Journal of Economic Surveys最新文献_第6页

The empirics of technology, employment and occupations: Lessons learned and challenges ahead 技术、就业和职业的经验：经验教训和未来挑战

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Surveys

Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12601

Fabio Montobbio, Jacopo Staccioli, Maria Enrica Virgillito, Marco Vivarelli

This paper is a critical review of the empirical literature resulting from recent years of debate and analysis regarding technology and employment and the future of work as threatened by technology, outlining both lessons learned and challenges ahead. We distinguish three waves of studies and relate their heterogeneous findings to the choice of technological proxies, the level of aggregation, the adopted research methodology and to the relative focus on robots, automation and AI. The challenges ahead include the need for awareness of possible ex-ante biases associated with the adopted proxies for innovation; the recognition of the trade-off between microeconometric precision and a more holistic macroeconomic approach; the need for granular analysis of the reallocation and transformation of occupations and tasks brought about by different types of new technologies; the call for a closer focus on impacts on labor quality, in terms of types of jobs and working conditions.

本文对近年来有关技术与就业以及受技术威胁的未来工作的辩论和分析所产生的实证文献进行了批判性回顾，概述了经验教训和未来挑战。我们区分了三波研究，并将其不同的研究结果与技术代用指标的选择、汇总水平、采用的研究方法以及对机器人、自动化和人工智能的相对关注联系起来。未来的挑战包括：需要认识到所采用的创新代用指标可能存在事前偏差；认识到微观计量经济学的精确性与更全面的宏观经济方法之间的权衡；需要对不同类型的新技术带来的职业和任务的重新分配和转变进行精细分析；呼吁从工作类型和工作条件的角度更加关注对劳动力质量的影响。

引用次数: 0

Selective and (mis)leading economics journals: Meta-research evidence 经济学期刊的选择性和（误）引导性：元研究证据

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Surveys

Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12598

Zohid Askarov, Anthony Doucouliagos, Hristos Doucouliagos, T. D. Stanley

We assess statistical power and excess statistical significance among 31 leading economics general interest and field journals using 22,281 parameter estimates from 368 distinct areas of economics research. Median statistical power in leading economics journals is very low (only 7%), and excess statistical significance is quite high (19%). Power this low and excess significance this high raise serious doubts about the credibility of economics research. We find that 26% of all reported results have undergone some process of selection for statistical significance and 56% of statistically significant results were selected to be statistically significant. Selection bias is greater at the top five journals, where 66% of statistically significant results were selected to be statistically significant. A large majority of empirical evidence reported in leading economics journals is potentially misleading. Results reported to be statistically significant are about as likely to be misleading as not (falsely positive) and statistically nonsignificant results are much more likely to be misleading (falsely negative). We also compare observational to experimental research and find that the quality of experimental economic evidence is notably higher.

我们利用来自 368 个不同经济学研究领域的 22,281 个参数估计，评估了 31 种主要经济学综合期刊和领域期刊的统计能力和超统计显著性。主要经济学期刊的统计能力中位数非常低（仅为 7%），而超额统计显著性则相当高（19%）。如此低的统计能力和如此高的超额显著性让人对经济学研究的可信度产生严重怀疑。我们发现，在所有报告的结果中，有 26% 经过了某种统计显著性选择过程，56% 的统计显著性结果被选择为具有统计显著性。在排名前五的期刊中，选择偏差更大，66% 具有统计意义的结果被选择为具有统计意义。主要经济学期刊上报告的绝大多数经验证据都可能具有误导性。统计意义显著的结果与统计意义不显著的结果一样可能具有误导性（假阳性），而统计意义不显著的结果更可能具有误导性（假阴性）。我们还比较了观察性研究和实验性研究，发现实验性经济证据的质量明显更高。

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引用次数: 1

The environment, life expectancy, and growth in overlapping generations models: A survey 世代重叠模型中的环境、预期寿命和增长：调查

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Surveys

Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12602

Anna Dugan, Alexia Prskawetz, Natacha Raffin

It is widely accepted that environmental and demographic changes will significantly influence the future of our society. In recent years, an increasing number of studies has analyzed the interlinkages among economic growth, environmental factors, and a specific demographic variable, namely life expectancy, applying an overlapping generations framework. The aim of this survey is threefold. First, we review the role of life expectancy and pollution for sustainable growth. Second, we discuss the role of intervening factors like health investment and technological progress as well as institutional settings including government expenditures, tax structures, and inequality. Finally, we summarize policy implications obtained in different models and compare them to each other.

