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Herbicide-resistant weed management with robots: A weed ecological–economic model 用机器人管理抗除草剂杂草:杂草生态经济模型
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12856
Chengzheng Yu, Madhu Khanna, Shady S. Atallah, Saurajyoti Kar, Muthukumar Bagavathiannan, Girish Chowdhary

The heavy reliance on herbicides for weed control has led to an increase in resistant weeds in the United States. Robotic weed control is emerging as an alternative technology for removing weeds mechanically using artificial intelligence. We develop an integrated weed ecological and economic dynamic (I-WEED) model to examine the biophysical and economic drivers of adopting robotic weed management and simulate the optimal timing and intensity of robotic adoption within and across growing seasons. We specify a cohort-based weed growth model that relates yield damages to effective weed density and treats the susceptibility of weeds to herbicides as a renewable resource that can be regenerated by using mechanical weeding robots, due to a fitness cost that makes resistant weeds less prolific. Compared to myopic weed management which ignores resistance development, forward-looking management leads to earlier adoption of robots and treating robots as complements instead of substitutes to herbicides. This weed management results in adopting fewer robots, deploying robots on a smaller portion of the land, higher profitability, and lower yield loss in the long run, relative to myopic management. Counterintuitively, myopic management leads to a lower resistance level through its higher robot adoption intensity. We also find that a lower level of initial weed seed resistance and/or a higher fitness cost result in a higher level of resistance because they create incentives for farmers to delay the adoption of robotic weed control. Our analysis shows the importance of jointly considering the interactions between weed ecology and economics in analyzing the incentives and effects of robotic weed management on weed resistance.

美国严重依赖除草剂控制杂草,导致抗性杂草增加。机器人除草正在成为利用人工智能机械除草的替代技术。我们开发了一个综合杂草生态和经济动态(I-WEED)模型,以研究采用机器人除草的生物物理和经济驱动因素,并模拟在生长季节内和生长季节间采用机器人除草的最佳时机和强度。我们指定了一个基于队列的杂草生长模型,该模型将产量损失与有效杂草密度联系起来,并将杂草对除草剂的敏感性视为一种可再生资源,可通过使用机械除草机器人进行再生,因为适应性成本会降低抗性杂草的产量。与忽视抗药性发展的近视型杂草管理相比,前瞻性管理导致更早地采用机器人,并将机器人视为除草剂的补充而非替代品。与近视型管理相比,这种杂草管理方式可以减少机器人的使用,在较小面积的土地上部署机器人,从长远来看,利润率更高,产量损失更小。与直觉相反的是,近视管理通过提高机器人的采用强度,降低了阻力水平。我们还发现,较低的初始杂草种子抗性水平和/或较高的适应成本会导致较高的抗性水平,因为它们会刺激农民推迟采用机器人除草。我们的分析表明,在分析机器人杂草管理对杂草抗性的激励和影响时,必须共同考虑杂草生态学和经济学之间的相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
The implicit market price of soil erosion: An estimation using a hedonic model with spatial spillovers 土壤侵蚀的隐性市场价格:利用具有空间溢出效应的保值模型进行估算
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12857
Marcelo Caffera, Felipe Vásquez Lavín, Manuel Barrientos, Daniel Rodríguez Anza, Leonidas Carrasco-Letelier

We estimate the implicit market price of soil erosion using quarterly data of 2824 agricultural farms traded in Uruguay between 2000 and 2014. A unique feature of our estimation is that we allow for possible spatial spillovers. We find evidence of a negative and statistically significant association between erosion and land values. On average, an additional loss of 1% of the original topsoil due to erosion is associated with a direct (own) decrease of .24% in the per-hectare price of agricultural land (P-value: .012, 95% CI: −.0042, −.0005). In 2023 dollars, this is equivalent to a decrease of USD 8.7 in the average price per hectare, or USD 1130 in the price of the average farm. In terms of tons of soil, the average value is $.24 a ton. Finally, considering the 50 km radius of our spatial model, the value of losing 1% of topsoil is $15.8 million. The value of our estimates is sensitive to our measure of erosion and our specification of the spatial-temporal weighting matrix, but the statistical association is robust.

