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Agricultural Economics and the Transformation Toward Sustainable Agri-Food Systems 农业经济学和向可持续农业粮食系统转型
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70023
Matin Qaim, Martin C. Parlasca

Agri-food systems around the world are facing a sustainability crisis. Addressing the many interconnected issues requires fundamental transformations, moving beyond incremental improvements of various details toward broader and more profound systemic change. In this article, which is also the introduction to the ICAE 2024 Special Issue, we explore the role of our agricultural economics profession in shaping these transformation processes, examining how our discipline contributes to understanding agri-food system dynamics and identifying opportunities to enhance sustainability and resilience. We argue that agricultural economists can and should play a more central role in international agri-food systems research and policy initiatives by integrating multiple sustainability goals and metrics with rigorous economic analysis. Interdisciplinary cooperation with colleagues in agronomy, nutrition, environmental sciences, social and political sciences, and other relevant fields is necessary, as is the further development and use of data-driven approaches. However, equally important is maintaining strong theoretical foundations to develop hypotheses and understand behavioral mechanisms. Close exchange with nonacademic stakeholders at all system levels is key for policy relevance. We also provide an overview of the plenary papers presented at ICAE 2024 on various facets of agri-food system transformation and sustainable development.

世界各地的农业粮食系统正面临可持续性危机。解决许多相互关联的问题需要根本性的变革,从各种细节的渐进式改进转向更广泛、更深刻的系统性变革。在这篇文章中,这也是对ICAE 2024特刊的介绍,我们探讨了我们的农业经济学专业在塑造这些转型过程中的作用,研究了我们的学科如何有助于理解农业食品系统动态,并确定提高可持续性和弹性的机会。我们认为,农业经济学家可以而且应该通过将多个可持续性目标和指标与严格的经济分析相结合,在国际农业粮食系统研究和政策举措中发挥更重要的作用。与农学、营养学、环境科学、社会和政治科学以及其他相关领域的同事进行跨学科合作是必要的,进一步发展和使用数据驱动的方法也是必要的。然而,同样重要的是保持强大的理论基础,以发展假设和理解行为机制。与所有系统层面的非学术利益相关者密切交流是政策相关性的关键。我们还概述了ICAE 2024上关于农业食品系统转型和可持续发展各个方面的全体会议论文。
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引用次数: 0
Market Access Under a Dynamic Safeguard Mechanism: Evidence From the United States–Japan Trade Agreement 动态保障机制下的市场准入:来自美日贸易协定的证据
IF 4 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70039
Anabeth Livingston, K. Aleks Schaefer, Trey Malone

Access to the Japanese beef market has historically been highly restricted via import quotas and prohibitive tariffs. On January 1, 2020, the United States and Japan implemented the United States–Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA), which aimed to enhance market access by reducing tariffs on a variety of commodities, including beef and beef products. Less than 18 months after USJTA implementation, Japan re-instituted high tariffs on U.S. beef after agreement safeguard levels were surpassed. In June 2022, USJTA safeguards were revised to rely on a three-trigger mechanism. We nest a multitreatment-period difference-in-difference design inside an econometric gravity model to investigate the impacts of these institutional regime changes on United States–Japan beef trade. We find that the USJTA substantially expanded access to the Japanese market for U.S. beef—even in light of the safeguard tariffs. In aggregate, the agreement generates an additional $210 million in annual exports for the U.S. beef industry. Even amidst changing attitudes towards the economic appeal of global market integration, incremental efforts to that end can have meaningful impacts for affected stakeholders.

