ABSTRACT:After the global financial crisis, bank regulation became more stringent, and as a result the traditional banking system was well capitalized leading into the COVID-19 pandemic. But these same regulatory changes also incentivized a continuing migration of traditional banking activities to nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), where looser regulation allowed for dangerous buildups of systemic risk. These risks were then realized across many NBFIs and markets in 2020. While legislation to harmonize regulation across these different domains would be desirable, we do not believe it likely in the foreseeable future. In this paper we propose a congruence principle for financial regulation, whereby regulators use existing statutory authority to coordinate rules across economically similar instruments. We provide examples of how such congruence could work for the cases of nonprime mortgage finance and the markets for US Treasury securities.
{"title":"Congruent Financial Regulation","authors":"Andrew Metrick, D. Tarullo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3817621","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3817621","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:After the global financial crisis, bank regulation became more stringent, and as a result the traditional banking system was well capitalized leading into the COVID-19 pandemic. But these same regulatory changes also incentivized a continuing migration of traditional banking activities to nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), where looser regulation allowed for dangerous buildups of systemic risk. These risks were then realized across many NBFIs and markets in 2020. While legislation to harmonize regulation across these different domains would be desirable, we do not believe it likely in the foreseeable future. In this paper we propose a congruence principle for financial regulation, whereby regulators use existing statutory authority to coordinate rules across economically similar instruments. We provide examples of how such congruence could work for the cases of nonprime mortgage finance and the markets for US Treasury securities.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"93 1","pages":"143 - 181"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80443972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shelby R. Buckman, Laura Choi, M. Daly, Lily Seitelman
ABSTRACT:How much larger would the US economic pie be if labor market outcomes were more equitably distributed by race and ethnicity? Using data from the Current Population Survey (1990–2019), we estimate the improvements in labor contribution to aggregate output associated with making the outcomes for Black, Hispanic, and other minority groups at least as favorable as those for non-Hispanic white individuals in employment, hours worked, educational attainment, educational utilization, and earnings. We find significant economic gains, measured in trillions of dollars of GDP. Our results indicate that ensuring all Americans have an equitable opportunity to participate in the economy is an economically significant way to increase aggregate prosperity.
{"title":"The Economic Gains from Equity","authors":"Shelby R. Buckman, Laura Choi, M. Daly, Lily Seitelman","doi":"10.1353/eca.2022.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2022.0001","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:How much larger would the US economic pie be if labor market outcomes were more equitably distributed by race and ethnicity? Using data from the Current Population Survey (1990–2019), we estimate the improvements in labor contribution to aggregate output associated with making the outcomes for Black, Hispanic, and other minority groups at least as favorable as those for non-Hispanic white individuals in employment, hours worked, educational attainment, educational utilization, and earnings. We find significant economic gains, measured in trillions of dollars of GDP. Our results indicate that ensuring all Americans have an equitable opportunity to participate in the economy is an economically significant way to increase aggregate prosperity.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"6 1","pages":"139 - 71"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80504505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Cherry, E. Jiang, Gregor Matvos, T. Piskorski, Amit Seru
ABSTRACT:We study the suspension of household debt payments (debt forbearance) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between March 2020 and May 2021, more than 70 million consumers with loans worth $2.3 trillion entered forbearance, missing $86 billion of their payments. This debt relief can help explain the absence of consumer defaults relative to the evolution of economic fundamentals. Borrowers' self-selection is a powerful force in determining forbearance rates: relief flows to households suffering pandemic-induced shocks that would otherwise have faced debt distress. Moreover, 55 percent of forbearance is provided to less creditworthy borrowers with above median income and higher debt balances—that is, those excluded from income-based policies, such as the stimulus check program. A fifth of borrowers in forbearance continued making full payments, suggesting that forbearance acts as a credit line. By May 2021, about 60 percent of borrowers had already exited forbearance while more financially vulnerable and lower income borrowers were still in forbearance with an accumulated debt overhang of about $60 billion. Exploiting a discontinuity in mortgage eligibility under the CARES Act, we estimate that implicit government debt relief subsidies increase the rate of forbearance by about a third. Government relief is provided through private intermediaries, with shadow banks less likely to provide forbearance than traditional banks.
{"title":"Government and Private Household Debt Relief during COVID-19","authors":"S. Cherry, E. Jiang, Gregor Matvos, T. Piskorski, Amit Seru","doi":"10.1353/eca.2022.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2022.0002","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We study the suspension of household debt payments (debt forbearance) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Between March 2020 and May 2021, more than 70 million consumers with loans worth $2.3 trillion entered forbearance, missing $86 billion of their payments. This debt relief can help explain the absence of consumer defaults relative to the evolution of economic fundamentals. Borrowers' self-selection is a powerful force in determining forbearance rates: relief flows to households suffering pandemic-induced shocks that would otherwise have faced debt distress. Moreover, 55 percent of forbearance is provided to less creditworthy borrowers with above median income and higher debt balances—that is, those excluded from income-based policies, such as the stimulus check program. A fifth of borrowers in forbearance continued making full payments, suggesting that forbearance acts as a credit line. By May 2021, about 60 percent of borrowers had already exited forbearance while more financially vulnerable and lower income borrowers were still in forbearance with an accumulated debt overhang of about $60 billion. Exploiting a discontinuity in mortgage eligibility under the CARES Act, we estimate that implicit government debt relief subsidies increase the rate of forbearance by about a third. Government relief is provided through private intermediaries, with shadow banks less likely to provide forbearance than traditional banks.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"32 1","pages":"141 - 221"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86627736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial distress in the business sector. Some firms will be able to survive, while others will face bankruptcy and thus need to be liquidated or reorganized. Many surviving firms will need to be downsized or acquired. In normal times, this triage is supported by the court system, banks, and financial markets. The goal of this paper is to size up the coming surge of financial distress, list the challenges it presents in the current environment, and offer potential policy solutions. Overall, our analysis suggests that the two key issues will be court congestion and excess liquidation and failure of small firms.
