Conservation Science and Practice最新文献

To reduce detrimental impacts of anthropogenic change, natural resource managers often look for place-based solutions to minimize biodiversity loss. Climate-change refugia, areas buffered from contemporary climate change, can enable the persistence of valued natural resources and prolong the benefits of conservation action. Here we combine climate-change refugia modeling with structured decision-making to inform conservation decisions for the endangered foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii) in the Sierra Nevada region of California, USA. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to identify areas projected to remain suitable into the 2040s and the 2080s under an RCP 8.5 emissions scenario, as well as areas projected to transition to suitable habitat during this time. We integrated these projections with a structured decision-making process to align management strategies with refugia model outcomes for R. boylii in a subset of the study area. Habitat suitability for R. boylii is projected to decline in the study area by over 90% by the 2040s and by a subsequent 15% by the 2080s. Climate-change refugia are projected to occupy ~7% of present-day suitable habitat, with high agreement between GCMs and model timesteps. Areas projected to transition to suitable habitat within the existing R. boylii clade boundaries are negligible. Collectively, climate-change refugia modeling and structured decision-making provide opportunities to improve resource allocation and empower conservation practitioners in climate change adaptation for at-risk species.

As the impacts of anthropogenic climate change increase, conservation of climate-change refugia has become a key strategy for effective environmental stewardship. Over the last 5 years, the field of climate-change refugia conservation has made exciting advances, shifting from concepts and theory to refugia mapping and implementation. However, few studies have advanced to action on the ground; while 84% of studies identified and mapped refugia, only 4% involved implementing management action. Moreover, taxonomic and geographic gaps remain, with most studies focused on terrestrial plants and vertebrates in Europe and North America. Here, we outline impediments to implementation following the steps of the Climate-Change Refugia Conservation Cycle. Based on a systematic literature review, we elucidate advances and obstacles with examples from a diversity of systems and sectors from across the world and highlight emerging work bridging the gap between research and implementation.

Coniferous forests across the southwestern United States are under threat from extreme wildfire, climate change, and other stressors. Addressing these interacting threats to forest resilience through intentional management is critical to prevent further forest loss. We employed the climate change refugia conservation cycle to co-produce a decision framework for climate-informed management of southern California's montane forests through strategic identification of treatments. The framework integrates climate-adapted refugia, areas buffered from the impacts of multiple stressors due to their inherent landscape characteristics, with vulnerabilities that can be reduced and priority assets to protect. The resulting map identified that 45% of the study area had low refugial capacity and low vulnerability, with monitoring identified as the most prudent strategy. An almost equal portion (44%) of the landscape had high refugial capacity, indicating that the strategies of resisting change by maintaining low vulnerability and accommodating change by reducing vulnerabilities where they are high could support forest persistence. The remaining 12% of the landscape had low refugial capacity and high vulnerability, suggesting a transform strategy where managers may opt to facilitate a state shift to maintain ecosystem function. Here we describe how this framework is being applied to inform planning and management with integration of climate-adapted approaches.

Research on climate change refugia in aquatic systems frequently emphasizes cold-water habitats and resistance to increasing temperature. Higher-elevation locations are often identified as important for preserving conditions suitable for cold-water organisms or communities. However, this concept remains understudied in lentic compared to lotic systems, even as lakes variably experience pronounced climate-related impacts including ice loss and higher temperatures. Lake responses to climate depend on characteristics such as landscape position, but the role of elevation is not well-documented and associated biological responses are unclear. Here, we describe spring ice and thermal dynamics in small remote lakes in Maine, USA, ranging from 76 to 955 m above sea level, and how temperature influences zooplankton phenology and community composition. Ice persisted on average 8 days longer in high-elevation (>500 m) lakes and, after ice breakup, high-elevation lakes warmed faster (0.3°C/day) than low-elevation lakes (0.2°C/day), and reached maximum temperatures 45 days earlier on average. Zooplankton phenology was driven by water temperature, but zooplankton taxa varied in response to lake conditions, shaping different zooplankton assemblages in high- and low-elevation sites. This suggests that refugial high-elevation lakes with prolonged ice and cold spring conditions could present an important regional conservation priority.

Natural resource managers and policymakers need actionable climate data to guide conservation decisions. Conserving climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, is increasingly considered an effective strategy for adaptation. Despite tropical species facing heightened vulnerability to climate change, the tropics remain underserved in climate adaptation research. We coproduced with Tanzanian partners the first comprehensive assessment of climate change refugia across Tanzania through extensive consultation, in-person conversations, and field visits to priority ecosystems, ensuring our analysis addressed local conservation needs and decision-making contexts. We developed species distribution models for 33 terrestrial animal species using maximum entropy and boosted regression tree algorithms. We projected future suitable habitats for SSP126 and SSP585, for 2011–2040 and 2071–2100, using GFDL Earth System and the UK Earth System models. More than half under SSP126 and 79% of focal species under SSP585 lost their suitable habitat by 2100. Serengeti National Park, Northern Highlands Forest Reserve, and the Eastern Arc Mountains emerged as key climate change refugia, while other protected areas, including Kigosi and Ugalla River National Parks, had no climate change refugia. This assessment provides actionable insights for Tanzania's conservation prioritization while identifying critical research gaps in western and montane ecosystems.

