ABSTRACT:We examine the period of national lockdown beginning in March 2020 using an integrated epidemiological-econometric framework in which health and economic outcomes are jointly determined. We augment a state-level compartmental model with behavioral responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and to local epidemiological conditions. To calibrate the model, we construct daily, county-level measures of contact rates and employment and estimate key parameters with an event study design. We have three main findings: First, NPIs introduced by state and local governments explain a small fraction of the nationwide decline in contact rates but nevertheless reduced COVID-19 deaths by about 25 percent—saving about 39,000 lives—over the first three months of the pandemic. However, NPIs also explain nearly 15 percent of the decline in employment—around 3 million jobs—over the same period. Second, NPIs that target individual behavior (such as stay-at-home orders) were more effective at reducing transmission at lower economic cost than those that target businesses (shutdowns). Third, an aggressive and well-designed response in the early stages of the pandemic could have improved both epidemiological and economic outcomes over the medium term.
{"title":"Epidemiological and Economic Effects of Lockdown","authors":"Alexander Arnon, J. Ricco, Kent A. Smetters","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0033","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We examine the period of national lockdown beginning in March 2020 using an integrated epidemiological-econometric framework in which health and economic outcomes are jointly determined. We augment a state-level compartmental model with behavioral responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and to local epidemiological conditions. To calibrate the model, we construct daily, county-level measures of contact rates and employment and estimate key parameters with an event study design. We have three main findings: First, NPIs introduced by state and local governments explain a small fraction of the nationwide decline in contact rates but nevertheless reduced COVID-19 deaths by about 25 percent—saving about 39,000 lives—over the first three months of the pandemic. However, NPIs also explain nearly 15 percent of the decline in employment—around 3 million jobs—over the same period. Second, NPIs that target individual behavior (such as stay-at-home orders) were more effective at reducing transmission at lower economic cost than those that target businesses (shutdowns). Third, an aggressive and well-designed response in the early stages of the pandemic could have improved both epidemiological and economic outcomes over the medium term.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89028223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment and Discussion","authors":"A. Atkeson","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0041","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79975814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment and Discussion","authors":"A. Fogli","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0040","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78834933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment and Discussion","authors":"D. Holtz-eakin","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0039","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78699773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Auerbach, William G. Gale, Byron Lutz, Louise M. Sheiner
ABSTRACT:This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated policy responses affected federal, state, and local government budgets. The pandemic raised federal deficits temporarily but has had a modest effect on long-term budget projections, in part because of sharply lower projections of interest rates. With low interest rates and the economy in recession, the debt accumulation resulting from the pandemic does not require immediate offsetting policies. For state and local governments, we note the unusual nature of the current recession: the concentration of job losses among low-wage workers; the unprecedented increases and expansions of unemployment insurance benefits and business loans; and strong performance by the stock market. To address these issues, we use a bottom-up approach that accounts for the geographic variation in economic outcomes. Relative to analyses based on the historical relation between revenues and the unemployment rate, we estimate notably smaller revenue losses. We further estimate that federal aid has been large relative to these revenue losses, but not necessarily relative to need—for public health, remedial schooling, services for the elderly, and others—especially if the pandemic persists and especially in certain hard-hit states.
