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Rainfall variability and welfare of agricultural households: Evidence from rural Niger 降雨变异性与农业家庭的福利:尼日尔农村的证据
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12833
Soumaïla Gansonré

Variable weather continues to be the major source of vulnerability to chronic hunger and poverty in many developing countries due to the strong dependency of livelihood strategies on rainfed farming. Quantifying the effect of climatic parameters on agricultural households is, therefore, necessary to help policymakers understand the benefits of climate policies, improve the allocation of the scarce resources dedicated to adaptation and prioritize among adaptation strategies. This article investigates the empirical relationship between the welfare of rural households and rainfall variability in the semi-arid tropics, using household panel data and high-resolution remotely sensed rainfall data from Niger. We find that a standard deviation increase in rainfall variability is associated with a reduction of real food consumption by 11.13%. Results also indicate that a standard deviation increase in rainfall variability reduces expenditures for cereal-based products, animal-based products and processed foods by 11.96%, 21.31%, and 16.23%, respectively. Our results are consistent across a battery of robustness checks. Finally, we find geographical-based differences in terms of the effect and that access to cereal banks cushions the negative effect of rainfall variability. Policy interventions aiming at improving the well-being of rural households should therefore emphasize improving climate adaptation strategies.

在许多发展中国家,由于生计战略严重依赖雨水灌溉,多变的天气仍然是导致长期饥饿和贫困的主要原因。因此,有必要量化气候参数对农户的影响,以帮助决策者了解气候政策的益处,改善用于适应的稀缺资源的分配,并确定适应战略的优先次序。本文利用尼日尔的家庭面板数据和高分辨率遥感降雨数据,研究了半干旱热带地区农村家庭福利与降雨变异性之间的经验关系。我们发现,降雨变异性每增加一个标准差,实际粮食消费就会减少 11.13%。结果还表明,降雨量变化每增加一个标准差,谷物类产品、动物类产品和加工食品的支出就会分别减少 11.96%、21.31% 和 16.23%。在一系列稳健性检验中,我们的结果是一致的。最后,我们发现了基于地理位置的影响差异,并且谷物银行的使用可以缓冲降雨量变化的负面影响。因此,旨在改善农村家庭福祉的政策干预措施应强调改善气候适应战略。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic linkages in agricultural and energy markets: A quantile impulse response approach 农业和能源市场的动态联系:量子脉冲响应法
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12837
Linjie Wang, Jean-Paul Chavas, Jian Li

This article investigates the dynamic linkages between agricultural and energy markets, with a focus on an econometric analysis of multivariate stochastic dynamics based on the joint distribution of state variables. The analysis relies on a quantile approach followed by the evaluation of a copula. Applied to nonlinear price dynamics, the approach is flexible and supports a general evaluation of impulse response functions representing how prices adjust over time and across markets in response to a given shock. The analysis allows for arbitrary distribution functions; it captures own-price and cross-price dynamics that can depend on the nature of shocks; and it also allows current changes to affect all moments of the future price distributions. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated in an econometric investigation of dynamic linkages in US corn, ethanol, and crude oil markets. We show how price adjustments can vary across quantiles, reflecting different speeds of adjustments depending on market conditions. We find evidence of nonlinear dynamics specific to the tails of the price distributions. We uncover evidence of positive contemporaneous codependence, especially tail dependence. We show how price shocks affect mean, variance, skewness as well as kurtosis of future price distributions. These results stress the importance of going beyond a standard mean-variance analysis. They also shed new light on the deep linkages existing in the food-fuel nexus.

本文研究了农产品市场与能源市场之间的动态联系,重点是基于状态变量联合分布的多变量随机动态计量经济学分析。分析依赖于一种量化方法,然后是对 copula 的评估。该方法适用于非线性价格动态,非常灵活,并支持对脉冲响应函数的一般评估,这些函数代表了价格如何随着时间的推移在不同市场上对给定冲击做出调整。该分析允许任意的分布函数;它捕捉了可能取决于冲击性质的自身价格和交叉价格动态;它还允许当前变化影响未来价格分布的所有时刻。通过对美国玉米、乙醇和原油市场动态联系的计量经济学调查,说明了该方法的实用性。我们展示了不同数量级的价格调整是如何变化的,反映了不同市场条件下的不同调整速度。我们发现了价格分布尾部特有的非线性动态证据。我们发现了正同期相互依赖的证据,尤其是尾部依赖。我们展示了价格冲击如何影响未来价格分布的均值、方差、偏斜度以及峰度。这些结果强调了超越标准均值-方差分析的重要性。它们还揭示了粮食-燃料关系中存在的深层联系。
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引用次数: 0
Soil quality evaluation for irrigated agroecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan: The Luenberger indicator approach 巴基斯坦旁遮普省灌溉农业生态区的土壤质量评估:卢恩伯格指标法
IF 4.1 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12831
Asjad Tariq Sheikh, Atakelty Hailu, Amin Mugera, Ram Pandit, Stephen Davies

