ABSTRACT:Over the past fifty years BPEA authors have written extensively about both domestic US productivity growth and international sources of growth differences in rich and poor countries. This paper summarizes and evaluates five BPEA papers on US productivity growth that focus primarily on the sources of the post-1965 growth slowdown and post-1995 growth revival. Then three papers are reviewed on international growth differences, highlighting the difficulties of empirically determining the sources of growth and the competing roles in growth outcomes of structural factors like geography and demography versus policy and governmental issues, including legal systems, property rights, and absence of corruption.
{"title":"Productivity and Growth over the Years at BPEA","authors":"Robert Gordon","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0003","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Over the past fifty years BPEA authors have written extensively about both domestic US productivity growth and international sources of growth differences in rich and poor countries. This paper summarizes and evaluates five BPEA papers on US productivity growth that focus primarily on the sources of the post-1965 growth slowdown and post-1995 growth revival. Then three papers are reviewed on international growth differences, highlighting the difficulties of empirically determining the sources of growth and the competing roles in growth outcomes of structural factors like geography and demography versus policy and governmental issues, including legal systems, property rights, and absence of corruption.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"45 1","pages":"213 - 229"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81109932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments and Discussion","authors":"Brian A. Jacob","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0018","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"65 1","pages":"356 - 363"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86796530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:We measure the economic costs of the US pretrial system using several complementary approaches and data sources. The pretrial system operates as one of the earliest points of entry in the criminal justice system. It typically represents an individual’s first opportunity to be incarcerated, potentially leading to subsequent long-term damage in the form of family separation, work interruption, loss of housing, and so on. We find that individuals lose almost $30,000 in forgone earnings and social benefits when detained in jail while awaiting the resolution of their criminal cases. These adverse consequences are also present in aggregate measures of economic well-being, with increases in county pretrial detention rates associated with increases in poverty rates and decreases in employment rates. Counties with high levels of pretrial detention also exhibit significantly lower levels of intergenerational mobility among children, consistent with pretrial detention having an adverse impact on young children who may be the dependents of individuals affected by the pretrial system.
{"title":"The Economic Costs of Pretrial Detention","authors":"Will Dobbie, Crystal S. Yang","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0005","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We measure the economic costs of the US pretrial system using several complementary approaches and data sources. The pretrial system operates as one of the earliest points of entry in the criminal justice system. It typically represents an individual’s first opportunity to be incarcerated, potentially leading to subsequent long-term damage in the form of family separation, work interruption, loss of housing, and so on. We find that individuals lose almost $30,000 in forgone earnings and social benefits when detained in jail while awaiting the resolution of their criminal cases. These adverse consequences are also present in aggregate measures of economic well-being, with increases in county pretrial detention rates associated with increases in poverty rates and decreases in employment rates. Counties with high levels of pretrial detention also exhibit significantly lower levels of intergenerational mobility among children, consistent with pretrial detention having an adverse impact on young children who may be the dependents of individuals affected by the pretrial system.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"73 1","pages":"251 - 291"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83339407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:Ever since its first issue in 1970, BPEA has played a leading role in the analysis of monetary policy. This paper surveys BPEA’s many contributions to three specific areas: (1) the Phillips curve, which provides the empirical bridge between real economic activity and inflation; (2) the analysis and demise of monetarism, the doctrine that emphasized the money supply over interest rates; and (3) evaluations of and recommendations for actual monetary policy in the United States, which began in the first BPEA issue and continues to this day. BPEA has played a dominant (though not monopoly) role in each of these areas.
{"title":"BPEA and Monetary Policy over Fifty Years","authors":"A. Blinder","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0004","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Ever since its first issue in 1970, BPEA has played a leading role in the analysis of monetary policy. This paper surveys BPEA’s many contributions to three specific areas: (1) the Phillips curve, which provides the empirical bridge between real economic activity and inflation; (2) the analysis and demise of monetarism, the doctrine that emphasized the money supply over interest rates; and (3) evaluations of and recommendations for actual monetary policy in the United States, which began in the first BPEA issue and continues to this day. BPEA has played a dominant (though not monopoly) role in each of these areas.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"25 1","pages":"231 - 250"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89065426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:We review several spending programs designed to support Americans through the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We group these into programs designed to stabilize the labor market and facilitate its recovery and those that provided financial relief to households independent of their employment history. We review the extent to which these programs reached intended beneficiaries along with early evidence of program impacts. Overall, we find the programs were highly successful at delivering intended aid in 2020. Nevertheless, we identify common areas where programs could improve as support continues through 2021, and we discuss related needs that have so far received less attention from policymakers.