我们利用 2000 年至 2014 年期间乌拉圭 2824 个农业农场的季度交易数据估算了土壤侵蚀的隐含市场价格。我们估算的一个独特之处是考虑到了可能的空间溢出效应。我们发现的证据表明,土壤侵蚀与土地价值之间存在负相关,且在统计上具有显著意义。平均而言,水土流失导致原有表土每增加 1%,农用土地的每公顷价格就会直接(自身)下降 0.24%(P 值:0.012,95% CI:-.0042, -.0005)。以 2023 年的美元计算,这相当于每公顷平均价格降低 8.7 美元,或平均农场价格降低 1130 美元。以吨土壤计算,平均价值为每吨 0.24 美元。最后,考虑到我们的空间模型半径为 50 公里,损失 1%表土的价值为 1,580 万美元。我们的估算值对水土流失的衡量标准和时空加权矩阵的规格很敏感,但统计关联性很强。
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引用次数: 0
Aspirations and weather shocks: Evidence from rural Zambia 愿望与天气冲击:赞比亚农村的证据
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12858
Martin C. Parlasca, Christina A. Martini, Maximilian Köster, Marcela Ibañez

Aspirations defined as future-oriented desires or ambitions, can determine agricultural investments and rural development. Aspirations are shaped by people's social, cultural, and physical environment and can be affected by external factors such as natural disasters. This article addresses the question of how weather shocks can influence individual and community aspirations. Using primary panel data from two survey rounds before and during a major drought in Zambia, we show that such extreme weather events can be associated with adverse impacts on individual aspirations. Further exploratory analyses suggest that aspirations towards assets that are particularly vulnerable to droughts are affected most. We do not find any significant effects of drought on community aspirations.

愿望被定义为面向未来的欲望或抱负,可以决定农业投资和农村发展。愿望受人们的社会、文化和自然环境的影响,并可能受到自然灾害等外部因素的影响。本文探讨了天气冲击如何影响个人和社区愿望的问题。通过使用赞比亚大旱之前和期间两轮调查的原始面板数据,我们发现此类极端天气事件会对个人愿望产生不利影响。进一步的探索性分析表明,对特别易受干旱影响的资产的期望受到的影响最大。我们没有发现干旱对社区愿望有任何重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Endogenous technologies and productivity in rice production: Roles of social instability in Myanmar since 2021 水稻生产的内生技术和生产力:2021 年以来缅甸社会不稳定所起的作用
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12855
Hiroyuki Takeshima, Zin Wai Aung, Ian Masias, Bart Minten

Despite technologies' critical roles in agricultural productivity, evidence is scarce on how conflict affects technology adoption and consequent agricultural productivity, often due to a lack of data in fragile states. Our study contributes to filling this knowledge gap by using unique large-scale data on rice producers before and after a military coup in Myanmar in 2021 that led to a significant increase in conflicts in the country. We find that the increase in violent events including those in adjacent townships significantly changed the rice production function in both factor-neutral and non-neutral ways. Specifically, increased violent events have been generally associated with downward factor-neutral shift in production function, and more importantly, increased output elasticity to agricultural capital (equipment) owned (in other words, reduced output resilience against capital ownership shocks). Our evidence also suggests that this has been led partly through reduced access to agricultural extension services, which would otherwise help farmers maintain productivity even with limited capital ownership by substituting it with human capital and skills. Our results consistently hold for both panel and cross-sectional production functions across various specifications and particularly in Lower Myanmar. Results also indicate that lower mechanization service fees partly mitigate these effects.

尽管技术对农业生产率起着至关重要的作用,但由于缺乏脆弱国家的数据,有关冲突如何影响技术采用及由此产生的农业生产率的证据却很少。2021 年,缅甸发生军事政变,导致国内冲突大幅增加,我们的研究使用了缅甸水稻生产者在政变前后的大规模数据,为填补这一知识空白做出了贡献。我们发现,暴力事件(包括邻近乡镇的暴力事件)的增加以要素中性和非中性的方式显著改变了大米生产函数。具体来说,暴力事件的增加通常与生产函数的要素中性下移有关,更重要的是,与所拥有的农业资本(设备)有关的产出弹性增加(换句话说,产出对资本所有权冲击的弹性降低)。我们的证据还表明,导致这种情况的部分原因是获得农业推广服务的机会减少,而这些服务本来可以帮助农民在拥有有限资本的情况下,通过用人力资本和技能替代资本来保持生产力。我们的结果在不同规格的面板和横截面生产函数中都一致成立,尤其是在缅甸下游地区。结果还表明,较低的机械化服务费在一定程度上缓解了这些影响。
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引用次数: 0
Drought risk management in agriculture: A copula perspective on crop diversification 农业干旱风险管理:作物多样化的耦合视角
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12851
Jonas Schmitt, Frank Offermann, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Robert Finger

