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A copula-based approach to instream ecological flow determination considering inter- and intra-annual runoff variability 考虑到年际和年内径流变异性的基于共轭的河内生态流量确定方法
Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.025
Xin Liu, Weixing Yang, Yu Zhang, Guohua Fang
Instream ecological flow (IEF) provides a flow reference value for maintaining the stability of river ecosystems and enriching biodiversity. Existing methods for determining the IEF often consider only one of the intra-annual runoff distribution characteristics or the inter-annual runoff distribution characteristics. In this study, a copula-based ecological runoff determination method is proposed to consider both annual and monthly runoff magnitudes. The marginal distribution functions of annual and monthly runoff are first determined using the great likelihood method. Then the copula function is used to construct the joint distribution function of annual and monthly runoff series. Using the flow duration curve method, the IEF under different annual and monthly runoff exceedance probabilities is calculated. The probability values are combined with the initial IEF values to determine the final IEF process. A case study is conducted using real-world data from the Tongtian River in China. The results show that the total annual basic ecological water demands of the Tongtian River under abundant, flat, and dry water years are 138, 102 and 72. 2 billion m3. The proposed method effectively avoids the disturbance of extreme runoff.
原生态流量(IEF)为维持河流生态系统的稳定和丰富生物多样性提供了流量参考值。现有的 IEF 确定方法通常只考虑年内径流分布特征或年际径流分布特征中的一种。本研究提出了一种基于 copula 的生态径流确定方法,同时考虑了年径流量和月径流量。首先使用极大似然法确定年径流量和月径流量的边际分布函数。然后利用 copula 函数构建年径流量和月径流量序列的联合分布函数。利用流量持续时间曲线法,计算不同年径流量和月径流量超标概率下的 IEF。概率值与初始 IEF 值相结合,确定最终的 IEF 过程。利用中国通天河的实际数据进行了案例研究。结果表明,在丰水年、平水年和枯水年,通天河的年基本生态需水总量分别为 138、102 和 72.2 亿立方米。提出的方法有效避免了极端径流的干扰。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in precipitation and air temperature over Turkey using innovative trend pivot analysis method 利用创新趋势枢轴分析方法分析土耳其降水量和气温的变化
Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.041
Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu, Gokmen Ceribasi
This study aims to investigate variability in precipitation and air temperature data of all provinces in Turkey. The innovative trend pivot analysis method (ITPAM) was used to analyze the trend in precipitation (mm) and air temperature (°C) data of Turkey in this study. Analyzing the country as a whole using this method is one of the strengths of the study. In the study, 30-year datasets between 1991 and 2020 were analyzed. As a result of the study, trend analysis results of precipitation and air temperature data of 81 provinces in Turkey were obtained. The significance level in trends was determined as 5%. In this study, 41% of the monthly total precipitation data of Turkey showed an increasing trend, 41% showed a decreasing trend, while 18% showed no trend. In the standard deviation of precipitation data, 44% of the data showed an increasing trend, 42% showed a decreasing trend and 14% showed no trend. In addition, it was concluded that there was an increasing trend of 67% in the monthly average air temperature data and an increasing trend of 46% in the standard deviation data. According to these results, it is concluded that monthly average air temperature data have a largely increasing trend.
本研究旨在调查土耳其各省降水和气温数据的变化情况。本研究采用创新趋势枢轴分析法(ITPAM)分析土耳其降水量(毫米)和气温(摄氏度)数据的趋势。使用这种方法对全国进行分析是本研究的优势之一。本研究分析了 1991 年至 2020 年的 30 年数据集。研究得出了土耳其 81 个省的降水和气温数据的趋势分析结果。趋势的显著性水平被确定为 5%。在这项研究中,土耳其月降水总量数据的 41% 呈上升趋势,41% 呈下降趋势,18% 无趋势。在降水量数据的标准偏差方面,44%的数据呈上升趋势,42%呈下降趋势,14%无趋势。此外,月平均气温数据中有 67% 呈上升趋势,标准偏差数据中有 46% 呈上升趋势。根据这些结果,可以得出结论,月平均气温数据在很大程度上呈上升趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Flood damage assessment for the Phan-Ca Lo River basin in Vinh Phuc Province, Vietnam 越南永福省 Phan-Ca Lo 河流域洪灾损失评估
Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.036
Hung Manh Phan, Chau Kim Tran, Hue Thi Minh Vu
In this research, the authors aim to evaluate the damage caused by floods in Vinh Phuc Province. The study incorporates the construction of hydro-hydraulic models and the development of damage functions for the main elements at risk. In order to ensure the accuracy of the calculated results, the hydro-hydraulic models and damage curves are verified for their reasonableness. The outcomes of this study give us an overview of flood damage in the research area. It indicates that the potential level of flood damage is a matter of significant concern, with an annual damage estimate of approximately 6.9 million USD. The research also reveals the distribution of damage by sector and by space. According to the research findings, the greatest damage was in Vinh Tuong District, where most of the damage was caused by flooding of agricultural land. In contrast, residential buildings in the area suffered relatively little damage compared to agricultural land. This information is crucial for decision-makers to implement effective and targeted mitigation measures.
