Economics & Human Biology最新文献

英文中文

Measuring and testing vulnerability to food insecurity for prediction and targeting 衡量和测试粮食不安全脆弱性，以进行预测和确定目标。

IF 1.8 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101552

Marco Letta , Pierluigi Montalbano , Cristian Morales Opazo , Federica Petruccelli

Taking advantage of the exogenous nature of the COVID-19 shock, we present an empirical test to assess the validity of theory-based methods for targeting household vulnerability to food insecurity. Specifically, we test the performance of an applied measure of vulnerability to food insecurity using the World Bank’s multi-topic longitudinal survey data for Nigeria collected between 2010 and 2020, covering the period before and after the pandemic. The results show that this vulnerability measure severely underperforms in predicting food-insecure households out of sample relative to a simple, data-driven routine. Sensitivity tests using only the pre-pandemic data reveal that the poor forecasting performance is not simply due to the discontinuity in the data-generating process brought about by mobility restrictions. This evidence carries two important implications: i) from the methodological point of view, there is a need to enhance the effectiveness of targeting approaches employed by policymakers to identify vulnerability hotspots; ii) from a data-oriented perspective, this work underscores that predictive vulnerability models, regardless of their theoretical soundness or computational power, are constrained by data availability in data-scarce environments. Overall, we argue that greater methodological effort is required to address the limitations of current approaches in anticipating vulnerability to shocks.

利用COVID-19冲击的外生性质，我们提出了一项实证检验，以评估针对家庭粮食不安全脆弱性的基于理论的方法的有效性。具体而言，我们使用世界银行在2010年至2020年期间收集的尼日利亚多主题纵向调查数据，测试了粮食不安全脆弱性的应用衡量标准的性能，该数据涵盖了疫情前后的时期。结果表明，相对于简单的、数据驱动的常规方法，这种脆弱性措施在预测样本外粮食不安全家庭方面表现严重不足。仅使用大流行前数据的敏感性试验表明，预测效果不佳不仅仅是由于流动性限制造成的数据生成过程的不连续性。这一证据有两个重要的含义：1)从方法论的角度来看，有必要提高决策者用于确定脆弱性热点的目标方法的有效性；Ii)从面向数据的角度来看，这项工作强调了预测漏洞模型，无论其理论合理性或计算能力如何，都受到数据稀缺环境中数据可用性的限制。总的来说，我们认为需要在方法论上做出更大的努力，以解决当前方法在预测冲击脆弱性方面的局限性。

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引用次数: 0

Real wages around the world: Insights from linear programming and accounting for climate differences 世界各地的实际工资：从线性规划和气候差异计算的见解

IF 1.8 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101544

Michail Moatsos , Pim de Zwart

We collected the vast majority of price and wage data stemming out of the vibrant historical real wage literature of the last two decades. We applied a consistent methodology across the 86 included markets from around the world, with observations spanning from ca. 1200 to 1965. For computing the cost of living, our methodology accounts for the differences in temperatures across those markets. This adjustment impies higher costs for colder countries, with important ramifications. This approach reveals different levels and trends in relation to the “Little”, “Great” and “Colonial” Divergences. Unfortunately, the coverage is still considerably skewed towards European countries. Further work in the field of global real wages can fill this gap, and improve current estimates, for example by increasing the products covered and reducing the need for imputations that are used widely in the literature.

