ABSTRACT:On the occasion of the fiftieth anniversary of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, I review the extensive body of research that has appeared in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) on the labor market. Much of the research deals with unemployment, a topic of great interest in macroeconomic analysis and policy. I trace the evolution of modern economic analysis of unemployment and the major contributions relating to unemployment in the pages of the Brookings Papers. I also review a number of important contributions to other aspects of labor economics that are part of the BPEA legacy.
{"title":"The Brookings Panel’s Contributions to Research on Labor Markets","authors":"R. Hall","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0002","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:On the occasion of the fiftieth anniversary of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, I review the extensive body of research that has appeared in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) on the labor market. Much of the research deals with unemployment, a topic of great interest in macroeconomic analysis and policy. I trace the evolution of modern economic analysis of unemployment and the major contributions relating to unemployment in the pages of the Brookings Papers. I also review a number of important contributions to other aspects of labor economics that are part of the BPEA legacy.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"40 1","pages":"199 - 212"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80058145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:We develop a pair of models that speak to the goals and design of the sort of business lending and corporate bond purchase programs that have been introduced by governments in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An overarching theme is that, in contrast to the classic lender-of-last-resort thinking that underpinned much of the response to the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, an effective policy response to the pandemic will require the government to accept the prospect of significant losses on credit extended to private sector firms.
{"title":"Business Credit Programs in the Pandemic Era","authors":"S. Hanson, J. Stein, Adi Sunderam, Eric Zwick","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0031","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We develop a pair of models that speak to the goals and design of the sort of business lending and corporate bond purchase programs that have been introduced by governments in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. An overarching theme is that, in contrast to the classic lender-of-last-resort thinking that underpinned much of the response to the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, an effective policy response to the pandemic will require the government to accept the prospect of significant losses on credit extended to private sector firms.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"16 1","pages":"3 - 60"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90063424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:We examine the period of national lockdown beginning in March 2020 using an integrated epidemiological-econometric framework in which health and economic outcomes are jointly determined. We augment a state-level compartmental model with behavioral responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and to local epidemiological conditions. To calibrate the model, we construct daily, county-level measures of contact rates and employment and estimate key parameters with an event study design. We have three main findings: First, NPIs introduced by state and local governments explain a small fraction of the nationwide decline in contact rates but nevertheless reduced COVID-19 deaths by about 25 percent—saving about 39,000 lives—over the first three months of the pandemic. However, NPIs also explain nearly 15 percent of the decline in employment—around 3 million jobs—over the same period. Second, NPIs that target individual behavior (such as stay-at-home orders) were more effective at reducing transmission at lower economic cost than those that target businesses (shutdowns). Third, an aggressive and well-designed response in the early stages of the pandemic could have improved both epidemiological and economic outcomes over the medium term.
{"title":"Epidemiological and Economic Effects of Lockdown","authors":"Alexander Arnon, J. Ricco, Kent A. Smetters","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0033","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We examine the period of national lockdown beginning in March 2020 using an integrated epidemiological-econometric framework in which health and economic outcomes are jointly determined. We augment a state-level compartmental model with behavioral responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and to local epidemiological conditions. To calibrate the model, we construct daily, county-level measures of contact rates and employment and estimate key parameters with an event study design. We have three main findings: First, NPIs introduced by state and local governments explain a small fraction of the nationwide decline in contact rates but nevertheless reduced COVID-19 deaths by about 25 percent—saving about 39,000 lives—over the first three months of the pandemic. However, NPIs also explain nearly 15 percent of the decline in employment—around 3 million jobs—over the same period. Second, NPIs that target individual behavior (such as stay-at-home orders) were more effective at reducing transmission at lower economic cost than those that target businesses (shutdowns). Third, an aggressive and well-designed response in the early stages of the pandemic could have improved both epidemiological and economic outcomes over the medium term.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"224 1","pages":"108 - 61"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89028223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Auerbach, William G. Gale, Byron Lutz, Louise M. Sheiner
ABSTRACT:This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated policy responses affected federal, state, and local government budgets. The pandemic raised federal deficits temporarily but has had a modest effect on long-term budget projections, in part because of sharply lower projections of interest rates. With low interest rates and the economy in recession, the debt accumulation resulting from the pandemic does not require immediate offsetting policies. For state and local governments, we note the unusual nature of the current recession: the concentration of job losses among low-wage workers; the unprecedented increases and expansions of unemployment insurance benefits and business loans; and strong performance by the stock market. To address these issues, we use a bottom-up approach that accounts for the geographic variation in economic outcomes. Relative to analyses based on the historical relation between revenues and the unemployment rate, we estimate notably smaller revenue losses. We further estimate that federal aid has been large relative to these revenue losses, but not necessarily relative to need—for public health, remedial schooling, services for the elderly, and others—especially if the pandemic persists and especially in certain hard-hit states.
{"title":"Effects of COVID-19 on Federal, State, and Local Government Budgets","authors":"A. Auerbach, William G. Gale, Byron Lutz, Louise M. Sheiner","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0028","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated policy responses affected federal, state, and local government budgets. The pandemic raised federal deficits temporarily but has had a modest effect on long-term budget projections, in part because of sharply lower projections of interest rates. With low interest rates and the economy in recession, the debt accumulation resulting from the pandemic does not require immediate offsetting policies. For state and local governments, we note the unusual nature of the current recession: the concentration of job losses among low-wage workers; the unprecedented increases and expansions of unemployment insurance benefits and business loans; and strong performance by the stock market. To address these issues, we use a bottom-up approach that accounts for the geographic variation in economic outcomes. Relative to analyses based on the historical relation between revenues and the unemployment rate, we estimate notably smaller revenue losses. We further estimate that federal aid has been large relative to these revenue losses, but not necessarily relative to need—for public health, remedial schooling, services for the elderly, and others—especially if the pandemic persists and especially in certain hard-hit states.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"77 1","pages":"229 - 278"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83392256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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