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Recent Hybrid Machine Learning Approaches in Wind Speed Forecasting—A Review 混合机器学习方法在风速预测中的研究进展
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1111/joes.70005
Uğur Berkay Kahveci, Burak Barutçu

Wind energy stands out as an increasingly popular energy source to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. However, since wind energy is not continuous, the inability to predict how much energy can be produced at any time prevents further development of wind power generation. Therefore, wind speed forecasting studies are crucial to maximize the benefits of wind energy and facilitate accurate network planning, especially during peak usage periods. This paper comprehensively reviews hybrid machine learning studies forecasting wind speed in the last 7 years to gather insights and reveal better methods. Motivations, methodology, computational complexity, and performance improvement percentages of developed models over standard benchmark models are compared. Gathered insights, future directions, and the economic impacts of wind energy are also presented.

风能作为一种日益受欢迎的能源,在缓解气候变化的不利影响方面脱颖而出。然而,由于风能不是连续的,无法预测在任何时候可以产生多少能量阻碍了风力发电的进一步发展。因此,风速预测研究对于最大限度地发挥风能的效益和促进准确的电网规划至关重要,特别是在高峰使用期间。本文全面回顾了过去7年混合机器学习预测风速的研究,以收集见解并揭示更好的方法。对开发模型与标准基准模型的动机、方法、计算复杂性和性能改进百分比进行了比较。收集的见解,未来的方向,并提出了风能的经济影响。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding UK Productivity Using a Macroeconomic Lens 从宏观经济的角度理解英国的生产力
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1111/joes.70001
Jagjit S. Chadha, Issam Samiri

We survey UK labor productivity over the long run, comparing it with other advanced economies, and focus on the sharp slowdown since the global financial crisis. Using a growth accounting framework, we highlight the primary role of total factor productivity (TFP), while noting that the contribution of capital shallowing is influenced by methodological choices. We assess the UK's productivity performance through standard neoclassical models and revisit the secular stagnation debate. Long-term trends, including a 30-year decline in real interest rates and increased labor supply since 2008 ought to have spurred investment, and yet private and public investment as a share of GDP has declined. The economic literature points to poor TFP growth, government decisions on public investment, flexible labor supply, heightened uncertainty and the distortion of investment decisions in an era of ultra-low interest rates as probable culprits behind the disappointing investment trends.

我们调查了英国的长期劳动生产率,并将其与其他发达经济体进行了比较,并将重点放在全球金融危机以来的急剧放缓上。使用增长核算框架,我们强调了全要素生产率(TFP)的主要作用,同时注意到资本浅化的贡献受到方法选择的影响。我们通过标准的新古典主义模型评估英国的生产率表现,并重新审视长期停滞的辩论。长期趋势,包括自2008年以来实际利率连续30年下降和劳动力供应增加,本应刺激投资,但私人和公共投资占GDP的比重却有所下降。经济文献指出,TFP增长缓慢、政府公共投资决策、劳动力供给灵活、不确定性加剧以及超低利率时代投资决策的扭曲,可能是令人失望的投资趋势背后的罪魁祸首。
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引用次数: 0
From Econometrics to Machine Learning: Transforming Empirical Asset Pricing 从计量经济学到机器学习:转换经验资产定价
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1111/joes.70002
Chuan Shi

Empirical asset pricing is undergoing a transformation with the advent of big data and machine learning. Traditional multifactor models offer simplicity and interpretability but struggle with high-dimensional covariates and nonlinear relationships. Machine learning, with its predictive power and flexibility, provides a promising alternative. This paper surveys the transition from econometrics to machine learning, tracing the evolution of asset pricing models, addressing empirical challenges, and comparing the strengths and challenges of both approaches. A unified framework based on the stochastic discount factor is proposed, integrating machine learning while preserving economic interpretability. By emphasizing predictive accuracy and theoretical rigor, this paper highlights how machine learning can reshape empirical asset pricing, offering deeper insights into financial markets and new directions for robust empirical research.

随着大数据和机器学习的出现,经验性资产定价正在经历一场变革。传统的多因素模型具有简单性和可解释性,但难以处理高维协变量和非线性关系。机器学习凭借其预测能力和灵活性,提供了一个有希望的替代方案。本文概述了从计量经济学到机器学习的转变,追踪了资产定价模型的演变,解决了经验挑战,并比较了两种方法的优势和挑战。提出了一种基于随机折现因子的统一框架,在保持经济可解释性的同时集成了机器学习。通过强调预测的准确性和理论的严谨性,本文强调了机器学习如何重塑经验资产定价,为金融市场提供更深入的见解,并为稳健的实证研究提供新的方向。
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引用次数: 0
In the Spotlight: CEO Characteristics and Financial Misconduct—A Comprehensive Literature Review 聚光灯下:CEO特征与财务不当行为——综合文献综述
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1111/joes.70004
Nitesh Pandey, Bhawana Jain, Satish Kumar

The issue of executive financial fraud has attracted growing attention from research communities, especially after serious corporate scandals in recent times. This research paper offers an extensive summary of existing literature in executive financial misconduct literature. Employing topic modeling and bibliographic coupling techniques, the study identifies major themes and research frontiers in the area. We find that major topics range from incentives to behavioral drivers of executive misconduct. The study consolidates the fragmented body of literature to intellectually map the research area and propose a conceptual framework that focuses on the drivers and moderators of executive misconduct. Finally, the study determines gaps in the current body of literature and proposes a way forward for academic research, while providing valuable insights for regulators and practitioners.

