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Macroeconomic effects of a declining wage share: A meta‐analysis of the functional income distribution and aggregate demand 工资份额下降的宏观经济影响:对功能性收入分配和总需求的元分析
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-09 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12614
Quirin Dammerer, Ludwig List, Miriam Rehm, Matthias Schnetzer
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between the functional distribution of income and aggregate demand, which investigates whether declining wage shares increase (“profit‐led”) or decrease (“wage‐led”) demand. It conducts a meta‐regression analysis of 33 studies with 578 estimates for total and domestic demand, covering up to 163 years and 59 countries and regions. Our results suggest that, on average and across all countries, total demand is predominantly profit‐led and domestic demand mainly wage‐led. The effects in the literature range between 0.8 and −0.3 within one standard deviation for domestic demand and between 0.4 and −0.7 for total demand, which are economically significant at the outer bounds. We find mixed evidence for publication selectivity, which may affect the size but not the direction of the results in the literature. If one was to nonetheless correct for this, then total demand would be less profit‐led or statistically insignificant. A set of moderator variables, including publication characteristics, estimation strategies, the covariates included in the studies’ estimation functions, and, in particular, controls for time and space, help explain the variation in the empirical estimates.
本文回顾了有关收入功能分配与总需求之间关系的理论和实证文献,探讨了工资份额下降是增加("利润主导型")还是减少("工资主导型")需求的问题。本报告对 33 项研究进行了元回归分析,对总需求和国内需求进行了 578 次估计,涵盖了长达 163 年、59 个国家和地区。我们的结果表明,平均而言,在所有国家,总需求主要由利润主导,而国内需求主要由工资主导。在一个标准差内,文献中对国内需求的影响介于 0.8 和-0.3 之间,对总需求的影响介于 0.4 和-0.7 之间,这些影响在外部界限上具有经济意义。我们发现出版选择性的证据不一,这可能会影响文献中结果的大小,但不会影响其方向。如果不对其进行校正,那么总需求的利润导向性就会降低,或者在统计上不显著。一系列调节变量,包括出版物特征、估算策略、研究估算函数中包含的协变量,尤其是对时间和空间的控制,有助于解释实证估算结果的差异。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable innovations, knowledge and the role of proximity: A systematic literature review 可持续创新、知识和邻近性的作用:系统文献综述
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12617
Ulrich Wilke, Andreas Pyka
Innovations can substantially contribute to the transformation toward sustainability if they induce a positive social and/or environmental impact. Such sustainable innovations differ considerably from conventional, purely economic innovations. The main difference stems from the different knowledge bases necessary for the development of these innovations. These knowledge bases are widely dispersed across different actors from business, academia, government, and civil society. Following the innovation system approach, we look at actor constellations, linkages between actors, and knowledge flows within networks that generate sustainable innovations. For this purpose, we conduct a systematic literature review, focusing on the concept of proximity and its five dimensions (geographical, cognitive, institutional, organizational, and social proximity). The results show that all proximity dimensions, as well as the interdependencies between them, are relevant for analyzing knowledge flows leading to sustainable innovations. The interplay of the different proximity dimensions can be described via two mechanisms, one being reinforcement and the other one being either substitution or overlap. We conclude that for the occurrence of radical, systemic innovations, which have the potential of altering the prevailing socio-economic paradigm toward greater sustainability, a combination of low cognitive and low (micro-) institutional proximity combined with high organizational, social, or geographical proximity, appears particularly conducive.
创新如果能对社会和/或环境产生积极影响,就能极大地促进向可持续性的转变。这种可持续创新与传统的、纯粹的经济创新有很大不同。主要区别在于开发这些创新所需的知识基础不同。这些知识基础广泛分散于企业、学术界、政府和民间社会的不同参与者。按照创新系统方法,我们研究了产生可持续创新的网络中的参与者组合、参与者之间的联系和知识流。为此,我们进行了系统的文献综述,重点研究了接近性的概念及其五个维度(地理接近性、认知接近性、制度接近性、组织接近性和社会接近性)。研究结果表明,所有邻近性维度以及它们之间的相互依存关系都与分析导致可持续创新的知识流相关。不同邻近度维度之间的相互作用可以通过两种机制来描述,一种是强化机制,另一种是替代或重叠机制。我们的结论是,对于有可能改变现有社会经济模式、实现更大程度可持续性的激进、系统性创新而言,低认知和低(微观)制度接近性与高组织、社会或地理接近性的结合似乎特别有利。
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引用次数: 0
Inequality in history: A long‐run view 历史上的不平等长期观点
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12616
Guido Alfani
This article provides an overview of long‐term trends in income and wealth inequality, from ca. 1300 until today. It discusses recent acquisitions in terms of inequality measurement, building upon earlier research and systematically connecting preindustrial, industrial, and post‐industrial tendencies. It shows that in the last seven centuries or so, inequality of both income and wealth has tended to grow continuously, with two exceptions: the century or so following the Black Death pandemic of 1347–52, and the period from the beginning of World War I until the mid‐1970s. It discusses recent encompassing hypotheses about the factors leading to long‐run inequality change, highlighting their relative merits and faults, and arguing for the need to pay close attention to the historical context.
