Pub Date : 2022-03-15DOI: 10.25088/complexsystems.31.1.59
Jayati Deshmukh, S. Srinivasa
Evolution of cooperation among self-interested agents is revisited in this paper in the context of globalization and localization. A globalized society is characterized by disentrenchment—or routine interactions between strangers across subcultures. Such interactions are rich in novelty, but also have high levels of distrust and insecurity. A localized society is comprised of clusters of subcultures where most social interactions happen. Each tightly knit subculture is rich in mutual familiarity and trust, but not conducive to the spread of novel ideas. A second dimension is that of utilitarian knowledge. Historically, social acquaintances were the primary (if not the only) source of utilitarian knowledge. With technologies like the internet, diffusion of utilitarian knowledge in a society is no longer modulated by acquaintance networks. This leads us to two different forms of (dis)entrenchment: (dis)entrenchment of knowledge and (dis)entrenchment of acquaintance, leading to four societal configurations. This paper asks how each of the configurations fares with respect to the evolution of cooperation. Entrenchment is represented using well-known network models from the literature, and evolution of cooperation is modeled by the evolutionary version of the iterated prisoners’ dilemma game. Based on simulation runs, we note that acquaintance and knowledge are characteristically different aspects. We find that disentrenched knowledge is more conducive for evolution of cooperation in networks rather than disentrenched acquaintances.
{"title":"Cooperation and the Globalization-Localization Dilemmas","authors":"Jayati Deshmukh, S. Srinivasa","doi":"10.25088/complexsystems.31.1.59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25088/complexsystems.31.1.59","url":null,"abstract":"Evolution of cooperation among self-interested agents is revisited in this paper in the context of globalization and localization. A globalized society is characterized by disentrenchment—or routine interactions between strangers across subcultures. Such interactions are rich in novelty, but also have high levels of distrust and insecurity. A localized society is comprised of clusters of subcultures where most social interactions happen. Each tightly knit subculture is rich in mutual familiarity and trust, but not conducive to the spread of novel ideas. A second dimension is that of utilitarian knowledge. Historically, social acquaintances were the primary (if not the only) source of utilitarian knowledge. With technologies like the internet, diffusion of utilitarian knowledge in a society is no longer modulated by acquaintance networks. This leads us to two different forms of (dis)entrenchment:\u2028(dis)entrenchment of knowledge and (dis)entrenchment of acquaintance, leading to four societal configurations. This paper asks how each of the configurations fares with respect to the evolution of cooperation. Entrenchment is represented using well-known network models from the literature, and evolution of cooperation is modeled by the evolutionary version of the iterated prisoners’ dilemma game. Based on simulation runs, we note that acquaintance and knowledge are characteristically different aspects. We find that disentrenched knowledge is more conducive for evolution of cooperation in networks rather than disentrenched acquaintances.","PeriodicalId":50871,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Complex Systems","volume":"20 1","pages":"59-85"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81879194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-15DOI: 10.1142/S0219525922500096
Tanya Ara'ujo, R. Mendes
Long range connections play an essential role in dynamical processes on networks, on the processing of information in biological networks, on the structure of social and economical networks and in the propagation of opinions and epidemics. Here we review the evidence for long range connections in real world networks and discuss the nature of the nonlocal diffusion arising from different distance-dependent laws. Particular attention is devoted to exponential and power laws.
{"title":"Long-Range Connections, Real-World Networks and rates of diffusion","authors":"Tanya Ara'ujo, R. Mendes","doi":"10.1142/S0219525922500096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525922500096","url":null,"abstract":"Long range connections play an essential role in dynamical processes on networks, on the processing of information in biological networks, on the structure of social and economical networks and in the propagation of opinions and epidemics. Here we review the evidence for long range connections in real world networks and discuss the nature of the nonlocal diffusion arising from different distance-dependent laws. Particular attention is devoted to exponential and power laws.","PeriodicalId":50871,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Complex Systems","volume":"19 1","pages":"2250009:1-2250009:24"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80152943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-15DOI: 10.25088/complexsystems.31.1.87
L. Bull
The NK model has been used widely to explore aspects of natural evolution and complex systems. Traditionally, the model has used a binary representation scheme. This paper introduces a modified form of the NK model through which to systematically explore the effects of discrete, nonbinary representations on evolution over rugged fitness landscapes. Results suggest the basic properties of the original model remain but changes are seen in walk lengths to optima and the sensitivity to mutation rates, in particular. The variation to the case of coupled fitness landscapes, the NKCS model, is also extended in the same way. Again, similarities and differences to the binary case are found.
