即与下边界条件变化有关的影响)通常比CO2的直接影响(即与长波辐射的吸收和发射有关的影响)对对流层变暖的贡献更大。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of ocean SST dipole on Mongolian summer rainfall 海洋海温偶极子对蒙古夏季降水的影响
IF 1 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/GFZ.2017.34.10
H. Yasuda, B. Nandintsetseg, R. Berndtsson, G. Amgalan, M. Shinoda, T. Kawai
Cross-correlations between inter-annual summer rainfall time series (June to August: JJA) for arid Mongolia and global sea surface temperatures (GSST) were calculated for prediction purposes. Prediction of summer rainfall for four vegetation zones, Desert Steppe (DS), Steppe (ST), Forest Steppe (FS), and High Mountain (HM) using GSSTs for time lags of 5, 6, and 7 months prior to JJA rainfall was evaluated. Mongolian summer rainfall is correlated with global SSTs. In particular, the summer rainfall of FS and HM displayed high and statistically sigtime series of the SST differences between SST dipoles (positive – negative) with the summer rainfall time series was larger than the original correlations. To preused. Time series of the SST difference that represents the strength of the dipole were used as input to the ANN model, and Mongolian summer rainfall was predicted 5, 6, and 7 months ahead in time. The predicted summer rainfall compared reasonably well with the observed rainfall in the four different vegetation zones. This implies that the model can be used to predict summer rainfall for the four main Mongolian vegetation zones with good accuracy.
为了预测目的,计算了干旱蒙古的年际夏季降雨时间序列(6月至8月:JJA)与全球海面温度(GSST)之间的相互关系。评估了在JJA降雨前5、6和7个月使用GSST对沙漠草原(DS)、草原(ST)、森林草原(FS)和高山(HM)四个植被区夏季降雨量的预测。蒙古夏季降雨量与全球SST相关。特别是,FS和HM的夏季降雨量显示出较高的SST偶极子之间的SST差异(正-负)与夏季降雨量时间序列的统计sigtime序列大于原始相关性。预先使用。代表偶极子强度的SST差的时间序列被用作ANN模型的输入,并提前5、6和7个月预测了蒙古夏季降雨。预测的夏季降雨量与四个不同植被区的观测降雨量比较合理。这意味着该模型可以用于预测蒙古国四个主要植被区的夏季降雨量,具有良好的准确性。
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引用次数: 2
Recent geomagnetic investigations of Palagruža island Palagruža岛近期地磁调查
IF 1 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/GFZ.2017.34.7
Eugen Vujić, M. Brkić, Marko Pavasović
Intention of this work was to examine all available recent geomagnetic survey data, in order to assess Palagruža as a potential location for a permanent variometer station. The most recent data consist of absolute, total intensity vertical gradients and Overhauser effect dIdD vector measurements, carried out in period 2008– 2010. Evidences were found in low crustal field estimates, relatively low total field vertical gradient distribution over the island, quite high time series correlation with the near observatories, as well as in low noise level of geomagnetic components. These preliminary results indicate Palagruža as appropriate location for the repeat station as well as for the variometer station. However, additional investigations of the geomagnetic sea and coastal effects by using much longer time series are needed.