{"title":"Sizing Up Corporate Restructuring in the COVID-19 Crisis","authors":"R. Greenwood, Benjamin Iverson, D. Thesmar","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0029","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial distress in the business sector. Some firms will be able to survive, while others will face bankruptcy and thus need to be liquidated or reorganized. Many surviving firms will need to be downsized or acquired. In normal times, this triage is supported by the court system, banks, and financial markets. The goal of this paper is to size up the coming surge of financial distress, list the challenges it presents in the current environment, and offer potential policy solutions. Overall, our analysis suggests that the two key issues will be court congestion and excess liquidation and failure of small firms.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"16 1","pages":"391 - 441"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75124095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:The COVID-19 epidemic upended social and economic life in the United States. To reduce transmission, people altered their mobility and interpersonal contact, and state and local governments acted to induce social distancing through across-the-board policies. The epidemic and the subsequent social distancing response led to high unemployment and to efforts to reopen the economy using more-targeted virus mitigation policies.This paper makes five contributions to studying epidemic policy and mobility. First, we review COVID-19 research on mobility, labor markets, consumer behavior, and health. Second, we sketch a simple model of incentives and constraints facing individuals. Third, we propose a typology of government social distancing policies. Fourth, we review new databases measuring cellular mobility and contact. Fifth, we present regression evidence to help disentangle private versus policy-induced changes in mobility.During the shutdown phase, large declines in mobility occurred before states adopted stay-at-home (SAH) mandates and in states that never adopted them, suggesting that much of the decline was a private response to the risk of infection. Similarly, in the reopening phase mobility increased rapidly, mostly preceding official state reopenings, with policies explaining almost none of the increase.
{"title":"Mandated and Voluntary Social Distancing during the COVID-19 Epidemic","authors":"Sumedha Gupta, K. Simon, Coady Wing","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0011","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:The COVID-19 epidemic upended social and economic life in the United States. To reduce transmission, people altered their mobility and interpersonal contact, and state and local governments acted to induce social distancing through across-the-board policies. The epidemic and the subsequent social distancing response led to high unemployment and to efforts to reopen the economy using more-targeted virus mitigation policies.This paper makes five contributions to studying epidemic policy and mobility. First, we review COVID-19 research on mobility, labor markets, consumer behavior, and health. Second, we sketch a simple model of incentives and constraints facing individuals. Third, we propose a typology of government social distancing policies. Fourth, we review new databases measuring cellular mobility and contact. Fifth, we present regression evidence to help disentangle private versus policy-induced changes in mobility.During the shutdown phase, large declines in mobility occurred before states adopted stay-at-home (SAH) mandates and in states that never adopted them, suggesting that much of the decline was a private response to the risk of infection. Similarly, in the reopening phase mobility increased rapidly, mostly preceding official state reopenings, with policies explaining almost none of the increase.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"23 1","pages":"269 - 326"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78138766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:Over the twenty-first century, and especially since 2014, global exchange rate volatility has been trending downward, notably among the core G3 currencies (dollar, euro, and the yen), and to some extent the G4 (including China). This stability continued through the COVID-19 recession to date—unusual, as exchange volatility generally rises in US recessions. Compared with measures of stock price volatility, exchange rate volatility rivals the lows reached in the heyday of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. This paper argues that the core driver is convergence in monetary policy, reflected in a sharp reduction of inflation and short- and especially long-term interest rate differentials. This unprecedented stability, which partially extends to emerging markets, is strongly reinforced by expectations that the zero bound will be significantly binding for advanced economies for years to come. We consider various hypotheses and suggest that the shutdown of monetary volatility is the leading explanation. The concluding part of the paper cautions that systemic economic crises often produce major turning points, so a collapse of this new and extended Bretton Woods II regime cannot be ruled out.
