Political Studies最新文献

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The COVID-19 Pandemic in Britain: A Competence Shock and Its Electoral Consequences COVID-19 在英国的流行：能力冲击及其选举后果

IF 2.5 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Political Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1177/00323217241263404

Jane Green, Geoffrey Evans, Dan Snow

Competence shocks cut through partisan and other salient divides to impact party reputations and electoral choice. We examine whether the COVID-19 pandemic was a competence shock in Britain – a context where the issue of Brexit had otherwise dominated and reshaped electoral choice. Using British Election Study panel data between 2019 and 2022, we show that Brexit support had little effect on pandemic performance evaluations, that the pandemic served primarily as a competence shock and that the incumbent Conservative government lost popular support over its handling of the pandemic. The Conservatives were insulated from electoral losses by leader evaluations and by partisanship, but lost more of their newer voters from the 2019 general election. While the pandemic was exceptional, its effects have wider lessons for British politics in the post-Brexit era. The British case also provides insights into how competence shocks can cut through highly salient and otherwise dominant socio-cultural political divides.

能力冲击穿过党派和其他突出分歧，影响政党声誉和选举选择。我们研究了 COVID-19 大流行病在英国是否是一种能力冲击--在英国，脱欧问题主导并重塑了选举选择。利用 2019 年至 2022 年英国选举研究的面板数据，我们表明，英国脱欧的支持对大流行病的绩效评估影响甚微，大流行病主要是一种能力冲击，而现任保守党政府在处理大流行病的过程中失去了民众的支持。保守党通过领导人评价和党派关系避免了选举损失，但在 2019 年大选中失去了更多新选民。虽然大流行病是个例外，但其影响对后脱欧时代的英国政治具有更广泛的借鉴意义。英国的案例还让我们了解到能力冲击是如何突破高度突出的、在其他方面占主导地位的社会文化政治分歧的。

引用次数: 0

The Good Politician: Competence, Integrity and Authenticity in Seven Democracies 优秀的政治家：七个民主国家的能力、正直和真实性

IF 2.5 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Political Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1177/00323217241261180

V. Valgarðsson, Will Jennings, Gerry Stoker, Lawrence McKay, Daniel Devine, Nick Clarke

We explore the characteristics of politicians that make them trusted by citizens, fielding conjoint survey experiments in seven democracies. Studies regularly indicate that competence and integrity are key attributes in the perceived trustworthiness of politicians, but we show that displaying authenticity is also important. Authenticity is about being true to oneself, and in the political context this requires politicians to appear unlike typical politicians and more like ordinary people. We find that some attributes associated with authenticity are as important as competence and integrity, and they appear to be especially important to citizens with lower levels of generalized political trust. These findings suggest that considerations of politicians being ‘in touch with ordinary people’ can matter just as much as more traditional judgements of their honesty and ability to produce outcomes. This has implications for our understanding of political leadership as well as for trust-building strategies.

我们在七个民主国家进行了联合调查实验，探讨了政治家获得公民信任的特征。研究通常表明，能力和正直是政治家值得信赖的关键因素，但我们的研究表明，表现出真实性也很重要。真实是指忠于自我，在政治环境中，这就要求政治家看起来不像典型的政治家，而更像普通人。我们发现，与真实性相关的一些特质与能力和正直同样重要，而且对于政治信任度普遍较低的公民来说，这些特质似乎尤为重要。这些研究结果表明，对政治家 "与普通人接触 "的考量与对其诚实度和取得成果的能力的传统判断同样重要。这对我们理解政治领导力以及建立信任的策略都有影响。

引用次数: 0

Beyond the Ballot: The Impact of Voting Margin and Turnout on the Legitimacy of Referendum Outcomes in Europe 选票之外：投票差额和投票率对欧洲全民公决结果合法性的影响

IF 2.5 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Political Studies

Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1177/00323217241266025

Sveinung Arnesen, T. S. Broderstad, M. Johannesson, Jonas Linde

This study delves into the criteria under which referendums can legitimise political choices. It employs survey experiments regarding EU membership across seven European nations, focusing on variations in referendum outcomes, majority margins and voter participation. The empirical results reveal a consistent pattern of legitimacy attributed to referendums, emphasising the influence of majority margin and voter turnout. It also uncovers the critical role of status quo bias on outcome favorability and the apprehension regarding false majorities in shaping public acceptance of referendums. This research contributes to understanding the mechanisms by which democratic procedures legitimise political decisions, revealing the nuanced role of referendums in democratic governance.