这项工作的目的是审查所有可用的最近地磁调查数据,以便评估Palagruža作为永久变差计站的潜在地点。最近的数据包括2008年至2010年期间进行的绝对、总强度垂直梯度和Overhauser效应dIdD矢量测量。在低地壳场估计、相对较低的全岛场垂直梯度分布、与近地观测台站具有较高的时间序列相关性以及地磁分量的低噪声水平等方面都有证据。这些初步结果表明Palagruža是重复站和变差计站的适当位置。然而,需要使用更长的时间序列对地磁海洋和海岸效应进行进一步的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical criteria for the accuracy of earthquake locations on the Croatian territory 克罗地亚境内地震位置准确性的经验标准
IF 1 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/GFZ.2017.34.5
Tena Belinić, S. Markušić
This paper presents the empirically based ground truth criteria, or shorter GT criteria, for the estimation of the epicentral location accuracy of the seismic events recorded at network stations within 400 km around the city of Zagreb. The criteria are based only on the network coverage metrics and the GT5 level represents an absolute location error lower than 5 km. They have been developed using a bootstrap resampling method: same earthquakes have been relocated many times but with different, randomly selected seismic stations. We used 330 reference events taken from the pages of ISC (ISC Reference Event Bulletin, 2008) and showed that the location accuracy is most affected by the distance to the farthest station in the seismic network, while not at all influenced by the distance to the nearest. The developed GT criteria for GT595% level of accuracy require 10 or more network stations, all within 125 km from the epicentre, and the secondary azimuthal gap (the largest gap when any given station is removed from the network) less than 200°, or the network quality metric (the deviation between the optimal uniformly distributed network and the actual network) less than 0.41. The obtained results revealed that the global criteria are too restrictive and unsuitable for the studied area since they require more regular networks. With our criteria, it is possible to achieve higher accuracy for the networks with a bigger secondary azimuthal gap or greater network quality metric. In addition, our criteria limitations are shown for the areas with simpler geological structure.
本文提出了基于经验的地面真值标准,或更短的GT标准,用于估计萨格勒布市周围400公里范围内台站记录的地震事件的震中定位精度。这些标准仅基于网络覆盖指标,GT5级别表示绝对定位误差低于5公里。它们是使用自举重采样方法开发的:同一次地震被多次重新定位,但使用不同的随机选择的地震台站。我们使用了取自ISC (ISC reference Event Bulletin, 2008)页面的330个参考事件,结果表明,定位精度受地震台网中离最远台站距离的影响最大,而不受离最近台站距离的影响。制定的GT595%精度水平的GT标准要求10个或以上的台站,均在距震中125公里范围内,次级方位角差(任何给定台站从网络中移除时的最大差)小于200°,或网络质量度量(最优均匀分布网络与实际网络之间的偏差)小于0.41。结果表明,全局准则的限制太大,不适合研究区域,因为它们需要更规则的网络。使用我们的标准,对于具有更大的次方位角间隙或更大的网络质量度量的网络,可以实现更高的精度。此外,对于地质构造较简单的地区,给出了标准的局限性。
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引用次数: 3
Magnetic susceptibility and natural gamma radioactivity as indirect proxies for characterization of sandstones and limestones of the Sabinas basin 磁化率和自然伽马放射性作为Sabinas盆地砂岩和灰岩表征的间接指标
IF 1 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/GFZ.2017.34.6
J. A. B. Rodríguez, J. Fernández, A. Vega, Felipe de Jesús López Saucedo, Karla I. Cázares Carreón
An analysis of magnetic susceptibility and natural gamma radioactivity is presented as indirect proxies of the characteristics of sandstones and limestones of the Sabinas basin. These rocks are located in the sedimentary sequence ranging from the Upper Jurassic to the Cretaceous. The magnetic susceptibility indicates changes in the magnetic composition of these rocks and suggests changes in their weathering degree. Ranges of values of magnetic susceptibility in sandstones and limestones allow classifying them into different groups, suggesting variability regarding conditions of origin and evolution. High values of magnetic susceptibility in limestones can be linked to sedimentation in anoxic or reducing environment, as well as with its siliciclastic content. The natural gamma radioactivity expressed in the contents of Th and relationships U / K and Th / U also suggest the degree of weathering of these rocks, mainly in the sandstones. These relations also highlight others characteristics in the sandstones related the probable provenance of sediments, its distance, degree of weathering and transport dynamics. Using the values of U / K ratio in the sandstones, it is possible to suggest the probable quartz-feldspar relationships. These ratio values classified rocks as arkose or quartzarenite, indicating the maturity of the sandstones. According to the U / K ratio values, most of these rocks which show little maturity are called arkose. Using the values of the Th / U ratio, it is possible to suggest the textures of quartzarenites, classifying them as rocks with fabric that is clast-supported or matrix-supported.
