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Climate risks to soy‐maize double‐cropping due to Amazon deforestation 亚马逊森林砍伐导致大豆-玉米双季种植的气候风险
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8381
A. T. Leite‐Filho, B. Soares-Filho, Ubirajara de Oliveira
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (BA) for cattle and soybean production has significant consequences for the various aspects of the climate system. Land surface modifications due to deforestation directly influence surface energy and moisture availability, hence impacting rainfall patterns, air temperature and the onset of the agricultural rainy season. Here, we assess the forest loss‐related climate risks for the first and second crop seasons of the soy‐maize double cropping system in the BA. We utilized long‐term, daily, remote sensed climate data and annual land‐use maps as input for a machine learning algorithm to isolate the signal of forest loss on the climate. Our findings indicate that forest loss in the BA intensifies the risks of climate change from the local to the regional geographical scale, with the impact being more pronounced at the regional scale. Between 1999 and 2019, largely deforested regions exhibited a delay of approximately 76 days in the onset of the agricultural rainy season. These regions also experienced a 360 mm decrease in rainfall and an increase in maximum air temperature of 2.5°C. In view of these results, there are collective advantages of halting deforestation. Conservation of the Amazon Forest is vital for maintaining the early onset of the agricultural rainy season, favourable temperatures and adequate rainfall volume needed for attaining high yields in the soy‐maize double cropping system.
在巴西亚马逊河流域(BA)为养牛和生产大豆而砍伐森林,对气候系统的各个方面产生了重大影响。森林砍伐造成的地表变化直接影响地表能量和水分的可用性,从而影响降雨模式、气温和农业雨季的到来。在此,我们评估了巴拉那大豆-玉米双季种植系统第一季和第二季与森林损失相关的气候风险。我们利用长期的每日遥感气候数据和年度土地利用图作为机器学习算法的输入,分离出森林消失对气候的影响信号。我们的研究结果表明,从地方到区域地理尺度,广阔陆地带的森林消失加剧了气候变化的风险,在区域尺度上的影响更为明显。从 1999 年到 2019 年,大部分森林被砍伐地区的农业雨季开始时间推迟了约 76 天。这些地区的降雨量也减少了 360 毫米,最高气温上升了 2.5 摄氏度。鉴于这些结果,停止砍伐森林具有集体优势。保护亚马逊森林对于保持农业雨季的提前到来、适宜的气温和充足的降雨量至关重要,这些都是大豆-玉米双季种植系统获得高产所必需的。
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引用次数: 0
Climatology of icing conditions over Colombia based on ERA5 reanalysis and in situ observations 基于ERA5再分析和现场观测数据的哥伦比亚上空结冰条件气候图
Pub Date : 2024-02-04 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8359
Kevin Chicaeme‐Ordoñez, Astrid Baquero‐Bernal, John F. Mejía
This study shows vertical profiles and spatial distribution of upper‐air icing frequency over the tropical Americas. We estimated the in‐flight icing (IFI) over Colombia using the Current Icing Product‐sonde‐A algorithm over two data sets: (1) vertical soundings of temperature and relative humidity and surface station data taken at 12 Coordinated Universal Time or UTC (07 Local Time or LT) on five sites and (2) ERA5 at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC (19, 01, 07 and 13 LT). In either case, icing was defined for IFI values exceeding 0.01. Results show that icing tends to occur between 550 and 300 hPa (4.5 and 8.6 km altitude), with a maximum at 500–550 hPa and monotonically decreasing to zero until reaching 300 hPa. Aeronautic reports were used to evaluate the total column IFI and a layer‐based IFI detection with a probability of detection of 87% and 71%, respectively. The annual cycle of IFI is modulated by the meridional migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) with a bimodal distribution with peaks during the rainiest seasons. Spatially, IFI hotspots are found in the Pacific, the Andes Mountains and the Amazonia regions of Colombia; the northern Colombia Caribbean region show lower IFI frequency with a relative maximum collocated over the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta mountains. The IFI exhibits a strong diurnal cycle with a high between night‐time to early morning and a low around noon.
