J. Gallant, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, Matthew J. Notowidigdo
ABSTRACT:This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the United States. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001–2019, and we find that the model-based job-finding rates match observed job-finding rates during the entire sample period and out of sample up through July 2020. We also find that the Beveridge curve is well behaved and that there is little change in market tightness in 2020 once we use the calibrated model to adjust for changes in the composition of the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next eighteen months. Under a range of assumptions about job losses and labor demand, our model predicts a more rapid recovery compared to a model that does not distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. In order to rationalize the professional forecasts of the unemployment rate, some combination of the vacancy rate, the job-separation rate, and the recall rate of workers on temporary layoff must deteriorate substantially in the next several months.
{"title":"Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics during the COVID-19 Recession","authors":"J. Gallant, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, Matthew J. Notowidigdo","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0032","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the United States. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001–2019, and we find that the model-based job-finding rates match observed job-finding rates during the entire sample period and out of sample up through July 2020. We also find that the Beveridge curve is well behaved and that there is little change in market tightness in 2020 once we use the calibrated model to adjust for changes in the composition of the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next eighteen months. Under a range of assumptions about job losses and labor demand, our model predicts a more rapid recovery compared to a model that does not distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. In order to rationalize the professional forecasts of the unemployment rate, some combination of the vacancy rate, the job-separation rate, and the recall rate of workers on temporary layoff must deteriorate substantially in the next several months.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76916542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:Enacted March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was the most ambitious and creative fiscal policy response to the pandemic recession in the United States. PPP offers forgivable loans—essentially grants—to businesses with 500 or fewer employees that meet certain requirements. In this paper, we present evidence that PPP has substantially increased the employment, financial health, and survival of small businesses, using data from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. We use event studies and standard difference-in-differences models to estimate the effect of a small business applying for larger PPP loans and of a small business being eligible for PPP based on size. While our findings are informative, we believe it is too early to issue conclusive judgment on PPP's success. We offer lessons for the future from the PPP experience thus far.
{"title":"Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?","authors":"G. Hubbard, M. Strain","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0027","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Enacted March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was the most ambitious and creative fiscal policy response to the pandemic recession in the United States. PPP offers forgivable loans—essentially grants—to businesses with 500 or fewer employees that meet certain requirements. In this paper, we present evidence that PPP has substantially increased the employment, financial health, and survival of small businesses, using data from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. We use event studies and standard difference-in-differences models to estimate the effect of a small business applying for larger PPP loans and of a small business being eligible for PPP based on size. While our findings are informative, we believe it is too early to issue conclusive judgment on PPP's success. We offer lessons for the future from the PPP experience thus far.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75189390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:This paper combines data on GDP and unemployment and from Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports with data on deaths from COVID-19 to study the macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic. We present results from an international perspective using data at the country level as well as results for individual US states and key cities throughout the world. The data from these different levels of geographic aggregation offer a remarkably similar view of the pandemic despite the substantial heterogeneity in outcomes. Countries like South Korea, Japan, Germany, and Norway and cities such as Tokyo and Seoul have comparatively few deaths and low macroeconomic losses. At the other extreme, New York City, Lombardy, the United Kingdom, and Madrid have many deaths and large macroeconomic losses. There are fewer locations that seem to succeed on one dimension but suffer on the other, but these include California and Sweden. The variety of cases potentially offers useful policy lessons regarding how to use non-pharmaceutical interventions to support good economic and health outcomes.
{"title":"Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report","authors":"Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, C. I. Jones","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0034","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper combines data on GDP and unemployment and from Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports with data on deaths from COVID-19 to study the macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic. We present results from an international perspective using data at the country level as well as results for individual US states and key cities throughout the world. The data from these different levels of geographic aggregation offer a remarkably similar view of the pandemic despite the substantial heterogeneity in outcomes. Countries like South Korea, Japan, Germany, and Norway and cities such as Tokyo and Seoul have comparatively few deaths and low macroeconomic losses. At the other extreme, New York City, Lombardy, the United Kingdom, and Madrid have many deaths and large macroeconomic losses. There are fewer locations that seem to succeed on one dimension but suffer on the other, but these include California and Sweden. The variety of cases potentially offers useful policy lessons regarding how to use non-pharmaceutical interventions to support good economic and health outcomes.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77430844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments and Discussion","authors":"Michael T. Kiley, Luminita Stevens","doi":"10.1353/eca.2019.0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2019.0022","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77590857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:This paper reviews the various macroeconomic stabilization programs implemented during the Macri government between 2015 and 2019. After an initial success, each program was discontinued because of a distinct form of fiscal dominance: as pensions are indexed with a lag and represent a large portion of spending, quick disinflations jeopardize fiscal consolidation. Thus, lack of progress on the fiscal front was the fundamental reason why the objective of macroeconomic stability remained elusive.