在这项研究中,作者旨在评估永福省洪水造成的损失。该研究包括构建水文-水利模型和开发主要风险要素的损害函数。为了确保计算结果的准确性,对水文水力模型和损害曲线的合理性进行了验证。这项研究的结果使我们对研究地区的洪灾损失有了一个总体了解。研究结果表明,洪水灾害的潜在程度令人十分担忧,每年的损失估计约为 690 万美元。研究还揭示了各部门和各空间的损失分布情况。研究结果表明,损失最大的是永同区,那里的大部分损失是由农田被淹造成的。相反,与农田相比,该地区居民楼遭受的损失相对较小。这些信息对于决策者实施有效和有针对性的减灾措施至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Double decomposition with enhanced least-squares support vector machine to predict water level 利用增强型最小二乘支持向量机进行双重分解以预测水位
Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.558
Vikneswari Someetheram, Muhammad Fadhil Marsani, Mohd Shareduwan Mohd Kasihmuddin, Siti Zulaikha Mohd Jamaludin, M. Mansor
As global climates undergo changes, the frequency of water-related disasters rises, leading to significant economic losses and safety hazards. During flood events, river water levels exhibit unpredictable fluctuations, introducing considerable noise that poses challenges for accurate prediction. A prediction of water level by using existing water level data makes a major contribution to forecasting flood. Enhanced least-squares support vector machine (ELSSVM) is utilized by integrating an additional extra bias error control term. In this study, least-squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and ELSSVM optimized by the genetic algorithm (GA) were chosen to be compared with the help of data decomposition methods to improve daily water level prediction accuracy. Double empirical mode decomposition (DEMD) will be integrated with LSSVM and ELSSVM. Thus, the models are named LSSVM-GA, ELSSVM-GA, empirical mode decomposition (EMD)-LSSVM-GA, EMD-ELSSVM-GA, DEMD-LSSVM-GA, and DEMD-ELSSVM-GA. The proposed models are used in forecasting the water level of Klang River in Sri Muda, Malaysia. The behavior proposed models are investigated and compared based on several performance metrics such as root-mean-square error (RMSE) and squared correlation coefficient (R2). The results demonstrated that the DEMD-ELSSVM-GA model outperformed the other models based on the performance analysis in forecasting the water level with RMSE = 0.2536 m and R2 = 0.8596 for testing data that indicate the forecasting accuracy.
随着全球气候的变化,与水有关的灾害的发生频率也在上升,造成了巨大的经济损失和安全隐患。在洪水泛滥时,河流水位会出现不可预测的波动,带来相当大的噪声,给准确预测带来挑战。利用现有水位数据进行水位预测对洪水预报有重大贡献。增强型最小二乘支持向量机(ELSSVM)是通过整合额外的偏差误差控制项来实现的。本研究选择了最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)和经遗传算法(GA)优化的 ELSSVM,借助数据分解方法进行比较,以提高日水位预测精度。双经验模式分解(DEMD)将与 LSSVM 和 ELSSVM 相结合。因此,这些模型被命名为 LSSVM-GA、ELSSVM-GA、经验模式分解(EMD)-LSSVM-GA、EMD-ELSSVM-GA、DEMD-LSSVM-GA 和 DEMD-ELSSVM-GA。所提议的模型被用于预测马来西亚斯里慕达巴生河的水位。根据均方根误差(RMSE)和平方相关系数(R2)等性能指标对所提出的模型进行了研究和比较。结果表明,根据性能分析,DEMD-ELSSVM-GA 模型在预测水位方面优于其他模型,其 RMSE = 0.2536 米,测试数据的 R2 = 0.8596,表明了预测的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of metro rail extension on flood risks of Bangkok Metropolitan Authority outskirt due to climate and land use land cover changes 由于气候和土地利用、土地覆被的变化,地铁延伸对曼谷都会区外围地区洪水风险的影响
Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.691
Phattrasuda Phosri, Sitang Pilailar, S. Chittaladakorn
The expansion of Bangkok Metropolitan, driven by economic growth, includes extending metro systems.These changes, alongside a denser population and higher waste generation, have compromised drainage efficiency, amplifying flood vulnerability. Focused on the Pink Line's 34.5-km stretch from Khaerai intersection to Minburi, this study aims to evaluate the Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) near the metro line, identify critical factors influencing vulnerability, and propose mitigation strategies. The analysis divided the study area into five distinct zones based on area characteristics, then evaluated the FVI according to existing conditions of population density (PO), drainage efficiency (DE), impervious ratio (IR), garbage management (GB), and pond area ratio (PA). It was found that the FVI values ranged from 0.41 to 0.55, and the sensitivity analysis indicated Lat Pha Khao and Ramindra km.4 stations have minor FVI impact due to DE and IR. Conversely, improvements in PA and GB reduced the FVI at Khubon and Eastern Ring Road stations. Consistent FVI is observed with PA and IR enhancements but fluctuates with GB and DE changes. At the Minburi Market Station, the increased IR has a minor FVI impact, while enhanced DE and PA significantly lower the FVI.The degree of factor sensitivity is advantageous for planning local mitigation strategies.