人们普遍认为，环境和人口变化将极大地影响我们社会的未来。近年来，越来越多的研究运用世代重叠框架分析了经济增长、环境因素和特定人口变量（即预期寿命）之间的相互联系。本调查的目的有三。首先，我们回顾了预期寿命和污染对可持续增长的作用。其次，我们讨论了健康投资和技术进步等干预因素以及政府支出、税收结构和不平等等制度环境的作用。最后，我们总结了不同模型得出的政策影响，并对它们进行了比较。

引用次数: 0

A review on ESG investing: Investors’ expectations, beliefs and perceptions ESG投资研究综述:投资者的期望、信念和认知

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Surveys

Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12599

Roman Kräussl, Tobi Oladiran, Denitsa Stefanova

This study examines the recent literature on the expectations, beliefs and perceptions of investors who incorporate Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) considerations in investment decisions with the aim to generate superior performance or make a societal impact. Through the lens of equilibrium models of agents with heterogeneous tastes for ESG investments, green assets are expected to generate lower returns in the long run compared to their non-ESG counterparts. However, in the short run, ESG investments can outperform non-ESG investments through various channels. Empirically, results for the relative performance to ESG investment are mixed. We find strong empirical evidence in the literature that investors have a preference for ESG and that their actions can generate positive social impact through engagement. The shift towards more sustainable policies in firms is motivated by the increased market values and the lower cost of capital of green firms driven by investors’ choices.

本研究考察了最近关于投资者的期望、信念和看法的文献，这些投资者将环境、社会、治理(ESG)因素纳入投资决策，目的是产生卓越的业绩或产生社会影响。通过对ESG投资具有不同偏好的主体的均衡模型，绿色资产与非ESG资产相比，预计在长期内产生较低的回报。然而，在短期内，ESG投资可以通过各种渠道优于非ESG投资。从经验上看，相对绩效与ESG投资的关系好坏参半。我们在文献中发现强有力的实证证据表明，投资者对ESG有偏好，他们的行为可以通过参与产生积极的社会影响。在投资者的选择下，绿色企业的市场价值增加和资本成本降低，促使企业转向更可持续的政策。

引用次数: 0

A review on ESG investing: Investors’ expectations, beliefs and perceptions ESG投资研究综述:投资者的期望、信念和认知

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Surveys

Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12599

Roman Kräussl, Tobi Oladiran, Denitsa Stefanova

This study examines the recent literature on the expectations, beliefs and perceptions of investors who incorporate Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) considerations in investment decisions with the aim to generate superior performance or make a societal impact. Through the lens of equilibrium models of agents with heterogeneous tastes for ESG investments, green assets are expected to generate lower returns in the long run compared to their non-ESG counterparts. However, in the short run, ESG investments can outperform non-ESG investments through various channels. Empirically, results for the relative performance to ESG investment are mixed. We find strong empirical evidence in the literature that investors have a preference for ESG and that their actions can generate positive social impact through engagement. The shift towards more sustainable policies in firms is motivated by the increased market values and the lower cost of capital of green firms driven by investors’ choices.

