Wenxian Guo, Gaozhen Wang, Yinchu Ma, Fengtian Hong, Lintong Huang, Huan Yang, Xuyang Jiao, N. He, Hongxiang Wang
Ecological flow is a key element in maintaining the biodiversity of a basin's aquatic ecosystem. This study quantifies the degree of hydrological regime alteration in the Jialing River and the contributions of various driving factors using the indicators of hydrologic alteration and range of variability approach (IHA-RVA), the river impact method (RI), and the elasticity coefficient method based on long-term hydro-meteorological data. Cross-wavelet analysis is used to reveal the periodicity and coherence of runoff and driving factors. Additionally, the improved Q90 method presents a more effective annual ecological flow process. The results show that the overall hydrological regime in the Jialing River has undergone a moderate change, with RVA and RI values of 45.02% and 0.66. Human activities contribute 54.68% to the changes in streamflow. Streamflow has an extremely significant correlation with precipitation and aridity index (Φ). Approximately 85% of the wavelet cone of influence (COI) area, tested at a 95% confidence level, falls within the region. The study also found that the ecological flow obtained through the improved Q90 method is more conducive to the healthy development of the river ecosystem in the Jialing River. These findings can provide some assistance for aquatic ecosystem restoration in the Jialing River.
{"title":"Evaluation of hydrological regime alteration and ecological flow processes in the changing environment of the Jialing River, China","authors":"Wenxian Guo, Gaozhen Wang, Yinchu Ma, Fengtian Hong, Lintong Huang, Huan Yang, Xuyang Jiao, N. He, Hongxiang Wang","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.402","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 Ecological flow is a key element in maintaining the biodiversity of a basin's aquatic ecosystem. This study quantifies the degree of hydrological regime alteration in the Jialing River and the contributions of various driving factors using the indicators of hydrologic alteration and range of variability approach (IHA-RVA), the river impact method (RI), and the elasticity coefficient method based on long-term hydro-meteorological data. Cross-wavelet analysis is used to reveal the periodicity and coherence of runoff and driving factors. Additionally, the improved Q90 method presents a more effective annual ecological flow process. The results show that the overall hydrological regime in the Jialing River has undergone a moderate change, with RVA and RI values of 45.02% and 0.66. Human activities contribute 54.68% to the changes in streamflow. Streamflow has an extremely significant correlation with precipitation and aridity index (Φ). Approximately 85% of the wavelet cone of influence (COI) area, tested at a 95% confidence level, falls within the region. The study also found that the ecological flow obtained through the improved Q90 method is more conducive to the healthy development of the river ecosystem in the Jialing River. These findings can provide some assistance for aquatic ecosystem restoration in the Jialing River.","PeriodicalId":506949,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"110 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140089616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maryam Masoumi, Amin Sarang, M. Ardestani, Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan
Urban river flooding is a serious threat to cities that have altered their river buffer zones due to urbanization and climate change. This study aims to estimate the peak flow of urban rivers by considering the effects of climate change and debris flow on flood hazard. A novel approach is proposed that integrates hydrological, sedimentological, and hydraulic method and models to account for the influence of sediment volume, woody debris, and culvert blockage on peak flow estimation and flow parameters. The approach is applied to the Farahzad River basin in Tehran, Iran, using future data downscaled from a global climate model under the RCP8.5 scenario for 50- and 100-year return periods. The results show a significant increase in the peak flood discharge by nearly 3.2 times, the flood zone by 10–20%, the flood velocity by 15–30%, and the inundation depth by 10–40% due to climate change and debris flow scenarios. The study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple factors in estimating the peak flow of urban rivers and provides a useful tool for urban flood risk management.
