Agricultural Economics最新文献

This study leverages the variation in upwind ozone as an arguably exogenous shock for identification and quantifies the impact of ambient ozone on planted acreage of corn and soybeans. Highlighting the importance of behavioral responses, this study finds that a one-additional ppb of average ambient ozone reduces subsequent plantings of corn and soybean acreage by 1.59%–1.97%. Such ozone-induced acreage shrinkage is partially achieved through acreage shifts to less-ozone-sensitive crops. My prediction results suggest that, when ozone concentrations are projected to fall, the expected rise in corn and soybean production by 2050 would be underestimated by 43.41%–49.72% without considering acreage adjustment.

The increasing severity and duration of drought conditions has important implications for the agricultural sector, and particularly livestock producers, as drought can negatively impact profitability and forage availability. The USDA's Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) aims to reduce the economic costs of drought by providing payments to livestock producers experiencing predetermined levels of drought. This paper assesses whether the program alters adaptation behavior and income among livestock producers. Our results suggest that the LFP does not significantly alter adaptation through herd retention and liquidation decision-making, and it shows no significant impact on producer income measured as county-level agricultural GDP.

The growing emphasis on local sourcing and sustainability is reshaping consumer preferences in the food industry. This study investigates how consumers evaluate value-added dairy products by examining the interplay between local branding and environmental impact. Using a mixed logit model and segmentation analysis, we explore consumer responses to various local labels, including “Kentucky Proud,” “Made with Kentucky Milk,” and “Produced within 100 miles,” as well as carbon footprint metrics. Our findings reveal a strong preference for state-affiliated labels like “Kentucky Proud” over geographic proximity labels, potentially pointing to the influence of state boundaries on consumer decision-making. Furthermore, we identify six distinct consumer segments, each characterized by unique priorities regarding local identity and environmental sustainability. These insights provide practical strategies for marketers to promote locally produced, environmentally friendly dairy products, emphasizing the need for integrated labeling approaches that resonate with diverse consumer priorities.

In the context of the 2018/2019 US–China trade war, the Chinese government responded to President Trump's tariffs by imposing retaliatory tariffs, particularly targeting US agricultural products such as soybeans. This paper employs a novel instrumental variable approach to assess the causal effect of China's retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural exports, both to China and its primary third-party importers. The analysis reveals that a 10% increase in retaliatory tariffs on a US agricultural export results in approximately a 1.45%–2.14% reduction in exports to China, alongside a 0.36%–0.58% increase in exports to 38 other major importing nations. In monetary terms, these elasticities translate to estimated annual export losses ranging from 6.91 billion USD to 10.19 billion USD in the Chinese market, contrasted with export gains of 5.30 billion USD to 8.54 billion USD in alternative markets. The findings demonstrate a substantial trade deflection effect, wherein the expansion of exports to third-party markets counterbalances approximately 76.7%–83.8% of the export contraction in the Chinese market.

When multiple food date label phrases are allowed, consumers may misinterpret these labels, causing inefficiency. Using data collected in China, we find considerable consumer misinterpretation even when only one type of food date label is permitted by regulation. Furthermore, consumer preference diverges according to their own interpretation of the label and depending on the type of food. Misinterpretation also leads to consumer welfare loss. Through a value of information (VOI) framework and when misinterpretation is taken into consideration, we show that changing a Sell by label to a Not use if after label generates the largest welfare gain. Our findings advise food manufacturers and policymakers on understanding consumer perspectives of food date labels and creating efficient labeling regulations given consumer misinterpretation.

Access to the Japanese beef market has historically been highly restricted via import quotas and prohibitive tariffs. On January 1, 2020, the United States and Japan implemented the United States–Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA), which aimed to enhance market access by reducing tariffs on a variety of commodities, including beef and beef products. Less than 18 months after USJTA implementation, Japan re-instituted high tariffs on U.S. beef after agreement safeguard levels were surpassed. In June 2022, USJTA safeguards were revised to rely on a three-trigger mechanism. We nest a multitreatment-period difference-in-difference design inside an econometric gravity model to investigate the impacts of these institutional regime changes on United States–Japan beef trade. We find that the USJTA substantially expanded access to the Japanese market for U.S. beef—even in light of the safeguard tariffs. In aggregate, the agreement generates an additional $210 million in annual exports for the U.S. beef industry. Even amidst changing attitudes towards the economic appeal of global market integration, incremental efforts to that end can have meaningful impacts for affected stakeholders.