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Long time fluctuations at critical parameter of Hopf’s bifurcation Hopf分岔临界参数的长时间波动
IF 1.2 2区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104785
M. Aleandri , P. Dai Pra
A dynamical system that undergoes a supercritical Hopf’s bifurcation is perturbed by a multiplicative Brownian motion that scales with a small parameter ɛ. The random fluctuations of the system at the critical point are studied when the dynamics starts near equilibrium, in the limit as ɛ goes to zero. Under a space–time scaling the system can be approximated by a 2-dimensional process lying on the center manifold of the Hopf’s bifurcation and a slow radial component together with a fast angular component are identified. Then the critical fluctuations are described by a “universal” stochastic differential equation whose coefficients are obtained taking the average with respect to the fast variable.
一个经历超临界霍普夫分岔的动力系统会受到一个乘性布朗运动的扰动,该运动的尺度为一个小参数。研究了系统在接近平衡状态时,在极限情况下,系统在临界点处的随机波动。在时空尺度下,系统可近似为Hopf分岔中心流形上的二维过程,并识别出慢速径向分量和快速角分量。然后用一个“通用”随机微分方程来描述临界波动,该方程的系数对快速变量取平均值。
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引用次数: 0
Inverting the Markovian projection for pure jump processes 反演纯跳跃过程的马尔可夫投影
IF 1.2 2区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104804
Martin Larsson, Shukun Long
Markovian projections arise in problems where we aim to mimic the one-dimensional marginal laws of an Itô semimartingale by using another Itô process with Markovian dynamics. In applications, Markovian projections are useful in calibrating jump–diffusion models with both local and stochastic features, leading to the study of the inversion problems. In this paper, we invert the Markovian projections for pure jump processes, which can be used to construct calibrated local stochastic intensity (LSI) models for credit risk applications. Such models are jump process analogues of the notoriously hard to construct local stochastic volatility (LSV) models used in equity modeling.
马尔可夫投影出现在我们试图通过使用另一个具有马尔可夫动力学的Itô过程来模拟Itô半鞅的一维边缘定律的问题中。在实际应用中,马尔可夫投影可用于校正具有局部和随机特征的跳跃-扩散模型,从而研究反演问题。在本文中,我们反演了纯跳跃过程的马尔可夫预测,这可以用于构建信用风险应用的校准局部随机强度(LSI)模型。这些模型是股票建模中难以构建的局部随机波动(LSV)模型的跳跃过程类似物。
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引用次数: 0
On the Condensation and fluctuations in reversible coagulation–fragmentation models 关于可逆混凝破碎模型中的凝聚和波动
IF 1.2 2区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104828
Wen Sun
We study the condensation phenomenon for the invariant measures of the mean-field model of reversible coagulation–fragmentation processes conditioned to a supercritical density of particles. It is shown that when the parameters of the associated balance equation satisfy a subexponential tail condition, there is a single giant particle that corresponds to the missing mass in the macroscopic limit. We also show that in this case, the rest of the particles are asymptotically i.i.d according to the normalised equilibrium state of the limit hydrodynamic differential equation. Conditions for the normal fluctuations and the α-stable fluctuations around the condensed mass are given. We obtain the large deviation principle for the empirical measure of the masses of the particles at equilibrium as well.
我们研究了以超临界粒子密度为条件的可逆凝固破碎过程平均场模型的不变测度的凝结现象。结果表明,当相关平衡方程参数满足亚指数尾条件时,存在一个巨粒子,该粒子对应于宏观极限中缺失的质量。我们还证明,在这种情况下,根据极限流体动力微分方程的归一化平衡状态,其余的粒子是渐近的。给出了凝聚质量周围正常波动和α-稳定波动的条件。我们还得到了平衡态粒子质量经验测量的大偏差原理。
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引用次数: 0
Mixing for Poisson representable processes and consequences for the Ising model and the contact process 泊松可表示过程的混合及其对伊辛模型和接触过程的影响
IF 1.2 2区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104831
Stein Andreas Bethuelsen , Malin Palö Forsström
Forsström et al. (2025) recently introduced a large class of {0,1}-valued processes that they named Poisson representable. In addition to deriving several interesting properties for these processes, their main focus was determining which processes are contained in this class.