本研究深入探讨了全民公决使政治选择合法化的标准。研究采用了有关七个欧洲国家加入欧盟的调查实验，重点关注全民公决结果、多数差额和选民参与的变化。实证结果揭示了公投合法性的一致模式，强调了多数差额和投票率的影响。研究还揭示了维持现状的偏见对全民公决结果支持率的关键作用，以及对虚假多数的担忧对公众接受全民公决的影响。这项研究有助于理解民主程序使政治决策合法化的机制，揭示全民投票在民主治理中的微妙作用。

引用次数: 0

Europhoria! Explaining Britain’s Pro-European Moment, 1988–1992 Europhoria！解释英国的亲欧时刻，1988-1992 年

IF 2.5 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Political Studies

Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1177/00323217241266032

James Dennison

British attitudes to ‘Europe’ have been long characterised as ‘reluctant’. This article uses a range of qualitative and quantitative sources to describe and explain an anomalous period in which Britons were highly ‘enthusiastic Europeans’. This ‘Europhoria’ is interpreted using an expanded ‘calculation, cues, and community’ theoretical framework, including: (1) calculations driven mainly by anticipation of the ‘1992’ single market launch and ‘social chapter’ and trust engendered by unrealised negative predictions raised during the 1975 referendum; (2) proactive domestic European policy leading to harmonious, influential, insider status; (3) benchmarking of comparable, better performing European economies and (4) newfound belief that Europe was Britain’s most important international community. ‘Europhoria’ interplayed with a sense of European community and geopolitical possibilities stimulated by the fall of the Berlin Wall and unusually ‘European’ cultural trends in media, sports and arts. The reversal of these factors – in some cases at pan-European level – explains the British return to Euroscepticism thereafter. These findings have profound theoretical implications for public attitudes to Europe and historical understandings of Britain and Europe.

长期以来，英国人对 "欧洲 "的态度一直被描述为 "勉强"。本文利用一系列定性和定量资料来描述和解释英国人高度 "热衷欧洲 "的反常时期。这种 "欧洲狂热 "使用一个扩展的 "计算、线索和社区 "理论框架进行解释，包括：(1) 主要由对 "1992 年 "单一市场启动和 "社会篇章 "的预期所驱动的计算，以及 1975 年公投期间提出的未实现的负面预测所产生的信任；(2) 积极的国内欧洲政策导致和谐、有影响力的内部地位；(3) 以可比较的、表现更好的欧洲经济体为基准；以及 (4) 新发现的信念，即欧洲是英国最重要的国际社区。欧洲狂热 "与柏林墙倒塌所激发的欧洲共同体意识和地缘政治可能性，以及媒体、体育和艺术领域不同寻常的 "欧洲 "文化趋势相互作用。这些因素的逆转--在某些情况下是泛欧层面上的逆转--解释了英国此后重新回到欧洲怀疑论的原因。这些发现对公众对欧洲的态度以及对英国和欧洲的历史理解具有深远的理论影响。

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引用次数: 0

Radiating Truthiness: Authenticity Performances in Politics in Brazil and the United States 放射真实：巴西和美国政治中的真实性表演

IF 2.5 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Political Studies

Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1177/00323217241261229

Henrique Sposito

Political authenticity is connected to higher levels of political trust from electorates and can influence political outcomes, but it is often overlooked as a relevant factor for electoral behavior. To date, discussions of how authenticity appears and changes in politics typically remain at the theoretical level and are rarely comparative. This article develops a framework to identify and compare how authenticity is performed in political discourses over time and across settings by politicians. To demonstrate the usefulness of the framework, this article investigates authenticity performances in 21,496 political texts of electoral debates, interviews, campaigns, and official speeches by presidents and presidential candidates in Brazil and the United States since 1988. The findings indicate that authenticity is generally performed with greater frequency by presidents and presidential candidates in Brazil than in the United States, though authenticity performances are not more prevalent during election years in either country.

政治真实性与选民较高的政治信任度有关，并能影响政治结果，但它作为选举行为的一个相关因素却常常被忽视。迄今为止，关于政治真实性如何出现和变化的讨论通常停留在理论层面，很少进行比较。本文建立了一个框架，用于识别和比较政治家在不同时期和不同场合的政治话语中是如何表现真实性的。为了证明该框架的实用性，本文调查了自 1988 年以来巴西和美国总统及总统候选人在选举辩论、访谈、竞选活动和官方演讲等 21,496 篇政治文本中的真实性表现。研究结果表明，巴西总统和总统候选人对真实性的表现频率普遍高于美国，但两国在选举年期间对真实性的表现并不更普遍。

引用次数: 0

Why Are Graduates More Socially Liberal? Estimating the Effect of Higher Education on Political Values Through Variation in University Experience 为什么毕业生在社会上更自由？通过大学经历的差异估算高等教育对政治价值观的影响