{"title":"Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?","authors":"E. Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0030","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Over the twenty-first century, and especially since 2014, global exchange rate volatility has been trending downward, notably among the core G3 currencies (dollar, euro, and the yen), and to some extent the G4 (including China). This stability continued through the COVID-19 recession to date—unusual, as exchange volatility generally rises in US recessions. Compared with measures of stock price volatility, exchange rate volatility rivals the lows reached in the heyday of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. This paper argues that the core driver is convergence in monetary policy, reflected in a sharp reduction of inflation and short- and especially long-term interest rate differentials. This unprecedented stability, which partially extends to emerging markets, is strongly reinforced by expectations that the zero bound will be significantly binding for advanced economies for years to come. We consider various hypotheses and suggest that the shutdown of monetary volatility is the leading explanation. The concluding part of the paper cautions that systemic economic crises often produce major turning points, so a collapse of this new and extended Bretton Woods II regime cannot be ruled out.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"257 1","pages":"279 - 332"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85839473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Gallant, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, Matthew J. Notowidigdo
ABSTRACT:This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the United States. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001–2019, and we find that the model-based job-finding rates match observed job-finding rates during the entire sample period and out of sample up through July 2020. We also find that the Beveridge curve is well behaved and that there is little change in market tightness in 2020 once we use the calibrated model to adjust for changes in the composition of the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next eighteen months. Under a range of assumptions about job losses and labor demand, our model predicts a more rapid recovery compared to a model that does not distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. In order to rationalize the professional forecasts of the unemployment rate, some combination of the vacancy rate, the job-separation rate, and the recall rate of workers on temporary layoff must deteriorate substantially in the next several months.
{"title":"Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics during the COVID-19 Recession","authors":"J. Gallant, Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, Matthew J. Notowidigdo","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0032","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the United States. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001–2019, and we find that the model-based job-finding rates match observed job-finding rates during the entire sample period and out of sample up through July 2020. We also find that the Beveridge curve is well behaved and that there is little change in market tightness in 2020 once we use the calibrated model to adjust for changes in the composition of the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next eighteen months. Under a range of assumptions about job losses and labor demand, our model predicts a more rapid recovery compared to a model that does not distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. In order to rationalize the professional forecasts of the unemployment rate, some combination of the vacancy rate, the job-separation rate, and the recall rate of workers on temporary layoff must deteriorate substantially in the next several months.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"172 1","pages":"167 - 226"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76916542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:Enacted March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was the most ambitious and creative fiscal policy response to the pandemic recession in the United States. PPP offers forgivable loans—essentially grants—to businesses with 500 or fewer employees that meet certain requirements. In this paper, we present evidence that PPP has substantially increased the employment, financial health, and survival of small businesses, using data from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. We use event studies and standard difference-in-differences models to estimate the effect of a small business applying for larger PPP loans and of a small business being eligible for PPP based on size. While our findings are informative, we believe it is too early to issue conclusive judgment on PPP's success. We offer lessons for the future from the PPP experience thus far.
{"title":"Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?","authors":"G. Hubbard, M. Strain","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0027","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:Enacted March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was the most ambitious and creative fiscal policy response to the pandemic recession in the United States. PPP offers forgivable loans—essentially grants—to businesses with 500 or fewer employees that meet certain requirements. In this paper, we present evidence that PPP has substantially increased the employment, financial health, and survival of small businesses, using data from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. We use event studies and standard difference-in-differences models to estimate the effect of a small business applying for larger PPP loans and of a small business being eligible for PPP based on size. While our findings are informative, we believe it is too early to issue conclusive judgment on PPP's success. We offer lessons for the future from the PPP experience thus far.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"30 1","pages":"335 - 390"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75189390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT:This paper combines data on GDP and unemployment and from Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports with data on deaths from COVID-19 to study the macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic. We present results from an international perspective using data at the country level as well as results for individual US states and key cities throughout the world. The data from these different levels of geographic aggregation offer a remarkably similar view of the pandemic despite the substantial heterogeneity in outcomes. Countries like South Korea, Japan, Germany, and Norway and cities such as Tokyo and Seoul have comparatively few deaths and low macroeconomic losses. At the other extreme, New York City, Lombardy, the United Kingdom, and Madrid have many deaths and large macroeconomic losses. There are fewer locations that seem to succeed on one dimension but suffer on the other, but these include California and Sweden. The variety of cases potentially offers useful policy lessons regarding how to use non-pharmaceutical interventions to support good economic and health outcomes.
{"title":"Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report","authors":"Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, C. I. Jones","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0034","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper combines data on GDP and unemployment and from Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports with data on deaths from COVID-19 to study the macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic. We present results from an international perspective using data at the country level as well as results for individual US states and key cities throughout the world. The data from these different levels of geographic aggregation offer a remarkably similar view of the pandemic despite the substantial heterogeneity in outcomes. Countries like South Korea, Japan, Germany, and Norway and cities such as Tokyo and Seoul have comparatively few deaths and low macroeconomic losses. At the other extreme, New York City, Lombardy, the United Kingdom, and Madrid have many deaths and large macroeconomic losses. There are fewer locations that seem to succeed on one dimension but suffer on the other, but these include California and Sweden. The variety of cases potentially offers useful policy lessons regarding how to use non-pharmaceutical interventions to support good economic and health outcomes.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"150 1","pages":"111 - 166"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77430844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comments and Discussion","authors":"Michael T. Kiley, Luminita Stevens","doi":"10.1353/eca.2019.0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2019.0022","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"321 1","pages":"231 - 255"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2020-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77590857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：