本研究显示了美洲热带地区高空结冰频率的垂直剖面和空间分布。我们使用 "当前结冰产品-秒-A "算法对两组数据估算了哥伦比亚上空的飞行中结冰(IFI):(1) 温度和相对湿度垂直探测数据以及五个站点的地面站数据,时间为协调世界时 12 点(当地时间 07 点);(2) ERA5,时间为协调世界时 00、06、12 和 18 点(当地时间 19、01、07 和 13 点)。在这两种情况下,IFI 值超过 0.01 即为结冰。结果表明,结冰往往发生在 550 至 300 hPa(4.5 至 8.6 千米高度)之间,在 500 至 550 hPa 之间达到最大值,然后单调下降为零,直至达到 300 hPa。航空报告用于评估总气柱 IFI 和基于层的 IFI 检测,检测概率分别为 87% 和 71%。IFI 的年周期受热带辐合带(ITCZ)经向移动的影响,呈双峰分布,在多雨季节达到峰值。从空间上看,IFI 热点分布在哥伦比亚的太平洋、安第斯山脉和亚马逊地区;哥伦比亚北部加勒比海地区的 IFI 频率较低,相对最大值位于圣玛尔塔山脉。IFI 呈强烈的昼夜周期,夜间至清晨为高点,中午前后为低点。
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引用次数: 0
Multiyear variability of cloud genera in Krakow in the context of changes in the thermal state of the North Atlantic 北大西洋热状态变化背景下克拉科夫云属的多年变异性
Pub Date : 2024-02-03 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8376
A. Marsz, Dorota Matuszko, A. Styszyńska
The analysis conducted in this study examines the relationships between changes in cloud cover and the occurrence of cloud genera in Krakow, Poland, and the variations in the thermal state of the North Atlantic (NA) from 1951 to 2020. The existence of areas where annual sea surface temperature (SST) changes exhibit statistically significant correlations with the annual frequency of specific cloud genera was observed. These relationships vary in space: An increase in SST over the NA, particularly in the western and central regions of the subtropical NA, leads to a decrease in the frequency of stratiform clouds at all levels (Cs, As, Ns and St) and an increase in the frequency of convective clouds (Cu, Sc). An attempt to explain this phenomenon demonstrates that there is a correlation between the frequency of specific cloud genera and the variability of meridional SST gradients, as well as changes in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation in the NA (NA THC), which control the variability of mid‐tropospheric circulation (500 hPa). During positive phases of NA THC (the “warm” state of the NA), zonal circulation prevails over Europe, leading to an increase in the height of h500, an increase in the frequency of anticyclonic weather and a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic weather, including a significant proportion of frontal weather systems. Consequently, there is a reduction in frequency of stratiform clouds and an increase in the occurrence of vertically developed convective clouds, thereby increasing the possibility of observing middle‐level (Ac) and high‐level (Ci, Cc) clouds. In negative phases of NA THC (the “cool” state of the NA), the situation is reversed, with meridional circulation dominating over Europe, h500 lowering, an increase in the frequency of cyclonic systems with fronts, and an increase in the frequency of stratiform clouds. This results in decreased sunshine duration and a reduction in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth's surface.
本研究分析了波兰克拉科夫的云层变化和云属出现情况与 1951-2020 年间北大西洋(NA)热状态变化之间的关系。研究观察到,在一些地区,海面温度(SST)的年变化与特定云属的年出现频率存在统计学意义上的显著相关性。这些关系在空间上有所不同:北大西洋上空(尤其是亚热带北大西洋的西部和中部地区)的海面温度升高会导致各层次的层状云(Cs、As、Ns 和 St)出现频率下降,而对流云(Cu、Sc)出现频率上升。对这一现象的解释表明,特定云属的频率与经向海温梯度的变化以及控制中对流层环流(500 百帕)变化的北大西洋温盐环流强度的变化之间存在相关性。在北大西洋温盐环流的积极阶段(北大西洋的 "温暖 "状态),欧洲上空盛行带状环流,导致 h500 高度增加,反气旋天气频率增加,气旋天气频率减少,包括相当比例的锋面天气系统。因此,层状云的出现频率减少,垂直发展的对流云的出现频率增加,从而增加了观测到中层云(Ac)和高层云(Ci、Cc)的可能性。在北大西洋暖湿气流的负值阶段(北大西洋的 "冷 "状态),情况则相反,欧洲上空以经向环流为主,h500 降低,带有锋面的气旋系统频率增加,层状云的频率增加。这导致日照时间缩短,到达地球表面的太阳能减少。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty and outliers in high‐resolution gridded precipitation products over eastern North America 北美东部高分辨率网格降水产品中的不确定性和异常值
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8369
Tangui Picart, Alejandro Di Luca, René Laprise
Several observational precipitation products that provide high temporal (≤3 h) and spatial (≤0.25°) resolution gridded estimates are available, although no single product can be assumed worldwide to be closest to the (unknown) “reality.” Here, we propose and apply a methodology to quantify the uncertainty of a set of precipitation products and to identify, at individual grid points, the products that are likely wrong (i.e., outliers). The methodology is applied over eastern North America for the 2015–2019 period for eight high‐resolution gridded precipitation products: CMORPH, ERA5, GSMaP, IMERG, MSWEP, PERSIANN, STAGE IV and TMPA. Four difference metrics are used to quantify discrepancies in different aspects of the precipitation time series, such as the total accumulation, two characteristics of the intensity‐frequency distribution, and the timing of precipitating events. Large regional and seasonal variations in the observational uncertainty are found across the ensemble. The observational uncertainty is higher in Canada than in the United States, reflecting large differences in the density of precipitation gauge measurements. In northern midlatitudes, the uncertainty is highest in winter, demonstrating the difficulties of satellite retrieval algorithms in identifying precipitation in snow‐covered areas. In southern midlatitudes, the uncertainty is highest in summer, probably due to the more discontinuous nature of precipitation. While the best product cannot be identified due to the lack of an absolute reference, our study is able to identify products that are likely wrong and that should be excluded depending on the specific application.