{"title":"Estimating peak flow of Farahzad River in Tehran under climate change and debris flow scenarios: A novel approach and its implications for urban flood hazard mapping","authors":"Maryam Masoumi, Amin Sarang, M. Ardestani, Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.615","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Urban river flooding is a serious threat to cities that have altered their river buffer zones due to urbanization and climate change. This study aims to estimate the peak flow of urban rivers by considering the effects of climate change and debris flow on flood hazard. A novel approach is proposed that integrates hydrological, sedimentological, and hydraulic method and models to account for the influence of sediment volume, woody debris, and culvert blockage on peak flow estimation and flow parameters. The approach is applied to the Farahzad River basin in Tehran, Iran, using future data downscaled from a global climate model under the RCP8.5 scenario for 50- and 100-year return periods. The results show a significant increase in the peak flood discharge by nearly 3.2 times, the flood zone by 10–20%, the flood velocity by 15–30%, and the inundation depth by 10–40% due to climate change and debris flow scenarios. The study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple factors in estimating the peak flow of urban rivers and provides a useful tool for urban flood risk management.","PeriodicalId":506949,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"44 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139960322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Facing the increasing uncertain climate change, people are paying more and more attention to climate justice in urbanization. Climate change has intensified the vulnerability of cities and may have a greater impact on vulnerable groups. Therefore, this research constructed a framework to explore the coupling relationship between flood risk and population vulnerability from the perspective of climate justice. In this framework, the indicators of population vulnerability and population resilience were built. Then, the flood risk was identified through the relationship of inundation potential. Furthermore, the coupling coordination degree model was used to calculate the coupling between population vulnerability and flood risk, and the coupling between population resilience and flood risk. Finally, the driving factors of urbanization contributing to such coupling were analyzed through the Tobit model. The specific conclusions are (i) the study area shows vulnerable groups more likely to live in areas with high flood risk, and (ii) vulnerable groups are susceptible to the impact of population density and development intensity, while relatively wealthy groups are susceptible to the impact of the level of economic development and urban built environment. The results contribute to a better understanding of spatial inequalities in flood risk and population vulnerability, and climate injustice.
{"title":"Discussion on the coupling relationship between flood risk and population vulnerability from climate justice","authors":"Zhifa Jiang, Q. Su, Yuepeng Cui","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.480","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 Facing the increasing uncertain climate change, people are paying more and more attention to climate justice in urbanization. Climate change has intensified the vulnerability of cities and may have a greater impact on vulnerable groups. Therefore, this research constructed a framework to explore the coupling relationship between flood risk and population vulnerability from the perspective of climate justice. In this framework, the indicators of population vulnerability and population resilience were built. Then, the flood risk was identified through the relationship of inundation potential. Furthermore, the coupling coordination degree model was used to calculate the coupling between population vulnerability and flood risk, and the coupling between population resilience and flood risk. Finally, the driving factors of urbanization contributing to such coupling were analyzed through the Tobit model. The specific conclusions are (i) the study area shows vulnerable groups more likely to live in areas with high flood risk, and (ii) vulnerable groups are susceptible to the impact of population density and development intensity, while relatively wealthy groups are susceptible to the impact of the level of economic development and urban built environment. The results contribute to a better understanding of spatial inequalities in flood risk and population vulnerability, and climate injustice.","PeriodicalId":506949,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"38 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139960532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Layla Lambiasi, Daniel Ddiba, Kim Andersson, Masud Parvage, S. Dickin
There is growing awareness of the contribution of sanitation systems to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, and hence to climate change. However, there is a lack of comprehensive insight into emission sources dis-aggregated across the entire sanitation chain. This study presents a detailed review and analysis of emission sources from both sewer-based and non-sewered sanitation systems, with a focus on both fugitive emissions and those related to system operation. Our analysis highlights evidence gaps in several areas in the literature: quantifying emissions from non-sewered sanitation systems, with particular gaps related to technologies like biogas toilets and composting toilets; oversight of contextual factors such as environmental conditions and infrastructure operational status in GHG accounting; a dearth of holistic GHG emission studies across the entire sanitation chain comparable to those in the solid waste management sector; and inconsistencies in GHG measurement methods. By pinpointing these gaps, this review provides a robust reference for planning climate mitigation strategies for sanitation and wastewater management systems, emphasizes the urgent need for the incorporation of climate-smart solutions in the sector e.g. in the design of new and retrofitted infrastructure, and aims to bridge the sustainable development goals related to sanitation and climate action.