进入日本牛肉市场历来受到进口配额和禁止性关税的高度限制。2020年1月1日,美国和日本实施了《美日贸易协定》(USJTA),该协定旨在通过降低包括牛肉和牛肉产品在内的多种商品的关税来加强市场准入。在USJTA实施后不到18个月,日本在超过协议保障水平后重新对美国牛肉征收高关税。2022年6月,USJTA对保障措施进行了修订,以依赖三触发机制。我们在计量经济学重力模型中嵌入了一个多处理期的差异设计,以研究这些制度制度变化对美日牛肉贸易的影响。我们发现,即使在征收保障关税的情况下,USJTA也大幅扩大了美国牛肉进入日本市场的机会。总的来说,该协议每年为美国牛肉产业带来2.1亿美元的额外出口。即使在对全球市场一体化的经济吸引力的态度不断变化的情况下,为此目的所做的逐步努力也可以对受影响的利益攸关方产生有意义的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring Food Access as Affordability of Least-Cost Healthy Diets Worldwide 以全球最廉价健康饮食的可负担性衡量食物获取
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70028
William A. Masters, Jessica K. Wallingford, Anna W. Herforth, Yan Bai

Since 2020, the World Bank, FAO, and others have measured a population's access to sufficient nutritious food for an active and healthy life using a new metric known as the Cost and Affordability of a Healthy Diets (CoAHD). This new kind of data measures food access using market prices of the least expensive locally available items that would meet nutritional criteria adopted by national governments, as summarized in a Healthy Diet Basket (HDB) level of intake balanced among six complementary food groups: starchy staples, vegetables, fruits, fats and oils, animal source foods, and legumes, nuts and seeds. CoAHD reflects the definition of food security introduced during the World Food Summit of 1996, and complements the earlier measures of global food security notably Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU) based on total national availability and intake distribution of calories, and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) based on survey data asking whether a household ran out of resources to acquire their usual diets. This paper briefly discusses the evolution of global food security measurement, then highlights updates to the methods used to compute CoAHD indicators and presents newly available CoAHD data obtained using this methodology and updated price data.

自2020年以来,世界银行、粮农组织和其他机构使用一种名为“健康饮食的成本和可负担性”的新指标来衡量人口获得充足营养食物以实现积极健康生活的情况。这种新的数据利用符合国家政府制定的营养标准的当地可获得的最便宜物品的市场价格来衡量食物获取情况,正如健康饮食篮子(HDB)中总结的那样,六类辅食的摄入平衡水平:淀粉类主食、蔬菜、水果、脂肪和油、动物源食品以及豆类、坚果和种子。CoAHD反映了1996年世界粮食首脑会议期间提出的粮食安全定义,并补充了早期的全球粮食安全措施,特别是基于国家总可得性和卡路里摄入分布的营养不良发生率(PoU),以及基于调查数据的粮食不安全体验量表(FIES),该调查数据询问家庭是否耗尽资源以获取日常饮食。本文简要讨论了全球粮食安全测量的演变,然后重点介绍了用于计算CoAHD指标的方法的更新,并介绍了使用该方法获得的最新CoAHD数据和更新的价格数据。
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引用次数: 0
Seeding Change: Growing Insights From Four Programs to Support Climate-Resilient Soil and Water Conservation in US Agriculture 播种变化:从支持美国农业气候适应性水土保持的四个项目中获得越来越多的见解
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70034
Elinor Benami, Anne Carroll, Kent D. Messer, Wei Zhang, Michael Cecil

The United States authorized unprecedented investments in agri-environmental programs in 2022, dedicating over $19 billion to soil and water conservation practices with climate mitigation and adaptation benefits. We examine historical funding patterns, new funding allocations, and evaluation approaches for these programs. Our analysis reveals four key findings: (1) Nearly 40% of prior conservation funding has supported climate-beneficial practices, with increasing shares reflecting growing producer demand; (2) Although enrollment of historically underserved producers (HUPs) has increased, variation across programs and higher contract non-completion rates among this group suggests enhanced pre- and post-enrollment support services could be valuable; (3) A shift toward partnership-style programs facilitate locally-tailored agreements and market linkages, potentially broadening producer participation while enabling more durable incentives for sustained practice adoption; (4) current evaluation approaches primarily focus on implementation metrics paired with biophysical modeling and could be strengthened through rigorous impact evaluation design. Promising techniques include conducting randomized experiments and integrating geospatial data with program records to assess the impacts on producer behavior as well as program outcomes over time and space. Such approaches can build evidence for strategic conservation finance and de-risk future investments for other types of financial services—accelerating transformation toward sustainable agri-food systems in the United States and beyond.