This article describes the construction of the Luenberger soil quality indicator (SQI) using data on crop yield, non-soil inputs, and soil profile from three irrigated agroecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, namely, rice–wheat, maize–wheat–mix, and cotton–mix zones. Plot level data are used to construct a soil quality indicator by estimating directional distance functions within a data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework. We find that the SQI and crop yield relationships exhibit diminishing returns to improving soil quality levels. Using the constructed SQI values, we estimate linear regression models to generate weights that could be used directly to aggregate individual soil attributes into soil quality indicators without the necessity of fitting a frontier to the crop production data. For wheat and rice production, we find that SQI is most sensitive to changes in soil electrical conductivity (EC) and potassium (K). The SQI has direct relevance for site-specific decision-making problems where policymakers need to price land resources and conservation services to achieve agricultural and environmental goals.

本文介绍了利用巴基斯坦旁遮普省三个灌溉农业生态区(即水稻-小麦区、玉米-小麦混合区和棉花-混合区)的作物产量、非土壤投入和土壤剖面数据构建卢恩贝格尔土壤质量指标(SQI)的方法。通过在数据包络分析(DEA)框架内估计方向距离函数,利用地块级数据构建土壤质量指标。我们发现,SQI 与作物产量的关系表现出改善土壤质量水平的收益递减。利用构建的 SQI 值,我们估算了线性回归模型以生成权重,这些权重可直接用于将单个土壤属性汇总为土壤质量指标,而无需对作物产量数据进行前沿拟合。在小麦和水稻生产中,我们发现 SQI 对土壤导电率(EC)和钾(K)的变化最为敏感。SQI 与具体地点的决策问题直接相关,决策者需要对土地资源和保护服务进行定价,以实现农业和环境目标。
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引用次数: 0
Do higher global oil and wheat prices matter for the wheat flour price in Lebanon? 全球石油和小麦价格上涨对黎巴嫩的面粉价格有影响吗?
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-05-05 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12832
Mohamad B. Karaki, Andrios Neaimeh

This article investigates the effect of global oil and wheat prices, and local price shocks on the real price of wheat flour in Lebanon. We estimate a structural vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (SVARX) using Bayesian methods. We then compute the impulse response functions and find that global commodity price shocks play a trivial role. Meanwhile, local gasoline price and wheat flour price-specific shocks trigger large increases in the Lebanese wheat flour price on impact. Furthermore, since 2020, local gasoline price and wheat flour price-specific shocks have contributed the most to the historical variation in the Lebanese wheat flour price.

本文研究了全球石油和小麦价格以及当地价格冲击对黎巴嫩小麦面粉实际价格的影响。我们使用贝叶斯方法估计了一个带有外生变量的结构性向量自回归模型(SVARX)。然后,我们计算了脉冲响应函数,发现全球商品价格冲击所起的作用微不足道。同时,当地汽油价格和小麦粉价格的特定冲击会引发黎巴嫩小麦粉价格的大幅上涨。此外,自 2020 年以来,当地汽油价格和小麦粉价格的特定冲击对黎巴嫩小麦粉价格的历史变化贡献最大。
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引用次数: 0
Re-examining the effect of heat and water stress on agricultural output growth: How is Sub-Saharan Africa different? 重新审视热与水压力对农业产出增长的影响:撒哈拉以南非洲有何不同?
IF 4.1 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12830
Uchechukwu Jarrett, Yvonne Tackie