{"title":"Nonbinary Representations in the NK and NKCS Models","authors":"L. Bull","doi":"10.25088/complexsystems.31.1.87","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25088/complexsystems.31.1.87","url":null,"abstract":"The NK model has been used widely to explore aspects of natural evolution and complex systems. Traditionally, the model has used a binary representation scheme. This paper introduces a modified form of the NK model through which to systematically explore the effects of discrete, nonbinary representations on evolution over rugged fitness landscapes. Results suggest the basic properties of the original model remain but changes are seen in walk lengths to optima and the sensitivity to mutation rates, in particular. The variation to the case of coupled fitness landscapes, the NKCS model, is also extended in the same way. Again, similarities and differences to the binary case are found.","PeriodicalId":50871,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Complex Systems","volume":"148 2 1","pages":"87-101"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83666854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-15DOI: 10.25088/complexsystems.31.1.103
Daisuke Uragami, Y. Gunji
Elementary cellular automata (ECAs) generate critical spacetime patterns in a few local rules, which are expected to have advantages in reservoir computing (RC). However, previous studies have not revealed the advantages of critical spacetime patterns in RC. In this paper, we focus on the distractor’s length in the time series data for learning and clarify the advantages of the critical spacetime patterns. Furthermore, we propose asynchronously tuned ECAs (AT_ECAs) to generate universally critical spacetime patterns in many local rules. Based on the results achieved in this study, we propose RC based on AT_ECAs. Moreover, we show that the universal criticality of AT_ECAs is effective for learning time series data.
{"title":"Universal Criticality in Reservoir Computing Using Asynchronous","authors":"Daisuke Uragami, Y. Gunji","doi":"10.25088/complexsystems.31.1.103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.25088/complexsystems.31.1.103","url":null,"abstract":"Elementary cellular automata (ECAs) generate critical spacetime patterns in a few local rules, which are expected to have advantages in reservoir computing (RC). However, previous studies have not revealed the advantages of critical spacetime patterns in RC. In this paper, we focus on the distractor’s length in the time series data for learning and clarify the advantages of the critical spacetime patterns. Furthermore, we propose asynchronously tuned ECAs (AT_ECAs) to generate universally critical spacetime patterns in many local rules. Based on the results achieved in this study, we propose RC based on AT_ECAs. Moreover, we show that the universal criticality of AT_ECAs is effective for learning time series data.","PeriodicalId":50871,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Complex Systems","volume":"1 1","pages":"103-121"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75299582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-03DOI: 10.1142/s0219525922500023
M. Gaudiano, Carlos M. Lucca, J. Revelli
In this work, we study the hierarchical properties observed in temporal patterns of public transport strike records of Córdoba city, Argentina. We show how a previously developed entropy-based methodology can be applied here to unveil different strike regimes, to which particular political uncontrollability degrees can be naturally associated. From data analysis, a successive increment in the uncontrollability of the public transport system can be quantitatively inferred. The proposed analysis turns out to be easily generalizable to other contexts, providing a theoretical framework for contrasting the intensity of the strikes, independently of its nature, city and/or historical time.
