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EDAS METHOD FOR MULTIPLE ATTRIBUTE GROUP DECISION MAKING WITH PROBABILISTIC DUAL HESITANT FUZZY INFORMATION AND ITS APPLICATION TO SUPPLIERS SELECTION 基于概率对偶犹豫模糊信息的多属性群决策Edas方法及其在供应商选择中的应用
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-23 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.17589
Baoquan Ning, R. Lin, G. Wei, Xudong Chen
Probabilistic dual hesitant fuzzy set (PDHFS) is a more powerful and important tool to describe uncertain information regarded as generalization of hesitant fuzzy set (HFS) and dual HFS (DHFS), not only reflects the hesitant attitude of decision-makers (DMs), but also reflects the probability information of DMs. Score function of fuzzy number and weighting method are very important in multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) issues. In many fuzzy environments, the score function and entropy measure have been proposed one after another. Firstly, based on the detailed analysis of the existed score function of PDHF element (PDHFE) and with the help of previous references, we build a novel score function for PDHFE. Secondly, a combined weighting method is built based on the minimum identification information principle by fusing PDHF entropy and Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method. Thirdly, a novel PDHF MAGDM approach (PDHF-EDAS) is built by extending evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS) approach to the PDHF environment to solve the issue that the decision attribute information is PDHFE. Finally, the practicability and effectiveness of the PDHF MAGDM technique is verified by suppliers selection (SS) and comparing analysis with existing methods.
概率对偶犹豫模糊集(PDHFS)是对犹豫模糊集(HFS)和对偶犹豫模糊集(DHFS)的泛化,是描述不确定信息的一种更强大、更重要的工具,它不仅反映了决策者的犹豫态度,也反映了决策者的概率信息。在多属性群体决策问题中,模糊数的评分函数和权重法是非常重要的。在许多模糊环境中,分数函数和熵测度相继被提出。首先,在详细分析现有PDHFE元素评分函数(PDHFE)的基础上,借助前人的文献,构建了新的PDHFE评分函数。其次,基于最小识别信息原理,将PDHF熵和准则重要性通过准则间相关(critical)方法融合,建立了组合加权方法;第三,将基于距离平均解(EDAS)的评价方法扩展到PDHF环境,构建了一种新的PDHF MAGDM方法(PDHF-EDAS),解决了决策属性信息为PDHFE的问题。最后,通过供应商选择(SS)和与现有方法的对比分析,验证了PDHF MAGDM技术的实用性和有效性。
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引用次数: 5
PLS-SEM MODEL ON BUSINESS DEMAND FOR TECHNOLOGICAL SERVICES AND R&D AND INNOVATION ACTIVITIES 请查看技术服务和研发创新活动的业务需求模型
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-12 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2023.17968
Juan J. García-Machado, W. Sroka, M. Nowak
The aim of the current study is to search for the elements that determine the companies’ demand for technological services, and by doing so, to contribute to the advancement of a closer University-Company partnership in the sphere of activities in research, development and innovation. Based on the PLS-SEM methodology, an explanatory-predictive model was drawn up, which concluded that the four most influential variables are: the influence of the environment, market conditions, the technology adoption decision and the economic characteristics of the company. The originality and main contributions of this work lie in the construction and design of the proposed model, particularly the application of both the Confirmatory Tetrad Analysis and the Global Goodness-of-Fit measures adapted for the scope of PLS-SEM, both aiming to elaborate on its use and to provide a model that could be used by other researchers in different regions. By implementing this type of analysis, it is possible to better understand the drivers that push the choice of enterprises concerning the demand for technological services and, subsequently, policymakers, academy, and R&D agencies, as well as corporations leading to better strategies for closer and stronger cooperation and collaboration among themselves.
