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The Well-being Effects of an Old-Age Pension: Experimental Evidence for Ekiti State in Nigeria 养老金的福利效应:尼日利亚埃基蒂州的实验证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad012
Maria Laura Alzúa, Natalia Cantet, A. Dammert, D. Olajide
Many countries in the developing world have implemented old-age pensions. Evidence of the impact of such policies on the elderly in sub-Saharan Africa, however, is scarce. We provide evidence from a randomised evaluation of an unconditional old-age pension targeted at the elderly in Ekiti State, Nigeria. Our findings show that treated beneficiaries self-report better quality of life and a more stable mental health. We also provide evidence of spillover effects on the labor outcomes of other household members and of household savings patterns as well as support for interventions aimed at improving the welfare of elderly poor citizens and other household members.
发展中国家的许多国家都实行了养老金制度。然而,很少有证据表明这些政策对撒哈拉以南非洲的老年人产生了影响。我们提供了尼日利亚埃基提州针对老年人的无条件养老金的随机评估证据。我们的研究结果表明,接受治疗的受益人自我报告了更好的生活质量和更稳定的心理健康。我们还提供了对其他家庭成员的劳动成果和家庭储蓄模式的溢出效应的证据,以及对旨在改善老年贫困公民和其他家庭成员福利的干预措施的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Earning Structure and Heterogeneity of the Labor Market: Evidence from DR Congo 收入结构与劳动力市场的异质性:来自刚果民主共和国的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-08 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad014
Douglas Amuli Ibale
Using 1.2.3 survey data on the Democratic Republic of Congo, we highlight different sectors in the labor market, with ‘higher paid’ sectors that are largely formal and ‘lower paid’ sectors that are largely informal. Based on a linear regression model, we report significant heterogeneity in earnings across sectors, which remain after controlling for aspects of human capital. We use a multinomial logit model to identify sector choice and show, allowing for selection, how returns to human capital differ across these sectors. We find that returns to basic education are important in largely informal sectors and that tertiary education is very important to access the higher paid sectors, but less important than in the lower paid sectors in increasing earnings once there. We then extend this analysis using quantile regression to show how returns differ across the distribution within sectors. Finally, we decompose the earnings gap across sectors and check how characteristics and return on these characteristics affect the cross-sector earnings gap. The earnings gap decomposition shows that workers of the lower paid sectors earn less, not only because they are less skill-endowed but also because they earn lower returns on their skills.
利用1.2.3对刚果民主共和国的调查数据,我们强调了劳动力市场的不同部门,其中“高薪”部门主要是正规部门,“低薪”部门大部分是非正规部门。基于线性回归模型,我们报告了各部门收入的显著异质性,在控制了人力资本的各个方面后,这种异质性仍然存在。我们使用多项式logit模型来确定行业选择,并在允许选择的情况下,显示这些行业的人力资本回报率如何不同。我们发现,基础教育的回报在主要是非正规部门很重要,高等教育对进入高薪部门非常重要,但在增加收入方面不如低薪部门重要。然后,我们使用分位数回归来扩展这一分析,以显示各行业内回报率在分布上的差异。最后,我们分解了跨部门的收益差距,并检验了这些特征和回报率如何影响跨部门的收入差距。收入差距分解表明,低收入部门的工人收入较低,这不仅是因为他们的技能禀赋较低,还因为他们的技术回报率较低。
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引用次数: 0
Rainfall Shocks, Livelihood Diversification and Welfare: Evidence from Rural Togo 降雨冲击、生计多样化和福利:来自多哥农村的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-12 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad011
A. Weyori, Sabine Liebenehm
Theory suggests that rural farm households exposed to greater risk should diversify their income portfolios to reduce variation in welfare caused by adverse events such as rainfall shocks. Rainfall shocks, however, can also degrade asset stocks and make diversification more costly. Using a panel dataset of small-scale cattle farmers from rural Togo and long-term historical rainfall data, we first examine whether and in what direction rural portfolio diversification is related to historical rainfall shocks. Second, we test whether diversification is associated with stabilised welfare in the face of recent rainfall shocks. Our results show that historical rainfall shock exposure reduces income diversification. In terms of mitigation, we find that diversification is generally not effective in insulating against welfare losses. We conclude that there is a need to stimulate rural diversification as a means of building resilient livelihoods to cope with increasing weather variability by strengthening credit, agricultural and market institutions.