{"title":"Entropic Analysis of Public transport System Strikes","authors":"M. Gaudiano, Carlos M. Lucca, J. Revelli","doi":"10.1142/s0219525922500023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0219525922500023","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we study the hierarchical properties observed in temporal patterns of public transport strike records of Córdoba city, Argentina. We show how a previously developed entropy-based methodology can be applied here to unveil different strike regimes, to which particular political uncontrollability degrees can be naturally associated. From data analysis, a successive increment in the uncontrollability of the public transport system can be quantitatively inferred. The proposed analysis turns out to be easily generalizable to other contexts, providing a theoretical framework for contrasting the intensity of the strikes, independently of its nature, city and/or historical time.","PeriodicalId":50871,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Complex Systems","volume":"43 1","pages":"2250002:1-2250002:15"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79587954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-25DOI: 10.1142/s0219525922500011
Jun Su, Pengcheng Zhou
Music listening is one of the most enigmatic of human mental phenomena; it not only triggers emotions but also changes our behavior. During the music session many people are observed to exhibit varying emotional response, which can be influenced by diverse factors such as music genre and instrument as well as the personal attributes of audiences. In this study, we assume that there is an intrinsic, complex and implicit relationship between the basic sound features of music and human emotional response to the music. The response levels of 12 individuals to a representative repertoire of 36 classical/popular Chinese traditional music (CTM) are systematically analyzed using the chills as a quantitative indicator, totally resulting in 432 ([Formula: see text]) CTM–individual pairs that define a systematic individual-to-music response profile (SPTMRP). Gaussian process (GP) is then employed to model the multivariate correlation of SPTMRP profile with 15 sound features (including 5 Timbres, 4 Rhythms and 6 Pitchs) and 5 individual features in a supervised manner, which is also improved by genetic algorithm (GA) feature selection and compared with other machine learning methods. It is shown that the built GP regression model possesses a strong internal fitting ability ([Formula: see text]) and a good external predictive power ([Formula: see text]), which performed much better than linear PLS and nonlinear SVM and RF, confirming that the human emotional response to music can be quantitatively explained by GP methodology. Statistical examination of the GP model reveals that the sound features contribute more significantly to emotional response than individual features; their importance increases in the order: [Formula: see text], in which the spectral centroid (SC), relative amplitude of salient peaks (RASP), ratio of peak amplitudes (RPA), sum of all rhythm histograms (SARH) and period of unfolded maximum peak (PUMP) as well as gender are primarily responsible for the response.
{"title":"Use of Gaussian Process to Model, predict and Explain Human Emotional response to Chinese Traditional Music","authors":"Jun Su, Pengcheng Zhou","doi":"10.1142/s0219525922500011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0219525922500011","url":null,"abstract":"Music listening is one of the most enigmatic of human mental phenomena; it not only triggers emotions but also changes our behavior. During the music session many people are observed to exhibit varying emotional response, which can be influenced by diverse factors such as music genre and instrument as well as the personal attributes of audiences. In this study, we assume that there is an intrinsic, complex and implicit relationship between the basic sound features of music and human emotional response to the music. The response levels of 12 individuals to a representative repertoire of 36 classical/popular Chinese traditional music (CTM) are systematically analyzed using the chills as a quantitative indicator, totally resulting in 432 ([Formula: see text]) CTM–individual pairs that define a systematic individual-to-music response profile (SPTMRP). Gaussian process (GP) is then employed to model the multivariate correlation of SPTMRP profile with 15 sound features (including 5 Timbres, 4 Rhythms and 6 Pitchs) and 5 individual features in a supervised manner, which is also improved by genetic algorithm (GA) feature selection and compared with other machine learning methods. It is shown that the built GP regression model possesses a strong internal fitting ability ([Formula: see text]) and a good external predictive power ([Formula: see text]), which performed much better than linear PLS and nonlinear SVM and RF, confirming that the human emotional response to music can be quantitatively explained by GP methodology. Statistical examination of the GP model reveals that the sound features contribute more significantly to emotional response than individual features; their importance increases in the order: [Formula: see text], in which the spectral centroid (SC), relative amplitude of salient peaks (RASP), ratio of peak amplitudes (RPA), sum of all rhythm histograms (SARH) and period of unfolded maximum peak (PUMP) as well as gender are primarily responsible for the response.","PeriodicalId":50871,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Complex Systems","volume":"33 1","pages":"2250001:1-2250001:22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88266935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-24DOI: 10.1142/s0219525921500119