目前有几种观测降水产品可提供高时间分辨率(≤3 h)和空间分辨率(≤0.25°)的网格化估计值,但在全球范围内,没有任何一种产品可以被认为是最接近(未知的)"现实 "的。在此,我们提出并应用一种方法来量化一组降水产品的不确定性,并在单个网格点上识别可能出错的产品(即异常值)。该方法适用于 2015-2019 年期间北美东部的八个高分辨率网格降水产品:CMORPH、ERA5、GSMaP、IMERG、MSWEP、PERSIANN、STAGE IV 和 TMPA。四个差异度量指标用于量化降水时间序列不同方面的差异,如总累积量、强度-频率分布的两个特征以及降水事件的时间。在整个集合中,观测不确定性存在很大的地区和季节差异。加拿大的观测不确定性高于美国,这反映了降水测量密度的巨大差异。在北部中纬度地区,冬季的不确定性最大,这表明卫星检索算法难以识别积雪地区的降水量。在中纬度南部,夏季的不确定性最大,这可能是由于降水的不连续性较强。虽然由于缺乏绝对参考而无法确定最佳产品,但我们的研究能够确定哪些产品可能是错误的,哪些产品应根据具体应用予以排除。
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引用次数: 0
Historical meteorological droughts over the CORDEX‐CAM (Central America, Caribbean and Mexico) domain: Evaluating the simulation of dry hot spots with RegCM4 CORDEX-CAM(中美洲、加勒比海和墨西哥)域的历史气象干旱:评估 RegCM4 对干旱热点的模拟
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8374
Luisa Andrade‐Gómez, Tereza Cavazos
Historical meteorological droughts are analysed over the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment‐Central America, Caribbean and Mexico (CORDEX‐CAM) domain during 1981–2010, with particular emphasis on the North American monsoon (NAM) and the mid‐summer drought (MSD) regions. We analyse droughts based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI‐12) and the standardized precipitation‐evapotranspiration index (SPEI‐12) using observations from CRU, CHIRPS, GPCP and ERA5‐Land reanalysis (ERA5), and assess the skill of the regional climate model RegCM4 (version 7) at 25 km resolution driven by ERA‐Interim (Reg‐ERA) and by three global climate models (Reg‐GCMs: Reg‐Had, Reg‐MPI and Reg‐GFDL). Observational data sets show large spatial variations in drought frequency, and both Reg‐ERA and Reg‐GCMs have difficulties simulating it. RegCM4 shows positive precipitation and water balance biases over mountain regions and negative ones over Central America, possibly due to the complex terrain and poor observational data coverage. Despite differences among observations, the trend in droughts, duration and severity show consistent dry hot spots (regions with long‐duration severe droughts) over the western United States, the United States‐Mexico border region, the NAM, the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America, with stronger values of SPEI‐12 than SPI‐12, particularly over the subtropical regions. Reg‐ERA and ERA5 show similar spatial patterns and similar positive and negative spatial biases relative to observations. Reg‐ERA and Reg‐Had adequately simulate the spatial patterns of the trend, duration and severity of droughts, with smaller biases in SPI‐12 than SPEI‐12; in contrast, Reg‐MPI and Reg‐GFDL overestimate the trend biases over northwest CAM. Observations, reanalysis, and RegCM4 capture an inverse drought response between the NAM and the MSD regions linked to climate teleconnections; however, a stronger drought signal is observed in the NAM, which appears to be linked to decadal variations from negative to positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation combined with La Niña conditions (negative El Niño 1+2 phase).