理论表明,面临较大风险的农村农户应使其收入组合多样化,以减少降雨冲击等不利事件造成的福利差异。然而,降雨冲击也会降低资产存量,使分散投资的成本更高。利用多哥农村小规模养牛户的面板数据集和长期历史降雨数据,我们首先研究了农村投资组合多样化是否以及在什么方向上与历史降雨冲击相关。其次,我们测试了多元化是否与近期降雨冲击下的稳定福利有关。我们的研究结果表明,历史降雨冲击暴露降低了收入多样化。在缓解方面,我们发现多样化通常不能有效地防止福利损失。我们的结论是,有必要通过加强信贷、农业和市场机构,刺激农村多样化,以此作为建立有抵御能力的生计的手段,以应对日益增加的天气变化。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program on Children's Educational Aspirations and Attainments 埃塞俄比亚生产安全网项目对儿童教育愿望和成就的影响
3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-19 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad009
Aregawi G Gebremariam, Elisabetta Lodigiani, Giacomo Pasini
Abstract The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) was launched by the government of Ethiopia in 2005 to support food-insecure rural households. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of PSNP on children's educational aspirations and actual attainments. We use longitudinal data from the Ethiopian sample of the Young Lives' survey and by means of a differences-in-differences, individual fixed-effects estimator, we find that the program increases both educational aspirations and actual attainment of children. In our preferred specification, the immediate effect (after 3 years) of the program is to increase by 1.05 years of educational aspirations and by about 0.35 years actual education of children. Furthermore, there is evidence that the program has significant effect even in the long run (after 6 years). The results point to broad and long-lasting positive effects on children education of a program designed primarily to relieve chronically poor households from food insecurity.
埃塞俄比亚政府于2005年启动了生产安全网计划(PSNP),以支持粮食不安全的农村家庭。在本文中,我们评估了PSNP对儿童教育愿望和实际成就的影响。我们使用来自埃塞俄比亚青年生活调查样本的纵向数据,并通过差异中的差异,个体固定效应估计器,我们发现该计划增加了儿童的教育愿望和实际成就。在我们的首选规范中,该计划的直接效果(3年后)是增加1.05年的教育愿望和大约0.35年的儿童实际教育。此外,有证据表明,即使从长期来看(6年后),该计划也有显著的效果。研究结果表明,一个主要旨在帮助长期贫困家庭摆脱粮食不安全的项目对儿童教育产生了广泛而持久的积极影响。
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引用次数: 1
Heterogeneous Effects of Women's Schooling on Fertility, Literacy and Work: Evidence from Burundi's Free Primary Education Policy 妇女上学对生育率、识字率和工作的异质性影响:来自布隆迪免费初等教育政策的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-09 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad002
Frederik Wild, D. Stadelmann
This article investigates the effect of women's schooling on fertility as well as on associated mechanisms by leveraging Burundi's free primary education policy (FPE) of 2005 as a natural experiment. Exogenous variation in schooling is identified through a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. Our results show that educational attainment was positively influenced by Burundi's FPE for women situated at all wealth levels. However, the relevant downstream effects of schooling—measured by fertility, literacy and work outcomes—reveal heterogenous treatment effects which are moderated by women's household wealth. While poor women profit in terms of increases in literacy (6.7 percentage-point increase for each year of policy-induced schooling), remunerated employment opportunities (5.7 percentage-point increase), as well as a reduction in desired and actual fertility outcomes (6.9 percentage-point reduction in teenage childbirth), none of these effects of additional education are observed for women from the wealthier households of our sample. The evidence of such a marked heterogeneity contributes to the growing literature examining the nexus between education and fertility in developing countries and helps to evaluate under which conditions the literature's findings may generalize.