IF 2.5 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Political Studies

Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1177/00323217241266029

Ralph Scott

Previous research has found that attending university results in an individual being more socially liberal and less racially prejudiced, accounting for a variety of alternative explanations. Yet what is it about university that induces this change in political values? This is the question this article addresses, by investigating three variations in university experience – degree subject, geographic mobility and change in social context – through analysis of a British cohort study linked to Census data. Using panel estimation methods, it finds that graduates of arts, humanities and social science subjects become more socially liberal than those studying other subjects, even when accounting for institutional variation, mobility, contextual effects and time-invariant confounding. It therefore makes the case that the effect of university on political values should be considered in part a learning effect: whereby disciplines affect individuals’ worldviews during the ‘impressionable years’.

以往的研究发现，上大学会使个人的社会自由度更高，种族偏见更少，这其中有多种解释。然而，大学究竟是什么诱发了这种政治价值观的变化？本文通过分析与人口普查数据相关联的英国队列研究，调查了大学经历中的三种变化--学位科目、地域流动性和社会环境变化，从而解决了这一问题。文章采用面板估算方法，发现即使考虑到院校差异、流动性、环境影响和时间不变混杂因素，艺术、人文和社会科学学科的毕业生也比其他学科的毕业生更具有社会自由主义色彩。因此，研究认为，大学对政治价值观的影响在某种程度上应被视为一种学习效应：即学科会在 "印象期 "影响个人的世界观。

引用次数: 0

Why Voters Prefer Politicians With Particular Personal Attributes: The Role of Voter Demand for Populists 选民为何青睐具有特定个人特质的政治家？选民对民粹主义者需求的作用

IF 2.5 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Political Studies

Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1177/00323217241263295

Hirofumi Miwa

Recent studies in democratic countries suggest that voters generally prefer candidates with specific personal attributes, such as being female and young. However, some of these patterns cannot necessarily be explained by voters’ expectations of candidates’ competence. Building on a growing body of literature that addresses populist attitudes as an important factor influencing voters’ political preferences, this study hypothesizes that candidates’ personal attributes shape voters’ perceptions of their populist attitudes and that such perceptions mediate the relationship between personal attributes and voter preferences. A conjoint experiment conducted in Japan showed that several personal attributes substantially influenced candidates’ perceived anti-elitism and people-centrism. An additional experiment to disentangle causal mechanisms suggested that, albeit inconclusive, young candidates were more likely to be preferred because of voters’ expectations of their populist tendencies. Methodologically, this study illustrates advancements in the conjoint experiment design to elucidate causal mechanisms, with a careful discussion of necessary assumptions.

最近在民主国家进行的研究表明，选民一般倾向于具有特定个人特征的候选人，如女性和年轻人。然而，选民对候选人能力的期望并不一定能解释其中的某些模式。越来越多的文献将民粹主义态度视为影响选民政治偏好的一个重要因素，在此基础上，本研究假设，候选人的个人特质会影响选民对其民粹主义态度的看法，而这种看法会调节个人特质与选民偏好之间的关系。在日本进行的联合实验表明，一些个人特质对候选人的反精英主义和以人为本的观念有很大影响。另一项旨在厘清因果机制的实验表明，尽管尚无定论，但年轻候选人更有可能因选民对其民粹主义倾向的预期而获得青睐。在方法论上，本研究说明了联合实验设计在阐明因果机制方面的进步，并对必要的假设进行了细致的讨论。

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引用次数: 0

Addressing the Will Theory Challenge to Animal Rights 应对意志论对动物权利的挑战

IF 3.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Studies

Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1177/00323217241253555

Serrin Rutledge-Prior

Participants in the long-standing interest/will theory debate, long in disagreement over the function of rights, are united on this point: while the interest theory can accommodate animals, the will theory cannot. Recent scholarship in animal political theory agrees, accounting for animal rights via the interest theory alone. This article offers the first sustained challenge to this position by exploring two interpretations of the will theory. It concludes that only a more moderate interpretation of what it takes to be a competent decision-maker allows us to interpret the will theory in a way that both retains its distinctiveness and conforms to current, mainstream rights discourse. Through a discussion of how we might regard at least certain animals, in certain contexts, as being capable of giving or withholding their consent, the article argues that they should no longer be categorically held as outside the domain of will theory rights-holders.