2022年,美国批准对农业环境项目进行前所未有的投资,投入190多亿美元用于具有减缓和适应气候变化效益的水土保持措施。我们研究了这些项目的历史资助模式、新的资金分配和评估方法。我们的分析揭示了四个主要发现:(1)近40%的先前保护资金支持了有利于气候的实践,这一比例的增加反映了生产者需求的增长;(2)虽然历史上服务不足的生产者(HUPs)的注册人数有所增加,但项目之间的差异和该群体较高的合同不完成率表明,加强注册前和注册后的支持服务可能是有价值的;(3)向伙伴式项目的转变促进了当地定制的协议和市场联系,潜在地扩大了生产者的参与,同时为持续采用实践提供了更持久的激励;(4)目前的评价方法主要侧重于与生物物理建模相结合的实施指标,可以通过严格的影响评价设计来加强。有前景的技术包括进行随机实验,将地理空间数据与项目记录相结合,以评估生产者行为和项目结果随时间和空间的影响。这些方法可以为其他类型金融服务的战略性保护融资和降低风险的未来投资提供证据,从而加速美国及其他地区向可持续农业食品系统的转型。
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引用次数: 0
Role of International Price and Domestic Inflation in Triggering Export Restrictions on Food Commodities 国际价格和国内通货膨胀在触发粮食商品出口限制中的作用
IF 4 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70041
Abdullah Mamun, David Laborde

This paper investigates the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products based on an original dataset developed at IFPRI. We focus on four food price crises when export restrictions (bans, taxes, licenses, etc.) were applied: the 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 food price crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 crisis associated with the Russia–Ukraine war. Although the justifications for such trade policies have been discussed in the literature, the ability to forecast their implementation remains understudied. The probit model used in this study suggests that the inflation rate has a higher power to predict export restrictions than do international commodity prices. The probability of export restrictions increases more when price changes are measured from a reference level in the long term than in the short term. Among the covariates, agricultural land per capita, the commodity's share in total production, and weather conditions increase the chances of imposing export restrictions. Population density, share of agriculture in GDP, urbanization rate, and political economy indicators all have a negative influence on the likelihood of export controls.

本文基于IFPRI开发的原始数据集调查了农产品出口限制的驱动因素。我们重点研究了实施出口限制(禁令、税收、许可证等)的四次粮食价格危机:2007-2008年和2010-2011年粮食价格危机、2019冠状病毒病大流行以及2022年与俄乌战争相关的危机。虽然这些贸易政策的理由已在文献中讨论过,但预测其实施的能力仍未得到充分研究。本研究使用的probit模型表明,通货膨胀率对出口限制的预测能力高于国际商品价格。如果从长期的参考水平来衡量价格变化,那么出口限制的可能性会比从短期的参考水平来衡量更大。在协变量中,人均农业用地、商品在总产量中的份额和天气条件增加了实施出口限制的可能性。人口密度、农业占GDP的比重、城市化率和政治经济指标均对出口管制的可能性产生负向影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Highway Construction on the Profits of Agricultural Enterprises: Evidence From China 公路建设对农业企业利润的影响:来自中国的证据
IF 4 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70037
Weisong Cheng, Jingrun Shao, Liu Cui, Wenhao Song

This study employs a quasi-natural experiment using 7 years (2010–2016) of enterprise tax data from China, leveraging staggered highway openings at the county level to construct a difference-in-differences (DID) model. The findings reveal that highway access significantly enhances the profitability of agricultural enterprises. Robustness tests confirm these results. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that highway access has a greater impact on firms producing perishable agricultural products (e.g., vegetables, fruits, livestock, and aquaculture) and those located farther from major markets. Mechanism analysis suggests that highway access enhances agricultural enterprise profitability by improving transportation efficiency, expanding market reach, and lowering operational costs. Further analysis reveals that highway access positively influences firm productivity. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance sustainable agricultural development globally.