{"title":"Greenhouse gas emissions from sanitation and wastewater management systems: a review","authors":"Layla Lambiasi, Daniel Ddiba, Kim Andersson, Masud Parvage, S. Dickin","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.603","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 There is growing awareness of the contribution of sanitation systems to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, and hence to climate change. However, there is a lack of comprehensive insight into emission sources dis-aggregated across the entire sanitation chain. This study presents a detailed review and analysis of emission sources from both sewer-based and non-sewered sanitation systems, with a focus on both fugitive emissions and those related to system operation. Our analysis highlights evidence gaps in several areas in the literature: quantifying emissions from non-sewered sanitation systems, with particular gaps related to technologies like biogas toilets and composting toilets; oversight of contextual factors such as environmental conditions and infrastructure operational status in GHG accounting; a dearth of holistic GHG emission studies across the entire sanitation chain comparable to those in the solid waste management sector; and inconsistencies in GHG measurement methods. By pinpointing these gaps, this review provides a robust reference for planning climate mitigation strategies for sanitation and wastewater management systems, emphasizes the urgent need for the incorporation of climate-smart solutions in the sector e.g. in the design of new and retrofitted infrastructure, and aims to bridge the sustainable development goals related to sanitation and climate action.","PeriodicalId":506949,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"33 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139962096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, the temporal variability of monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperature data of Palu station were analyzed. In addition to statistical analysis such as Mann–Kendall (MK) and SR, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), innovative trend analysis (ITA), and combination of Wilcoxon test and scatter diagram (CWTSD) methods were used in the study. A total of 24 trend analyses (for 12 months of precipitation and temperature data) were conducted for each method used for temperature and precipitation parameters in the study. Looking at the results of these methods, a decreasing trend was detected only in December for precipitation data, common to all methods. For temperature data, an increasing trend was detected only in February and March. With the application of the IPTA, an increasing trend in some months and a decreasing trend in other months were detected for the two parameters. The Wilcoxon test exhibits significant consistency with the MK and SR in terms of the statistical trend, according to the examination of temperature and precipitation data using the CWTSD approach, which is relatively recent. Furthermore, the visual trend analysis demonstrates high consistency between the NO-ITA and Şen-ITA approaches.
{"title":"A comparison of the performance of different innovative trend assessment approaches for air temperature and precipitation data: an application to Elazığ Province (Turkey)","authors":"Ramazan Acar","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.685","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.685","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In this study, the temporal variability of monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperature data of Palu station were analyzed. In addition to statistical analysis such as Mann–Kendall (MK) and SR, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), innovative trend analysis (ITA), and combination of Wilcoxon test and scatter diagram (CWTSD) methods were used in the study. A total of 24 trend analyses (for 12 months of precipitation and temperature data) were conducted for each method used for temperature and precipitation parameters in the study. Looking at the results of these methods, a decreasing trend was detected only in December for precipitation data, common to all methods. For temperature data, an increasing trend was detected only in February and March. With the application of the IPTA, an increasing trend in some months and a decreasing trend in other months were detected for the two parameters. The Wilcoxon test exhibits significant consistency with the MK and SR in terms of the statistical trend, according to the examination of temperature and precipitation data using the CWTSD approach, which is relatively recent. Furthermore, the visual trend analysis demonstrates high consistency between the NO-ITA and Şen-ITA approaches.","PeriodicalId":506949,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"45 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139961606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study analyzes the variations in soil erosion rate in a tropical catchment in India using the empirical revised universal soil loss equation model integrated with climate change scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) included in the NEX Global Daily Downscaled Projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 dataset for shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 126 and SSP 585. A set of seven GCMs are initially selected. Based on their ability to simulate the rainfall for the current scenario, the PROMETHEE-II method is used to rank the GCMs and the top four best-performing models are used for further analysis. Soil erosion rates projected for the future climate scenarios are compared with the current scenario. In the near future and in the mid of the century, soil erosion rates under the SSP 126 scenario are projected to be higher than that under the SSP 585 scenario. The ensemble average soil erosion rate is projected to increase by 15.41–25.94% toward the end of the century for different emission scenarios, and the areas susceptible to high and very high soil erosion rates are projected to increase to 40.3%.
{"title":"Effect of climate change on soil erosion rate in a tropical Indian catchment","authors":"Anbazhagan M., Nanditha H. S., R. T. V.","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.547","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study analyzes the variations in soil erosion rate in a tropical catchment in India using the empirical revised universal soil loss equation model integrated with climate change scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) included in the NEX Global Daily Downscaled Projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 dataset for shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 126 and SSP 585. A set of seven GCMs are initially selected. Based on their ability to simulate the rainfall for the current scenario, the PROMETHEE-II method is used to rank the GCMs and the top four best-performing models are used for further analysis. Soil erosion rates projected for the future climate scenarios are compared with the current scenario. In the near future and in the mid of the century, soil erosion rates under the SSP 126 scenario are projected to be higher than that under the SSP 585 scenario. The ensemble average soil erosion rate is projected to increase by 15.41–25.94% toward the end of the century for different emission scenarios, and the areas susceptible to high and very high soil erosion rates are projected to increase to 40.3%.","PeriodicalId":506949,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"10 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139961054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to delve into the spatial modes of Turkish precipitation variability using a rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method and describe the resulting variability patterns in association with atmospheric and non-atmospheric influences. The varimax rotation of the EOF determines modes that are more localized in space than the conventional EOF modes. The primary modes of the annual, wet season, and dry season precipitation from 213 stations for the 1975–2021 period were extracted and described concerning atmospheric processes, prominent teleconnection patterns, orography, and continentality. The first three EOFs accounted for approximately 67 and 62% of the total variance in the annual and wet season precipitation series, respectively, whereas only 50% of the variance was captured by the first three EOFs for dry season precipitation. The spatial coherence of the highest negative and positive EOF1 loadings of the annual data was observed in the western, southern, and north-eastern regions. The contribution of atmospheric moisture advection in precipitation variability diminishes in summer, whereas the role of local land surface processes increases. Some regional teleconnection patterns, such as Arctic oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), also contributed to the annual variability in precipitation.