在经济增长的推动下,曼谷大都市不断扩大,其中包括地铁系统的延伸。这些变化,加上人口密集和废物产生量增加,影响了排水效率,加剧了洪水的脆弱性。本研究以粉红线从 Khaerai 十字路口到 Minburi 的 34.5 公里路段为重点,旨在评估地铁线附近的洪水脆弱性指数 (FVI),确定影响脆弱性的关键因素,并提出缓解策略。分析根据区域特征将研究区域划分为五个不同的区域,然后根据人口密度 (PO)、排水效率 (DE)、不透水率 (IR)、垃圾管理 (GB) 和池塘面积比 (PA) 等现有条件评估洪水脆弱性指数。敏感性分析表明,由于 DE 和 IR 的影响,Pha Khao 站和 Ramindra km.4 站对 FVI 的影响较小。相反,PA 和 GB 的改善降低了 Khubon 站和东环路站的 FVI 值。PA 和 IR 增强后,FVI 保持一致,但 GB 和 DE 变化后,FVI 有所波动。在 Minburi Market 站,IR 的增加对 FVI 的影响较小,而 DE 和 PA 的增加则显著降低了 FVI。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the effects of climate and land-use change on flood recurrence in Kokcha River, Afghanistan 评估气候和土地使用变化对阿富汗科克查河洪水复发的影响
Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.043
Hedayatullah Shams, Asif Khan, Kashif Haleem, Saqib Mahmood
This study critically assesses the combined effects of climate and land-use change on flood recurrence in the Kokcha River, Afghanistan, spanning the period from 2010 to 2021 and projecting forward to 2088–2099. Through the application of a bias-corrected model, we achieved high accuracy in temperature and precipitation simulations, with notable NSE values of 0.9 and 0.69, and R2 values of 0.92 and 0.78, respectively. Future streamflow simulations under different scenarios highlight climate change as the major driver influencing flood recurrence in the Kokcha River, contributing to 101.1% of the total variation, while land-use change has a minimal contribution of −1.1%. Our analysis of precipitation, average temperature, and streamflow data reveals significant patterns and changes, with future projections indicating a gradual decline in precipitation levels, mean temperature, and streamflow. Flood frequency analysis for return periods of 10, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, considering different scenarios, underscores the likelihood of floods of varying magnitudes. Notably, the highest streamflow spikes under both scenarios highlight the impact of futuristic air temperature and precipitation on flood recurrence. The study advocates prioritizing climate change adaptation and resilient land-use strategies to ensure sustainable water resource management, emphasizing the mitigation of potential flood risks.
本研究批判性地评估了气候和土地利用变化对阿富汗科克查河洪水复发的综合影响,时间跨度为 2010 年至 2021 年,并预测到 2088 年至 2099 年。通过应用偏差校正模型,我们实现了温度和降水模拟的高精度,显著的 NSE 值分别为 0.9 和 0.69,R2 值分别为 0.92 和 0.78。不同情景下的未来溪流模拟结果表明,气候变化是影响沱沱河洪水复发的主要因素,占总变化的 101.1%,而土地利用变化的影响很小,仅占-1.1%。我们对降水量、平均气温和溪流数据的分析揭示了显著的模式和变化,未来预测显示降水量、平均气温和溪流将逐渐下降。考虑到不同的情况,我们对 10 年、50 年、100 年、200 年和 500 年重现期的洪水频率进行了分析,结果表明可能会发生不同规模的洪水。值得注意的是,两种情景下的最高溪流峰值凸显了未来气温和降水对洪水复发的影响。该研究主张优先考虑适应气候变化和具有弹性的土地利用战略,以确保可持续的水资源管理,同时强调减轻潜在的洪水风险。
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引用次数: 0
Downscaling of wind fields on the east coast of India using deep convolutional neural networks and their applications in storm surge computations 利用深度卷积神经网络对印度东海岸风场进行降尺度处理及其在风暴潮计算中的应用
Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.507
S. S. Kolukula, P. L. N. Murty, Balaji Baduru, D. Sharath, Francis P. A.
Downscaling is reconstructing data from low-resolution to high-resolution, capturing local effects and magnitudes. Widely employed methods for downscaling are dynamic and statistical methods with pros and cons. With ample data, ML and DL techniques can be employed to learn the mapping from low-resolution to high-resolution. The current article investigates convolutional neural network capabilities for the downscaling of winds. The speed and direction of the wind are guided by a complex relation among pressure, Coriolis force, friction, and temperature, which leads to highly nonlinear wind patterns and poses a significant challenge for downscaling. The problem can be formulated as a super-resolution technique called a super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) for data reconstruction. Few variations of SRCNN are studied for wind downscaling. Six years of ECMWF wind datasets along the east coast of India are used in the current study and are downscaled up to four times. Downscaled winds provide better results than traditional interpolation methods. Simulations for an extreme event are conducted with SRCNN downscaled winds and are compared against interpolation methods and original data. The numerical simulation results show that DL-based methods provide results closer to the ground truth than the interpolation methods.
降尺度是将数据从低分辨率重建到高分辨率,捕捉局部效应和幅度。常用的降尺度方法有动态方法和统计方法,各有利弊。在数据充足的情况下,可以采用 ML 和 DL 技术来学习从低分辨率到高分辨率的映射。本文研究了卷积神经网络在风力降尺度方面的能力。风速和风向受压力、科里奥利力、摩擦力和温度之间复杂关系的引导,这导致了高度非线性的风模式,并对降尺度提出了巨大挑战。该问题可表述为一种超分辨率技术,即用于数据重建的超分辨率卷积神经网络(SRCNN)。针对风力降尺度的 SRCNN 变体研究很少。目前的研究使用了印度东海岸六年的 ECMWF 风数据集,并对其进行了四次降尺度处理。与传统的插值方法相比,降尺度风能提供更好的结果。利用 SRCNN 降尺度风对极端事件进行了模拟,并与插值法和原始数据进行了比较。数值模拟结果表明,基于 DL 的方法比插值方法提供的结果更接近地面实况。
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引用次数: 0
Deep learning modeling framework for multi-resolution streamflow generation 多分辨率溪流生成的深度学习建模框架
Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.706
Fernanda Custodio Pereira do Carmo, Jeenu John, L. Sushama, Muhammad Naveed Khaliq
Generating continuous streamflow information through integrated climate-hydrology modeling at fine spatial scales of the order of a few kilometers is often challenged by computational costs associated with running high-resolution (HR) climate models. To address this challenge, the present study explores deep learning approaches to generate HR streamflow information from that at low resolution (LR), based on runoff generated by climate models. To this end, two sets of daily streamflow simulations spanning 10 years (2011–2020), at LR (50 km) and HR (5 km), for the Ottawa River basin in Canada are employed. The proposed deep learning model is trained using upscaled features derived from LR streamflow simulation for the 2011–2018 period as input and the corresponding HR streamflow simulation as the target; data for 2019 are used for validation. The model estimates for the year 2020, when compared with unseen HR data for the same year, suggest good performance, with differences in monthly mean values for different accumulation area categories in the −0.7–5% range and correlation coefficients for streamflow values for the same accumulation area categories in the 0.92–0.96 range. The developed framework can be ported to other watersheds for generating similar information, which is often required in climate change adaptation studies.