本研究的目的是寻找决定公司对技术服务需求的因素,并通过这样做,促进在研究、开发和创新活动领域建立更紧密的大学-公司伙伴关系。基于PLS-SEM方法,建立了一个解释-预测模型,该模型得出了四个最具影响力的变量:环境的影响,市场条件,技术采用决策和公司的经济特征。这项工作的独创性和主要贡献在于所提出的模型的构建和设计,特别是对验证性四分体分析和适用于PLS-SEM范围的全球拟合优度测量的应用,两者都旨在详细说明其使用并提供一个可供不同地区的其他研究人员使用的模型。通过实施这种类型的分析,可以更好地理解推动企业对技术服务需求做出选择的驱动因素,进而推动政策制定者、学术界和研发机构以及企业制定更好的战略,以实现更紧密、更有力的合作与协作。
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引用次数: 1
OIL PRICE SHOCKS, ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY, AND GREEN FINANCE: A CASE OF CHINA 油价冲击、经济政策不确定性与绿色金融:以中国为例
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2022.17999
Kai-Hua Wang, Chiwei Su, Muhammad Umar, O. Lobonț
This study investigates the long- and short-run effects of crude oil price (COP) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on China’s green bond index (GBI) using the quantile autoregressive distributed lag model. The empirical results show that COP and EPU produce a significant positive and negative influence on GBI in the long-run across most quantiles, respectively, but their short-run counterparts are opposite direction and only significant in higher quantiles. Thus, major contributions are made accordingly and shown in the following aspects. The findings emphasise the importance of understanding how COP and EPU affect China’s green bond market for the first time. In addition, both the long- and short-run effects are captured, but long-run shocks primarily drive the green bond market. Finally, time- and quantile-varying analyses are adopted to explain the nexus between COP and EPU to GBI, which considers not only different states of the bond market but also events that occur in different time periods. Some detailed policies, such as a unified and effective green bond market, an early warning mechanism of oil price fluctuation, and prudent economic policy adjustments, are beneficial for stabilising the green finance market.
本文采用分位数自回归分布滞后模型,研究原油价格(COP)和经济政策不确定性(EPU)对中国绿色债券指数(GBI)的长期和短期影响。实证结果表明,在大多数分位数中,COP和EPU分别对GBI产生了显著的长期正影响和负影响,但它们的短期影响方向相反,仅在高分位数中显著。因此,主要的贡献体现在以下几个方面。研究结果首次强调了理解COP和EPU如何影响中国绿色债券市场的重要性。此外,长期和短期影响都被捕获,但长期冲击主要推动绿色债券市场。最后,采用时变和分位数分析来解释COP和EPU与GBI之间的关系,该分析不仅考虑了债券市场的不同状态,而且考虑了不同时期发生的事件。一些具体的政策,如统一有效的绿色债券市场、油价波动预警机制、审慎的经济政策调整等,有利于稳定绿色金融市场。
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引用次数: 9
CAN GOLD HEDGE THE RISK OF FEAR SENTIMENTS? 黄金能对冲恐惧情绪的风险吗?
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-16 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2022.17302
Chiwei Su, Yiru Liu, T. Chang, Muhammad Umar
This paper investigates the interaction between fear sentiments and gold price (GP) by utilising the full-sample and sub-sample rolling-window bootstrap causality tests. It can be observed that GP can hedge the risk of fear sentiments in a certain period. The result supports the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model, which demonstrates that the increase in fear sentiments can promote the rise in gold prices. Due to excessive panic, fear sentiments also have negative effects on GP. In contrast, GP positively impacts fear sentiments, which manifests that market sentiment can be forecasted based on changes in the gold market. In addition, the negative influences from GP to fear sentiments indicate there are diversified assets that can be alternatives to gold. In the complicated international environment and volatile market sentiments, investors can benefit by optimising their asset portfolio. The governments can mitigate the adverse effects of large fluctuations in both markets by grasping the movement of gold and fear sentiments.