Concepts and models of fire refugia are increasingly important components of forest management and adaptation discussions in the context of wildland fire, forest and habitat conservation, and global change. Recent stand-replacing fires in mature and old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the western United States have increased land manager and scientific interest in fire refugia that can provide important ecosystem services. Here we provide an overview of fire refugia concepts and products being actively developed and applied in forests of the PNW (Washington, Oregon, California), characterize key distinctions among fire refugia in different biophysical settings, present three case studies to illustrate applications, and briefly describe future directions for these concepts in scientist-practitioner partnerships. By increasing awareness of fire refugia concepts, datasets, and decision support tools, we aim to bolster the adaptive capacity of practitioners, managers, and partners invested in ecosystem management, while strengthening the long-horizon collaborations necessary for applied science and conservation.

Central European peatlands are important biodiversity hotspots and potential climate-change refugia, preserving post-glacial relict species and offering insights into long-term ecological functioning. Despite pressures from climate change and land-use disturbances, some relict populations persist even in degraded sites, with genetic studies revealing both their diversity and growing vulnerability to isolation. This paper highlights the importance of understanding the mechanisms underpinning the climate-change refugia potential of a peatland, particularly the role of microclimatic conditions. Integrating paleoecological, ecological, and biogeographical perspectives is key to safeguarding peatlands' role in biodiversity conservation and climate regulation.

As the frequency and severity of wildfires continue to rise, fire refugia could play a critical role in reducing impacts on affected wildlife species. Fire refugia are areas which are naturally less likely to burn, for example, due to local climatic conditions. Yet, they may also exist outside of areas traditionally considered as refugia, such as areas close to human infrastructure, where active fire management strategies prioritize the safety of humans and their assets. We hypothesized that wildlife habitat within or in proximity to human infrastructure could function as fire refugia, and tested this for Endangered koala (Phascolarctos cinereus). We used fire extent and severity mapping of New South Wales, Australia, to investigate the relationship between land use and the likelihood of severe to extreme fire at locations where koalas had been recorded in the preceding 15 years. Our findings show that the likelihood of severe to extreme fire occurrence was lower in areas with intensive human use (residential, utilities and services, transport, industry and manufacturing, intensive farming, and infrastructure), and increased outwards from these areas. Our results support the notion that remaining koala habitat in urban and peri-urban landscapes could play a vital role as fire refugia in the face of climate change. We argue that populations of at-risk species inhabiting these areas should be targeted for increased protection and management, while emphasizing the continued importance of protecting remaining natural habitats.

Managing climate-change refugia is a commonly recommended strategy for conserving biodiversity. However, few efforts have moved beyond the modeling phase of refugia science to management. Here, we present two case studies that move beyond modeling to testing models and management. In the first case study, we model refugia for two plant species (three-toothed cinquefoil [Sibbaldia tridentata] and black crowberry [Empetrum nigrum]) in Acadia National Park, Maine, United States, and use greenhouse experiments, common-garden experiments, and participatory science to evaluate the output of those models. Our results suggest that three-toothed cinquefoil growth and survival are reduced under increased temperatures as models predict. However, other variables (e.g., soil moisture and salinity) might also be important to modeling and managing refugia for both species. National Park Service staff and partners have been directing restoration for both species to refugia, but are also exploring other adaptation strategies. In the second case study, we demonstrate that existing prioritization processes for habitat restoration in national parks of the northeastern United States rarely incorporate refugia for two indicator species: Jefferson salamander (Ambystoma jeffersonianum) and grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum). Our work demonstrates that moving beyond modeling can improve models and lead to new management insights.

Human–wildlife conflict (HWC) is a growing threat to conservation and human well-being. It is increasingly recognized that HWC is largely human–human conflict over wildlife, which is frequently characterized by deep-rooted differences among stakeholder values, identities, cultures, and perceptions about wildlife. Such conflicts cannot be resolved in a lasting manner with superficial dispute resolution and conflict management approaches. Therefore, conflict transformation, which addresses deeper, systemic differences and causes of conflict, such as differences in cultural approaches and perceptions through iterative creative change processes, has gained increased prominence in conservation. Over the last decade, mental models—representations in people's minds of how parts of the world work—have received increasing attention in conservation, as they enable the structured elicitation and discussion of differences among stakeholder views and their underlying assumptions to enable participatory reframing. However, the potential contribution of mental models to HWC and to navigating and transforming conflicts over wildlife has received little attention. We present a framework for how mental models can be elicited and used to support the transformation of conflicts over wildlife.