{"title":"Macri's Macro: The Elusive Road to Stability and Growth","authors":"F. Sturzenegger","doi":"10.1353/eca.2019.0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2019.0016","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper reviews the various macroeconomic stabilization programs implemented during the Macri government between 2015 and 2019. After an initial success, each program was discontinued because of a distinct form of fiscal dominance: as pensions are indexed with a lag and represent a large portion of spending, quick disinflations jeopardize fiscal consolidation. Thus, lack of progress on the fiscal front was the fundamental reason why the objective of macroeconomic stability remained elusive.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89078682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments and Discussion","authors":"W. Kopczuk, N. Mankiw","doi":"10.1353/eca.2019.0023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2019.0023","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83310266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments and Discussion","authors":"Javier Cravino, M. Kose","doi":"10.1353/eca.2019.0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2019.0018","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74989133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments and Discussion","authors":"Amy N. Finkelstein, J. Skinner","doi":"10.1353/eca.2019.0021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2019.0021","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83272219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:This paper discusses the progressive taxation of household wealth. We first discuss what wealth is, how it is distributed, and how much revenue a progressive wealth tax could generate in the United States. We try to reconcile discrepancies across wealth data sources. Second, we discuss the role a wealth tax can play to increase the overall progressivity of the U.S. tax system. Third, we discuss the empirical evidence on wealth tax avoidance and evasion as well as tax enforcement policies. We summarize the key elements needed to make a U.S. wealth tax work in light of the experience of other countries. Fourth, we discuss the real economic effects of wealth taxation on inequality, the capital stock, and economic activity. Fifth, we present a simple tractable model of the taxation of billionaires' wealth that can be applied to the Forbes list of the four hundred richest Americans since 1982 to illustrate the long-run effects of concrete wealth tax proposals on top fortunes.
{"title":"Progressive Wealth Taxation","authors":"Emmanuel Saez, G. Zucman","doi":"10.1353/eca.2019.0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2019.0017","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper discusses the progressive taxation of household wealth. We first discuss what wealth is, how it is distributed, and how much revenue a progressive wealth tax could generate in the United States. We try to reconcile discrepancies across wealth data sources. Second, we discuss the role a wealth tax can play to increase the overall progressivity of the U.S. tax system. Third, we discuss the empirical evidence on wealth tax avoidance and evasion as well as tax enforcement policies. We summarize the key elements needed to make a U.S. wealth tax work in light of the experience of other countries. Fourth, we discuss the real economic effects of wealth taxation on inequality, the capital stock, and economic activity. Fifth, we present a simple tractable model of the taxation of billionaires' wealth that can be applied to the Forbes list of the four hundred richest Americans since 1982 to illustrate the long-run effects of concrete wealth tax proposals on top fortunes.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73201284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christopher Avery, Jessica S. Howell, M. Pender, Bruce I. Sacerdote
ABSTRACT:We consider four distinct policy levers available to states for raising bachelor's degree completion rates in the United States through their public colleges and universities. We simulate these policies using elasticities from the existing literature and a matched College Board/National Student Clearinghouse data set on enrollment and degree completion. Increasing spending at public colleges and targeted elimination of tuition and fees at four-year public colleges with an income cutoff are projected to be the most effective of these policies in terms of cost per additional bachelor's degree. Reducing tuition and fees at public colleges and a distinct policy of moving students to the best available in-state public college (BISPO) are next best on a cost-benefit basis. Free community college policies are significantly less cost-effective at raising bachelor's degree completion, though such policies do improve other outcomes. Reducing community college tuition and fees to zero does lead to more associate degrees, though students are drawn away from the four-year sector in the process. Low-income students see the smallest gains from free community college policies since these students already face very low net prices of attendance.
{"title":"Policies and Payoffs to Addressing America's College Graduation Deficit","authors":"Christopher Avery, Jessica S. Howell, M. Pender, Bruce I. Sacerdote","doi":"10.1353/eca.2019.0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2019.0013","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We consider four distinct policy levers available to states for raising bachelor's degree completion rates in the United States through their public colleges and universities. We simulate these policies using elasticities from the existing literature and a matched College Board/National Student Clearinghouse data set on enrollment and degree completion. Increasing spending at public colleges and targeted elimination of tuition and fees at four-year public colleges with an income cutoff are projected to be the most effective of these policies in terms of cost per additional bachelor's degree. Reducing tuition and fees at public colleges and a distinct policy of moving students to the best available in-state public college (BISPO) are next best on a cost-benefit basis. Free community college policies are significantly less cost-effective at raising bachelor's degree completion, though such policies do improve other outcomes. Reducing community college tuition and fees to zero does lead to more associate degrees, though students are drawn away from the four-year sector in the process. Low-income students see the smallest gains from free community college policies since these students already face very low net prices of attendance.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76572519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：