我们收集了绝大多数的价格和工资数据，这些数据来源于过去20年充满活力的历史实际工资文献。我们在全球86个纳入的市场中采用了一致的方法，观察时间跨度约为1200年至1965年。在计算生活成本时，我们的方法考虑了这些市场的温度差异。这一调整意味着寒冷国家的成本会更高，并产生重要影响。这种方法揭示了与“小”、“大”和“殖民”分歧有关的不同水平和趋势。不幸的是，报道仍然相当偏向于欧洲国家。在全球实际工资领域的进一步工作可以填补这一空白，并改进目前的估计，例如通过增加所涵盖的产品和减少文献中广泛使用的估算的需要。

引用次数: 0

Air pollution and health of working-age population: Evidence from thermal inversion 空气污染与劳动年龄人口健康：来自热反演的证据。

IF 1.8 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101558

Shijun You , Shin-Yi Chou

Despite the significant impact of air pollution on public health, its causal effects on a national scale have not been extensively studied. In this paper, we examine the impact of PM2.5 on adult health in the United States using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System for 2001–2012, focusing on a period of relatively low pollution levels. To address the endogeneity issue, we use the two-stage least squares regression with thermal inversion as an instrumental variable. Our findings provide evidence of the ongoing negative impact of air pollution on overall health. In particular, we find that a 1 µg/m³ increase in PM2.5 leads to an increase of 0.11 mentally unwell days and a 0.16-percentage-point rise in asthma incidence.

尽管空气污染对公众健康有重大影响，但其在全国范围内的因果影响尚未得到广泛研究。在本文中，我们使用2001-2012年行为风险因素监测系统的数据，研究PM2.5对美国成年人健康的影响，重点关注污染水平相对较低的时期。为了解决内生性问题，我们使用两阶段最小二乘回归与热反演作为工具变量。我们的发现为空气污染对整体健康的持续负面影响提供了证据。特别是，我们发现PM2.5每增加1 µg/m3，就会导致精神不舒服的天数增加0.11天，哮喘发病率增加0.16%。

引用次数: 0

Income-related mortality inequality and macroeconomic conditions 与收入有关的死亡率不平等和宏观经济状况。

IF 1.8 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101553

Johannes Lissdaniels , Ulf-G. Gerdtham , Gawain Heckley

This study examines the relationship between income-related health inequality (IRHI) and macroeconomic conditions. We complement an income group-based analysis of the impact of macroeconomic conditions on mortality by incorporating an analysis of the concentration index as a comprehensive measure of overall IRHI. Using a recentered influence function regression approach, we estimate the impact of macroeconomic conditions on mortality and its inequality over two decades of dramatically different macroeconomic environments in Sweden. We utilise individual-level administrative data on the entire male population aged 20–44 over the years 1979–2000. Our findings reveal nuanced dynamics. During the relatively stable macroeconomic period of the 1980s, mortality rates and their inequality remained largely unaffected by macroeconomic conditions. However, the macroeconomic turbulence of the 1990s generally increased mortality inequality, although not uniformly across all measures. This underscores the importance of using various inequality measures in empirical studies.

本研究探讨了与收入有关的健康不平等（IRHI）与宏观经济条件之间的关系。我们补充了基于收入群体的宏观经济条件对死亡率影响的分析，纳入了对集中指数的分析，作为总体IRHI的综合衡量标准。使用重中心影响函数回归方法，我们估计宏观经济条件对死亡率及其不平等的影响，超过二十年的宏观经济环境在瑞典显著不同。我们使用了1979-2000年间20-44岁男性人口的个人行政数据。我们的发现揭示了微妙的动态。在1980年代宏观经济相对稳定的时期，死亡率及其不平等基本上不受宏观经济条件的影响。然而，20世纪90年代的宏观经济动荡普遍加剧了死亡率的不平等，尽管并非所有指标都一致。这强调了在实证研究中使用各种不平等措施的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Growing up in a growing economy. Reassessing changes in biological living standards in Portugal during the twentieth century 在一个不断增长的经济中成长。重新评估二十世纪葡萄牙生物生活水平的变化。

