This study primarily examines how the risk factors that lead individuals to social exclusion, disadvantage, and deprivation contribute to financial exclusion and vice versa. This causal relationship for financial and social exclusion is formulated using the simultaneous equations model. Along with the causal relationship, this study identifies the leading personal and environmental determinants for both the probabilities of being unbanked and socially excluded. I use demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic information from the Life in Transition Survey III, conducted in 2016. The study found a reflexive causal relationship between financial and social exclusion in the selected Central-Eastern European countries. Namely, people at risk of social exclusion are more likely to be excluded from access to financial services. On the other hand, those at risk of financial exclusion are more likely to be socially excluded.
本研究主要探讨导致个人受到社会排斥、处于不利地位和贫困的风险因素是如何导致经济排斥的，反之亦然。经济排斥和社会排斥之间的因果关系是通过同步方程模型建立的。在确定因果关系的同时，本研究还确定了导致无银行账户和社会排斥的主要个人和环境决定因素。我使用了 2016 年进行的 "过渡期生活调查 III "中的人口、社会经济和地理信息。研究发现，在选定的中东欧国家，金融排斥和社会排斥之间存在反身因果关系。也就是说，面临社会排斥风险的人更有可能无法获得金融服务。另一方面，面临金融排斥风险的人更有可能受到社会排斥。
{"title":"The reflexive relationship between financial and social exclusion for the selected Central-Eastern European countries","authors":"Byambasuren Dorjnyambuu","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_4_4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_4_4","url":null,"abstract":"This study primarily examines how the risk factors that lead individuals to social exclusion, disadvantage, and deprivation contribute to financial exclusion and vice versa. This causal relationship for financial and social exclusion is formulated using the simultaneous equations model. Along with the causal relationship, this study identifies the leading personal and environmental determinants for both the probabilities of being unbanked and socially excluded. I use demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic information from the Life in Transition Survey III, conducted in 2016. The study found a reflexive causal relationship between financial and social exclusion in the selected Central-Eastern European countries. Namely, people at risk of social exclusion are more likely to be excluded from access to financial services. On the other hand, those at risk of financial exclusion are more likely to be socially excluded.","PeriodicalId":508321,"journal":{"name":"Pénzügyi Szemle = Public Finance Quarterly","volume":"14 30","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139166362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study concentrates on the discussion in Hungary about the causes of contemporary inflation: what are the main causes of it and how to rank them. It tries to establish whether the simple methods of monetary policy are appropriate to stop inflation. The method of the study is an overview of recent professional articles and the analysis of the data of Central Statistical Office publications. It concludes that the Hungarian inflation has several internal and external causes: uncovered spending power especially in time of the COVID epidemic, the growing energy prices because of the Ukrainian war, money retention for Hungary in Brussels, the inadequatetiming of monetary policy actions, the role of imbalance of payments and exchange rates evolution – direct and indirect impulses-, the role of inherited state debts and the accumulated wage distortions which is now to correct, and the tax policy which relies mainly on VAT. The conclusion of the study is that only by autonomous monetary policy actions cannot deal with inflation, because the national policy cannot get rid of the international money markets. It is time to change the tax policy for a more structured one relying on the progressive income taxes.
{"title":"Inflation and finance","authors":"K. Botos","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_4_5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_4_5","url":null,"abstract":"The study concentrates on the discussion in Hungary about the causes of contemporary inflation: what are the main causes of it and how to rank them. It tries to establish whether the simple methods of monetary policy are appropriate to stop inflation. The method of the study is an overview of recent professional articles and the analysis of the data of Central Statistical Office publications. It concludes that the Hungarian inflation has several internal and external causes: uncovered spending power especially in time of the COVID epidemic, the growing energy prices because of the Ukrainian war, money retention for Hungary in Brussels, the inadequatetiming of monetary policy actions, the role of imbalance of payments and exchange rates evolution – direct and indirect impulses-, the role of inherited state debts and the accumulated wage distortions which is now to correct, and the tax policy which relies mainly on VAT. The conclusion of the study is that only by autonomous monetary policy actions cannot deal with inflation, because the national policy cannot get rid of the international money markets. It is time to change the tax policy for a more structured one relying on the progressive income taxes.","PeriodicalId":508321,"journal":{"name":"Pénzügyi Szemle = Public Finance Quarterly","volume":"31 S2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139167563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Review of the book by White, Lawrence H.: Better Money: Gold, fiat, or Bitcoin?
怀特、劳伦斯-H.的书评：更好的货币：黄金、法定货币还是比特币？
{"title":"Which money is more reliable? Book review","authors":"Pál Czeglédi","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_4_7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_4_7","url":null,"abstract":"Review of the book by White, Lawrence H.: Better Money: Gold, fiat, or Bitcoin?","PeriodicalId":508321,"journal":{"name":"Pénzügyi Szemle = Public Finance Quarterly","volume":"26 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139167961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An increasing attention has been paid since the millennium to companies who have loan demand but are afraid of refusal. The self-rationing of loan demand is also affected by the coronavirus pandemic according to the economic literature, however, there are only a few empirical studies regarding this topic. Based on the corporate surveys of the Hungarian Development Bank (MFB-INDIKÁTOR) we analyse that to what extent and to which direction did the latent loan demand of the Hungarian companies change as a consequence of the pandemic, which corporate segments reacted more sensitively to the crisis, and whether there is a measurable effect of the negative perception towards the banks to the lending decisions of the companies. On the basis of the results of cross-tabulation analyses the pandemic moderated the fear of loan application only temporarily; the behaviour of older firms, larger companies and the agricultural sector can be considered relatively stable regarding this issue; finally the role of the experiences and in many cases the negative preconceptions about the banks having a long history together play important roles in self-restraint.
{"title":"The COVID-19 pandemic and discouraged borrowers among Hungarian companies","authors":"Z. Szabó","doi":"10.35551/pfq_2023_4_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.35551/pfq_2023_4_3","url":null,"abstract":"An increasing attention has been paid since the millennium to companies who have loan demand but are afraid of refusal. The self-rationing of loan demand is also affected by the coronavirus pandemic according to the economic literature, however, there are only a few empirical studies regarding this topic. Based on the corporate surveys of the Hungarian Development Bank (MFB-INDIKÁTOR) we analyse that to what extent and to which direction did the latent loan demand of the Hungarian companies change as a consequence of the pandemic, which corporate segments reacted more sensitively to the crisis, and whether there is a measurable effect of the negative perception towards the banks to the lending decisions of the companies. On the basis of the results of cross-tabulation analyses the pandemic moderated the fear of loan application only temporarily; the behaviour of older firms, larger companies and the agricultural sector can be considered relatively stable regarding this issue; finally the role of the experiences and in many cases the negative preconceptions about the banks having a long history together play important roles in self-restraint.","PeriodicalId":508321,"journal":{"name":"Pénzügyi Szemle = Public Finance Quarterly","volume":"49 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139166453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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