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When the Rain Stops Falling. Effects of Droughts on the Tunisian Labour Market 雨停之时:干旱对突尼斯劳动力市场的影响干旱对突尼斯劳动力市场的影响
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejae010
Federica Alfani, Giacomo Pallante, Alessandro Palma, Abdelkader Talhaoui
We investigate the effects of severe drought shocks in Tunisia’s agricultural sector during the period 2000-2019. Using labour force surveys aligned with granular weather data, we calculate Standardized Potential Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to detect moderate-to-severe drought shocks occurred at the governorate level and frame the analysis in a staggered difference-in-differences setting with repeated negative events. We find that shocked areas experience a maximum of 7.4 to 10.6 percentage point drop in agricultural employment compared to the untreated or not-yet-treated governorates. We observe a contemporaneous opposite dynamic in the employment rate of low-skill and less climate-sensitive sectors, as well as a modest and transient increase in unemployment. The effects are largely heterogeneous across workers' groups, with women, young individuals and low-educated workers paying the highest toll. Urban non-agricultural workers are temporarily crowded out from the labour market due to the increase in the informal labour supply.
我们调查了 2000-2019 年期间严重干旱冲击对突尼斯农业部门的影响。我们利用劳动力调查和粒度气象数据,计算标准化潜在蒸散指数(SPEI),以检测省一级发生的中度至严重干旱冲击,并在重复负面事件的交错差分设置中进行分析。我们发现,与未受影响或尚未受影响的省份相比,受影响地区的农业就业率最高下降了 7.4 至 10.6 个百分点。我们观察到,低技能和气候敏感性较低行业的就业率出现了同期相反的动态变化,失业率也出现了短暂的小幅上升。对不同工人群体的影响大不相同,妇女、年轻人和低学历工人受到的影响最大。由于非正规劳动力供应增加,城市非农业工人暂时被挤出劳动力市场。
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引用次数: 0
Ethnicity, Women's Empowerment and Decisions about Children's Education in Ghana 加纳的种族、妇女赋权与儿童教育决策
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejae009
Ralitza Dimova, David Fielding
There is evidence from some low-income countries that women's empowerment is associated with better child health and education outcomes, suggesting that mothers value these outcomes more than fathers do, on average. We hypothesise that this difference will be smaller in matrilineal societies, and using a Ghanaian household survey that includes data on children's education, we find evidence consistent with this distinction between matrilineal and patrilineal cultures. Women's empowerment is higher, on average, in matrilineal households, but this does not explain why their mean educational expenditure is higher, because empowerment in matrilineal households has no significant effect on expenditure. One possible explanation for these findings is cross-cultural heterogeneity in parental preferences: in the matrilineal society, women are more empowered, on average, and more money is spent on children's education, but the first difference is not the cause of the second.
一些低收入国家的证据表明,妇女赋权与更好的儿童健康和教育成果相关,这表明平均而言,母亲比父亲更重视这些成果。我们的假设是,在母系社会中,这种差异会更小。我们利用加纳的一项家庭调查(其中包括有关儿童教育的数据),发现了与母系和父系文化差异相一致的证据。平均而言,母系家庭中妇女的赋权程度较高,但这并不能解释为什么她们的平均教育支出较高,因为母系家庭中的赋权对支出没有显著影响。这些发现的一个可能解释是父母偏好的跨文化异质性:在母系社会中,妇女平均赋权更高,子女教育支出也更多,但第一个差异并不是第二个差异的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Reducing Wait Times at Customs to Boost Trade: How Implementing the Trade Facilitation Agreement Can Expand Trade among AfCFTA Countries? 减少海关等待时间以促进贸易:执行《贸易便利化协定》如何扩大非洲自由贸易区国家之间的贸易?
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-12 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejae008
Jaime de Melo, Zakaria Sorgho, Laurent Wagner
All WTO members participate in the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), a rules-based bottom-up approach built on monitorable provisions (e.g., the publication of information, advance rulings, appeal or review of decisions, transparency and border agency cooperation) aimed at reducing time in customs. The paper draws on the OECD indicators of the state of implementation of provisions in the TFA summarised in a TFI (Trade Facilitation Index) to estimate the reduction in waiting time at customs for a large sample of 160 countries. Implementing the TFA could be a significant complement to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)'s objectives. The paper's estimates suggest that a realistic implementation of TFA measures could reduce time in customs for imports by 3.7 days and by 1.9 days for exports. Using extraneous estimates from customs-level transactions, this translates to a reduction tariff Ad-Valorem Equivalent (AVE) in the range 3.5%–7% for imports and 8% extra growth for exports. The large differences in interests across AfCFTA participants—landlocked-coastal, resource-rich and resource-poor, large-small—suggest large gains from reducing tariffs on intra-African trade. However, tariff reductions face the zero-sum hurdle of negotiations involving rent transfers across and within countries. By avoiding rent-transfer issues, this paper suggests that taking seriously the TFA provisions would be a powerful complement to the AfCFTA's tariff-reduction agenda.
