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A quantitative comparison of two different models of minefield transit 两种不同雷场过境模式的定量比较
Mikel D Petty
Naval mines are used to cause damage and inflict casualties on ships and to deny access to mined areas. Two distinctly different Monte Carlo models of surface ships transiting minefields were implemented and compared. An analytic model represents mines abstractly as mine density within the minefield. It determines the probability of a ship encountering a mine as a ratio of the area of the ship’s track through the minefield, with width equal to the mines’ effective radius and the area of the minefield. A geometric model represents the ship’s track and the mines’ locations explicitly. It determines whether a ship encounters a mine using a calculation of the distance between a ship’s track and the mines’ locations. The two models’ results were quantitatively compared for multiple values of five experimental variables: minefield dimensions, mine density, mine placement method, ships per group, and ship transit procedure. Each model was executed for each combination of experimental variable values and their results were compared to determine whether the models produced comparable results. In addition, the effectiveness of two mine placement methods at disabling ships and two ship transit procedures at avoiding mines were also compared. All comparisons used statistical hypothesis tests.
海军水雷用于对舰船造成破坏和伤亡,并阻止舰船进入雷区。对水面舰艇通过雷场的两种截然不同的蒙特卡罗模型进行了实施和比较。分析模型将水雷抽象地表示为雷区内的水雷密度。它将船只遇到水雷的概率确定为船只通过雷场的航迹面积与水雷有效半径和雷场面积之比。几何模型明确表示了船只的航迹和水雷的位置。它通过计算船只航迹与水雷位置之间的距离来确定船只是否遇到水雷。针对五个实验变量的多个值,对两种模型的结果进行了定量比较:雷区尺寸、水雷密度、水雷布设方法、每组船只和船只过境程序。对每个实验变量值的组合执行每个模型,并对其结果进行比较,以确定模型是否产生了可比较的结果。此外,还比较了两种水雷布设方法在使船只失能方面的效果,以及两种船只通过程序在避开水雷方面的效果。所有比较均采用统计假设检验。
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引用次数: 0
Cutting edge technologies for future military applications: trends and challenges 未来军事应用的尖端技术:趋势与挑战
Michael Gargalakos
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引用次数: 0
Developing an IoT-enabled probabilistic model for quick identification of hidden radioactive materials in maritime port operations to strengthen global supply chain security 开发基于物联网的概率模型,快速识别海运港口作业中隐藏的放射性物质,加强全球供应链安全
S. Jakovlev, Tomas Eglynas, Mindaugas Jusis, Miroslav Voznak
Uncovering hidden radioactive materials continues to be a major hurdle in worldwide supply chains. Recent research has not adequately investigated practical Internet of Things (IoT)-based approaches for improving and implementing efficient data fusion techniques. Current systems often misuse resources, leading to security vulnerabilities in typical settings. Our research delves into the fundamental principles of detection using both single and multiple sensor configurations, adopting a probabilistic method for merging data. We introduce a model aimed at accelerating the detection of radiation emissions in actual port operations. The results highlight the model’s effectiveness in rapid identification and determine the best conditions for its application in scenarios involving stacked containers, whether they are on ships or positioned in storage areas.
发现隐藏的放射性材料仍然是全球供应链中的一大障碍。最近的研究尚未充分调查基于物联网(IoT)的实用方法,以改进和实施高效的数据融合技术。当前的系统经常滥用资源,导致典型环境下的安全漏洞。我们的研究深入探讨了使用单传感器和多传感器配置进行检测的基本原理,并采用概率方法进行数据融合。我们引入了一个模型,旨在加速检测实际港口作业中的辐射排放。研究结果凸显了该模型在快速识别方面的有效性,并确定了在涉及堆叠集装箱的情况下应用该模型的最佳条件,无论这些集装箱是在船上还是放置在仓储区。
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引用次数: 0
Statement of requirements on the accuracy of rocket CFD analysis using exterior ballistics for example rocket models 关于利用外部弹道对火箭模型进行 CFD 分析的准确性要求的说明
A. Baghiyan, H. Sargsyan, A. Grigoryan
In this paper, the problem of acceptable accuracy of a rocket’s aerodynamic characteristics obtained from CFD (computational fluid dynamics) analysis for defining its aerodynamic characteristics is considered from the point of view of exterior ballistics, particularly by the estimation of the rocket’s simulated flight range change caused by CFD errors. The results obtained in this paper allow stating the requirement on acceptable accuracy of defining the aerodynamic characteristics for developing new rockets through CFD analysis based on several examples, which can be propagated to other cases of rocket design and development. Using this study as a method, the CFD engineers who work on rocket design and development can estimate the accepted accuracy margin of their CFD analysis and research solutions to get reliable results for the expected flight characteristics of the rocket.