对 1981-2010 年期间协调区域降尺度试验-中美洲、加勒比海和墨西哥(CORDEX-CAM)域的历史气象干旱进行了分析,重点是北美季风(NAM)和仲夏干旱(MSD)区域。我们利用 CRU、CHIRPS、GPCP 和ERA5-陆地再分析(ERA5)的观测数据,根据标准化降水指数(SPI-12)和标准化降水-蒸散指数(SPEI-12)对干旱进行了分析,并评估了由ERA-Interim(Reg-ERA)和三个全球气候模式(Reg-GCMs:Reg-Had、Reg-MPI 和 Reg-GFDL)驱动的 25 公里分辨率区域气候模式 RegCM4(第 7 版)的技能。观测数据集显示干旱频率的空间变化很大,而 Reg-ERA 和 Reg-GCMs 都难以模拟干旱。RegCM4 在山区显示了正的降水和水平衡偏差,而在中美洲则显示了负的偏差,这可能是由于复杂的地形和观测数据覆盖率低造成的。尽管观测数据之间存在差异,但干旱的趋势、持续时间和严重程度在美国西部、美国-墨西哥边境地区、NAM、尤卡坦半岛和中美洲北部显示出一致的干旱热点(持续时间长的严重干旱地区),SPEI-12 的值强于 SPI-12,尤其是在亚热带地区。Reg-ERA和ERA5显示出相似的空间模式,与观测结果相比也存在相似的正负空间偏差。Reg-ERA和Reg-Had充分模拟了干旱趋势、持续时间和严重程度的空间模式,SPI-12的偏差小于SPEI-12;相比之下,Reg-MPI和Reg-GFDL高估了西北部CAM的趋势偏差。观测、再分析和 RegCM4 捕获了 NAM 和 MSD 区域之间与气候远程联系相关的反向干旱响应;然而,在 NAM 中观测到了更强的干旱信号,这似乎与大西洋多年涛动从负到正的十年期变化以及拉尼娜条件(厄尔尼诺 1+2 负相)有关。
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引用次数: 0
Climatological features of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean 北印度洋快速增强的热带气旋的气候特征
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8379
M. Ranalkar, Ram Kumar Giri, Kamaljit Ray
The study investigates the climatological variation of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (RITCs) developed in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) using observational and reanalysis data from 1982 to 2020. The analysis reveals that out of 153 tropical cyclones (TC) developed in the NIO, 59 TCs underwent rapid intensification (RI). The monthly variation of RITCs exhibited bimodal distribution with a primary peak in November and a secondary peak in May. The percentage of RITCs during April–June is higher as compared to October–December. The study identifies the core zones of RI initiation in the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. The occurrences of RITCs over the AS have been observed to increase since 2000. Over 65% of RITCs occurred within 12 h of TC formation, and the duration of RI varies from 24 to 48 h. TCs with lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) less than 55 kt have not undergone RI. The trend in the 95th percentile of 24‐h intensity changes is positive but insignificant (p‐value >0.05) in the AS, and for the BoB, it is negative and significant (p‐value <0.05). We infer that there has been an insignificant increase in the 95th percentile of 24‐h intensity change at the rate of 0.32 kt per year in the AS and a significant decrease in the 95th percentile of 24‐h intensity change at the rate of −0.21 kt per year in the BoB. The analysis further reveals that during the RI phase the composite SST of RITCs exceeds 30°C in the core zone, and the mid‐tropospheric (700–500 hPa) relative humidity at the centre of RITCs is high, preventing the intrusion of dry air from the west and aiding in the sustenance and intensification of TCs. The study not only provides insight into the climatology of RITCs in the NIO but also delineates the interplay of large‐scale atmospheric and oceanic parameters in fostering rapid intensification of TCs.
该研究利用 1982 年至 2020 年的观测和再分析数据,研究了北印度洋(NIO)出现的快速增强热带气旋(RITCs)的气候学变化。分析表明,在北印度洋生成的 153 个热带气旋中,有 59 个热带气旋经历了快速增强(RI)。RITC 的月变化呈双峰分布,主峰在 11 月,次峰在 5 月。与 10 月至 12 月相比,4 月至 6 月的 RITC 百分比更高。该研究分别确定了阿拉伯海(AS)和孟加拉湾(BoB)的 RI 起始核心区。据观测,自 2000 年以来,RITCs 在阿拉伯海上空的发生率呈上升趋势。超过 65% 的 RITC 发生在 TC 形成后的 12 小时内,RI 持续时间从 24 小时到 48 小时不等。在 AS 中,24 小时强度变化的第 95 百分位数趋势为正但不显著(p 值 >0.05),而在 BoB 中,趋势为负且显著(p 值 <0.05)。我们推断,在 AS 中,24 小时强度变化的第 95 百分位数以每年 0.32 千吨的速度增加,但不显著;在 BoB 中,24 小时强度变化的第 95 百分位数以每年-0.21 千吨的速度显著下降。分析进一步表明,在RI阶段,RITCs核心区的综合SST超过30°C,RITCs中心的对流层中层(700-500 hPa)相对湿度较高,阻止了西部干燥空气的侵入,有助于TCs的维持和加强。该研究不仅有助于深入了解北印度洋区域热带气旋的气候学特征,而且还描述了大尺度大气和海洋参数在促进热带气旋快速增强方面的相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Climatology
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