Drought events are a major cause of large crop yield losses with implications for food security and farmers’ incomes. Growing multiple crops simultaneously during a cropping season is a well-known on-farm risk management strategy to cope with these drought risks. However, the effectiveness of this crop diversification under different severity levels of drought and how this effectiveness is influenced by the crop composition is unclear. This article provides new methodological and empirical insights to assess the effectiveness of such diversification, in particular to cope with extreme drought. We apply and evaluate nested Archimedean copulas and elliptical copulas to assess simultaneous farm-level yield losses of different cash crops in German agriculture (winter wheat, winter barley, winter rapeseed, sugar beet, and grain maize) under different drought severity levels (N = 249,756; regionally pooled farm-level crop-yield pairs, 1995–2019). We show that on-farm crop diversification contributes to cope with drought risks, but its effectiveness varies considerably across regions, crop pairs, and drought severity. Our results underline that cropping system diversification alone is often not sufficient to cope with drought risks, but that the right crop combinations are needed. For example, during a severe drought (one in 20 years event), 26.4% of farmers in eastern Germany suffered simultaneous yield losses of at least 20% in winter wheat and winter barley, while 19.1% of farmers in eastern Germany suffered simultaneous yield losses of at least 20% in winter wheat and sugar beet. Farmers should therefore be encouraged to grow crops with more diverse phenological requirements throughout the year.

干旱事件是造成大量作物减产的主要原因,对粮食安全和农民收入都有影响。在一个种植季节同时种植多种作物是众所周知的农场风险管理战略,以应对这些干旱风险。然而,这种作物多样化在不同干旱严重程度下的有效性以及这种有效性如何受到作物构成的影响尚不清楚。本文提供了新的方法和经验见解,以评估这种多样化的有效性,尤其是应对极端干旱的有效性。我们应用并评估了嵌套阿基米德共公式和椭圆共公式,以评估德国农业中不同经济作物(冬小麦、冬大麦、冬油菜、甜菜和谷物玉米)在不同干旱严重程度下的农场级产量损失(N = 249,756; 地区汇集的农场级作物产量对,1995-2019 年)。我们的研究表明,农场作物多样化有助于应对干旱风险,但其有效性在不同地区、不同作物对和不同干旱严重程度之间存在很大差异。我们的研究结果强调,仅靠种植系统多样化往往不足以应对干旱风险,还需要正确的作物组合。例如,在严重干旱(20 年一遇)期间,德国东部 26.4% 的农民的冬小麦和冬大麦同时减产至少 20%,而德国东部 19.1% 的农民的冬小麦和甜菜同时减产至少 20%。因此,应鼓励农民全年种植对物候要求更加多样化的作物。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic shock effects on beef carcass premiums 宏观经济冲击对牛肉胴体溢价的影响
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12849
Scott W. Fausti, Hernan A. Tejeda, Matthew A. Diersen

An overview of how macroeconomic shocks affect beef quality-grade premiums and discounts in the U.S. fed cattle market is discussed. We review the shock transmission linkages along the beef industry supply chain and determine the economic implications for the finished cattle market. The analysis provides insight into how the fed cattle market responds to macroeconomic shocks. The economic implications of financial risk associated with the behavior of beef carcass quality-grade premiums and discounts associated with the Great Recession and the COVID pandemic are contrasted and assessed.

Data analysis indicates that macroeconomic shocks affect the quality-grade premium pricing mechanism for finished cattle. The origins of the shock (aggregate demand versus aggregate supply) and government fiscal policy intervention determines how premium levels and premium volatility responds to a macroeconomic shock. Thus, beef carcass quality-grade premiums are not only subject to industry idiosyncratic risk, such as swings in the seasonal demand for beef, but are also subject to systematic risk associated with business cycle fluctuations.

本文概述了宏观经济冲击如何影响美国饲料牛市场上牛肉质量等级的溢价和折价。我们回顾了牛肉产业供应链上的冲击传递联系,并确定了对成品牛市场的经济影响。通过分析,我们可以深入了解饲料牛市场是如何应对宏观经济冲击的。数据分析表明,宏观经济冲击会影响成品牛的质量等级溢价定价机制。冲击的来源(总需求与总供给)和政府财政政策干预决定了溢价水平和溢价波动对宏观经济冲击的反应。因此,牛肉胴体质量等级溢价不仅受到行业特异性风险(如牛肉季节性需求波动)的影响,而且还受到与商业周期波动相关的系统性风险的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Farmers’ preferences for soil conservation measures in Southern Ethiopia: Plot-level discrete choice experiment 埃塞俄比亚南部农民对土壤保持措施的偏好:地块级离散选择实验
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12852
Tilahun Habtamu Adere, Iris Vanermen, Miet Maertens, Liesbet Vranken