IF 1.8 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101556

Hugo F.V. Cardoso, Nicola J. Murray

This paper explores the assumptions about sample representativeness and provides a re-analysis of the data utilized by Cermeño and co-workers (2023a) to examine changes in the biological standards of living in Portugal over the 20th century, from records of child height taken from the Hospital de São Roque (1945–2000) in Lisbon, Portugal. The authors suggest that the largest decline in the prevalence of stunting – and concomitantly, the greatest increase in biological standards of living or population well-being - occurred during the Estado Novo dictatorship, before the democratic transition of 1974. Our analysis relies on the original raw data and results, as well re-calculated prevalences of stunting, examination of heigh-for-age distributions, and it also relied on other growth studies for comparison and various historic documents and published sources to assess the representatives of the sample. The Hospital de São Roque data may not fully represent the population of Lisbon, or Portugal more broadly, suggesting some caution is needed when using them to examine changes in growth patterns over time. Results indicate that the most significant decline in stunting - reflecting the greatest improvement in the standard of living - occurred after, not before, the democratic transition of 1974.

本文探讨了关于样本代表性的假设，并对Cermeño及其同事（2023a）利用的数据进行了重新分析，以检查20世纪葡萄牙生活生物标准的变化，这些数据来自葡萄牙里斯本奥罗克医院（1945-2000）的儿童身高记录。作者认为，发育迟缓率的最大下降——以及随之而来的生物生活水平或人口福祉的最大提高——发生在1974年民主过渡之前的Estado Novo独裁时期。我们的分析依赖于原始的原始数据和结果，以及重新计算的发育迟缓患病率，身高年龄分布的检查，还依赖于其他生长研究进行比较，以及各种历史文献和出版来源来评估样本的代表性。奥罗克医院的数据可能不能完全代表里斯本或更广泛的葡萄牙人口，这表明在使用这些数据来检查增长模式随时间的变化时，需要谨慎一些。结果表明，发育迟缓率的最显著下降——反映了生活水平的最大改善——发生在1974年民主转型之后，而不是之前。

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引用次数: 0

Economic costs of distancing policy interventions 疏离政策干预的经济成本。

IF 1.8 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101546

Olivér Miklós Rácz

Outbreaks of new viruses are increasingly likely in the warming global climate. In the absence of medical treatments, distancing policy interventions (DPIs) are expected to remain the primary containment strategy. While effective in limiting social interactions and curbing transmission, DPIs also disrupt economic activity. This paper estimates the short-run economic effects of DPIs using monthly macroeconomic indicators from 44 countries during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main contribution of the paper is that its estimates account for not only the direct (DPI-compliant) but also the indirect (DPI-triggered voluntary) distancing effects of DPI-s, providing greater policy-relevance than earlier estimates neglecting indirect effects. DPI effects are identified in a two-stage empirical design. The first stage leverages a sharp decline in weekly social mobility following initial DPIs to isolate policy-driven behavior. The second stage carries these effects over to monthly indicators (industrial and manufacturing production, construction output, retail trade, inflation, and unemployment) using a difference-in-differences framework. I find substantial output losses attributable to DPIs, while voluntary distancing also contributed, but to a lesser extent. No significant inflationary or unemployment effects are detected. These findings suggest that output losses should be the primary economic concern when implementing distancing interventions in future pandemics.

在全球气候变暖的情况下，新病毒爆发的可能性越来越大。在缺乏医疗手段的情况下，预计保持距离政策干预仍将是主要的遏制战略。虽然dppi在限制社会互动和遏制传播方面有效，但也会扰乱经济活动。本文利用44个国家在2019冠状病毒病大流行第一年的月度宏观经济指标，估计了DPIs的短期经济影响。本文的主要贡献在于，它的估计不仅考虑了dpi的直接（符合dpi的）距离效应，还考虑了dpi的间接（由dpi触发的自愿）距离效应，与忽略间接效应的早期估计相比，提供了更大的政策相关性。在两阶段的经验设计中确定了DPI效应。第一阶段利用初始dpi之后每周社会流动性的急剧下降来隔离政策驱动的行为。第二阶段使用差异中的差异框架将这些影响转移到月度指标（工业和制造业生产、建筑产出、零售贸易、通货膨胀和失业率）。我发现dppi造成了大量产出损失，而自愿保持距离也有所贡献，但程度较小。没有发现明显的通货膨胀或失业影响。这些发现表明，在未来的大流行中实施隔离干预措施时，产出损失应该是主要的经济问题。

