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Estimating Pluvial Depth–Damage Functions for Areas within the United States Using Historical Claims Data 利用历史索赔数据估算美国境内地区的洪水深度损害函数
3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1061/nhrefo.nheng-1543
Jeremy R. Porter, Michael L. Marston, Evelyn Shu, Mark Bauer, Kelvin Lai, Bradley Wilson, Mariah Pope
Flooding has been the most costly natural disaster over the last 2 decades within the US. Therefore, recent research has focused on more accurately predicting economic losses from flooding to aid decision makers and mitigate economic exposure. For this, depth–damage functions have commonly been employed to predict the relative or absolute damage to buildings caused by different magnitudes of flooding. Although depth–damage functions, such as those adopted by the US Army Corps of Engineers, are widely available for fluvial and coastal flooding, less work has been done to develop functions for pluvial-induced flooding. Here, we use a database containing 13.5 million claims to develop pluvial depth–damage functions. For this, recently released flood hazard data are utilized to identify claims within the database that are likely related to pluvial flooding. We employed two types of regression models to fit the depth–damage functions. Secondarily, we developed an automated valuation model (AVM) to estimate building values across the state of New Jersey. These building values were then combined with flood hazard layers in order to apply the depth–damage functions and compute an aggregate annualized loss for New Jersey. The results indicated moderate agreement between the observed damage within the state of New Jersey and that computed by applying the study-developed depth–damage curves to buildings within the state using pluvial flood hazard layers. It is anticipated that the depth–damage functions developed by this research will aid future work in more accurately quantifying the economic risks associated with flooding across the US.
洪水是美国过去20年来损失最大的自然灾害。因此,最近的研究集中在更准确地预测洪水造成的经济损失,以帮助决策者减轻经济风险。因此,深度破坏函数通常被用来预测不同震级的洪水对建筑物造成的相对或绝对破坏。虽然深度破坏函数,如美国陆军工程兵团所采用的,广泛用于河流和沿海洪水,但很少有工作用于开发洪水引起的洪水的函数。在这里,我们使用包含1350万索赔的数据库来开发洪水深度损害函数。为此,最近发布的洪水灾害数据被用于识别数据库中可能与洪水有关的索赔。我们采用了两种回归模型来拟合深度-损伤函数。其次,我们开发了一个自动估价模型(AVM)来估计整个新泽西州的建筑价值。然后将这些建筑价值与洪水危险层相结合,以便应用深度损害函数并计算新泽西州的年化总损失。结果表明,新泽西州内观测到的破坏与将研究开发的深度破坏曲线应用于该州内使用洪积洪水危险层的建筑物所计算的破坏之间存在适度的一致性。预计本研究开发的深度损害函数将有助于未来更准确地量化与美国洪水相关的经济风险。
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引用次数: 1
Promoting Spatial Coordination in Flood Buyouts in the United States: Four Strategies and Four Challenges from the Economics of Land Preservation Literature 促进美国洪水收购的空间协调:来自土地保护经济学文献的四个策略和四个挑战
IF 2.7 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1061/nhrefo.nheng-1564
Polina K. Dineva, Christina McGranaghan, K. Messer, Leah H. Palm‐Forster, L. Paul, A. Siders
: Managed retreat in the form of voluntary flood-buyout programs provides homeowners with an alternative to repairing and rebuilding residences that have sustained severe flood damage. Buyout programs are most economically efficient when groups of neighboring properties are acquired because they can then create unfragmented flood control areas and reduce the cost of providing local services. However, buyout programs in the United States often fail to acquire such efficient, unfragmented spaces, for various reasons, including long administrative timelines, the way in which buyout offers are made, desires for community cohesion, and attachments to place. Buyout programs have relied primarily on posted price mechanisms involving offers that are accepted or rejected by homeowners with little or no negotiation. In this paper, we describe four alternative strategies that have been used successfully in land-preservation agricultural – environmental contexts to increase acceptance rates and decrease fragmentation: agglomeration bonuses, reverse auctions, target constraints, and hybrid approaches. We discuss challenges that may arise during their implementation in the buyout context — transaction costs, equity and distributional impacts, unintended consequences, and social pressure — and recommend further research into the efficiency and equity of applying these strategies to residential buyout programs with the explicit goal of promoting spatial coordination. © 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
