Global change has increased the intensity, duration and frequency of drought events, which cause forest dieback and alter forest ecosystem function. Over the past several decades, afforestation efforts have significantly increased globally to compensate for the deficiencies of natural forest. It is critical to understand the sensitivity and resilience to extreme drought in planted and natural forests, which may provide valuable information for forest ecosystem management in sight of climate change. Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) is a widely planted tree species in northern China, strategies of its marginal forests to drought stress are important to explore their responses to past drought events and evaluate their potential to withstand future droughts. In this study, dendrochronological methods and structural equation modeling (SEM) were employed to analyze the differences in the driving mechanisms of drought resistance and recovery between the planted and the natural P. tabulaeformis forests in the warm temperate-subtropical climate transition zone of China. The results indicated the following: (1) Both the planted forest and the natural forest of P. tabuliformis exhibited low resistance (RT) but high recovery (RC), while the planted forest showed lower RT and higher RC compared to the natural forest; (2) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was the dominant climatic factor, exerting similar positive effects on RT of the two forests but with contrasting effects on RC (significantly positive in planted forest yet negative in the natural forest); (3) Biotic factors, specifically the tree growth of the two preceding years (PreTRW) and tree age (AGE), also played critical roles by negatively influencing RT and RC in both forest types. (4) Compared to the natural forest, the higher drought risk in the planted forest was mainly attributed to its homogeneous age and similar individual structural characteristics (such as DBH and tree height), which underscored their greater vulnerability and limited their resistance under drought stress. These findings indicate that biotic and abiotic factors co-regulate the drought resilience of the planted and the natural P. tabulaeformis forests. This research provides useful references for afforestation planning and the preservation of natural forests under future climate change.
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