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引用次数: 0

The value of extending healthy life expectancy: A framework for healthcare policy evaluation 延长健康预期寿命的价值：医疗保健政策评估的框架

IF 1.8 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101557

Kazuya Ito, Yusuke Tanizawa, Ryuta Takashima

The widening gap between life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) has led to an increase in healthcare burden. Extending HALE presents a promising solution. However, realizing HALE extension requires substantial policy support, necessitating a quantitative and rational assessment of its value. Based on the economic model of the value of a statistical life (VSL), we propose a quantitative framework to measure the value of extending HALE and to assess related policy impacts. This modeling framework incorporates regional characteristics and quality of life (QoL), providing a flexible tool for evaluating healthcare policies. Through numerical analysis, we demonstrate that the value of HALE extension varies across age and QoL scenarios, suggesting the necessity of incorporating these factors to ensure effective policy implementation. Our analysis of policy impact highlights the realistic effect of HALE extension initiatives and potential benefits of narrowing the gap between LE and HALE. From a policy-making perspective, narrowing this gap could significantly alleviate healthcare burdens.

预期寿命（LE）和健康预期寿命（HALE）之间的差距不断扩大，导致医疗保健负担增加。扩展HALE提供了一个有希望的解决方案。然而，实现HALE的推广需要大量的政策支持，需要对其价值进行定量、合理的评估。基于统计寿命价值（VSL）的经济模型，我们提出了一个量化框架来衡量延长HALE的价值并评估相关政策影响。该建模框架结合了区域特征和生活质量（QoL），为评估医疗保健政策提供了灵活的工具。通过数值分析，我们发现HALE延长的价值在不同年龄和生活质量情景下存在差异，表明为确保政策的有效实施，必须考虑这些因素。我们对政策影响的分析强调了HALE扩展计划的现实效果以及缩小LE和HALE之间差距的潜在好处。从政策制定的角度来看，缩小这一差距可以显著减轻医疗负担。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of cash transfers on maternal health seeking: Evidence from Ecuador 现金转移支付对孕产妇求医的影响：来自厄瓜多尔的证据

IF 1.8 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101554

Daniel Maggio , Jack Cavanagh

Governments often aim to increase health service uptake using financial incentives. In the case of maternal healthcare, where the quality gradient between informal and formal care is quite steep, these incentives have the potential to improve birth outcomes significantly. However, whether these programs encourage care ultimately depends on the elasticity of demand for care. We examine the effects of one such program in Ecuador that aimed to incentivize care through conditional cash transfers for antenatal care and lump-sum grants to facilitate delivery. We employ a difference-in-discontinuities approach, exploiting a discontinuity created by the program’s targeting method to identify its causal impact. Our findings reveal a 10 percent increase in institutional deliveries, a 3.5 percent increase in trained delivery care, and a 20 percent increase in births at private facilities. We do not see evidence of a complementary increase in the uptake of antenatal care services, which was already high before the program. Our results also suggest a marginal decrease in birth weights as a result of the program, which we attribute to selection into measurement. We show that our difference-in-discontinuity approach improves precision compared to traditional regression discontinuity designs, but does so at the cost of increased specification error.¹

政府往往旨在通过财政激励措施提高卫生服务的接受程度。就产妇保健而言，非正规保健和正规保健之间的质量差距相当大，这些激励措施有可能显著改善分娩结果。然而，这些计划是否鼓励护理最终取决于护理需求的弹性。我们研究了厄瓜多尔的一个此类项目的效果，该项目旨在通过有条件的产前护理现金转移和一次性赠款来激励护理，以促进分娩。我们采用不连续性差异方法，利用程序目标方法产生的不连续性来确定其因果影响。我们的研究结果显示，机构分娩增加了10%，训练有素的分娩护理增加了3.5%，在私人机构分娩增加了20%。我们没有看到产前保健服务的补充增加的证据，这在该计划之前已经很高了。我们的结果还表明，由于该计划，出生体重略有下降，我们将其归因于选择测量。我们表明，与传统的回归不连续设计相比，我们的不连续差分方法提高了精度，但这样做的代价是增加了规格误差