This study assesses farmers' preferences for the adoption of grass strips as cropland conservation measures and explores the effects of information on their preferences. We further analyze these preferences for plots with varying levels of tenure security and erosion vulnerability. Using survey data from Southern Ethiopia, a plot-level discrete choice experiment in two rounds that includes a video-based information treatment in a within-subject design is conducted. The findings show that farmers prefer to adopt grass strips with a high conservation potential, that can be used as feedstock and that help to stabilize physical structures or delineate plot boundaries. In addition, information transfer increases preferences for adopting grass strips with not only a high conservation potential but also a medium conservation potential. The effects of the information transfer on preferences are found to be heterogeneous and vary with plot characteristics. Under well-defined property rights, farmers prefer to adopt the grass strips for stabilizing physical structures, conserving their cropland against environmental risk or boundary delineation. However, under weak tenure security, they prefer to plant grass strips only for boundary delineation to reduce the institutional risk of losing cropland, but this preference was only observed after information provision. These findings highlight the importance of designing and implementing context-specific agricultural information dissemination systems and that well-defined land rights increase the adoption of land conservation technology in the global south.

本研究评估了农民对采用草带作为耕地保护措施的偏好,并探讨了信息对其偏好的影响。我们进一步分析了不同保有权保障水平和水土流失脆弱性的地块的这些偏好。利用埃塞俄比亚南部的调查数据,我们进行了两轮地块级离散选择实验,其中包括主体内设计的基于视频的信息处理。研究结果表明,农民更倾向于采用具有高保护潜力、可用作原料、有助于稳定物理结构或划定地块边界的草带。此外,信息传递不仅增加了采用高保护潜力草带的偏好,也增加了采用中等保护潜力草带的偏好。研究发现,信息转移对偏好的影响是多方面的,并随着地块特征的不同而变化。在产权明确的情况下,农民更愿意采用草带来稳定物理结构、保护耕地免受环境风险或划定边界。然而,在土地使用权保障薄弱的情况下,农民更愿意种植草带,只是为了划定边界,以降低失去耕地的制度风险,但这种偏好只有在提供信息后才能观察到。这些发现强调了设计和实施针对具体情况的农业信息传播系统的重要性,以及明确界定的土地权能提高全球南部对土地保护技术的采用率。
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引用次数: 0
Do place-based policies impact residents’ nutrient intake? Evidence from China 以地方为基础的政策会影响居民的营养摄入吗?来自中国的证据
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12853
Yang Yang, Teng Huang, Tianjun Liu

Place-based policies (PBPs) associated with China's “reform and opening-up” have played a significant role in the country's rapid economic development. However, the relationship between PBPs and residents’ nutrient intake remains unexplored. To fill this research gap, this study uses longitudinal data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1991–2011), applies a difference-in-differences approach to analyze the association between PBPs and residents’ nutrient intake, and sheds light on the potential mechanisms. The findings reveal that PBPs are positively associated with increased intake of total energy, fat, and protein. This relationship is facilitated through mechanisms such as promoting local employment opportunities, increasing household income, optimizing the food environment, and increasing residents’ dietary knowledge. The findings also show that the increase in nutrient intake associated with PBPs is more pronounced among men, high-income groups, individuals with higher education, urban residents, and following China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Additionally, PBPs are linked to improved self-assessed health and a decreased likelihood of insufficient fat intake. Meanwhile, insufficient evidence supports the hypothesis that these policies are associated with overnutrition or non-communicable diseases.

与中国 "改革开放 "相关的地方性政策(PBPs)在中国经济的快速发展中发挥了重要作用。然而,地方性政策与居民营养素摄入量之间的关系仍未得到探讨。为填补这一研究空白,本研究利用中国居民健康与营养调查(1991-2011 年)的纵向数据,采用差分法分析了PBPs 与居民营养素摄入量之间的关系,并揭示了其中的潜在机制。研究结果表明,公共卫生项目与总能量、脂肪和蛋白质摄入量的增加呈正相关。这种关系是通过促进当地就业机会、增加家庭收入、优化饮食环境和增加居民饮食知识等机制促成的。研究结果还显示,在男性、高收入群体、受过高等教育的人、城市居民中,以及在中国加入世界贸易组织之后,与公共卫生政策相关的营养素摄入量增加更为明显。此外,PBPs 还与自我评估健康状况的改善和脂肪摄入不足的可能性降低有关。同时,没有足够的证据支持这些政策与营养过剩或非传染性疾病相关的假设。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of food affordability on life expectancy in emerging countries 新兴国家食品负担能力对预期寿命的影响
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12850
Karim Barkat, Mouyad Alsamara, Karim Mimouni, Shaif Jarallah