We examine the impact of climate driven heat and water stress on aggregate crop production growth, paying particular attention to the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region as opposed to studies with a global or Non SSA focus. Using gridded data on temperature and precipitation, which is crop weighted and averaged to the national level, we generate measures of stressors that capture average temperature and precipitation shocks, and extreme punctuated events like dry spells and heat waves for 38 countries in Sub Saharan Africa between 1979 and 2016. We find in general that compared to estimates with a global or non SSA focus, the detrimental effect of increased annual temperature has been overstated, while the damage caused by shorter-term extremes like dry spells and heat waves has been understated. This implies that region specific analysis is key in developing a more comprehensive understanding of climate change. Such analyses are pivotal for climate policy development allowing for more spatially efficient allocation of limited financial resources, and greater accuracy in estimating adaptation effects.

我们研究了气候驱动的热量和水压力对农作物总产量增长的影响,与关注全球或非撒哈拉以南非洲地区的研究相比,我们特别关注撒哈拉以南非洲地区。利用经过作物加权并平均到国家层面的气温和降水网格数据,我们得出了 1979 年至 2016 年间撒哈拉以南非洲 38 个国家的压力测量值,这些测量值反映了平均气温和降水冲击,以及干旱和热浪等极端突发事件。我们发现,总体而言,与全球或非撒哈拉以南非洲地区的估计相比,年气温升高的不利影响被高估了,而干旱和热浪等短期极端事件造成的损害被低估了。这意味着,针对具体地区的分析是更全面了解气候变化的关键。此类分析对于气候政策的制定至关重要,可以从空间上更有效地分配有限的财政资源,并更准确地估计适应效果。
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引用次数: 0
Factors influencing United States cattle producers use of livestock risk protection 影响美国养牛生产者使用牲畜风险保护的因素
IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12838
Christopher N. Boyer, Karen L. DeLong, Andrew P. Griffith, Charles C. Martinez

United States cattle producers have various government-sponsored programs to protect against weather and disease related risks, but livestock risk protection (LRP) insurance is the only program that protects against price risk. However, adoption of LRP insurance is low even though cattle price declines are the primary cause of economic loss, and LRP premium subsidies have recently been increased. Therefore, the objective of this study is to explore how informational nudges about receiving an indemnity payment, LRP contract characteristics, and individual risk preferences affect the use of LRP. Producer survey results were estimated using a Cragg model to determine the factors affecting producers’ likelihood of purchasing LRP and the number of head they would insure. Producers were more likely to purchase 100% LRP coverage and would also insure more head at 100% coverage when compared to lower coverage levels. We found providing information on the probability of receiving an indemnity did not impact LRP purchasing decisions. However, counter to expectations, producers were more likely to buy LRP when the randomly provided cattle prices in the survey were successively increasing each month, and if participants considered themselves more willing to take risks in their cattle operation. Results provide insights into behavioral factors affecting LRP participation which could help inform future insurance policies.

美国养牛业者有各种由政府资助的计划来抵御与天气和疾病有关的风险,但牲畜风险保障(LRP)保险是唯一能抵御价格风险的计划。然而,尽管牛价下跌是造成经济损失的主要原因,但采用牲畜风险保护保险的比例却很低,而且牲畜风险保护保险的保费补贴最近也有所增加。因此,本研究的目的是探讨有关获得赔偿金的信息提示、LRP 合同特征和个人风险偏好如何影响 LRP 的使用。使用 Cragg 模型对生产者调查结果进行了估算,以确定影响生产者购买 LRP 的可能性及其投保头数的因素。与较低的承保水平相比,生产者更倾向于购买 100%的低赔付率保险,并且在 100%的承保水平下投保的头数也更多。我们发现,提供有关获得赔偿概率的信息并不影响购买 LRP 的决策。然而,与预期相反的是,当调查中随机提供的牛价每月连续上涨时,如果参与者认为自己在养牛经营中更愿意承担风险,生产者更有可能购买 LRP。调查结果表明,行为因素会影响人们对土地保护计划的参与,这有助于为未来的保险政策提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Machine learning to predict grains futures prices 机器学习预测谷物期货价格
IF 4.1 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12828
Paolo Libenzio Brignoli, Alessandro Varacca, Cornelis Gardebroek, Paolo Sckokai

