Conservation Science and Practice最新文献

In an era of environmental instability, climate-informed land-use planning allows preparation for a more resilient future. By identifying places with high climate-change refugia potential and climate connectivity, management and stewardship plans can be adapted over time to achieve biodiversity goals. The objective of the Climate-informed Conservation Planning project is to provide an efficient pathway for collaborative planning between Indigenous and provincial governments to develop a long-term management approach to maintain environmental and cultural values while reducing the risks from climate change. Working directly with the shíshálh-BC Modernized Land Use Planning table on the South Coast of British Columbia to support climate-resilient planning, this process identified areas projected to have refugia potential, to maximize habitat connectivity, to monitor ecosystem resilience variables, and to realize planning objectives within dynamic adaptive planning cycles. Key activities include: (a) introducing the climate-change refugia concept and other knowledge translation activities, (b) identifying and evaluating spatial priorities for conservation management with higher potential for climate-change refugia and connectivity, (c) customizing priority scenarios with additional data and local knowledge to highlight where the best conservation investments might contribute to local and provincial biodiversity goals, and (d) suggestions for implementing the plan dynamically and proactively to mitigate current and emerging environmental risks with monitoring, reporting, and proactive adaptation planning cycles.

The impacts of climate change are already affecting many species and habitats, presenting challenges for species management and conservation. Protecting climate refugia—areas buffered from climate shifts where species can persist despite broader changes—has been proposed as a tool for managing species under climate change. Although many studies have mapped climate refugia, few have identified them for specific species at scales relevant to local management. To address this gap, we identified potential climate refugia for seven species of concern in the Pacific Northwestern United States: Cascade torrent salamander (Rhyacotriton cascadae), Rocky Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphus montanus), coastal tailed frog (Ascaphus truei), Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), pygmy rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis), fisher (Pekania pennanti), and White-headed Woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus). Collaborating with managers and species experts, we identified key factors influencing refugia locations and integrated multiple spatial data layers to map potential refugia for each species. For the three aquatic species, potential refugia included streams with cooler current and projected future temperatures, sustained future streamflow, and watersheds with greater canopy cover and cool valley bottoms. For the terrestrial species, refugia were linked to fire risk, ecological transformations, range shifts, soil moisture, and topographic complexity. Identifying potential refugia can guide conservation by prioritizing areas for protection and management. Sites with high-quality habitat but limited refugia potential could become conservation priorities if habitat quality declines, whereas lower-quality sites with greater refugia potential may warrant further protection. Areas with poor refugia potential may benefit from management actions to enhance resilience. Although expanding this approach to all species of concern would be valuable, it remains resource intensive. We conclude with recommendations for improving the efficiency of refugia identification in future studies.

Climate change is reshaping landscapes in ways that challenge conventional approaches to conservation and resource planning. The concept of climate-change refugia—areas with the potential to buffer species and ecosystems from the effects of climate change—offers a valuable lens for identifying strategic opportunities for long-term stewardship. Building on this foundation, we present a flexible, climate-informed approach to landscape planning that integrates climate-change exposure and refugia information into a five-step process: (1) define core ecological, cultural, and land resource values and identify those most at risk; (2) assess landscape capacity as a function of climate-change exposure and conservation capacity (i.e., landscape condition); (3) develop place-based strategies and identify relevant spatial data products; (4) incorporate macrorefugia, microrefugia, and corridors to align land-use designations with strategies; and (5) implement, monitor, and adaptively refine refugia-based planning over time. Recognizing variation in planning needs and contexts, our guidance supports the practical use of spatial refugia metrics to inform land-use, conservation, and resource management decisions.

Grasslands are globally imperiled. Centuries of intensive agriculture, anthropogenic development, woody encroachment, and the disruption of historical disturbance regimes have degraded native grasslands with wide-ranging impacts on grassland species. Exacerbating these threats, modern climate change is rapidly affecting these highly exposed systems. Grasslands are perhaps the most intensively managed ecosystem in North America; private landowners, governmental, and nonprofit agencies expend considerable resources creating and maintaining grasslands using prescribed burning, managed grazing, and mechanical restoration. Climate-change refugia are critical for climate-vulnerable species and can help buffer populations from acute and chronic climate-related stressors. Given the widespread geography of grasslands and the intensive management they require, there is untapped potential to integrate multi-scaled concepts of climate-change refugia with current grassland conservation strategies. Using declining grassland birds as a case study, we explore how the concepts of climate-change refugia, spanning from macro-scale conservation planning to microclimate management, may aid in the conservation and management of climate-vulnerable grassland species.