在几公里的精细空间尺度上,通过气候-水文综合建模生成连续的溪流信息,往往会受到运行高分辨率(HR)气候模型的计算成本的挑战。为了应对这一挑战,本研究探索了深度学习方法,以便根据气候模型生成的径流,从低分辨率(LR)信息生成高分辨率(HR)信息。为此,本研究采用了加拿大渥太华河流域低分辨率(50 千米)和高分辨率(5 千米)下的两组跨度为 10 年(2011-2020 年)的每日流量模拟数据。所提议的深度学习模型使用 2011-2018 年期间 LR 流量模拟的放大特征作为输入,并使用相应的 HR 流量模拟作为目标;2019 年的数据用于验证。与同年未见的 HR 数据相比,2020 年的模型估算结果表明性能良好,不同蓄积区类别的月平均值差异在-0.7%-5%之间,同一蓄积区类别的流量值相关系数在 0.92-0.96 之间。开发的框架可移植到其他流域,以生成气候变化适应研究中经常需要的类似信息。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of microbial water treatment by direct solar radiation disinfection approach 采用太阳直接辐射消毒法对微生物水处理进行评估
Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.013
Firaol Bedada Kopesa, Miliyon Dida Feye, Ashenafi Dechasa, Mezgebu Game Worku, Oftau Sorsa
The solar sterilization treatment innovation method can be implemented within households to address water pollution, especially those contaminants caused by microorganisms that may lead to waterborne illnesses. During review, water sources in the local area were assessed for turbidity and microbial quality. It was found that river water had turbidity levels of less than 30 NTU (Nephelometric Turbidity Units) during the dry season and typically up to 50 NTU during the wet season. This review aimed to understand the impact of these findings on the local area and its technological context. This study researched the utilization of sun-based radiation to clean the microbial mass tracked down in untreated water. Temperature and length of the openness are the two normal factors that were distinguished. The first water with a microbial heap of 40–55 (CFU) was presented to solar radiation at a temperature of above 44.5 °C outcome 0 (CFU) at the openness season of 6 h. The size and kind of materials utilized for this process were PET bottles of 1.5 L capacity with a half-dark tone. The factual examination at a 95% certainty information stretch has a p-value of <0.0001.
太阳能杀菌处理创新方法可在家庭中实施,以解决水污染问题,尤其是那些由微生物引起的、可能导致水传播疾病的污染物。在审查期间,对当地水源的浑浊度和微生物质量进行了评估。结果发现,在旱季,河水的浊度低于 30 NTU(奈米浊度单位),而在雨季,河水的浊度通常高达 50 NTU。本综述旨在了解这些发现对当地及其技术背景的影响。这项研究探讨了如何利用太阳辐射来净化未经处理的水中的微生物。温度和开放时间是两个不同的正常因素。首先将微生物量为 40-55 (CFU) 的水置于温度高于 44.5 °C 的太阳辐射下,结果为 0 (CFU),开放时间为 6 小时。在 95% 的确定性信息范围内进行的事实检验的 P 值小于 0.0001。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental investigation of the efficiency of stone revetment for different temporal variations with the static water condition 静水条件下不同时间变化的石质护岸效率实验研究
Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2024.126
Mohsin Jamal, Supia Khatun, Shivendra Jha, Darshan Mehta, Sudhanshu Dixit, Vijendra Kumar, Deepak Kumar Tiwari
The objective of this study is to determine the optimum size of stone revetment for different water standing durations and critical drawdown rates for 80% height of flood. The model bank was constructed using soil sourced from the Parlalpur ferry ghat of the Ganga River in Kaliachak, West Bengal, with a field density of 1.5 g/cc achieved by maintaining a 10% moisture content (MC) in the model bank soil. The model river bank was prepared considering Froude (F) similitude having a distorted depth scale of 1/20 and a linear scale of 1/200. In this study, effective stone sizes (D10) – 2.3, 3.22, 4.58, 6.31, and 8.84 mm – were used. These stone sizes were investigated in conjunction with three water standing durations: 15, 30, and 45 min. The bank slope was prepared at 1V:1.5H, and a drawdown ratio of 80% was maintained. The effectiveness of stone revetment size was analysed in terms of the percentage loss of stone revetment and the percentage loss of the model bank's cross-sectional area. The outcomes of this study indicate that the 6.31 mm stone size exhibits optimal performance.
本研究的目的是确定不同滞水持续时间和 80% 洪水高度临界缩减率下石质护岸的最佳尺寸。模型河岸的土壤取自西孟加拉邦卡利亚查克的恒河 Parlalpur 渡口,现场密度为 1.5 g/cc,模型河岸土壤的含水量 (MC) 保持在 10%。模型河岸是根据弗劳德(F)模拟法制作的,其扭曲深度尺度为 1/20,线性尺度为 1/200。本研究使用的有效石块尺寸(D10)分别为 2.3、3.22、4.58、6.31 和 8.84 毫米。这些石块尺寸与三种积水持续时间一起进行了研究:15、30 和 45 分钟。堤岸坡度为 1V:1.5H,缩水率保持在 80%。根据石头护岸的损失百分比和模型堤岸横截面积的损失百分比分析了石头护岸尺寸的有效性。研究结果表明,6.31 毫米的石块具有最佳性能。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Water and Climate Change
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