本文概述了从约 1300 年至今收入和财富不平等的长期趋势。文章在早期研究的基础上,系统地将工业化前、工业化中和工业化后的趋势联系起来,讨论了近期在不平等测量方面取得的成果。报告显示,在过去七个世纪左右的时间里,收入和财富的不平等呈持续增长趋势,只有两个例外:1347-52 年黑死病大流行后的一个世纪左右,以及第一次世界大战开始后到 20 世纪 70 年代中期。本报告讨论了最近关于导致长期不平等变化因素的各种假说,强调了这些假说的相对优缺点,并认为有必要密切关注历史背景。
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引用次数: 0
Productivity measurement: Reassessing the production function from micro to macro 生产力测量:从微观到宏观重新评估生产函数
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12615
Josh Martin, Rebecca Riley
The productivity growth slowdown in advanced economies during the early decades of the 21st century has led to renewed interest in economic measurement. Measured productivity growth has largely evaporated, yet in many ways, the average person is better off than at any time in history and technological advance is ever evident. Are we simply, or at least in part, mismeasuring productivity change? More fundamentally, are we measuring an outdated or otherwise less relevant economic concept? What should and can we measure in the interest of developing evidence‐based policy solutions to support productivity growth? This paper reviews some of the recent advances in economic measurement and points to an expanded productivity measurement research agenda arising from these questions.
21 世纪初的几十年间,发达经济体的生产率增长放缓,重新引发了人们对经济计量的兴趣。经过衡量的生产率增长在很大程度上已经消失,但在许多方面,普通人的生活比历史上任何时候都要好,技术进步也是有目共睹的。我们是否仅仅或至少部分错误地衡量了生产力的变化?更根本的是,我们是否在衡量一个过时的或不那么相关的经济概念?为了制定支持生产力增长的循证政策解决方案,我们应该衡量什么,能够衡量什么?本文回顾了经济计量的一些最新进展,并指出了由这些问题引发的生产力计量研究议程的扩展。
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引用次数: 0
Law & Economics at sixty: Mapping the field with bibliometric and machine learning tools 法律与经济学六十岁:利用文献计量学和机器学习工具绘制该领域的地图
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12613
Elena Kantorowicz‐Reznichenko, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz
As the year 2020 marks the 60th anniversary of the landmark paper in the Law & Economics (L&E) field by Ronald Coase—The Problem of Social Cost—we provide a systematic bibliometric analysis of the development of this field over the years. We look at the output and input side of knowledge production in the field of L&E. The former consists of the volume of production and thematic coverage of the field. The latter—input—looks at the producers of knowledge, the institutional and country affiliations of authors, and the intellectual structure of the field. Thus, the “who”, the “where” knowledge is produced as is also that of on “whose” shoulders the field stands. We demonstrate that Law & Economics shifted from more theory driven work to empirical and evidence‐based contributions. Likewise, we show that the Law & Economics field tends to be dominated by authors affiliated with economics departments, and crucially; however, more impactful research seems to be produced by inter‐disciplinary cooperation. The L&E field further resembles the economics domain in terms of co‐authorship patterns, number of citations and lengths of papers. Finally, we look at diversity in the field of L&E and show, for instance, that the share of female scholars has been steadily growing for the last two decades.