所有世贸组织成员都参加了《贸易便利化协定》(TFA),这是一种基于规则的自下而上的方法,建立在可监测条款(如信息公布、预先裁定、对决定的上诉或审查、透明度和边境机构合作)的基础上,旨在缩短海关时间。本文借鉴了经合组织(OECD)在贸易便利化指数(TFI)中总结的《贸易协定》条款实施状况指标,对 160 个国家的大量样本进行了估算,以减少在海关的等待时间。实施《全面贸易协议》是对非洲大陆自由贸易区(AfCFTA)目标的重要补充。本文的估算表明,切实执行《贸易协定》措施可使进口品在海关的等待时间减少 3.7 天,出口品减少 1.9 天。利用海关层面交易的外在估算,这意味着进口商品的从价等值关税(AVE)降低幅度为 3.5%-7%,出口商品的额外增长率为 8%。非洲自由贸易区参与者之间的利益差异很大--内陆-沿海、资源丰富-资源贫乏、规模大-规模小--这表明降低非洲内部贸易的关税会带来巨大收益。然而,降低关税面临着涉及国家间和国家内租金转移的零和谈判障碍。本文认为,通过避免租金转移问题,认真对待《全面贸易协议》的条款将是对非洲自由贸易区关税削减议程的有力补充。
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引用次数: 0
Internal Conflicts and the Moderating Role of Property Rights in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Property Taxation 撒哈拉以南非洲的内部冲突和财产权的调节作用:对财产税的影响
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejae007
Tiemele Aristide Affroumou, Isaac Amedanou
We investigate the implications of internal conflicts for property tax revenues and highlight the moderating role of property rights in Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1996 to 2019. Estimates based on fixed-effects regressions indicate that internal conflicts reduce property tax revenues, and property rights play a moderating role in the influence of internal conflicts on property tax revenues. Specifically, when property rights are clearly defined, the effect of internal conflicts is quantitatively weaker compared to situations where property rights are ambiguous or poorly enforced. Moreover, in addition to the positive impact of protecting property rights on property tax revenues, the estimates also provide evidence of government effectiveness, further reinforcing the interconnected relationship among internal stability, property rights protection and property tax revenues. Finally, among other factors tested, some, such as the level of development, the share of natural resources and the urban population, are also relevant in determining property tax revenues.
我们研究了 1996 年至 2019 年期间撒哈拉以南非洲国家内部冲突对财产税收入的影响,并强调了财产权的调节作用。基于固定效应回归的估计结果表明,内部冲突会减少财产税收入,而产权在内部冲突对财产税收入的影响中起着调节作用。具体而言,与产权模糊或执行不力的情况相比,产权界定清晰的情况下,内部冲突的影响在数量上要弱一些。此外,除了保护产权对财产税收入的积极影响外,估算结果还提供了政府有效性的证据,进一步加强了内部稳定、产权保护和财产税收入之间的相互关系。最后,在测试的其他因素中,有些因素,如发展水平、自然资源份额和城市人口,也与财产税收入的决定相关。
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引用次数: 0
The Socio-Economic Impact of Coal Mining in Mozambique 莫桑比克煤炭开采的社会经济影响
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejae006
Eva-Maria Egger, Michael Keller, Jorge Benjamim Mouco
This study assesses the impact of four coal mines in Mozambique on socio-economic outcomes of the local population. We combine four waves of household surveys with coal mine locations and employ a difference-in-differences model. The timing of the surveys allows us to control for pre-trends and differentiate between the effects during the investment and production periods. The mines led to a causal increase in consumption and a correlational decline in poverty. The mine introduced higher-paying jobs, often obtained by women, which shifted them from agriculture and unpaid work to the mining, service sectors and wage work. This shift impacted family labour dynamics, in particular young males and to a lesser extent young females worked less. The decrease in child labour reduced overall employment. Access to basic services, such as drinking water, electricity and health services, improved. Primary education completion rates increased, while children's schooling was unaffected. Negative consequences were found related to the incidence of sickness and a decline in market access.