高管财务欺诈问题越来越受到研究界的关注,特别是在近年来严重的公司丑闻之后。本研究论文提供了一个广泛的总结现有的文献在行政财务不当行为的文献。采用主题建模和书目耦合技术,本研究确定了该领域的主要主题和研究前沿。我们发现,主要议题范围从激励到高管不当行为的行为驱动因素。该研究整合了支离破碎的文献,以理智地描绘研究领域,并提出了一个概念框架,重点关注高管不当行为的驱动因素和调节因素。最后,该研究确定了当前文献中的空白,并提出了学术研究的前进方向,同时为监管机构和从业者提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Mechanisms for Belief Elicitation Without Ground Truth 没有基础真理的信念激发机制
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1111/joes.70000
Niklas Valentin Lehmann

This review article examines the challenge of eliciting truthful information from multiple individuals when such information cannot be verified, a problem known as “information elicitation without verification.” This article reviews over 25 mechanisms designed to incentivize truth-telling in such scenarios and their effectiveness in empirical studies. Although many mechanisms theoretically ensure truthfulness as a Bayesian Nash equilibrium, empirical evidence regarding the effects of mechanisms on truth-telling is limited and generally weak. Consequently, more empirical research is needed to validate mechanisms. However, empirical validation is difficult because most mechanisms are very complex and cannot be easily conveyed to research subjects. This review suggests that simple and intuitive mechanisms may be easier to empirically test and apply.

这篇综述文章探讨了在信息无法核实的情况下,从多个个体获取真实信息的挑战,这个问题被称为“未经核实的信息获取”。本文回顾了超过25种机制,旨在激励在这种情况下讲真话和他们的有效性实证研究。尽管许多机制在理论上确保真实性作为贝叶斯纳什均衡,但关于机制对说实话的影响的经验证据是有限的,而且通常是薄弱的。因此,需要更多的实证研究来验证机制。然而,实证验证是困难的,因为大多数机制非常复杂,不容易传达给研究对象。这一综述表明,简单和直观的机制可能更容易进行实证检验和应用。
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引用次数: 0
Theoretical Disputes and Distributive Justice: Historical Observations on the US Progressive Income Tax System 理论争议与分配正义:美国累进所得税制度的历史观察
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12710
Pai Pang, Xiang Hu

The progressive income tax system is a major model innovation in personal tax changes. Based on the historical observation of the US personal income tax system, it is conducive to the dialectical analysis of the rule of law value, theoretical connotation, and comparative advantages of the progressive income tax system. The benefit theory explains the effectiveness of the progressive income tax system in distributing benefits; the sacrifice theory integrates the welfare of the individual and the state in the progressive income tax; the faculty theory emphasizes the concern for the individual's “ability”; and the justice theory clarifies the systemic significance of the progressive income tax system from the perspective of the rule of law for the development of society. These four theories provide a systematic evaluation of the progressive income tax system from different perspectives, which can help people better understand the reasons for the emergence of this tax system. On this basis, the comparative observation of the system advantages of the progressive tax can also highlight the rationale of a progressive income tax system in terms of social governance.

累进所得税制度是个税改革的重大模式创新。在对美国个人所得税制度进行历史观察的基础上,有利于辩证分析累进所得税制度的法治价值、理论内涵和比较优势。利益理论解释了累进所得税制度在分配利益方面的有效性;牺牲理论在累进所得税中整合了个人和国家的福利;教师理论强调对个人“能力”的关注;正义理论从法治的角度阐明了累进所得税制度对社会发展的制度意义。这四种理论从不同的角度对累进所得税制度进行了系统的评价,可以帮助人们更好地理解累进所得税制度产生的原因。在此基础上,比较观察累进税的制度优势,也可以凸显累进所得税制度在社会治理方面的合理性。
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引用次数: 0
Central Banks’ Support for Climate Action: A Literature Review and Key Issues 中央银行对气候行动的支持:文献综述和关键问题
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12709
Iegor Vyshnevskyi, Wook Sohn

This comprehensive literature review examines the role of central banks in supporting climate actions. It explores the reasons why central banks should be concerned about climate change, the policy instruments available to them, the challenges they face in integrating climate considerations into their mandates and operations, and the differences in approaches between advanced and emerging economies. While national governments bear primary responsibility for climate policies—due to their political mandate, financial resources, and available instruments—central banks play a crucial role in recognizing and addressing the threats that climate change poses to price stability, as well as overall economic and financial stability. Central banks in advanced nations carefully consider their potential involvement in climate policy before implementing actions, while those in emerging markets actively utilize a broader range of tools. These differences reflect varying mandates, which closely align with the development goals of governments in emerging economies. Given the heterogeneous impacts of unabated climate change across regions, policy recommendations must be tailored to the specific circumstances of each central bank.