本文利用布隆迪2005年的免费初等教育政策作为一项自然实验,调查了妇女上学对生育率以及相关机制的影响。通过模糊回归不连续性设计识别学校教育中的外生变异。我们的研究结果表明,布隆迪对处于各种财富水平的妇女的FPE对教育程度产生了积极影响。然而,以生育率、识字率和工作成果衡量的学校教育的相关下游影响揭示了受女性家庭财富调节的异质性治疗效果。虽然贫困妇女从识字率的提高(政策性学校教育每年增加6.7个百分点)、有报酬的就业机会(增加5.7个百分点)以及预期和实际生育结果的减少(青少年生育减少6.9个百分点)方面获利,在我们的样本中,来自富裕家庭的女性没有观察到额外教育的这些影响。这种显著异质性的证据有助于越来越多的文献研究发展中国家的教育和生育率之间的关系,并有助于评估文献的发现在何种条件下可以推广。
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引用次数: 0
From Food Subsidies to Cash Transfers: Assessing Economy-Wide Benefits and Trade-Offs in Egypt 从粮食补贴到现金转移:评估埃及的经济利益和权衡
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad006
C. Breisinger, Yumna Kassim, Sikandra Kurdi, J. Randriamamonjy, J. Thurlow
Food is a vital part of poor households' budgets and so subsidizing staple foods would appear to be an obvious pro-poor policy. Indeed, most countries in North Africa have prioritized large national subsidy programs for staple foods and fuels as their main social safety net. However, these programs account for significant shares of government spending and often drive fiscal deficits, especially when import prices rise. In this paper we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to evaluate the trade-offs between reducing poverty and managing fiscal balances. The modeling framework allows us to measure the efficiency costs of subsidies compared to cash transfers - switching to the latter is an emerging regional trend. We analyze these issues through a detailed case study of Egypt, where efforts to replace food subsidies with cash transfers is already underway. Data is also available in Egypt to design scenarios that realistically reflect potential targeting effectiveness and administrative costs. We show that replacing broad food subsidies with targeted cash transfers of roughly equivalent fiscal costs can improve the welfare of the poorest households, but the continuation of fiscal deficits results in a deceleration of economic growth. The latter gradually reduces welfare gains for the poor and leads to substantial welfare losses for middle-income households who lose access to subsidies without benefitting from cash transfers. Our findings highlight the political challenges facing subsidy reform programs.
食品是贫困家庭预算的重要组成部分,因此补贴主食似乎是一项明显的扶贫政策。事实上,大多数北非国家都将主要食品和燃料的大规模国家补贴计划作为其主要的社会保障网络。然而,这些项目占政府支出的很大一部分,往往导致财政赤字,特别是在进口价格上涨的情况下。在本文中,我们使用一个动态的可计算一般均衡模型来评估减少贫困和管理财政平衡之间的权衡。建模框架使我们能够衡量与现金转移相比补贴的效率成本——转向现金转移是一种新兴的区域趋势。我们通过对埃及的详细案例研究来分析这些问题,在埃及,用现金转移支付取代粮食补贴的努力已经在进行中。埃及也有数据可用于设计实际反映潜在目标有效性和行政成本的情景。我们的研究表明,用财政成本大致相当的有针对性的现金转移来取代广泛的食品补贴可以改善最贫困家庭的福利,但财政赤字的持续会导致经济增长的减速。后者逐渐减少了穷人的福利收益,并导致中等收入家庭的重大福利损失,这些家庭失去了获得补贴的机会,而无法从现金转移支付中受益。我们的研究结果突出了补贴改革计划面临的政治挑战。
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引用次数: 1
A Crossed Analysis of Participations in Labor and Grain Markets: Evidence from Malawi 劳动力和粮食市场参与的交叉分析:来自马拉维的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad007
Alhassane Camara, L. Savard
This study contributes to the literature on the identification of factors shaping the decision to participate in the grain market in Africa. Unlike previous studies, we introduce labor market participation into the farm household model to highlight heterogeneities in decision making. Empirically, we rely on an extension of Heckman's approach and introduce control functions to mitigate endogeneity issues related to the adoption of agricultural technologies. We find that limited access to transportation infrastructure, by discouraging the supply of grain, constrains households to experience an excess of labor; price incentives may have a reverse effect on the choice of market regimes, even though the effect on production may be positive for households that are already participants. We also show that farmers' responses to grain prices are not sensitive to their labor market position. The use of agricultural technologies encourages cereal production and employment of external agricultural labor. This study thus provides a better targeting when designing policies promoting marketing and rural employment.
本研究有助于确定影响参与非洲粮食市场决策的因素。与以往的研究不同,我们将劳动力市场参与引入农户模型,以突出决策中的异质性。在经验上,我们依赖于Heckman方法的扩展,并引入控制函数来缓解与农业技术采用相关的内生性问题。我们发现,交通基础设施的限制,通过抑制粮食供应,限制了家庭经历劳动力过剩;价格激励可能对市场制度的选择产生相反的影响,尽管对生产的影响可能对已经参与其中的家庭是积极的。我们还表明,农民对粮食价格的反应对他们的劳动力市场地位并不敏感。农业技术的使用促进了谷物生产和外部农业劳动力的就业。因此,本研究为制定促进市场营销和农村就业的政策提供了更好的目标。
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引用次数: 1
Feed Thy Neighbour: How Social Ties Shape Spillover Effects of Cash Transfers on Food Security and Nutrition 《供养邻居:社会关系如何影响现金转移对粮食安全和营养的溢出效应》
3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-27 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad004
Alessandro Carraro, Lucia Ferrone
Abstract Economic development in Sub Saharan African countries is strongly tied to households' ability to cope with exogenous events affecting their well-being. Using data from the Lesotho Child Grant Program (CGP) we provide evidence on the presence of any spillover effect of the program on non-eligible households living in treated villages and whether households' food security and nutrition are influenced by the presence of a particular network structure. We take advantage of information on each household's received and disbursed monetary transfers to build a set of indicators representing quantitatively and qualitatively the network architecture of each household. We find relevant spillover effects of the CGP on the food security and nutrition of non-eligible households living in treated villages and embedded in a social network. Geographical proximity seems to be strongly tied to positive spillover effects for food security and access to food.
