ABSTRACT:Ever since its first issue in 1970, BPEA has played a leading role in the analysis of monetary policy. This paper surveys BPEA’s many contributions to three specific areas: (1) the Phillips curve, which provides the empirical bridge between real economic activity and inflation; (2) the analysis and demise of monetarism, the doctrine that emphasized the money supply over interest rates; and (3) evaluations of and recommendations for actual monetary policy in the United States, which began in the first BPEA issue and continues to this day. BPEA has played a dominant (though not monopoly) role in each of these areas.
{"title":"BPEA and Monetary Policy over Fifty Years","authors":"A. Blinder","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0004","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Ever since its first issue in 1970, BPEA has played a leading role in the analysis of monetary policy. This paper surveys BPEA’s many contributions to three specific areas: (1) the Phillips curve, which provides the empirical bridge between real economic activity and inflation; (2) the analysis and demise of monetarism, the doctrine that emphasized the money supply over interest rates; and (3) evaluations of and recommendations for actual monetary policy in the United States, which began in the first BPEA issue and continues to this day. BPEA has played a dominant (though not monopoly) role in each of these areas.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89065426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments and Discussion","authors":"V. Acharya","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0020","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74990407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:This paper provides estimates of the size and determinants of the fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic across thirty advanced economies. In contrast to the fiscal response to financial crises, I find no evidence that fiscal space was an important determinant of the aggressiveness of pandemic fiscal packages. Focusing in on the US fiscal policy response, I discuss the policy implications of the unique features of a pandemic recession. I argue that the social insurance and public health components of the $5.2 trillion US package, such as expanded unemployment insurance and government funding of vaccine development and distribution, were highly appropriate, whereas broad-based stimulus measures, such as the onetime payments to households, were not. Finally, I consider some of the longer-run consequences of the US fiscal policy actions. The aggressive fiscal expansion, along with extensive private saving during the pandemic, is likely to generate rapid growth over the next few years. The rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio, caused by both the policy response and the pandemic recession itself, could limit future fiscal action if anti-debt sentiment reemerges.
{"title":"The Fiscal Policy Response to the Pandemic","authors":"Christina D. Romer","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0009","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper provides estimates of the size and determinants of the fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic across thirty advanced economies. In contrast to the fiscal response to financial crises, I find no evidence that fiscal space was an important determinant of the aggressiveness of pandemic fiscal packages. Focusing in on the US fiscal policy response, I discuss the policy implications of the unique features of a pandemic recession. I argue that the social insurance and public health components of the $5.2 trillion US package, such as expanded unemployment insurance and government funding of vaccine development and distribution, were highly appropriate, whereas broad-based stimulus measures, such as the onetime payments to households, were not. Finally, I consider some of the longer-run consequences of the US fiscal policy actions. The aggressive fiscal expansion, along with extensive private saving during the pandemic, is likely to generate rapid growth over the next few years. The rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio, caused by both the policy response and the pandemic recession itself, could limit future fiscal action if anti-debt sentiment reemerges.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76223865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:In this paper we explore the fiscal sustainability of US state and local government pension plans. Specifically, we examine whether, under current benefit and funding policies, state and local pension plans will ever become insolvent and if so, when. We then examine the fiscal cost of stabilizing pension debt as a share of the economy and examine the cost associated with delaying such stabilization into the future. We find that, despite the projected increase in the ratio of beneficiaries to workers as a result of population aging, state and local government pension benefit payments as a share of the economy are currently near their peak and will eventually decline significantly. This previously undocumented pattern reflects the significant reforms enacted by many plans which lower benefits for new hires and cost-of-living adjustments often set beneath the expected pace of inflation. Under low or moderate asset return assumptions, we find that few plans are likely to exhaust their assets over the next few decades. Nonetheless, under these asset returns, plans are currently not sustainable as pension debt is set to rise indefinitely; plans will therefore need to take action to reach sustainability. But the required fiscal adjustments are generally moderate in size and in all cases are substantially lower than the adjustments required under the typical full prefunding benchmark. We also find generally modest returns, if any, to starting this stabilization process now versus a decade in the future. Of course, there is significant heterogeneity, with some plans requiring very large increases to stabilize their pension debt.
{"title":"The Sustainability of State and Local Pensions: A Public Finance Approach","authors":"Jamie Lenney, Finn Schüle, Byron Sheiner, L. Lutz","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0007","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:In this paper we explore the fiscal sustainability of US state and local government pension plans. Specifically, we examine whether, under current benefit and funding policies, state and local pension plans will ever become insolvent and if so, when. We then examine the fiscal cost of stabilizing pension debt as a share of the economy and examine the cost associated with delaying such stabilization into the future. We find that, despite the projected increase in the ratio of beneficiaries to workers as a result of population aging, state and local government pension benefit payments as a share of the economy are currently near their peak and will eventually decline significantly. This previously undocumented pattern reflects the significant reforms enacted by many plans which lower benefits for new hires and cost-of-living adjustments often set beneath the expected pace of inflation. Under low or moderate asset return assumptions, we find that few plans are likely to exhaust their assets over the next few decades. Nonetheless, under these asset returns, plans are currently not sustainable as pension debt is set to rise indefinitely; plans will therefore need to take action to reach sustainability. But the required fiscal adjustments are generally moderate in size and in all cases are substantially lower than the adjustments required under the typical full prefunding benchmark. We also find generally modest returns, if any, to starting this stabilization process now versus a decade in the future. Of course, there is significant heterogeneity, with some plans requiring very large increases to stabilize their pension debt.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85409647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:On the occasion of the fiftieth anniversary of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, I review the extensive body of research that has appeared in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) on the labor market. Much of the research deals with unemployment, a topic of great interest in macroeconomic analysis and policy. I trace the evolution of modern economic analysis of unemployment and the major contributions relating to unemployment in the pages of the Brookings Papers. I also review a number of important contributions to other aspects of labor economics that are part of the BPEA legacy.
{"title":"The Brookings Panel’s Contributions to Research on Labor Markets","authors":"R. Hall","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0002","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:On the occasion of the fiftieth anniversary of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, I review the extensive body of research that has appeared in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) on the labor market. Much of the research deals with unemployment, a topic of great interest in macroeconomic analysis and policy. I trace the evolution of modern economic analysis of unemployment and the major contributions relating to unemployment in the pages of the Brookings Papers. I also review a number of important contributions to other aspects of labor economics that are part of the BPEA legacy.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80058145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment and Discussion","authors":"Gabriel Chodorow-reich","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0038","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72418464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment and Discussion","authors":"Nellie Liang","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0036","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82027181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments and Discussion","authors":"E. Hotchkiss","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0037","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83024061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:We develop a pair of models that speak to the goals and design of the sort of business lending and corporate bond purchase programs that have been introduced by governments in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An overarching theme is that, in contrast to the classic lender-of-last-resort thinking that underpinned much of the response to the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, an effective policy response to the pandemic will require the government to accept the prospect of significant losses on credit extended to private sector firms.
{"title":"Business Credit Programs in the Pandemic Era","authors":"S. Hanson, J. Stein, Adi Sunderam, Eric Zwick","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0031","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We develop a pair of models that speak to the goals and design of the sort of business lending and corporate bond purchase programs that have been introduced by governments in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An overarching theme is that, in contrast to the classic lender-of-last-resort thinking that underpinned much of the response to the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, an effective policy response to the pandemic will require the government to accept the prospect of significant losses on credit extended to private sector firms.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90063424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments and Discussion","authors":"Silvia Miranda-Agrippino","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0035","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88529587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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