Appropriately guided and implemented government interventions help in achieving the desired outcome. They complement the household budget in meeting their basic needs, allowing them to move to a higher satisfaction level. The study looks at the nexus between household poverty and government strategies to stem it. The analysis uses various approaches including the binary and polychotomous logit models to see who is likely to benefit from the interventions, the Tobit model to measure the intensity in closing poverty gap and simulations to capture the impact and cost implications of interventions. While several interventions were introduced, results reveal implementation gaps where the deserving households are not comprehensively covered; the extremely poor have lower probability of uptake of the interventions. Thus, more targeted coverage is necessary in closing the poverty gap.
{"title":"Does the Poverty Level Minimum Basket Adequately Inform the Scope of Governments' Poverty Reduction Strategies?","authors":"R. Ngugi, B. Munga, Phares P Kirii, E. Onsomu","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac051","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Appropriately guided and implemented government interventions help in achieving the desired outcome. They complement the household budget in meeting their basic needs, allowing them to move to a higher satisfaction level. The study looks at the nexus between household poverty and government strategies to stem it. The analysis uses various approaches including the binary and polychotomous logit models to see who is likely to benefit from the interventions, the Tobit model to measure the intensity in closing poverty gap and simulations to capture the impact and cost implications of interventions. While several interventions were introduced, results reveal implementation gaps where the deserving households are not comprehensively covered; the extremely poor have lower probability of uptake of the interventions. Thus, more targeted coverage is necessary in closing the poverty gap.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48373142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite the importance of labour markets in shaping inequalities, the literature linking the informal sector to income inequalities is scarce. In this article, we examine this linkage on the African continent, where informality has both been deemed a development curse, and lauded as a potential engine for growth. Recognising a multitude of mechanisms affecting both concepts, we investigate the link in two settings: using a panel of country data ranging from 1991 to 2015, and using a series of surveys on the informal sector from seven West African capitals. Focusing on the prism of social redistribution, we find evidence that a smaller informal sector has marginally contributed to reducing income inequalities but find no evidence that social redistribution has played a role in this evolution.
{"title":"Informality and Inequality: The African Case","authors":"A. David, Y. Diallo, B. Nilsson","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac052","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Despite the importance of labour markets in shaping inequalities, the literature linking the informal sector to income inequalities is scarce. In this article, we examine this linkage on the African continent, where informality has both been deemed a development curse, and lauded as a potential engine for growth. Recognising a multitude of mechanisms affecting both concepts, we investigate the link in two settings: using a panel of country data ranging from 1991 to 2015, and using a series of surveys on the informal sector from seven West African capitals. Focusing on the prism of social redistribution, we find evidence that a smaller informal sector has marginally contributed to reducing income inequalities but find no evidence that social redistribution has played a role in this evolution.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43203583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kibrom A Abay, Nishant Yonzan, Sikandra Kurdi, Kibrom Tafere
Abstract Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty in Africa has been as difficult as predicting the path of the pandemic, mainly due to data limitations. The advent of new data sources, including national accounts and phone survey data, provides an opportunity for a thorough reassessment of the impact of the pandemic and the subsequent expansion of social protection systems on the evolution of poverty in Africa. In this paper, we combine per capita GDP growth from national accounts with data from High-Frequency Phone Surveys for several countries to estimate the net impact of the pandemic on poverty. We find that the pandemic has increased poverty in Africa by 1.5 to 1.7 percentage points in 2020, relatively smaller than early estimates and projections. We also find that countries affected by Fragility, Conflict and Violence experienced the greatest increases in poverty, about 2.1 percentage points in 2020. Furthermore, we assess and synthesize empirical evidence on the role that social protection systems played in mitigating the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis in Africa. We review social protection responses in various African countries, mainly focusing on the impact of these programs and effectiveness of targeting systems. Although the evidence base on the protective role of social protection programs during the pandemic remains scarce, we highlight important findings on the impacts of these programs while also uncovering some vulnerabilities in social protection programming in Africa. We finally draw important lessons related to the delivery, targeting and impact of various social protection programs launched in Africa in response to the pandemic.