本文从外部弹道学的角度,特别是通过对 CFD 误差引起的火箭模拟飞行距离变化的估计,研究了通过 CFD(计算流体动力学)分析获得的火箭气动特性的可接受精度问题。本文所获得的结果可以根据几个例子说明在开发新火箭时通过 CFD 分析确定气动特性的可接受精度要求,并可推广到火箭设计和开发的其他情况。利用这项研究作为一种方法,从事火箭设计和开发的 CFD 工程师可以估算出其 CFD 分析和研究方案的可接受精度范围,从而获得火箭预期飞行特性的可靠结果。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing military medical evacuation dispatching with armed escort management: comparing model-based reinforcement learning approaches 利用武装护送管理加强军事医疗后送调度:比较基于模型的强化学习方法
Andrew G Gelbard, Phillip R. Jenkins, Matthew J. Robbins
The military medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) dispatching problem involves determining optimal policies for evacuating combat casualties to maximize patient survivability during military operations. This study explores a variation of the MEDEVAC dispatching problem, focusing on controlling armed escorts using a Markov decision process (MDP) model and model-based reinforcement learning (RL) approaches. A discounted, continuous-time MDP model over an infinite horizon is developed to maximize the expected total discounted reward of the system. Two model-based RL solution approaches are proposed: one utilizing semi-gradient descent Q-learning and another employing semi-gradient descent SARSA. A computational example, set in western and central Africa during contingency operations, assesses the performance of the RL-generated policies against the myopic policy, which military medical planners currently employ. Solution quality is derived from expected response time, a crucial determinant of life-saving potential in MEDEVAC operations. The research also explores sensitivity analysis and excursion scenarios to evaluate the RL-generated policies further. By explicitly controlling armed escort assets, dispatching authorities can better manage the location and allocation of these resources throughout combat operations. The findings of this study have the potential to inform military medical planning, operations, and tactics, ultimately leading to improved MEDEVAC system performance and higher patient survivability rates.
军事医疗后送(MEDEVAC)调度问题涉及在军事行动中确定后送作战伤员的最佳策略,以最大限度地提高病人的存活率。本研究探讨了 MEDEVAC 调度问题的一个变种,重点是使用马尔可夫决策过程 (MDP) 模型和基于模型的强化学习 (RL) 方法控制武装护送。为了使系统的预期总贴现回报最大化,我们建立了一个无限视距的连续时间贴现 MDP 模型。提出了两种基于模型的 RL 解决方法:一种是利用半梯度下降 Q-learning 方法,另一种是利用半梯度下降 SARSA 方法。在应急行动期间,以非洲西部和中部为背景的一个计算实例评估了 RL 生成的策略与军事医疗规划人员目前采用的近视策略的性能对比。解决方案的质量来自预期响应时间,这是 MEDEVAC 行动中挽救生命潜力的关键决定因素。研究还探讨了敏感性分析和偏离情景,以进一步评估 RL 生成的策略。通过明确控制武装护送资产,调度当局可以在整个作战行动中更好地管理这些资源的位置和分配。本研究的结果有可能为军事医疗规划、行动和战术提供参考,最终提高医疗后送系统的性能和病人存活率。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the US foreign assistance activities impact on violent conflicts 评估美国对外援助活动对暴力冲突的影响
Daniel F Feze, Mark A Gallagher
The Global Fragility Act, H.R.2116 116th Congress, directs the Department of State to establish an interagency initiative to stabilize conflict-affected areas and prevent violence globally. We propose and demonstrate an approach to evaluate the success of funding these initiatives. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has identified deteriorating economies, weak, or illegitimate political institutions, and competition over natural resources as causes of violence, extremism, and instability. The agency prioritizes mitigating the causes and consequences of violent conflicts, instability, and extremism and funds corresponding programs. Focused on military aid, we quantitatively assess these programs effectiveness at preventing or deescalating conflicts during 2010 to 2020. Our statistical analysis shows the funds during that period did not have an immediate impact on countries prone to violence. However, cumulative long-term relationships exist between some funds and the global conflict levels. As the total amount of 5 years cumulative Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) implemented funds increases, the total number of countries not-in-conflict increases while the total number of the most violent countries decreases. Those funds also correlate to the decline in total conflict levels during that timeframe. This quantitative approach assesses the aggregate effectiveness of aid across various countries.