本研究考察了最近关于投资者的期望、信念和看法的文献，这些投资者将环境、社会、治理(ESG)因素纳入投资决策，目的是产生卓越的业绩或产生社会影响。通过对ESG投资具有不同偏好的主体的均衡模型，绿色资产与非ESG资产相比，预计在长期内产生较低的回报。然而，在短期内，ESG投资可以通过各种渠道优于非ESG投资。从经验上看，相对绩效与ESG投资的关系好坏参半。我们在文献中发现强有力的实证证据表明，投资者对ESG有偏好，他们的行为可以通过参与产生积极的社会影响。在投资者的选择下，绿色企业的市场价值增加和资本成本降低，促使企业转向更可持续的政策。

引用次数: 0

Meta-analysis of social science research: A practitioner's guide 社会科学研究的元分析:实践者指南

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Surveys

Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12595

Zuzana Irsova, Hristos Doucouliagos, Tomas Havranek, T. D. Stanley

This article provides concise, nontechnical, step-by-step guidelines on how to conduct a modern meta-analysis, especially in social sciences. We treat publication bias, p-hacking, and systematic heterogeneity as phenomena meta-analysts must always confront. To this end, we provide concrete methodological recommendations. Meta-analysis methods have advanced notably over the last few years. Yet many meta-analyses still rely on outdated approaches, some ignoring publication bias and systematic heterogeneity. While limitations persist, recently developed techniques allow robust inference even in the face of formidable problems in the underlying empirical literature. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the state of the art in a way accessible to aspiring meta-analysts in any field. We also discuss how meta-analysts can use advances in artificial intelligence to work more efficiently.

这篇文章提供了简明的，非技术的，逐步指导如何进行现代元分析，特别是在社会科学。我们将发表偏倚、p-hacking和系统异质性视为元分析必须面对的现象。为此，我们提出具体的方法建议。元分析方法在过去几年中取得了显著进展。然而，许多元分析仍然依赖于过时的方法，有些忽略了发表偏倚和系统异质性。虽然局限性仍然存在，但最近开发的技术即使在面对潜在经验文献中的可怕问题时也可以进行稳健的推断。本文的目的是以一种对任何领域有抱负的元分析人员都可以访问的方式总结当前的艺术状态。我们还讨论了元分析师如何利用人工智能的进步来提高工作效率。

引用次数: 1

Meta-analysis of social science research: A practitioner's guide 社会科学研究的元分析:实践者指南

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Surveys

Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12595

Zuzana Irsova, Hristos Doucouliagos, Tomas Havranek, T. D. Stanley

This article provides concise, nontechnical, step-by-step guidelines on how to conduct a modern meta-analysis, especially in social sciences. We treat publication bias, p-hacking, and systematic heterogeneity as phenomena meta-analysts must always confront. To this end, we provide concrete methodological recommendations. Meta-analysis methods have advanced notably over the last few years. Yet many meta-analyses still rely on outdated approaches, some ignoring publication bias and systematic heterogeneity. While limitations persist, recently developed techniques allow robust inference even in the face of formidable problems in the underlying empirical literature. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the state of the art in a way accessible to aspiring meta-analysts in any field. We also discuss how meta-analysts can use advances in artificial intelligence to work more efficiently.

这篇文章提供了简明的，非技术的，逐步指导如何进行现代元分析，特别是在社会科学。我们将发表偏倚、p-hacking和系统异质性视为元分析必须面对的现象。为此，我们提出具体的方法建议。元分析方法在过去几年中取得了显著进展。然而，许多元分析仍然依赖于过时的方法，有些忽略了发表偏倚和系统异质性。虽然局限性仍然存在，但最近开发的技术即使在面对潜在经验文献中的可怕问题时也可以进行稳健的推断。本文的目的是以一种对任何领域有抱负的元分析人员都可以访问的方式总结当前的艺术状态。我们还讨论了元分析师如何利用人工智能的进步来提高工作效率。

引用次数: 0

e-Commerce platforms and self-preferencing 电子商务平台与自我偏好

IF 5.9 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Surveys

Pub Date : 2023-11-16 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12594

Federico Etro

I review the literature on eCommerce platforms with particular emphasis on the antitrust debate on Amazon. The business model of hybrid marketplaces is based on monetization through fees on third party sellers hosted on the platform and direct margins on own products. Recent theoretical and empirical work on endogenous marketplace structures has analyzed the welfare impact of the dual mode and of recommendation algorithms that have been associated with self-preferencing strategies. The trade offs are complex and one cannot easily conclude that Amazon entry is biased to expropriate third party sellers or that a ban on dual mode, self-preferencing or copycatting would benefit consumers.