本文利用全样本和子样本滚动窗自举因果检验,研究了恐惧情绪与黄金价格之间的相互作用。可以看出,GP在一定时期内可以对冲恐惧情绪的风险。研究结果支持跨期资本资产定价模型,表明恐惧情绪的增加可以促进黄金价格的上涨。由于过度恐慌,恐惧情绪也会对GP产生负面影响。相比之下,GP对恐惧情绪的影响是正向的,这表明市场情绪可以通过黄金市场的变化来预测。此外,GP对恐惧情绪的负面影响表明,有多种资产可以替代黄金。在复杂的国际环境和波动的市场情绪下,投资者可以通过优化资产组合来获利。政府可以通过把握黄金的走势和恐惧情绪来减轻这两个市场大幅波动的不利影响。
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引用次数: 4
FROM CREDIT SCORING TO REGULATORY SCORING: COMPARING CREDIT SCORING MODELS FROM A REGULATORY PERSPECTIVE 从信用评分到监管评分:从监管角度比较信用评分模型
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2022.17045
Yufei Xia, Zijun Liao, Jun Xu, Yinguo Li
Conventional credit scoring models evaluated by predictive accuracy or profitability typically serve the financial institutions and can hardly reflect their contribution on financial stability. To remedy this, we develop a novel regulatory scoring framework to quantify and compare the corresponding regulatory capital charge errors of credit scoring models. As an application of RegTech, the proposed framework considers the characteristic of example-dependence and costsensitivity in credit scoring, which is expected to enhance the ability of risk absorption of financial institutions and thus benefit the regulators. Validated on two real-world credit datasets, empirical results reveal that credit scoring models with good predictive accuracy or profitability do not necessarily provide low capital charge requirement error, which further highlights the importance of regulatory scoring framework. The family of gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) provides significantly better average performance than industry benchmarks and deep multilayer perceptron network, especially when financial stability is the primary focus. To further examine the robustness of the proposed regulatory scoring, sampling techniques, cut-off value modification, and probability calibration are employed within the framework and the main conclusions hold in most cases. Furthermore, the analysis on the interpretability via TreeSHAP algorithm alleviates the concerns on transparency of GBDT-based models, and confirms the important roles of loan characteristics, borrowers’ solvency and creditworthiness as powerful predictors in credit scoring. Finally, the managerial implications for both financial institutions and regulators are discussed.
传统的信用评分模型通常以预测准确性或盈利能力来评估,服务于金融机构,难以反映其对金融稳定的贡献。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了一个新的监管评分框架来量化和比较信用评分模型的相应监管资本支出误差。作为RegTech的一种应用,该框架考虑了信用评分的样本依赖和成本敏感的特点,有望提高金融机构的风险吸收能力,从而使监管机构受益。在两个真实信用数据集上验证的实证结果表明,具有良好预测精度或盈利能力的信用评分模型并不一定提供低的资本充足率要求误差,这进一步凸显了监管评分框架的重要性。梯度增强决策树(GBDT)家族提供了比行业基准和深度多层感知器网络更好的平均性能,特别是当金融稳定性是主要关注点时。为了进一步检验所提出的监管评分的稳健性,在框架内采用了抽样技术、截止值修正和概率校准,在大多数情况下,主要结论成立。此外,通过TreeSHAP算法对可解释性的分析,缓解了基于gbdt的模型对透明度的担忧,并证实了贷款特征、借款人的偿债能力和信誉在信用评分中的重要预测作用。最后,讨论了对金融机构和监管机构的管理影响。
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引用次数: 0
A ROBUST OPTIMIZATION MODEL WITH TWO UNCERTAINTIES APPLIED TO SUPPLIER SELECTION 将具有两个不确定因素的鲁棒优化模型应用于供应商选择
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2022.17850
Z. Che, T. Chiang, Chung-Chi Tsai
Under intense industry competition, decision makers must ensure that products demanded by consumers can be quickly produced with minimum production cost. However, because uncertainties are unavoidable and inevitably affect decision makers, numerous studies have discussed how to control uncertainties or minimize their effects. Multiple uncertainties that interact simultaneously may cause a combined effect in actual systems. Therefore, this study presents a robust optimization model with two uncertainties, extending the method of robust optimization with one uncertainty. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model with two uncertainties, this study uses the supplier selection problem with component purchase quantity allocation in supply chain management as an analysis case. This considers the reliability of production and transportation and develops a multi-objective robust optimization model with two uncertainties. In addition, a nondominated sorting genetic algorithm is proposed for solving the proposed multi-objective robust optimization model. The relationship between price of robustness and budget parameters is explored by considering the robust optimization model with production and transportation uncertainties proposed in this study. Finally, there is a comparative analysis between the results for price of robustness in the proposed two-uncertainty model and in the one-uncertainty model.