第 116 届国会通过的《全球脆弱性法案》(H.R.2116)指示国务院制定一项机构间倡议,在全球范围内稳定受冲突影响的地区并预防暴力。我们提出并展示了一种方法来评估资助这些计划的成功与否。美国国际开发署(USAID)认为,经济恶化、政治体制薄弱或不合法以及对自然资源的争夺是导致暴力、极端主义和不稳定的原因。该机构优先考虑减轻暴力冲突、不稳定和极端主义的原因和后果,并资助相应的项目。以军事援助为重点,我们对 2010 年至 2020 年期间这些计划在预防或缓和冲突方面的有效性进行了定量评估。我们的统计分析表明,这一时期的资金并未对暴力频发的国家产生立竿见影的影响。但是,一些基金与全球冲突水平之间存在长期累积关系。随着国防安全合作局(DSCA)实施的 5 年累计资金总额的增加,非冲突国家的总数增加,而最暴力国家的总数减少。这些资金也与该时间段内冲突总数的下降相关。这种定量方法评估了援助在不同国家的总体效果。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of terminal ballistics parameters for several 7.62×51 mm projectiles using numerical simulations 利用数值模拟估算几种 7.62×51 毫米射弹的末端弹道参数
Catovic Alan
Six widely used 7.62 ×51 mm projectile types (M80, M61, P80/1, M80A1, M1158, and M993) were subjected to the analysis in this paper. Numerical simulations (Ansys Autodyn) of projectile impacts on hard steel targets were performed as part of this analysis. Projectiles had the same impact velocity (800 m/s). This allowed evaluation of the projectile’s design and material’s effect on its performance against a hard steel target. Validation of the numerical model and used materials was first performed, using available experimental data. A short description and Computer-Aided Design (CAD) model of projectiles is also given. Comparing the M1158 projectile to other AP projectiles taken into consideration, it was concluded that the former had a much deeper penetration depth into a hard steel target (Armox 500T). The projectile’s penetrating capability is greatly impacted by the material selection used for its component parts. Assuming all other factors remain constant, penetrators with higher density and harderness can achieve deeper penetration. Under the same conditions, an increase in penetrator length results in an increase in penetration depth. The absence of a gilding metal jacket in the projectile’s frontal ogive section can decrease energy required to remove the jacket during the penetration, hence increasing the projectile’s penetration capabilities.
本文对六种广泛使用的 7.62 ×51 毫米弹丸(M80、M61、P80/1、M80A1、M1158 和 M993)进行了分析。作为分析的一部分,还对射弹撞击硬钢目标的情况进行了数值模拟(Ansys Autodyn)。弹丸的撞击速度相同(800 米/秒)。这样就可以评估弹丸的设计和材料对其撞击硬钢目标性能的影响。首先利用现有的实验数据对数值模型和所用材料进行了验证。此外,还简要介绍了弹丸和计算机辅助设计(CAD)模型。将 M1158 射弹与其他 AP 射弹进行比较后得出的结论是,前者对硬质钢靶(Armox 500T)的穿透深度更大。弹丸的穿透能力在很大程度上受到其部件材料选择的影响。假设所有其他因素保持不变,密度和硬度较高的穿甲弹可以达到更深的穿透深度。在相同条件下,穿甲弹长度的增加会导致穿透深度的增加。如果穿甲弹正面椭圆形部分没有镀金金属护套,则可减少穿透过程中去除护套所需的能量,从而提高穿甲弹的穿透能力。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis comparison model of ROC-TOPSIS, ROC-WP, and ROC-Electre methods for supporting the funding decision to micro-enterprises Indonesia ROC-TOPSIS 法、ROC-WP 法和 ROC-Electre 法在支持印度尼西亚微型企业融资决策方面的分析比较模型
Noerul Hanin, Hendri Purwanto
Micro-business is an essential business unit that supports the economies of countries in the world, including Indonesia. Unfortunately, micro-entrepreneurs often find difficulties to obtain financial assistance from government to develop their businesses. In Indonesia, the smallest number of micro industries can be found in West Papua Province, where one of the underdeveloped areas in the province is the Sorong City. Therefore, a study was conducted to determine the application of decision support methods in selecting micro-enterprises in Sorong that are eligible for business funding. The decision support method chosen is the collaboration between the Rank-Order Centroid (ROC) method, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Weight Product (WP), and Elimination Et Choix Traduisant la Realite (Electre). With the analysis conducted on 10 samples of micro-enterprises in Sorong City, it was found that the micro-enterprises that were most eligible to receive assistance is Raya Helm based on ROC-TOPSIS, ROC-WP, and ROC-Electre. Then, sensitivity analysis results the ROC-Electre as the best method with the highest sensitivity percentage. Therefore, the implementation of these methods for supporting the funding decision to micro-enterprises in Sorong was successfully carried out with the output being the micro-enterprise rating results.