本研究评估了莫桑比克四个煤矿对当地人口社会经济成果的影响。我们将四次家庭调查与煤矿位置相结合,并采用了差分模型。调查的时间安排使我们能够控制前期趋势,并区分投资期和生产期的影响。煤矿导致了消费的增加和贫困的减少。矿山引入了高薪工作,通常由妇女获得,这使她们从农业和无偿工作转向矿业、服务业和有薪工作。这种转变影响了家庭的劳动力动态,尤其是年轻男性的工作减少了,其次是年轻女性。童工的减少降低了总体就业率。获得饮用水、电力和医疗服务等基本服务的情况有所改善。初等教育的完成率有所提高,而儿童的入学率未受影响。疾病发生率和市场准入下降带来了负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Shocks and Stability of Risk and Time Preferences among Poor Rural Households in Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚农村贫困家庭风险和时间偏好的冲击与稳定性
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejae005
T. Meles, M. H. Abay, Guush Berhane, A. Taffesse
This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.
本文研究了在一个以干旱频发、长期粮食不安全和教育水平低为特点的发展中国家,冲击对农村家庭风险和时间偏好的时间稳定性的影响。我们利用埃塞俄比亚 5,600 多个抽样农村家庭中 6,500 多人每两年一次的偏好调查数据,分析了干旱(自我报告)和降雨量不足对家庭风险和时间偏好的影响。我们的研究结果表明,家庭在经历干旱和降雨冲击后会变得更加规避风险和缺乏耐心;风险偏好的变化在同期经历反复干旱和多重协变量冲击的家庭中更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Rural Underemployment and Urbanisation: Insights from a 9-year Panel from Malawi 农村就业不足与城市化:马拉维九年小组调查的启示
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-29 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejae004
Hanne Van Cappellen, Joachim De Weerdt
Rural labour markets in Africa are frequently characterised by underemployment, with farmers unable to fully deploy throughout the year one of their most important assets—their labour. Using a nine-year panel data set on 1,407 working-age adults from rural Malawi, we document changes in rural underemployment over this period and how they are associated with urbanisation. Nearby urban growth is linked to increased hours worked in casual labour (ganyu) and in non-agricultural sectors, at the expense of work on the household farm. Improved urban access is also associated with a small increase in wage labour and, at the intensive margin, with hours supplied in household enterprises. We draw lessons from these results for policies, investments and interventions to leverage urban growth for rural development.
非洲的农村劳动力市场经常出现就业不足的现象,农民无法全年充分使用他们最重要的资产之一--劳动力。我们利用马拉维农村地区 1407 名劳动适龄成年人的九年面板数据,记录了这一时期农村就业不足的变化,以及这些变化与城市化之间的关联。城市附近的增长与临时工(ganyu)和非农业部门工作时间的增加有关,而家庭农场的工作时间则以牺牲为代价。城市交通的改善也与雇佣劳动的小幅增加有关,在密集边际,还与家庭企业的工作时间增加有关。我们从这些结果中汲取了政策、投资和干预方面的经验教训,以利用城市增长促进农村发展。
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引用次数: 0
The Effects of Antenatal Care Utilisation on Birthweight: Evidence from Ghana 产前护理对出生体重的影响:来自加纳的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejae003
Alex Bawuah, Simon Appleton, Yang Li, Lina Song
In 2015, about 20.5 million babies were born with low birthweight (LBW), with the majority from low- and middle-income countries. The use of antenatal care (ANC) is a recommended health policy measure to reduce the risk of LBW. However, there is limited evidence for its effectiveness in reducing LBW in sub-Saharan Africa, although the region accounts for almost one-quarter of LBW babies, second only to Asia. Moreover, while the number of LBW in other regions is reducing, the number of LBW babies in sub-Saharan Africa is increasing. We therefore use data from Ghana (a sub-Saharan African country with a high incidence rate of LBW) to investigate the effect of using ANC on birthweight. The number of ANC visits and the month of ANC initiation were used as indicators for ANC utilisation. We applied an extended linear regression technique to deal with the potential sample selection bias and endogeneity associated with the use of ANC. The results from the study indicate that early ANC initiation and having more ANC visits are both associated with an increase in birthweight; however, the estimated effect of an early ANC visit is larger than having an additional visit. Therefore, we recommend that policies aimed at tackling the problem of LBW should mostly be geared towards promoting ANC utilisation, especially early ANC initiation. We also find that estimating the effect of ANC on birthweight without accounting for sample selection bias and endogeneity of ANC underestimates the effect of ANC on birthweight.