我回顾了电子商务平台的文献，特别强调了亚马逊的反垄断辩论。混合市场的商业模式是通过向平台上的第三方卖家收取费用和自己产品的直接利润来实现盈利。最近关于内生市场结构的理论和实证研究分析了双重模式和与自我偏好策略相关的推荐算法对福利的影响。权衡是复杂的，人们不能轻易得出结论，认为亚马逊的进入是对第三方卖家的侵占，或者禁止双重模式、自我偏好或抄袭会让消费者受益。

引用次数: 0

e-Commerce platforms and self-preferencing 电子商务平台与自我偏好

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Surveys

Pub Date : 2023-11-16 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12594

Federico Etro

I review the literature on eCommerce platforms with particular emphasis on the antitrust debate on Amazon. The business model of hybrid marketplaces is based on monetization through fees on third party sellers hosted on the platform and direct margins on own products. Recent theoretical and empirical work on endogenous marketplace structures has analyzed the welfare impact of the dual mode and of recommendation algorithms that have been associated with self-preferencing strategies. The trade offs are complex and one cannot easily conclude that Amazon entry is biased to expropriate third party sellers or that a ban on dual mode, self-preferencing or copycatting would benefit consumers.

我回顾了电子商务平台的文献，特别强调了亚马逊的反垄断辩论。混合市场的商业模式是通过向平台上的第三方卖家收取费用和自己产品的直接利润来实现盈利。最近关于内生市场结构的理论和实证研究分析了双重模式和与自我偏好策略相关的推荐算法对福利的影响。权衡是复杂的，人们不能轻易得出结论，认为亚马逊的进入是对第三方卖家的侵占，或者禁止双重模式、自我偏好或抄袭会让消费者受益。

引用次数: 0

Behavioral finance: Evolution from the classical theory and remarks 行为金融学:从经典理论和评论的演变

IF 5.3 2区经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Surveys

Pub Date : 2023-11-16 DOI: 10.1111/joes.12593

Roberto Arturo Agudelo Aguirre, Alberto Antonio Agudelo Aguirre

Behavioral finance has emerged from the divergences observed to explain and address the traditional theories of finance and serves as supplement to classical finance by introducing behavioral aspects to decision-making. This study provides academics with a comprehensible and complete synopsis of the evolution of behavioral finance, as well as critical insight is provided. The synopsis was based on the search for publications in Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus and the use of R, Gephi and Tree of Science -ToS- software, using citation analysis, graphos and classification analysis. The results showed psychological aspects, investment in stocks and cognitive biases with the highest visibility. A tree-like structure of hierarchization was developed by ToS. The clusters of publications with the greatest literary contribution were analyzed and the publications with the greatest visibility in each cluster identified. This study provides insights into the current trend in finance towards better understanding of the essential factors in the investor´s decision making.

行为金融学从观察到的分歧中出现，以解释和解决传统的金融理论，并通过将行为方面引入决策，作为经典金融学的补充。本研究为学术界提供了一个可理解和完整的行为金融学发展概况，并提供了批判性的见解。摘要是基于在Web of Science (WoS)和Scopus中检索出版物，并使用R, Gephi和Tree of Science - tos -软件，使用引文分析，图表和分类分析。结果显示，心理因素、股票投资和认知偏差的可见性最高。ToS开发了一种树形分层结构。分析了具有最大文学贡献的出版物集群，并确定了每个集群中知名度最高的出版物。这项研究提供了对当前金融趋势的见解，以更好地理解投资者决策中的基本因素。

引用次数: 0