这篇全面的文献综述探讨了央行在支持气候行动方面的作用。它探讨了央行应该关注气候变化的原因、央行可用的政策工具、央行在将气候因素纳入其职责和操作中所面临的挑战,以及发达经济体和新兴经济体在方法上的差异。由于国家政府的政治授权、财政资源和可用工具,它们对气候政策负有主要责任,而中央银行在认识和应对气候变化对价格稳定以及整体经济和金融稳定构成的威胁方面发挥着关键作用。发达国家的央行在实施行动之前,会仔细考虑自己对气候政策的潜在参与,而新兴市场的央行则积极利用更广泛的工具。这些差异反映了不同的任务,这些任务与新兴经济体政府的发展目标密切相关。鉴于气候变化在不同地区的影响不尽相同,政策建议必须根据各国央行的具体情况进行调整。
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引用次数: 0
Multidimensional Regional Development in EU: A Systematic Review 欧盟多维区域发展:系统回顾
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12708
Alexandre Canário Borrega, Maria da Conceição Peixe Rego, Miguel Rocha de Sousa

Regional disparities within the EU remain a persistent challenge, demanding comprehensive research. Enhancing cohesion and convergence while promoting sustainability between and within its regions is crucial to addressing these disparities. This study conducts a systematic literature review on regional development in the EU, identifying key determinants and potential sources of these disparities through a multidimensional lens. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses methodology, our database considers 92 papers related to regional development in the EU. Our analysis shows that most studies predominantly focus on economic factors like employment and GDP, and there is an emerging recognition of the necessity to incorporate social and environmental aspects into regional development studies. This study maps the current state of literature and identifies gaps, particularly the need for more multidimensional and holistic approaches on regional development. These findings underscore the importance of a comprehensive approach in future research and policymaking are crucial for addressing regional disparities and promoting sustainable development across the EU regions.

欧盟内部的地区差异仍然是一个持续的挑战,需要进行全面的研究。加强凝聚力和趋同,同时促进区域间和区域内的可持续性,对于解决这些差距至关重要。本研究对欧盟的区域发展进行了系统的文献回顾,通过多维视角确定了这些差异的关键决定因素和潜在来源。使用首选报告项目进行系统评价和荟萃分析方法,我们的数据库考虑了92篇与欧盟区域发展相关的论文。我们的分析表明,大多数研究主要集中在就业和国内生产总值等经济因素上,并且人们逐渐认识到将社会和环境方面纳入区域发展研究的必要性。这项研究绘制了文献的现状,并确定了差距,特别是需要对区域发展采取更多维和整体的方法。这些发现强调了在未来的研究和政策制定中采用综合方法的重要性,这对于解决区域差异和促进欧盟各地区的可持续发展至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to the special issue title in Journal of Economic Surveys Volume 39 Issue 2 更正《经济调查杂志》第39卷第2期的特刊标题
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12707

(2025). Issue Information. Journal of Economic Surveys, 39(2), 403–404. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12639

The title of the special section published in Journal of Economic Surveys Volume 39 Issue 2 was incorrect. The correct title is:

 Development and inequality: A long-run view

The correct title is now reflected in the online version of the publication.

We apologize for this error.

(2025)。问题的信息。经济研究,39(2),403-404。《经济调查杂志》第39卷第2期的专题标题https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12639The是不正确的。正确的标题是:发展与不平等:一个长远的观点。正确的标题现在反映在出版物的网络版上。我们为这个错误道歉。
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引用次数: 0
Trust in Central Banks 对中央银行的信任
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12703
Michael Ehrmann

Trust in the central bank is an essential ingredient for a successful conduct of monetary policy. However, for many central banks trust has recently declined, for instance in the wake of the post-pandemic inflation surge, due to large errors in central banks’ inflation forecasts, or given problems when exiting from forward guidance. The rapid, substantial, and persistent erosion of trust makes it clear that trust needs to be earned continuously. This paper reviews why trust is important, what determines it and how central banks can enhance it. It also argues that it is important for central banks to improve the measurement and monitoring of trust. It ends by highlighting some future challenges for maintaining trust.

对央行的信任是成功实施货币政策的重要因素。然而,对于许多央行来说,信任最近有所下降,例如在大流行后通胀飙升之后,原因是央行的通胀预测存在重大错误,或者在退出前瞻性指引时遇到问题。信任的迅速、大量和持续的侵蚀清楚地表明,信任需要不断地赢得。本文回顾了信任为何重要,是什么决定了信任,以及央行如何加强信任。报告还认为,中央银行改善对信任的衡量和监控非常重要。报告最后强调了未来维持信任的一些挑战。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Economic Surveys
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