在激烈的行业竞争中,决策者必须保证以最小的生产成本快速生产出消费者需要的产品。然而,由于不确定性是不可避免的,并且不可避免地影响决策者,因此许多研究讨论了如何控制不确定性或将其影响最小化。在实际系统中,同时相互作用的多个不确定性可能导致综合效应。因此,本文提出了一种双不确定性鲁棒优化模型,扩展了单不确定性鲁棒优化方法。为了证明该模型在两个不确定因素下的适用性,本研究以供应链管理中包含零部件采购数量分配的供应商选择问题为分析案例。考虑了生产和运输的可靠性,建立了具有两个不确定因素的多目标鲁棒优化模型。此外,针对所提出的多目标鲁棒优化模型,提出了一种非支配排序遗传算法。考虑考虑生产和运输不确定性的鲁棒优化模型,探讨了鲁棒性价格与预算参数之间的关系。最后,对两不确定性模型和单不确定性模型的稳健性价格结果进行了比较分析。
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引用次数: 0
THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON GREEN INNOVATION: GLOBAL EVIDENCE 货币政策对绿色创新的影响:全球证据
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2022.17020
H. Yin, Chun-ping Chang, Haijie Wang
This research investigates and robustly verifies the impact of expansionary monetary policy actions on green innovation, conducted on a panel covering 133 countries from 1960 to 2018. Overall, we find that such actions have a significantly positive effect on green innovation performance, no matter in the static or dynamic model. A lower degree of central bank independence and poorer property rights protection in developing countries may hinder monetary policies’ effect to be transmitted to green innovation activities smoothly. Moreover, stringent environmental regulation contributes to magnifying the expansionary monetary policy’s positive effect on green innovation, but such a positive moderating effect should be supported by good national governance quality (including better control over corruption, higher efficiency of governments and a complete law system). Accordingly, several policy suggestions are provided.
本研究调查并有力验证了扩张性货币政策行动对绿色创新的影响,该研究在1960年至2018年覆盖133个国家的小组中进行。总体而言,我们发现无论是在静态模型还是动态模型中,这些行为对绿色创新绩效都有显著的正向影响。发展中国家的中央银行独立性较低,产权保护较差,这可能会阻碍货币政策的效果顺利传导到绿色创新活动中。此外,严格的环境监管有助于放大扩张性货币政策对绿色创新的积极作用,但这种积极的调节作用需要良好的国家治理质量(包括更好的腐败控制、更高的政府效率和完善的法律体系)的支持。据此,提出了若干政策建议。
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引用次数: 47
POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN DEVELOPING AND UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES. DO FOREIGN CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM MATTER? 发展中国家和欠发达国家的扶贫工作。外资和经济自由重要吗?
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2022.17691
Q. Han, Li Jin, M. A. S. Khan, Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey, Bojan Obrenovic
Our study focuses on the role of foreign capital which includes foreign direct investment, foreign aid, and economic freedom in poverty alleviation in developing and underdeveloped countries by using panel data from 1995 to 2018 for 71 countries. In the pursuit of achieving our objective, we employed several econometric techniques such as dynamic ordinary least square, fully modified ordinary least square, dynamic fixed effect, and pooled mean group regression methods. Furthermore, we performed the Granger causality test, impulse response function, and variance decomposition analysis. In our long-run estimations, we found that foreign direct investment could significantly alleviate poverty but increases poverty in the short run. Instead, foreign aid plays no significant role in poverty alleviation. Moreover, economic growth and economic freedom are essential as our findings consistently exhibited that they play a crucial role in poverty alleviation. We also found bidirectional causality between poverty alleviation and population growth, while a unidirectional causal linkage was found from poverty alleviation to foreign aid. We conclude that policymakers should look at a new paradigm of developmental assistance, and governments should also create an aiding environment for foreign investment to support their growth plan.