用磁化率分析和自然伽马放射性作为萨比纳斯盆地砂岩和灰岩特征的间接指标。这些岩石位于上侏罗统至白垩纪的沉积序列中。磁化率反映了岩石磁性成分的变化,反映了岩石风化程度的变化。砂岩和灰岩的磁化率值范围可以将它们分为不同的组,这表明它们在起源和演化条件方面存在差异。石灰石的高磁化率值可能与缺氧或还原性环境中的沉积有关,也与其硅塑性含量有关。天然γ放射性在Th含量中的表达以及U / K和Th / U的关系也反映了这些岩石的风化程度,主要表现在砂岩中。这些关系还突出了砂岩中与沉积物可能的物源、距离、风化程度和运输动力学有关的其他特征。利用砂岩中的U / K比值值,可以推测出石英与长石的可能关系。这些比值值将岩石划分为长石或石英岩,表明砂岩的成熟度。根据U / K比值值,这些成熟度较低的岩石大多被称为长石。利用Th / U比值值,可以推测石英砂岩的结构,将其划分为碎屑支撑型和基质支撑型。
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引用次数: 4
Quality evaluation of height movement kinematic model of the Earth’s crust on the Croatian territory 克罗地亚境内地壳高度运动运动学模型的质量评价
IF 1 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/GFZ.2017.34.1
N. Rožić
The paper presents the empirical use of height movement kinematic model of Earth’s crust created for territory of the Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, in order to determine the relative height displacements of crust discrete points between different epochs. Also, presents the use of this model for the purpose of direct levelling measurement reductions determination, from surveying epoch to another unambiguously selected epoch, i.e. in purpose of height movement effects elimination from levelling network node benchmarks. For Croatian territory the quality of the kinematic model is indirectly tested, founded on the comparison of levelling measurement accuracy criteria related to the state II order levelling networks constituted with original and reduced levelling measurements. Levelling lines of two levelling networks of the II order, on the area of two deliberately selected and representative levelling loops of the Croatian state levelling network of I order, were analyzed. An accuracy criterion, using the original measurements and comparatively using the reduced measurements from their survey epoch to the I order network surveying epoch, is determined. Comparative comparison of the original and reduced measurement accuracy criteria is not clearly and unequivocally confirmed, nor completely rejected, the adequacy of the kinematic model quality for measurement reductions determination. However, comparison points to the fact that the quality of the kinematic model enables reliable determination of the relative height displacements at the centimeter level.
本文介绍了为克罗地亚、斯洛文尼亚和波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那建立的地壳高度运动运动学模型的经验应用,以确定不同时期地壳离散点的相对高度位移。此外,还介绍了该模型的使用,用于从测量历元到另一个明确选择的历元的直接水准测量缩减确定,即用于从水准网络节点基准消除高度移动影响。对于克罗地亚领土,运动学模型的质量是间接测试的,其基础是与由原始和减少的水准测量组成的状态II阶水准网络相关的水准测量精度标准的比较。分析了克罗地亚一级水准网中两个精心选择的具有代表性的水准环区域上的二级水准网的水准线。确定了一个精度标准,使用原始测量值,并比较使用从测量历元到一阶网络测量历元的缩减测量值。原始测量精度标准和减少的测量精度标准的比较并没有明确、明确地证实,也没有完全否定用于确定测量减少的运动学模型质量的充分性。然而,比较表明,运动学模型的质量能够可靠地确定厘米级的相对高度位移。
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引用次数: 1
Fluvisol permeability estimation using soil water content variability 利用土壤含水量变异性估算Fluvisol渗透率
IF 1 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/GFZ.2017.34.9
Stanko Ružičić, Zoran Kovač, Zoran Nakić, Daria Kireta
The use of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity can help to define soil permeability, i.e. can contribute to the estimation of water percolation through unsaturated zone. The goal of this paper was the estimation of soil permeability at the location of case study profile Kosnica, situated in the alluvial plain of the Zagreb aquifer, Croatia, based on the variation in soil water content. Zagreb aquifer represents the only source of potable water for inhabitants of the City of Zagreb and Zagreb County. The thickness of unsaturated zone of the Zagreb aquifer varies from 8 meters in NW part to 2 meters in SE part. The unsaturated hydraulic conductivity values were calculated according to the granulometric composition of soil horizons and with optimized soil parameters. Variation in unsaturated hydraulic conductivity showed that the upper part of the soil profile was generally permeable throughout the 2011/2012 hydrologic year. The unsaturated hydraulic conductivity calculated with optimized soil parameters gave the highest values, always greater than 1E-9 m/s. Even though the estimation of soil profile permeability would be more precise with measurements of water content and pressure head in each soil horizon, calculation performed in this manner can give the first insight in general estimation of the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity variability and related soil permeability.