Accurate commodity price forecasts are crucial for stakeholders in agricultural supply chains. They support informed marketing decisions, risk management, and investment strategies. Machine learning methods have significant potential to provide accurate forecasts by maximizing out-of-sample accuracy. However, their inherent complexity makes it challenging to understand the appropriate data pre-processing steps to ensure proper functionality. This study compares the forecasting performance of Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks (LSTM-RNNs) with classical econometric time series models for corn futures prices. The study considers various combinations of data pre-processing techniques, variable clusters, and forecast horizons. Our results indicate that LSTM-RNNs consistently outperform classical methods, particularly for longer forecast horizons. In particular, our findings demonstrate that LSTM-RNNs are capable of automatically handling structural breaks, resulting in more accurate forecasts when trained on datasets that include such shocks. However, in our setting, LSTM-RNNs struggle to deal with seasonality and trend components, necessitating specific data pre-processing procedures for their removal.

准确的商品价格预测对农业供应链中的利益相关者至关重要。它们支持明智的营销决策、风险管理和投资战略。机器学习方法通过最大限度地提高样本外准确性,在提供准确预测方面具有巨大潜力。然而,机器学习方法固有的复杂性使得了解适当的数据预处理步骤以确保其正常功能具有挑战性。本研究比较了长短期记忆递归神经网络(LSTM-RNN)与经典计量经济学时间序列模型对玉米期货价格的预测性能。研究考虑了数据预处理技术、变量群和预测期限的各种组合。研究结果表明,LSTM-RNN 始终优于传统方法,尤其是在较长的预测期限内。特别是,我们的研究结果表明,LSTM-RNNs 能够自动处理结构性断裂,因此在包含此类冲击的数据集上进行训练时,预测结果更为准确。然而,在我们的环境中,LSTM-RNNs 在处理季节性和趋势成分时显得力不从心,因此需要特定的数据预处理程序来去除它们。
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引用次数: 0
Does it matter how we ship the good apples out? On specific tariffs, transport modes, and agricultural export prices 如何把好苹果运出去重要吗?关于特定关税、运输方式和农产品出口价格
IF 4.1 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12829
Dela-Dem Doe Fiankor, Bernhard Dalheimer, Daniele Curzi, Onno Hoffmeister, Bernhard Brümmer

Free-on-board (FOB) export prices for identical products from the same origin often differ across destinations, even when accounting for the trade costs and attributes of the destination country. One explanation for this observed price difference is per-unit trade costs, and the ability of exporters to vary their markups and/or product quality. Using a novel dataset that details trade flows between countries by mode of transport, we estimate the transport mode-specific effect of a per-unit trade cost, specifically specific tariffs, on the FOB export prices of agricultural products. We find an elasticity of specific tariffs to export prices of 1.8%. However, the estimates are heterogeneous across modes of transport. The elasticity of specific tariffs to export prices is 2% for air transport, 5% for road transport, and  .3% for sea cargo. Since the observed positive export price effect can reflect product quality differences or markups, we account for the quality element and find that for a given product quality, markups increase with increasing specific tariffs. This form of price discrimination is less pronounced for higher-quality products that are predominantly shipped by air.

即使考虑到目的地国的贸易成本和属性,同一原产地的相同产品在不同目的地的离岸出口价格也往往不同。造成这种价格差异的原因之一是单位贸易成本以及出口商改变加价和/或产品质量的能力。我们利用一个按运输方式详细说明国家间贸易流的新数据集,估算了单位贸易成本(特别是特定关税)对农产品离岸出口价格的特定运输方式影响。我们发现,特定关税对出口价格的弹性为 1.8%。然而,不同运输方式的估计值是不同的。空运的特定关税对出口价格的弹性为 2%,公路运输为 5%,海运为 0.3%。由于观察到的出口价格正效应可能反映了产品质量差异或加价,我们考虑了质量因素,发现在产品质量一定的情况下,加价会随着特定关税的增加而增加。对于主要通过空运运输的高质量产品,这种形式的价格歧视不太明显。
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引用次数: 0
The direct and indirect effects of cash transfer program on the consumption of nutrients: Evidence from Kenya 现金转移计划对营养素消费的直接和间接影响:肯尼亚的证据
IF 4.1 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12827
Silas Ongudi, Djiby Thiam, Mario J. Miranda, Sam Abdoul