In this paper, we derive new characteristics for Poisson representable processes in terms of certain mixing properties. Using these, we argue that neither the upper invariant measure of the supercritical contact process on Zd nor the plus state of the Ising model on Z2 within the phase transition regime is Poisson representable. Moreover, we show that on Zd, d2, any non-extremal translation invariant state of the Ising model cannot be Poisson representable. Together, these results provide answers to questions raised in Forsström et al. (2025).
Forsström等人(2025)最近引入了一大类{0,1}值过程,他们将其命名为泊松可表示过程。除了为这些进程派生几个有趣的属性外,他们的主要关注点是确定哪些进程包含在这个类中。在本文中,我们根据某些混合性质导出了泊松可表示过程的新特征。利用这些,我们论证了无论是Zd上的超临界接触过程的上不变测度,还是Z2上的Ising模型的相变态都是泊松可表示的。此外,我们证明了在Zd, d≥2时,Ising模型的任何非极值平移不变态都不能是泊松可表示的。总之,这些结果为Forsström等人(2025)提出的问题提供了答案。
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引用次数: 0
Multivariate change estimation for a stochastic heat equation from local measurements 基于局部测量的随机热方程的多元变化估计
IF 1.2 2区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104832
Anton Tiepner , Lukas Trottner
<div><div>We study a stochastic heat equation with piecewise constant diffusivity <span><math><mi>ϑ</mi></math></span> having a jump at a hypersurface <span><math><mi>Γ</mi></math></span> that splits the underlying space <span><math><msup><mrow><mrow><mo>[</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>]</mo></mrow></mrow><mrow><mi>d</mi></mrow></msup></math></span>, <span><math><mrow><mi>d</mi><mo>≥</mo><mn>2</mn><mo>,</mo></mrow></math></span> into two disjoint sets <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>Λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo></mrow></msub><mo>∪</mo><msub><mrow><mi>Λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msub><mo>.</mo></mrow></math></span> Based on multiple spatially localized measurement observations on a regular <span><math><mi>δ</mi></math></span>-grid of <span><math><msup><mrow><mrow><mo>[</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>]</mo></mrow></mrow><mrow><mi>d</mi></mrow></msup></math></span>, we propose a joint M-estimator for the diffusivity values and the set <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>Λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msub></math></span> that is inspired by statistical image reconstruction methods. We study convergence of the domain estimator <span><math><msub><mrow><mover><mrow><mi>Λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̂</mo></mrow></mover></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msub></math></span> in the vanishing resolution level regime <span><math><mrow><mi>δ</mi><mo>→</mo><mn>0</mn></mrow></math></span> and with respect to the expected symmetric difference pseudometric. As a first main finding we give a characterization of the convergence rate for <span><math><msub><mrow><mover><mrow><mi>Λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>̂</mo></mrow></mover></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msub></math></span> in terms of the complexity of <span><math><mi>Γ</mi></math></span> measured by the number of intersecting hypercubes from the regular <span><math><mi>δ</mi></math></span>-grid. Furthermore, for the special case of domains <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>Λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msub></math></span> that are built from hypercubes from the <span><math><mi>δ</mi></math></span>-grid, we demonstrate that perfect identification with probability tending to one is possible with a slight modification of the estimation approach. Implications of our general results are discussed under two specific structural assumptions on <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>Λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msub></math></span>. For a <span><math><mi>β</mi></math></span>-Hölder smooth boundary fragment <span><math><mi>Γ</mi></math></span>, the set <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>Λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msub></math></span> is estimated with rate <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>δ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>β</mi></mrow></msup></math></span>. If we assume <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>Λ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>+</mo></mrow></msub></math></span> to be convex, we obtain a <span><math><mi>δ</mi></math></span>-rate. While our approach only aims at optimal domain estimation rates, we also demonstrate consistency of ou
我们研究了一个具有分段常数扩散率的随机热方程,它在一个超曲面Γ上有跳跃,该超曲面将基础空间[0,1]d, d≥2分割为两个不相交集Λ−∪Λ+。基于正则δ-网格[0,1]d上的多个空间定域测量观测,我们提出了一种基于统计图像重建方法的扩散系数值和集合Λ+的联合m估计。我们研究了在逐渐消失的分辨率水平区域δ→0和关于期望对称差分伪度量的域估计器Λ³+的收敛性。作为第一个主要发现,我们给出了Λ³+的收敛速率的表征,以Γ的复杂性为依据,通过正则δ-网格的相交超立方体的数量来测量。此外,对于由δ-网格的超立方体构建的域Λ+的特殊情况,我们证明了通过对估计方法的稍微修改,概率趋于1的完美识别是可能的。在Λ+的两个具体结构假设下讨论了我们的一般结果的含义。对于β-Hölder光滑边界片段Γ,集Λ+用速率δβ估计。如果我们假设Λ+是凸的,我们就得到了δ速率。虽然我们的方法仅针对最优域估计速率,但我们也证明了我们的扩散估计器的一致性,对于锚定在δ-网格上的Λ+集,它被加强为最小最大最优速率的CLT。