{"title":"Characterizing variability of spatial patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation of Turkey and identifying the probable driving factors including teleconnection patterns","authors":"Ali Ümran Kömüşçü, Mehmet Aksoy","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.665","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 This study aims to delve into the spatial modes of Turkish precipitation variability using a rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method and describe the resulting variability patterns in association with atmospheric and non-atmospheric influences. The varimax rotation of the EOF determines modes that are more localized in space than the conventional EOF modes. The primary modes of the annual, wet season, and dry season precipitation from 213 stations for the 1975–2021 period were extracted and described concerning atmospheric processes, prominent teleconnection patterns, orography, and continentality. The first three EOFs accounted for approximately 67 and 62% of the total variance in the annual and wet season precipitation series, respectively, whereas only 50% of the variance was captured by the first three EOFs for dry season precipitation. The spatial coherence of the highest negative and positive EOF1 loadings of the annual data was observed in the western, southern, and north-eastern regions. The contribution of atmospheric moisture advection in precipitation variability diminishes in summer, whereas the role of local land surface processes increases. Some regional teleconnection patterns, such as Arctic oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), also contributed to the annual variability in precipitation.","PeriodicalId":506949,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"9 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139960879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I. Leščešen, Biljana Basarin, D. Pavić, Manfred Mudelsee, P. Pekárová, Minučer Mesaroš
In this study, strong and extreme flood events were analysed based on long-term daily runoff records of winter and summer floods in the Danube River between 1876 and 2020, using the peak-over-threshold method. Based on the results, the following conclusions can be made: (1) There is a downward trend in strong winter floods, but it is not statistically significant. Additionally, there is an upward trend in summer floods, but it is not statistically significant. (2) There are statistically significant upward trends in extreme events for both the winter and summer seasons. The results have implications for flood protection and disaster management on the Danube River. Regulating assets in flood-prone areas is essential to minimise economic damage. Public awareness of increasing extreme summer floods is vital for prevention. This study suggests that effective flood risk analysis requires (i) a local to regional scale approach to account for spatial variability and (ii) advanced statistical tools for robust detection of climate extremes and estimating their occurrence rates.
{"title":"Are extreme floods in the Danube River getting more frequent?: a case study of the Bratislava station","authors":"I. Leščešen, Biljana Basarin, D. Pavić, Manfred Mudelsee, P. Pekárová, Minučer Mesaroš","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.587","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 In this study, strong and extreme flood events were analysed based on long-term daily runoff records of winter and summer floods in the Danube River between 1876 and 2020, using the peak-over-threshold method. Based on the results, the following conclusions can be made: (1) There is a downward trend in strong winter floods, but it is not statistically significant. Additionally, there is an upward trend in summer floods, but it is not statistically significant. (2) There are statistically significant upward trends in extreme events for both the winter and summer seasons. The results have implications for flood protection and disaster management on the Danube River. Regulating assets in flood-prone areas is essential to minimise economic damage. Public awareness of increasing extreme summer floods is vital for prevention. This study suggests that effective flood risk analysis requires (i) a local to regional scale approach to account for spatial variability and (ii) advanced statistical tools for robust detection of climate extremes and estimating their occurrence rates.","PeriodicalId":506949,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"21 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139962937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The impact of climate change on the water resource potential of the Gibe III watershed, Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia, was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and selected climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for future projection. Because the Omo-Gibe Basin in general and the Gibe III watershed in particular was the source of hydropower generation, more work toward updating knowledge of climate change impact on it is required so as to manage the sustained use of the water resource and prevent sedimentation of the reservoir. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) datasets of some general circulation models (GCMs) such as GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, CSIRO-MK3-6-0, NorESM1-M, and MIROC5 were downloaded for six stations. After calibrating and validating the Soil and WaterAassessment Tool (SWAT) model, the impact of climate change was simulated. Accordingly, the annual precipitation was expected to increase by 8.4 and 21.1% during 2050 and 2080, respectively; mean temperature was projected to increase by 1.85 and 2.8 °C in 2050 and 2080, respectively; the stream flow was expected to increase by 55.5 and 81% by 2050 and 2080, respectively, from the base period (1990–2017). The scenario of mean annual sediment yield would increase by 64.5 and 138% by 2050 and 2080, respectively. Therefore, actions toward reducing excess runoff production in the catchment and timely removal of sediment from the reservoir are required.