To reduce detrimental impacts of anthropogenic change, natural resource managers often look for place-based solutions to minimize biodiversity loss. Climate-change refugia, areas buffered from contemporary climate change, can enable the persistence of valued natural resources and prolong the benefits of conservation action. Here we combine climate-change refugia modeling with structured decision-making to inform conservation decisions for the endangered foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii) in the Sierra Nevada region of California, USA. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to identify areas projected to remain suitable into the 2040s and the 2080s under an RCP 8.5 emissions scenario, as well as areas projected to transition to suitable habitat during this time. We integrated these projections with a structured decision-making process to align management strategies with refugia model outcomes for R. boylii in a subset of the study area. Habitat suitability for R. boylii is projected to decline in the study area by over 90% by the 2040s and by a subsequent 15% by the 2080s. Climate-change refugia are projected to occupy ~7% of present-day suitable habitat, with high agreement between GCMs and model timesteps. Areas projected to transition to suitable habitat within the existing R. boylii clade boundaries are negligible. Collectively, climate-change refugia modeling and structured decision-making provide opportunities to improve resource allocation and empower conservation practitioners in climate change adaptation for at-risk species.

As the impacts of anthropogenic climate change increase, conservation of climate-change refugia has become a key strategy for effective environmental stewardship. Over the last 5 years, the field of climate-change refugia conservation has made exciting advances, shifting from concepts and theory to refugia mapping and implementation. However, few studies have advanced to action on the ground; while 84% of studies identified and mapped refugia, only 4% involved implementing management action. Moreover, taxonomic and geographic gaps remain, with most studies focused on terrestrial plants and vertebrates in Europe and North America. Here, we outline impediments to implementation following the steps of the Climate-Change Refugia Conservation Cycle. Based on a systematic literature review, we elucidate advances and obstacles with examples from a diversity of systems and sectors from across the world and highlight emerging work bridging the gap between research and implementation.

Coniferous forests across the southwestern United States are under threat from extreme wildfire, climate change, and other stressors. Addressing these interacting threats to forest resilience through intentional management is critical to prevent further forest loss. We employed the climate change refugia conservation cycle to co-produce a decision framework for climate-informed management of southern California's montane forests through strategic identification of treatments. The framework integrates climate-adapted refugia, areas buffered from the impacts of multiple stressors due to their inherent landscape characteristics, with vulnerabilities that can be reduced and priority assets to protect. The resulting map identified that 45% of the study area had low refugial capacity and low vulnerability, with monitoring identified as the most prudent strategy. An almost equal portion (44%) of the landscape had high refugial capacity, indicating that the strategies of resisting change by maintaining low vulnerability and accommodating change by reducing vulnerabilities where they are high could support forest persistence. The remaining 12% of the landscape had low refugial capacity and high vulnerability, suggesting a transform strategy where managers may opt to facilitate a state shift to maintain ecosystem function. Here we describe how this framework is being applied to inform planning and management with integration of climate-adapted approaches.

Research on climate change refugia in aquatic systems frequently emphasizes cold-water habitats and resistance to increasing temperature. Higher-elevation locations are often identified as important for preserving conditions suitable for cold-water organisms or communities. However, this concept remains understudied in lentic compared to lotic systems, even as lakes variably experience pronounced climate-related impacts including ice loss and higher temperatures. Lake responses to climate depend on characteristics such as landscape position, but the role of elevation is not well-documented and associated biological responses are unclear. Here, we describe spring ice and thermal dynamics in small remote lakes in Maine, USA, ranging from 76 to 955 m above sea level, and how temperature influences zooplankton phenology and community composition. Ice persisted on average 8 days longer in high-elevation (>500 m) lakes and, after ice breakup, high-elevation lakes warmed faster (0.3°C/day) than low-elevation lakes (0.2°C/day), and reached maximum temperatures 45 days earlier on average. Zooplankton phenology was driven by water temperature, but zooplankton taxa varied in response to lake conditions, shaping different zooplankton assemblages in high- and low-elevation sites. This suggests that refugial high-elevation lakes with prolonged ice and cold spring conditions could present an important regional conservation priority.

Natural resource managers and policymakers need actionable climate data to guide conservation decisions. Conserving climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, is increasingly considered an effective strategy for adaptation. Despite tropical species facing heightened vulnerability to climate change, the tropics remain underserved in climate adaptation research. We coproduced with Tanzanian partners the first comprehensive assessment of climate change refugia across Tanzania through extensive consultation, in-person conversations, and field visits to priority ecosystems, ensuring our analysis addressed local conservation needs and decision-making contexts. We developed species distribution models for 33 terrestrial animal species using maximum entropy and boosted regression tree algorithms. We projected future suitable habitats for SSP126 and SSP585, for 2011–2040 and 2071–2100, using GFDL Earth System and the UK Earth System models. More than half under SSP126 and 79% of focal species under SSP585 lost their suitable habitat by 2100. Serengeti National Park, Northern Highlands Forest Reserve, and the Eastern Arc Mountains emerged as key climate change refugia, while other protected areas, including Kigosi and Ugalla River National Parks, had no climate change refugia. This assessment provides actionable insights for Tanzania's conservation prioritization while identifying critical research gaps in western and montane ecosystems.