:以自愿洪水买断计划的形式进行的有管理的撤退为房主提供了一种修复和重建遭受严重洪水破坏的住宅的替代方案。当收购一组相邻的房产时,收购计划在经济上最有效,因为它们可以创建无分割的防洪区,并降低提供当地服务的成本。然而,由于各种原因,包括行政时间长、提出收购要约的方式、对社区凝聚力的渴望以及对地方的依恋,美国的收购计划往往无法获得如此高效、无分割的空间。收购计划主要依赖于公布的价格机制,包括房主在很少或根本没有协商的情况下接受或拒绝的报价。在本文中,我们描述了四种在土地保护农业-环境背景下成功使用的替代策略,以提高接受率和减少碎片化:集聚奖金、反向拍卖、目标约束和混合方法。我们讨论了在收购背景下实施过程中可能出现的挑战——交易成本、公平和分配影响、意外后果和社会压力——并建议进一步研究将这些策略应用于住宅收购计划的效率和公平性,明确目标是促进空间协调。©2022美国土木工程师学会。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Flood Risk Assessment and Mitigation through Numerical Modeling: A Case Study 通过数值模拟加强洪水风险评估和减灾:一个案例研究
IF 2.7 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1061/nhrefo.nheng-1687
Shui-Hua Jiang, Hua Zhi, Ze‐Zhou Wang, Shuai Zhang
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引用次数: 0
Community Perspectives on Simulation and Data Needs for the Study of Natural Hazard Impacts and Recovery 社区对自然灾害影响和恢复研究的模拟和数据需求的看法
IF 2.7 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1061/nhrefo.nheng-1551
A. Zsarnóczay, G. Deierlein, C. J. Williams, T. Kijewski-Correa, A. Esnard, L. Lowes, Laurie Johnson
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引用次数: 3
Benefit–Cost Analysis of Low-Cost Flood Inundation Sensors 低成本洪水淹没传感器的成本效益分析
IF 2.7 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000596
A. Rose, D. Wei, Juan Machado, K. Spencer
: The demand for inexpensive and reliable warning systems has increased in recent years as a result of the increase in the number and severity of flood disasters. A new generation of low-cost sensors for flood monitoring and warning is being developed by the federal government and private sectors, in some cases collaboratively. We perform a benefit-cost analysis of this new product category, (i.e., low-cost flood inundation sensors), which can readily be deployed in a wireless or internet of things network. The use of these sensors can improve the coverage and lengthen the lead time of flood warning systems. The production costs of this new technology are only a fraction of those of existing sensors with similar capability and reliability, and operating costs are modest. Benefits depend on such factors as the ability to improve lead times of warnings to reduce property damage, deaths, and injuries from floods as well as the extent of adoption of the new sensors. Our analysis indicates a benefit – cost ratio of 1.4 to 1. However, our results are based on several assumptions. Hence, we have undertaken extensive sensitivity analyses to determine that our results are robust. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000596. © 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
:近年来,由于洪水灾害的数量和严重程度的增加,对廉价可靠的预警系统的需求也在增加。联邦政府和私营部门正在开发新一代低成本的洪水监测和预警传感器,在某些情况下是合作开发的。我们对这一新产品类别(即低成本洪水淹没传感器)进行了效益成本分析,该产品可以很容易地部署在无线或物联网网络中。使用这些传感器可以提高洪水预警系统的覆盖范围并延长交付周期。这项新技术的生产成本只是具有类似能力和可靠性的现有传感器的一小部分,运营成本也不高。收益取决于以下因素,如提高警报提前期以减少洪水造成的财产损失、死亡和伤害的能力,以及新传感器的采用程度。我们的分析表明,效益成本比为1.4比1。然而,我们的结果是基于几个假设的。因此,我们进行了广泛的敏感性分析,以确定我们的结果是稳健的。DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000596。©2022美国土木工程师学会。
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引用次数: 1
Review of Atlas of Forecasts: Modeling and Mapping Desirable Futures by Katy BörnerMIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 02142; 2021; ISBN 9780262045957; 214 pp.; $39.95. 回顾预测地图集:建模和绘制理想的未来凯蒂BörnerMIT出版社,剑桥,马萨诸塞州,02142;2021;ISBN 9780262045957;214页;39.95美元。
IF 2.7 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1061/nhrefo.nheng-1741
Ross J. Guida
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引用次数: 0
Probabilistic Modeling of Small Business Recovery after a Hurricane: A Case Study of 2017 Hurricane Harvey 飓风后小企业恢复的概率建模:以2017年飓风哈维为例
IF 2.7 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000602
Daan Liang, Brad R. Ewing, E. Cardella, Lingguang Song
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引用次数: 1
A Social Welfare–Based Infrastructure Resilience Assessment Framework: Toward Equitable Resilience for Infrastructure Development 基于社会福利的基础设施弹性评估框架:实现基础设施发展的公平弹性
IF 2.7 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000597
Sunil Dhakal, Lu Zhang
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引用次数: 1
Reviewers 评论家
3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000601
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引用次数: 0
Influence of Seismic Motions on the Behavior of Cantilever Sheet Pile Wall Subjected to Infinite Uniform Surcharge Loading 地震运动对无限均布附加荷载作用下悬臂板桩墙体性能的影响
IF 2.7 3区 工程技术 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1061/nhrefo.nheng-1588
A. Singh, K. Chatterjee
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引用次数: 0
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