{"title":"Effects of COVID-19 on Federal, State, and Local Government Budgets","authors":"A. Auerbach, William G. Gale, Byron Lutz, Louise M. Sheiner","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0028","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated policy responses affected federal, state, and local government budgets. The pandemic raised federal deficits temporarily but has had a modest effect on long-term budget projections, in part because of sharply lower projections of interest rates. With low interest rates and the economy in recession, the debt accumulation resulting from the pandemic does not require immediate offsetting policies. For state and local governments, we note the unusual nature of the current recession: the concentration of job losses among low-wage workers; the unprecedented increases and expansions of unemployment insurance benefits and business loans; and strong performance by the stock market. To address these issues, we use a bottom-up approach that accounts for the geographic variation in economic outcomes. Relative to analyses based on the historical relation between revenues and the unemployment rate, we estimate notably smaller revenue losses. We further estimate that federal aid has been large relative to these revenue losses, but not necessarily relative to need—for public health, remedial schooling, services for the elderly, and others—especially if the pandemic persists and especially in certain hard-hit states.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83392256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comment and Discussion","authors":"Eric Zwick","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0042","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83625051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
"This paper provides new estimates of the impact of immigration and trade on the U.S. labor market.... We examine the relation between economic outcomes for native workers and immigrant flows to regional labor markets.... We...use the factor proportions approach to examine the contributions of immigration and trade to recent changes in U.S. educational wage differentials and attempt to provide a broader assessment of the impact of immigration on the incomes of U.S. natives." Comments and discussion by John DiNardo, John M. Abowd, and others are included (pp. 68-85).
“这篇论文对移民和贸易对美国劳动力市场的影响提供了新的估计....我们研究了本地工人的经济结果与移民流向区域劳动力市场....之间的关系我们……使用因子比例法来检查移民和贸易对美国教育工资差异近期变化的贡献，并试图对移民对美国本地人收入的影响提供更广泛的评估。”包括John DiNardo, John M. Abowd和其他人的评论和讨论(第68-85页)。
{"title":"How much do immigration and trade affect labor market outcomes?","authors":"G. Borjas, Richard B. Freeman, Lawrence F. Katz","doi":"10.2307/2534701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2534701","url":null,"abstract":"\"This paper provides new estimates of the impact of immigration and trade on the U.S. labor market.... We examine the relation between economic outcomes for native workers and immigrant flows to regional labor markets.... We...use the factor proportions approach to examine the contributions of immigration and trade to recent changes in U.S. educational wage differentials and attempt to provide a broader assessment of the impact of immigration on the incomes of U.S. natives.\" Comments and discussion by John DiNardo, John M. Abowd, and others are included (pp. 68-85).","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87990747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period from 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed US commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55 percent of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86 percent of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population head counts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native born who are 25–39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively—but not quantitatively—similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes.
{"title":"On the Persistence of the China Shock","authors":"David Autor, David Dorn, G. Hanson","doi":"10.1353/eca.2022.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2022.0005","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period from 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed US commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55 percent of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86 percent of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population head counts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native born who are 25–39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively—but not quantitatively—similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85214921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:A model of private and public behavior to mitigate disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year in the United States addresses two questions: What dynamics of infections and deaths should we expect to see from a pandemic? What are our options for mitigating the impact of a pandemic on public health? I find that behavior turns what would be a short and extremely sharp epidemic into a long, drawn-out one, with, at best, a modest impact on the long-run death toll from the disease. Absent the development of a technological solution, such as vaccines or life-saving therapeutics, additional public health interventions suffer from rapidly diminishing returns in improving long-run outcomes. In contrast, rapidly implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions, in combination with the rapid development of technological solutions, could have saved nearly 300,000 lives relative to what is now projected as of mid-June 2021 to occur over the long run.
{"title":"Behavior and the Dynamics of Epidemics","authors":"A. Atkeson","doi":"10.1353/eca.2021.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2021.0008","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:A model of private and public behavior to mitigate disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year in the United States addresses two questions: What dynamics of infections and deaths should we expect to see from a pandemic? What are our options for mitigating the impact of a pandemic on public health? I find that behavior turns what would be a short and extremely sharp epidemic into a long, drawn-out one, with, at best, a modest impact on the long-run death toll from the disease. Absent the development of a technological solution, such as vaccines or life-saving therapeutics, additional public health interventions suffer from rapidly diminishing returns in improving long-run outcomes. In contrast, rapidly implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions, in combination with the rapid development of technological solutions, could have saved nearly 300,000 lives relative to what is now projected as of mid-June 2021 to occur over the long run.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80056794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments and Discussion","authors":"","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0019","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77431660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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