微型企业是支持包括印度尼西亚在内的世界各国经济的重要商业单位。遗憾的是,微型企业家往往很难从政府获得资金援助来发展自己的企业。在印度尼西亚,西巴布亚省的微型企业数量最少,该省的欠发达地区之一就是索龙市。因此,我们开展了一项研究,以确定决策支持方法在选择符合商业资助条件的索龙市微型企业中的应用。所选择的决策支持方法是排名-排序中心法(ROC)、与理想解决方案相似的排序偏好技术(TOPSIS)、权重乘积(WP)和现实消除与选择(Electre)之间的协作。通过对索龙市的 10 个微型企业样本进行分析,根据 ROC-TOPSIS、ROC-WP 和 ROC-Electre 发现,最有资格获得援助的微型企业是拉亚舵。然后,灵敏度分析结果表明,ROC-Electre 是灵敏度百分比最高的最佳方法。因此,采用这些方法来支持索龙微型企业的资助决策是成功的,其输出结果就是微型企业的评级结果。
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引用次数: 0
Using combat simulations to determine tactical responses to new technologies on the battlefield 利用战斗模拟确定战场上对新技术的战术反应
Vikram Mittal, James E Fenn
Although military technology can provide a tactical edge in combat, its efficacy often diminishes once the opposing force adapts. To address this issue, the study proposes a systematic approach to predict, model, and quantify the responses of soldiers on the battlefield to new technology. The method uses virtual simulations to identify changes in behavior and tactics, which are then modeled in constructive simulations to quantify lethality, survivability, and mission effectiveness. The approach is demonstrated through a case study on grenade-equipped quadcopters using the Infantry Warrior Simulation, a constructive simulation, and Virtual Battlespace 3.0, a virtual simulation. The study found that this tactic was initially successful at disrupting operations of soldiers. However, after seven iterations, the soldiers implemented changes in their tactics to minimize the effects of the drone. This process provides insight into better understanding the dynamic, responsive nature of the modern battlefield.
尽管军事技术可以在战斗中提供战术优势,但一旦对方部队做出调整,其功效往往会减弱。为解决这一问题,本研究提出了一种系统方法,用于预测、模拟和量化战场上士兵对新技术的反应。该方法利用虚拟仿真来确定行为和战术的变化,然后在建设性仿真中进行建模,以量化杀伤力、生存能力和任务效果。该方法通过使用 "步兵战士模拟"(一种建设性模拟)和 "虚拟战斗空间 3.0"(一种虚拟模拟)对配备手榴弹的四旋翼飞行器进行案例研究来演示。研究发现,这一战术最初成功地干扰了士兵的行动。然而,经过七次反复之后,士兵们改变了战术,将无人机的影响降到了最低。这一过程为更好地理解现代战场的动态响应特性提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring operational cognitive readiness of military personnel using Joint Theater Level Simulation System (JTLS) 利用联合战区级模拟系统(JTLS)衡量军事人员的作战认知准备状态
Hasmady Alim, Ananthan Subramaniam, Norazman Mohamad Nor, Amelia Yuliana Abd Wahab
Cognitive Readiness refers to military personnel who are cognitively ready to perform effective and efficient roles in military operations with the necessary knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs). These KSAs are essential for critical thinking, problem-solving and decision-making. Military personnel at each level in the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF) must be cognitively ready for military deployment. To enhance the cognitive readiness of military personnel at the operational level, a training design—scenario-based training (SBT) has been developed by the Malaysian Armed Forces Staff College (MAFSC) to develop cognitive readiness for course participants (CPs) who attended staff courses. Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS) has been used to analyze the Line of Operation (LOO) that has been produced by the course participant. The results show that SBT affected the development of cognitive readiness to prepare military personnel at the operational level through Joint Warfare environment exercises and tested by Modeling and Simulation (M&S).
认知准备是指军事人员在认知方面做好了准备,能够以必要的知识、技能和能力(KSAs)在军事行动中发挥有效和高效的作用。这些知识、技能和能力对于批判性思维、解决问题和决策至关重要。马来西亚武装部队(MAF)各级军事人员必须为军事部署做好认知准备。为了提高军事人员在作战层面的认知准备能力,马来西亚武装部队参谋学院(MAFSC)开发了一种培训设计--基于情景的培训(SBT),以提高参加参谋课程的学员(CPs)的认知准备能力。联合战区级模拟(JTLS)被用来分析课程学员所编制的行动路线(LOO)。结果表明,通过联合作战环境演习和建模与仿真(M&S)测试,SBT 影响了认知准备的发展,使军事人员在作战层面做好了准备。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology
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