2020 年是罗纳德-科斯(Ronald Coase)在法律与经济学(L&E)领域发表里程碑式论文《社会成本问题》(The Problem of Social Cost)60 周年,我们对该领域多年来的发展进行了系统的文献计量分析。我们研究了法律和经济学领域知识生产的产出和投入方面。前者包括该领域的产量和专题覆盖面。后者--投入--则是指知识的生产者、作者所在的机构和国家以及该领域的知识结构。因此,"谁 "和 "在哪里 "生产知识,也是该领域 "站在谁的肩膀上 "的问题。我们表明,法律与经济学已从更多的理论研究转向以经验和证据为基础的研究。同样,我们还表明,法律与经济学领域往往由经济学系的作者主导,但关键的是,跨学科合作似乎能产生更有影响力的研究成果。在合著模式、引用次数和论文长度方面,法律与经济学领域与经济学领域更为相似。最后,我们审视了 L&E 领域的多样性,并举例说明,在过去二十年中,女性学者的比例一直在稳步增长。
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引用次数: 0
Fat‐tailed DSGE models: A survey and new results 胖尾 DSGE 模型:调查与新成果
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12612
Chetan Dave, M. Sorge
We review recent advances in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory concerned with the emergence of fat‐tailed time‐series distributions. Focusing on mechanisms that are firmly grounded in structural equilibrium models, we provide a common reference framework to organize existing contributions according to whether they entail extreme business cycle swings as an endogenous response to small and short‐lived shocks (“thin in, fat out”), or rather as an automatic consequence of large and/or heteroskedastic exogenous impulses (“fat in, fat out”). Within the former class, non‐Gaussian features of equilibrium patterns can endogenously emerge in fully rational, Gaussian environments. Using an empirically plausible real business cycle framework, we also report novel simulation‐based evidence that helps reconcile theoretical predictions with the documented higher‐order properties of time‐series data for output measures.
我们回顾了动态随机一般均衡理论中有关肥尾时间序列分布出现的最新进展。我们将重点放在以结构均衡模型为坚实基础的机制上,并提供了一个共同的参考框架,根据这些机制是将极端商业周期波动作为对小规模和短期冲击的内生反应("瘦进胖出"),还是作为大规模和/或异方差外生脉冲的自动结果("胖进胖出"),来组织现有的研究成果。在前一类情况中,均衡模式的非高斯特征可以在完全理性的高斯环境中内生出现。我们还利用一个经验上可信的真实商业周期框架,报告了基于模拟的新证据,有助于协调理论预测与产出指标时间序列数据的高阶特性。
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引用次数: 0
Artificial Intelligence and Big Data in Sustainable Entrepreneurship 人工智能和大数据在可持续创业中的应用
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12611
Steve J. Bickley, Alison Macintyre, Benno Torgler
There is an urgent need to transition our economy, society, and culture towards systems and actions that facilitate ecological sustainability. Such radical change requires equally radical transformation of approaches to decision making and resource use. Sustainable entrepreneurship (SE) is often presented as the answer to meeting the triple-bottom-line challenges that businesses face; however, there are very real limits to what it can achieve. SE is in the early stages of adopting tools at the technological frontier that offer empirical guidance at every point of an entrepreneurial decision-making process. Big Data (BD) advances the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) to inform decision making, while also charting pathways to achieve desired outcomes. So far, the interactions between AI, BD, and SE have been generally under-studied. In this primarily conceptual paper, we address the lack of work consolidating and synthesizing these literatures. We suggest that AI and BD readily contribute to further sustainable development of the weak form, but that it also holds great promise for achieving the strong sustainability ideal. We offer two propositions regarding how the integration of AI and BD can inform/support SE. We conclude by mapping out potential avenues for future research.
我们的经济、社会和文化迫切需要向有利于生态可持续性的系统和行动转型。这种根本性的变革要求决策和资源利用的方法发生同样根本性的转变。可持续创业(SE)常常被视为应对企业所面临的三重底线挑战的答案;然而,它所能实现的目标存在着非常现实的限制。可持续创业正处于采用技术前沿工具的早期阶段,这些工具可在创业决策过程的每个环节提供经验指导。大数据(BD)提升了人工智能(AI)为决策提供信息的潜力,同时也为实现预期成果规划了路径。迄今为止,人们对人工智能、BD 和 SE 之间的互动研究普遍不足。在这篇以概念性为主的论文中,我们将探讨这些文献之间缺乏整合与综合的问题。我们认为,人工智能和企业发展很容易促进弱形式的进一步可持续发展,但它对实现强可持续性理想也大有可为。我们就人工智能与企业发展的结合如何为可持续发展提供信息/支持提出了两个命题。最后,我们规划了未来研究的潜在途径。
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引用次数: 0
Borrower-based macroprudential measures and credit growth: How biased is the existing literature? 基于借款人的宏观审慎措施与信贷增长:现有文献的偏差有多大?