本研究采用准自然实验方法,利用中国7年(2010-2016)的企业税数据,利用错开的县级公路建设,构建差异中差异(DID)模型。研究发现,高速公路可显著提高农业企业的盈利能力。稳健性测试证实了这些结果。异质性分析表明,高速公路通道对生产易腐农产品(如蔬菜、水果、牲畜和水产养殖)和远离主要市场的企业的影响更大。机理分析表明,高速公路可通过提高运输效率、扩大市场覆盖范围和降低经营成本来提高农业企业的盈利能力。进一步分析表明,高速公路通道对企业生产率有正向影响。这些发现为寻求加强全球可持续农业发展的政策制定者提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Climate Resilient Development for Agriculture and Pathways for Gender Inclusivity 气候适应型农业发展和性别包容之路
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70040
Sonia Akter

This study introduces a new concept and framework called Climate Resilient Development for Agriculture (CRDA) to serve as a roadmap for agricultural transformation in the face of climate change. It also explores how to address gender inequity in agriculture during this transformation process. Unlike Climate Resilient Agriculture (CRA), which focuses solely on adjusting farming practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and maintain agricultural production in the face of climate change, CRDA takes a more comprehensive approach by integrating a development perspective. Its goal is to leverage synergies among actions, programs, and policies to achieve climate change mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development goals while also addressing climate change induced loss and damage in the agriculture sector. The CRDA framework outlines potential pathways leading to either high or low CRDA futures and emphasizes the importance of gender equity in its structure. Additionally, the study highlights the potential for actions under the CRDA framework to either exacerbate or mitigate gender disparities and proposes five key actions that can contribute to a gender-inclusive and climate-resilient future for the agriculture sector.

本研究引入了一个名为气候适应型农业发展(CRDA)的新概念和框架,作为面对气候变化的农业转型路线图。它还探讨了如何在这一转型过程中解决农业中的性别不平等问题。与气候适应型农业(CRA)不同,CRDA通过整合发展视角,采取了更全面的方法。气候适应型农业仅侧重于调整耕作方式,以减少温室气体排放,并在气候变化面前维持农业生产。其目标是利用行动、方案和政策之间的协同作用,实现气候变化减缓、适应和可持续发展目标,同时解决气候变化给农业部门造成的损失和损害。CRDA框架概述了导致CRDA未来高或低的潜在途径,并强调了性别平等在其结构中的重要性。此外,该研究还强调了在CRDA框架下采取行动加剧或缓解性别差异的潜力,并提出了五项关键行动,有助于农业部门实现性别包容和气候适应型的未来。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamics of Farm Size-Productivity Relationship: Evidence From Semi-Arid Tropics of India, 1975–2014 农业规模-生产力关系的动态:来自1975-2014年印度半干旱热带地区的证据
IF 4 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-20 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70038
Rahul Kumar Singh, Sarthak Gaurav, Srijit Mishra

This paper presents new evidence on the relationship between farm size and productivity in India's semi-arid tropics, utilizing four decades of data (1975–2014) from ICRISAT's village level studies (VLS). In the context of the agricultural development of India's semi-arid tropics, this period has been associated with a surge in capital-intensive farming practices and declining crop diversity. We present novel evidence on temporal evolution in the farm size-productivity and farm size-efficiency relationship over this period. We control for potential endogeneity of operated land and input use in agriculture by employing fixed effects panel estimation with OLS as well as IV-GMM estimator in the case of productivity analysis and panel SFA for estimating technical inefficiency. We find that, for both measures of productivity—output value per acre and profit per acre—the inverse farm size-productivity relationship has weakened over time, coinciding with the persistent crisis in Indian agriculture. We also find that smallholders operate at a lower level of technical efficiency in value of output per acre but not in terms of profit per acre when compared to their larger counterparts. Furthermore, we find that crop diversification has a negative association with both productivity and technical efficiency. Our findings have implications for the agricultural development policy of the semi-arid tropics.