利用非饱和导电性可以帮助确定土壤渗透性,即可以帮助估计水通过非饱和带的渗透。本文的目标是根据土壤含水量的变化,估计位于克罗地亚萨格勒布含水层冲积平原的科斯尼察案例研究剖面位置的土壤渗透率。萨格勒布含水层是萨格勒布市和萨格勒布县居民的唯一饮用水来源。萨格勒布含水层非饱和带厚度从西北部的8米到东南部的2米不等。根据土层的粒度组成,在优化的土壤参数下,计算非饱和导水系数。非饱和导电性的变化表明,在2011/2012水文年,土壤剖面上部总体具有渗透性。优化后土体参数计算的非饱和导水率最高,均大于1e - 9m /s。尽管通过测量每个土壤层的含水量和压头来估计土壤剖面渗透性会更精确,但以这种方式进行的计算可以第一次了解非饱和水力导率变异性和相关土壤渗透性的一般估计。
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引用次数: 10
The temporal and spatial variations in groundwater salinity in Mazandaran Plain, Iran, during a long-term period of 26 years 伊朗马赞达兰平原26年地下水盐度时空变化特征
IF 1 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI: 10.15233/GFZ.2017.34.4
M. Amiri-Bourkhani, M. Khaledian, A. Ashrafzadeh, A. Shahnazari
Groundwater resources are one of the main sources of water supply for agricultural sector in Iran. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the situation of groundwater salinity in Mazandaran for use in agriculture. In this study, statistical analysis of collected data, proper semivariogram model selection, cross validation of predictions and preparing probabilistic and zoning maps using geostatistical tools in the ArcGIS software, were performed. To investigate the spatial variations and preparing zoning maps of water salinity, ordinary kriging (OK) was used and the zoning maps were prepared. Spatial structure of electrical conductivity (EC) assessment showed a moderate spatial dependence in most years. Zoning and probabilistic maps of EC showed that the salinity of groundwater will be added and the most probable salinity is related the lowland areas in the eastern part of the plain. The use of this groundwater for irrigation in the long term can decrease the rice yield and faced rice production with a serious risk. The results of the Mann-Kendall and the Sen tests indicated a decreasing trend in the area of groundwater with EC higher than one dS/m in Mazandaran plain that this expressing an improvement in the quality of groundwater in the plain.
地下水资源是伊朗农业部门的主要供水来源之一。因此,本研究旨在调查马赞德兰的地下水盐度状况,以供农业使用。在本研究中,对收集的数据进行了统计分析,选择了适当的半变差函数模型,对预测进行了交叉验证,并使用ArcGIS软件中的地质统计学工具编制了概率图和分区图。为了研究水矿化度的空间变化并绘制水矿化度区划图,使用了普通克里格法(OK)并绘制了水矿化度分区图。电导率(EC)评估的空间结构在大多数年份显示出适度的空间依赖性。EC的分区和概率图显示,地下水的盐度将增加,最可能的盐度与平原东部的低地有关。长期使用这些地下水灌溉会降低水稻产量,并面临严重的水稻生产风险。Mann-Kendall和Sen试验的结果表明,马赞德兰平原EC高于1 dS/m的地下水区域呈下降趋势,这表明平原地下水质量有所改善。
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引用次数: 6
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