{"title":"Revisiting Poverty Trends and the Role of Social Protection Systems in Africa during the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Kibrom A Abay, Nishant Yonzan, Sikandra Kurdi, Kibrom Tafere","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac041","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty in Africa has been as difficult as predicting the path of the pandemic, mainly due to data limitations. The advent of new data sources, including national accounts and phone survey data, provides an opportunity for a thorough reassessment of the impact of the pandemic and the subsequent expansion of social protection systems on the evolution of poverty in Africa. In this paper, we combine per capita GDP growth from national accounts with data from High-Frequency Phone Surveys for several countries to estimate the net impact of the pandemic on poverty. We find that the pandemic has increased poverty in Africa by 1.5 to 1.7 percentage points in 2020, relatively smaller than early estimates and projections. We also find that countries affected by Fragility, Conflict and Violence experienced the greatest increases in poverty, about 2.1 percentage points in 2020. Furthermore, we assess and synthesize empirical evidence on the role that social protection systems played in mitigating the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis in Africa. We review social protection responses in various African countries, mainly focusing on the impact of these programs and effectiveness of targeting systems. Although the evidence base on the protective role of social protection programs during the pandemic remains scarce, we highlight important findings on the impacts of these programs while also uncovering some vulnerabilities in social protection programming in Africa. We finally draw important lessons related to the delivery, targeting and impact of various social protection programs launched in Africa in response to the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":"9 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134987187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper looks at the nexus between growth, poverty, inequality and redistribution in Africa, using Kenya as a case study. The existing literature shows a strong causal link from growth to poverty reduction. This link is the basis for the pro-poor poverty reduction strategy. There is evidence from the AERC studies that, poverty reduction in a given period is associated with higher growth rates in successive periods that are inequality-reducing and conceptually long lasting. This virtuous spiral of poverty reduction, higher growth and less inequality over time, is the basis for the pro-growth poverty reduction strategy that has recently been emphasized in the literature ( Thorbecke and Ouyang, 2022). The two poverty reduction strategies, a pro-poor strategy and a pro-growth poverty reduction one, complement each other, sustaining household escapes from poverty over time. The paper provides evidence from Kenya showing that human capital formation is the key mechanism underlying the virtuous spiral of lower poverty, higher growth and less inequality as the economy progresses through time. A perspective on robustness of the virtuous spiral in the context of COVID-19 and other pandemics is offered in the concluding section of the paper.
{"title":"Poverty Reduction through Growth, Redistribution and Social Inclusion in Times of COVID-19: Kenyan Evidence on the Underlying Mechanisms","authors":"G. Mwabu","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac042","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The paper looks at the nexus between growth, poverty, inequality and redistribution in Africa, using Kenya as a case study. The existing literature shows a strong causal link from growth to poverty reduction. This link is the basis for the pro-poor poverty reduction strategy. There is evidence from the AERC studies that, poverty reduction in a given period is associated with higher growth rates in successive periods that are inequality-reducing and conceptually long lasting. This virtuous spiral of poverty reduction, higher growth and less inequality over time, is the basis for the pro-growth poverty reduction strategy that has recently been emphasized in the literature ( Thorbecke and Ouyang, 2022). The two poverty reduction strategies, a pro-poor strategy and a pro-growth poverty reduction one, complement each other, sustaining household escapes from poverty over time. The paper provides evidence from Kenya showing that human capital formation is the key mechanism underlying the virtuous spiral of lower poverty, higher growth and less inequality as the economy progresses through time. A perspective on robustness of the virtuous spiral in the context of COVID-19 and other pandemics is offered in the concluding section of the paper.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48575510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Many African countries struggle to collect an adequate amount of tax revenue to support needed investments in public services. This paper examines how African countries may take advantage of recent advances in technology to improve tax administration. It provides an overview of the potential and challenges of different tax categories in Africa: consumption taxes, real estate taxes, trade taxes and income taxes. It then describes the ways in which technology solutions may be deployed to address these challenges by helping to identify the tax base, monitor compliance and facilitate compliance. Lastly, it provides insights from interviews with senior tax administrators across the continent on their practical experiences in adopting technology for taxation.
{"title":"Increasing Tax Collection in African Countries: The Role of Information Technology","authors":"Oyebola Okunogbe, Fabrizio Santoro","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac036","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many African countries struggle to collect an adequate amount of tax revenue to support needed investments in public services. This paper examines how African countries may take advantage of recent advances in technology to improve tax administration. It provides an overview of the potential and challenges of different tax categories in Africa: consumption taxes, real estate taxes, trade taxes and income taxes. It then describes the ways in which technology solutions may be deployed to address these challenges by helping to identify the tax base, monitor compliance and facilitate compliance. Lastly, it provides insights from interviews with senior tax administrators across the continent on their practical experiences in adopting technology for taxation.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136051728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Despite the past centuries' economic setbacks and challenges, are there reasons for optimism about Africa's economic prospects? We provide a conceptual framework and empirical evidence that show how the nature of African society has led to three sets of unrecognised ‘latent assets.’ First, success in African society is talent driven and Africa has experienced high levels of perceived and actual social mobility. A society where talented individuals rise to the top and optimism prevails is an excellent basis for entrepreneurship and innovation. Second, Africans, like westerners who built the world's most successful effective states, are highly sceptical of authority and attuned to the abuse of power. We argue that these attitudes can be a critical basis for building better institutions. Third, Africa is ‘cosmopolitan.’ Africans are the most multilingual people in the world, have high levels of religious tolerance and are welcoming to strangers. The experience of navigating cultural and linguistic diversity sets Africans up for success in a globalised world.