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We study convergence of the domain estimator &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mover&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Λ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;̂&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/mover&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;+&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; in the vanishing resolution level regime &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;δ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo&gt;→&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn&gt;0&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; and with respect to the expected symmetric difference pseudometric. As a first main finding we give a characterization of the convergence rate for &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mover&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Λ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;̂&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/mover&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;+&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; in terms of the complexity of &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Γ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; measured by the number of intersecting hypercubes from the regular &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;δ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;-grid. Furthermore, for the special case of domains &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Λ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;+&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; that are built from hypercubes from the &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;δ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;-grid, we demonstrate that perfect identification with probability tending to one is possible with a slight modification of the estimation approach. Implications of our general results are discussed under two specific structural assumptions on &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Λ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;+&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. For a &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;β&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;-Hölder smooth boundary fragment &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Γ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, the set &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Λ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;+&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; is estimated with rate &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msup&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;δ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;β&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msup&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. If we assume &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Λ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;+&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; to be convex, we obtain a &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;mi&gt;δ&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;-rate. While our approach only aims at optimal domain estimation rates, we also demonstrate consistency of ou","PeriodicalId":51160,"journal":{"name":"Stochastic Processes and their Applications","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 104832"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145528795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A generalised spatial branching process with ancestral branching to model the growth of a filamentous fungus 一个广义的空间分支过程与祖先分支来模拟丝状真菌的生长
IF 1.2 2区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104817
Lena Kuwata
In this work, we introduce a spatial branching process to model the growth of the mycelial network of a filamentous fungus. In this model, each filament is described by the position of its tip, the trajectory of which is solution to a stochastic differential equation with a drift term which depends on all the other trajectories. Each filament can branch either at its tip or along its length, that is to say at some past position of its tip, at some time- and space-dependent rates. It can stop growing at some rate which also depends on the positions of the other tips. We first construct the measure-valued process corresponding to this dynamics, then we study its large population limit and we characterise the limiting process as the weak solution to a system of partial differential equations.
在这项工作中,我们引入了一个空间分支过程来模拟丝状真菌菌丝网络的生长。在该模型中,每个灯丝由其尖端的位置描述,其轨迹是具有漂移项的随机微分方程的解,该方程依赖于所有其他轨迹。每根细丝既可以在其尖端分支,也可以沿着其长度分支,也就是说,在其尖端过去的某个位置分支,分支的速率与时间和空间有关。它可以以某种速度停止生长,这也取决于其他尖端的位置。我们首先构造了与此动力学相对应的测度值过程,然后研究了它的大种群极限,并将极限过程描述为一个偏微分方程组的弱解。
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引用次数: 0
Change of numeraire for weak martingale transport 弱鞅输运的数值变化
IF 1.2 2区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104779
Mathias Beiglböck , Gudmund Pammer , Lorenz Riess
Change of numeraire is a classical tool in mathematical finance. Campi–Laachir–Martini (Campi et al., 2017) established its applicability to martingale optimal transport. We note that the results of Campi et al. (2017) extend to the case of weak martingale transport. We apply this to shadow couplings (in the sense of Beiglböck and Juillet (2021)), continuous time martingale transport problems in the framework of Huesmann–Trevisan (Huesmann and Trevisan, 2019) and in particular to establish the correspondence of stretched Brownian motion with its geometric counterpart. From a mathematical finance perspective, the geometric (stretched) Brownian motion and the corresponding geometric Bass local volatility model are more natural, and via the change of numeraire transform the efficient and well-understood algorithm for the Bass local volatility model can be adapted to this geometric counterpart.