{"title":"Impact of climate change on water resource potential and sediment yield of the Gibe III watershed, Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia","authors":"A. Gebremichael, A. Kebede, Y. Woyessa","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.292","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 The impact of climate change on the water resource potential of the Gibe III watershed, Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia, was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and selected climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for future projection. Because the Omo-Gibe Basin in general and the Gibe III watershed in particular was the source of hydropower generation, more work toward updating knowledge of climate change impact on it is required so as to manage the sustained use of the water resource and prevent sedimentation of the reservoir. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) datasets of some general circulation models (GCMs) such as GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, CSIRO-MK3-6-0, NorESM1-M, and MIROC5 were downloaded for six stations. After calibrating and validating the Soil and WaterAassessment Tool (SWAT) model, the impact of climate change was simulated. Accordingly, the annual precipitation was expected to increase by 8.4 and 21.1% during 2050 and 2080, respectively; mean temperature was projected to increase by 1.85 and 2.8 °C in 2050 and 2080, respectively; the stream flow was expected to increase by 55.5 and 81% by 2050 and 2080, respectively, from the base period (1990–2017). The scenario of mean annual sediment yield would increase by 64.5 and 138% by 2050 and 2080, respectively. Therefore, actions toward reducing excess runoff production in the catchment and timely removal of sediment from the reservoir are required.","PeriodicalId":506949,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"19 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139963263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. A. Hamidi, Hector Bravo, Sandra L. McLellan, David Lorenz
Infrastructure renewal and public health efforts require prediction of climate change effects on the occurrence of pathogens in the Great Lakes' urban coastal waters. This paper presents an investigation that addressed the climate change effects on transport and the fate of bacteria in Milwaukee's urban coastal area. This investigation was part of a study on climate change risks and impacts that included downscaling of climate change data for meteorological stations around Lake Michigan, and implementation of a hydrologic model that predicts tributary flows and bacteria loads. A method to select scenarios appropriate to link watershed and lake transport processes is presented. For the watershed, the sensitivity of bacterial loads with respect to changes in spring-season precipitation and air temperature is critical, while for lake transport, the most important driver is the wind field. Watershed and lake processes are linked by using spring-season watershed loading in the simulation of coastal transport. Scenarios for hydrodynamic modeling were developed by selecting climate projections that yielded high-and-low percentile projected spring-season wind speed. The patterns of bacteria transport showed significant changes under climate change conditions, and the changes in fecal coliform concentration at critical locations were explained by changes in current vector fields.
{"title":"Modeling climate change effects on transport and fate of pathogens in an urban coastal area of Lake Michigan","authors":"S. A. Hamidi, Hector Bravo, Sandra L. McLellan, David Lorenz","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.605","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.605","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Infrastructure renewal and public health efforts require prediction of climate change effects on the occurrence of pathogens in the Great Lakes' urban coastal waters. This paper presents an investigation that addressed the climate change effects on transport and the fate of bacteria in Milwaukee's urban coastal area. This investigation was part of a study on climate change risks and impacts that included downscaling of climate change data for meteorological stations around Lake Michigan, and implementation of a hydrologic model that predicts tributary flows and bacteria loads. A method to select scenarios appropriate to link watershed and lake transport processes is presented. For the watershed, the sensitivity of bacterial loads with respect to changes in spring-season precipitation and air temperature is critical, while for lake transport, the most important driver is the wind field. Watershed and lake processes are linked by using spring-season watershed loading in the simulation of coastal transport. Scenarios for hydrodynamic modeling were developed by selecting climate projections that yielded high-and-low percentile projected spring-season wind speed. The patterns of bacteria transport showed significant changes under climate change conditions, and the changes in fecal coliform concentration at critical locations were explained by changes in current vector fields.","PeriodicalId":506949,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":"286 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139837820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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