{"title":"Africa's Latent Assets","authors":"Soeren J Henn, James A Robinson","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac034","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite the past centuries' economic setbacks and challenges, are there reasons for optimism about Africa's economic prospects? We provide a conceptual framework and empirical evidence that show how the nature of African society has led to three sets of unrecognised ‘latent assets.’ First, success in African society is talent driven and Africa has experienced high levels of perceived and actual social mobility. A society where talented individuals rise to the top and optimism prevails is an excellent basis for entrepreneurship and innovation. Second, Africans, like westerners who built the world's most successful effective states, are highly sceptical of authority and attuned to the abuse of power. We argue that these attitudes can be a critical basis for building better institutions. Third, Africa is ‘cosmopolitan.’ Africans are the most multilingual people in the world, have high levels of religious tolerance and are welcoming to strangers. The experience of navigating cultural and linguistic diversity sets Africans up for success in a globalised world.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136246589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In this issue of the Journal of African Economies we publish two papers concerned with the firm size distribution of manufacturing firms in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). One paper examines the changes in the firm size distribution for Ghana, Teal (this issue), the other for Ethiopia, Azmete et al. (this issue). This note is intended to introduce, and compare, the findings of these two papers and to place those findings in the wider policy debate as to what explains the performance of the manufacturing sector in SSA.
{"title":"What Explains the Firm Size Distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa and Why Does It Matter?","authors":"Francis Teal","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this issue of the Journal of African Economies we publish two papers concerned with the firm size distribution of manufacturing firms in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). One paper examines the changes in the firm size distribution for Ghana, Teal (this issue), the other for Ethiopia, Azmete et al. (this issue). This note is intended to introduce, and compare, the findings of these two papers and to place those findings in the wider policy debate as to what explains the performance of the manufacturing sector in SSA.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136390097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Plenary Theme: COVID-19 and Public Finance in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities","authors":"N. Ndung’u, S. Odhiambo, A. Shimeles","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac056","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45364817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Despite the low levels of taxation and public good provision in Africa, I provide evidence that a large proportion of Africans prefer lower taxation and fewer public goods. This cannot be explained by standard arguments about problems of accountability, governance or state capacity. Instead, I argue that it reflects deeply seated ideas about the nature of the state and its potential threats to the autonomy of society. I show the historic social contracts in Africa rarely featured taxation and kept the state to limited jurisdictions. These social contracts have in many ways reproduced themselves and influence the way Africa is governed today.
{"title":"Tax Aversion and the Social Contract in Africa","authors":"James A Robinson","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac035","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite the low levels of taxation and public good provision in Africa, I provide evidence that a large proportion of Africans prefer lower taxation and fewer public goods. This cannot be explained by standard arguments about problems of accountability, governance or state capacity. Instead, I argue that it reflects deeply seated ideas about the nature of the state and its potential threats to the autonomy of society. I show the historic social contracts in Africa rarely featured taxation and kept the state to limited jurisdictions. These social contracts have in many ways reproduced themselves and influence the way Africa is governed today.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136246588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper examines the impact of exposure to weather events during gestation on birth weight and anthropometric health of a cohort of children. We explore birth records for the cohort of children born between 2003 and 2013 in Sierra Leone using Demographic Health Surveys linked to temporal variation of rainfall and temperature patterns. We find that in utero droughts (or abnormally low precipitation levels) increase the prevalence of low birth weight with larger effects among boys. However, the effects of those same in utero shocks on the prevalence of stunting up to 59 months later are smaller for boys than for girls. The gender difference in estimated impacts from birth to anthropometric health is attributed to food consumption patterns that favour boys. Our results have policy implications for tracking health outcomes during early childhood using birth and anthropometric health, especially by gender.
{"title":"Weather Shocks, Birth and Early Life Health: Evidence of Different Gender Impacts","authors":"Olukorede Abiona","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac031","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the impact of exposure to weather events during gestation on birth weight and anthropometric health of a cohort of children. We explore birth records for the cohort of children born between 2003 and 2013 in Sierra Leone using Demographic Health Surveys linked to temporal variation of rainfall and temperature patterns. We find that in utero droughts (or abnormally low precipitation levels) increase the prevalence of low birth weight with larger effects among boys. However, the effects of those same in utero shocks on the prevalence of stunting up to 59 months later are smaller for boys than for girls. The gender difference in estimated impacts from birth to anthropometric health is attributed to food consumption patterns that favour boys. Our results have policy implications for tracking health outcomes during early childhood using birth and anthropometric health, especially by gender.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":"203 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135694077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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