Guang Zeng, Jun Zhang, Rui Ye, A. Schadschneider, Shuchao Cao, Qiao Wang, Weiguo Song
Large crowds are challenging the comfort and safety level of big cities, while music may be a potential method to improve pedestrian flow. This paper focuses on the influence of different tempos and types of background music on pedestrian dynamics. Three tempos (90[Formula: see text]beats/min (BPM), 120[Formula: see text]BPM and 150[Formula: see text]BPM) and two types (pure music and metronome stimuli) of music are considered. It is found that more frequent stop-and-go behaviors emerge with rhythms. Compared with that under a low tempo (90[Formula: see text]BPM) of rhythm condition, stopping is more frequent with a high tempo one (120[Formula: see text]BPM or 150[Formula: see text]BPM). The number of stopping pedestrians per unit time increases 68.57%, 376.00%, 298.29%, 224.00%, 438.29% and 393.71% with 90 BPM, 120[Formula: see text]BPM and 150[Formula: see text]BPM music, 90[Formula: see text]BPM, 120[Formula: see text]BPM and 150[Formula: see text]BPM metronome, compared with that without any rhythm, respectively. The velocity and flow are lower, and higher local densities appear with background music. The step frequency at high density with rhythms ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]Hz for 90[Formula: see text]BPM, 120[Formula: see text]BPM and 150[Formula: see text]BPM music; [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]Hz for 90[Formula: see text]BPM, 120[Formula: see text]BPM and 150[Formula: see text]BPM metronome) is lower than that without any rhythm ([Formula: see text][Formula: see text]Hz). Pedestrians need more time to avoid collisions and to step under background music conditions, because they are influenced by the music and not fully focusing on walking. As a result, step frequency decreases and stopping behavior is more frequent. This in turn leads to the decrease of the velocity and flow and the emergence of higher local densities. Our study will be helpful for understanding the effect of background music on pedestrian dynamics.
{"title":"Pedestrian dynamics in single-File movement under Background Music with Different Tempos","authors":"Guang Zeng, Jun Zhang, Rui Ye, A. Schadschneider, Shuchao Cao, Qiao Wang, Weiguo Song","doi":"10.1142/s0219525921500119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0219525921500119","url":null,"abstract":"Large crowds are challenging the comfort and safety level of big cities, while music may be a potential method to improve pedestrian flow. This paper focuses on the influence of different tempos and types of background music on pedestrian dynamics. Three tempos (90[Formula: see text]beats/min (BPM), 120[Formula: see text]BPM and 150[Formula: see text]BPM) and two types (pure music and metronome stimuli) of music are considered. It is found that more frequent stop-and-go behaviors emerge with rhythms. Compared with that under a low tempo (90[Formula: see text]BPM) of rhythm condition, stopping is more frequent with a high tempo one (120[Formula: see text]BPM or 150[Formula: see text]BPM). The number of stopping pedestrians per unit time increases 68.57%, 376.00%, 298.29%, 224.00%, 438.29% and 393.71% with 90 BPM, 120[Formula: see text]BPM and 150[Formula: see text]BPM music, 90[Formula: see text]BPM, 120[Formula: see text]BPM and 150[Formula: see text]BPM metronome, compared with that without any rhythm, respectively. The velocity and flow are lower, and higher local densities appear with background music. The step frequency at high density with rhythms ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]Hz for 90[Formula: see text]BPM, 120[Formula: see text]BPM and 150[Formula: see text]BPM music; [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]Hz for 90[Formula: see text]BPM, 120[Formula: see text]BPM and 150[Formula: see text]BPM metronome) is lower than that without any rhythm ([Formula: see text][Formula: see text]Hz). Pedestrians need more time to avoid collisions and to step under background music conditions, because they are influenced by the music and not fully focusing on walking. As a result, step frequency decreases and stopping behavior is more frequent. This in turn leads to the decrease of the velocity and flow and the emergence of higher local densities. Our study will be helpful for understanding the effect of background music on pedestrian dynamics.","PeriodicalId":50871,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Complex Systems","volume":"38 1","pages":"2150011:1-2150011:19"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90113622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1142/S0219525922500059
Arvind Upreti, V. Sridhar
{"title":"The dynamics of Task Automation and Worker Adjustment in Labor Markets: an Agent-based Approach","authors":"Arvind Upreti, V. Sridhar","doi":"10.1142/S0219525922500059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525922500059","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50871,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Complex Systems","volume":"18 1","pages":"2250005:1-2250005:26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78398980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1142/S0219525922400021