数值变换是数学金融中的一种经典工具。Campi - laachir - martini (Campi et al., 2017)建立了其对鞅最优运输的适用性。我们注意到Campi等人(2017)的结果扩展到弱鞅输运的情况。我们将其应用于阴影耦合(Beiglböck和juliet(2021)的意义上),Huesmann - Trevisan框架中的连续时间矩阵输移问题(Huesmann和Trevisan, 2019),特别是建立拉伸布朗运动与其几何对应的对应关系。从数学金融的角度来看,几何(拉伸)布朗运动和相应的几何Bass局部波动模型更自然,通过改变数值变换,Bass局部波动模型的高效且易于理解的算法可以适应于这种几何对应物。
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引用次数: 0
Stationary fluctuations for the WASEP with long jumps and infinitely extended reservoirs 具有长跳和无限扩展水库的WASEP的平稳波动
IF 1.2 2区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104827
Wenxuan Chen , Linjie Zhao
We study a weakly asymmetric exclusion process with long jumps and with infinitely many extended reservoirs. We prove that the stationary fluctuations of the process are governed by the generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process or the stochastic Burgers equation with Dirichlet boundary conditions depending on the strength of the asymmetry of the dynamics.
研究了具有无限多扩展储层的长跃弱不对称排斥过程。根据动力学不对称性的强弱,证明了该过程的平稳波动可由广义Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程或具有Dirichlet边界条件的随机Burgers方程控制。
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引用次数: 0
Consumption–investment optimization with Epstein–Zin utility in unbounded non-Markovian markets 无界非马尔可夫市场中Epstein-Zin效用下的消费-投资优化
IF 1.2 2区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104805
Zixin Feng , Dejian Tian , Harry Zheng
The paper investigates the consumption–investment problem for an investor with Epstein–Zin utility in an incomplete market. A non-Markovian environment with unbounded parameters is considered, which is more realistic in practical financial scenarios compared to the Markovian setting. The optimal consumption and investment strategies are derived using the martingale optimal principle and quadratic backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) whose solutions admit some exponential moment. This integrability property plays a crucial role in establishing a key martingale argument. In addition, the paper also examines the associated dual problem and several models within the specified parameter framework.
研究了不完全市场中具有Epstein-Zin效用的投资者的消费-投资问题。考虑了参数无界的非马尔可夫环境,与马尔可夫环境相比,它在实际金融场景中更为现实。利用鞅最优原理和解存在指数矩的二次倒向随机微分方程(BSDEs),导出了最优消费和投资策略。这种可积性在建立一个关键的鞅论证中起着至关重要的作用。此外,本文还研究了相关的对偶问题和特定参数框架下的几种模型。
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引用次数: 0
Moments for self-normalized partial sums 自规格化部分和的矩
IF 1.2 2区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104810
Muneya Matsui , Thomas Mikosch , Olivier Wintenberger
We consider a regularly varyingstationary sequenceof random variables (Xt) with tail index α<2. For this sequence we study the joint convergenceof sums, p-type moduli and maxima. We focus on ratio statistics, including the studentized sums and sums normalized by the corresponding maxima, and study the existence of moments for the limit ratios. We consider particular examples of processes (Xt) whose limit ratios possess all moments as in the iid setting. But, in contrast to the latter situation, there also exist dependent sequences (Xt) where certain moments of the limit ratio are infinite. This phenomenon results from extremal clusters in the sequence.
我们考虑一个尾部指数为α<;2的随机变量序列(Xt)。对于这个序列,我们研究了和、p型模和极大值的联合收敛性。重点研究了比率统计,包括学生化和及相应最大值归一化和,并研究了极限比率矩的存在性。我们考虑过程(Xt)的特殊例子,其极限比在iid设置中具有所有矩。但是,与后一种情况相反,也存在相关序列(Xt),其中极限比的某些矩是无限的。这种现象是由序列中的极端簇造成的。
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引用次数: 0
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