长期以来，在权利的功能问题上，利益论与意志论的争论一直莫衷一是，但在这一点上，与会者的观点是一致的：利益论可以容纳动物，而意志论则不能。动物政治理论的最新学术研究也同意这一点，认为只有利益理论才能解释动物权利。本文通过探讨意志理论的两种解释，首次对这一立场提出了持续的挑战。文章的结论是，只有对成为合格决策者的要求做出更温和的解释，才能使我们对意志理论的解释既保持其独特性，又符合当前的主流权利论述。通过讨论我们在某些情况下至少可以如何将某些动物视为有能力给予或不给予同意的动物，文章认为不应再将它们断然地视为意志论权利拥有者领域之外的动物。

引用次数: 0

The Politics of Blame-Seeking: Strategic Antagonism, Effective Alignment and Benefitting From Backlash 求全责备的政治学：战略对抗、有效结盟和从反弹中获益

IF 3.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Studies

Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1177/00323217241251700

M. Flinders, Markus Hinterleitner

Why would a politician ever want to be blamed? Under what contextual conditions might blame-seeking behaviour emerge as a rational strategy? What tactics, tools and strategies might they deploy? Where is the empirical evidence of blame-seeking in action and why does it matter? These are the questions this article engages with as it challenges the long-standing ‘self-evident truth’ within political science that blame-is-bad. We argue that a new ‘blame game’ has emerged in which blame generation is deployed not solely to taint opponents but also to demonstrate the blame-seeker’s willingness to challenge convention, break the rules, or side with the marginalized. In a broader context characterized by democratic dissatisfaction, anti-political sentiment and affective polarization, we suggest that blame-seeking assumes a powerful symbolic and performative dimension. Antagonizing certain sections of society and then harnessing the backlash provides a powerful political strategy which challenges traditional scholarly assumptions about credit and blame existing in a zero-sum relationship. We illustrate these arguments using the case of Boris Johnson’s rise to the British premiership. A focus on blame-seeking, we suggest, expands our understanding of what politicians say and do to achieve their goals in polarized political contexts.

政治家为什么希望受到指责？在什么情况下，求责行为可能成为一种理性策略？他们可能采用哪些策略、工具和战略？追责行为的经验证据在哪里？本文在挑战政治学中长期存在的 "不言而喻的真理"--"指责是坏事"--的同时，也提出了这些问题。我们认为，一种新的 "指责游戏 "已经出现，在这种游戏中，指责的产生不仅是为了玷污对手，也是为了证明求责者愿意挑战传统、打破常规或站在边缘化群体一边。在以民主不满、反政治情绪和情感两极分化为特征的大背景下，我们认为追责具有强大的象征性和表演性。与社会中的某些群体对立，然后利用他们的反弹，这提供了一种强大的政治策略，挑战了传统学术界关于功过零和关系的假设。我们将以鲍里斯-约翰逊（Boris Johnson）升任英国首相的案例来说明这些论点。我们认为，对求全责备的关注可以拓展我们对政治家在两极分化的政治环境中为实现其目标所言所行的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Meddling in the 2016 Elections and Satisfaction With Democracy in the US. 干预2016年大选与对美国民主的满意度

IF 3.1 2区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

Political Studies

Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2022-10-15 DOI: 10.1177/00323217221126300

Florian Justwan, Bert Baumgaertner, Madeleine Curtright

In this article, we investigate how external election interventions influence satisfaction with democracy. We expect that mere knowledge about a foreign intervention will not affect system support. Instead, only those who believe that the external influence campaign had a decisive impact on the election outcome should see a reduction in democratic satisfaction. Furthermore, since electoral winners are likely to think that their preferred party provides superior policy outputs, supporters of winning parties should be less affected by their beliefs in the decisiveness of an influence campaign. Finally, we expect that those who place a high value on in-group loyalty will be more likely to engage in motivated reasoning. Thus, in-group loyalty should cause electoral winners to discount the substantive impact of a given electoral intervention, whereas it should have the opposite effect for losers. Our analysis relies on US survey data, and it uncovers broad support for our theoretical expectations.

在这篇文章中，我们调查了外部选举干预如何影响对民主的满意度。我们预计，仅仅了解外国干预不会影响系统支持。相反，只有那些认为外部影响运动对选举结果有决定性影响的人，民主满意度才会下降。此外，由于选举获胜者可能认为他们喜欢的政党提供了优越的政策输出，获胜政党的支持者应该较少受到他们对影响力运动的决定性信念的影响。最后，我们预计，那些高度重视团队忠诚度的人将更有可能进行有动机的推理。因此，群体内的忠诚应该导致选举获胜者低估特定选举干预的实质性影响，而对失败者则应该产生相反的效果。我们的分析依赖于美国的调查数据，它揭示了对我们理论预期的广泛支持。

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