Filippo Gusella
This paper proposes a macroeconometric analysis to depict and measure possible nancial cycles that emerge due to the dynamic interaction between heterogeneous market participants. We consider 2-type heterogeneous speculative agents: Trend followers tend to follow the price trend while contrarians go against the wind. As agents' beliefs are unobserved variables, we construct a state-space model where heuristics are considered as unobserved state components and from which the conditions for endogenous cycles can be mathematically derived and empirically tested. Further, we speci cally measure the length of endogenous nancial cycles. The model is estimated using the equity price index for the 196
{"title":"Detecting and Measuring Financial cycles in Heterogeneous Agents Models: an Empirical Analysis","authors":"Filippo Gusella","doi":"10.1142/S0219525922400021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525922400021","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a macroeconometric analysis to depict and measure possible nancial cycles that emerge due to the dynamic interaction between heterogeneous market participants. We consider 2-type heterogeneous speculative agents: Trend followers tend to follow the price trend while contrarians go against the wind. As agents' beliefs are unobserved variables, we construct a state-space model where heuristics are considered as unobserved state components and from which the conditions for endogenous cycles can be mathematically derived and empirically tested. Further, we speci cally measure the length of endogenous nancial cycles. The model is estimated using the equity price index for the 196","PeriodicalId":50871,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Complex Systems","volume":"1 1","pages":"2240002:1-2240002:22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88855052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-29DOI: 10.1142/s0219525921500107
Ricardo Simão, Francisco Rosendo, L. Wardil
The role of luck on individual success is hard to be investigated empirically. Simplified mathematical models are often used to shed light on the subtle relations between success and luck. Recently, a simple model called “Talent versus Luck” showed that the most successful individual in a population can be just an average talented individual that is subjected to a very fortunate sequence of events. Here, we modify the framework of the TvL model such that in our model the individuals’ success is modelled as an ensemble of one-dimensional random walks. Our model reproduces the original TvL results and, due to the mathematical simplicity, it shows clearly that the original conclusions of the TvL model are the consequence of two factors: first, the normal distribution of talents with low standard deviation, which creates a large number of average talented individuals; second, the low number of steps considered, which allows the observation of large fluctuations. We also show that the results strongly depend on the relative frequency of good and bad luck events, which defines a critical value for the talent: in the long run, the individuals with high talent end up very successful and those with low talent end up ruined. Last, we considered two variations to illustrate applications of the ensemble of random walks model.
{"title":"The Talent versus luck Model as an Ensemble of One-dimensional Random Walks","authors":"Ricardo Simão, Francisco Rosendo, L. Wardil","doi":"10.1142/s0219525921500107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0219525921500107","url":null,"abstract":"The role of luck on individual success is hard to be investigated empirically. Simplified mathematical models are often used to shed light on the subtle relations between success and luck. Recently, a simple model called “Talent versus Luck” showed that the most successful individual in a population can be just an average talented individual that is subjected to a very fortunate sequence of events. Here, we modify the framework of the TvL model such that in our model the individuals’ success is modelled as an ensemble of one-dimensional random walks. Our model reproduces the original TvL results and, due to the mathematical simplicity, it shows clearly that the original conclusions of the TvL model are the consequence of two factors: first, the normal distribution of talents with low standard deviation, which creates a large number of average talented individuals; second, the low number of steps considered, which allows the observation of large fluctuations. We also show that the results strongly depend on the relative frequency of good and bad luck events, which defines a critical value for the talent: in the long run, the individuals with high talent end up very successful and those with low talent end up ruined. Last, we considered two variations to illustrate applications of the ensemble of random walks model.","PeriodicalId":50871,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Complex Systems","volume":"1 1","pages":"2150010:1-2150010:14"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78572690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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