The relationship between food prices and life expectancy in emerging countries has significant implications for public health and socioeconomic development in these regions. This study examines this relationship using a dataset of 120 emerging economies over the period 2000–2021, employing the dynamic panel threshold and system generalized method of moments (GMM) models. Our findings reveal a nonlinear inverted U-shaped relationship where beyond a specific threshold, higher food prices tend to shorten life expectancy. We also reveal the disproportionate burden placed on low-income countries when food prices rise, in comparison to middle-income countries and highlight the profound impact of economic disparities on public health. Moreover, we identify several channels through which food prices affect life expectancy. Specifically, we reveal that income, undernutrition, and mental health disorders represent potential mediating factors affecting food prices–life expectancy nexus. We also shed light on the severe implications of economic crises on public health, emphasizing the close connection between economic events and indicators of human health. These insights have direct implications for policymakers, offering valuable guidance in the context of fluctuating food prices.

新兴国家食品价格与预期寿命之间的关系对这些地区的公共卫生和社会经济发展具有重要影响。本研究利用 2000-2021 年间 120 个新兴经济体的数据集,采用动态面板阈值和系统广义矩法(GMM)模型,对这一关系进行了研究。我们的研究结果揭示了一种非线性倒 U 型关系,即超过特定阈值后,食品价格上涨往往会缩短预期寿命。我们还揭示了与中等收入国家相比,当食品价格上涨时,低收入国家承受的负担过重,并强调了经济差距对公共卫生的深远影响。此外,我们还发现了食品价格影响预期寿命的几种渠道。具体而言,我们发现收入、营养不良和精神疾病是影响食品价格-预期寿命关系的潜在中介因素。我们还揭示了经济危机对公共健康的严重影响,强调了经济事件与人类健康指标之间的密切联系。这些见解对政策制定者有直接影响,为食品价格波动提供了有价值的指导。
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引用次数: 0
Changing attitudes through information exposure: Experimental evidence on reducing agricultural burning in rural Nigeria 通过接触信息改变态度:减少尼日利亚农村地区农业焚烧的实验证据
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12846
Efobi Uchenna

This study investigates the effectiveness of an education intervention that targets low-income farmers regarding the consequences of agricultural burning. Agricultural burning is a major contributor to carbon emissions, second only to those from the energy sector. Using three treatment arms and a control group, I provided rural farmers in Nigeria with information on the social (health impacts, wildfire spread, biodiversity loss) and economic (income implications) consequences of agricultural burning. The third group received information that combined aspects from the first and second treatments, offering a comprehensive view of the effects of agricultural burning. The analysis suggests that exposure to this information prompts farmers to view agricultural burning as unacceptable, reducing their likelihood of engaging in this practice during the upcoming planting season. In addition, exposed farmers demonstrate a higher willingness to pay nominal fees for government services, such as weed disposal. This outcome demonstrates their support for sustainable farming practices, rather than resorting to burning. The influence of economic information is particularly noteworthy; farmers exposed to it demonstrate a higher willingness to pay such fees. Furthermore, the interventions led to a shift in farmers’ perceptions regarding the primary drivers of climate change, with increased recognition of human activity as the dominant factor. The study highlights how the gender of the farmer and their religious beliefs influence attitudes towards environmental protection. Specifically, male and less religious farmers tend to be more responsive to the interventions. These findings provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of “low-cost” educational interventions in promoting sustainable agricultural practices among low-income communities.

本研究调查了针对低收入农民的有关农业焚烧后果的教育干预措施的有效性。农业焚烧是碳排放的主要来源,仅次于能源行业。通过三个治疗组和一个对照组,我向尼日利亚的农村农民提供了有关农业焚烧的社会后果(健康影响、野火蔓延、生物多样性丧失)和经济后果(收入影响)的信息。第三组接受的信息综合了第一和第二组的内容,提供了关于农业焚烧影响的全面观点。分析表明,接触这些信息会促使农民认为农业焚烧是不可接受的,从而降低他们在即将到来的播种季节从事这种做法的可能性。此外,接触过这些信息的农民表现出更高的意愿,愿意为杂草处理等政府服务支付象征性的费用。这一结果表明他们支持可持续的耕作方式,而不是采用焚烧的方式。经济信息的影响尤其值得注意;受到经济信息影响的农民表现出更高的支付此类费用的意愿。此外,干预措施还促使农民转变了对气候变化主要驱动因素的看法,进一步认识到人类活动是主要因素。研究强调了农民的性别及其宗教信仰如何影响对环境保护的态度。具体而言,男性和宗教信仰较少的农民往往对干预措施反应更积极。这些发现为 "低成本 "教育干预措施在低收入社区推广可持续农业实践的有效性提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
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Agricultural Economics
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