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-06 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12608
Simona Malovaná, Martin Hodula, Zuzana Gric, Josef Bajzík
This paper analyzes over 700 estimates from 34 studies on the impact of borrower-based measures (such as loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and debt-service-to-income ratios) on bank loan provision. Our dataset reveals notable fragmentation in the literature concerning variable transformations, methods, and estimated coefficients. We run a meta-analysis on a subsample of 422 semi-elasticities from 23 studies employing a consistent estimation framework to draw an economic interpretation. We confirm strong publication bias, particularly against positive and statistically insignificant estimates. After correcting for this bias, the effect indicates a credit growth reduction of −0.6 to −1.1 percentage points following the occurrence of borrower-based measures, significantly lower than the unadjusted simple mean effect of the collected estimates. Additionally, our study examines the contexts of these estimates, finding that beyond publication bias, model specification and estimation method are vital in explaining the variation in reported coefficients.
本文分析了 34 项研究中的 700 多项估计,这些研究涉及基于借款人的衡量指标(如贷款价值比、债务收入比和偿债收入比)对银行贷款拨备的影响。我们的数据集显示,在变量转换、方法和估计系数方面,文献存在明显的分散性。我们对 23 项研究中的 422 个半弹性子样本进行了元分析,采用了一致的估计框架,得出了经济学解释。我们证实了强烈的出版偏差,尤其是针对正值和在统计上不显著的估计值。在对这种偏差进行校正后,效果表明,在采取基于借款人的措施后,信贷增长下降了-0.6 至-1.1 个百分点,明显低于所收集的估计值中未经调整的简单平均效果。此外,我们的研究还考察了这些估计值的背景,发现除了出版偏差之外,模型规范和估计方法对于解释报告系数的变化也至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Expectations, beliefs, and perceptions in the modern economy: An overview 现代经济中的期望、信念和观念:综述
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-06 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12610
Edda Claus, F. Antoine Dedewanou

Expectations matter in dynamic models where decisions in one period have implications for outcomes in subsequent periods. Rational expectations were once the dominant assumption but its popularity is waning. Human decision-making deviates from rationality suggesting important influences of perceptions and beliefs on decision-making. The articles in this special issue provide up-to-date reviews of the importance of expectations, beliefs, and perceptions including the role of social media in shaping them.

在动态模型中,一个时期的决策会对随后几个时期的结果产生影响,因此预期很重要。理性预期曾一度是主流假设,但其受欢迎程度正在减弱。人类的决策偏离了理性,这表明认知和信念对决策有着重要影响。本特刊中的文章对预期、信念和认知的重要性进行了最新评述,包括社交媒体在塑造它们方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
From the Great Divergence to South–South Divergence: New comparative horizons in global economic history 从大分化到南南分化:全球经济史的新比较视野
IF 5.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12609
Ewout Frankema
The Great Divergence debate has been the leading conversation in economic history for the past 25 years. This review article explores new comparative horizons in global economic history. I argue that questions of South–South Divergence form a logical and timely extension to the Great Divergence research agenda. Asia's economic renaissance did not only put an end to a century-spanning process of widening global income disparities, it also set a new process of divergence within the global south in motion. Deeper understandings of the historical nature and origins of this transition are pertinent in light of the increasing demographic and economic weight of the global south. South–south comparisons also offer an opportunity to counter the dominance of western-centered and north–south perspectives and incentivize the development of new approaches and theories that go beyond mainstream concepts designed by development economists and political scientists. I argue that these novel approaches will have to grapple with the opportunities and constraints to “late” development being shaped by the quadruple challenge of vast technology gaps, limited state autonomy, global competition, and rapidly closing land and resource frontiers.
过去 25 年来,"大分化 "之争一直是经济史上的主要话题。这篇评论文章探讨了全球经济史的新比较视野。我认为,南南分歧问题是对大分歧研究议程合乎逻辑的及时延伸。亚洲的经济复兴不仅结束了一个世纪以来全球收入差距不断扩大的进程,而且还启动了全球南方内部新的分化进程。鉴于全球南部的人口和经济比重日益增加,深入了解这一转变的历史性质和起源具有现实意义。南南比较还提供了一个机会,可借以对抗以西方为中心和南北视角的主导地位,并鼓励发展新的方法和理论,超越发展经济学家和政治学家设计的主流概念。我认为,这些新方法必须努力应对 "后发 "发展的机遇和制约因素,这些机遇和制约因素是由巨大的技术差距、有限的国家自主权、全球竞争以及迅速缩小的土地和资源边界这四重挑战形成的。
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引用次数: 0
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