How does the receipt of a cash transfer impact consumption of nutrients, vitamins, and minerals in households? To answer this question, we use a randomized controlled trial dataset from Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP) with 9,246 households spread across the four districts (Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, and Mandera) of Kenya. In the experiment, HSNP treated households received a bi-monthly cash transfer of about United States of America Dollar (USD) 20 relative to households in control sub-locations. Using difference in-difference specification, we find that HSNP poor beneficiary households in treated households increased (by approximately 96%, 50%, and 61%) the consumption of vitamins A, C, and beta carotene, respectively compared to those in control sub-locations. Moreover, HSNP non-poor, non-beneficiary households residing in treated sub-locations increased (by about 70% and 46%) the consumption of vitamin A and Beta carotene, respectively compared to those in control sub-locations. In addition, HSNP-poor beneficiary households in treated sub-locations sourced most of their nutrients, vitamins, and minerals from the market. We rule out alternative pathways that could potentially increase consumption and conclude that a rise in consumption amongst HSNP non-poor, non-beneficiary households is due to sharing of HSNP transfer amongst social network members.

接受现金转移如何影响家庭营养素、维生素和矿物质的消费?为了回答这个问题,我们使用了 "饥饿安全网计划"(HSNP)的随机对照试验数据集,该数据集包含肯尼亚四个地区(图尔卡纳、马萨比特、瓦吉尔和曼德拉)的 9246 个家庭。在实验中,相对于对照组分区的家庭,接受过 HSNP 项目治疗的家庭每两个月会收到约 20 美元的现金转移。利用差分法,我们发现与对照分区的家庭相比,HSNP 贫困受益家庭的维生素 A、C 和 beta 胡萝卜素消费量分别增加了约 96%、50% 和 61%。此外,与对照分区相比,居住在接受治疗分区的 HSNP 非贫困非受益家庭的维生素 A 和胡萝卜素消费量分别增加了(约 70% 和 46% )。此外,在接受治疗的分区中,HSNP 贫困受益家庭的大部分营养素、维生素和矿物质都来自市场。我们排除了其他可能增加消费的途径,并得出结论认为,《人类健康所需的营养计划》非贫困、非受益家庭消费的增加是由于社会网络成员之间分享了《人类健康所需的营养计划》的转移支付。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Iran: Spatial spillovers matter 调查气候变化对伊朗农业的经济影响:空间溢出效应
IF 4.1 3区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/agec.12821
Sayed Morteza Malaekeh, Layla Shiva, Ammar Safaie

In this study, we enhance our understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Iran to provide further information for moving Iran's climate policy forward by linking farmland net revenue to novel climatic and non-climatic variables. We take advantage of spatial panel econometrics to better circumvent omitted factors extraneous to the agricultural sector and to develop a more reliable and consistent model when data are inherently spatial. In contrast to conventional panel studies which relied on year-to-year weather observations, we exploit a hybrid approach to compromise between the disadvantages and advantages of longer-term cross-sectional analysis and shorter-term panel models. We estimate the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture under several global warming scenarios based on the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We find that (I) farmlands’ net revenues are projected to decline by 8%–19% and 14%–51% by 2050 and 2080; (II) the distributional impacts of climate change would highly depend on climate zones and geographical locations; (III) a few counties might benefit from climate changes; (IV) finally, failing to account for spatial spillovers when they are present leads to a misspecified model.

在本研究中,我们通过将农田净收入与新的气候和非气候变量联系起来,加深了对气候变化对伊朗农业的经济影响的理解,为推进伊朗的气候政策提供了更多信息。我们利用空间面板计量经济学的优势,更好地规避了农业部门之外的遗漏因素,并在数据本身具有空间性的情况下,开发出更可靠、更一致的模型。与依赖逐年气象观测的传统面板研究不同,我们采用了一种混合方法,在长期横截面分析和短期面板模型的优缺点之间进行折中。我们以耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段(CMIP6)为基础,估算了几种全球变暖情景下气候变化对农业的潜在影响。我们发现:(I) 到 2050 年和 2080 年,农田净收入预计将分别下降 8%-19%和 14%-51%;(II) 气候变化的分布影响将在很大程度上取决于气候区和地理位置;(III) 少数县可能会从气候变化中受益;(IV) 最后,如果不考虑空间溢出效应,则会导致模型规范错误。
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引用次数: 0
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Agricultural Economics
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