撒哈拉以南非洲国家的经济发展与家庭应对影响其福祉的外部事件的能力密切相关。利用莱索托儿童补助计划(CGP)的数据,我们提供了证据,证明该计划对生活在接受治疗的村庄的不符合条件的家庭是否存在溢出效应,以及家庭的粮食安全和营养是否受到特定网络结构的影响。我们利用每个家庭收到和支付的货币转移的信息来建立一套指标,从数量和质量上代表每个家庭的网络架构。我们发现CGP对生活在接受治疗的村庄和嵌入社会网络的非合格家庭的粮食安全和营养产生了相关的溢出效应。地理邻近性似乎与粮食安全和获得粮食的积极溢出效应密切相关。
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引用次数: 0
Emigration and External Imbalances in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do Migrants' Skills Matter? 撒哈拉以南非洲的移民和外部失衡:移民的技能重要吗?
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-26 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad008
D. Coulibaly, Blaise Gnimassoun
The external deficits in SSA countries are a major concern and may be connected to emigration from these countries to advanced economies. According to the life cycle theory, by decreasing labour force, emigration induces a fall in savings and a deterioration in the external balance in the countries of origin. Migrants' remittances may dampen or even counterbalance this effect, depending on migrants' skills that matter for their propensity to remit. Empirical investigation for SSA countries over the period 1990–2014 shows that low-skilled emigration improves the current account balance, whereas high-skilled emigration worsens it because highly skilled emigrants have higher saving potential but tend to remit less than low-skilled ones. Therefore, incentives for the financing of home economies by skilled migrants would be beneficial.
撒哈拉以南非洲国家的对外赤字是一个主要问题,可能与这些国家向发达经济体移民有关。根据生命周期理论,由于劳动力减少,移民导致原籍国储蓄下降和外部平衡恶化。移民的汇款可能会抑制甚至抵消这种影响,这取决于移民的技能,而这些技能对他们的汇款倾向至关重要。1990-2014年期间对撒哈拉以南非洲国家的实证调查表明,低技能移民改善了经常账户余额,而高技能移民则使其恶化,因为高技能移民有更高的储蓄潜力,但汇款往往比低技能移民少。因此,鼓励技术移民为本国经济提供资金将是有益的。
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引用次数: 0
Minimum Wages and Labour Supply in an Emerging Market: The Case of Mauritius 新兴市场的最低工资与劳动力供给:以毛里求斯为例
3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-25 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad005
Zaakhir Asmal, Haroon Bhorat, Ravi Kanbur, Marco Ranzani, Pierella Paci
Abstract This paper investigates the effect of multiple minimum wages, known as remuneration orders, on employment and working hours in Mauritius. Using data between 2005 and 2014, the analysis finds no effect on overall employment and different effects in sign for men and women. The minimum wage has a positive long-term effect on women's employment (0.141) and a negative effect on male employment (−0.097). The estimated employment elasticity magnitudes for men and women are within the range of elasticities found in previous studies of employment effects of minimum wages in low- and middle-income countries. The aggregate employment effect of the minimum wage in Mauritius is not significant, due to the larger share of men who are employed. The extensive margin effect of minimum wages is also associated with a 2.2% increase in average working hours for men but a 1.3% decline in average working hours for women in the covered sector. In the uncovered sector, the significant positive effect along the intensive margin, estimated at 4.6%, is driven by changes in labour supply among men.
摘要本文调查了多重最低工资,即薪酬令,对毛里求斯就业和工作时间的影响。使用2005年至2014年的数据,分析发现对整体就业没有影响,对男性和女性的影响有所不同。最低工资对妇女就业有积极的长期影响(0.141),对男性就业有消极影响(- 0.097)。估计的男性和女性就业弹性幅度在以前对低收入和中等收入国家最低工资的就业影响的研究中发现的弹性范围内。在毛里求斯,最低工资的总体就业效应并不显著,因为受雇的男性比例较大。最低工资的广泛边际效应还与男性平均工作时间增加2.2%而女性平均工作时间下降1.3%有关。在未覆盖的部门,密集边际的显著积极影响,估计为4.6%,是由男性劳动力供应的变化驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of African Economies
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