本文利用ICRISAT村级研究(VLS)的40年数据(1975-2014),提出了关于印度半干旱热带地区农场规模与生产力之间关系的新证据。在印度半干旱热带地区农业发展的背景下,这一时期与资本密集型农业实践的激增和作物多样性的下降有关。我们提出了关于这一时期农场规模-生产力和农场规模-效率关系的时间演变的新证据。我们控制了农业中经营性土地和投入使用的潜在内内生性,方法是在生产率分析中使用固定效应面板估计,在生产率分析中使用IV-GMM估计,在估计技术效率低下时使用面板SFA估计。我们发现,对于生产力(每英亩产值和每英亩利润)这两项指标来说,农场规模与生产力的反向关系随着时间的推移而减弱,这与印度农业持续的危机相吻合。我们还发现,与规模较大的同行相比,小农在每英亩产值方面的技术效率水平较低,但在每英亩利润方面则不然。此外,我们发现作物多样化与生产力和技术效率均呈负相关。本研究结果对半干旱热带地区的农业发展政策具有指导意义。
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引用次数: 0
Healthy and Sustainable Diets in China and Their Global Implications 中国的健康和可持续饮食及其全球影响
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70020
Yumei Zhang, Jingjing Wang, Shenggen Fan

Current diets in China and worldwide are neither healthy nor sustainable. This paper addresses this challenge focusing on China, which has experienced a rapid dietary transition in recent decades. We investigate how China can improve both health and environmental outcomes by adopting healthy and sustainable diets through a literature review and a food system modeling exercise. We further analyze how policy interventions, including both supply- and consumer-side strategies, can promote the transition toward such diets. The findings provide valuable lessons for other countries facing comparable challenges.

在中国和世界范围内,目前的饮食既不健康,也不可持续。本文以近几十年来经历了快速饮食转型的中国为研究对象,探讨了这一挑战。我们通过文献综述和食物系统建模来研究中国如何通过采用健康和可持续的饮食来改善健康和环境结果。我们进一步分析了政策干预,包括供给侧和消费者侧战略,如何促进向这种饮食的过渡。研究结果为其他面临类似挑战的国家提供了宝贵的经验。
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引用次数: 0
Novel Approaches to Analyze Consumer Behavior and Policies to Promote Sustainable Consumption 分析消费者行为的新方法和促进可持续消费的政策
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70027
Bhagyashree Katare, Xuejian Wang, Shuoli Zhao, Jacqueline Yenerall

Technological advancements, such as online grocery shopping, have significantly transformed consumer retail environments and experiences. Effectively studying consumer behavior in these new environments requires the use of novel methodological approaches, which will also aid in developing interventions to encourage sustainable consumption. This paper begins by providing an overview of the current literature on novel approaches to analyzing consumer behavior, then provides an empirical application by examining consumer decision-making pathways within an online grocery shopping platform. Specifically, the paper focuses on exploring the consumers' digital footprints, such as page visits, product additions and removals, and interactions with information labels to identify patterns and interests in consumer responses to healthy and sustainable consumption. Findings highlight the potential benefits of integrating consumer search tracking data with environmental design to facilitate informed and conscious food choices.

技术进步,如网上购物,极大地改变了消费者的零售环境和体验。在这些新环境中有效地研究消费者行为需要使用新的方法方法,这也将有助于制定鼓励可持续消费的干预措施。本文首先概述了当前关于分析消费者行为的新方法的文献,然后通过检查在线杂货购物平台内的消费者决策途径提供了实证应用。具体而言,本文着重于探索消费者的数字足迹,如页面访问、产品添加和删除以及与信息标签的交互,以确定消费者对健康和可持续消费的反应模式和兴趣。研究结果强调了将消费者搜索跟踪数据与环境设计相结合的潜在好处,以促进知情和有意识的食物选择。
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引用次数: 0
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Agricultural Economics
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