{"title":"Supporting Workers and Families in the Pandemic Recession: Results in 2020 and Suggestions for 2021","authors":"Krista J. Ruffini, A. Wozniak","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0000","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We review several spending programs designed to support Americans through the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We group these into programs designed to stabilize the labor market and facilitate its recovery and those that provided financial relief to households independent of their employment history. We review the extent to which these programs reached intended beneficiaries along with early evidence of program impacts. Overall, we find the programs were highly successful at delivering intended aid in 2020. Nevertheless, we identify common areas where programs could improve as support continues through 2021, and we discuss related needs that have so far received less attention from policymakers.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"98 1","pages":"111 - 139"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74413525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:This paper provides estimates of the size and determinants of the fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic across thirty advanced economies. In contrast to the fiscal response to financial crises, I find no evidence that fiscal space was an important determinant of the aggressiveness of pandemic fiscal packages. Focusing in on the US fiscal policy response, I discuss the policy implications of the unique features of a pandemic recession. I argue that the social insurance and public health components of the $5.2 trillion US package, such as expanded unemployment insurance and government funding of vaccine development and distribution, were highly appropriate, whereas broad-based stimulus measures, such as the onetime payments to households, were not. Finally, I consider some of the longer-run consequences of the US fiscal policy actions. The aggressive fiscal expansion, along with extensive private saving during the pandemic, is likely to generate rapid growth over the next few years. The rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio, caused by both the policy response and the pandemic recession itself, could limit future fiscal action if anti-debt sentiment reemerges.
{"title":"The Fiscal Policy Response to the Pandemic","authors":"Christina D. Romer","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0009","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper provides estimates of the size and determinants of the fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic across thirty advanced economies. In contrast to the fiscal response to financial crises, I find no evidence that fiscal space was an important determinant of the aggressiveness of pandemic fiscal packages. Focusing in on the US fiscal policy response, I discuss the policy implications of the unique features of a pandemic recession. I argue that the social insurance and public health components of the $5.2 trillion US package, such as expanded unemployment insurance and government funding of vaccine development and distribution, were highly appropriate, whereas broad-based stimulus measures, such as the onetime payments to households, were not. Finally, I consider some of the longer-run consequences of the US fiscal policy actions. The aggressive fiscal expansion, along with extensive private saving during the pandemic, is likely to generate rapid growth over the next few years. The rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio, caused by both the policy response and the pandemic recession itself, could limit future fiscal action if anti-debt sentiment reemerges.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"14 1","pages":"110 - 89"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76223865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:In this paper we explore the fiscal sustainability of US state and local government pension plans. Specifically, we examine whether, under current benefit and funding policies, state and local pension plans will ever become insolvent and if so, when. We then examine the fiscal cost of stabilizing pension debt as a share of the economy and examine the cost associated with delaying such stabilization into the future. We find that, despite the projected increase in the ratio of beneficiaries to workers as a result of population aging, state and local government pension benefit payments as a share of the economy are currently near their peak and will eventually decline significantly. This previously undocumented pattern reflects the significant reforms enacted by many plans which lower benefits for new hires and cost-of-living adjustments often set beneath the expected pace of inflation. Under low or moderate asset return assumptions, we find that few plans are likely to exhaust their assets over the next few decades. Nonetheless, under these asset returns, plans are currently not sustainable as pension debt is set to rise indefinitely; plans will therefore need to take action to reach sustainability. But the required fiscal adjustments are generally moderate in size and in all cases are substantially lower than the adjustments required under the typical full prefunding benchmark. We also find generally modest returns, if any, to starting this stabilization process now versus a decade in the future. Of course, there is significant heterogeneity, with some plans requiring very large increases to stabilize their pension debt.
{"title":"The Sustainability of State and Local Pensions: A Public Finance Approach","authors":"Jamie Lenney, Finn Schüle, Byron Sheiner, L. Lutz","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0007","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:In this paper we explore the fiscal sustainability of US state and local government pension plans. Specifically, we examine whether, under current benefit and funding policies, state and local pension plans will ever become insolvent and if so, when. We then examine the fiscal cost of stabilizing pension debt as a share of the economy and examine the cost associated with delaying such stabilization into the future. We find that, despite the projected increase in the ratio of beneficiaries to workers as a result of population aging, state and local government pension benefit payments as a share of the economy are currently near their peak and will eventually decline significantly. This previously undocumented pattern reflects the significant reforms enacted by many plans which lower benefits for new hires and cost-of-living adjustments often set beneath the expected pace of inflation. Under low or moderate asset return assumptions, we find that few plans are likely to exhaust their assets over the next few decades. Nonetheless, under these asset returns, plans are currently not sustainable as pension debt is set to rise indefinitely; plans will therefore need to take action to reach sustainability. But the required fiscal adjustments are generally moderate in size and in all cases are substantially lower than the adjustments required under the typical full prefunding benchmark. We also find generally modest returns, if any, to starting this stabilization process now versus a decade in the future. Of course, there is significant heterogeneity, with some plans requiring very large increases to stabilize their pension debt.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"34 1","pages":"1 - 48"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85409647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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