2015 年,约有 2050 万婴儿出生时体重偏低,其中大多数来自中低收入国家。使用产前保健(ANC)是降低低出生体重儿风险的一项推荐卫生政策措施。然而,在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,尽管该地区的低体重儿占低体重儿总数的近四分之一,仅次于亚洲,但有关该措施对减少低体重儿的有效性的证据却很有限。此外,虽然其他地区的低体重儿人数在减少,但撒哈拉以南非洲地区的低体重儿人数却在增加。因此,我们利用加纳(撒哈拉以南非洲地区低体重儿发病率较高的国家)的数据来研究使用产前保健对出生体重的影响。我们将产前检查次数和开始产前检查的月份作为产前检查利用率的指标。我们采用了扩展线性回归技术来处理潜在的样本选择偏差和与使用产前护理相关的内生性问题。研究结果表明,尽早开始产前保健和进行更多的产前保健访问都与出生体重的增加有关;但是,尽早进行产前保健访问的估计效果要大于进行额外访问的估计效果。因此,我们建议,旨在解决低出生体重问题的政策应主要着眼于提高产前护理的利用率,尤其是尽早开始产前护理。我们还发现,在不考虑样本选择偏差和 ANC 内生性的情况下,估计 ANC 对出生体重的影响会低估 ANC 对出生体重的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Digital Labour Platforms as Shock Absorbers: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mozambique 数字劳动平台作为冲击吸收器:莫桑比克 COVID-19 大流行的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-02 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejae002
Sam Jones, Ivan Manhique
Digital labour platforms have grown five-fold over the past decade, enabling significant expansion of gig work worldwide. We interrogate the critique that these platforms tend to amplify aggregate shocks for registered workers. Based on the universe of records from a matching platform for manual freelancers in Mozambique, we analyse how task supply and demand altered with the onset of COVID-19. Treating the pandemic as a structural break, which extends to an event study analysis, we find it was associated with a net increase in tasks demanded per worker, but no clear change in supply growth (new registrations). While these general trends are evident across multiple market segments, there is also evidence of relatively higher demand for female as compared to male workers during the pandemic. This suggests digital labour markets can help some workers adjust to economic shocks in low-income contexts.
过去十年间,数字劳动平台增长了五倍,使全球范围内的 "零工 "现象显著增加。我们对这些平台往往会放大注册工人的总体冲击这一评论进行了探讨。基于莫桑比克手工自由职业者匹配平台的全部记录,我们分析了任务供求如何随着 COVID-19 的爆发而发生变化。我们将大流行病视为结构性中断,进而进行事件研究分析,发现它与每个工人的任务需求净增加有关,但供应增长(新注册人数)没有明显变化。虽然这些总体趋势在多个细分市场中都很明显,但也有证据表明,在大流行期间,对女工的需求相对高于男工。这表明,数字劳动力市场可以帮助一些工人适应低收入环境下的经济冲击。
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引用次数: 0
Moral Hazard Incentives under Formal Insurance and Informal Insurance: Evidence from a Framed Field Experiment 正规保险和非正规保险下的道德风险激励:来自现场试验框架的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-17 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejae001
Aisha Nanyiti, Haki Pamuk
This paper explores moral hazard incentives associated with formal and informal insurance. We develop a theoretical model of risky effort that incorporates formal insurance and informal risk sharing, and test model predictions through a real-effort experiment with smallholder farmers in rural Uganda. Consistent with the theory, we find evidence of moral hazard under informal insurance. We, however, do not find evidence of moral hazard under formal insurance in our experiment. Experiencing a bad outcome, however, makes the risk in production more salient to farmers, and they increase their insurance coverage. These results suggest there may be some space for expanding indemnity-based insurance to smallholder farmers through awareness programmes.
本文探讨了与正规和非正规保险相关的道德风险激励机制。我们建立了一个包含正规保险和非正规风险分担的风险努力理论模型,并通过对乌干达农村小农的实际努力实验对模型预测进行了检验。与理论相符,我们发现了非正规保险下道德风险的证据。然而,我们在实验中没有发现正规保险下存在道德风险的证据。然而,经历过糟糕的结果会使农民更加关注生产中的风险,从而增加他们的保险额度。这些结果表明,通过宣传计划将基于赔偿的保险扩大到小农可能还有一定的空间。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of African Economies
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