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引用次数: 0

State level differences in life expectancy and lifespan inequality: Is it a matter of socioeconomic inequalities? 各州预期寿命差异和寿命不平等：这是社会经济不平等的问题吗？

IF 1.8 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101555

M.D.J.W. Wijesinghe , Michael P. Cameron , Susan Olivia , Les Oxley

Lifespan inequality refers to the variation in the age at which people die or the uncertainty surrounding the time of their death. This study investigates the patterns of lifespan inequality at the state level in the United States between 1959 and 2018, utilising Theil's entropy index. We also explore the demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with lifespan inequality using a Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) model. We observe a strong and statistically significant negative correlation between life expectancy and lifespan inequality at the state level overall and for both males and females. In terms of demographic and socioeconomic factors, the percentage of individuals who have completed high school and college education, the percentage of the Hispanic population, the number of physicians, the percentage of individuals under 65 with insurance, and population growth are all negatively associated with lifespan inequality. Moreover, there is a positive association between lifespan inequality and the rates of violent crime, CO₂ emissions per capita, and cigarette smoking. Our results reiterate that policies aimed at tackling disparities in socioeconomic position could also serve as useful strategies for addressing health disparities.

寿命不平等指的是人们死亡年龄的变化或死亡时间的不确定性。本研究利用泰尔熵指数（Theil’s entropy index），调查了1959年至2018年间美国各州寿命不平等的模式。我们还使用面板校正标准误差（PCSE）模型探讨了与寿命不平等相关的人口统计学和社会经济因素。我们观察到，在州一级，男性和女性的总体预期寿命和寿命不平等之间存在强烈的、统计上显著的负相关。就人口和社会经济因素而言，完成高中和大学教育的个人比例、西班牙裔人口比例、医生数量、65岁以下有保险的个人比例以及人口增长都与寿命不平等呈负相关。此外，寿命不平等与暴力犯罪率、人均二氧化碳排放量和吸烟率之间存在正相关。我们的研究结果重申，旨在解决社会经济地位差异的政策也可以作为解决健康差异的有用策略。

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引用次数: 0

Maternal circumstances and intergenerational transmission of health: A model-based recursive partitioning approach from Machine Learning 母体环境和健康的代际传递：基于模型的机器学习递归划分方法。

IF 1.8 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101551

Dweepobotee Brahma , Souvik Ghosh

This paper investigates how different maternal circumstances affect the intergenerational transmission of health from mother to infants differentially. Using a novel model-based recursive partitioning algorithm from the Machine Learning literature that uses econometric tests for parameter instability, this study identifies different circumstance profiles characterized by varying coefficients of intergenerational health transmission. Results exhibit considerable heterogeneity by both short-run and long run markers of maternal health and reveal that a global model for investigating intergenerational transmission is inadequate. Worse-off circumstances have stronger intergenerational transmission rates of maternal health to newborns. The results have implications for building more targeted social safety net policies and improve our understanding of how to break intergenerational cycles of ill-health.

本文探讨了不同的母性环境对母婴健康代际传递的不同影响。本研究使用机器学习文献中的一种新的基于模型的递归划分算法，该算法使用计量经济学测试参数不稳定性，确定了以不同代际健康传递系数为特征的不同情况概况。结果显示，短期和长期的孕产妇健康指标具有相当大的异质性，表明研究代际传递的全球模型是不充分的。在较差的情况下，孕产妇健康向新生儿的代际传递率较高。研究结果对建立更有针对性的社会安全网政策和提高我们对如何打破健康不良代际循环的理解具有启示意义。

引用次数: 0

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