本文利用1995 - 2018年71个国家的面板数据,重点研究了外资(包括外国直接投资、外援和经济自由)在发展中国家和欠发达国家减贫中的作用。为了实现我们的目标,我们采用了几种计量经济学技术,如动态普通最小二乘、完全修正普通最小二乘、动态固定效应和混合平均组回归方法。进一步,我们进行格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析。在我们的长期估计中,我们发现外国直接投资可以显著减轻贫困,但在短期内会增加贫困。相反,外援在减轻贫困方面没有发挥重大作用。此外,经济增长和经济自由是必不可少的,因为我们的研究结果一贯表明,它们在减轻贫困方面发挥着至关重要的作用。扶贫与人口增长之间存在双向因果关系,而扶贫与外援之间存在单向因果关系。我们的结论是,政策制定者应该着眼于发展援助的新模式,政府也应该为外国投资创造一个援助环境,以支持其增长计划。
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引用次数: 0
THE ROLE OF DOUBLE-LOOP LEARNING IN MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAINS. THE STUDY OF THE DISRUPTIONS DRIVEN BY COVID-19 IN POLAND 双环学习在制造业供应链中的作用。对波兰COVID-19造成的破坏的研究
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2022.17799
M. Frankowska, Artur Świerczek, Katarzyna Cheba
A global pandemic of coronavirus COVID-19 affects the manufacturing supply chains significantly. This study aims to identify and evaluate the reaction of manufacturing supply chains in using the concept of double-loop learning to mitigate the disruptions induced by COVID-19 at the early stage of pandemic. A two-stage research process has been developed that firstly involves determining the learning pattern of enterprises in industrial supply chains and identifying actions taken. Then, the relationship between taking actions in the field of double-loop learning in the manufacturing supply chains and expecting a change in their market situation, and having knowledge in the field of adaptation to changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was examined. The study shows that there is a high level of caution in taking proactive measures in supply chains and a lack of knowledge in the field of adapting industrial supply chains to sudden disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
冠状病毒COVID-19全球大流行对制造业供应链产生了重大影响。本研究旨在利用双环学习的概念,识别和评估制造业供应链的反应,以减轻COVID-19在大流行早期引起的中断。研究过程分为两个阶段,首先确定工业供应链中企业的学习模式并确定所采取的行动。然后,在制造业供应链的双环学习领域采取行动并预期其市场情况的变化,与在适应COVID-19大流行引起的变化领域拥有知识之间的关系进行了检验。研究表明,在供应链方面采取积极措施的态度高度谨慎,在产业供应链适应新冠肺炎疫情突然中断方面缺乏知识。
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引用次数: 0
INVESTIGATING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION: EVIDENCE FROM EU15 COUNTRIES 调查经济增长与环境退化之间的关系:来自欧盟15国的证据
IF 5.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.3846/tede.2022.17874
M. Hatmanu, Cristina Căutișanu
The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis has become a centre of interest for empirical research, as it serves to identify the relationships between economic growth and environmental degradation that will lead to a sustainable development path. The aim of the paper is to investigate these relationships for each of the EU15 countries, which are responsible for the largest amount of carbon dioxide emissions in Europe. Based on the results of the analysis of ARDL bounds cointegration approach, for the 1960–2019 period, it was found that there is a great diversity between the countries in the EU15 regarding the existence and shape of EKC, from the identification of N shape, Inverted U-shape or monotonic relationships to the absence of statistically significant relationships. Thus, there are countries that have managed to implement environmental protection measures early and now ensure GDP growth while significantly reducing CO2 emissions. The similarities and differences identified among EU15 countries can serve as a guide for EU policymakers in developing recommendations adapted to specific situations in order to facilitate economic growth taking into consideration environmental protection.
环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说已成为实证研究的兴趣中心,因为它有助于确定经济增长与环境退化之间的关系,从而导致可持续发展道路。本文的目的是调查欧盟15个国家的这些关系,这些国家是欧洲二氧化碳排放量最大的国家。根据ARDL界协整方法的分析结果,在1960-2019年期间,我们发现EU15国家之间对于EKC的存在和形态存在很大的差异,从确定N形、倒u形或单调关系到没有统计显著的关系。因此,有些国家很早就设法实施了环境保护措施,现在在确保GDP增长的同时显著减少了二氧化碳排放。欧盟15国之间确定的异同可以作为欧盟决策者制定适合具体情况的建议的指南,以便在考虑环境保护的情况下促进经济增长。
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引用次数: 0
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Technological and Economic Development of Economy
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